Stock Market 23 Sep 2024 **

Indices
20-Sep-24 Index Change 1D FYTD CYTD 1M 3M 6M 1Y 3Y (pa) 5Y (pa) 10Y (pa)

KSE100 82,074.45 615.16 0.76% 4.63% 31.42% 5.57% 4.15% 24.86% 78.85% 20.83% 20.65% 10.58%
STOCK MARKET KSE30 26,034.31 234.45 0.91% 2.98% 25.31% 5.05% 2.34% 19.80% 61.83% 12.22% 11.51% 2.36%

FIXED INCOME KMI30 130,561.62 664.65 0.51% 3.27% 24.67% 5.31% 2.66% 18.06% 68.71% 20.60% 20.68% 10.33%

CURRENCIES Market Valuations Trading (PKR Million) Settlement Leverage

Listed Securities 529 Regular 30,189 Volume (Million) 315 PKR Million Rate (%)
COMMODITIES
Market Cap (PKR Billion) 10,723 Future 6,525 %age 59 MTS 7,370 19.71
ECONOMY Free Float 27.8% NDM 1,868 Value (PKR Million) 20,885 Deliverable Futures 23,231 -
Trailing P/E (KSE-100) 6.79x Bonds 0 %age 61 Cash Futures 75 -
Dividend Yield 8.76% Total 38,581 Total 30,676 -

KSE-100 Rolling Returns (pa) 12M Rolling Dividends (PKR billion) Leverage (PKR billion)
40% 800 40
DFC MTS
Optimus Research 700
30
research@ocm.com.pk 20% 600
+9221 35296888 500 20
0% 400
10
Sep-19

Sep-22
Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-23

Sep-24
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24

* 300
Last working day’s
closing prices -20% 200 0

Dec-23
Oct-23

Apr-24
Mar-24

Jun-24
Jan-24

Aug-24
May-24

Jul-24
Sep-23

Nov-23

Feb-24

Sep-24
Aug-22

Aug-23
Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-24
Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22

Feb-23

Feb-24
3Y 5Y
 Fixed Income 23 Sep 2024 **

Policy Rates PKRV KIBOR

Policy Rate 17.50% 20-Sep-24 19-Sep-24 Change 20-Sep-24 19-Sep-24 Change
Reverse Repo Rate 18.50% 1M 17.49% 17.51% -0.02% 1M 17.81% 17.81% 0.00%
Repo Rate 16.50% 3M 16.70% 16.91% -0.21% 3M 16.99% 17.09% -0.10%
STOCK MARKET
Min Profit Rate 16.00% 6M 15.97% 16.05% -0.08% 6M 16.29% 16.45% -0.16%
FIXED INCOME 1Y 15.21% 15.50% -0.29% 1Y 15.71% 16.05% -0.34%
CURRENCIES National Savings Schemes 3Y 12.98% 13.73% -0.75%

COMMODITIES Special Savings 15.34% 5Y 13.17% 13.62% -0.45% O/S Net Liquidity Injection (PKR Billion)
Defence Savings 14.39% 10Y 12.87% 12.88% -0.01% OMO 11,247
ECONOMY 15Y
Regular Income 14.52% 12.70% 12.78% -0.08% SBP Window -296
Pensioners/Behbood 15.36% 20Y 12.62% 12.68% -0.06% Net Amount 10,951

Policy Rate History Treasury Yield Curve Net OMO (PKR Billion)
25% 20% 15,000

Optimus Research 20%

18% 10,000
research@ocm.com.pk
+9221 35296888 15%
16%
5,000
10%
14%
* Last working day’s
closing prices 5% 0
12%

Jan-22

Jan-23

Jan-24
May-22

May-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

May-24

Sep-24
Mar-20

Mar-21

Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
Sep-19

Sep-20

Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24

10Y

15Y

20Y
3M
1M

6M

1Y

3Y

5Y
 Currencies 23 Sep 2024 **

Major Currencies (vs.PKR) PKR/USD USD Forward Rates

350
20-Sep-24 19-Sep-24 Change 20-Sep-24 Premium
USD 277.8379 277.9132 -0.0753 Ready 277.8379 -
300
GBP 369.8161 368.1934 1.6227 1W 278.2497 7.71%
STOCK MARKET
EUR 310.1921 309.8316 0.3605 250 1M 279.5895 7.57%
FIXED INCOME 2M 281.1449 7.14%
JPY 1.9354 1.9506 -0.0152
200
CURRENCIES 3M 282.4434 6.63%
Other Currencies 4M 284.0623 6.72%
COMMODITIES 150

Mar-24
Mar-22

Mar-23
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
20-Sep-24 19-Sep-24 Change 5M 285.6287 6.73%
ECONOMY AED 75.6433 75.6659 -0.0226 6M 286.9940 6.59%
AUD 189.2493 189.5785 -0.3292 12M 298.2874 7.36%
CAD 204.7216 205.0037 -0.2821 Competitor Currencies (vs.USD)
REER
CHF 327.8129 328.5609 -0.7480
190 110
CNY 39.3951 39.3071 0.0880
170
HKD 35.6580 35.6653 -0.0073
Optimus Research 150 100
IDR 0.0183 0.0182 0.0001
research@ocm.com.pk 130
+9221 35296888 INR 3.3258 3.3231 0.0027 110 90
KRW 0.2082 0.2092 -0.0010 90
Sep-21

Sep-22

Sep-23

Sep-24
Mar-22

Mar-23

Mar-24
* Last working day’s QAR 76.2087 76.2294 -0.0207
80
closing prices SAR 74.0407 74.0588 -0.0181

Aug-19

Aug-20

Aug-21

Aug-22

Aug-23

Aug-24
Feb-20

Feb-21

Feb-22

Feb-23

Feb-24
PKR INR BDT CNY
THB 8.4028 8.3797 0.0231
 Commodities 23 Sep 2024 **

Energy Chemicals & Fertilizers

Price Chg. 1D 1M 1Y Price Chg. 1W 1M 1Y
Arab Light ($/bbl) 74.86 0.51 74.35 76.95 98.13 Urea ($/ton) 336 6 1.7% 0.1% -12.3%
Brent ($/bbl) 73.69 -1.19 74.88 77.22 93.27 DAP ($/ton) 525 3 0.6% 1.1% -6.7%
STOCK MARKET
WTI ($/bbl) 71 -0.16 -0.2% -2.8% -21.1% Phos Acid ($/ton) 985 0 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
FIXED INCOME R-Bay ($/ton) 107.4 1 1.3% -4.6% -10.9% DAP-Phos ($/ton) 62 3 5.0% 10.6% -38.0%
CURRENCIES PVC ($/ton) 740 -14 -1.9% -5.6% -16.9%
Agriculture Ethylene ($/ton) 955 -15 -1.5% -3.0% 9.8%
COMMODITIES
Price Chg. 1D 1M 1Y PVC-Ethylene ($/ton) 272 -7 -2.4% -9.7% -41.3%
ECONOMY Cotton (¢/Ib) 74 0 0.6% 6.0% -12.5% PTA ($/ton) 670 5 0.8% -8.8% -22.1%
Wheat ($/ton) 209 1 0.4% 6.4% -1.9%
PX ($/ton) 850 10 1.2% -8.6% -26.7%
Sugar ($/ton) 501 13 2.8% 25.3% -13.7%
Palm Oil ($/ton) 961 38 4.1% 7.1% 24.1% PTA-PX(PTA ($/ton) 101 -2 -1.7% -10.2% 21.4%
Corn ($/ton) 158 -2 -1.0% 2.1% -15.9% PSF ($/ton) 1,091 -6 -0.6% -4.1% -1.4%
MEG $/ton) 535 0 0.0% -6.1% 7.0%
PSF-PTA-MEG ($/ton) 326 -11 -3.1% 7.2% 73.5%
Optimus Research
research@ocm.com.pk
+9221 35296888 Metals Metals
Price Chg. 1D 1M 1Y Price Chg. 1D 1M 1Y

*
Gold ($/oz) 2,647 33 1.2% 5.2% 37.5% HRC ($/ton) 447 7 1.6% 1.3% -18.7%
Last working day’s
closing prices Silver ($/oz) 31 0 0.2% 8.4% 33.7% CRC ($/ton) 518 6 1.2% -1.4% -18.5%
Copper ($/ton) 9,554 -33 -0.3% 4.7% 18.2% HRC-CRC ($/ton) 71 -1 -1.4% -15.7% -16.9%
 Economy 23 Sep 2024 **

National CPI (Y/Y) National CPI (M/M) SPI (Combined)

Aug-24 Jul-24 Jun-24 May-24 Aug-24 Jul-24 Jun-24 May-24 W/W Y/Y
Headline 9.63% 11.09% 12.57% 11.77% Headline 0.38% 2.10% 0.46% -3.24% 19-09-24 -0.52% 12.72%

STOCK MARKET Core 11.88% 13.82% 14.12% 14.17% Core 0.47% 0.89% 0.74% 0.47% 12-09-24 0.01% 14.36%
Food 3.20% 2.56% 2.09% 1.33% Food 1.32% 4.13% 0.17% -6.75% 05-09-24 -0.15% 14.07%
FIXED INCOME
Energy 27.61% 36.34% 51.91% 47.70% Energy -2.53% 0.01% 0.57% -2.74% 29-08-24 -0.62% 15.34%
CURRENCIES
Money Supply (liabilities) Money Supply (Assets) Current Account (USD Million)
COMMODITIES
06-Sep-24 PKR BN Y/Y 06-Sep-24 PKR BN Y/Y Aug-24 Aug-23 Δ YTD FY24 FY23
ECONOMY M2 35,645 13.9% Fiscal Brwg. 30,574 28.2% Current A/C 75 -152 227 -171 -665 -3,275
CiC 9,092 6.6% Commodity 1,139 -13.1% - Trade Bal -2,227 -1,816 -411 -4,672 -22,065 -24,819
DTL 26,435 16.7% Pvt. Credit 9,155 3.0% - Services Bal -280 -220 -60 -471 -2,306 -1,042
Others 118 16.2% PSE Credit 1,721 4.9% - Income Bal -521 -381 -140 -1,285 -8,623 -5,765
M0 11,508 7.6% NFA -2,205 -12.5% - Transfers 3,103 2,265 838 6,257 32,329 28,351

Optimus Research GDP Growth Fiscal (%GDP) FX Reserves (USD Million)

research@ocm.com.pk
FY24 FY23 FY22 FY24 FY23 FY22 SBP Banks Total Δ
+9221 35296888
GDP 2.4% -0.2% 6.2% Total Revenue 12.5% 11.4% 12.1% 13-09-24 9,510 5,317 14,827 30
Agriculture 6.3% 2.3% 4.2% Total Expend 19.4% 19.1% 20.0% 06-09-24 9,467 5,330 14,796 56
* Last working day’s
closing prices Industrial 1.2% -3.7% 7.0% Budget Bal. -6.8% -7.7% -7.9% 30-08-24 9,437 5,303 14,740 -36
Services 1.2% 0.0% 6.7% Primary Bal. 0.9% -0.8% -3.1% 23-08-24 9,403 5,373 14,776 109
Debt/GDP 67.3% 74.3% 73.9% 16-08-24 9,292 5,376 14,667 22