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Session 5 - Bond Valuation

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28 views41 pages

Session 5 - Bond Valuation

Uploaded by

23005031
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Because learning changes everything.

Corporate Finance Thirteenth Edition


Stephen A. Ross / Randolph W. Westerfield / Jeffrey F. Jaffe /
Bradford D. Jordan

Chapter 8

Interest Rates and Bond Valuation

© McGraw Hill LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill LLC.
Key Concepts and Skills
• Know the important bond features and bond types.
• Understand bond values and why they fluctuate.
• Understand bond ratings and what they mean.
• Understand the impact of inflation on interest rates.
• Understand the term structure of interest rates and the
determinants of bond yields.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 2


Chapter Outline
8.1 Bonds and Bond Valuation
8.2 Government and Corporate Bonds
8.3 Bond Markets
8.4 Inflation and Interest Rates
8.5 Determinants of Bond Yields

© McGraw Hill, LLC 3


8.1 Bonds and Bond Valuation
A bond is a legally binding agreement between a borrower
and a lender that specifies the:
• Par (face) value.
• Coupon rate.
• Coupon payment.
• Maturity date.

The yield to maturity is the required market interest rate on


the bond.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 4


Bond Valuation
Primary Principle:
• Value of financial securities = PV of expected future
cash flows.
Bond value is, therefore, determined by the present
value of the coupon payments and par value.
Interest rates are inversely related to present values
(i.e., bond prices).

© McGraw Hill, LLC 5


The Bond-Pricing Equation

é 1-1 ù
ê ú
êë (1 + R ) úû
t
F
Bond value = C ´ +
(1 + R )
t
R

Bond value = Present value of the coupons + Present


value of the face amount

© McGraw Hill, LLC 6


Bond Example - I
Consider a U.S. government bond with as 6.375 percent
coupon that expires in December 2025.
• The par value of the bond is $1,000.
• Coupon payments are made semiannually (June 30 and
December 31 for this particular bond).
• Since the coupon rate is 6.375 percent, the semiannual
payment is $31.875.
• On January 1, 2021, the size and timing of cash flows are:

Access the text alternative for slide images


© McGraw Hill, LLC 7
Bond Example – II
On January 1, 2021, the required yield is 5 percent.
The current value is:

$31.875 é 1 ù $1, 000


PV = 1 - + = $1, 060.17
.05 êë 1.02510 úû 1.02510
2

© McGraw Hill, LLC 8


Bond Example: Calculator
Find the present value (as of January 1, 2021) of a
6.375 percent coupon bond with semiannual payments
and a maturity date of December 2025 if the YTM is 5
percent.

Access the text alternative for slide images


© McGraw Hill, LLC 9
Bond Example: Price Change
Now assume that the required yield is 11 percent.
How does this change the bond’s price?

$31.875 é 1 ù $1, 000


PV = 1 + + = $825.69
.11 êë 1.05510 úû 1.05510
2

© McGraw Hill, LLC 10


YTM and Bond Value

When the YTM > coupon, the bond trades at a discount.

Access the text alternative for slide images


© McGraw Hill, LLC 11
Bond Concepts
Bond prices and market interest rates move in opposite
directions.
When coupon rate = YTM, price = par value
When coupon rate > YTM, price > par value (premium
bond)
When coupon rate < YTM, price < par value (discount
bond)

© McGraw Hill, LLC 12


Interest Rate Risk
Price Risk:
• Change in price due to changes in interest rates.
• Long-term bonds have more price risk than short-term bonds.
• Low-coupon-rate bonds have more price risk than high coupon
rate bonds.

Reinvestment Rate Risk:


• Uncertainty concerning rates at which cash flows can be
reinvested.
• Short-term bonds have more reinvestment rate risk than long-
term bonds.
• High-coupon-rate bonds have more reinvestment rate risk than
low coupon rate bonds.
© McGraw Hill, LLC 13
Maturity and Bond Price Volatility
Consider two otherwise
identical bonds.
The long-maturity bond
will have much more
volatility with respect to
changes in the discount
rate.

Access the text alternative for slide images


© McGraw Hill, LLC 14
Coupon Rates and Bond Prices
Consider two otherwise
identical bonds.
The low-coupon bond
will have more volatility
with respect to changes
in the discount rate.

Access the text alternative for slide images


© McGraw Hill, LLC 15
Computing Yield to Maturity
Yield to maturity is the rate implied by the current bond
price.
Finding the YTM requires trial and error if you do not
have a financial calculator, and it is similar to the
process for finding r with an annuity.
If you have a financial calculator, enter N, PV, PMT, and
FV, remembering the sign convention (PMT and FV
need to have the same sign, PV the opposite sign).

© McGraw Hill, LLC 16


YTM with Annual Coupons
Consider a bond with a 10 percent annual coupon rate,
15 years to maturity, and a par value of $1,000. The
current price is $928.09.
• Will the yield be more or less than 10 percent?
• N = 15; PV = −928.09; FV = 1,000; PMT = 100
• CPT I / Y = 11%

© McGraw Hill, LLC 17


YTM with Semiannual Coupons
Suppose a bond with a 10 percent coupon rate and
semiannual coupons has a face value of $1,000, 20 years to
maturity, and is selling for $1,197.93.
• Is the YTM more or less than 10 percent?
• What is the semiannual coupon payment?
• How many periods are there?
• N = 40; PV = −1,197.93; PMT = 50; FV = 1,000; CPT
I / Y = 4% (Is this the YTM?)
• YTM = 4% × 2 = 8%

© McGraw Hill, LLC 18


Current Yield versus Yield to Maturity
Current yield = Annual coupon
Price

Yield to maturity = Current yield + Capital gains yield


Example: 10 percent coupon bond, with semiannual coupons, face
value of 1,000, 20 years to maturity, $1,197.93 price
$100
Current yield = = .0835, or 8.35%
$1,197.93

Price in one year, assuming no change in YTM = 1,193.68


( $1,193.68 – 1,197.93)
Capital gain yield = = –.0035, or –.35%
$1,197.93

YTM = 8.35% − .35% = 8%, which is the same YTM computed


earlier
© McGraw Hill, LLC 19
Bond Pricing Theorems
Bonds of similar risk (and maturity) will be priced to yield
about the same return, regardless of the coupon rate.
If you know the price of one bond, you can estimate its
YTM and use that to find the price of the second bond.
This is a useful concept that can be transferred to
valuing assets other than bonds.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 20


Zero Coupon Bonds
Make no periodic interest payments (coupon rate = 0%)
The entire yield to maturity comes from the difference
between the purchase price and the par value
Cannot sell for more than par value
Sometimes called zeroes, deep discount bonds, or original
issue discount bonds (OIDs)
Treasury bills and principal-only Treasury strips are good
examples of zeroes

© McGraw Hill, LLC 21


Pure Discount Bonds
Information needed for valuing pure discount bonds:
• Time to maturity (T) = Maturity date − Today’s date
• Face value (F)
• Discount rate (r)

Present value of a pure discount bond at Time 0:


F
PV =
(1 + r )
T

© McGraw Hill, LLC 22


Pure Discount Bonds: Example
Find the value of a 15-year zero coupon bond with a
$1,000 par value and a YTM of 12 percent.

F $1, 000
PV = = = $174.11
(1 + r )
T 30
1.60

© McGraw Hill, LLC 23


Bond Pricing with a Spreadsheet 1

There are specific formulas for finding bond prices and


yields on a spreadsheet.
• PRICE(Settlement, Maturity, Rate, Yld, Redemption,
Frequency, Basis)
• YIELD(Settlement, Maturity, Rate, Pr, Redemption,
Frequency, Basis)
• Settlement and maturity need to be actual dates.
• The redemption and Pr need to given as % of par
value.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 24


Bond Pricing with a Spreadsheet 2

Example:
You are looking at a bond that has 22 years to maturity. The coupon rate is 8
percent and coupons are paid semiannually. The yield-to-maturity is 9 percent.
What is the current price?
RATE 4.50% (9%/2)
NPER 44 (22*2)
PMT 4 (8%*100/2)
FV 100 (Using 100 par so that PV will give price as % of par)
Price $90.49 Formula: −PV(4.50%,44,4,100)

You are looking at a bond that has 22 years to maturity. The coupon rate is 8
percent and coupons are paid semiannually. The current price is $960.17. What is
the yield to maturity?
NPER 44 (22*2)
PMT 4 (8%*100/2)
PV −96.017 (Entered as a % of par and negative for sign convention)
FV 100
YTM 8.40% (Returns as a whole percent, format to get decimal places)
=2*RATE(44,4,-96.017,100)
Formula:
(Have to multiply by 2 because it returns a semiannual rate)

© McGraw Hill, LLC 25


8.2 Government and Corporate Bonds
Treasury Securities:
• Federal government debt.
• T-bills—pure discount bonds with original maturity less than one
year.
• T-notes—coupon debt with original maturity between one and
ten years.
• T-bonds—coupon debt with original maturity greater than ten
years.

Municipal Securities:
• Debt of state and local governments.
• Varying degrees of default risk, rated similar to corporate debt.
• Interest received is exempt from tax at the federal level.
© McGraw Hill, LLC 26
Aftertax Yields
A taxable bond has a yield of 8 percent, and a municipal
bond has a yield of 6 percent.
If you are in a 30 percent tax bracket, which bond do you
prefer?
• .08(1 − .3) = .056, or 5.6%
• The aftertax return on the corporate bond is 5.6 percent,
compared to a 6 percent return on the municipal.

At what tax rate would you be indifferent between the two


bonds?
• .08(1 − T) = .06, or 6%
• T = .25, or 25%

© McGraw Hill, LLC 27


Corporate Bonds
Greater default risk relative to government bonds
The promised yield (YTM) may be higher than the
expected return due to this added default risk

© McGraw Hill, LLC 28


Bond Ratings—Investment Quality
High Grade:
• Moody’s Aaa and S&P AAA—capacity to pay is extremely
strong.
• Moody’s Aa and S&P AA—capacity to pay is very strong.

Medium Grade:
• Moody’s A and S&P A—capacity to pay is strong, but more
susceptible to changes in circumstances.
• Moody’s Baa and S&P BBB—capacity to pay is adequate,
adverse conditions will have more impact on the firm’s
ability to pay.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 29


Bond Ratings—Speculative
Low Grade:
• Moody’s Ba and B.
• S&P BB and B.
• Considered speculative with respect to capacity to pay.
Very Low Grade:
• Moody’s Caa, Ca and C.
• S&P CCC, CC, C, and D.
• Highly uncertain repayment and, in many cases, already in
default, with principal and interest in arrears.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 30


8.3 Bond Markets
Primarily over-the-counter transactions with dealers
connected electronically.
Extremely large number of bond issues, but generally
low daily volume in single issues.
Makes getting up-to-date prices difficult, particularly on a
small company or municipal issues.
Treasury securities are an exception.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 31


Treasury Quotations
2028 Aug 15 2.875 118.116 118.126 -.03 .517

What is the coupon rate on the bond?


When does the bond mature?
What is the bid price? What does this mean?
What is the ask price? What does this mean?
How much did the price change from the previous day?
What is the yield based on the ask price?

© McGraw Hill, LLC 32


Clean versus Dirty Prices
Clean price: quoted price.
Dirty price: price actually paid = quoted price plus accrued
interest.
Example: Suppose you buy a bond with a 12 percent annual
coupon, payable semiannually; you pay $1,080; and the next
coupon is due in four months.
• $1,080 is the dirty, or invoice, price.
• The next coupon will be $60.
• Accrued interest = ( 2/6 )( $60 ) = $20
• Clean price = $1,080 − 20 = $1,060.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 33


8.4 Inflation and Interest Rates
Real rate of interest—change in purchasing power
Nominal rate of interest—quoted rate of interest, change
in purchasing power and inflation
The ex ante nominal rate of interest includes our desired
real rate of return plus an adjustment for expected
inflation.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 34


Real versus Nominal Rates
(1 + R) = (1 + r) × (1 + h), where,
• R = nominal rate.
• r = real rate.
• h = expected inflation rate.
Approximation,
• R = r + h.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 35


Inflation-Linked Bonds
Most government bonds face inflation risk
TIPS (Treasury inflation-protected securities), however,
eliminate this risk by providing promised payments
specified in real, rather than nominal, terms

© McGraw Hill, LLC 36


The Fisher Effect: Example
If we require a 10 percent real return and we expect
inflation to be 8 percent, what is the nominal rate?
R = (1.1) × (1.08) − 1 = .188, or 18.8%
Approximation: R = 10% + 8% = 18%
Because the real return and expected inflation are
relatively high, there is a significant difference between
the actual Fisher Effect and the approximation.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 37


8.5 Determinants of Bond Yields
Term structure is the relationship between time to maturity
and yields, all else equal.
It is important to recognize that we pull out the effect of
default risk, different coupons, etc.
Yield curve—graphical representation of the term structure
• Normal—upward-sloping, long-term yields are higher than
short-term yields.
• Inverted—downward-sloping, long-term yields are lower
than short-term yields.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 38


Factors Affecting Required Return
Default risk premium—remember bond ratings
Taxability premium—remember municipal versus
taxable
Liquidity premium—bonds that have more frequent
trading will generally have lower required returns
(remember bid-ask spreads)
Anything else that affects the risk of the cash flows to
the bondholders will affect the required returns.

© McGraw Hill, LLC 39


Quick Quiz
How do you find the value of a bond, and why do bond
prices change?
What are bond ratings, and why are they important?
How does inflation affect interest rates?
What is the term structure of interest rates?
What factors determine the required return on bonds?

© McGraw Hill, LLC 40


Because learning changes everything. ®

www.mheducation.com

© McGraw Hill LLC. All rights reserved. No reproduction or distribution without the prior written consent of McGraw Hill LLC.

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