Finals Transpo

Traffic DEMAND FORECASTING
CE 4211  MODULE 4
PART 1
MODULE 4 : TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING
TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

▪TRIP
▪ a one-way person movement by mechanized mode of transportation,
having two trip ends (origin and destination)
TYPES:
▪ Homebased trips
▪ One end of trip is at home of trip maker
▪ Non-Homebased trips
▪ Neither end of trip are at the home of trip maker
2
TERMINOLOGIES
▪TRIP ENDS
▪Production/generation or attraction
▪Trip Productions
▪Home end of a homebased trip
▪Origin end of a non-homebased trip
▪ Trip Attractions
▪Non-home end of homebased trip
▪Destination end of non-home end of homebased trip
▪Total productions must be equal to total attractions

3
TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

▪ allows engineer to predict volume of traffic that will use a given
transportation element in the future
▪Existing highway
▪Potential light – rail route
FOUR STEP FORECASTING MODEL

▪ Most common and widely used model
▪ Necessary socio-economic indicators may affect travel demand
(population, income, vehicles, etc.)
▪ As the name implies, follows 4 sub-models (steps)
4
SUB-MODELS (STEPS)
FOUR-STEP FORECASTING MODEL
– Estimates total number and types of trips originating and

terminating in areas/zones
– computes number of trips between one zone and all other
– percentage of travel of particular transportation mode
– Concerned with the selection of routes/path between origins and

destinations in a transportation network
5
Trip generation and attraction

Origin – destination table (od matrix)
▪Used for a systematic analysis and easier presentation of trip generation

and attraction
▪Simply shows the trips from one zone to another within the given study
area
▪TERMS:
Oi = trip generated from zone i
= trip generation
Dj = trips attracted to zone j
= trip attraction
T = trip production
= defined by either Oi or Dj
6

▪area of study is divided into number of zones
▪ZONES TYPES:
▪ INTERNAL ZONES
▪Zones within the study area defined by political and/or
administrative boundaries
▪ may correspond to a barangay, town or city based on the scope of
study
▪ EXTERNAL ZONES
▪ zones outside the study area which may GREATLY affect trip
patterns
7

DESTINATION
Σ
1 2 3 … j … n-1 n
# of trips from
1 O1
zone 1
2 O2
ORIGIN
… …
i Tij Oi
… … # of trips from zone i
n-1 On-1 to zone j
n On
Σ D1 D2 … Dj … Dn-1 Dn T Trip Production
# of trips attracted to zone 2

8

Example 1
The given table is an OD matrix for area of study composed of zones 1, 2, 3 and 4.
Determine the following:
DESTINATION (a) trip generation of zone 1; (a) O1 = 122
ZONE Σ
1 2 3 4 (b) trip generation of zone 3; (b) O3 = 99
1 11 23 88 122 (c) trip attractions of zone 2; (c) D2 = 31
(d) trip attractions of zone 4; (d) D4 = 119
ORIGIN
2 4 18 27 49
3 93 2 4 99 (e) trips from zone 2 to 4; (e) T24 =27
4 19 18 2 39
(f) trips from zone 4 to 2; (f) T42 = 18
(g) trips from zone 3 to 1; (g) T31 = 93
Σ 116 31 43 119 309
(h) total trip production for the (h) T = 309
area of study.
9

a. Growth factor method
▪ number of trips are assumed to be influenced by several variables such

as population (P), income (I), vehicle ownership (V), etc..
▪ future values of variables are estimated statistically, where future trips
may be based on the growth rates of variables
𝑻𝒊’ = 𝑻𝒊 𝒙 𝑭𝒊
Where:
Fi = growth factor = future − present ratio
P i ’ Vi ’ Ii ’
Fi = × ×
P i Vi Ii
▪All prime values are future values
10

Example 1 ZONE 1 2 3 Oi
Trips originating from zone 1, 2 and 3 of a
1 20 30 28 78
study area are 78, 92 and 82 respectively.
Those terminating at zones 1, 2 and 3 are 82, 2 36 32 24 92
96, and 74 respectively. If the growth factor 3 26 34 22 82
is given as 1.2 and the base year trip matrix is dj 82 96 74 252
given, find the expected origin-constrained
growth trip table ZONE 1 2 3 Oi
Solution: 1
Just multiply the growth factor 1.2 to
2
each of the individual inter-zonal trips
3
dj
11

Example 2
A zone is composed of 275 households with car and 275 households without car.
The average trip generation rates for each household group is 5.0 and 2.5 trips per
day respectively. Assuming that in the future, all households will own a car, find the
growth factor and future trips of the zone. Assume the population and income
remains constant overtime.
Given:
Present Future Trip rates
No car 275 0 2.5
550 (all
Own car 275 households will 5.0
own a car)
12

Solution:
P’ V’ I’
Growth factor, F = i × i × i , This means that future trip will have
Pi Vi Ii
population and income are constant, different trip rate.
Vi’ 550
F= = = 2.0 Intuitively thinking, trip rates will
Vi 275
Current trip rate, remain in the future the same,

T = 275 × 5 + 275 × 2.5
trips THEREFORE:
T = 2062.5
day (actual)Future trip rate,
Future trip rate,
𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠
𝑇 ′ = 𝑇 × 𝐹 = 2 2062.5 𝑇 ′ = 550(5) = 2750
𝑑𝑎𝑦
𝑇′ = 4125
𝑑𝑎𝑦
13

From example 2,
it can be concluded that actual trips generated are much lower than computed trips
from growth factor method.
Therefore,
Growth factor models are normally used to predict EXTERNAL trips where no other
methods available
(For INTERNAL trips, regression Models are more suitable)
14

Example 3
A zone has a household population of 400 consisting of 200 households with no
cars, 150 with 1 car and the remaining with 2 or more cars.
The trips generated by each household is 2.0, 2.5 and 1.5 respectively.
Assume population and income constant
Determine the future trips for each situation:
a. each household will own an additional one car,
b. population is decreased from 3500 to 2000, income is the same
c. income increases from 300 to 350, population is the same
d. b and c occurs
15

Solution:
# of Trip V′
Present Future a) Growth factor, F =
cars rates V
None 200 0 2.0 F= = 2.0

Current trip rate, T
1 150 200 2.5 T = 200 × 2 + 150 × 2.5 + 50 × 1.5
trips
T = 850
2 or day
50 200 1.5
more Future trip rate, T ′ = 2 850 = 1700
trips
day
actual Future trip rate, T ′

T ′ = 0 × 2 + 200 × 2.5 + 200 × 1.5 = 800
𝑑𝑎𝑦
16

P′ V′ I′ V′ P′ I′ V′
b)Growth factor, F = × c)Growth factor, F = × d)F = × ×
P V I V P I V
2000 400 350 400 2000 350 400
F= × F= × F= × ×
3500 200 300 200 3500 300 200
F = 1.143 F = 2.333 F = 1.333
Future trip rate, T’ Future trip rate, T’ Future trip rate, T’

T ′ = 1.143 850 T ′ = 2.333 850 T ′ = 1.333 850
trips trips
T′ = 971.428
trips T ′ = 1983.05 ′
T = 1133.05
day day day
17

Example 4 ZONE LAND USE PRESENT AREA PRESENT TRIPS

A survey is made of the present A Commercial 780 2808
condition for various land uses, B Manufacturing 1520 2432
producing the following data, C Service 915 2562
estimate the trips per unit are D Residential 610 2562
land use.
Solution: ZONE FUTURE AREA TRIP RATE FUTURE TRIP

A 810 2808/780 = 3.6*810 =
B 1500 2432/1520= 1.6*1500 =
C 980 2562/915 = 2.8*980 =
D 1120 2562/610 = 4.2*1120 =
18

B. Category analysis
▪ also known as cross – classification method
▪separates all households into categories classified according to a set of criteria

and assign a constant trip production rate to each category
▪Category may be one of the following:

▪ Household size
▪ # of owned cars/vehicles
▪ household income
▪etc..
19

Example 1
The number of cars is the main variable in determining trip making in a certain area.
Based on the present number of households and trip making activities, determine
the future trips. The given table shows the current conditions based on interviews.
Number of cars per house hold
1 2
Family Size
No. No. of Trips No. No. of Trips
Households Households
1 100 200 50 150
2 200 500 100 350
3 150 450 50 200
More than 3 40 200 10 70
20

Solution:
Average trip generation rate per category may be calculated by dividing the number
of trips by the number or households for each category
Number of cars per house hold

1 2
Family Size
# # Ave # # Ave
Households Trips Trip Households Trips Trip
1 100 200 2 50 150 3
2 200 500 2.5 100 350 3.5
3 150 450 3 50 200 4
More than 3 40 200 5 10 70 7
21

Solution: cont’d
For Future trips generations, multiply the average trip generation per category to
the future number of households
No. of cars per households

Family 1 2
Size Ave. Trip # Future Future Ave. Trip # Future Future
Gen Households Trips Gen Households Trips
1 2 200 400 3 150 450
2 2.5 250 625 3.5 200 700
3 3 100 300 4 100 400
>3 5 50 250 7 25 175
22

Example 2
Magnolia had the following land use activity statistics during morning peak hour in X777.
Estimate the total trip generation during that period.
Land Use Type/Activity Trip Rates trip
Person Trips
Type (unit) Quantity IN OUT Unit IN OUT production:
Residential (Dwelling units) 582 1.5 3 Per dwelling unit 873 1746 1746
Hotel (Rooms) 150 0.85 0.7 Per room 128 105
Hospital (Beds) 250 1.25 0.83 Per bed 313 208 Trip
Restaurant (establishments) at 25 attraction:
100 0.6 0.35 Per sq mtr 60 35 719
sq mtr
Guild – Merchant (establishments)
120 0.25 0.2 Per sq mtr 30 24
at 25 sq mtr
Guild – mage (establishments) at
250 0.75 0.3 Per sq mtr 188 75
100 sq mtr
23

Example 3
Calculate the total number of daily trips generated by 100 households with in a sample
urban zone. Use the information on trip rates and number of each household category
within.
Number of household within zone,
Daily trip rates per household
Total=100
Available cars per Available cars per
Household household Household household
Size Size
0 1 2+ 0 1 2+
1 1.04 1.85 2.15 1 4 23 2
2 2.02 3.10 3.8 2 2 14 14
3 2.6 3.4 4.0 3 1 9 14
4 3.8 4.8 6.4 4 0 5 7
5+ 4.2 5.2 6.4 5+ 0 1 4
24

Solution:
Simply multiply trip rate for each category by the number of household per number of
household in each category
Number of household
Daily trip rates per household
within zone, Total=100
Available cars per Available cars
Household household Household per household
Size Size Generated trips
0 1 2+ 0 1 2+
1 1.04 1.85 2.15 1 4 23 2 4.16 42.55 4.30
2 2.02 3.10 3.8 2 2 14 14 4.04 43.4 53.20
3 2.6 3.4 4.0 3 1 9 14 2.60 30.6 56.0
4 3.8 4.8 6.4 4 0 5 7 0 24.0 44.8
5+ 4.2 5.2 6.4 5+ 0 1 4 0 5.20 25.6
25

c. Regression analysis
▪General form for trip generation

𝐓𝐢 = 𝐟(𝐱𝟏, 𝐱𝟐, 𝐱𝟑, 𝐱𝟒, … 𝐱𝐢, … , 𝐱𝐤)
▪ trip models are usually linear, thus

𝐓𝐢 = 𝐚𝟎 + 𝐚𝟏𝐱𝟏 + 𝐚𝟐𝐱𝟐 + … 𝐚𝐢 𝐱𝐢 … + 𝐚𝐤𝐱𝐤)
where:
a = coefficient of regression equation, obtained from regression analysis
n σ xy − σ x σ y
b= 2 2
a = yത − bതx
nσx − σx
26

▪ trip rates are treated as continuous variables that can be negative

(unrealistic)
▪Different indices or dependent variables are normally considered that may
have influence on trip making
VARIABLES AFFECTING TRIP MAKING
INDICES
Population Daytime, residential, no. of workers, etc.
INDEPENDENT
VARIABLES
Land Use Land area by usage, floor area, etc.

Economy Retail sales, industrial production, etc.
Social Car ownership, household size, etc..
Activity
27

Example 1
The following model is compiled for shopping trips generated during the weekly peak hour
for this activity (5:30PM to 6:30PM on Fridays). The relationship is expressed as
𝑇𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 0.15 + 0.1𝑥1 + 0.01𝑥2 + 0.145𝑥3
Where:
T = total number of vehicle-based shopping x1=household size
trips per household in peak hour x2=monthly income of household (in PhP000’s)
x3=employment in neighborhood (in 00’s)
Calculate the trip rate for a household of 4 people with monthly income of PhP30000
within a neighborhood where 1000 people are employed
Solution:
x1=4 x2=30 x3=10
𝑇𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 0.15 + 0.1 4 + 0.01 30 + 0.145(100)
𝑇𝑠ℎ𝑜𝑝𝑝𝑖𝑛𝑔 = 2.3 𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒 𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑝𝑠
28

Example 2
The trip rate of a zone is explained by the household size from a field survey. It
was found that the household size are 1,2,3 and 4. the trip rates of the
corresponding household is shown . Fit a linear equation relating the trip rate and
household size
Household size (X)
1 2 3 4
Trips 1 2 4 6
per 2 4 5 7
day (y)
2 3 3 4
Σy 5 9 12 17
29

Solution: n = 12
Household
size (x) σ x = 3[1+2+3+4]=30
1 2 3 4 xy xത = 30
= 2.5
12
Trips 1 2 4 6 1 4 12 24
per σ y = 5 + 9 + 12 + 17 = 43
2 4 5 7 2 8 15 28
day (y)
2 3 3 4 2 6 9 16 yത =
43
= 3.58
12
Σy 5 9 12 17 5 18 36 68
σ xy = 5 + 18 + 36 + 68
n σ xy−(σ x σ y) 12 127 −(30)(43)
b= = = 1.3 σ xy = 127
n σ x2 −(σ x)2 12 90 −302
a = yത − bതx = 3.58 − 1.3(2.5) = 0.33 σ x 2 = 3 12 + 22 + 32 + 42

𝐲 = 𝟏. 𝟑𝐱 + 𝟎. 𝟑𝟑 σ x 2 = 90
30
PART 2
2. Trip distribution
▪Aims to determine from which zones the trip generations (Oi) are generated
and to which zones the trips attractions (Dj)are bound
▪ Methods:
1. Present Pattern Method 2. Synthetic Methods:
(Growth Factor Methods) ▪ Model Method/Gravity Model
▪Uniform factor method ▪ Tanner Model
▪Average factor method ▪ Intervening Opportunities Model
▪Detroit method ▪ Competing Opportunities Model
▪Fratar method
32
A. Present pattern method
▪Assumes that in the future, trip patterns will remain substantially the same as
present, but trip volumes will increase according to growth of generating and
attracting zones
1. UNIFORM FACTOR METHOD

▪ Also known as Constant Factor Method
▪ Assumes that all zones will increase in uniform manner and that existing
traffic pattern will be the same for future when growth is taken to
account
33
2. AVERAGE FACTOR METHOD

▪ Attempts to take into account the varying growth rates of trip-making
which can be expected in the differing zones of area of survey
▪ Average growth factor used refers to origin end and destination end
trip obtained for each zone as in constant factor method
3. DETROIT METHOD
▪ assumes trip distribution is proportional to growth rate of trip
generation
34
4. FRATAR METHOD
▪ introduced to overcome disadvantages of the constant factor and
average factor methods
▪Total trips for each zone are distributed to interzonal movements as a
first approximation, according to relative attractiveness of each
movement
▪future trips estimated for any zone is distributed to the movement
involving the zone in proportion to the existing trips between it and
other zone, and in proportion to expected growth of each zone
35
Disadvantages of the present pattern method:
▪Complete OD matrix is required
▪Change of land use is not considered

▪When present trip generation is zero, future trip generation is also zero
▪If there is error in current OD matrix, error is expanded with same rate
36
▪Equations:
▪Uniform Factor Method: ▪Detroit Method:
▪Average Factor Method: ▪Fratar Method
37
B. Synthetic methods
▪ Can be used not only to predict future trip distribution but also to synthesis
base-year flows
▪ Necessity to survey every individual cell in the trip matrix is obviated, cost
of data collection is reduced
1. MODEL METHOD/GRAVITY MODEL:

▪ Often patterned after Newton’s law of gravity
▪ Types:
▪ Basic type
▪ Bureau of Public Roads Type
▪ Vorhees type
38
a. Basic type
β
Tij = kOαi Dj f(dij)
Where:
k, a, b, g= coefficients
dij= trip resistance between zones i and j;
(may be in terms of time or distance)
Other forms of trip resistance function, dij:

1 − 𝛽𝑑𝑖𝑗 − 𝛽𝑑𝑖𝑗 −𝛾
;𝑒 ; 𝑑𝑖𝑗𝑒 ; 𝑑𝑖𝑗
𝛽 + 𝑑𝑖𝑗
39
b. Bureau of Public Roads Type

Djf dij kij
Tij = Oi
σ Djf dij kij
c. Vorhees type
▪ assumes that interchange of trips between zones is dependent upon
relative attraction between zones and spatial separation between as a
function of distance
▪Spatial separation function adjusts relative attraction of each zone for the
ability, desire or necessity of trip maker to overcome spatial separation
40
c. Vorhees type
▪The trip interchange is directly proportional to relative attraction
between zones and inversely proportional to the measure of spatial
separation
Djf dij
Tij = Oi
σ Djf dij
2. Tanner’s Model
▪ Suggests that the inverse of nth power, dijn in gravity model cannot
give valid estimates at both very small and very large distances
41
3. Opportunity Models
▪ Based on statistical theory of probability as theoretical foundation
▪ Intervening Opportunities model
▪ Competing Opportunities model
▪ General Formula:
𝑇𝑖𝑗 = 𝑂𝑖 𝑃𝐷𝑗
Where:
P = probability of trip terminating in zone j
42
3. Opportunity Models
a. Intervening Opportunities model
▪ Assumes that trip interchange is equal to the total trips emanating form
origin multiplied to the probability of that each trip will find an acceptable
terminal at the destination
▪ Also assumes that the probability is determined by two zonal characteristics:
destination size and order it is encountered from origin
b. Competing Opportunities model
▪ Adjusted probability of trip ending in a zone is the product of two
independent probabilities:
▪ trip being attracted to a zone
▪ trip finding a destination in that zone
43
Advantages Disadvantages
Reasoning is not clear, why
Trip resistance is considered human behavior is related to
Newton’s gravity law
Structure model is easy to Index of resistance is
understand arbitrary
Complete OD matrix is not Trip distribution with zone is
necessarily required difficult to treat
Trip distribution near zone
parts tend to be larger than
real values
44
▪Application of Vorhees type Gravity Model:

Trip Distribution of Production Trip Distribution of Attraction to
of zone i zone j
Where:
Fij = deterrence/resistance function= Cij –a
Cij = generalised cost of travel from i to j
= defined in terms of travel time, travel cost,
or travel distance
a = model parameter
45
GRAVITY MODEL
Fij= C/tij n
46
GRAVITY MODEL
47
GRAVITY MODEL
48
GRAVITY MODEL
49
GRAVITY MODEL
50
GRAVITY MODEL
51
GRAVITY MODEL
P𝑖 ∗ 𝐹𝑖𝑗 1 2 3 Sum
1 27.73 7.49 12.88 48.099
2 11.89 8.73 16.10 36.719
3 16.64 13.10 10.73 40.4733
52
PART 3
3. Modal split
▪Other names:
▪Mode ▪Modal share
▪Mode split ▪Mode share
▪ the percentage of travelers using a specific type/mode of transportation;

or the number of trips using the type of transportation
▪Choice may be done using either

BINARY or MULTIPLE choice
54
3. Modal split
TRIP
NON-MOTORIZED MOTORIZED
WALK BICYCLE PRIVATE PUBLIC
COMPANY RAIL
PERSONAL BUS
Example of binary choice
55
3. Modal split
▪GENERALIZED COST
▪Places costs on quantifiable and sometimes unquantifiable factors that
may be incurred during a trip using a specified mode
▪Travel Cost
▪Travel Time
▪Travel Distance
▪Level of Service may be included
Where: 𝐺𝐶 = 𝑐 + 𝑑𝑇
c = cost ; d = time value ; T=time incurred
56
3. Modal split
▪DISAGGREGATE CHOICE MODEL

▪Assumes that trip maker selects mode which provides most economic
utility
▪Total utility provided by mode option:
▪Models depending on distribution of 𝜀

▪Probit model (normal distribution of 𝜀
▪Logit model (distribution of 𝜀 is Weibull)
57
3. Modal split
▪Where:
um = total utility provided by mode option m
bm = mode specific parameter; relative attractiveness of different
travel modes within segment
aj = model parameter
zmj = set of travel characteristics of mode m, in terms of travel costs or
travel time
e = stochastic term which makes allowance for unspecifiable portion
of utility assumed to be random; variability in individual utilities around
average utility in segment
58
3. Modal split
▪PROBIT MODEL:
▪GENERAL EQUATION:
▪Assumes a normal distributed
𝑒 𝑢𝑚
errors in choices of transportation 𝑃𝑚 =
mode σ 𝑒 𝑢𝑚′
Where:
1
Pm = probability of mode m to be
𝑣𝑚 −𝑣𝑖 1 − 𝑢2 chosen
𝑃𝑚 = ‫׬‬−∞ 𝑒 2 𝑑𝑢
2𝜋
m’ = index over all modes included
in chosen set
▪LOGIT MODEL: ▪When only two choices for modes is
▪The probability that a trip maker given, equation is simplified into a
will select one mode option, m, is binary logit model
equal to the probability that the
1
option's utility is greater than the 𝑃1 =
utility of the other options 1 + 𝑒 𝑢2 −𝑢1
59
3. Modal split
Example 1:
For a particular zone pair, three modes of Assume the variable values are as
travel between the zones exist: shown in the table and that 1000
Private transport, bus, and urban rapid trips are made from the origin to
destination zone.
transit system.
Determine the number of trips made
by each mode.
Given that all trip-makers have access to
Use Logit Model
private transport and that the perceived
utility of a mode is given by: Mode
Variable values
tm, min cm,Php u’ m, min dm
um=-0.004tm – 0.005cm – 0.003u’ m+0.15dm Private 65 60 0 1
cm=travel cost in Pesos Bus 75 20 15 0

Where: u’m=waiting time in minutes Transit 25 30 5 0
tm= travel time in minutes dm=dummy variable
60
3. Modal split
FOUR-ST=EP FORECASTING MODEL
Sol’n:
Calculate for the utility for each mode: Variable values
um= - 0.004tm – 0.005cm – 0.003u’ m + 0.15dm tm, min cm,Php u’ m, min dm
uprivate = −0.004 65 – 0.005 60 – 0.003 0 + 0.15 1 = −𝟎. 𝟒𝟏 65 60 0 1

ubus = −0.004(75) – 0.005(20) – 0.003(15) + 0.15(0) = −𝟎. 𝟒𝟒𝟓 75 20 15 0
utransit = −0.004 25 – 0.005 30 – 0.003 5 + 0.15 0 = −𝟎. 𝟐𝟔𝟓 25 30 5 0
Compute for probabilities using logit model:

Mode 𝐮𝐦 𝐞𝐮𝐦 𝐏𝐦 𝐓𝐫𝐢𝐩 𝐌𝐚𝐤𝐞𝐫𝐬
𝑢 Private -0.41 0.664 0.664/2.072 = 0.320 320

𝑒 𝑚
𝑃𝑚 = Bus -0.445 0.641 0.641/2.072 = 0.309 309
σ 𝑒 𝑢𝑚′
Transit -0.265 0.767 0.767/2.072 = 0.370 370
Total 2.072 σ = 0.999≈1 ≈1000
61
3. Modal split
Example 2:
Use of a logit model to determine the probabilities of a group of 5000 work
commuters choosing between three modes of travel during morning peak hour:
▪Private car ▪Bus ▪Light Rail
The utility function s are estimated using the following:
▪UC = 7 – 0.2C – 0.03T
▪UB = 2 – 0.2C – 0.03T
▪ULR = 4 – 0.2C – 0.03T
Where: C = cost in Php and T = travel time in minutes
▪For all workers:
Driving cost is Php 60 with 20 minutes travel time
Bus fare is at Php 20 with 40 minutes travel time
Rail fare is at Php 38 with 25 minutes travel time
62
3. Modal split
▪Solution:
▪Compute for utility functions for each mode
▪UC = 7 – 0.2(C) – 0.03(T) = -5.6 Driving cost is Php 60 with 20 minutes travel time
▪UB = 2 – 0.2(C) – 0.03(T) = -3.2 Bus fare is at Php 20 with 40 minutes travel time
▪ULR= 4 – 0.2(C) – 0.03(T) =-4.35 Rail fare is at Php 38 with 25 minutes travel time
MODE Um eUm Pm Pm,% # workers

CAR -5.6 0.0037 0.0645 6.45 323
BUS -3.2 0.0408 0.7108 71.08 3554
LIGHT RAIL -4.35 0.0129 0.2247 22.47 1123
SUM 0.0574 1.00 100.00 5000
Multiply Pm to total number of workers
63
PART 4
4. Traffic assignment
▪Also known as Route Assignment, Route Choice

▪Assigns the precise traffic flow to specific routes
▪Requires the construction of mathematical relationship linking travel time to
traffic flow along the route
▪SIMPLE approach:
▪Assumes a linear relationship between travel time and speed (assuming
free flow condition)
▪Travel time is assumed independent of volume
▪COMPLEX approach:
▪Assumes a parabolic speed-flow relation
▪Time increases more quickly as traffic flow reaches its capacity
▪Travel time is dependent of volume
65
▪Assumptions:
1. Trip makers choose a route connecting origin and destination on the
shortest travel time
2. Trip makers know the travel times on all available routes between
origin and destination
▪ METHODS:
1. USER EQUILIBRIUM
- Apply WARDROP’S PRINCIPLE
- or All-or-Nothing algorithm
2. SYSTEM OPTIMIZATION
𝑆 𝑥 = ෍ 𝑥𝑛 𝑡𝑛 (𝑥𝑛 )
66
1. WARDROP’S PRINCIPLE
▪ individuals cannot improve time by unilaterally changing routes assuming
that transportation network is at equilibrium,
▪ Travel time between specified origin and destination on all used routes is
the same and is less than or equal to the travel time that would be
experienced by a traveler on any unused route
(example: kahit Magsaysay or Bonifacio piliin mo, dadating ka pa rin sa School say 5minutes at late ka
parin; or traffic sa Bonifacio kaya nag-Magsaysay ka, pero same time parin dating mo)
▪ (ALL OR NOTHING)
▪ If travel time is assumed independent of volume, all trips are assigned to
route of minimum time/cost
67
Example 1:
Two routes connect a city and a barangay. During peak hour morning commute, a total of
4500 vehicles travel using route 1 and 2
Speed, mph Distance Time
Route 1 60 6 miles 6 min
Route 2 45 3 miles 4 min
Where:
t1= travel time on route 1 ; t2= travel time on route 2
Note:
Travel time on route 1 increases 2minutes for every additional 500 vehicles added
Travel time on route 2 increases with the square of the number of vehicles expressed in
thousands of vehicles per hour.
Determine travel times by user equilibrium and system optimization
68
Solution
a)
Let x1= vehicles choosing route 1 (in thousands of vph)
x2=vehicles choosing route 2 (in thousands of vph)
Route 1(x1) Equations:

Route 2(x2) 4.5 = 𝑥1 + 𝑥2
4500 veh O D
2
𝑡1 = 6 + 1000 𝑥1 = 6 + 4𝑥1
500𝑣𝑒ℎ
𝑡2 = 4 + 𝑥 22
69
a) Apply all or nothing

Assume all traffic choose route 1 Assume all traffic choose route 2
x1 = 4.5 and x2 = 0 x1 = 0 and x2 = 4.5
t1 = 6 + 4 4.5 t1 = 6 + 4(0)
t1 = 24 minutes t1 = 6 minutes
t2 = 4 + 02 t2 = 4 + (4.5)2
t2 = 4 minutes t2 = 24.25 minutes
∴ users will choose route 2 ∴ users will choose route 1
Since assumptions uses either of the two routes, then t1=t2
6 + 4𝑥1 = 4 + 𝑥22 Substitute x1 in t1 = 6 + 4𝑥1

𝑏𝑢𝑡 𝑥1 + 𝑥2 = 4.5 Substitute x2 in t2 = 4 + 𝑥22
6 + 4 4.5 − 𝑥2 = 4 + 𝑥22
𝑥2 = 2.9 = 2900 𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑠 𝒕𝟏 = 𝒕𝟐 = 𝟏𝟐. 𝟒 𝒎𝒊𝒏𝒖𝒕𝒆𝒔
𝑥2 = 1.6 = 1600 𝑣𝑒ℎ𝑖𝑐𝑙𝑒𝑠
70
b) By system optimization
𝑆 𝑥 = 𝑥1 6 + 4𝑥1 + 𝑥2(4 + 𝑥22)
𝑆 𝑥 = 6𝑥1 + 4𝑥12 + 4𝑥2 + 𝑥23
But x1=4.5 – x2
𝑆 𝑥 = 6(4.5 – x2) + 4(4.5 – x2)2 + 4𝑥2 + 𝑥23 By quadratic equation:
𝑆 𝑥 = 27 − 6x2 + 4(20.25 – 9x2 + x22) + 4𝑥2 + 𝑥23 X2=+2.467; -5.134
𝑆 𝑥 = 27 − 6x2 + 81 – 36x2 + 4x22 + 4𝑥2 + 𝑥23 x1=2.033
𝑆 𝑥 = 108 − 38x2 + 4x22 + 𝑥23 Substitute x1 in t1 = 6 + 4𝑥1
𝑑𝑆 𝑥 Substitute x2 in t2 = 4 + 𝑥22
= −38 + 8𝑥2 + 3x22 = 0
𝑑𝑥 𝒕𝟏 = 𝟏𝟒. 𝟏𝟑 𝒎𝒊𝒏
𝒕𝟐 = 𝟏𝟎. 𝟎𝟗 𝒎𝒊𝒏
Summary: Vehicle delay

User equilibrium 2900(12.4)+1600(12.4)=55800
System optimization 2033(14.13)+2467(10.09)=53613
71
Example 2:
Calculate traffic flow on each link of the network, using the given data
Table A. Minimum time/cost path for six-zone networks Table B. Average Daily trip interchange
between each zones (OD Matrix)
Destination Destination
Origin 1 2 3 4 5 6 Origin 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 1-2 1-2-3 1-4 1-2-5 1-2-3-6 1 250 100 125 150 75
2 2-1 2-3 2-5-4 2-5 2-5-6 2 300 275 200 400 150
3 3-2-1 3-2 3-2-5-4 3-2-5 3-6 3 150 325 100 100 240
4 4-1 4-5-2 4-5-2-3 4-5 4-5-6 4 200 150 50 350 125
5 5-2-1 5-2 5-2-3 5-4 5-6 5 100 300 125 250 200
6 6-3-2-1 6-5-2 6-3 6-5-4 6-5 6 150 150 180 225 175
72
Solution:
There are seven (7) shortest links

Destination Zone
Origin Zone 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 11-2
-2 1-2-3 11-4
-4 1-2-5 1-2-3-6
2 2-1
2-1 2-3
2-3 2-5-4 2-5 2-5-6
3 3-2-1 3-2
3-2 3-2-5-4 3-2-5 3-6
3-6
4 4-1
4-1 4-5-2 4-5-2-3 4-5 4-5-6
5 5-2-1 5-2 5-2-3 5-4 5-6
6 6-3-2-1 6-5-2 6-3 6-5-4 6-5
73
▪Contributing flows to Link 1-2

Destination Zone
1 11-2
-2 1-3
1-2-3 1-4 1-5
1-2-5 1-6
1-2-3-6
2 2-1
2-1 2-3 2-5-4 2-5 2-5-6
3 3-1
3-2-1 3-2 3-2-5-4 3-2-5 3-6
4 4-1 4-5-2 4-5-2-3 4-5 4-5-6
5 5-1
5-2-1 5-2 5-2-3 5-4 5-6
6 6-1
6-3-2-1 6-5-2 6-3 6-5-4 6-5
▪1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 3-1, 1-5, 5-1, 1-6, 6-1
74

Destination Zone
1 1-2 1-2-3 11-4
-4 1-2-5 1-2-3-6
2 2-1 2-3 2-5-4 2-5 2-5-6
3 3-2-1 3-2 3-2-5-4 3-2-5 3-6
4 4-1 4-5-2 4-5-2-3 4-5 4-5-6
5 5-2-1 5-2 5-2-3 5-4 5-6
6 6-3-2-1 6-5-2 6-3 6-5-4 6-5
▪1-4, 4-1
75

Destination Zone
1 1-2 1-3
1-2-3 1-4 1-2-5 1-6
1-2-3-6
2 2-1 2-3
2-3 2-5-4 2-5 2-5-6
3 3-1
3-2-1 3-2
3-2 3-4
3-2-5-4 3-5
3-2-5 3-6
4 4-1 4-5-2 4-3
4-5-2-3 4-5 4-5-6
5 5-2-1 5-2 5-3
5-2-3 5-4 5-6
6 6-1
6-3-2-1 6-5-2 6-3 6-5-4 6-5
▪1-3, 3-1, 1-6, 6-1, 2-3, 3-2, 3-4, 4-3, 3-5, 5-3
76

Destination Zone
1 1-2 1-2-3 1-4 1-2-5 1-6
1-2-3-6
2 2-1 2-3 2-5-4 2-5 2-5-6
3 3-2-1 3-2 3-2-5-4 3-2-5 3-6
3-6
4 4-1 4-5-2 4-5-2-3 4-5 4-5-6
5 5-2-1 5-2 5-2-3 5-4 5-6
6 6-1
6-3-2-1 6-5-2 6-3
6-3 6-5-4 6-5
▪1-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
77

Destination Zone
1 1-2 1-2-3 1-4 1-2-5 1-2-3-6
2 2-1 2-3 2-4
2-5-4 2-5 2-5-6
3 3-2-1 3-2 3-4
3-2-5-4 3-2-5 3-6
4 4-1 4-2
4-5-2 4-3
4-5-2-3 4-5
4-5 4-6
4-5-6
5 5-2-1 5-2 5-2-3 5-4
5-4 5-6
6 6-3-2-1 6-5-2 6-3 6-4
6-5-4 6-5
▪2-4, 4-2, 3-4, 4-3, 4-5, 5-4, 4-6, 6-4
78

Destination Zone
1 1-2 1-2-3 1-4 1-2-5 1-2-3-6
2 2-1 2-3 2-5-4 2-5 2-6
2-5-6
3 3-2-1 3-2 3-2-5-4 3-2-5 3-6
4 4-1 4-5-2 4-5-2-3 4-5 4-6
4-5-6
5 5-2-1 5-2 5-2-3 5-4 5-6
5-6
6 6-3-2-1 6-2
6-5-2 6-3 6-4
6-5-4 6-5
6-5
▪2-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, 5-6, 6-5
79
▪Summary of link contribution:

▪Link 1-2: 1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 3-1, 1-5, 5-1, 1-6, 6-1
▪Link 1-4: 1-4, 4-1
▪Link 2-3: 1-3, 3-1, 1-6, 6-1, 2-3, 3-2, 3-4, 4-3, 3-5, 5-3
▪Link 2-5: 1-5,5-1,2-4,4-2,2-5,5-2,2-6,6-2,3-4,4-3,3-5,5-3
▪Link 3-6: 1-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
▪Link 4-5: 2-4, 4-2, 3-4, 4-3, 4-5, 5-4, 4-6, 6-4
▪Link 5-6: 2-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, 5-6, 6-5
80
▪Traffic flow in links:

▪For Link 1 – 2: 1-2, 2-1, 1-3, 3-1, 1-5, 5-1, 1-6, 6-1
Destination Zone
1 250 100 125 150 75
2 300 275 200 400 150
3 150 325 100 100 240
4 200 150 50 350 125
5 100 300 125 250 200
6 150 150 180 225 175
▪FLOW 1-2 = 250+300+100+150+150+100+75+150

▪FLOW 1-2 = 1275
81

For Link 1 – 4: 1-4, 4-1
Destination Zone
1 250 100 125 150 75
2 300 275 200 400 150
3 150 325 100 100 240
4 200 150 50 350 125
5 100 300 125 250 200
6 150 150 180 225 175
▪FLOW 1-4 = 125 + 200

▪FLOW 1-4 = 325`
82

For Link 2-3: 1-3, 3-1, 1-6, 6-1, 2-3, 3-2, 3-4, 4-3, 3-5, 5-3
Destination Zone
1 250 100 125 150 75
2 300 275 200 400 150
3 150 325 100 100 240
4 200 150 50 350 125
5 100 300 125 250 200
6 150 150 180 225 175
FLOW2-3=100+75+275+150+325+100+100+50+125+150
▪FLOW 2-3 = 1450
83

▪For Link 2-5:
1-5,5-1, 2-4,4-2, 2-5,5-2, 2-6,6-2, 3-4,4-3, 3-5,5-3
Destination Zone
1 250 100 125 150 75
2 300 275 200 400 150
3 150 325 100 100 240
4 200 150 50 350 125
5 100 300 125 250 200
6 150 150 180 225 175
▪FLOW 2-5= 150+200+400+150+100+100+150+50+
100+300+125+150 = 1975
84

For Link 3-6: 1-6, 6-1, 3-6, 6-3
Destination Zone
1 250 100 125 150 75
2 300 275 200 400 150
3 150 325 100 100 240
4 200 150 50 350 125
5 100 300 125 250 200
6 150 150 180 225 175
▪FLOW 3-6 = 75+240+150+180

▪FLOW 3-6 = 645
85

For Link 4-5: 2-4, 4-2, 3-4, 4-3, 4-5, 5-4, 4-6, 6-4
Destination Zone
1 250 100 125 150 75
2 300 275 200 400 150
3 150 325 100 100 240
4 200 150 50 350 125
5 100 300 125 250 200
6 150 150 180 225 175
▪FLOW 4-5 =200+100+150+50+350+125+250+225

▪FLOW 4-5 = 1450
86

For Link 5-6: 2-6, 6-2, 4-6, 6-4, 5-6, 6-5
Destination Zone
1 250 100 125 150 75
2 300 275 200 400 150
3 150 325 100 100 240
4 200 150 50 350 125
5 100 300 125 250 200
6 150 150 180 225 175
▪FLOW 5-6 = 150+125+200+150+225+175

▪FLOW 5-6 = 1025
87
▪Link Volumes arising from “all-or-nothing” traffic assignment

procedure
1275 1450
1 2 3
325 1975 645
4 5 6
1450 1025
88

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Traffic DEMAND FORECASTING

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

▪Total productions must be equal to total attractions

TRAVEL DEMAND FORECASTING

FOUR STEP FORECASTING MODEL

– Estimates total number and types of trips originating and

– computes number of trips between one zone and all other

– percentage of travel of particular transportation mode

– Concerned with the selection of routes/path between origins and

Trip generation and attraction

▪Used for a systematic analysis and easier presentation of trip generation

Trip generation and attraction

▪area of study is divided into number of zones

Trip generation and attraction

# of trips attracted to zone 2

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

▪ number of trips are assumed to be influenced by several variables such

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

Current trip rate, remain in the future the same,

Trip generation and attraction

(For INTERNAL trips, regression Models are more suitable)

Trip generation and attraction

b. population is decreased from 3500 to 2000, income is the same

c. income increases from 300 to 350, population is the same

Trip generation and attraction

None 200 0 2.0 F= = 2.0

actual Future trip rate, T ′

Trip generation and attraction

Future trip rate, T’ Future trip rate, T’ Future trip rate, T’

Trip generation and attraction

Example 4 ZONE LAND USE PRESENT AREA PRESENT TRIPS

Solution: ZONE FUTURE AREA TRIP RATE FUTURE TRIP

Trip generation and attraction

▪ also known as cross – classification method

▪separates all households into categories classified according to a set of criteria

▪Category may be one of the following:

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

Number of cars per house hold

Trip generation and attraction

No. of cars per households

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

▪General form for trip generation

▪ trip models are usually linear, thus

Trip generation and attraction

▪ trip rates are treated as continuous variables that can be negative

Land Use Land area by usage, floor area, etc.

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

Trip generation and attraction

a = yത − bതx = 3.58 − 1.3(2.5) = 0.33 σ x 2 = 3 12 + 22 + 32 + 42

1. UNIFORM FACTOR METHOD