Lecture 01
Lecture 01
https://www.lhpedersen.com/big-data-asset-pricing
Exercises
1. Beta-dollar neutral portfolios
2. Construct value factors
3. Factor replication analysis
4. High-dimensional return prediction
5. Research proposal
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 2
This Lecture: A Primer in Asset Pricing
1. state prices, ψ
2. state price deflator, m
3. risk-neutral probabilities, Q, and the risk-free rate, r f
I Equivalence:
I to each other
I to no arbitrage = law of one price (under technical conditions)
I Terminology:
I i
risk premium = expected excess return = Et (rt+1 )
I f i f i
discount rate: same or rt+1 + Et (rt+1 ) or 1 + rt+1 + Et (rt+1 )
I Ms Mt+1
Notation: mt,s = Mt and mt+1 = mt,t+1 = Mt
I People denote both M and m as state price deflators
I In 1-period models, usually no need to distinguish
I f
Expected returns: 1 = Et [mt+1 (1 + rt+1 i )] i.e.,
+ rt+1
I f 1 i
risk-free: 1 + rt+1 = Et [mt+1 ] and risky 0 = Et [mt+1 rt+1 ]
I i ] = (1 + r f )Cov [−m
Covariances matter: Et [rt+1 i
t+1 t t+1 , rt+1 ]
I Intuition?
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 11
Deeper Answer
Question: What determines prices and expected returns?
Deeper answer from asset pricing without frictions:
m + how it is determined
I 3 frameworks for determining m (see book by Duffie (2010)):
Condition m Focus of
A. No arbitrage Must exist, can be inferred from prices Derivatives
B. Agent optimality Agent’s marginal utility Institutional
C. Equilibrium Representative agent’s marginal utility Macro-finance
or equivalently that
i 1
0 = Et [mt+1 rt+1 ] and Et [mt+1 ] = f
1 + rt+1
t t+1 x 0r
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 16
Portfolios and Excess Returns
I Portfolio’s excess return, wt+1 f
− 1 − rt+1 , is super simple:
wt
xt0 rt+1
xt0 rt+1
Result
For any a > 0, the portfolio, xt = aVart (rt+1 )−1 Et (rt+1 ), is
mean-variance efficient. The “tangency portfolio” corresponds to
a choice of a such that portfolios weights add up to one, 10 xt = 1.
∗
For any a, the portfolio return, r t+1 =x0t rt+1 , yields beta-pricing:
i
Et [rt+1 ] = βti λt
∗ ,r i )
Cov(rt+1
for all i, where βti = t+1 ∗ )
and λt = Et (rt+1
∗ )
Vart (rt+1
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 19
m-Pricing Implies β-Pricing with Tradable Factor, cont.
I Proof:
I Look for tangency portfolio x ∈ RN with excess return
x
rt+1 = x 0 rt+1 that maximizes the following, for any γ > 0
γ
max Et (x 0 rt+1 ) − Vart (x 0 rt+1 )
x 2
I First order condition: 0 = E t (rt+1 ) − γVart (rt+1 )x
I Solution: x = γ1 Vart (rt+1 )−1 Et (rt+1 )
I Note that Et (rt+1 ) = γVart (rt+1 )x so
i
Et (rt+1 ) = βti γVart (rt+1
x
)
Result
b
The regression of −mt+1 on the assets, rt+1 = bt0 rt+1 , is proportional to the
tangency portfolio since b t = 1
f
1+rt+1
Vart (rt+1 )−1 Et [rt+1 ].
Result
b
The regression of m on the assets, r t+1 = bt0 rt+1 , has β-pricing (because all
mean-variance efficient portfolios have β-pricing)
Result
Any state price deflator can be written
1
mt+1 = f
1 − Et [rt+1 ]0 Vart (rt+1 )−1 (rt+1 − Et [rt+1 ]) + εt+1
1 + rt+1
I “Mimicking portfolio”: 1
f
1+rt+1
Et [rt+1 ]0 Vart (rt+1 )−1 rt+1
I The part of −mt+1 that yields beta pricing
j ∗ σt (m) σt (mt+1 ) f
SRt (rt+1 ) ≤ SRt (rt+1 )= min ≤ = (1+rt+1 )σt (mt+1 )
m: m prices rt+1 Et (m) Et (mt+1 )
I Proof
I The variance of m using the projection from previous slides:
1 2 0 −1
Vart (mt+1 ) = ( ) Et [rt+1 ] Vart (rt+1 ) Et [rt+1 ] + Vart (εt+1 )
f
1 + rt+1
I Recall: Et (mt+1 ) = 1 so
1+r f
t+1
σt (mt+1 ) q
= f )2 Var (ε
Et [rt+1 ]0 Vart (rt+1 )−1 Et [rt+1 ] + (1 + rt+1 t t+1 )
Et (mt+1 )
I SR of tangency:
∗ ) q
Et (rt+1 b 0 E (r ) E [r ]0 Vart (rt+1 )−1 Et [rt+1 ]
σt (r ∗ )
= q t t t+1 = q t t+1 = Et [rt+1 ]0 Vart (rt+1 )−1 Et [rt+1 ]
0 0 −1
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
t+1 b t Var (r
t t+1 t)b Et [rt+1 ] Vart (rt+1 ) Et [rt+1 ]
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 25
β-Pricing Implies m-Pricing
Result
If there exists portfolio with excess return r ∗ s.t. for all i
i
Et [rt+1 ] = βti λt
∗ i
Cov(rt+1 ,rt+1 ) ∗
where βti = ∗ )
Vart (rt+1
and λt = Et (rt+1 ), then
∗
1 ∗ ∗ Et (rt+1 )
mt+1 = f
1 − (rt+1 − Et (rt+1 )) ∗
1 + rt+1 Vart (rt+1 )
i f
satisfies 0 = Et [mt+1 rt+1 ] and Et (mt+1 ) = 1/(1 + rt+1 )
I Proof:
I (Inspection) Just check
I (Constructive) Assume m = a + br ∗ and solve for a and b
Result
If all investors maximize SR, the market portfolio, r MKT , has
beta pricing
i
Et [rt+1 ] = βti λt
i ,r MKT )
Cov(rt+1
where βti = t+1
MKT )
Vart (rt+1
MKT )
and λt = Et (rt+1
Further, the following sdf prices all assets
!
MKT )
Et (rt+1
1 MKT MKT
mt+1 = 1 − (rt+1 − Et (rt+1 ))
f
1 + rt+1 Vart (rt+1
MKT )
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 28
Is β-Pricing the Same as Market Efficiency/ Rationality? I
I Rational investors imply the existence of m- and β-pricing
I Is the reverse also true? I.e., does β-pricing imply rationality?
rt = |{z}
α + β f t + εt
|{z} |{z} |{z} |{z}
N×1 N×1 N×K K ×1 N×1
Vart (f k )b λt
where λkt = Vartt+1 ∗ )
(rt+1
k
See Cochrane (2009) ch. 12 for more details and test statistics
E(rt ) = α + βE(ft )
I Variance-covariance matrix
Var(rt ) = βVar(ft )β 0 + Var(εit )
I Regression coefficients
β = Σrf Σ−1
ff and α = E(rt ) − βE(ft )
rt = α + βft + εt
I Conclusion
β = Σrf Σ−1
ff and α = E(rt ) − βE(ft )
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 39
Economic Implications of Factor Models
I Suppose that we have a single factor f
I Want to examine whether f “prices” all the assets, r 1 , ..., r N
(unconditonal model)
Cov(rti ,ft )
I That is, for all i , E[rti ] = β i λ where β i = Var(ft )
I This restriction can also be written as
rti = αi + β i ft + εt
Cov(rti ,ft )
I Slope is right, β i = Var(ft )
, and intercept is αi = β i (λ − E[ft ])
α=0
I This is obvious when there is 1 factor, see previous slide
I With 1 tradable factor, this is just the definition of β-pricing
I With multiple factors: see next slide
I Intuitively, this is because expected excess returns are purely
driven by factor exposures
I Said differently, if you hedge out factor exposures, then the
expected return is zero
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 41
Multiple Tradable Factors—Why Alpha is Still Zero
P
Suppose there exists b s.t. rt∗ = k bk ftk = b 0 ft has β-pricing
I Then
Cov(b 0 ft , rt+1
i
)
E(rti ) = 0
Et (b 0 ft )
Vart (b ft )
Et (b 0 ft )
= Σi b
Vart (b 0 ft ) r f
Et (b 0 ft )
= Σ i Σ−1 Σff b
Vart (b 0 ft ) r f ff
=β i bˉ
Et (b 0 ft )
where bˉ = Vart (b 0 ft ) Σff b and using β i = Σr i f Σ−1
ff
I Since f k is itself tradable with a beta equal to
e k = (0, ..., 0, 1, 0, ..., 0), we conclude that bˉk = E (ftk )
I So: αi + β i E(ft ) = E(rti ) = β i bˉ = β i E (ft )
I In other words, we see that, for all i,
αi = 0
Electronic copy available at: https://ssrn.com/abstract=4068545
c Lasse Heje Pedersen 42
References Cited in Slides I