Physics Behind the Climate Change
Jeevan Regmi
Department of Physics, Prithvi Narayan Campus, Pokhara
Abstract: There is an urgent need for science to inform society about the cost of failure to address the global warming. The
challenges offered by global climate change have not been fully recognized by the public and decision making bodies. The
severity of climate change has not been taken seriously. It is limited to declarations and propagandas only. Time has come
to act globally.
Keywords: Energy balance, solar variation, global warming, greenhouse gases, deforestation, feedback, forcing agent
1.INTRODUCTION: ocean circulation may affect the climate through the
Climate change is a significant time variation in movement of CO2 into or out of the atmosphere.
weather patterns occurring over periods ranging
from decades to millions of years. Climate change Earth orbital changes - The earth is tilted at an
may refer to a change in average weather conditions, angle of 23.5° to the perpendicular plane of its
or in the time variation of weather around longer- orbital path. Changes in the tilt of the earth can
term average conditions. lead to small but climatically important changes
in the strength of the seasons, more tilt means
2. NATURAL CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE warmer summers and colder winters; less tilt
The earth’s climate is influenced and changed through means cooler summers and milder winters.
natural causes like volcanic eruptions, ocean current,
the earth’s orbital changes and solar variations.
Volcanic eruptions - The volcanic eruptions throw
out large volumes of sulphur dioxide (SO2), water
vapour, dust, and ash into the atmosphere. Large
volumes of gases and ash can influence climatic
patterns for years by increasing planetary reflectivity
causing atmospheric cooling. Tiny particles called
aerosols are produced by volcanoes which reflect solar
energy back into space causing a cooling effect on
the world. The greenhouse gas, carbon dioxide is also
produced however the CO2 produced is insignificant
when compared to emissions created by humans.
Ocean current - Ocean currents move vast
amounts of heat across the planet. Winds push
horizontally against the sea surface and drive Solar variations -. Although the Sun’s energy
ocean current patterns. Deep ocean circulation output appears constant from an everyday point
of cold water from the poles towards the equator of view, small changes over an extended period of
and movement of warm water from the equator time can lead to climate changes. As the sun is the
back towards the poles. Without this movement fundamental source of energy that is instrumental in
the poles would be colder and the equator warmer. our climate system it would be reasonable to assume
The oceans play an important role in determining that changes in the sun's energy output would cause
the atmospheric concentration of CO2. Changes in the climate to change.
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Current global warming however cannot be the world. It is especially clear in the dramatic
explained by solar variations. Some examples change of the polar caps, i.e. the Arctic ice cap is
are evidenced such as since 1750, the average shrinking and the Antarctica ice shelf is melting.
amount of energy coming from the Sun either There other elements of people's homes that
remained constant or increased slightly. contribute to climate change indirectly. Everything,
If global warming was caused by a more active from furniture to computers, from clothes to
sun, then scientists would expect to see warmer carpets, all use energy when it is produced and
temperatures in all layers of the atmosphere. They transported – and this causes carbon emissions to
have only observed a cooling in the upper atmosphere, be released. The three main causes of the increase in
a warming at the surface and in the lower parts of greenhouse gases observed over the past 250 years
the atmosphere. This is due to greenhouse gasses have been fossil fuels, land use, and agriculture.
capturing heat in the lower atmosphere. Also climate Agriculture has been shown to produce significant
models that include solar irradiance changes cannot effects on climate change, primarily through the
reproduce last century's observed temperature trend production and release of greenhouse gases such as
without including a rise in greenhouse gases. carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide.
3.MAN MADE CAUSES OF CLIMATE CHANGE Another contributing cause of climate change is
The climate is changing due to man-made greenhouse when agriculture alters the Earth's land cover, which
gases. We are already committed to future substantial can change its ability to absorb or reflect heat and
change over the next 30 years and change is likely light. Land use change such as deforestation and
to accelerate over the rest of the 21st century. desertification, together with use of fossil fuels, are
the major anthropogenic sources of carbon dioxide.
The Industrial Revolution in the 19th century saw
the large-scale use of fossil fuels for industrial Deforestation is another major contributor to
activities. Fossil fuels such as oil, coal and natural gas
the Climate change. Rainforests are precious
supply most of the energy needed to run vehicles, resource in our world. They form part of a delicate
generate electricity for industries and households. ecosystem that has taken millions of years to evolve.
The energy sector is responsible for about 3/4 of Rainforests every year help to absorb almost 20%
the carbon dioxide emissions, 1/5 of the methane of manmade CO2 emissions therefore deforestation
emissions and a large quantity of nitrous oxide. can be classed as a major contributor to the causes
of climate change. Cutting down rainforests faster
Carbon dioxide is undoubtedly, the most important than they can be replaced has a devastating effect on
greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. Changes in land the carbon emission cycle producing an extra 17% of
use pattern, deforestation, land clearing, agriculture, greenhouse gases.
and other activities have all led to a rise in the
emission of carbon dioxide. Methane is another Forests reduce greenhouse gas emissions to combat
important greenhouse gas in the atmosphere. It is global warming. 20% of global greenhouse gas
released from animals such as dairy cows, goats, emissions result from deforestation and degradation
pigs, buffaloes, camels, horses and sheep. Methane of forest, more than all the world's cars, trucks, ships
is also emitted during the process of oil drilling, coal and planes combined. Fossil fuels release carbon
mining, leaking gas pipelines, landfills and waste dioxide into the atmosphere contributing to global
dumps. warming and climate change. Forest alleviates this
The certainty of global warming can be seen through change by converting carbon dioxide to carbon
some of the natural phenomenon like the effect during photosynthesis. The world's forests contain
on crops and extreme weather conditions around about 125 percent of the carbon found in the
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atmosphere. This carbon is stored in the form of
wood and vegetation through "carbon sequestration".
The atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration in
the pre-industrial era was 280 ppm. Now the level
has risen to 375 ppm, a 30% increase. It is predicted
that the level will be 450 ppm in 2050 resulting
in 1.8 to30C increase in temperature eventually.
Therefore, global warming will produce a sharp
upswing followed by a deep plunge into a glacial
period several thousand years from now. A potential
impacts such as increased cyclone intensity; melting This template shows that the average temperature
of polar iceberg and glaciers; increased salinity on the top of atmosphere is very cold and that at the
and changes in oceanic currents sea level rise and surface is a bit cold. A modification is introduced
inundation of low lying cities. Coral bleaching and for surface temperature using following relations.
mortality of coral reef; colonization of invasive
species and species migration; changes in ecosystem; Energy balance at the surface, and at the top of
mass extinction; ozone layer depletion; water atmosphere, gives
shortage; and spreading of diseases - is predicted. " On solving these two equations , we obtain;
Ta = 255 K and Tg = 300K
4. THE PHYSICS OF CLIMATE CHANGE This time it is a little too warm, but it is an
Weather and climate are driven by the absorption of improvement.
solar radiation and the subsequent re-distribution Water vapour is a ‘feedback’ for greenhouse gases.
of that energy through radiative, advective, and CO , CH , O etc are forcing’ agents .They stay in
2 4 3
hydrological processes. The average temperature of the atmosphere whatever and ‘force’ more heat
the Earth is essentially determined by the balance into the climate system. This effect is measured by
between incoming solar radiation and outgoing ‘ ‘Radiative forcing constant’. More CO means more
2
heat’ ’ radiation. A change in this radiative balance warmth which causes more H O to be evaporated.
2
is termed a radiative forcing, which is measured in Water vapour goes in and out of the atmosphere
Watts per square meter. very quickly. Carbon dioxide is there for ~ 100 years.
That makes a very big difference in the way they act.
It doesn’t matter how much water vapour is in the
atmosphere, adding CO2and CH4will absorb more
IR because they absorb different parts of the IR
radiation spectrum. H2O and CO2 molecules and
other Greenhouse Gases(GHGs) are susceptible to take
on energy, especially in IR range of EMR which they
radiate re- radiate in random directions. So some goes
back down to Earth giving rise to the Greenhouse effect.
According to Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change(IPCC),"The radiative forcing of the surface-
troposphere system due to the perturbation in or the
introduction of an agent (say, a change in greenhouse
gas concentrations) is the change in net (down minus
up) irradiance (solar plus long-wave; in Wm-2) at
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the tropopause AFTER allowing for stratospheric an increase in trapped radiation and the associated
temperatures to readjust to radiative equilibrium, butwarming is expected to increase the level of water
with surface and tropospheric temperatures and state vapor in the atmosphere, which would tend to further
enhance the greenhouse effect, a positive feedback.
held fixed at the unperturbed values". (IPCC) It means the
A negative feedback would be an increase in clouds
extra heat flowing into (or out of) the climate system as a
that reflected more sunlight back into space. The
result of a change in some part of the system. (in W/m²).
actual feedback from changes in clouds is uncertain
The gases in the atmosphere absorb, and then re- since they also act to trap outgoing infrared radiation.
radiate some parts of the spectrum but not others.
The structure of the molecule determines what sort of It is the balance between positive and negative
energy is absorbed. Oxygen and Nitrogen molecules feedbacks which will determine the net effect of
respond to high energy EMR in UV region. increased greenhouse gases. While climate models
agree that the net effect will be warming, the amount of
warming (and other changes) given by various models
is different. The current central warming estimate,
developed by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate
Change (IPCC), is a global average temperature rise of
two degrees centigrade by the year 2100 AD.
5. CONCLUSIONS
With the increase in economic and population
growth the increase in use of energy is inevitable
which is the primary source of greenhouse gases.
This graph shows the temperature variations for One of the largest uncertainties in future greenhouse
past 140 years. It shows how temperature is rapidly emissions is the effect of technological change. If
increasing in past 40 years. renewable energy sources become cost-effective,
if there are major gains in the efficiency of energy
The relationships between the atmospheric utilization, or if there is a large increase in the use
concentration of greenhouse gases and their radiative of nuclear energy (fission or fusion), then emissions
effects are well quantified. Forcing from the long- of greenhouse gases may be substantially restrained
lived greenhouse gases: carbon dioxide, methane,
The degree to which the climate will change in the
and nitrous oxide, is presently about 2.5 Watts per
future is still uncertain. However climate change
meter squared (W/m2). Of this total, 1.6 W/m2 is
may lead to significant damage to both human and
from carbon dioxide alone. The total anthropogenic
natural systems.
forcing is uncertain, particularly because the
magnitude of the negative forcing associated with REFERENCES:
sulfate aerosols is unclear. While changes in solar 1. Wikipedia free encyclopedia
irradiance may have affected global climate in the 2. Journal of Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics,
last century, a 0.15% change irradiance, the order of 7, 2287–2312, 2007
estimated changes, results in only a 0.36 W/m2 forcing. 3. www.climatechangechallange.org/Resource
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from greenhouse gas emissions, particularly those 4. http://w w w.ipcc.ch/presentations_and_
of carbon dioxide, to atmospheric concentrations. speeches/presentations_and_speeches.shtml
The largest source of uncertainty lies in determining 5. http://www.aps.org/policy/reports/popa-
the magnitude of climate feedbacks. For example, reports/energy/climate.cfm
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