About this spreadsheet….

Why: After years of having to put together and teach time series forecasting, i thought it about time i make it
easier to get started. This isn't the most advanced method of forecasting seasonality and trend cycles, but its
pretty rugged.

How: Decide what granularity you capture time series data to forecast. Quarterly, weekly or daily. Choose the
worksheet and add your data. Although you might have ore data, use the most recent three cycles of data that
you have. If you have less than three cycles, try and get at least one cycle and understand your ability to forecast
is limited. Always check the chart and "see" how well the model forecast the historical data. If it "fits" then
believe the forecast going out.
Can I change and share this spreadsheet: Yes. It is yours to hack and improve. Only restriction is you cannot sell it
alone. You can use, coach and even teach using it, you can't sell this spreadsheet. When sharing, all I ask is that
you leave this credit in place somewhere so people know the original source.

About me….
I develop and teach how to use data in software development and operations teams for coaching or forecasting.

- Forecasting using Data workshop. Teach how to use these spreadsheets with practical hands-on examples based
on your (and my) specific examples. Often run internally, sometimes publically.

- Data Driven Coaching workshop. Teach how to develop data driven approaches to improvement based on
balancing multiple competing metrics. Often run internally, sometimes publically.

- Custom Dashboards or giving advice on your current dashboards. Take the next step in customizing our
spreadsheets or deploying more advanced versions in Tableau or Power BI.

- Quantitative consulting or advice - give me a chance to answer something you need to know. I'll work with your
teams in designing a prediction system or delivering a compelling visual demonstrting the issues.

Interested in chatting? Email me at troy.magennis@focusedobjective.com

Interested in stalking? Follow me on twitter @t_magennis
(best way to hear about new and improved spreadsheets like this)
 time i make it
cycles, but its

ly. Choose the

cles of data that
ability to forecast
t "fits" then

s you cannot sell it

g, all I ask is that

ng or forecasting.

on examples based

ent based on

mizing our

I'll work with your

es.

m
Date of Incoming Demand Item

Predic
No day of week seasonal patt

40

35

30

25

20

15

10

0
Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Mon Tue Wed
Week 15-Jan-18 Week 22-Jan-18

Actual Count Linear Fit

Predictio
Week of month seasonal pattern
120

100

80

60
 80

60

40

20

1/12/2018
1/12/2018
0
1/12/2018

Week 4

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3
1/12/2018
1/12/2018 Sep- October-17 November-17
-20 tember-
1/12/2018 17
1/12/2018
1/12/2018
-40
1/12/2018
1/12/2018 Actual Count Linear Fit
1/12/2018
1/12/2018

1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018
1/15/2018

1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018
1/16/2018

1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018
1/17/2018

1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018
1/18/2018

1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018
1/19/2018

1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018
1/22/2018

1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018
1/23/2018

1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018
1/24/2018

1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018
1/25/2018

1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
1/26/2018
 Prediction by day of week
day of week seasonal pattern. Linear trend outperformed prediction.

Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri Mon Tue Wed Thu Fri
Week 22-Jan-18 Week 29-Jan-18 Week 05-Feb-18

ctual Count Linear Fit Rounded Prediction Significant Prediction Error

Prediction by week of month.

of month seasonal pattern exists. Prediction outperformed linear trend.
 Week 5

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3
November-17 December-17 January-18 February-18

Actual Count Linear Fit Rounded Prediction Significant Prediction Error

Settings Exclude Dates

Settings for the Daily chart

Number of actual weeks history

2

Number of weeks to forecast

2

Axis date format Dayof week format

dd-MMM-yy ddd
ddd = shorter weekday names
dddd = long weekday names

Settings that apply to BOTH charts

Round to Round forecast to n decimal places

2

Significant Error Multiplier

3
(when the actual is more or less than 'x' times the predicted)

Settings for the Weekly Chart

Number of actual months history

4

Number of months to forecast

1
-18
Week 3
Reason (enter the reason this date is an outlier and special case. Consider if this special case will occur in the future
occur in the future
 Quarter Name Predicted Absolute
Year (mandatory) Actual Value Value Error x
Year 1 Q1 1 1.35 0.346 1
Q2 2 1.29 0.713 2
Q3 3 2.97 0.027 3
Q4 4 2.90 1.096 4
Year 2 Q1 2 1.91 0.088 5
Q2 1 1.78 0.776 6
Q3 4 4.01 0.006 7
Q4 3 3.83 0.833 8
Year 3 Q1 3 2.48 0.522 9
Q2 2 2.27 0.266 10
Q3 5 5.04 0.039 11
Q4 4 4.76 0.762 12
Year 4 Q1 3.04 13
Q2 2.76 14
Q3 6.07 15
Q4 5.69 16

Need to NOT start or end at Q1?

Easy. Make Row 12 the most recent sample, Error
enter its quarter value and then fill in each
quarter above that. You need the same quater MAE 0.456
name to correctly match. You will need AT least
one sample for Q1, Q2, Q3 and Q4; ideally three
samples of each.
 Quarterly
Average
Linear Trend Quarterly Factor Adjustment
Value (S) Factor Chart
1.79 0.557 0.750
1.98 1.008 0.649 7
2.17 1.381 1.368 6
2.36 1.694 1.230
2.55 0.784 0.750 5

2.74 0.365 0.649 4

2.93 1.366 1.368
3
3.12 0.963 1.230
3.31 0.908 0.750 2
3.49 0.572 0.649
1
3.68 1.358 1.368
3.87 1.033 1.230 Year 1 Year 1 Year 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 2 Ye
Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q
4.06 0.750 Actual 1 2 3 4 2 1
4.25 0.649 Value
4.44 1.368 Linear 1.79 1.98 2.17 2.36 2.55 2.74 2.
Trend
4.63 1.230 Value
Pre- 1.35 1.29 2.97 2.90 1.91 1.78 4.
dicted
Linear Trend Value
Calculations
Intercept 1.606 Actual Value
Slope 0.189

These calculations are used to compute the trendline

And how far each value is away from this trend.
1 Year 1 Year 1 Year 2 Year 2 Year 2 Year 2 Year 3 Year 3 Year 3 Year 3 Year 4 Year 4 Year 4 Year 4
Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4
3 4 2 1 4 3 3 2 5 4

8 2.17 2.36 2.55 2.74 2.93 3.12 3.31 3.49 3.68 3.87 4.06 4.25 4.44 4.63

9 2.97 2.90 1.91 1.78 4.01 3.83 2.48 2.27 5.04 4.76 3.04 2.76 6.07 5.69

Actual Value Linear Trend Value Predicted Value

 Week of Month
Name Value Predicted Absolute
Month (mandatory) (mandatory) Value Error x
Month 1 Week 1 1 1.384 0.384 1
Week 2 2 1.304 0.696 2
Week 3 3 3.006 0.006 3
Week 4 4 2.920 1.080 4
Week 5 0.000 0.000 5
Month 2 Week 1 2 1.911 0.089 6
Week 2 1 1.764 0.764 7
Week 3 4 3.999 0.001 8
Week 4 3 3.825 0.825 9
Week 5 0.000 0.000 10
Month 3 Week 1 3 2.437 0.563 11
Week 2 2 2.225 0.225 12
Week 3 5 4.991 0.009 13
Week 4 4 4.729 0.729 14
Week 5 0.000 0.000 15
Month 4 Week 1 2.963 16
Week 2 2.685 17
Week 3 5.983 18
Week 4 5.633 19
Week 5 0.000 20

Error
MAE 0.358
 Weekly Average
Linear Trend Adjustment
Value (T) Weekly Factor (S) Factor Chart
1.896 0.527 0.730
7
2.040 0.980 0.639
2.184 1.373 1.376
6
2.329 1.718 1.254
2.473 0.000 0.000
2.617 0.764 0.730 5
2.761 0.362 0.639
2.905 1.377 1.376 4
3.050 0.984 1.254
3.194 0.000 0.000 3
3.338 0.899 0.730
3.482 0.574 0.639
2
3.626 1.379 1.376
3.771 1.061 1.254
3.915 0.000 0.000 1

4.059 0.730
4.203 0.639 0

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Week 4

Week 5
4.347 1.376
4.491 1.254 Month 1 Month 2
4.636 0.000
Linear Trend Value (T) V

Linear Trend
Calculations
Intercept 1.752
Slope 0.144

These calculations are used to compute the trendline

And how far each value is away from this trend.
 Week 4

Week 5

Week 1

Week 2

Linear Trend Value (T)

Week 3

Month 2
Week 4

Week 5

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Value (mandatory)
Month 3
Week 4

Week 5

Week 1

Week 2

Week 3

Month 4

Predicted Value
Week 4

Week 5
 Day of week Predicted Absolute Linear Trend
Week (mandatory) Actual Value Value Error x Value
Week 1 Monday 1 1.39 0.394 1 1.97
Tuesday 2 1.31 0.691 2 2.12
Wednesday 3 3.02 0.021 3 2.27
Thursday 4 2.93 1.069 4 2.41
Friday 3 2.89 0.115 5 2.56
Week 2 Monday 2 1.91 0.089 6 2.71
Tuesday 1 1.76 0.761 7 2.85
Wednesday 4 4.00 0.004 8 3.00
Thursday 3 3.82 0.819 9 3.15
Friday 4 3.71 0.290 10 3.29
Week 3 Monday 3 2.43 0.573 11 3.44
Tuesday 2 2.21 0.212 12 3.59
Wednesday 5 4.97 0.029 13 3.73
Thursday 4 4.71 0.708 14 3.88
Friday 4 4.53 0.535 15 4.03
Week 4 Monday 2.94 16 4.17
Tuesday 2.66 17 4.32
Wednesday 5.95 18 4.46
Thursday 5.60 19 4.61
Friday 5.36 20 4.76

Linear Trend
Error Calculations
MAE 0.421 Intercept
Slope

These calculations are used to compu

And how far each value is away from
 Day Average
Adjustment
Day Factor (S) Factor Chart
0.506 0.706 7
0.943 0.617
1.323 1.332 6
1.657 1.214
1.172 1.127
5
0.739 0.706
0.350 0.617
4
1.333 1.332
0.953 1.214
3
1.215 1.127
0.872 0.706
2
0.558 0.617
1.340 1.332
1
1.031 1.214
0.994 1.127
0.706 0
Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday

Monday

Tuesday

Wednesday

Thursday
Friday

Friday

Friday
0.617
1.332
1.214 Week 1 Week 2 Week 3
1.127
Linear Trend Value Actual Value Pred

1.829
0.146

e calculations are used to compute the trendline

ow far each value is away from this trend.
 Monday

Tuesday

Actual Value
Wednesday

Week 3
Thursday

Friday

Monday

Tuesday

Predicted Value
Wednesday

Week 4
Thursday

Friday
 Last 2 Weeks
Week of Excluding
Indirect Date Truncated Date Year Month Month Weekends
1/12/2018
1/15/2018
1/16/2018
1/17/2018
1/18/2018
1/19/2018
1/22/2018
1/23/2018
1/24/2018
1/25/2018
1/26/2018
1/29/2018
1/30/2018
1/31/2018
2/1/2018
2/2/2018
2/5/2018
2/6/2018
2/7/2018
2/8/2018
2/9/2018
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2
1/12/2018 1/12/2018 2018 1 Week 2

1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/15/2018 1/15/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/16/2018 1/16/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/17/2018 1/17/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/18/2018 1/18/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3
1/19/2018 1/19/2018 2018 1 Week 3

1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4

1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/22/2018 1/22/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/23/2018 1/23/2018 2018 1 Week 4

1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4

1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/24/2018 1/24/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/25/2018 1/25/2018 2018 1 Week 4

1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4

1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
1/26/2018 1/26/2018 2018 1 Week 4
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Actual Count
Day of Actual Count Excludes Time Linear Abs
Week Starting Week Count Excludes Chart Index Linear Fit Error
Fri 12 12 12 1 Err:502 Err:502
Week 15-Jan-18 Mon 13 13 13 2 Err:502 Err:502
Tue 14 14 14 3 Err:502 Err:502
Wed 15 15 15 4 Err:502 Err:502
Thu 16 16 16 5 Err:502 Err:502
Fri 17 17 17 6 Err:502 Err:502
Week 22-Jan-18 Mon 18 18 18 7 Err:502 Err:502
Tue 19 19 19 8 Err:502 Err:502
Wed 20 20 20 9 Err:502 Err:502
Thu 21 21 21 10 Err:502 Err:502
Fri 22 22 22 11 Err:502 Err:502
Week 29-Jan-18 Mon 12 Err:502
Tue 13 Err:502
Wed 14 Err:502
Thu 15 Err:502
Fri 16 Err:502
Week 05-Feb-18 Mon 17 Err:502
Tue 18 Err:502
Wed 19 Err:502
Thu 20 Err:502
Fri 21 Err:502
 Significant
Weekday Absolute Rounded Rounded Prediction
Adjustment Prediction Error Prediction Abs Error Error Day of Week
1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Mon
0.9117647059 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Tue
0.9705882353 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Wed
1.0294117647 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Thu
1.0882352941 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Fri
1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0.9117647059 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Linear Fit
0.9705882353 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Intercept
1.0294117647 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Slope
1.0882352941 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Mean Abs Error
0.9117647059 Err:502 Err:502 Round. AE.
0.9705882353 Err:502 Err:502 Linear Abs Error
1.0294117647 Err:502 Err:502
1.0882352941 Err:502 Err:502 Label
1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0.9117647059 Err:502 Err:502
0.9705882353 Err:502 Err:502
1.0294117647 Err:502 Err:502
1.0882352941 Err:502 Err:502
1 Err:502 Err:502
 Week of
Average Adjustment Last 6 Months Month Month
15.500 0.912 9/26/2017 September-17 Week 4
16.500 0.971 10/3/2017 October-17 Week 1
17.500 1.029 10/10/2017 Week 2
18.500 1.088 10/17/2017 Week 3
17.000 1.000 10/24/2017 Week 4
10/31/2017 Week 5
11/7/2017 November-17 Week 1
Err:502 11/14/2017 Week 2
Err:502 11/21/2017 Week 3
11/28/2017 Week 4
Err:502 12/5/2017 December-17 Week 1
Err:502 12/12/2017 Week 2
Err:502 12/19/2017 Week 3
12/26/2017 Week 4
1/2/2018 January-18 Week 1
1/9/2018 Week 2
1/16/2018 Week 3
1/23/2018 Week 4
1/30/2018 Week 5
2/6/2018 February-18 Week 1
2/13/2018 Week 2
2/20/2018 Week 3
Actual Time Linear Abs Week Absolute Rounded
Count Index Linear Fit Error Adjustment Prediction Error Prediction
0 1 Err:502 Err:502 1.92513369 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 2 Err:502 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 3 Err:502 Err:502 0.288770053 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 4 Err:502 Err:502 1.804812834 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 5 Err:502 Err:502 1.92513369 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 6 Err:502 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 7 Err:502 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 8 Err:502 Err:502 0.288770053 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 9 Err:502 Err:502 1.804812834 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 10 Err:502 Err:502 1.92513369 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 11 Err:502 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 12 Err:502 Err:502 0.288770053 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 13 Err:502 Err:502 1.804812834 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 14 Err:502 Err:502 1.92513369 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
0 15 Err:502 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
12 16 Err:502 Err:502 0.288770053 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
75 17 Err:502 Err:502 1.804812834 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
100 18 Err:502 Err:502 1.92513369 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
19 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502
20 Err:502 1 Err:502 Err:502
21 Err:502 0.288770053 Err:502 Err:502
22 Err:502 1.804812834 Err:502 Err:502
 Significant
Rounded Prediction Exponential Exponential
Abs Error Error Fit Error Week of Month Average
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Week 1 0
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Week 2 3
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Week 3 18.75
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Week 4 20
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Week 5 0
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Linear Fit
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Intercept Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Slope Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Mean Abs Error Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Rounded Error Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Linear Abs Error Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Label
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502 Err:502 Err:502 Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Err:502
Adjustment
1
0.2887700534759
1.8048128342246
1.9251336898396
1

Exponential Fit
Err:502 Err:502

Err:502
Demo Exclude Test DayExclude Test Month
1/3/2017 1/1/2017 12/25/2016
1/4/2017 1/2/2017 12/26/2016
1/5/2017 1/3/2017 12/27/2016
1/9/2017 1/4/2017 12/28/2016
1/9/2017 1/5/2017 12/29/2016
1/9/2017 1/6/2017 12/30/2016
1/9/2017 1/7/2017 12/31/2016
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1/11/2017 1/12/2017 1/5/2017
1/11/2017 1/13/2017 1/6/2017
1/11/2017 1/14/2017 1/7/2017
Exclude Test
1/11/2017 1/15/2017 1/8/2017
1. Copy1/16/2017
1/11/2017 and Pste as value1/9/2017
the Exclude Test column
data.
1/11/2017 Set to look
1/17/2017 back 4 weeks.
1/10/2017
2. Observe that the chart for day of week has one
1/11/2017 1/18/2017
major outlier on 1/10/20171/11/2017
3. Add 1/10/17
1/11/2017 1/19/2017 in the exclude date list
1/12/2017
4. Observe that the forecast is linear at "1" back
1/11/2017 1/20/2017
and forwards 1/13/2017
1/11/2017 1/21/2017
5. Observe that the chart1/14/2017
outlier is removed and
chart axis
1/11/2017 are zoomed in1/15/2017
1/22/2017 appropriately
1/11/2017 1/23/2017 1/16/2017
1/11/2017 1/24/2017 1/17/2017
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Compatibility Report for Demand Forecasting.xlsx
Run on 3/12/2019 14:19

If the workbook is saved in an earlier file format or opened in an earlier version

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Significant loss of functionality # of occurrences

One or more functions in this workbook are not available in versions prior to 15209
Excel 2007. When recalculated in earlier versions, these functions will return a
#NAME? error instead of their current results.

Calculations'!B2:B10001

Calculations'!K2:L2

Calculations'!X2:X6

Calculations'!AS2:AS6

Calculations'!K3:L3

Calculations'!AE3:AE201

Calculations'!K4:L2501

Minor loss of fidelity

Some array formulas in this workbook refer to an entire column. In earlier 1

versions of Microsoft Excel, these formulas may be converted to #NUM! errors
when they are recalculated.

Calculations'!AU9

Some cells or styles in this workbook contain formatting that is not supported 15
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 Version

Excel 97-2003

Excel 97-2003

Excel 97-2003