Course : STAT6171 – Basic Statistics
Discrete Probability Distributions
Session 5-6
Learning Objectives
1. Describe the basic concepts of descriptive and
inferential statistics.
2. Calculate the statistical measurement which related to
descriptive and inferential statistics.
3. Use Microsoft Excel to do data analysis.
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The Probability Distribution
for a Discrete Variable
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A probability distribution for a discrete random
variable is a mutually exclusive listing of all possible
numerical outcomes for that variable such that a
particular probability of occurence is associated with
each outcome.
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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
The following table contains the probability distribution for the number of
traffic accidents daily in a small town:
a. Compute the mean number of accidents per day.
b. Compute the standard deviation.
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BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
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Properties of the Binomial Distribution
• The sample consists of a fixed number of observations, n.
• Each observation is classified into one of two mutually exclusive
and collectivelyexhaustive categories.
• The probability of an observation being classified as the event of
interest, π, is constant
• from observation to observation. Thus, the probability of an
observation being classified as not being the event of interest, 1
- π, is constant over all observations.
• The value of any observation is independent of the value of any
other observation.
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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability
that there are three tagged order forms in the sample of four?
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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability
that there are three or more (i.e., at least three) tagged order forms
in the sample of four?
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Thus, the probability of at least three tagged order forms is
There is a 0.37% chance that there will be at least three tagged
order forms in a sample of four.
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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability
that there are less than three tagged order forms in the sample of
four?
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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
A student is taking a multiple-choice exam in which each question has four
choices. Assume that the student has no knowledge of the correct answers
to any of the questions. She has decided on a strategy in which she will
place four balls (marked A, B, C, and D) into a box. She randomly selects
one ball for each question and replaces the ball in the box. The marking on
the ball will determine her answer to the question. There are five multiple-
choice questions on the exam.
What is the probability that she will get
a. five questions correct?
b. at least four questions correct?
c. no questions correct?
d. no more than two questions correct?
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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
A manufacturing company regularly conducts quality control
checks at specified periods on the products it manufactures.
Historically, the failure rate for LED light bulbs that the company
manufactures is 5%. Suppose a random sample of 10 LED light
bulbs is selected. What is the probability that
a. none of the LED light bulbs are defective?
b. exactly one of the LED light bulbs is defective?
c. two or fewer of the LED light bulbs are defective?
d. three or more of the LED light bulbs are defective?
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POISSON DISTRIBUTION
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You can use the Poisson distribution to calculate probabilities in situations such as
these if the following properties hold:
• You are interested in counting the number of times a particular event occurs in a given
area of opportunity. The area of opportunity is defined by time, length, surface area,
and so forth.
• The probability that an event occurs in a given area of opportunity is the same for all
the areas of opportunity.
• The number of events that occur in one area of opportunity is independent of the
number of events that occur in any other area of opportunity.
• The probability that two or more events will occur in an area of opportunity
approaches zero as the area of opportunity becomes smaller.
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The number of work-related injuries per month in a manufacturing
plant is known to follow a Poisson distribution, with a mean of 2.5
work-related injuries a month. What is the probability that in a
given month, no work-related injuries occur? That at least one
work-related injury occurs?
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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
Assume that the number of new visitors to a website in one minute
is distributed as a Poisson variable. The mean number of new
visitors to the website is 4.0 per minute. What is the probability
that in any given minute
a. zero new visitors will arrive at the website?
b. exactly one new visitor will arrive at the website?
c. two or more new visitors will arrive at the website?
d. fewer than three new visitors will arrive at the website?
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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
The quality control manager of Marilyn’s Cookies is inspecting a batch
of chocolate-chip cookies that has just been baked. If the production
process is in control, the mean number of chocolate-chip parts per
cookie is 6.0. What is the probability that in any particular cookie being
inspected
a. fewer than five chocolate-chip parts will be found?
b. exactly five chocolate-chip parts will be found?
c. five or more chocolate-chip parts will be found?
d. either four or five chocolate-chip parts will be found?
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HYPERGEOMETRIC DISTRIBUTION
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Formula :
Bina Nusantara
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APPLYING THE CONCEPTS
Refer to Problem 5.40. In the same time period, 24% of the
consumers registering a bank account and service compliant
cited “deposit and withdrawal” as the type of complaint; these are
issues such as transaction holds and unauthorized transactions.
a. What is the expected value, or mean, of the binomial
distribution?
b. What is the standard deviation of the binomial distribution?
c. What is the probability that none of the 20 consumers cited
“deposit and withdrawal” as the type of complaint?
d. What is the probability that no more than 2 of the consumers
cited “deposit and withdrawal” as the type of complaint?
e. What is the probability that 3 or more of the consumers cited
“deposit and withdrawal” as the type of complaint?
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EXCEL GUIDE
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In insert function, there are some distribution function that
you can use in solving problem.
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If the likelihood of a tagged order form is 0.1, what is the probability
that there are three tagged order forms in the sample of four?
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Insert function – BINOM.DIST - OK
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The number of work-related injuries per month in a manufacturing
plant is known to follow a Poisson distribution, with a mean of 2.5
work-related injuries a month. What is the probability that in a
given month, no work-related injuries occur? That at least one
work-related injury occurs?
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Insert function – POISSON.DIST - OK
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Insert function – HYPGEOM.DIST - OK
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David M. Levine, David F. Stephan, Kathryn A. Szabat. Statistics for
Managers using Microsoft Excel. Pearson, 8th Edition.
Thank You
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