Decision science

1. Based on the following data develop the forecasting model (adopt Exponential
SmoothingTechnique) by considering the following alpha levels. α = 0.2, 0.4, 0.6, 0.8.
Write your conclusion after calculations of Errors (MAD and MSE only).
Forecast FTAs (foreign tourist arrival) for the year 2018.
Data: The following data shows the Foreign Tourist Arrival in the India from 1991 to 2017

Yea
r FTAs in India (in Million)

1991 1.68

2001 2.54

2002 2.38

2003 2.73

2004 3.46

2005 3.92

2006 4.45

2007 5.08

2008 5.28

2009 5.17

2010 5.78

2011 6.31

2012 6.58

2013 6.97

2014 7.68

2015 8.03

2016 8.8

2017 10.04
Data Source: Data.gov.in
Note: You are advised to calculate manually, do not use any software.

Answer: a) α = 0.2

Yea Sale Exponential |

Error |Error| Error2
r s Smoothing(α=0.2) %Error|

1991 1.68 1.68

2001 2.54 0.2⋅1.68+0.8⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%

2002 2.38 0.2⋅2.54+0.8⋅1.68=1.852 2.38-1.852=0.528 0.528 0.2788 22.18%

2003 2.73 0.2⋅2.38+0.8⋅1.852=1.9576 2.73-1.9576=0.7724 0.7724 0.5966 28.29%

2004 3.46 0.2⋅2.73+0.8⋅1.9576=2.1121 3.46-2.1121=1.3479 1.3479 1.8169 38.96%

2005 3.92 0.2⋅3.46+0.8⋅2.1121=2.3817 3.92-2.3817=1.5383 1.5383 2.3665 39.24%

2006 4.45 0.2⋅3.92+0.8⋅2.3817=2.6893 4.45-2.6893=1.7607 1.7607 3.1 39.57%

2007 5.08 0.2⋅4.45+0.8⋅2.6893=3.0415 5.08-3.0415=2.0385 2.0385 4.1556 40.13%

2008 5.28 0.2⋅5.08+0.8⋅3.0415=3.4492 5.28-3.4492=1.8308 1.8308 3.3519 34.67%

2009 5.17 0.2⋅5.28+0.8⋅3.4492=3.8153 5.17-3.8153=1.3547 1.3547 1.8351 26.20%

2010 5.78 0.2⋅5.17+0.8⋅3.8153=4.0863 5.78-4.0863=1.6937 1.6937 2.8687 29.30%

2011 6.31 0.2⋅5.78+0.8⋅4.0863=4.425 6.31-4.425=1.885 1.885 3.5532 29.87%

2012 6.58 0.2⋅6.31+0.8⋅4.425=4.802 6.58-4.802=1.778 1.778 3.1612 27.02%

2013 6.97 0.2⋅6.58+0.8⋅4.802=5.1576 6.97-5.1576=1.8124 1.8124 3.2848 26%

2014 7.68 0.2⋅6.97+0.8⋅5.1576=5.5201 7.68-5.5201=2.1599 2.1599 4.6652 28.12%

2015 8.03 0.2⋅7.68+0.8⋅5.5201=5.9521 8.03-5.9521=2.0779 2.0779 4.3178 25.88%

2016 8.8 0.2⋅8.03+0.8⋅5.9521=6.3677 8.8-6.3677=2.4323 2.4323 5.9163 27.64%

10.0 10.04- 10.149

2017 0.2⋅8.8+0.8⋅6.3677=6.8541 3.1859 31.73%
4 6.8541=3.1859 8

2018 0.2⋅10.04+0.8⋅6.8541=7.4913
 29.056
Total 56.158 528.68%
5

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

MAE=1∑|ei|=29.0565=1.7092
n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE)

MSE=1∑|e2i|=56.158=3.3034
n 17

2. α = 0.4

Yea Exponential Smoothing |

Sales Error |Error| Error2
r (α=0.4) %Error|

1991 1.68 1.68

2001 2.54 0.4⋅1.68+0.6⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%

2002 2.38 0.4⋅2.54+0.6⋅1.68=2.024 2.38-2.024=0.356 0.356 0.1267 14.96%

2.73-
2003 2.73 0.4⋅2.38+0.6⋅2.024=2.1664 0.5636 0.3176 20.64%
2.1664=0.5636

3.46-
2004 3.46 0.4⋅2.73+0.6⋅2.1664=2.3918 1.0682 1.141 30.87%
2.3918=1.0682

3.92-
2005 3.92 0.4⋅3.46+0.6⋅2.3918=2.8191 1.1009 1.212 28.08%
2.8191=1.1009

4.45-
2006 4.45 0.4⋅3.92+0.6⋅2.8191=3.2595 1.1905 1.4174 26.75%
3.2595=1.1905

5.08-
2007 5.08 0.4⋅4.45+0.6⋅3.2595=3.7357 1.3443 1.8072 26.46%
3.7357=1.3443

5.28-
2008 5.28 0.4⋅5.08+0.6⋅3.7357=4.2734 1.0066 1.0132 19.06%
4.2734=1.0066

2009 5.17 0.4⋅5.28+0.6⋅4.2734=4.676 5.17-4.676=0.494 0.494 0.244 9.55%

 5.78-
2010 5.78 0.4⋅5.17+0.6⋅4.676=4.8736 0.9064 0.8215 15.68%
4.8736=0.9064

6.31-
2011 6.31 0.4⋅5.78+0.6⋅4.8736=5.2362 1.0738 1.1531 17.02%
5.2362=1.0738

6.58-
2012 6.58 0.4⋅6.31+0.6⋅5.2362=5.6657 0.9143 0.8359 13.90%
5.6657=0.9143

6.97-
2013 6.97 0.4⋅6.58+0.6⋅5.6657=6.0314 0.9386 0.8809 13.47%
6.0314=0.9386

7.68-
2014 7.68 0.4⋅6.97+0.6⋅6.0314=6.4069 1.2731 1.6209 16.58%
6.4069=1.2731

8.03-
2015 8.03 0.4⋅7.68+0.6⋅6.4069=6.9161 1.1139 1.2407 13.87%
6.9161=1.1139

2016 8.8 0.4⋅8.03+0.6⋅6.9161=7.3617 8.8-7.3617=1.4383 1.4383 2.0688 16.34%

10.0
2017 0.4⋅8.8+0.6⋅7.3617=7.937 10.04-7.937=2.103 2.103 4.4226 20.95%
4

2018 0.4⋅10.04+0.6⋅7.937=8.7782

17.745 21.063
Total 338.05%
5 3

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

MAE = 1∑|ei| = 17.7455= 1.0439
n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE)

MSE = 1∑|e2i| = 21.0633= 1.239
n 17

3. α = 0.6
Yea Exponential | Error |
Sales Error
r Smoothing(α=0.6) Error| 2 %Error|
1991 1.68 1.68

2001 2.54 0.6⋅1.68+0.4⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%

2002 2.38 0.6⋅2.54+0.4⋅1.68=2.196 2.38-2.196=0.184 0.184 0.0339 7.73%

2003 2.73 0.6⋅2.38+0.4⋅2.196=2.3064 2.73-2.3064=0.4236 0.4236 0.1794 15.52%

2004 3.46 0.6⋅2.73+0.4⋅2.3064=2.5606 3.46-2.5606=0.8994 0.8994 0.809 26%

2005 3.92 0.6⋅3.46+0.4⋅2.5606=3.1002 3.92-3.1002=0.8198 0.8198 0.672 20.91%

2006 4.45 0.6⋅3.92+0.4⋅3.1002=3.5921 4.45-3.5921=0.8579 0.8579 0.736 19.28%

2007 5.08 0.6⋅4.45+0.4⋅3.5921=4.1068 5.08-4.1068=0.9732 0.9732 0.947 19.16%

2008 5.28 0.6⋅5.08+0.4⋅4.1068=4.6907 5.28-4.6907=0.5893 0.5893 0.3472 11.16%

2009 5.17 0.6⋅5.28+0.4⋅4.6907=5.0443 5.17-5.0443=0.1257 0.1257 0.0158 2.43%

2010 5.78 0.6⋅5.17+0.4⋅5.0443=5.1197 5.78-5.1197=0.6603 0.6603 0.436 11.42%

2011 6.31 0.6⋅5.78+0.4⋅5.1197=5.5159 6.31-5.5159=0.7941 0.7941 0.6306 12.58%

2012 6.58 0.6⋅6.31+0.4⋅5.5159=5.9924 6.58-5.9924=0.5876 0.5876 0.3453 8.93%

2013 6.97 0.6⋅6.58+0.4⋅5.9924=6.3449 6.97-6.3449=0.6251 0.6251 0.3907 8.97%

2014 7.68 0.6⋅6.97+0.4⋅6.3449=6.72 7.68-6.72=0.96 0.96 0.9216 12.50%

2015 8.03 0.6⋅7.68+0.4⋅6.72=7.296 8.03-7.296=0.734 0.734 0.5388 9.14%

2016 8.8 0.6⋅8.03+0.4⋅7.296=7.7364 8.8-7.7364=1.0636 1.0636 1.1313 12.09%

10.0 10.04-
2017 0.6⋅8.8+0.4⋅7.7364=8.3746 1.6654 2.7737 16.59%
4 8.3746=1.6654

2018 0.6⋅10.04+0.4⋅8.3746=9.3738

Total 12.823 11.648 248.26%

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

MAE = 1∑|ei| = 12.823= 0.7543
n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE)

MSE = 1∑|e2i| = 11.648= 0.6852
n 17

4. α = 0.8

Yea Sale Exponential Smoothing Error |

Error |Error|
r s (α=0.8) 2 %Error|

1991 1.68 1.68

2001 2.54 0.8⋅1.68+0.2⋅1.68=1.68 2.54-1.68=0.86 0.86 0.7396 33.86%

2002 2.38 0.8⋅2.54+0.2⋅1.68=2.368 2.38-2.368=0.012 0.012 0.0001 0.50%

2003 2.73 0.8⋅2.38+0.2⋅2.368=2.3776 2.73-2.3776=0.3524 0.3524 0.1242 12.91%

2004 3.46 0.8⋅2.73+0.2⋅2.3776=2.6595 3.46-2.6595=0.8005 0.8005 0.6408 23.14%

2005 3.92 0.8⋅3.46+0.2⋅2.6595=3.2999 3.92-3.2999=0.6201 0.6201 0.3845 15.82%

2006 4.45 0.8⋅3.92+0.2⋅3.2999=3.796 4.45-3.796=0.654 0.654 0.4277 14.70%

2007 5.08 0.8⋅4.45+0.2⋅3.796=4.3192 5.08-4.3192=0.7608 0.7608 0.5788 14.98%

2008 5.28 0.8⋅5.08+0.2⋅4.3192=4.9278 5.28-4.9278=0.3522 0.3522 0.124 6.67%

5.17-5.2096=-
2009 5.17 0.8⋅5.28+0.2⋅4.9278=5.2096 0.0396 0.0016 0.77%
0.0396

2010 5.78 0.8⋅5.17+0.2⋅5.2096=5.1779 5.78-5.1779=0.6021 0.6021 0.3625 10.42%

2011 6.31 0.8⋅5.78+0.2⋅5.1779=5.6596 6.31-5.6596=0.6504 0.6504 0.423 10.31%

2012 6.58 0.8⋅6.31+0.2⋅5.6596=6.1799 6.58-6.1799=0.4001 0.4001 0.1601 6.08%

2013 6.97 0.8⋅6.58+0.2⋅6.1799=6.5 6.97-6.5=0.47 0.47 0.2209 6.74%

2014 7.68 0.8⋅6.97+0.2⋅6.5=6.876 7.68-6.876=0.804 0.804 0.6464 10.47%

2015 8.03 0.8⋅7.68+0.2⋅6.876=7.5192 8.03-7.5192=0.5108 0.5108 0.2609 6.36%

2016 8.8 0.8⋅8.03+0.2⋅7.5192=7.9278 8.8-7.9278=0.8722 0.8722 0.7607 9.91%

10.0 10.04-
2017 0.8⋅8.8+0.2⋅7.9278=8.6256 1.4144 2.0006 14.09%
4 8.6256=1.4144

2018 0.8⋅10.04+0.2⋅8.6256=9.7571
 10.175
Total 7.8565 197.71%
5

1. Mean absolute deviation (MAD)

MAE = 1∑|ei| = 10.1755= 0.5986
n 17

2. Mean squared error (MSE)

MSE = 1∑|e2i| = 7.8565= 0.4621
n 17

α MAD MSE
0.2 1.7092 3.3034
0.4 1.0439 1.239
0.6 0.7543 0.6852
0.8 0.5986 0.4621

Conclusion: The larger the MAD, the greater variability there is in the data (the data is more spread
out). The MAD helps determine whether the set's mean is a useful indicator of the values within the
set. The larger the MAD, the less relevant is the mean as an indicator of the values within the set.
There is no correct value for MSE. Simply put, the lower the value the better and 0 means the model
is perfect.

2. Calculate the Correlations for the following pairs of variables and write your Conclusion.

 In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Total MSMEs
 In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Active Companies
 In Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & 2017-18 GSDP -
CURRENT PRICES (` in Crore)
 Total MSMEs & Active Companies

Note: Use MS EXCEL, SPSS, SAS etc. for the calculations.

State Total MSMEs Active In Migration of 2017-18 GSDP

Companies Persons fromother – CURRENT
 states(Census of PRICES (`in
India) Crore)

ANDAMAN &
NICOBAR
ISLANDS 6,061 319 81,267 7,871

ANDHRA
PRADESH 6,41,929 1,16,210 15,91,890 15,46,313

ARUNACHAL
PRADESH 60,932 237 1,36,010 22,432

ASSAM 20,189 6,346 4,95,699 2,88,691

BIHAR 9,02,520 20,867 11,11,954 4,84,740

CHANDIGARH 11,209 7,956 6,33,966 38,760

CHHATTISGARH 69,758 7,109 12,67,668 4,84,740

DELHI 1,63,821 2,16,531 63,30,065 6,86,824

GOA 8,620 4,125 2,69,689 70,494

GUJARAT 8,07,378 62,619 39,16,075 13,28,068

HARYANA 1,85,486 30,868 36,26,318 6,49,592

HIMACHAL
PRADESH 14,674 3,344 3,95,504 1,38,351

JAMMU &
KASHMIR 9,399 2,745 1,55,187 1,37,427

JHARKHAND 1,57,813 9,554 21,95,521 2,76,243

KARNATAKA 3,32,872 68,333 32,47,660 13,57,579

KERALA 1,25,934 31,244 6,54,423 7,01,577

MADHYA
PRADESH 9,34,293 22,315 27,44,332 7,24,729

MAHARASHTRA 16,92,859 2,31,912 90,87,380 24,11,600

MANIPUR 34,423 434 20,100 23,835

 MEGHALAYA 2,208 560 1,07,915 30,790

MIZORAM 3,238 66 41,380 18,737

NAGALAND 1,543 235 1,08,020 24,492

ODISHA 1,19,291 15,204 8,55,096 4,34,769

PUDUCHERRY 10,539 1,282 3,39,967 32,962

PUNJAB 2,03,394 16,909 24,88,299 4,78,636

RAJASTHAN 5,72,546 37,022 26,04,298 8,35,170

SIKKIM 875 2 61,163 23,495

TAMIL NADU 10,32,490 76,675 16,50,771 14,61,841

TRIPURA 5,936 317 87,378 44,219

UTTAR PRADESH 8,87,413 70,863 40,61,933 14,60,443

UTTARAKHAND 40,443 4,792 12,50,575 2,22,836

WEST BENGAL 2,31,190 1,35,844 23,81,045 9,99,585

https:// https:// https:// https://

Data Source data.gov.in/ data.gov.in/ censusindia.gov.in/ data.gov.in/

Answer: a)Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) &
Total MSMEs

Total In X- Y– (X- (Y – (X-Mean of

Migrati X)*
MSMEs Mean of Mean of y Mean of X) Mean of y)
on of
(X) X (Y-Mean of y)
Persons ^2 ^2
from
other
states
(Census
of
India)
 (Y)

- -
284291.3 1606187.6 80821585899. 2579838686703 456625288419.
6061 81267 75 25 39 .14 23

-
159189 351576.6 - 123606123246 33598288326.8
641929 0 25 95564.625 .39 9132597551.39 9

- -
229420.3 1551444.6 52633708465. 2406980424441 355933007659.
60932 136010 75 25 14 .39 23

- -
270163.3 1191755.6 72988249191. 1420281469719 321968721825.
20189 495699 75 25 39 .14 23

- -
111195 612167.6 575500.62 374749201098 331200969375. 352302850792.
902520 4 25 5 .14 39 27

- -
279143.3 1053488.6 77921023806. 1109838283004 294074370306.
11209 633966 75 25 39 .39 61

- -
126766 220594.3 419786.62 48661878281. 176220810528. 92602568175.2
69758 8 75 5 64 89 3

- -
633006 126531.3 4642610.3 16010188859. 2155383109405 587435874338.
163821 5 75 75 39 7.60 02

- -
281732.3 1417765.6 79373131123. 2010059367431 399430476724.
8620 269689 75 25 14 .64 61

391607 517025.6 2228620.3 267315496906 4966748775865 1152253842272

807378 5 25 75 .64 .14 .11

185486 362631 - 1938863.3 10996956605. 3759191186916 -

8 104866.3 203321573756.
 75 75 64 .39 52

- -
275678.3 1291950.6 75998566442. 1669136417437 356162848880.
14674 395504 75 25 64 .89 23

- -
280953.3 1532267.6 78934798923. 2347844074623 430495760646.
9399 155187 75 25 89 .14 98

- -
219552 132539.3 508066.37 17566685925. 258131441405. 67338799801.0
157813 1 75 5 39 64 2

324766 42519.62 1560205.3 1807918510.1 2434240812178 66339347467.9

332872 0 5 75 4 .89 8

- -
164418.3 1033031.6 27033402037. 1067154338250 169849381106.
125934 654423 75 25 64 .14 11

274433 643940.6 1056877.3 414659528525 1116989785786 680566277405.

934293 2 25 75 .39 .89 86

908738 1402506. 7399925.3 196702483316 5475889555556 1037844436294

1692859 0 625 75 8.89 8.90 3.10

- -
255929.3 1667354.6 65499844987. 2780071445508 426725027079.
34423 20100 75 25 89 .89 61

- -
288144.3 1579539.6 83027180844. 2494945426945 455135458033.
2208 107915 75 25 14 .14 36

- -
287114.3 1646074.6 82434664331. 2709561671068 472611687160.
3238 41380 75 25 64 .89 23

- -
288809.3 1579434.6 83410855087. 2494613734648 456155526899.
1543 108020 75 25 89 .89 61
 - -
171061.3 832358.62 29261994016. 692820880611. 142384410885.
119291 855096 75 5 89 89 61

- -
279813.3 1347487.6 78295524828. 1815722899528 377045060121.
10539 339967 75 25 89 .14 98

- -
248829 86958.37 800844.37 7561758982.6 641351712969. 69640125477.8
203394 9 5 5 4 14 9

260429 282193.6 916843.37 79633241990. 840601774281. 258727355548.

572546 8 25 5 64 39 48

- -
289477.3 1626291.6 83797150636. 2644824449545 470774630589.
875 61163 75 25 89 .14 48

-
165077 742137.6 - 550768254440 27224298333.8
1032490 1 25 36683.625 .64 1345688343.14 9

- -
284416.3 1600076.6 80892674368. 2560245205871 455087993404.
5936 87378 75 25 14 .39 73

406193 597060.6 2374478.3 356481389925 5638147553342 1417707542626

887413 3 25 75 .39 .64 .48

- -
125057 249909.3 436879.62 62454695712. 190863806740. 109180314033.
40443 5 75 5 89 14 98

- -
238104 59162.37 693590.37 3500186615.6 481067608292. 41034453862.1
231190 5 5 5 4 64 4

539985 543512269378 1299618999485 1881438499552

9291276 48 0 0 7.5 44 7.5

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 9291276/32 = 290352.38

Mean of Y =∑Y/N =53998548/32 = 1687454.63

R Calculation
r = ∑((X – Mean of X)*(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑(X- Mean of X)^2*∑(Y- Mean of Y)^2)

r = 18814384995527.5 /√((5435122693787.5)*(129961899948544))

r = 0.7079

B) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & Active
Companies

In
Migrati
on of
Persons
from
other
states
(X-Mean of
(Censu
Active X- Y– X)
s of
Companies Mean Mean (X-Mean of (Y - Mean of
India) *(Y - Mean of
(X) (Y) of X of Y X)^2 Y)^2 Y)

- -
37269.7 1606187. 1389031935. 2579838686703. 59862161043.
319 81267 2 63 70 14 48

-
159189 78621.2 - 6181305865. 7513413259.6
116210 0 8 95564.63 39 9132597551.39 8

- -
37351.7 1551444. 1395150893. 2406980424441. 57949123289.
237 136010 2 63 58 39 20

6346 495699 - - 976107474.8 1420281469719. 37233685810.

31242.7 1191755. 9 14 61
 2 63

- -
111195 16721.7 575500.6 279615877.9 331200969375.3 9623359591.7
20867 4 2 3 5 9 0

- -
29632.7 1053488. 878098020.5 1109838283004. 31217732130.
7956 633966 2 63 2 39 95

- -
126766 30479.7 419786.6 929013255.0 176220810528.8 12794978265.
7109 8 2 3 8 9 01

633006 178942. 4642610. 32020340018 2155383109405 830759291457

216531 5 28 38 .95 7.60 .42

- -
33463.7 1417765. 1119820472. 2010059367431. 47443710128.
4125 269689 2 63 58 64 42

391607 25030.2 2228620. 626514979.4 4966748775865. 55782994785.

62619 5 8 38 5 14 73

-
362631 - 1938863. 3759191186916. 13030555438.
30868 8 6720.72 38 45168060.52 39 05

- -
34244.7 1291950. 1172700762. 1669136417437. 44242485792.
3344 395504 2 63 27 89 01

- -
34843.7 1532267. 1214084736. 2347844074623. 53389902175.
2745 155187 2 63 33 14 23

- -
219552 28034.7 508066.3 785945455.3 258131441405.6 14243497929.
9554 1 2 8 9 4 46

324766 30744.2 1560205. 945210829.5 2434240812178. 47967392856.

68333 0 8 38 8 89 76
 -
- 1033031. 1067154338250. 6554295120.4
31244 654423 6344.72 63 40255456.02 14 8

- -
274433 15273.7 1056877. 233286484.4 1116989785786. 16142447778.
22315 2 2 38 5 89 99

908738 194323. 7399925. 37761537635 5475889555556 143797777987

231912 0 28 38 .77 8.90 5.14

- -
37154.7 1667354. 1380473125. 2780071445508. 61950092148.
434 20100 2 63 39 89 39

- -
37028.7 1579539. 1371126012. 2494945426945. 58488328528.
560 107915 2 63 27 14 61

- -
37522.7 1646074. 1407954422. 2709561671068. 61765195195.
66 41380 2 63 39 89 39

- -
37353.7 1579434. 1395300304. 2494613734648. 58997756766.
235 108020 2 63 45 89 26

- -
22384.7 832358.6 501075633.5 692820880611.8 18632113719.
15204 855096 2 3 2 9 76

- -
36306.7 1347487. 1318177826. 1815722899528. 48922854219.
1282 339967 2 63 39 14 98

- -
248829 20679.7 800844.3 427650767.5 641351712969.1 16561236437.
16909 9 2 8 8 4 52

260429 916843.3 840601774281.3 -

37022 8 -566.72 8 321170.14 9 519592331.43

2 61163 - - 1412761426. 2644824449545. 61126965914.

 37586.7 1626291.
2 63 39 14 36

-
165077 39086.2 - 1527737381. 1433826484.0
76675 1 8 36683.63 95 1345688343.14 2

- -
37271.7 1600076. 1389181018. 2560245205871. 59637605945.
317 87378 2 63 58 39 45

406193 33274.2 2374478. 1107177792. 5638147553342. 79009061271.

70863 3 8 38 70 64 79

- -
125057 32796.7 436879.6 1075624760. 190863806740.1 14328218188.
4792 5 2 3 77 4 73

238104 98255.2 693590.3 9654100293. 481067608292.6 68148917367.

135844 5 8 8 52 4 92

539985 11196185015 1299618999485 325436143192

1202839 48 0.00 0.00 0.47 44.00 9.63

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 1202839/32 = 37588.71875

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 53998548/32 = 1687454.63

R Calculation
r = ∑((X – Mean of X)*(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑(X- Mean of X)^2*∑(Y- Mean of Y)^2)

r = 3254361431929.63 / √((111961850150.47)(129961899948544))

r = 0.8531

C) Correlations between Migration of Persons from other states (Census of India) & 2017-18
GSDP -CURRENT PRICES (` in Crore)

2017-18 In (X-Mean of
GSDP – Migrati X)*
X-Mean Y - Mean (X-Mean (Y - Mean
 on of
Persons
from
CURRE other
NT states
PRICES (Census
(` in of
Crore) India) (Y - Mean of
(X) (Y) of X of Y of X)^2 of Y)^2 Y)

- -
537374.0 1606187. 288770849461. 2579838686703 863123518990.
7871 81267 3 63 88 .14 11

-
1001067. 100213707805 95666685033.1
1546313 1591890 97 -95564.63 7.25 9132597551.39 1

- -
522813.0 1551444. 273333465644. 2406980424441 811115467212.
22432 136010 3 63 81 .39 77

- -
256554.0 1191755. 65819970950.6 1420281469719 305749709858.
288691 495699 3 63 3 .14 61

-
- 575500.6 331200969375. 34820683300.0
484740 1111954 60505.03 3 3660858806.56 39 2

- -
506485.0 1053488. 256527086880. 1109838283004 533576219154.
38760 633966 3 63 31 .39 65

-
- 419786.6 176220810528. 25399202863.9
484740 1267668 60505.03 3 3660858806.56 89 6

141578.9 4642610. 20044604392.3 2155383109405 657295989200.

686824 6330065 7 38 1 7.60 55

70494 269689 - - 225388541672. 2010059367431 673085692539.

 474751.0 1417765.
3 63 94 .64 55

782822.9 2228620. 612811800402. 4966748775865 1744615218174

1328068 3916075 7 38 56 .14 .24

104346.9 1938863. 10888289887.3 3759191186916 202314516001.

649592 3626318 7 38 1 .39 65

- -
406894.0 1291950. 165562752666. 1669136417437 525686997982.
138351 395504 3 63 88 .89 21

- -
407818.0 1532267. 166315546612. 2347844074623 624886366175.
137427 155187 3 63 63 .14 61

- -
269002.0 508066.3 72362092816.6 258131441405. 136670886884.
276243 2195521 3 8 3 64 82

812333.9 1560205. 659886476785. 2434240812178 1267407824338

1357579 3247660 7 38 13 .89 .83

- -
156331.9 1033031. 24439684453.2 1067154338250 161495867717.
701577 654423 7 63 5 .14 26

179483.9 1056877. 32214495038.2 1116989785786 189692545747.

724729 2744332 7 38 5 .89 08

1866354. 7399925. 348328086937 5475889555556 1381088749201

2411600 9087380 97 38 7.81 8.90 0.50

- -
521410.0 1667354. 271868420688. 2780071445508 869375427126.
23835 20100 3 63 13 .89 08

- -
514455.0 1579539. 264663979178. 2494945426945 812602107139.
30790 107915 3 63 44 .14 99

18737 41380 - - 277210706970. 2709561671068 866671510099.

 526508.0 1646074.
3 63 75 .89 33

- -
520753.0 1579434. 271183719556. 2494613734648 822495368629.
24492 108020 3 63 06 .89 96

- -
110476.0 832358.6 12204953480.7 692820880611. 91955677466.7
434769 855096 3 3 5 89 1

- -
512283.0 1347487. 262433904106. 1815722899528 690295045106.
32962 339967 3 63 69 .14 86

-
- 800844.3 641351712969. 53343468000.7
478636 2488299 66609.03 8 4436763044.06 14 6

289924.9 916843.3 84056487504.6 840601774281. 265815786845.

835170 2604298 7 8 9 39 52

- -
521750.0 1626291. 272223095109. 2644824449545 848517706165.
23495 61163 3 63 38 .14 36

-
916595.9 840148169928. 33624062794.1
1461841 1650771 7 -36683.63 75 1345688343.14 4

- -
501026.0 1600076. 251027083990. 2560245205871 801680041119.
44219 87378 3 63 13 .39 65

915197.9 2374478. 837587322004. 5638147553342 2173117785640

1460443 4061933 7 38 13 .64 .80

- -
322409.0 436879.6 103947583431. 190863806740. 140853936669.
222836 1250575 3 3 56 14 11

999585 2381045 454339.9 693590.3 206424807203. 481067608292. 315125829302.

7 8 75 64 80
 5399854 113265223189 1299618999485 3048736269443
17447841 8 0 0 11 44 2.4

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 17447841/32 = 545245.0313

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 53998548/32 = 1687454.63

R Calculation
r = ∑((X – Mean of X)*(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑(X- Mean of X)^2*∑(Y- Mean of Y)^2)

r = 30487362694432.4/ √((11326522318911)(129961899948544))

r = 0.7946

D) Correlations between Total MSMEs & Active Companies

(X-Mean of
Total Active Y– X)
Companies X-Mean Mean (X-Mean (Y - Mean
MSMEs *(Y - Mean of
(X) (Y) of X of Y of X)^2 of Y)^2 Y)

- -
284291. 37269.7 80821585899. 1389031935.7 10595459589.
6061 319 38 2 39 0 30

351576. 78621.2 123606123246 6181305865.3 27641404715.

641929 116210 63 8 .39 9 05

- -
229420. 37351.7 52633708465. 1395150893.5 8569245322.5
60932 237 38 2 14 8 2

- -
270163. 31242.7 72988249191. 8440638341.6
20189 6346 38 2 39 976107474.89 8

902520 20867 612167. - 374749201098 279615877.95 -

63 16721.7 .14 10236494853.
 2 11

- -
279143. 29632.7 77921023806. 8271777122.3
11209 7956 38 2 39 878098020.52 0

- -
220594. 30479.7 48661878281. 6723654507.8
69758 7109 38 2 64 929013255.08 3

- -
126531. 178942. 16010188859. 32020340018. 22641812892.
163821 216531 38 28 39 95 20

- -
281732. 33463.7 79373131123. 1119820472.5 9427812959.7
8620 4125 38 2 14 8 7

517025. 25030.2 267315496906 12941296807.

807378 62619 63 8 .64 626514979.45 21

-
104866. - 10996956605.
185486 30868 38 6720.72 64 45168060.52 704777412.71

- -
275678. 34244.7 75998566442. 1172700762.2 9440528417.3
14674 3344 38 2 64 7 3

- -
280953. 34843.7 78934798923. 1214084736.3 9789460380.3
9399 2745 38 2 89 3 6

- -
132539. 28034.7 17566685925. 3715704101.4
157813 9554 38 2 39 785945455.39 3

42519.6 30744.2 1807918510.1 1307235309.6

332872 68333 3 8 4 945210829.58 4
 -
164418. - 27033402037. 1043188346.7
125934 31244 38 6344.72 64 40255456.02 1

- -
643940. 15273.7 414659528525 9835367997.9
934293 22315 63 2 .39 233286484.45 5

1402506 194323. 196702483316 37761537635. 272539689344

1692859 231912 .63 28 8.89 77 .86

- -
255929. 37154.7 65499844987. 1380473125.3 9508983947.9
34423 434 38 2 89 9 9

- -
288144. 37028.7 83027180844. 1371126012.2 10669617021.
2208 560 38 2 14 7 27

- -
287114. 37522.7 82434664331. 1407954422.3 10773311942.
3238 66 38 2 64 9 21

- -
288809. 37353.7 83410855087. 1395300304.4 10788104166.
1543 235 38 2 89 5 11

- -
171061. 22384.7 29261994016. 3829160768.3
119291 15204 38 2 89 501075633.52 6

- -
279813. 36306.7 78295524828. 1318177826.3 10159105508.
10539 1282 38 2 89 9 61

- -
86958.3 20679.7 7561758982.6 1798274737.9
203394 16909 8 2 4 427650767.58 6

282193. 79633241990. -
572546 37022 63 -566.72 64 321170.14 159924418.42

875 2 - - 83797150636. 1412761426.3 10880504678.

 289477. 37586.7
38 2 89 9 61

742137. 39086.2 550768254440 1527737381.9 29007399936.

1032490 76675 63 8 .64 5 96

- -
284416. 37271.7 80892674368. 1389181018.5 10600687136.
5936 317 38 2 14 8 89

597060. 33274.2 356481389925 1107177792.7 19866763159.

887413 70863 63 8 .39 0 55

- -
249909. 32796.7 62454695712. 1075624760.7 8196207484.8
40443 4792 38 2 89 7 6

- -
59162.3 98255.2 3500186615.6 9654100293.5 5813015795.0
231190 135844 8 8 4 2 4

543512269378 111961850150 478543377211

9291276 1202839 0 0 7.5 .469 .375

Mean of X = ∑X/N = 9291276/32 = 290352.38

Mean of Y = ∑Y/N = 1202839/32 = 37588.71875

R Calculation
r = ∑((X – Mean of X)*(Y – Mean of Y)) /√∑(X- Mean of X)^2*∑(Y- Mean of Y)^2)

r = 478543377211.375/ √((5435122693787.5)(111961850150.469))

r = 0.6135

3. a. Summarized the following data by calculating the mean and standard deviation.
Note: You are advisable to use EXCEL. You are supposed to Copy the numbers
(finalcalculations) from EXCEL and paste them into your word document.
 Number of Indigenous Total
State District (Desi) Total Cattle Buffalo

UTTARAKHAND Uttarkashi 82991 25945

UTTARAKHAND Chamoli 132165 37922

UTTARAKHAND Rudraprayag 71277 31115

UTTARAKHAND Tehri Garhwal 80833 79394

UTTARAKHAND Dehradun 87753 52185

UTTARAKHAND Garhwal 235412 30076

UTTARAKHAND Pithoragarh 108417 37056

UTTARAKHAND Bageshwar 70863 31432

UTTARAKHAND Almora 132038 77444

UTTARAKHAND Champawat 45506 18599

UTTARAKHAND Nainital 101009 77759

UTTARAKHAND Udham Singh Nagar 63311 152911

UTTARAKHAND Hardwar 63728 214480

Data Source: Ministry of agriculture and farmers’ welfare.

3. b. Write about the general pattern (here, time series component) across the given years
usingan appropriate graph.
Note: You may use EXCEL, Tableau, Power BI Etc. for creating Graph
PLEASE CHECK THE TABLE BELOW

Year Pro Prod Year Prod Prod Year Prod Prod Year Prod Prod
duc uctiv uctiv uctiv uctiv uctiv u u
tivi ity ity ity ity ity ctivit ctivit
ty Rap Gro Rap Gro Rap y y
Gr e u e u e Grou Rape
o seed ndn seed ndn seed ndnut s
un & u & u & (Kg./ eed&
d Mus t Mus t Mus hecta Must
nut t (Kg./ t (Kg./ t r a
(Kg ard hect ard hect ard rd
 ./he (Kg./ (Kg./ (Kg./ (Kg./
cta hect hect hect hecta
r a a a a a r
e) re) re) re) re) re) e) e)

1950- 1968- 1986- 2003-

51 775 368 69 653 469 87 841 700 04 1357 1159

1951- 1969- 1987- 2004-

52 649 393 70 720 493 88 855 748 05 1020 1038

1952- 1970- 1988- 2005-

53 611 408 71 834 594 89 1132 906 06 1187 1117

1953- 1971- 1989- 2006-

54 811 389 72 823 396 90 930 831 07 866 1095

1954- 1972- 1990- 2007-

55 766 425 73 585 545 91 904 904 08 1459 1001

1955- 1973- 1991- 2008-

56 752 336 74 845 493 92 818 895 09 1163 1143

1956- 1974- 1992- 2009-

57 783 411 75 724 612 93 1049 776 10 991 1183

1957- 1975- 1993- 2010-

58 734 387 76 935 580 94 941 847 11 1411 1185

1958- 1976- 1994- 2011-

59 828 426 77 747 496 95 1027 958 12 1323 1121

1959- 1977- 1995- 2012-

60 708 365 78 866 460 96 1007 916 13 996 1262

1960- 1978- 1996- 2013-

61 745 467 79 835 525 97 1138 1017 14 1750 1188

1961- 1979- 1997- 2014-

62 725 425 80 805 411 98 1040 668 15 1400 1089

1962- 1980- 1998- 2015-

63 695 417 81 736 560 99 1214 869 16 1465 1183
1963- 1981- 1999- 2016-
64 769 300 82 972 541 00 766 960 17 1398 1304

1964- 1982- 2000- 2017-

65 814 507 83 732 577 01 977 935 18 1893 1410

1965- 1983- 2001- 2018-

66 554 446 84 940 673 02 1127 1002 19 1422 1511

1966- 1984- 2002- 2019-

67 604 408 85 898 771 03 694 854 20 2063 1331

1967- 1985- 2020-

68 759 483 86 719 674 21 1676 1511

Answer: a) Calculation of mean and standard deviation of Number of Indigenous (Desi) Total
Cattle

Number of Indigenous
dx = X – Mean of
State District (Desi) Total Cattle (X) X dx^2

UTTARAKHAND Uttarkashi 82991 -15109 228281881

UTTARAKHAND Chamoli 132165 34065 1160424225

UTTARAKHAND Rudraprayag 71277 -26823 719473329

UTTARAKHAND Tehri Garhwal 80833 -17267 298149289

UTTARAKHAND Dehradun 87753 -10347 107060409

UTTARAKHAND Garhwal 235412 137312 18854585344

UTTARAKHAND Pithoragarh 108417 10317 106440489

UTTARAKHAND Bageshwar 70863 -27237 741854169

UTTARAKHAND Almora 132038 33938 1151787844

UTTARAKHAND Champawat 45506 -52594 2766128836

UTTARAKHAND Nainital 101009 2909 8462281

UTTARAKHAND Udham Singh 63311 -34789 1210274521

 Nagar

UTTARAKHAND Hardwar 63728 -34372 1181434384

Total 1275303 3 28534357001

Mean of X = ∑X/N

= 1275303/13

= 98100

Standard deviation of X
σ=√∑dx2–{(∑dx)^2}/n
n

=√28534357001–{(3)^2}/13
13

=√28534357001-0.6923
13

=√28534357000.3077
13

=√2194950538.4852

=46850.2992

Calculation of mean and standard deviation of Total Buffalo

State District TotalBuffalo (y) dy = Y-Mean of Y dy^2

UTTARAKHAND Uttarkashi 25945 -40695 1656083025

UTTARAKHAND Chamoli 37922 -28718 824723524

UTTARAKHAND Rudraprayag 31115 -35525 1262025625

UTTARAKHAND Tehri Garhwal 79394 12754 162664516

 UTTARAKHAND Dehradun 52185 -14455 208947025

UTTARAKHAND Garhwal 30076 -36564 1336926096

UTTARAKHAND Pithoragarh 37056 -29584 875213056

UTTARAKHAND Bageshwar 31432 -35208 1239603264

UTTARAKHAND Almora 77444 10804 116726416

UTTARAKHAND Champawat 18599 -48041 2307937681

UTTARAKHAND Nainital 77759 11119 123632161

Udham Singh
UTTARAKHAND Nagar 152911 86271 7442685441

UTTARAKHAND Hardwar 214480 147840 21856665600

Total 866318 -2 39413833430

Mean of Y = Total of Y/N

= 866318/13

= 66640

Standard deviation of Y

σ = √∑dy2 – {(∑dy)^2}/n
n

= √ 39413833430 – {(-2)^2}/13
13

= √ 39413833430 -0.3077
13

= √ 39413833429.6923
13
= √ 3031833340.7456

= 55062.0862

B) A time series is a type of data that is longitudinal in nature, which can be used to analyze trends
and patterns, and to create model and ultimate predictions, based on the historical behavior of the
data. The most common time series analysis techniques are moving averages, exponential smoothing
and linear trend with seasonality.

Beyond the simple models, some extremely complex time series analysis can be computed, depending
of the complexity of the behavior and patterns exhibited by the time series data. Also, the accuracy of
time series forecasting depends on the complexity of the data and the appropriateness of the model
used.

Long Term Variation is the trend followed by the given data. It is a longer-term change. Here we
take into account the number of observations available and make a subjective assessment of what is
long term. It represents a relatively smooth, steady, and gradual movement of a time series in the
same direction. To understand the meaning of the long term, consider the climate variables. These
variables sometimes exhibit cyclic variation over a very long time period such as 50 years. If one just
had 20 years of data, this long term oscillation would appear to be a trend, but if several hundreds of
years of data are available, then long term oscillations would be visible. These movements are
systematic in nature where the movements are broad, steady, showing a slow rise or fall in the same
direction. The trend may be linear or non-linear (curvilinear). Some examples of secular trends are:

 Increase in prices,
 Increase in pollution,
 an increase in the need for wheat,
 an increase in literacy rate,
 the decrease in deaths due to advances in science. Taking averages over a certain period is a
simple way of detecting a trend in seasonal data. Change in averages with time is evidence of
a trend in the given series. There are more formal tests for detecting a trend in time series.
2500

2000

1500

1000

500

0
69 71 73 75 77 79 81 83 85 87 89 91 93 95 97 99 01 03 05 07 09 11 13 15 17 19 21
68- 70- 72- 74- 76- 78- 80- 82- 84- 86- 88- 90- 92- 94- 96- 98- 00- 02- 04- 06- 08- 10- 12- 14- 16- 18- 20-
19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 19 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20

Productivity Groundnut (Kg./hectare) Productivity Rape seed & Mustard (Kg./hectare)