Portfolio Model
PT Astra International, Tbk.
NIM Nama Mahasiswa
Company Profile
Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Profile Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
• Principal activities: automotive, heavy equipment, financial services,
agribusiness and information technology business.
• Automotive 🡩 manufactures, assembles & distributes automobiles, motorcycles,
automotive components. Partnership with Toyota, Daihatsu, BMW, Peugeot,
Nissan Diesel, Isuzu and Honda.
• Heavy equipment 🡩 sells and rents construction machinery, mining contracting
business, owning and operating coal mines.
• Financial services 🡩 provides automobile financing, motorcycle financing,
general insurance and life insurance.
• Agribusiness 🡩 cultivates, harvests and processes palm oil.
• IT 🡩 marketing, renting, distributing, providing after-sales services for office
automation products & IT solutions/hardware.
Profile Business & Corporate Structure
Automotive Automobile Motorcycle Components Others
• Toyota • Honda • PT Astra • AstraWorld
• Isuzu Otoparts Tbk • TRAC
• Daihatsu • Mobil ‘88
• BMW
• Peugeot
• Nissan Diesel
Financial Automobile Motorcycle Banking General Life
Services Financing Financing • PT Bank Insurance Insurance
• Astra Credit • PT Federal Permata Tbk • PT Asuransi • PT Astra
Companies International Astra Buana CMG Life
Finance
Heavy Construction Mining
Equipment Machinery Contractor
• PT United • PT
Tractors Tbk Pamapersada
• PT Traktor Nusantara
Nusantara
Profile Business & Corporate Structure
Agribusiness Crude Palm Oil
• PT Astra Agro Lestari
Tbk
Information Document Solution IT Solution
Technology • PT Astra Graphia Tbk • PT SCS Astragraphia
Technologies
Infrastructure General Infrastructure
• PT Astratel Nusantara
• PT Intertel
Nusaperdana
Profile Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Ticker ASII
2004 Sales 44,344,572,000,000
Major Industry Retailers
Sub Industry Miscellaneous Retailers
Country Indonesia
Currency Indonesian Rupiahs
Fiscal Year Ends December
Employees 55,600
Exchanges JAK
Share Type Ordinary
Market Capitalization 36,637,615,591,700
Profile Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Overview
Berdiri 20 Feb 1957
No. NPWP 1.302.584.6-054
Klasifikasi Otomotif dan Komponennya
Status Company Listing
Listing Information
Harga Perdana Rp. 14,850
Modal Dasar Rp. 3,000,000,000,000
Modal Disetor Rp. 1,304,044,000,000
Profile Location & Domicile
Jenis Alamat Kota Telepon Faksimili
Kantor Pusat Gedung AMDI, Jl. Jakarta (021) 6522-555 (021) 6530 4957
Gaya Motor Raya (Hunting)
No.8 Sunter
Kantor Operasional Jl. Ir Juanda No. 22 - ( - ) 375008, 3848102
Jakarta 10120 2312555
Profile Management
Jabatan Nama Tanggal Menjabat
Komisaris Utama BUDHI SETIADHARMA 26 Mei 2005
Wakil Komisaris Utama BENNY SUBIANTO 22 Mei 2003
Komisaris NEVILLE BARRY VENTER 25 Jun 2002
Komisaris BENJAMIN ARMAN S. 25 Jun 2002
Komisaris ANTHONY JOHN LIDDELL N. 25 Jun 2002
Komisaris BRIAN RICHARD KEELAN 22 Mei 2003
Komisaris ADAM PHILLIP CHARLES KESWICK 22 Mei 2003
Komisaris ( Independen) MOTONOBU TAKEMOTO 25 Jun 2002
Komisaris ( Independen) DJUNAEDI HADISUMARTO 22 Mei 2003
Komisaris ( Independen) PATRICT MORIS ALEXANDER 22 Mei 2003
KOMITE AUDIT (KETUA) BENNY SUBIANTO 11 Jan 2001
KOMITE AUDIT (ANGGOTA) YUSUF HALIM 11 Jan 2002
Direktur Utama MICHAEL DHARMAWAN R. 26 Mei 2005
Direktur MARULI GULTOM 26 Mei 2005
Direktur PRIJONO SUGIARTO 25 Jun 2002
Direktur TOSSIN HIMAWAN 26 Mei 2005
Direktur Johnny Darmawan Danusasmita 26 Mei 2005
Direktur GUNAWAN GENIUSAHARDJA 25 Jun 2002
Direktur SIMON JOHN MAWSON 26 Mei 2005
Corporate Secretary AMINUDDIN 03 Okt 2001
Profile Share Holding Structure
as at October 31, 2005
Latest Known
No Name of Investors % Share
Holdings
Jardine Cycle & Carriage
1 2,028,825,504 50.11 %
(Mauritius) Ltd.
2 Others 2,019,529,810 49.89 %
4,048,355,314 100.00%
Profile Group of companies
Astra subsidiaries who are registered at the
Jakarta Stock Exchange
No. Kode Nama Perusahaan
1
AALI Astra Agro Lestari, Tbk.
2 ASGR Astra Graphia, Tbk.
3
ASII Astra International, Tbk.
4
AUTO Astra Otoparts, Tbk.
Profile Group of companies
Astra Otoparts, Tbk (AUTO)
Overview
Berdiri 20 Sep 1991
No. NPWP 1.345.243.8-043
Klasifikasi Otomotif dan Komponennya
Status Company Listing
Listing Information
Harga Perdana Rp. 575
Modal Dasar Rp. 2,000,000,000,000
Modal Disetor Rp. 374,965,000,000
Pemegang saham
PT. Astra International, Tbk. 31 Okt 2005 84.91
Profile Group of companies
Astra Agro Lestari, Tbk (AALI)
Overview
Berdiri 03 Okt 1988
No. NPWP 1.334.427.0.031
Klasifikasi Perkebunan
Status Company Listing
Listing Information
Harga Perdana Rp. 1,550
Modal Dasar Rp. 629,000,000,000
Modal Disetor Rp. 629,000,000,000
Pemegang saham
PT. Astra International, Tbk 30 Sep 2005 17.69
PT. Astra International, Tbk 30 Sep 2005 61.99
Profile Group of companies
Astra Graphia, Tbk (ASGR)
Overview
Berdiri 31 Okt 1975
No. NPWP 1.307.261.6-023
Klasifikasi Perdagangan Besar Barang Produksi
Status Company Listing
Listing Information
Harga Perdana Rp. 8,550
Modal Dasar Rp. 325,000,000,000
Modal Disetor Rp. 131,587,100,000
Pemegang Saham
Astra International, Tbk 30 Sep 2005 76.87
Profile Market Trends (automobile)
Profile Market Trends (motorcycle)
Profile Market Dominance (Car)
Car market grew by 26.1% yoy to 439,804 units,
contributed by:
- “4X2 Low” (🡩 31.6% - APV, Avanza, Xenia)
- “Med. Minibus Gasoline” (🡩 40.3% - Innova,
Serena)
- “PickUp – 4X2” (🡩 24.4% - T120, L300,
Carry, Zebra)
- “Low Sedan” (🡩 25.2% - Jazz, Rio)
- “Med. Minibus Diesel” (🡩 40.7% -
Innova, Panther)
Profile Market Dominance (Motorcycle)
Motorcycle market increased to 3.9 mn units or grew by 34.5%, contributed by:
- “Cub < 11mn” (🡩 38.1% - Supra Fit, Smash, Vega R/DB)
- “Cub > 13mn” (🡩 59.1% - Supra X125 D, Jupiter, Shogun 125, Karisma X DB)
Stock Portfolio and
Fintech
Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Shares Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
ASII stock price, 2000-2005 (IDR)
Stock Price
(11/18/05) 9,050.00
Recent stock performance
1 Week 5.8%
4 Weeks -3.7%
13 Weeks -12.1%
52 Weeks 5.8%
Shares Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Earnings / Dividends (as of 9/30/05)
Earnings Dividends
Most Recent Qtr 361.0 100.0
Last 12 Months 1459 370.0
Ratio Analysis
Price / Earnings Ratio 6.20 Dividend Yield 4.09%
Price / Sales Ratio 0.83 Payout Ratio 25.36%
% Held by
Price / Book Ratio 1.92 47.63%
Insiders
Stock Portfolio
Astra International Tbk
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ASII.JK
Last Trade: 9,350 Day's Range: 9,150 - 9,400
Trade Time: 9:01AM 52wk Range: 8,200 - 13,950
Change: 200 (2.19%) Volume: 9,480,500
Prev Close: 9,150 Avg Vol (3m): 11,200,100
Open: 9,150 Market Cap: N/A
Bid: 9,350 P/E (ttm): N/A
Ask: 9,400 EPS (ttm): 0
1y Target Est: N/A Dividend: 270 ()
Stock Portfolio
Astra International Tbk
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ASII.JK
Stock Portfolio
Astra International Tbk First Half 2005 Financial Statements
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ASII.JK
Six months ended 30 June
2005 2004 Change
Rp bn Rp bn %
Revenue 29,614 19,734 50
Operating income 3,361 2,183 54
Underlying profit 3,029 2,377 27
Net income 3,029 2,602 16
Rp Rp
Underlying earnings per share* 748 587 27
Earnings per share* 748 643 16
At At Change
30.6.05 31.12.04 %
Rp bn Rp bn
Shareholders’ funds 18,438 16,485 12
Rp Rp
Net asset value per share 4,555 4,072 12
Stock Portfolio
Astra International Tbk
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ASII.JK
Earnings per share
Group
Three months ended 30 June 2005 2004
Rp bn Rp bn
Basic earnings per share
Profit attributable to shareholders 3,029 2,602
Weighted average number of ordinary shares 4,048 4,047
in issue (millions)
Basic earnings per share Rp 748 Rp 643
Underlying earnings per share
Underlying profit attributable to shareholders 3,029 2,377
Stock Portfolio
Astra International Tbk
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ASII.JK
A reconciliation of the net income and underlying profit is as follows
Group
Six months ended 30 June 2005 2004 Change
Rp bn Rp bn %
Underlying profit 3,029 2,377 27
Add:
Exceptional item
Gain on sale of investments - 225 -100
Net Income 3,029 2,602 16
Technical Analysis
Astra International Tbk
http://uk.finance.yahoo.com/q?s=ASII.JK
Short term
Trendless and a sligthly overbougth market in
the short term. Chances are for a pull back to
5545 levels.
Medium term
Medium term price trend Astra Intl is still
bullish this week. This market keeps a relative
behavior greater 7.53 than JSX INDEX.
Volatility has been increasing during last
month. Be alert to the proximity of resistance
5900, and a possible retracement from this
level.
Model Development
Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Introduction Portfolio Model
Pada model portfolio saham, investor melakukan
investasi dengan target tingkat pendapatan tertentu
dengan meminimumkan resiko volatilitas return
(variansi) sebagaimana dinyatakan melalui fungsi tujuan
tertentu. Investasi dilakukan dalam suatu portfolio yang
menunjukkan kombinasi investasi pada berbagai saham
yang direncanakan oleh investor. Selanjutnya,
pembelian saham dibatasi oleh budget investor.
(Siregar & Puspitasari, 2005)
Introduction Portfolio Model
Matriks portfolio harus dapat menggambarkan fokus
perencanaan perusahaan sebagai berikut (Segev, 1995):
Cash flow
Model yang menggunakan cash flow sebagai fokus
perencanaan untuk mencapai keseimbangan antara unit
bisnis strategis yang menghasilkan surplus/keuntungan
dengan unit bisnis strategis yang memerlukan biaya.
Introduction Portfolio Model
Return on investment (ROI)
Menggunakan pendekatan ROI sebagai fungsi tujuan yang
menggambarkan strategi investasi yang diupayakan untuk
memaksimalkan pengembalian investasi.
Risk/return ratio
Model yang berfokus pada hubungan antara resiko dan
pengembalian investasi dan menggambarkan strategi
manajemen dalam kaitannya dengan tingkat resiko yang
diharapkan (risk averse vs risk seekers).
Introduction Portfolio Model
Life cycle stage distribution
Menggunakan pendekatan yang berfokus pada tahap-tahap
siklus hidup pasar dari unit-unit bisnis. Berfungsi sebagai alat
bantu perencanaan yang memungkinkan keberhasilan
manajemen melakukan distribusi yang diharapkan terhadap
unit bisnis di seluruh tahap siklus hidupnya.
Identification Rich Picture
Tseng & Gmytrasiewicz developed decision model using
Object Oriented Bayesian Knowledge Base (OOBKB). Agent’s
knowledge is represented as an influence diagram.
Agent can use this model to gather extra information and make
decision recommendations to the investor.
Important: Urgency is the value of time and has the intuitive
property of favoring immediate actions, sometimes making
computational actions, such as expanding the model and
information gathering.
Identification Influence Diagram
Identification
OOBKB Class Hierarchy
Class hierarchy of OOBKB in a simple investment domain
Identification Influence Diagram
Tseng & Gmytrasiewicz developed decision model using Object
Oriented Bayesian Knowledge Base (OOBKB). Agent’s
knowledge is represented as an influence diagram.
Agent can use this model to gather extra information and make
decision recommendations to the investor.
Important: Urgency is the value of time and has the intuitive
property of favoring immediate actions, sometimes making
computational actions, such as expanding the model and
information gathering.
Identification Influence Diagram
The Tseng-Gmytrasiewicz’s model created from two level classes
Financial Measures
Astra International, Tbk (ASII)
Analysis Financial Measures
Highlights
• Underlying earnings per
share up 27% to Rp 1,109 “Astra performed well in the
• Motor vehicle and motorcycle first nine months of 2005 and
sales grew strongly
a satisfactory trading
• Good growth in financial performance is expected for
services, heavy equipment
the rest of the year despite
and agribusiness
more challenging market
• New investments in existing
toll road, financing
conditions.”
businesses and Honda
Michael D. Ruslim, President Director
factory 28 October 2005
Analysis Financial Measures
Divisional Revenue
Division 9M’05 Contr. 9M04 Contr.
4W 22,069 47.5% 15,849 50.5%
2W 4,965 10.7% 4,107 13.1%
Components 2,867 6.2% 2,135 6.8%
Automotive 29,901 64.4% 22,091 70.4%
Agribusiness 2,419 5.2% 2,627 8.4%
Financial Services 3,929 8.5% 2,517 8.0%
Heavy Equipment* 9,779 21.1% 3,651 11.6%
Others 387 0.8% 479 1.5%
Total 46,415 100% 31,364 100%
HE* : UT was consolidated starting Jun’04
Analysis Financial Measures
• Astra will deliver payment of its interim dividend of IDR 100/share on 24 November
2005.
• Effective 1 August 2005, Astra through its subsidiary, PT Astratel Nusantara, together
with Citigroup Financial Products Inc. purchased a 53.99% interest in PT Marga
Mandalasakti. This company operates the toll road between Tangerang and Merak.
Astra’s effective interest in the company is 34%.
• PT Sedaya Multi Investama, an Astra subsidiary, together with Komatsu Asia & Pacific
Pte. Ltd. established a 50 – 50 joint venture company, Komatsu Astra Finance on 6
May 2005. This company will finance heavy equipment in the mining sector.
• On 14 October 2005, Astra signed a joint venture agreement with Toyota Financial
Services Corporation of Japan. This 50 – 50 joint venture, Toyota Astra Financial
Services, will provide finance for Toyota vehicle sales.
• UT signed a 3 year Syndicated Credit Facility of USD 140 mn on 19 October 2005.
This will be used for working capital purposes and to refinance its existing facilities.
Analysis Key Performance Drivers
• Astra sales grew by 48.0% yoy partly due to consolidation of UT starting June 2004
(33.7% yoy on a pro-forma basis).
• Automotive sales increased 33.2% year on year to 203,864 units while motorcycle
sales grew 31.1% to 2,015,886 units in 9M’05.
• Consumer financing: 9M’05 9M’04 % Chg
ACC (Rp tn) 8.4 7.5 11.5%
FIF (Rp tn) 10.4 5.8 80.0%
• Komatsu product sold by UT was 1,955 units or 65.7% higher than 9M’04.
• Pama revenue increased due to higher over burden and coal volume (43.2% and
17.6%, respectively).
• Astra Otoparts sales increased by 34.3% yoy due to better automotive market (OEM
🡩 42%, after market 🡩16% and export 🡩 68%).
• 9M'05, agribusiness contributed less revenue as increase in CPO sales volume was
more than offset by the 13.9% decline in CPO prices.
References
References
Astra International, Tbk, Annual Reports 2004-2005, Investment
Updates 2005, Company Profile, http://www.astra.co.id
Daellenbach, H.G., Systems and Decision Making: A
Management Science Approach, John Wiley & Sons,
Chichester UK, 1994
Konno, Hiroshi, and Yamazaki, Hiroaki, Mean-Absolute Deviation
Portfolio Optimization and Its Applications to Tokyo
Stock Market, Management Science Vol. 37 (1991) No. 5,
pp.519-531.
References
Luenberger, David G., Investment Science, Oxford University Press,
New York, 1998.
Markowitz, Harry M., Portfolio Selection, Journal of Finance, Vol. 7
(1952) No. 1, pp. 77-91.
Markowitz, H., Portfolio Selection: Efficient Diversification of
Investments, John Wiley & Sons, New York, 1959.
Pearce, J.A., Robinson, R.B., Zahra, S.A., An Industry Approach to
Cases in Strategic Management, Irwin, Boston, 1989
References
Segev, E., Corporate Strategy: Portfolio Models, International
Thomson Pub., London, 1995
Siregar, A.B., Puspitasari, I., Model Alokasi Ekspor Kompditas
Pertanian dengan Mempertimbangkan Stabilitas
Penjualan, Proceeding Seminar Nasional Pemodelan Sistem,
Bandung, 2005
Tseng, C., Gmytrasiewicz, P.J., Real Time Decision Support
System for Portfolio Management, University of Texas at
Arlington (tseng@cse.uta.edu), University of Illinois at Chicago
(piotr@cs.uic.edu)
