L OK SA BHA EL EC T ION S 20 2 4 - MA HA RA SHTR A
[R ESU LT PRED ICT IO N ]
In the lead-up to the 2024 Lok Sabha elections, the political landscape in Maharashtra,
one of India's most in uential states, is marked by signi cant developments and
challenges. The state has recently experienced a major political shift due to party splits,
notably within the Shiv Sena and NCP, leading to realignments and new alliances.
These internal divisions have reshaped the political dynamics and added complexity to
the electoral scenario.
Additionally, Maharashtra is grappling with several critical issues that are in uencing
voter sentiment. Economic concerns, including unemployment and farmers' distress,
remain at the forefront. The impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on the state's
economy and public health systems has also left lasting e ects that are being keenly felt
by the electorate. Infrastructure development, urbanization challenges, and
environmental concerns are other pivotal issues that voters are considering as they head
to the polls.
This opinion poll aims to gauge the current political sentiments and voter inclinations
across Maharashtra, providing insights into the potential outcomes of the upcoming
elections. By analyzing voter preferences, party performance, and key issues in uencing
the electorate, this poll seeks to o er a comprehensive overview of the political climate
in Maharashtra as we approach the 2024 Lok Sabha elections results.
Re ecting on past scenarios, Maharashtra has a history of dynamic political shifts. The
2019 Lok Sabha elections, for instance, saw the emergence of strong coalitions and the
dominance of key parties like the Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) and the Shiv Sena
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PAST SCENARIOS 2009, 2014 & 2019
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2009 Lok Sabha Elections:
In 2009, the Indian National Congress (INC) emerged as the leading party in Maharashtra, winning 17
out of the 48 parliamentary seats. The Nationalist Congress Party (NCP), a key ally of the Congress in
Maharashtra, also performed well, securing 8 seats. The Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) won 9 seats, while
the Shiv Sena secured 11 seats. The Maharashtra Navnirman Sena (MNS), led by Raj Thackeray, won a
solitary seat.
2014 Lok Sabha Elections:
The 2014 Lok Sabha elections witnessed a signi cant shift in Maharashtra's political landscape. The
BJP, led by Narendra Modi, made substantial gains, capitalizing on the "Modi wave." The BJP won 23
seats, emerging as the single largest party in the state. Its ally, the Shiv Sena, secured 18 seats. The INC-
NCP alliance faced a severe setback, with the Congress winning just 2 seats and the NCP securing 4
seats. The MNS failed to win any seats in this election.
2019 Lok Sabha Elections:
In 2019, the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance continued its dominance in Maharashtra. The alliance won a
landslide victory, with the BJP securing 23 seats and the Shiv Sena winning 18 seats. The INC-NCP
alliance improved its performance compared to 2014, with the Congress winning 1 seat and the NCP
securing 4 seats. The MNS again failed to win any seats.
Analysis:
- BJP's Ascendancy: The BJP's rise in Maharashtra's Lok Sabha elections is noteworthy, particularly
from 2014 onwards. The party successfully capitalized on Narendra Modi's leadership and
nationalistic sentiments, gaining signi cant ground in the state.
- Shiv Sena's Role: The Shiv Sena has maintained its position as a key player in Maharashtra politics,
albeit with uctuations in its seat share. Its alliance with the BJP has been crucial in securing power
at the center as well as in the state.
- Decline of Congress-NCP: The Congress-NCP alliance witnessed a decline in its electoral
performance, especially in 2014. Although there was a slight improvement in 2019, the alliance
struggled to regain its earlier dominance in the state.
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L O K SA BHA EL EC TIONS 2 024 - M AH AR ASHT RA PHA SES
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L O K SA BHA EL EC TION S 20 2 4 - MA HA RA SHTR A PRE DI C TI O NS
Sr Name of Probable Winning Party Voting Total Total Votes in
N Parliamentary Candidate % Votes Constituency
o Constituency
1 Nandurbar (ST) Gowaal Padavi INC 70.68 1392635 1970327
2 Dhule Subhas Bhamre BJP 60.21 1217523 2022061
3 Jalgaon Smita Wagh BJP 58.47 1165968 1994046
4 Raver Raksha Khadse BJP 64.28 1170944 1821750
5 Buldhana ND Khedekar SS - UBT 62.03 1105761 1782700
6 Akola Anup Dhotre BJP 61.79 1168366 1890814
7 Amravati (SC) Balwant Wankhede INC 63.67 1169121 1836078
8 Wardha Amar Kale NCP - SP 64.85 1091351 1682771
9 Ramtek (SC) Shyamkumar Barve INC 61.01 1250190 2049085
10 Nagpur Nitin Gadkari BJP 54.32 1207738 2223281
11 Bhandara-Gondiya Prashant Padole INC 67.04 1224928 1827188
12 Gadchiroli-Chimur Krisan Namdev INC 71.88 1162476 1617207
(ST)
13 Chandrapur PS Danorkar INC 67.55 1241574 1837906
14 Yavatmal-Washim Sanjay Deshmukh SS - UBT 62.87 1220189 1940916
15 Hingoli Nagesh Ahtikar SS - UBT 63.54 1154958 1817734
16 Nanded VB Chavan INC 60.94 1128564 1851843
17 Parbhani Sanjay Jadhva SS - UBT 62.26 1321868 2123056
18 Jalna Raosaheb Danve BJP 69.18 1361226 1967574
19 Aurangabad Chandrakant B Khaire SS - UBT 63.03 1298227 2059710
20 Dindori (ST) Bhaskar Bhagare NCP - SP 66.75 1237180 1853387
21 Nashik Prakash Waje SS - UBT 60.75 1233379 2030124
22 Palghar (ST) Bharti Kamdi SS - UBT 63.91 1373162 2148514
23 Bhiwandi Kapil Patil BJP 59.89 1250090 2087244
24 Kalyan Srikant Shinde SS ES 50.12 1043610 2082221
25 Thane Rajan Vichare SS - UBT 52.09 1306194 2507372
26 Mumbai North Piyush Goyal BJP 57.02 1033241 1811942
27 Mumbai North-West Amol Kirtikar SS - UBT 54.84 951580 1735088
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28 Mumbai North-East Mihir Kotecha BJP 56.37 922760 1636890
29 Mumbai North- Varsha Gaikwad INC 51.98 906530 1744128
Central
30 Mumbai South- Anil Desai SS - UBT 53.60 790339 1474405
Central
31 Mumbai South Arvind Sawant SS - UBT 50.06 769010 1536168
32 Raigad Anant Geete SS - UBT 60.51 1009567 1668372
33 Maval Srirang Barne SS ES 54.87 1418439 2585018
34 Pune Murlidhar Mohol BJP 53.54 1103678 2061276
35 Baramati Supriya Sule NCP - SP 59.50 1411621 2372668
36 Shirur Dr. Amol Kolhe NCP - SP 54.16 1375593 2539702
37 Ahmednagar Nilesh Lanke NCP - SP 66.61 1320168 1981866
38 Shirdi (SC) Bhau Waghchaure SS - UBT 63.03 1057298 1677335
39 Beed Pankaja Munde BJP 70.92 1519526 2142547
40 Osmanabad Om Rajenimbalkar SS - UBT 63.88 1272969 1992737
41 Latur (SC) Shivaji Kalge INC 62.59 1237355 1977042
42 Solapur (SC) Praniti Shinde INC 59.19 1201586 2030119
43 Madha Mohite Patil NCP - SP 63.65 1267530 1991454
44 Sangli Vishal Patil IND 62.27 1163353 1868174
45 Satara Sashikant Shinde NCP - SP 63.16 1193492 1889740
46 Ratnagiri-Sindhudurg Vinayak Raut SS - UBT 62.52 907618 1451630
47 Kolhapur Ch. Shahu Maharaj INC 71.59 1386230 1936403
48 Hatkanangle SB Patil SS - UBT 71.11 1290073 1814277
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No of Seats
Name of Party Probable Winning
Contested
11
INC 17
16
SS - UBT 21
7
NCP - SP 10
34
I.N.D.I.A 48
No of Seats
Name of Party Probable Winning
Contested
BJP 28 11
SS - ES 15 2
NCP - AP 4 0
RSP 1 0
NDA 48 13
IND - 1
MY F INAL P RED ICT IO N
NDA - 13
I.N.D.I.A = 34 + 1 ( IND ) = 35
My election prediction forecasts a margin of ±5 Seats. Therefore, I expect the final result to be
within a range of 4-5% above or below our projected outcome.
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