Early warning systems and managing the effects of El Niño Summary of Webinar - 9 June 2020
El Niño plays a dominant role in driving drought globally. Its cold phase, La systems ranges from “weak”, to “strong” and “very strong” events. Each level Niña, tends to be associated with enhanced rainfall, particularly in South East of severity has different impacts on vulnerable communities. This places great Asia. In this review of El Niño Long Range Warning Systems the following importance on Early Warning Systems. issues and recommendations are discussed: In a traditional, idealised view of EWS, the warning system acts as a “searchlight” • El Niño and La Niña have perhaps the strongest influence on year-to-year on society - it finds a problem, alerts the government and the problem gets climate variability. The El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO for short) is a addressed. The reality of this is more precarious and the stability of society can naturally occurring global climate cycle. often balance on the correctness and accuracy of early warning systems, leaving little room beyond survival in the face of a major event or disaster. Lessons from • ENSO influences rainfall, temperature, and wind patterns around the world, historical events are motivation for governments to improve their EWS; and including New Zealand. These could influence several hydro-meteorological know what lies ahead to help maintain civil and political stability. hazards such as drought, floods and storm. While global warming is supercharging El Niño impacts globally, simultaneously • Early warning is the key element for disaster and climate risk reduction and is there is also speculation on how global warming will affect the frequency of El highlighted strongly in the Global Risk Assessment Frameworks (GRAF). For El Niño and whether El Niño will continue to affect the same places. El Niño may Niño, a long range warning system (30 days to 3-6 months) is available. provide a unique opportunity to serve as a bridge between the present and a • With the advances in science and multi-model ensembles, warning skills have climate changed future. If we can’t cope with El Niño related droughts today, increased and have the potential to reduce disaster risk and sectoral decision we won’t be able to cope with droughts that are more severe or in different making as across fields such as water resource, agriculture, dairy/livestock, locations decades from now. It provides a laboratory every 2-7 years so we can energy, epidemics, ecology, etc. ask ourselves – are we coping correctly? Are we adjusting correctly to a • The reality is very complex and system based thinking is crucial. An early changing climate? warning system factoring in compounding and cascading hazards and Under the existing reality of El Niño early warning forecasts, once it has been a seamless integration of hours to decadal warnings could enhance the forecast other sectors take this information to create a forecast for the benefit decision making process. of their particular sector – whether that be agriculture, energy, water, or • With a change in our culture and mindset using advances in science and humanitarian services etc. Our forecasts and response are informed not only technology, we can produce more useful, usable information to help by science, but also by observations on the impact of El Niño related events industries, sectors and communities to better understand foreseeable risks over the past century. and adaptation options. Effective communication of the risk of El Niño is an ongoing issue that needs to be addressed. Following an El Niño warning from an official forecasting centre, State of the art - El Niño early warning systems, global warming response action often relies on following warnings, with some people inevitably and risk communication Despite the progress made in modelling and statistical information in recent decades, there is still uncertainty surrounding the timing, severity and related impacts of weather events due to El Niño. The severity of El Niño weather A system of systems: Early warning systems and managing the effects of El Niño Summary of Webinar - 9 June 2020
waiting until the last minute to take action. We need to focus on answering the Applying El Niño early warning forecasts in known vulnerability hotspots is good question of ‘when is early warning too late to take action?’. The implementation for development, despite forecast limitations. We can save lives and reduce of a “late warning system” may help to provide certainty to governments and damages with the knowledge we already have, despite its limitations. The sections of society that inevitably take this risk. history of past El Niño events clearly highlights locations that are considered as El Niño hotspots due to their sensitivity to El Niño-induced rainfall variations Lessons from past events are a crucial aspect of developing effective El Niño early warning systems. All too often post-disaster lessons learned are identified and high societal vulnerability resulting from poverty, prevalence of food but not applied due to the lack of money, govt changes and other issues. We insecurity, and other factors. can be El Niño ready If we can combine our scientific forecasts, with local and Where forecast limitations are considerable, it is even more critical for indigenous knowledge and learnings from previous events. procedures to be in place for receiving updated forecast information so that actions on the ground and resources can be appropriately adjusted, as the The benefits of El Niño forecasting forecast becomes more certain. El Niño plays a dominant role in driving drought and other climate hazards Establishing predictable mechanisms for communicating information to a whole globally. Understanding how to provide useful early warning information relies range of decision-makers from policymakers to farmers is essential. on the intended applications by users. For some governments and United Nations The following examples have proven useful: agencies, El Niño early warning indices are sufficient to trigger contingency planning and resource mobilisation for early response. Some social protection - Several Met services in South-East Asia are convening over regular monsoon schemes use these indices as a basis for setting triggers for early intervention, forums ahead of each season to explain the seasonal climate forecast for such as cash for work and alternative livelihood support. users and to obtain feedback.
But some users need El Niño indices to be translated in terms of the expected - In many countries, government agencies and non-governmental organisations impacts of El Niño on seasonal rainfall and temperature. These are normally collaborate in running climate field schools to empower farmers to interpret provided through seasonal climate outlook 3 to 6 months in advance. A useful and use climate information. Innovation has been also seen in delivering seasonal forecast allows proactive action in agriculture and water management, integrated agromet services through mobile-based applications. such as farm management decisions to switch crops, adjust the timing of Regularity is essential – users need to know when to expect the release of planting and planning to provide supplemental irrigation sources. The critical information for climate sensitive decisions. Ultimately, disaster and usefulness of this information has also been noted on anticipating secondary climate plans must be organised to manage disaster risks caused by El Niño El Niño impacts, such as forest fires. and other factors. Some users require indices to be further translated into impacts on specific sectors and communities. There is wide scope for improving this, as this is How Long Range Warning Systems (LRWS) can help communities and still not part of routine early warning services issued by national meteorological industries prepare for severe weather events and El Niño impacts. agencies and relevant sector agencies. An imbalance exists between user expectations and what forecasters or Met The success of applying ENSO indices and seasonal forecasts relies largely on services can actually provide to the community. Science can provide skilled and pre-agreed plans and procedures – How will the information be used? What informed services up to a certain limit, but users will always demand more. actions will be taken once certain thresholds are crossed? Where will the funds When expectations are not met, users are less willing to use the information come from to finance these actions? accurately or to take on the information in the decision-making process. It is A system of systems: Early warning systems and managing the effects of El Niño Summary of Webinar - 9 June 2020
necessary to find a balance between user expectations
Seasonal climate Applications of long range seasonal forecasts and the services that forecasters can provide. forecast 1-3 months One method of achieving this is in the above mentioned seasonal monsoon forums, which are held to better understand how to provide guidance for users and Drought forecasting understand user expectations. model When developing and implementing an early warning system, we need to consider that a more widespread Storm & other hazard application of early warning systems equates to a forecasting model more widely experienced uncertainty. Reservoir operation Even when there is warning information model available, especially for sector and Consequences strategy decision-making, it Water demand forecast Decision forecasting doesn’t immediately translate model Historical Policy into successful application, Support trend makers because you have a time horizon Dairy/livestock market Platform Trigger actions to turn strategic decisions into forecasting model Investigating to reduce tactical decisions. Ecological restoration risk based consequences Presenters: forecasting model measures Feedback (reliability, Bapon Fakhruddin exposure & Wind farm & energy Natural Hazards Specialist, Tonkin + Taylor trade forecasting model vulnerability Mickey Glantz Director, Consortium for Capacity Building Dengue fever forecasting model Kareff Rafisura Disaster Risk Reduction, United Nations Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the Pacific A system of systems: Early warning systems and managing the effects of El Niño Summary of Webinar - 9 June 2020
Climate information and application system
Historical damage and loss data
Exposure
Vulnerability
Interpreting Partner Develop
Translating engagement - Historical Providing regional climate trigger action local climate communicate risk observation and seasonal climate outlook into local response plan outlook into to support Predictions outlook climate outlook to reduce climate risk decision-making (Hazard) consequence
Past Present Future
A system of systems: Early warning systems and managing the effects of El Niño Summary of Webinar - 9 June 2020
Long range hazard forecasting and dealing with uncertainty
Nowcasting- Drought Index Seasonal Outlook (1-3 months) Drought Forecasting
