Kewal Kiran Clothing 05062024 Anand
Kewal Kiran Clothing 05062024 Anand
4 June 2024
haven’t factored in Kraus Casuals’ acquisition. We upgrade our rating to a Promoters 74.3 74.3 74.3
- of which, Pledged - - -
Buy, with a lower 12-mth Rs811 TP (earlier Rs831), 18x FY26e EV/EBITDA.
Free float 25.7 25.7 25.7
In-line revenue. Q4 revenue grew 10% y/y to Rs2.2bn, led by ~23% y/y rise in - Foreign institutions 2.1 2.5 2.6
overall volumes to 3.62m pieces. Apparel volume grew ~10% y/y to 2.37m pieces.
Overall, ASP fell ~10% y/y to Rs604. The gross margin (incl. manufacturing - Domestic institutions 8.9 8.6 8.0
expenses) was flat y/y at 44.6%. EBITDA grew ~9% y/y to Rs424m. The - Public 14.8 14.6 15.1
EBITDA margin fell ~20bps y/y to 19.3%. PAT grew ~20% y/y to Rs379m. Estimates revision (%) FY25e FY26e
Retail/non-retail channels brought 47%/53% to FY24 sales (~48%/52% last year), Sales (2.7%) (2.7%)
but both continued to grow at the same pace. EBITDA (3.8%) (3.7%)
Healthy OCF/FCF. WC days improved to 102 (135 in FY23), led by 43 y/y lower EPS (1.6%) (1.9%)
inventory days as the company is trying to reduce its finished goods inventory to
sync it with the fast-changing trends in fashion industry. This, along with more Relative price performance
900
profitability led to healthier, Rs1.4bn/1.3bn, OCF/FCF generation (FY23
Rs0.8bn/0.5bn). Net cash reserves were Rs3.7m (Rs2.5bn in FY23). 800
700
`Acquiring a 50% stake in Kraus Casuals would aid the company’s entry into 600
women’s denim/casual wear while KKCL will bring synergies through its
500
distribution network and manufacturing capabilities. Kraus Jeans operates through
400
1,000+ LFS and eight EBOs. The LFS channel accounts for 90% of its revenue.
Nov-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Jun-23
Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Oct-23
Apr-24
May-24
Valuation. We upgrade our rating to a Buy, with a lower TP of Rs811, 18x FY26e
KEKC Sensex
EV/ EBITDA. Risks: Keener competition hurting volumes, realisation growth,
Source: Bloomberg
RM price fluctuations.
Key financials (YE Mar) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e
Sales (Rs m) 6,076 7,795 8,605 9,919 11,553
Net profit (Rs m) 816 1,190 1,541 1,647 1,952
EPS (Rs) 13.2 19.3 25.0 26.7 31.7
P/E (x) 15.1 21.6 26.8 23.8 20.1
EV / EBITDA (x) 9.9 15.3 21.2 16.7 13.7
Vaishnavi Mandhaniya
P/BV (x) 2.6 4.7 6.1 5.1 4.4
Research Analyst
RoE (%) 17.9 23.2 25.2 22.7 23.4
RoCE (%) 13.9 18.9 20.2 20.0 20.9
Dividend yield (%) 9.5 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.9
Shreya Baheti
Net debt / equity (x) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.6) Research Associate
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research
Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.
(Rs) (Rs m)
900 3,000
2,625
800
2,500
2,263 2,194
700
1,991 1,995 2,002
600 2,000
1,784
1,696
500 1,545
1,500
400
300 1,000
200
500
100
0 0
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Sep-20
Aug-22
Aug-23
Aug-21
Nov-22
Dec-20
Nov-21
Nov-23
Jun-20
Jun-21
May-22
May-23
May-24
Mar-21
Mar-22
Feb-23
Feb-24
Results Highlights
Fig 7 – Quarterly & annual results
(Rs m) Q4 FY24 Q4 FY23 %Y/Y Q3 FY24 % Q//Q FY24 FY23 %Y/Y
Revenue 2,194 1,995 10.0 2,002 9.6 8,605 7,795 10.4
Gross margins, % 44.6 44.7 -7bps 43.3 132bps 43.4 42.4 97bps
Employee expenses 269 253 6.1 264 1.9 1,053 979 7.6
Other expenses 286 248 15.4 215 33.4 909 808 12.5
EBITDA 424 390 8.7 389 9.2 1,771 1,519 16.6
EBITDA margins, % 19.3 19.6 -23bps 19.4 -8bps 20.6 19.5 110bps
Interest 6 18 -69.1 12 -51.3 44 64 -31.8
Depreciation 26 24 8.9 26 -2.3 104 87 18.8
Other income 86 75 14.5 93 -7.2 369 202 82.3
PBT 479 423 13.1 443 8.0 1,993 1,570 26.9
Tax 100 108 -7.7 111 -9.8 452 379 19.3
Tax rate, % 20.9 25.6 -469bps 25.0 -413bps 22.7 24.1 -145bps
PAT 379 315 20.2 332 13.9 1,541 1,190 29.4
EPS (Rs) 6.1 5.1 20.2 5.4 13.9 25.0 19.3 29.4
Source: Company
40 130 5.0
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
38
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
1.8 400
300
1.2
200
0.6
100
0.0 0
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
Q4FY22
Q1FY23
Q2FY23
Q3FY23
Q4FY23
Q1FY24
Q2FY24
Q3FY24
Q4FY24
10% 10%
0% 0%
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
FY19
FY20
FY21
FY22
FY23
FY24
Retail Non-retail
Jeans Shirts Trousers T-shirt Others
Source: Company Note: Retail includes EBO and LFS; Non-retail includes MBO, e-com,
Source: Company exports, factory & seconds
Change in estimates
We lower our FY25e/FY26e revenue ~2.7% on average each year as the
management revised its guidance to 15-18% revenue growth in FY25 (15-20%
earlier), excl. the recent acquisition, due to tough market conditions.
Our FY25e/26e EBITDA is ~3.8% lower on average each year. Thus, our
FY25e/FY26e EPS is 1.6%/1.9% lower.
Valuation
We upgrade our rating to a Buy, with a lower 12-mth TP of Rs811
(previously Rs831), 18x FY26e EV/EBITDA. Better return ratios and
comfortable liquidity keep us sanguine about the company.
80
70
60
50
40
30 +1STD
20
Mean
10
-1STD
0
May-17
Jun-19
Jan-21
May-18
Jun-20
Jan-22
May-23
May-24
Feb-17
Feb-18
Feb-23
Feb-24
Mar-20
Mar-19
Aug-16
Aug-17
Nov-16
Aug-18
Nov-17
Dec-18
Sep-19
Sep-20
Aug-23
Dec-19
Nov-23
Jul-21
Oct-21
Jul-22
Oct-22
Apr-22
Apr-16
Apr-21
Risk
◼ Keener competition could pare volumes and realisation growth.
Jan-20
Jan-21
Apr-18
Jan-19
Jan-22
Oct-18
Apr-19
Oct-19
Apr-20
Oct-20
Apr-21
Oct-21
Nov-22
Nov-23
Aug-22
Aug-23
Feb-23
Feb-24
Jul-18
Jul-19
Jul-20
Jul-21
May-22
May-24
May-23
20 28-Apr-23 Buy 588 462
21 07-Aug-23 Hold 768 715
22 25-Oct-23 Hold 952 785
23 23-Jan-24 Hold 831 745
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