CI Report Spring 2024
CI Report Spring 2024
$500.00
$400.00
$300.00
$200.00
$100.00
$0.00
EV/EBITDA DDM Relative Historical 1/1/25 1/1/26 1/1/27 1/1/28 1/1/29
I conclude that this company’s stock is undervalued, resulting in a margin of safety of 6.6%. Reasons that
the market has placed this stock underweight include:
The market fails to recognize Cigna’s growth in pharmacy benefit and specialty services
The market fails to recognize Cigns’s stable financial performace
Growth and market expansion through strategic investments
The Cigna Group Reports Strong First Quarter 2024 Results, Raises 2024 Outlook: The Cigna Group reported strong first-
quarter 2024 results, driven by growth in its Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare businesses. The net loss was $0.3 billion including
loss due to a non-cash after-tax investment loss related to the impairment of VillageMD equity securities. The adjusted
income from operations increased to $1.9 billion or $6.47 per share. The Cigna Group expects adjusted revenues for full year
2024 to reach at least $235.0 billion, with consolidated adjusted income from operations projected to be at least $8.065
billion, or at least $28.40 per share. This outlook accounts for anticipated share repurchases and dividends for 2024.
The Cigna Group Declares Quarterly Dividend: The Board declares a cash dividend of $1.40 per share of its common stock.
The Cigna Group to Sell Medicare Businesses and CareAllies to Health Care Service Corporation (HCSC): The Cigna Group
(has agreed to sell its Medicare Advantage, Cigna Supplemental Benefits, Medicare Part D, and CareAllies businesses to Health
Care Service Corporation (HCSC) for approximately $3.7 billion. The transaction, expected to close in the first quarter of 2025,
includes a four-year services agreement where Evernorth Health Services will continue to provide pharmacy benefit services
to the Medicare businesses. The move aligns with The Cigna Group's strategy to focus on growth opportunities in its Evernorth
Health Services and Cigna Healthcare portfolios, reaffirming its 2024 outlook and long-term growth target of 10-13%.
Business Description
The Cigna Group, a prominent player in the health insurance industry, is incorporated in Delaware, with its global
headquarters in Bloomfield, Connecticut. It was formed as a result of the merger between Connecticut General Life Insurance
Company (CG) and INA Corporation, with the name "Cigna" derived from combining the names of the merged entities
(CIGNA). In 2018, Cigna expanded its operations further through the acquisition of Express Scripts.
The company operates within the managed care and healthcare
insurance sectors, offering a wide range of products and
services, including medical, dental, disability, life, and accident
insurance. These offerings are primarily distributed through
employers and other groups, such as governmental and non-
governmental organizations, unions, and associations. With the
acquisition of Express Scripts, Cigna also entered the pharmacy
benefit management arena, providing services such as network
pharmacy claims processing, home delivery pharmacy services,
and specialty pharmacy benefit management.
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States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Cigna Group primarily operates through its segments - Evernorth Healthcare Services and Cigna Healthcare. Evernorth
Healthcare Services focuses on providing pharmacy benefits and care solutions, while Cigna Healthcare serves as the health
benefit provider.
Furthermore, the company has a global presence through its subsidiary, Cigna Global Health Benefits, headquartered in
Wilmington, Delaware, with additional operations in Scotland, Belgium, and China. This business unit offers comprehensive
health plans, including options for travel and life insurance coverage.
Cigna Healthcare
Cigna Healthcare segment offers a diverse portfolio of healthcare insurance products and services, catering to both individuals
and employer groups. These offerings include medical, dental, disability, life, and accident insurance, as well as pharmacy
benefit services. Cigna serves various market segments, ranging from large national employers to small businesses, and
provides tailored solutions such as employer medical plans, individual and family medical plans, and Medicare plans. With a
focus on affordability and flexibility, Cigna distributes its products primarily through employers and other groups, ensuring
widespread access to high-quality healthcare coverage.
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States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
In the fourth quarter of 2023, Cigna Group consolidated its U.S. Commercial and U.S. Government operating segments to
create the U.S. Healthcare operating segment. Under its U.S.
Healthcare segment, Cigna operates employer medical plans,
individual and family plans, and Medicare Advantage, Part D, and
Supplement plans. These offerings are designed to meet the diverse
needs of customers across different demographics, providing
comprehensive healthcare benefits and access to a network of
healthcare providers. Additionally, Cigna offers specialty benefits and
solutions aimed at improving the quality of care, lowering costs, and
promoting better health outcomes. These include behavioral health solutions, consumer health engagement programs, cost
containment initiatives, dental solutions, and pharmacy management services.
Internationally, Cigna provides global healthcare offerings to multinational employers and globally mobile individuals, as well
as local health plans to employers and individuals in specific countries. With a focus on keeping employees healthy and
productive, Cigna's international health segment offers a range of insurance and administrative services for medical, dental,
pharmacy, vision, and life risks. Through various distribution channels such as brokers, direct sales, and private exchanges,
Cigna ensures broad access to its healthcare solutions while maintaining its mission of delivering affordable, high-quality care.
Cigna Healthcare, in 2023, reported adjusted revenues of $51.2 billion and pre-tax adjusted income from operations totaling
$4.5 billion. In January 2024, Cigna entered into a definitive agreement to divest its Medicare Advantage, Medicare Stand-
Alone Prescription Drug Plans, Medicare and Other Supplemental Benefits, and CareAllies businesses within the U.S.
Healthcare segment to HCSC for $3.3 billion in cash, subject to regulatory approvals and customary closing conditions.
Other Operations
Other Operations encompasses Cigna Group's remaining business operations, comprising ongoing and exited businesses.
Ongoing businesses include the Corporate-Owned Life Insurance (COLI) segment, which offers permanent insurance contracts
to corporations for coverage on the lives of select employees. Additionally, run-off businesses entail the settlement annuity
business, focusing on closed, single premium annuity contracts, and reinsurance operations, which became inactive after
exiting the variable annuity reinsurance business in 2013. Exited businesses involve international life, accident, and
supplemental benefits, sold to Chubb INA Holdings, Inc. in July 2022, and the divestment of Cigna Sağlık Hayat ve Emeklilik, a
joint venture in Türkiye, in December 2022. In 2023, Other Operations reported adjusted revenues of $0.6 billion and pre-tax
adjusted income from operations of $96 million.
Revenue Drivers
Pharmacy Revenues
Pharmacy revenues for the company primarily stem from
providing pharmacy benefit management services to clients and
customers. Revenue recognition occurs when control of the
promised goods or services is transferred to clients and
customers, reflecting the expected consideration for those
goods or services. The company offers various services
supporting benefit management and claims administration,
including the provision of prescription drugs through
multiple distribution methods such as retail networks,
home delivery, and specialty pharmacies.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Premiums
Premiums and fees are vital revenue sources for Cigna Group, encompassing diverse insurance products and services. The
company earns fees from clients in self-funded group health plans (ASO arrangements) and premiums from insured plans,
subject to regulatory approval. Revenue recognition is based on prior experience or similar policyholder pools. For Medicare
plans, fixed monthly payments from CMS are supplemented by potential quality performance-based revenue. The ACA's
minimum MLR requirements mandate premium refunds if not met. Premium revenue is recognized ratably over the contract
period for various insurance coverages. Adjustments are made for risk-adjusted premium payments, risk-sharing, and rebates
under MLR provisions.
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States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
simplified treatment navigation, and Evernorth Home-Based Care for in-home population health and clinical services. MDLIVE
offers virtual care services, while Pharmacy Solutions combine various programs to coordinate care for customers.
International Health
Catering to multinational employers, intergovernmental and nongovernmental organizations, and globally mobile individuals,
the company provides a comprehensive range of insurance and administrative services covering medical, dental, pharmacy,
vision, life, accidental death and dismemberment, and disability risks. Their global health care offerings focus on ensuring the
health and productivity of employees. Additionally, their local health care offerings encompass medical, dental, pharmacy,
vision, and life coverage for employers and individuals in specific countries where these products and services are available for
purchase.
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States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
the contract period. Other service fees related to administering services to specialty pharmacy manufacturers are also
recorded.
Business Strategy:
Evernorth Health Services aims to expand its market reach by adapting services to evolving customer needs, particularly in
Care Solutions. Enhancing transparency and predictability, seizing biosimilar opportunities, and advancing affordability
initiatives are key priorities. Strategic investments in business, infrastructure, and talent are leveraged to drive enterprise
growth. Additionally, the company is focused on fostering its partnership with Centene to further augment its growth
trajectory. Cigna Healthcare growth strategy revolves around customer engagement, provider partnerships, and optimized
care delivery. They aim to empower customers with health information, incentivize providers to improve performance, and
facilitate aligned health goals. This involves developing integrated, data-driven programs and digital solutions to enhance
affordability and clinical outcomes while prioritizing customer experience. Key elements include an extensive participating
provider network, collaborative care arrangements like the Cigna Collaborative Accountable Care program, specialist
programs with value-based reimbursement, and hospital
quality programs. Independent Practice Associations and
site of care optimization initiatives further drive cost
savings and quality care, supported by virtual care
services like MDLIVE. The Cigna Group's growth strategy
emphasizes cross-enterprise leverage to maximize the
value of their capabilities and drive expansion. They
leverage their wide-ranging capabilities across Evernorth
Health Services and Cigna Healthcare to deepen client relationships and meet evolving needs efficiently. This approach
involves bringing teams together to create solutions that broaden their presence in the healthcare delivery system, reduce
costs, and enhance overall care quality. By cross-leveraging Evernorth Health Services' offerings within Cigna Healthcare and
vice versa, they aim to improve affordability, access, and innovation while ensuring transparency and delivering value to
clients and customers.
Cost Drivers
Pharmacy and other services costs
These costs encompass several components, including the expenses related to prescriptions sold, network pharmacy claim
costs, and copayments. Direct costs associated with dispensing prescriptions, such as supplies, shipping, handling, and clinical
programs like drug utilization management, are also factored in.
Costs for home delivery and specialty pharmacy services are Pharmacy and other services costs
recognized upon drug shipment, while retail network costs are
acknowledged upon processing and approval for payment. 133,801
117,553 124,834
Rebates and vendor considerations received in exchange for 103,484
97,668
pharmacy benefit management services are deducted from
pharmacy costs, with rebates recognized as prescriptions are
shipped or processed for payment. The company maintains
reimbursement guarantees with certain retail network 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A
pharmacies, recording payable or prepaid assets based on
actual performance against contractual rates. Incremental costs for obtaining service and pharmacy contracts for short-term
arrangements are expensed as incurred. The company also recognizes direct costs incurred offering fee-for-service clinical
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
solutions to clients, as part of its integrated pharmacy benefits performance, direct costs incurred from Wholesale
Marketplace Drug Formulary Management services and other services under pharmacy and other service costs.
SG&A
The Selling, general and administrative costs include all other operating costs
incurred while performing its service obligations. Expenses associated SG&A with
administrative programs and services are recognized as incurred in 14,822
Selling, general and administrative expenses. The related expenses
14,053 14,072
incurred from service programs under fee-for-service pharmacy benefit
services, Wholesale Marketplace Drug Formulary Management 13,174
13,012
services, services from health management solutions are recognized
under Selling, general and administrative expenses. 2019A 2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A
Industry Overview
The U.S. healthcare system is characterized by high costs and a lack of universal coverage, with the government assisting to
economically disadvantaged groups such as the elderly, disabled, and underprivileged individuals. In the absence of a
nationwide health insurance system, most Americans rely on their employers for health insurance coverage or purchase
individual plans directly from insurers. Employer-sponsored health insurance plays a crucial role in healthcare provision,
allowing for premium cost-sharing between employers and employees through negotiated group rates. The individual health
insurance market serves those without access to employer-sponsored plans or government programs like Medicare and
Medicaid, offering plans through the Health Insurance Marketplace established by the Affordable Care Act, as well as directly
from insurance companies. The government participates in the health insurance sector through Medicare for individuals aged
65 and above, and Medicaid and the Children's Health Insurance Program (CHIP) for low-income individuals and families. The
Health Insurance Marketplace, or Exchange, is an online platform where people can compare and purchase health insurance
plans from private insurers, categorized into Bronze, Silver, Gold, and Platinum levels based on coverage and cost-sharing.
Post-COVID, the U.S. health insurance market is experiencing increased demand and evolving coverage options.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Industry Growth
The United States health insurance market has experienced significant growth over the past decade, driven by rising
healthcare costs, increasing awareness of health insurance, and a growing population. The prevalence of chronic diseases such
as diabetes, cancer, cardiovascular, and neurological diseases has heightened the need for health insurance. In 2021, the U.S.
spent $12,914 per person on healthcare, significantly higher than other high-income countries, illustrating the rising cost of
healthcare. Investments in new treatments and technologies continue to drive these costs up, necessitating insurers to
manage expenses while providing adequate coverage. According to the United States Census Bureau, 216 million individuals
had private health insurance and 117 million had public health insurance in 2021, though these numbers overlap as individuals
may have multiple types of coverage. This increasing demand for health insurance coverage has been crucial in boosting the
uptake among consumers. The United States Health And Medical Insurance Market size is estimated at USD 1.5 trillion in 2024
and is expected to reach USD 2.01 trillion by 2029, growing at a CAGR of greater than 6% during 2024-2029.
Private Health Insurance is Expected to Fuel the Market Growth in the United States
The private health insurance market in the United States has seen significant growth due to an increasing number of private
insurance programs and the rising prevalence of chronic diseases. According to the NAIC, more than 68% of healthcare
coverage in the U.S. is provided by private insurance programs,
such as PPOs, HMOs, and POS plans. In 2019, the top 25
insurers accounted for around USD 130 billion in revenue, with
over 60% of Americans having employer-provided insurance,
35% covered by Medicaid or Medicare, 6% acquiring non-group
insurance, and around 9% remaining uninsured. Private health
insurance plans include group insurance offered by employers
and individual insurance purchased directly or through
marketplaces. These plans vary in coverage and cost-sharing
arrangements, involving premiums, deductibles, co-payments, and co-insurance. The increasing prevalence of chronic
diseases, such as diabetes and heart disease, drives higher enrollment in private health insurance to manage the high costs of
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States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
treatment. Despite affordability challenges, the demand for comprehensive health coverage continues to fuel the private
health insurance market.
Industry Disruptors:
Rising Costs of Healthcare
The rising costs of healthcare and the associated increase in insurance premiums are major disruptors in the health insurance
market. Insurers are under pressure to balance the need to offer affordable coverage with the necessity of covering escalating
healthcare costs. This dynamic creates a challenging
environment for both insurers and consumers, with
insurers struggling to maintain profitability and consumers
facing difficulties in affording comprehensive coverage.
One of the most significant contributors to rising
healthcare costs in the United States is the high price of
prescription drugs, which are substantially higher
compared to other countries due to factors such as lack of
price regulation, extensive patent protections, and high
research and development costs. Additionally, the cost of
advanced medical procedures, such as surgeries, MRIs, and
other diagnostic tests, is notably high, further driving up healthcare expenses. These elevated costs are passed on to patients
through increased insurance premiums and out-of-pocket expenses. Compounding the issue is the shortage of primary care
providers, which leads to increased reliance on more expensive specialists and emergency services. This shortage exacerbates
overall healthcare costs, subsequently raising insurance premiums and making it challenging for many Americans to afford
necessary medical care.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Market Share
The US health insurance market is moderately consolidated, with established players facing increasing competition from new
entrants. Factors such as the rapid adoption of advanced technology and the introduction of new policies influence the
competitive landscape. Key players in the market include UnitedHealth Group, Elevance Health, Cigna Group, HCSC Group,
and Centene Corporation.
During the COVID-19 pandemic, merger and acquisition activity in the health insurance, hospital, and health system sectors
declined but is rebounding significantly. Some planned deals have been scrapped due to various reasons, while others
proceed as planned or have recently closed. Notably, Kaiser Permanente's acquisition of Geisinger Health Plan of Pennsylvania
through Risant Health indicates a major move in California's healthcare market, with Kaiser Permanente investing $5 billion in
Risant over the next five years. However, certain
deals faced opposition, such as Tenet Healthcare's
planned sale of San Ramon Regional Medical Center,
which was scrapped due to concerns raised by the
Federal Trade Commission (FTC) about increased
costs and reduced competition.
Amazon's foray into healthcare services faced
setbacks in previous years but seems back on track.
Despite shutting down Amazon Care in late 2022,
Amazon made progress in 2023 by acquiring One
Medical and offering discounts for Amazon Prime
members using One Medical for primary care. Additionally, Amazon's RxPass service provides Prime members with
prescription fills for a monthly fee, hinting at further expansions in the healthcare sector.
According to AMA, Cigna has a 10% market share in health insurance, making it the fourth largest among the 10 largest health
insurers by market share. Cigna also has about 11% of the U.S. prescription drug market. In the health insurance industry,
Cigna's main competitors are UnitedHealth Group, Humana, Aetna, and Anthem.
Competitive Analysis
SWOT Analysis
A comprehensive SWOT (Strengths, Weaknesses, Opportunities, Threats) analysis of Cigna provides valuable insights into its
internal capabilities and external environment, aiding in strategic planning and decision-making. This analysis delves into the
key factors impacting Cigna's position in the market, including its strengths in innovation and customer engagement,
weaknesses in regulatory challenges, opportunities in expanding markets and digital health, and threats posed by competitive
pressures and healthcare industry dynamics. Understanding these factors is essential for Cigna to capitalize on its strengths,
address weaknesses, seize opportunities, and mitigate threats in the ever-evolving landscape of healthcare.
Strengths
Strong Brand Reputation: Cigna has fostered a loyal customer base through its value-based and affordable healthcare
services, building a strong brand reputation.
Strong Financial Performance: The company has consistently demonstrated strong financial performance, regularly
beating analysts' expectations and maintaining a solid financial position.
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States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Strategic Alliances and Investments: Cigna Group has entered into advantageous alliances and made strategic
investments with other players in the healthcare industry, expanding and consolidating its market share.
Weaknesses
Dependency on the US Market: Cigna's operations are primarily based in the USA, and its international segments
have shown weaker performance. Strategic divestitures from the international market have further consolidated its
dependency on the US market.
Highly Regulated Industry: Operating in the healthcare sector, Cigna faces extensive regulatory scrutiny, which can
lead to significant compliance costs and operational restrictions.
Ethical Dilemmas: Previous decisions regarding insurance policies and pharmacy networks have led to customer
criticism, potentially harming the company's reputation and customer trust.
Opportunities
Expansion into New Markets: Leveraging its affordability, Cigna can expand into new international markets,
diversifying its revenue sources and reducing its dependency on the US market.
Increased Demand for Healthcare Services: The rising demand for healthcare services presents a significant
opportunity for Cigna. Its value-based approach can attract more customers as healthcare costs continue to rise.
Acquisitions and Partnerships: Strategic acquisitions and partnerships can help Cigna expand its service portfolio,
enter new markets, and strengthen its competitive position.
Threats
Regulatory Compliance: Stricter regulations and potential changes in healthcare laws pose a significant threat,
potentially increasing operational costs and limiting business practices.
Intense Competition: The healthcare industry is highly competitive, with numerous players vying for market share.
Increased competition can pressure pricing and margins.
Economic Conditions and Inflation: Economic downturns and high inflation rates can reduce consumer spending on
healthcare, impacting Cigna’s revenue and profitability.
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States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Threat of New Entrants | Low – Moderate
Cigna operates in an industry where achieving economies of scale is challenging, resulting in high production costs for new
entrants. However, strong product differentiation and high capital requirements act as significant barriers to entry. Despite
easy access to distribution networks, stringent government policies and licensing requirements deter potential new players.
However, emerging healthcare segments from companies with high market share in their own industries, such as Amazon,
could present some level of substitution risk. To tackle this threat, Cigna focuses on expanding its services portfolio and
consolidating its market presence.
Buyer Bargaining Power | High
Customers, both individual policyholders and large corporate clients, have numerous options to choose from, increasing their
leverage when negotiating terms and premiums. Additionally, the rise of information transparency and online comparison
tools empowers customers to make more informed choices, further enhancing their bargaining power. To address this, Cigna
focuses on product innovation and quality differentiation to attract and retain customers, and building a large customer base
through effective marketing strategies.
Competitive Rivalry Amongst Sellers | High
The competitive rivalry in the health insurance industry is high. Major players like UnitedHealth Group, Elevance Health, HCSC
Group, and Centene Corporation fiercely compete for market share. This intense competition drives companies to
continuously innovate, improve service offerings, and engage in aggressive pricing strategies. Additionally, the rapid adoption
of advanced technology and the introduction of new healthcare policies further intensify the competitive landscape.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Financial Analysis
The financial metrics such as return on equity (ROE), return on assets (ROA), and return on capital (ROC) are essential
indicators of performance. ROE is particularly important when evaluating the attractiveness of Cigna's investments, as it
reflects how efficiently the company generates profit relative to shareholders' equity. ROA measures profitability in relation to
total assets, providing insight into how effectively the company utilizes its assets. ROC highlights the efficiency of capital
allocation, considering both debt and equity, which is crucial for insurers managing policyholder funds. These metrics enable
Cigna to evaluate its financial performance, set strategic objectives, and ensure sustainable growth while maintaining
regulatory compliance and investor confidence.
DuPont Analysis
Return on Assets (ROA)
The sustained performance of the Cigna Group's Return on Assets Return on Assets
(ROA) measure, consistently surpassing the 4% mark, indicates a
7.0 % 6.2 %
commendable level of operational efficiency and effectiveness in 6.0 % 5.2 %
5.0 % 4.6 %
utilizing its asset base This stability in ROA not only instills 4.1 %
4.0 %
confidence in investors but also underscores Cigna's strategic focus 3.0 % on
maximizing returns from its asset investments. Additionally, 2.0 %
1.0 %
maintaining a stable ROA above 4% positions Cigna as a reliable 0.0 %
2020A 2021A 2022A 2023A
player in the healthcare industry, capable of delivering consistent
and predictable financial outcomes.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
stability while delivering higher returns for both policyholders and shareholders, highlighting the company's resilience and
strategic agility in a dynamic industry.
As observed, all the metrics exhibit similar dips and rises. The rise in 2020 can be attributed to the surge in the
healthcare industry during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, in 2021, Cigna, along with other companies and the broader
economy, faced challenges due to ongoing disruptions caused by the pandemic, such as supply chain issues and workforce
shortages. The relief measures from the government and companies' adaptation to newly established supply chains and
workforce adjustments led to a recovery in 2022. However, this recovery was short-lived as persistent inflation and the
Federal Reserve's higher interest rates negatively impacted returns. Furthermore, geopolitical disruptions exacerbated these
economic challenges, contributing to the observed dip in 2023.
Valuation
Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) – 50% Weighted
Using the EV/EBITDA valuation method, we arrived at an intrinsic value of $543.03, representing a margin of safety of 60.7%.
EV/EBITDA is a robust and appropriate measure for the Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) model in valuing Cigna Group. It
effectively captures operational performance, facilitates comparability, includes debt, and reflects the company’s growth
potential while remaining straightforward and efficient. This makes it a critical component in arriving at a comprehensive and
accurate intrinsic value for Cigna.
Revenue
The revenue forecasts for the upcoming years are primarily based on market growth projections, with a significant
contribution from Cigna's partnership with Centene. However, a dip in revenue for the healthcare segment is expected in
2024, primarily due to the sales of its Medicare and Medicaid segments. Beyond 2024, the growth projections for the
healthcare segment align with overall industry growth. These forecasts were derived using a year-over-year (YOY) growth rate.
The risks to these forecasts are moderate, as they are largely based on the expected growth of the healthcare market.
Potential risks include Cigna’s failure to capture market growth or unexpected geopolitical, economic, or social circumstances
that could impact the industry’s growth trajectory.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Capital Expenditure
For Cigna Group, investments in equipment and technology are essential to maintaining its services and operations in
insurance and medical facilities. The company has not provided any outlook or guidance on future capital expenditures,
making it challenging to forecast capital expenditures for the company. Therefore, the projections for Cigna Group's capital
expenditures are based on historical averages.
Beta
The selected beta for the valuation is 0.54 with an R-squared value of 11.9%. This beta was chosen to align with Cigna’s
general risk profile and is consistent with annual beta predictions from other analysts. Operating in the healthcare sector,
Cigna’s volatility is lower than the overall stock market, as healthcare is an essential industry. The chosen beta effectively
captures the company's volatility in relation to its industry and market share and aligns with the beta of other players in the
healthcare industry.
P/E – 50%
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is a critical metric in evaluating healthcare insurance companies like Cigna Group. It measures
the company’s current share price relative to its per-share earnings. This ratio is essential in the historical model because it
helps investors understand how much they are paying for each dollar of earnings. For healthcare insurance companies, which
often have stable and predictable earnings, the P/E ratio can indicate whether the stock is overvalued or undervalued
compared to its historical performance. By weighting the P/E ratio at 50%, we can gauge the company's profitability and
market sentiment over time, providing insights into its long-term sustainability and investor confidence.
EV/EBITDA – 50%
The EV/EBITDA ratio is another significant metric, especially for assessing companies in the healthcare sector. It is particularly
useful for healthcare insurance companies as it accounts for the debt they often carry, providing a more comprehensive
valuation than the P/E ratio alone. By weighting the EV/EBITDA ratio at 50%, we can better understand Cigna Group's
operational efficiency and profitability, ensuring a balanced evaluation that considers both earnings and enterprise value.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Relative Model – 20% Weighted
A Relative model emphasizes horizontal research to understand and evaluate the company in comparison with its peers in the
same industry. The relative model evaluation of the Cigna Group assesses its performance within the industry, providing
insights into its competitive positioning and market dynamics. The relative model yielded an intrinsic value of $318.16 with a
margin of safety of (5.8%)
P/E – 30%
The Price-to-Earnings (P/E) ratio is an essential metric in the relative model, especially for healthcare insurance companies like
Cigna Group. The P/E ratio compares the company’s current share price to its earnings per share, providing a snapshot of how
the market values its earnings relative to its peers. In the healthcare insurance sector, where companies often have stable and
predictable earnings, the P/E ratio is a key indicator of market sentiment and investor expectations. By weighting the P/E ratio
at 30%, we can assess how Cigna's valuation compares to other companies in the industry, helping to determine if it is
overvalued or undervalued relative to its competitors.
EV/EBITDA – 70%
The Enterprise Value to Earnings Before Interest, Taxes, Depreciation, and Amortization (EV/EBITDA) ratio is another critical
metric in the relative model. This ratio measures the company's total value, including debt and excluding cash, relative to its
EBITDA. For healthcare insurance companies, EV/EBITDA is particularly useful as it provides a clearer picture of operational
performance and financial health by considering both earnings and enterprise value. By weighting the EV/EBITDA ratio at 70%,
we gain insights into Cigna's operational efficiency compared to its industry peers. This metric helps to highlight whether Cigna
is managing its resources effectively and maintaining a competitive edge in terms of profitability and operational
performance.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Dividend Discount Model – 10% Weighted
The Dividend Discount Model (DDM) is a valuable tool for evaluating Cigna Group, given its consistent dividend payments and
recent increases in dividend amounts due to growing revenue streams. Cigna's commitment to continuing dividend payouts,
unless otherwise decided by the board, highlights its financial stability and shareholder focus, making DDM an appropriate
method for assessing its intrinsic value. The model yielded an intrinsic value of $27.81 with a margin of safety of (91.8%).
Increasing costs of the Healthcare industry and the need for Health Insurance
With rising healthcare costs, there is a growing necessity for individuals to obtain health insurance to protect themselves from
financial ruin. In this context, Cigna Group is well-positioned to experience an increase in customers across both its segments:
Evernorth and Cigna Healthcare. Cigna's operational excellence in providing affordable healthcare solutions is a critical factor
that will drive customer growth. The company's ability to manage costs effectively while maintaining high service quality
makes it attractive to both individual consumers and corporate clients. As healthcare costs continue to rise, more individuals
and organizations will seek out insurers that offer comprehensive coverage at competitive rates. Cigna's proven track record
in this area positions it well to capture a larger market share. In addition to increasing customer numbers, Cigna is likely to see
revenue growth through higher premiums. As the demand for comprehensive healthcare coverage grows, insurers often
adjust premiums to reflect the enhanced value and expanded services they provide. While premium increases can sometimes
be a deterrent, Cigna's focus on affordability and value-added services can justify these adjustments, leading to sustained
revenue growth.
Portfolio Recommendation
Based on thorough analysis and assessment of The Cigna Group's financial stability and future prospects, I recommend
maintaining a HOLD position within the Large-Cap Portfolio. The current allocation of 2.47% aligns appropriately with Cigna's
position in the healthcare sector, particularly its strong presence in Pharmacy Benefits Management (PBMs) and Specialty and
Care Services. Cigna's potential for dividends further enhances the attractiveness of holding its stock within the portfolio.
Considering the expected growth trajectory of the healthcare sector, maintaining exposure to Cigna provides a solid
foundation for long-term stable portfolio performance.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Corporate Governance
The executive Board of The Cigna Group are as follows:
David M.Cordani | Chairman and Chief Executive Officer | The Cigna Group | $20,965,504
David Cordani assumed the role of Chairman of the Board in January 2022. He has been at the helm of The Cigna Group as
Chief Executive Officer since 2009, and prior to that, he served as President starting from 2008. With a tenure at The Cigna
Group dating back to 1991, Mr. Cordani has held various significant positions, including Chief Operating Officer, President of
Cigna HealthCare, and Senior Vice President of Customer Segments and Marketing. Under his leadership, The Cigna Group has
experienced remarkable growth, evolving into a Fortune 15 global health enterprise. Presently, it boasts around 189 million
customer and patient relationships and employs approximately 72,500 colleagues worldwide.
William J. DeLaney | Former Chief Executive Officer | Sysco Corporation | $310,283
William DeLaney held the position of Chief Executive Officer at Sysco Corporation, a company specializing in food marketing
and distribution, from March 2009 until his retirement in December 2017. Prior to his role as CEO, DeLaney served as
President of Sysco from March 2010 to January 2016, and as Executive Vice President and Chief Financial Officer from July
2007 to October 2009. Over his 29-year tenure with Sysco, he held various corporate and operational roles, steadily increasing
in responsibility.
Eric J. Foss | Former Chair, President, and Chief Executive Officer | Aramark | $ 335,283
Eric Foss held executive roles at leading companies including Aramark and PepsiCo. He served as President and CEO of
Aramark from May 2012 until his retirement in August 2019. Before Aramark, he was CEO of Pepsi Beverages Company from
2010 to 2011 and CEO and Chairman of The Pepsi Bottling Group, Inc., from 2008 to 2010.
Retired Maj. Gen. Elder Granger, M.D. | President and Chief Executive Officer | THE 5Ps, LLC | $ 335,283
Retired Army Major General Elder Granger, M.D., has been the President and CEO of THE 5Ps, LLC, a healthcare, education,
and leadership consulting firm, since August 2009. He served over 35 years in the U.S. Army, retiring in June 2009, and held
the position of Deputy Director and Program Executive Officer of TRICARE Management Activity from December 2005 to June
2009.
Neesha Hathi | Head of Wealth and Advice Solutions | The Charles Schwab Corporation | $ 310,283
Neesha Hathi has been Head of Wealth and Advice Solutions at The Charles Schwab Corporation since 2022. Over her 18-year
career at Charles Schwab, she has held increasingly senior roles. She was Chief Digital Officer from 2017 to 2022, overseeing
digital transformation and business innovation. Before that, she was Executive Vice President of Investor Services Platforms
from 2016 to 2017, and Senior Vice President of Advisor Services and COO of Schwab Performance Technologies from 2012 to
2016.
George Kurian | Chief Executive Officer | NetApp, Inc | $ 310,283
George Kurian has been CEO of NetApp, Inc., a cloud-led, data-centric software company, since 2015. He served as President
from 2016 to 2020, Executive Vice President of Product Development from 2013 to 2015, and Senior Vice President of the
Software Group from 2011 to 2013. Prior to NetApp, he held various roles at Cisco Systems, including Vice President and
General Manager in different business units from 2002 to 2011.
Kathleen M. Mazzarella | Chair, President, and Chief Executive Officer | Graybar Electric Company, Inc | $ 335,283
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
Kathleen Mazzarella has been Chair of Graybar Electric Company, Inc., a distributor of electrical, communications, and data
networking products, since January 2013. She has also served as President and CEO since June 2012 and as a Director since
January 2004. She is the first woman to lead Graybar since its founding in 1925.
Mark B. McClellan, M.D., Ph.D. | Director | Duke-Robert J. Margolis, M.D., Center for Health Policy | $ 310,283
Dr. Mark McClellan became the first Director of the Duke-Robert J. Margolis, M.D., Center for Health Policy and the Margolis
Professor at Duke University in January 2016. He holds leadership roles with the National Academy of Medicine, the University
of Texas Dell Medical School, and the Institute for Clinical and Economic Review. He was also the founding Chair of the
Reagan-Udall Foundation for the FDA. Dr. McClellan has received the Kenneth Arrow Award for Outstanding Research in
Health Economics twice.
Philip O. Ozuah, M.D., Ph.D. | President and Chief Executive Officer | Montefiore Medicine | $ 248,498
Since 2019, Dr. Philip Ozuah has been the President and CEO of Montefiore Medicine, overseeing the Albert Einstein College
of Medicine and Montefiore Health System’s 13 hospitals and 300 ambulatory sites. He has been with Montefiore Medicine
for 32 years, previously serving as President of Montefiore Health System (2018-2019) and EVP/COO (2012-2018). A NIH-
funded researcher and award-winning educator, Dr. Ozuah was also Professor and University Chairman of Pediatrics at Albert
Einstein College of Medicine and Physician-in-Chief at the Children’s Hospital at Montefiore (CHAM).
Kimberly A. Ross | Former Chief Financial Officer | Baker Hughes Company | $ 337,783
Kimberly Ross was the Chief Financial Officer of WeWork (the We Company), a flexible space solutions provider, from March
to September 2020. Prior to that, she served as Senior Vice President and Chief Financial Officer of Baker Hughes Company, an
energy technology firm, from September 2014 to July 2017.
Eric C. Wiseman | Lead Independent Director | The Cigna Group | $ 360,283
Eric Wiseman has been the Lead Independent Director of The Cigna Group since January 2022. He previously served as
Executive Chair of VF Corporation, an apparel and footwear company, from August 2008 to October 2017. Wiseman was VF
Corporation’s CEO from January 2008 to December 2016, President from 2006 to June 2015, and COO from 2006 to 2008.
Prior to these roles, he held various senior management positions at VF Corporation.
Donna F. Zarcone | Former President and Chief Executive Officer | The Economic Club of Chicago | $ 337,783
Donna Zarcone was the President and CEO of The Economic Club of Chicago from February 2012 to July 2020, and Interim
President from October 2011 to February 2012. She led D.F. Zarcone & Associates LLC, a strategic advisory firm, from 2007 to
February 2012. Previously, she was President and COO of Harley-Davidson Financial Services, Inc., and founded Eaglemark
Savings Bank, serving as its Chair and President. Earlier in her career, she was CFO for two start-ups, which were later sold to
strategic investors.
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
DEI performance to the financing of their Enterprise Incentive Plan, ensuring accountability and progress tracking through the
DEI index. With a diverse workforce, including 39% ethnic minority representation among American employees and 71%
women, Cigna is dedicated to fostering an inclusive workplace environment and advancing diversity at all levels.
Governance
Cigna places great emphasis on ethical business practices and effective governance. They have established a comprehensive
Code of Ethics and Principles of Conduct as a guiding framework for their global workforce. Their Board of Directors reflects a
commitment to diversity and sound governance practices, surpassing S&P benchmarks in terms of age, tenure, gender, and
ethnicity representation. Through mandatory ethics and compliance training and a robust risk management culture, Cigna
ensures that ethical standards are upheld throughout the organization. Their "Three Lines Model" approach to risk
management assigns responsibilities for daily risk management, supervision, and independent audits to different
organizational levels, with the Board of Directors ultimately overseeing risk management activities through specialized
committees.
Investment Summary
Based on my analysis, Cigna emerges as a promising investment option within the healthcare sector. The company
demonstrates a strong foundation, coupled with a proactive approach towards enhancing its product offerings and expanding
its digital healthcare initiatives. My research has yet yielded an intrinsic value of with a margin of safety of. I consider Cigna's
current position in Large-Cap portfolio, at 2.47%, to be appropriate for a hold strategy. Cigna's strategic positioning and
growth potential suggest that it is well-positioned to capitalize on evolving trends in the healthcare industry. Therefore, I
recommend maintaining maintaining current allocation in Cigna and closely monitoring its performance for potential future
adjustments.
Disclosure: I have no positions in any stocks mentioned and no plans to initiate any positions within the next 72 hours.
I wrote this report myself, and it expresses my own opinions. I am not receiving compensation for it. I have no business relationship with any company whose stock is
mentioned in this equity report. This report is written explicitly for the Oregon State Investment Group; however, I hold the right to distribute this document to
potential employers or for other educational purposes as a sample of my work.
Signed:
[Pravahlika Chava]
[6/7/24]
References
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/the-cigna-group-to-sell-medicare-businesses-and-careallies-to-health-care-
service-corporation-hcsc-302049322
https://www.darwinresearch.com/our-take-centene-to-switch-pbms-in-2024-awarding-new-contract-to-express-scripts/
https://www.forbes.com/sites/brucejapsen/2022/11/08/cignas-25-billion-stake-in-villagemds-summit-venture-to-grow-
evernorth-provider-portfolio/?sh=e3685207d699
https://s202.q4cdn.com/757723766/files/doc_financials/2023/ar/2024-Proxy-Statement.pdf
https://s202.q4cdn.com/757723766/files/doc_events/2024/03/06/the-cigna-group-2024-investor-day-presentation.pdf
https://www.mordorintelligence.com/industry-reports/united-states-health-and-medical-insurance-market
https://www.researchandmarkets.com/report/united-states-health-insurance-market?
utm_source=GNE&utm_medium=PressRelease&utm_code=ksz9sl&utm_campaign=1918454+-
+United+States+Health+Insurance+Market+Analysis+Report+2023-
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
2028%3a+Wellness+Programs+and+Ancillary+Services+Drive+Growth
%2c+Demand+for+Affordable+Solutions+on+the+Rise+&utm_exec=chdo54prd
https://dcf.fm/products/ci-swot-analysis
https://www.mbaskool.com/brandguide/pharmaceuticals-and-healthcare/5685-cigna.html
https://www.evernorth.com/articles/express-scripts-awarded-7-year-tricare-pharmacy-program-contract
https://www.essay48.com/term-paper/12686-Cigna-Porter-Five-Forces
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Pharmacy_benefit_management
https://www.prnewswire.com/news-releases/carepathrx-health-system-solutions-and-evernorth-health-services-forge-
strategic-partnership-to-enhance-specialty-care-for-patients-301839464.html
Appendix
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
25 | P a g e
Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
26 | P a g e
Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
27 | P a g e
Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
28 | P a g e
Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .
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Disclaimer: The Oregon State Investment Group is not a registered financial institution or advisor and has no affiliation with any regulative agency in the United
States. This document was created exclusively for educational purposes and should not be viewed as advice on investment .