Investment Banking
Investment Banking
Investment Banking
Buy-Side – is the side of the financial market that buys and invests large portions of securities for
the purpose of money or fund management.
The Role of the Buy Side:
• Manage their clients’ money
• Make investment decisions (buy, hold, or sell)
• Earn the best risk-adjusted return on capital
• Perform in-house research on investment opportunities
• Perform financial modeling and valuation
• Find investors and recruit capital to manage
• Grow assets under management (AUM)
Sell-Side – is the other side of the financial market, which deals with the creation, promotion, and
selling of traded securities to the public.
The Role of the Sell Side:
• Advise corporate clients on major transactions
• Facilitate raising capital, including debt and equity
• Advise on mergers and acquisitions (M&A)
• Win new business (build relationships with corporates)
• Market and sell securities
• Create liquidity for listed securities
• Help clients get in and out of positions
• Provide equity research coverage of listed companies
• Perform financial modelling and valuation
Valuation: -
Every asset, financial as well as real, has a value. There are different methods used to value each asset
and it is essential that you identify sources of value to successfully manage and invest in those assets.
Broadly, there are two approaches to valuation:
1) Absolute Valuation:
It relates the value of an asset to its capacity to generate cash flows and the risk in these cash
flows. Generally, Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) or Dividend Discount model (DDM) valuation is
used here. It is the present value of expected future cash flows on that asset.
2) Relative Valuation:
The value of asset is estimated by looking at price of comparable assets relative to a common
variable such as earnings, cash flows, book value or sales. Further, in few specific circumstances,
contingent claim valuation (using option pricing) is also used to measure the value of asset. These
are real options.
Further, in few specific circumstances, contingent claim valuation (using option pricing) is also used
to measure the value of asset. These are real options.
Absolute Valuation
1) Dividend Discount Model
The dividend discount model (DDM) is a quantitative method used for predicting the price
of a company's stock based on the theory that its present-day price is worth the sum of all
of its future dividend payments when discounted back to their present value. It attempts to
calculate the fair value of a stock irrespective of the prevailing market conditions and
considers the dividend payout factors and the market-expected returns. If the value obtained
from the DDM is higher than the current trading price of shares, then the stock is
undervalued and qualifies for a buy, and vice versa.
Advantages –
• It is the most commonly used model to calculate share price and is the easiest to
understand.
• It values a company's stock without considering the market conditions, so it is easier
to compare companies of different sizes and industries.
Disadvantages –
• It does not consider non-dividend factors such as brand loyalty, customer retention
and the ownership of intangible assets, all of which increase the value of a company.
• The Gordon Growth Model also relies heavily on the assumption that a company's
dividend growth rate is stable and known.
Firms in the mature stage of the industry life cycle are most likely to meet the first two
criteria.
Types of DDM
Example:
As a hypothetical example, consider a company whose stock is trading at $110 per share. This
company requires an 8% minimum rate of return (r) and will pay a $3 dividend per share next year
(D1), which is expected to increase by 5% annually (g).
According to the Gordon growth model, the shares are currently $10 overvalued in the market.
Disadvantages
1. The Gordon growth model ignores non-dividend factors (such as brand loyalty, customer
retention, and intangible assets) that can add to a company's value.
2. It assumes that a company's dividend growth rate is stable.
3. It is very sensitive to values of assumptions such as growth rate and discount rate, and
gives bad results as “g” comes closer to “r”.
Multi-Stage Model
The Multi-Stage Dividend Discount Model (MSDDM) is a valuation model used in finance to
estimate the intrinsic value of a stock when a company's dividend growth is expected to follow a non-
constant pattern, consisting of multiple stages with different growth rates. This model acknowledges
the fact that companies may experience different growth phases in their dividend payments over time.
There are three common variations of the MSDDM: the Two-Stage DDM, the Three-Stage DDM,
and the H-Model.
Where, Vn = D0(1+gs)m(1+gt)n-m(1+gL)/(r-gL)
Where:
V0 = Intrinsic stock price
D0 = Dividend in current period
r = Required rate of return (cost of equity)
m = period of initial high growth phase
n = period of transition growth phase
gs = Growth rate of dividends during the high-growth stage
gt = Growth rate of dividends during the transitional phase
gL= Growth rate of dividends during the stable growth stage
3) H-Model
The H-Model, also known as the Multistage Dividend Discount Model, is a variation of the Dividend
Discount Model (DDM) used in finance to estimate the intrinsic value of a stock. It is designed to
account for companies that are expected to go through two stages of dividend growth: an initial high-
growth phase followed by a transition to a stable growth phase. The H-Model is named after its
shape, which resembles the letter "H" due to the smooth transition between growth phases.
The key assumption of the H-Model is that the company's dividends will initially grow at a higher
rate (g1) during the high-growth phase and then gradually decline linearly until they reach a stable,
constant growth rate (g2) in the second stage. The model incorporates this transition more smoothly
compared to the Two-Stage Dividend Discount Model, which assumes an abrupt change in growth
rates.
Where:
P0 = Intrinsic value of stock
D0 = Dividend in current period
r = Required rate of return (cost of equity)
g1 = Growth rate of dividends during the high-growth stage
g2 = Growth rate of dividends during the stable phase
H = (t/2) Half-life (in years) of high-growth period
Example:
A company recently issued a dividend of $3. The expected growth rate is 10%, and you expect the
rate to fall to a stable growth rate of 2% over the next twelve years. If the required rate of return is
11%, what would the value of a share in the hypothetical company be under the H-model?
We are given all the components that are used in the H-model, so, using the formula, we get:
Stock Value = (D0(1+g2))/(r-g2) + (D0*H*(g1-g2))/(r-g2)
Stock Value = ($3(1+0.02))/(0.11–0.02) + ($3*(12/2)*(0.10-0.02))/(0.11–0.02)
Stock Value = $50.00
2) DCF Valuation
To use discounted cash flow valuation, you need
• to estimate the life of the asset
• to estimate the cash flows during the life of the asset
• to estimate the discount rate to apply to these cash flows to get present value
The value of a risky asset can be estimated by discounting the expected cash flows on the asset
over its life at a risk-adjusted discount rate.
Steps to DCF
1) Forecasting Cashflows – The cashflows are forecasted by forecasting the components that
make FCFF. They are forecasted usually for 5-10 years depending on the company and the
growth stage it is at
2) Calculate the discount rate – If FCFE is used, calculate cost of capital of the firm using the
CAPM model or any such suitable method. If FCFF is used, the cashflows need to be
discounted using WACC (Weighted average cost of capital)
3) Calculate the terminal value – If cashflows are forecasted for 5 years, the terminal value can
be calculated as on year 5 and the be discounted to year 0 along with other cashflows. The
terminal value can be calculated by dividing the last cashflow forecast by the difference
between discount rate and terminal growth rate or by using the multiple approach as discussed
above
4) By adding the sum of the discounted FCFF and terminal value, we arrive at the enterprise value.
We can subtract net debt to arrive at the equity value. In case FCFE has been forecasted, the
sum of the discounted FCFEs will be equal to the equity value.
Advantages of DCF
DCF Valuation truly captures the underlying fundamental drivers of a business (cost of equity,
weighted average cost of capital, growth rate, re-investment rate, etc.). Consequently, this comes
closest to estimating intrinsic value of the asset/business.
Disadvantages of DCF
DCF models heavily rely on assumptions about future cash flows, growth rates, discount rates, and
terminal values. Small changes in these assumptions can lead to significant variations in the calculated
intrinsic value, making the model sensitive to inputs.
FCFE
• FCFE (Free Cash flow to Equity) is the cash available to common shareholders after funding
capital requirements, working capital needs, and debt financing requirements. It is calculated.
• FCFE = NI + Depreciation - Capex – Increase in Working Capital + Net Borrowings
• Note: If FCFE is used as cash flow while doing valuation of a firm, then COE is used a
corresponding discount rate to discount back all the cash flows to present date.
FCFF vs FCFE
• The differences between FCFF and FCFE account for differences in capital structure and
consequently reflect the perspectives of different capital suppliers.
• FCFE is easier and more straightforward to use in cases where the company's capital structure
is not particularly volatile.
• On the other hand, if a company has negative FCFE and significant debt outstanding, FCFF
is generally the best choice.
Cost of Equity
A firm's cost of equity represents the compensation the market demands in exchange for owning the
asset and bearing the risk of ownership. There are several methods to calculate the cost of equity, and
here are some of the most commonly used ones:
5) Build-Up Method:
• The Build-Up Method calculates the cost of equity by adding various risk premiums to the
risk-free rate. These premiums include equity risk premium, size premium, and specific
company risk.
• The formula is: Ke = Risk-Free Rate + Equity Risk Premium + Size Premium + Specific
Company Risk Premium
• It is particularly useful for private companies with limited market data.
6) Earnings Capitalization Model (ECM):
• The ECM estimates the cost of equity based on the company's expected earnings and the
capitalization rate (the required rate of return).
• The formula is: Ke = Earnings per Share (EPS) / Current Stock Price (P)
• It is suitable for valuing companies based on their earnings potential.
The model starts with the idea that individual investment contains two types of risk:
1. Systematic Risk – These are market risks—that is, general perils of investing—that cannot
be diversified away. Interest rates, recessions, and wars are examples of systematic risks.
2. Unsystematic Risk – Also known as "specific risk," this risk relates to individual stocks. In
more technical terms, it represents the component of a stock's return that is not correlated with
general market moves.
Modern portfolio theory shows that specific risk can be removed or at least mitigated through
diversification of a portfolio. The trouble is that diversification still does not solve the problem of
systematic risk; even a portfolio holding all the shares in the stock market can't eliminate that risk.
Therefore, when calculating a deserved return, systematic risk is what most plagues investors.
CAPM evolved as a way to measure this systematic risk. Sharpe found that the return on an individual
stock, or a portfolio of stocks, should equal its cost of capital. The standard formula remains the
CAPM, which describes the relationship between risk and expected return.
Ke = Rf + β*(Rm-Rf)
Where,
Ke= Cost of Equity
Rf= Risk Free Rate of Return
Rm= Market Return
β = Beta, measure of systematic risk
Rm-Rf= Equity Risk Premium
Beta Calculation
Beta is a measure of a stock's volatility in relation to the overall market. By definition, the market,
such as the S&P 500 Index, has a beta of 1.0, and individual stocks are ranked according to how much
they deviate from the market. A stock that swings more than the market over time has a beta above
1.0. If a stock moves less than the market, the stock's beta is less than 1.0
For e.g. – A beta of 2 implies that if the market moves by 1%, the stock will move by 2% in the same
direction.
Lever up the beta using debt and equity estimates of your company-
1) Historical estimates – It is the difference between the historical mean return for a broad-
based equity-market index and a risk-free rate over a given time period
2) Forward looking estimates – Gordon Growth Model
GGM equity risk premium = (1-year forecasted dividend yield on market index) +
(consensus long-term earnings growth rate) - (long-term government bond yield)
3) Survey/analyst’s estimates - use the consensus of the opinions from a sample of people
use the consensus of the opinions from a sample of people.
Cost of Debt
The cost of debt is the total interest expense owed on a debt. There are a couple of different ways to
calculate a company’s cost of debt, depending on the information available:
1) Yield to Maturity Approach
2) Debt Rating Approach
For example, assume that the average maturity of a company’s debt is 10 years, and the company
itself has a rating of BBB.
We will first observe that the yield on debt with a similar rating is 7%. Given the tax-rate of 35%, the
after-tax cost of debt for the company will be:
= 7% (1-35%) = 4.55%
WACC
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) represents a firm's average after-tax cost of capital from
all sources, including common stock, preferred stock, bonds, and other forms of debt. WACC is the
average rate that a company expects to pay to finance its assets.
The discount rate should correspond to the type of cash flow being discounted. Cash flows to the
entire firm should be discounted with the WACC. Alternatively, cash flows in excess of what is
required for debt service should be treated as cash flows to equity and discounted at the required return
to equity.
Terminal Value
There are two basic approaches for calculating terminal value: using a single-stage model or a multiple
approach:
2) Multiple Approach:
The other way to do this is to use valuation multiples (like P/E ratios) to estimate terminal value.
The terminal value in year n in terms of P/E, for example, would be expressed as:
terminal value in year n = (trailing P/E) x (earnings in year n) terminal value in year n=
(leading P/E) x (forecasted earnings in year n+1)
Relative Valuation
A relative valuation model is a business valuation method that compares a company's value to that of
its competitors or industry peers to assess the firm's financial worth. Relative valuation models are an
alternative to absolute value models, which try to determine a company's intrinsic worth without any
reference to another company or industry average. The investors may use relative valuation models
when determining whether a company's stock is a good buy.
Common Multiples
There are two main types of valuation multiples
1) Equity Multiples – These use prices of the company’s share. For example, P/E, P/B, etc.
2) Enterprise Value Multiples – These use EV of the company. For example, EV/EBIT, EV/
EBITDA, etc.
Equity level ratios can be affected by changes in the capital structure without any change in the
Enterprise value. Enterprise level ratios help compare companies with different leverage ratios. Also,
Enterprise level ratios are generally less affected by accounting changes/ differences as the
denominator is higher than that in the case of equity ratios.
1) Price to Earnings or P/E – The price-to-earnings ratio (P/E ratio) is the ratio for valuing a
company that measures its current share price relative to its per-share earnings (EPS). P/E may
be estimated on a trailing (backward-looking) or forward (projected) basis and is the most
widely used tool by which investors and analysts determine a stock's relative valuation. It is
read with expected growth to assess how stocks are relatively valued. The lower the P/E ratio,
the more attractive the investment.
2) Price to Book or P/B – Companies use the price-to-book ratio (P/B ratio) to compare a firm's
market capitalization to its book value. It's calculated by dividing the company's stock price
per share by its book value per share (BVPS). It is often read with ROE. A stock with lower
P/B ratio and higher ROE is valued higher.
3) Price to Sales or P/S – The price-to-sales ratio (Price/Sales or P/S) is calculated by taking a
company's market capitalization (the number of outstanding shares multiplied by the share
price) and divide it by the company's total sales or revenue over the past 12 months. It is
assessed with net margin (Higher is better). The lower the P/S ratio, the more attractive the
investment.
4) Enterprise Value to EBITDA or EV/EBITDA – Investors and analysts use the enterprise
value (EV) metric to calculate a company's total monetary value or assessed worthwhile
EBITDA is a useful way to measure a company’s overall financial performance and
profitability. The ratio is used to compare the value of a company, debt included, to the
company’s cash earnings less non-cash expenses. It's ideal for analysts and investors looking
to compare companies within the same industry. This ratio is read along with reinvestment
rate to judge how stocks are relatively valued. A stock with lower EV/EBITDA and low
reinvestment needs is attractive.
Understanding relative valuation using PE multiple: A company with a high P/E ratio is
trading at a higher price per dollar of earnings than its peers and is considered overvalued. Likewise,
a company with a low P/E ratio is trading at a lower price per dollar of EPS and is considered
undervalued. This framework can be carried out with any multiple of price to gauge relative market
value.
Therefore, if the average P/E for an industry is 10 times and a particular company in that industry is
trading at 5 times of earnings, it is relatively undervalued to its peers.
Estimating Relative Value of Stock: In addition to providing a gauge for relative value, the
P/E ratio allows analysts to back into the price that a stock should be trading at based on its peers.
Example: If the average P/E for an industry is 20, it means the average price of stock from a company
in the industry trades at 20 times its EPS.
Company A trades for Rs. 50 in the market and has an EPS of Rs. 2. The P/E ratio is clearly 25. This
is higher than the industry average of 20, which means Company A is overvalued. If Company A
were trading at 20 times its EPS, the industry average, it would be trading at a price of Rs. 40, which
is the relative value. In other words, based on the industry average, Company A is trading at a price
that is Rs. 10 higher than it should be, representing an opportunity to sell.
Comparison of P/E ratio and EV/EBITDA
P/E ratio is widely known and used as an indicator of a company's future growth potential.
However, it does not reveal a full picture, and it is most useful when comparing only companies
within the same industry or comparing companies against the general market.
There are problems that arise for investors with the use of the P/E ratio. The stock price can get
run up if investors are overly optimistic causing an overvalued P/E ratio. Also, the earnings portion
of the metric can be manipulated somewhat.
The EV/EBITDA ratio helps to allay some of the P/E ratios downfalls and is a financial metric
that measures the return a company makes on its capital investments. EBITDA provides a clearer
picture of the financial performance of a company since it strips out debt costs, taxes, and
accounting measures like depreciation, which spreads the costs of fixed assets out for many years.
The other component, EV is the sum of a company's equity value or market capitalization plus its
debt less cash. It is typically used in buyouts. The EV/EBITDA is calculated to achieve an earnings
multiple that is more comprehensive than the P/E ratio.
However, the EV/EBITDA ratio has its drawbacks, such as the fact that it doesn't include capital
expenditures, which for some industries can be significant. As a result, it may produce a more
favourable multiple by not including those expenditures.
The P/E ratio has been established as a prime market valuation metric, and the sheer volume of current
and historical data gives the metric weight in regard to stock analysis. Some analysts contend that
using the EV/EBITDA ratio versus the P/E ratio as a valuation method produces better investment
returns.
Both metrics have inherent advantages and disadvantages. As with any financial metric, it's
important to consider several financial ratios including the P/E ratio and the EV/EBITDA
ratio in determining whether a company is fairly valued, overvalued, or undervalued.
Using this approach, public companies in the same industry of a similar size, age, and growth rate
are identified, and averages of their multiples or valuations are calculated for comparison to the
subject company. This gives the appraiser an idea of where the subject private company fits within
the industry and how it compares to its competitors.
2) Income Approach
The basis of the income or present value approach is the premise that the subject company’s current
full cash value is equal to the present value of future cash flows it will provide over its remaining
economic life.
Estimating the revenue growth of the subject company by averaging the revenue growth rates of
the comparable companies and then adjusting for company specific factors is the first step. After
estimating revenue growth, expected changes in operating expenses, taxes, and working capital are
estimated. Once all of these estimates are completed, free cash flow is calculated, providing the
operating cash remaining after the deduction of expenditures. The next step is calculating the
average beta (measure of market risk, disregarding debt), tax rates, and debt-to-equity (D/E) ratios
of comparable companies, and ultimately, the weighted average cost of capital (WACC).
WACC - For a private company valuation, the cost of debt can be determined by examining the
subject company’s credit history and the interest rates being charged to the company. Equity can
be estimated using the capital asset pricing model (CAPM). The debt and equity ratings and the
cost of capital for comparable companies are also factored into WACC calculations. Beta section
can be referred to see how it can be calculated for private firms.
Regardless of the method used for estimating the subject private company’s valuation,
several discounts need to be taken into consideration and applied where appropriate:
3) Control discount: If a minority stake in a private company is sold, a value adjustment needs
to be made to account for this lack of operational and financial control. This can also apply in
a public company but will have a much smaller impact; the impact in private companies is
much more significant due to the lower level of transparency associated with private businesses.
Unlike other valuations, DCF relies on Free Cash Flows. To a larger extent, Free Cash Flows
(FCF) are a reliable measure that eliminate the subjective accounting policies and window
dressing involved in reported earnings.
Besides explicitly considering the business drivers involved, DCF allows investors to incorporate
key changes in the business strategy in the valuation model, which will otherwise not be
considered in other valuation models (like relative, APV, etc.)
While other methods like relative valuation are fairly easier to calculate, their reliability becomes
questionable when the entire sector or market is over-valued or under-valued. DCF cuts across
through this quandary and predicts the best possible intrinsic value.
Important Q/A
Q 2. Accretive, Dilute EPS and Deal Structure, Rationale behind it. Explain accretion / dilution
and effect on P/E
Ans2.
Analysing whether a specific M&A deal is a valuable one with long-term growth prospects is a
complex undertaking that covers tremendous amounts of information and forecasting. An
accretion/dilution analysis helps decision-makers in the M&A process determine whether or not they
should proceed with a proposed deal.
An accretion/dilution analysis is a simple test used to evaluate the merit of a proposed merger or
acquisition deal. The accretion/dilution analysis determines if the post-transaction earnings per
share (EPS) is increased or decreased.
An increase in pro-forma EPS is regarded as an accretion, while a decrease is regarded as a dilution.
Simple test to check whether EPS increases or decreases post-merger. If there is synergies achieved
in the deal, there will be accretion.
Process:
1. Calculate each one’s net income
2. Calculate EPS for both the companies
3. Calculate post-merge, net income (combined)
4. Combine shares outstanding of both the companies
5. Use to find new EPS
6. If greater than the previous one, Accretion has happened.
An accretion/dilution analysis is not a composite of the complete picture, nor does it contemplate
how a newly combined entity operates, adjusts, or takes advantage of opportunities years down the
road.
Q 6. How do you value banks and financial institutions differently from other companies?
Ans 6.
For relative valuation, the methodologies (public comps and precedent transactions) are the same, but
the metrics and multiples are different:
1. You screen based on assets or deposits in addition to the normal criteria.
2. You look at metrics like ROE (Return on Equity, Net Income / Shareholders’ Equity), ROA
(Return on Assets, Net Income / Total Assets), and Book Value and Tangible Book Value
rather than Revenue, EBITDA, and so on.
3. You use multiples such as P / E, P / BV, and P / TBV rather than EV / EBITDA.
4. Rather than a traditional DCF, you use 2 different methodologies for intrinsic valuation:
5. In a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) you sum up the present value of a bank’s dividends in
future years and then add it to the present value of the bank’s terminal value, usually basing
that on a P / BV or P / TBV multiple.
6. In a Residual Income Model (also known as an Excess Returns Model), you take the bank’s
current Book Value and simply add the present value of the excess returns to that Book Value
to value it. The “excess return” each year is (ROE * Book Value) – (Cost of Equity * Book
Value) – basically how much the returns exceed your expectations.
You need to use these methodologies and multiples because interest is a critical component of a bank’s
revenue and because debt is a “raw material” rather than just a financing source; also, banks’ book
values are usually very close to their market caps.
Q 9. Walk me through a Dividend Discount Model (DDM) that you would use in place of a
normal DCF for financial institutions.
Ans 9.
The mechanics are the same as a DCF, but we use dividends rather than free cash flows:
1. Project out the company’s earnings, down to earnings per share (EPS).
2. Assume a dividend payout ratio – what percentage of the EPS actually gets paid out to shareholders
in the form of dividends – based on what the firm has done historically and how much regulatory
capital it needs.
3. Use this to calculate dividends over the next 5-10 years.
4. Do a check to make sure that the firm still meets its target Tier 1 Capital and other capital ratios –
if not, reduce dividends.
5. Discount the dividend in each year to its present value based on Cost of Equity – NOT WACC –
and then sum these up.
6. Calculate terminal value based on P / BV and Book Value in the final year, and then discount this
to its present value based on Cost of Equity.
Q 10. If I’m working with a public company in a DCF, how do I calculate its per-share value?
Ans 10.
Once you get to Enterprise Value, ADD cash and then subtract debt, preferred stock, and
noncontrolling interest (and any other debt-like items) to get to Equity Value.
Then, you need to use a circular calculation that takes into account the basic shares outstanding,
options, warrants, convertibles, and other dilutive securities. It’s circular because the dilution from
these depends on the per-share price – but the per-share price depends on number of shares
outstanding, which depends on the per-share price.
To resolve this, you need to enable iterative calculations in Excel so that it can cycle through to find
an approximate per-share price.
Q 11, Explain why we would use the mid-year convention in a DCF.
Ans 11.
You use it to represent the fact that a company’s cash flow does not come 100% at the end of each
year – instead, it comes in evenly throughout each year.
In a DCF without mid-year convention, we would use discount period numbers of 1 for the first year,
2 for the second year, 3 for the third year, and so on.
With mid-year convention, we would instead use 0.5 for the first year, 1.5 for the second year, 2.5 for
the third year, and so on.
Q 12. How does the terminal value calculation change when we use the mid-year convention?
Ans 12.
When you’re discounting the terminal value back to the present value, you use different numbers for
the discount period depending on whether you’re using the Multiples Method or Gordon Growth
Method:
• Multiples Method: You add 0.5 to the final year discount number to reflect the fact that you’re
assuming the company gets sold at the end of the year.
• Gordon Growth Method: You use the final year discount number as is, because you’re assuming the
cash flows grow into perpetuity and that they are still received throughout the year rather than just at
the end.