Tavi Supriana

Program Studi Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian

Universitas Sumatera Utara
e-mail: tavihutasuhut@yahoo.co.id
Chicka Willy Yanti
Program Studi Agribisnis, Fakultas Pertanian
Universitas Sumatera Utara
e-mail: chickawillyyanti@yahoo.co.id
Abstract
This study analyzes the behavior of pepper exports, consisting of black pepper and white pepper,to
various destination countries. The results of this study showed that black pepper exports affected
by the destination country's gross domestic product (GDP), the price of white pepper, the popula-
tion of the country of destination and the exchange rate against the dollar. Meanwhile, white pepper
exports affected by the destination country's GDP, the population of the country of destination, the
price of black pepper, white pepper prices and the exchange rate against the dollar. The results also
showed that black pepper and white pepper are not mutually substituted.
Keywords: pepper, exports, GDP, population, exchange rate
JEL Classificaiton Numbers: F14, F19

Abstrak
Penelitian ini menganalisis perilaku ekspor lada, terdiri dari lada hitam dan lada putih, ke berbagai
negara tujuan. Hasil penelitian ini menunjukkan bahwa ekspor lada hitam dipengaruhi oleh Penda-
patan domestik bruto (PDB) negara tujuan, harga lada putih, populasi negara tujuan dan nilai tukar
rupiah terhadap dolar. Sementara itu, ekspor lada putih dipengaruhi oleh PDB negara tujuan, popu-
lasi negara tujuan, harga lada hitam, harga lada putih dan nilai tukar rupiah terhadap dolar. Hasil
penelitian juga menunjukkan bahwa lada hitam dan lada putih tidak saling bersubstitusi.
Keywords: Lada, ekspor, PDB, populasi, kurs
JEL Classificaiton Numbers: F14, F19
INTRODUCTION ing worldwide concerns regarding the crop
Pepper is one of the herbal plants that b e- (John, 2012), the consumption (Nwaopara
come one of the most important merchan- et al., 2007, Singletray, 2011), or the trade
dise goods as well as the most important (see Kiong et al., 2010).
spice traded internationally. Pepper is one Indonesia is one of the world's larg-
of the earliest types of spices traded in est producer of pepper. Pepper from Indo-
Europe. Pepper is used primarily in phar- nesia is exported in the form of black pep-
maceuticals and food industries (Ris- per and white pepper. In addition, Indone-
munandar, 2003). Pepper has been a sian pepper also sold in powder, green pep-
worldwide commodity and has been receiv- per and oil pepper. Besides Indonesia, mo-
jor pepper exporting countries are Brazil,
2

Vietnam, India and Malaysia. The black also shows that the Indonesian black pep-
pepper exports from major pepper produc- per exports value is lower than that of
ing countries are shown in Table 1 (For Vietnam.
more on production and export perform- Figure 2 shows that from 2003 to
ance of black pepper, please see Yogesh 2008, Indonesia is the largest exporter of
and Mokshapathy, 2013). white pepper in the world. During 2003-
Figure 1 shows that the Indonesian 2012, the average growth of export volume
black pepper exports have increased during decreased by 4.07% per year but the value
the periods. The value of exports from grew by 19.78% per year. In 2009, the
2003 to 2012 increased by 12.58% per number of Indonesian exports of white
year. The decline in the value of exports pepper has been exceeded by the number of
only occurred in 2004, 2005 and 2011. In pepper export from Vietnam. This is an
2011, the value of these exports plummeted alarming condition considering Vietnam is
by 48.38% from the previous year. Figure 1 a new country in spices export basiness.

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 1. Progress of Black Pepper Export

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 2. Progress of White Pepper Export
Prospect of Indonesia … (Supriana and Yanti) 3

!
"#$%& ' (

)*
!
"#$%& ' (

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 3. Progress of Black and White Peppers Exports
Figure 3 shows that the value of Indonesian Indonesia exports black and white
white pepper export exceeds the value peppers to various countries. Indonesian
those of black pepper. This is because both pepper export destination countries have
the number and the price of white pepper is various characteristics depends on their in-
bigger than those of black pepper. come, population, and the value of their
Throughout 2003-2012, black pepper ex- different currencies. These characteristics
port volume grew by an average of 12.58% will affect trade between Indonesia and ex-
per year, while its value grew by 20.66% port destination countries. The income of
per year. Meanwhile, the average growth of export destination countries (Gross Domes-
white pepper export volume during 2003- tic Product), the population of export desti-
2012 decreased by 4.07% per year, nation countries, the price of pepper, and
eventhough the value grew by 9.78% per the exchange rate are expected to affect the
year. export of Indonesian pepper.
Black pepper and white pepper are According to Marwoto (2008), the
actually commodities that come from the phenomenon of substitution between black
same tree. The difference between both and white peppers also have an impact on
commodities is based on the difference in developments in the pepper trade. The fact
harvesting time and in processing. Black that black pepper prices are always cheaper
pepper is harvested when it is ripe-picking than white peppers causes consumers
and dried with the skin without prior soak- choose black pepper. To analyze such phe-
ing process. White pepper are harvested honema, this paper conducts a research on
when it is fully ripe and dried after soaking factors influence black and white pepper
and stripping processes (Suwarto, 2002). In exports from Indonesia to various destina-
terms of utilization, both products have dif- tion countries.
ferences and similarities. Black pepper in- Soebtrianasari (2008) analyzing the
gredient is widely used for traditional medi- factors that affect the supply of white pep-
cines such as Java herbal and liniment. The per from Indonesia and the factors that i n-
outer skin of black pepper can also be re- fluence the demand for white pepper in the
fined to produce etheric oils and typical international market. She found that the
scented resine. That is why black pepper are Indonesia export of white pepper to the
still produced by the farmers (Sarpian, 2003) United States is strongly influenced by the
4

production of Indonesian white pepper, and Singapore demand for imports of white
white pepper export amount of the previous pepper are responsive to changes in popula-
year, and the real price of white pepper ex- tion.
ports. Meanwhile, white pepper exports to Different from previous studies, this
the Netherlands are only influenced by the research builds a model for black pepper
real price of white pepper exports. United export and another model for white pepper
States white pepper import demand is af- export. With these two models, the paper
fected by the US real income per capita and will be able to identify the influence of the
the number of the previous year imports of characteristics of export destination coun-
white pepper. Dutch white pepper import tries for the exports. This study focuses on
demand is influenced by the amount of the the influence of external variables of export
previous year imports of white pepper. destinations and testing the substitution
Marlinda (2008) analyzes the value level of black and white peppers. In addi-
of Revealed Comparative Advantage tion, this study uses a variety of observa-
(RCA) to see the competitiveness of pep- tion to answer the latest phenomenon,
per. The results of the research showed that namely a drastic decline in pepper exports
in 2006 the value of Indonesian pepper during 2011-2012. This study also uses a
RCA is 14.32 but its competitiveness is still different model from the previous ones,
lower than that of Vietnam. To improve its namely it uses a panel data model. This
competitiveness, Indonesia needs improve model is expected to be able to show the
the quality and quantity of sales pepper to best export destinations for black and white
develop and increase exports of pepper. peppers.
Triana (2000), using time series
data from the period 1969 to 1998 with the METHODS
simultaneous equations, tests the influence This study uses time series and cross section
of internal and external factors to the de- data. The time series data include annual
mand and supply of white pepper in the data from the period of 2001 to 2012. The
domestic and world markets. She found cross section data include eight of export
that the white pepper production is only destinations. To choose the country, this pa-
responsive to changes in long-term produc- per uses two criteria. First, it chooses coun-
tivity, but is not responsive to changes in tries that continuously trade pepper with In-
the price of pepper, fertilizer prices, wages, donesia for 12 years. Second, it
interest rates, and harvest area. White pep- choosescountries that simultaneously import
per exports to Germany, the Netherlands, black and white peppers. This selection re-
and Singapore are more responsive to sulted in 8 countries, namely the United
changes in production levels compared States, the Netherlands, Hong Kong, India,
with the change in the export price of white Germany, Japan, Singapore, and Taiwan.
and black peppers, exchange rates, interest The variables expected to affect exports of
rates and the volume of re-exports of pep- pepper are real GDP of export destination
per of Singapore. Demand for white pepper countries, the price of real exports of black
imports of United States and the Nether- pepper and white pepper in the destination
lands are more responsive to changes in country, the population of export destination
income compared to change in import countries, and the exchange rate.
prices of white and black peppers, the This paper estimates a panel data
number of inhabitants, and the exchange model, i.e. a model that accommodates a
rate. Japanese white pepper import demand combination of time series and cross sec-
is responsive to changes in the world price tion data. The estimation results of the
of black pepper. Meanwhile, the Germany panel data model is more efficient than that
Prospect of Indonesia … (Supriana and Yanti) 5

of regular models because it uses more ob- for an individual component, a time com-
servations. In addition, the use of panel ponent error and a combined error. The
data models can also reduce the effects of REM equation can formulated as follows:
bias due to the increasing degrees of free-
dom. According to Veerbek (2008), the = + + = + + (2)
availability of repeated observations on the
same unit allows economists to determine where
and estimate the model in a more complex u1 is error cross section component
and a more realistic ways than the model vt is error time-series component
with cross section data only or models with Wit is combined error component
time series data alone.
The approaches used in the analysis To choose the appropriate model, this paper
of panel data covering the pooled ordinary uses three tests, namely the Chow, Haus-
least squares, fixed effect model, and ran- man, and LM tests. Chow test was used to
dom effect model. Pooled least squares choose between the two models, namely
(PLS) models can be estimated using OLS. pooled least squares and fixed effect mod-
PLS assumes that both the intercept and the els. After doing the Chow test, this paper
slope are constant. Such a model does not conducts Hausman test to choose between
accommodate variations in individuals and the two models, namely the fixed effect
time. However, constant intercept and slope model and random effect model. In the last
are less realistic. To overcome these prob- step of model selection, this paper conducts
lems, we can use two types of panel data, a Lagrange Multiplier Test (LM test) to de-
namely the fixed effect model and random termine whether to use REM model or PLS
effect model. To accommodate variability model.
in intercepts, we can use a dummy variable, To analyze the behavior of exports
so the model is also known as a Least of black and white peppers to the destina-
square dummy variable (LSDV) model. tion countries, this paper estimates the fol-
The equation can be written as follows: lowing regression model:
= + + + + XLHijt= a0 + a1Yj+ a2PLHxj+ a3PLPxj+
(1)
+ + + + + a4POPj + a6 ERj + e1 (3)
where where
Yit is dependent variable for ith individual XLHijt is Volume of black pepper export to
at tth time. country j (tons)
Xit is independent variable for ith individ- Yj is GDPof export destination coun-
ual at tth time. try (USD billion)
Wit, Zit is dummy variable PLHxj is Price of black pepper in export
Wit is 1 for indivual i, and Wit = 0 therwise; destination country (USD/ton)
i = 1,2,….,N PLPxj is Price of white pepper in export
Zit is 1; for period t; and Zit = 0 otherwise; destination country (USD/ton)
t is 1,2,……T POPj is Population of export destination
country (juta orang
For the REM method, considering there are ERj is Exchange rates (Rp/USD)
two components that have contributed to t is Periods (year)
the formation of error, i.e. the individual a0 is constant
and time, then the random error in REM ai is koefisien regresi ( i: 1,2,3,....)
also needs to be decomposed into an error e1 is error term
6

The determinant of white pepper export to discussion on panel data, please refer to
the destination countries are Hsiao (2005), among others.
XLPijt =b0+b1Yj+b2PLHxj + b3 PLPxj RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS
+b4POPj +b5ERj+ e2 (4) Progress of Indonesia Pepper Export
where: Indonesia has been exporting pepper to
XLHijt is Volume of white pepper export to various countries. These countries have a
country j (tons) variety of characters that could affect ex-
Yj is GDP of export destination coun- ports. The pepper importing countries have
try (USD billion) different tastes of the black pepper and
PLHxj is Price of black pepper in export white pepper. This can be inferred from the
destination country (USD/ton) export volumeof to these countries.
PLPxj is Price of white pepper in export
destination country (USD/ton) Black and White Peppers Exports to the
POPj is Population of export destination USA
country (juta orang The USA imports peppers from Indonesia,
ERj is Exchange rates (Rp/USD) Brazil, India, Vietnam and Malaysia. Indo-
t is Periods (year) nesia is a major exporter of pepper to the
a0 is constant United States. The progress of Indonesia
ai is koefisien regresi ( i: 1,2,3,....) black and white peppers exports to the
e2 is error term United States in 2001 to 2012 are presented
in Figure 4.
Panel data includes more information, have Figure 4 shows that the number of
a little collinearity between variables, have black pepper exports exceeds the number
more degree of freedom, as well as more of white pepper exports. Black pepper ex-
efficient, so that a panel data model does ports increased by 10:31% per year, while
not require classical assumptions. For more exports increased by 7.7% of white pepper
per year.

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 4. Pepper Export to the USA
Prospect of Indonesia … (Supriana
Supriana and Yanti) 7

Black and White Peppers Exports to the The progress of Indonesia black and white
Netherlands peppers exports to Hongkong are presented
Netherlands imports peppers from mostly in Figure 6. The number of black and white
Vietnam, Brazil, Indonesia, India, Malay-
Mala pepper exports to Hong Kong experienced a
sia. The progress of Indonesia black and substantial decline in 2002. After 2002, the
white peppers exports to Netherlands are export of pepper tends to increase.
increase The ex-
presented in Figure 5. The number of Indo- ports of black pepper increases by 33.04%
33.04
nesian exports of white pepper to the Neth- per year, while white pepper export increase
erlands tend to fall throughout 2007-2012, only 8.83% per year.
approximately 13.94% % per year. Mean-
while, the number of black pepper exports Black and White Peppers Exports to India
increased by 31.6%
% per year. Eventhough India produces pepper, but In-
dia also imports pepper, mostly, from Sri
Black and White Peppers Exports to Lanka, Indonesia, Vietnam,
Vietnam China, Brazil.
Hongkong The development of Indonesia exports of
Hongkong imports peppers mostly from In- black pepper and white pepper to India are
donesia, Malaysia, India, China, Vietnam. presented in Figure 7.

Source IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Source:
Figure 5. Pepper Export to Netherlands

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 6. Pepper Export to Hongkong
8

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 7. Pepper Export to India
The number of Indonesian black pepper white pepper to Germany are presented in
exports to India increased by 20.49% per Figure 8.
year throughout 2001-2012
2012. Meanwhile, in Indonesia white pepper exports to
the same period, the number of Indonesian Germany increased by 6.38% per year dur-
exports of white pepper to India increased ing 2001-2010, and then drastically de-
by 8.01% per year creased by 42% in 2011. The number of
black pepper exports to Germany plum-
Black and White Peppers Exports to meted 35.27% in 2002 and 74% in 2005.
Germany Indonesia black pepper export starts to in-
Based on the report of trade attaché Em- crease in 2006 by 13.71%
% per year.
bassy in Berlin in 2013, Germany imports
of pepper grows 11% per year throughout Black and White Peppers Exports to Japan
2008-2012. Germany imported pepper Japan imported pepper mainly from Malay-
mainly from Vietnam, Brazil,
Brazil the Nether- sia, Indonesia, India, Vietnam,
Vietnam Brazil. The
lands, Indonesia, India. The development development of Indonesia pepper exports to
of Indonesia exports of black pepper and Japan are presented in Figure 9.

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 8. Pepper Export to Germany
Prospect of Indonesia … (Supriana
Supriana and Yanti)
Yanti 9

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 9. Pepper Export to Japan
In 2005, the number of Indonesia white Figure 10 shows that the number of
pepper exports to Japan began to decline, white pepper exports fell by 19.83% per
while the amount of black pepper exports year throughout 2005--2009. Meanwhile,
began to rise sharply. The number of white the number of black pepper exports in-
pepper exports fell by 13.51% per year creased by 22.73% % per year. For the record,
throughout the last four years. Meanwhile, Singapore is processed pepper exporting
the number of black pepper exports in- i countries. International Pepper Community
creased by 48.64% per year. states that the development of black pepper
exports to Singapore in 2001 to 2012 fluc-
Black and White Peppers Exports to tuated. A very interesting phenomenon is
Singapore the tendency of white pepper exports that
Singapore imports pepperpper mainly from declines sharply.
Vietnam, Indonesia, Malaysia,
Malaysia India,
Madagascar. Up to 2009,
2009 the export of Black and White Peppers Exports to
pepper to Singapore is dominated by white Taiwan
pepper, but after 2009 the export of black Taiwan imported pepper mainly from Viet-
pepper and white pepper are likely the nam, Brazil, Indonesia,
Indonesia India, Malaysia.
same amount. The development of exports The development of Indonesia exports of
of black pepper and white pepper Indonesia black pepper and white pepper to Taiwan is
to Singapore is presented in Figure 10. presented in Figure 11.

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 10. Pepper Export to Singapore
10

Source: IPC Statistical Yearbook 2012

Figure 11. Pepper Export to Taiwan
Figure 11 shows that the highest number of The estimation result of the FEM also has a
white pepper exports occurred in 2002 higher R2 (93.11%) than the PLS does
amounted to 426 tons with a value of (79.89). This means that the result of the
USD561 thousand. The exports of black FEM model is better than that of PLS. The
pepper was the highest in 2009 amounted to same results were shown by the estimates
430 tons with a value of USD157 thousand. of white pepper equation.
equation The F-test and
Export of black pepper and white pepper in- chi-square values of the model has a p-
creases and decreases simultaneously.
simultaneously as higher R2 as well.
value 0.0000, and it has
The next step is to choose the best
Choosing the Panel Data Model model between two options,
options namely FEM
This paper uses Chow test to determine the with REM, by using the Hausman test. The
best model from two competing models, estimates of REM and the Hausman test are
namely the Fixed Effects Model (FEM) and presented in Table 2.
Random Effects Model (REM).
REM). Chow test The p-value for black pepper export
results and the estimation are presented in equation is 0.0077 so that H0 is rejected at
Table 1. 1% significance level. The R2 for FEM and
The p-value
value of both F-test
F and chi- REM are 93.1% and 46.8%,
46.8 respectively,
square for the equation of black pepper ex-
e indicating that the FEM is better the best
port is 0.0000 which allows us to reject H0. one for the black pepper export equation.
This means that FEM is better than PLS.
Table 1: Chow Test
PLS FEM Chow Test
Equations 2 2
R R F-test Chi-Square
Square
Blac Pepper 0,798 0,931 0,0000 0,0000
White Pepper 0,076 0,590 0,0000 0,0000
Table 2: Hausman Test on Black and White Peppers Equations
FEM REM Uji Hausman
Persamaan
R2 R2 p-value
Lada Hitam 0.931 0.468 0.0077
Lada Putih 0.590 0.121 0.3176
Prospect of Indonesia … (Supriana and Yanti) 11

Hausman test for white pepper ex- Individual Effect of Destination Export
port equation shows the p-value of 0.3176 of Black Pepper
(> 5%) so that H1 is rejected. Thus, the Individual effects (cross section effect)
REM model is better than the FEM model showed the different from each cross sec-
for white pepper export equation. However, tion. Individual effects for each export des-
this result is not consistent with the results tination is obtained by adding the value of
of the estimation. The estimation results the constant equation of black pepper ex-
indicate that the R2 for FEM and PLS portsto each individual coefficient:
models are 59% and 12.1%, respectively.
This indicates that the FEM model is better Individual = Constant + Individual (5)
than the REM model. For such cases, when Effect Coefficient
the number of time series observations is Individual effect of black pepper export
greater than the number of cross section destination country can be seen in table 4.
observations, the recommended approach is The USA and Singapore are coun-
the FEM one. tries with positive individual effects. This
Factors Affecting Export of Black Pepper means that both countries are the most po-
tential black pepper export country destina-
The estimation results for black pepper ex- tions. If we assume that all the independent
ports are presented in Table 3. Variables variables change, or constant, jointly,
significantly affecting black pepper export across countries and over time, the export
to the USA, the Netherlands, Hong Kong, destination country will give individual im-
India, Germany, Japan, Singapore, and pact on Indonesia black pepper export as
Taiwan during 2001-2012 are GDP, the indicated by the value of the individual ef-
price of white pepper, population and ex- fect. The USA and Singapore are the export
change rates. Meanwhile, the price of black destination countries for Indonesia black
pepper does not affect the export of Indo- pepper that will provide a positive individ-
nesian black pepper. The R2 value of 85.4% ual influence, namely 3989.104 and
and the prob(F stat) of 0,00000 indicating 1368.23, respectively.
the the model is a good one.
Table 3: Estimation Result of Factors Affecting Black Pepper Export*
Variable Coefficient Probability
C -1880.053 0.0272
GDP 0.694987 0.0003
Price of Black Pepper Export (PLH) 0.006969 0.8055
Price of White Pepper Export (PLP) -0.053904 0.0035
Population (POP) 12.58262 0.0001
Exchange Rates (ER) 0.043683 0.0050
Fixed Effect (Cross)
The USA 5869.667
The Netherlands 1682.426
Hongkong 1490.113
India -9668.895
Germany -902.0474
Japan -2916.880
Singapore 3248.801
Taiwan 1196.814
R2 = 0.854028, Adjusted R2= 0.832924, Prob (F-Stat) = 0.000
*Notes: FEM Methods with the Weight of Cross Section SUR
12

Table 4: Individual Effect of Export Destination Countries

Country Individual Effect
The USA 3989.104
The Netherlands -198.137
Hongkong -390.45
India -11549.5
Germany -2782.61
Japan -4797.44
Singapore 1368.238
Taiwan -683.749
Factors Influencing White Pepper Export The Individual Effect of White Pepper
The estimation results of Indonesia white Export Destination Countries
pepper export is in Table 5. Variables that The individual effect of each Indonesia ex-
affect the Indonesia export of black pepper port destination country is in Table 6.
and white pepper are GDP, prices of black
and white peppers, population, and the ex-
change rate against the dollar.
Table 5. Estimation Result of Factors Affecting White Pepper Export*
Variable Coefficient Probability
C 709,4278 0,1288
GDP 1,391079 0,0000
Harga Ekspor Lada Putih (PLP) -0,320052 0,0001
Harga Ekspor Lada Hitam (PLH) 0,360322 0,0000
Populasi (POP) 9,621072 0,0000
Nilai tukar (ER) -0,411170 0,0000
Fixed Effect (Cross)
The USA -12934.26
The Netherlands 4457.718
Hongkong 3612.029
India -7613.155
Germany 751.3863
Japan -3288.265
Singapore 11504.31
Taiwan 3510.240
R2 = 0,885101, Adjusted R2 = 0,868489, Prob (F-Stat) = 0.000
*Notes: FEM Methods with the Weight of Cross Section SUR
Table 6. Individual Effect of Exporting Destination Countries
Country Individual Effect
The USA -12224.8
The Netherlands 5167.146
Hongkong 4321.457
India -6903.73
Germany 1460.814
Japan -2578.84
Singapore 12213.74
Taiwan 4219.668
Prospect of Indonesia … (Supriana and Yanti) 13

The country with the biggest individual ef- prices in the destination country does not
fect is Singapore, while the country with the significantly influence the Indonesian black
smallest individual effect is the USA. The pepper exports in the destination country.
Netherlands, Hongkong, Germany, Singa- GDP of the destination country, In-
pore and Taiwan have positive individual donesian black pepper prices in the destina-
effects which means that they are the best tion country, and the population of the des-
white pepper export destination countries. tination country have a positive effect on
Indonesia white pepper export. Indonesian
CONCLUSION white pepper prices in the destination coun-
This study found that the Gross Domestic try and exchange rates negatively affect
Product (GDP) of export destination coun- Indonesian white pepper export.
tries, the population of export destination The best export destination coun-
countries, and the exchange rate against the tries for Indonesian black pepper are the
dollar positively affect the export of Indo- USA and Singapore, while the best export
nesian black pepper. Indonesian white pep- destination countries for Indonesian white
per prices in the country of destination pepper are The Netherlands, Hong Kong,
negatively affect Indonesian exports of Germany, Singapore and Taiwan. This pa-
black pepper in the destination country. per also found that black and white peppers
Meanhile, the Indonesian black pepper are not subtitute each other.

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