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Kewal Kiran Clothing 05062024 Anand

KKCl Anand Rathi

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53 views8 pages

Kewal Kiran Clothing 05062024 Anand

KKCl Anand Rathi

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greyistari
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Retail

India I Equities Company Update

Change in Estimates  Target  Reco 

4 June 2024

Kewal Kiran Clothing Rating: Buy


Healthy cashflow, growing presence in women’s wear; upgrading to a Buy Target Price (12-mth): Rs.811
In line with our estimates, Kewal Kiran’s Q4 revenue grew 10% y/y, but the Share Price: Rs.636
19.3% EBITDA margin slightly lagged ARe. Better working capital led to
higher, Rs1.4bn/1.3bn, OCF/FCF generation (FY23 Rs0.8bn/0.5bn). The Key data KEKC IN / KKCL.BO
company strengthened its presence in women’s wear by acquiring a 50% 52-week high / low Rs827 / 478
stake in Kraus Casuals for Rs1.7bn. Management revised its FY25 revenue Sensex / Nifty 72079 / 21885
growth guidance to 15-18% (15-20% earlier), excl. the recent acquisition, due 3-m average volume $0.4m
Market cap Rs39bn / $469.2m
to tough market conditions, with 18-20% EBITDA margins. Growth ahead
Shares outstanding 62m
would be driven by SSSG, the channel mix, network expansion and category
extensions to kids’ and women’s wear. We lower our FY25e/26e revenue/
EBITDA ~3%/4% on average each year on the revised guidance. We Shareholding pattern (%) Mar’24 Dec’23 Sept’23

haven’t factored in Kraus Casuals’ acquisition. We upgrade our rating to a Promoters 74.3 74.3 74.3
- of which, Pledged - - -
Buy, with a lower 12-mth Rs811 TP (earlier Rs831), 18x FY26e EV/EBITDA.
Free float 25.7 25.7 25.7
In-line revenue. Q4 revenue grew 10% y/y to Rs2.2bn, led by ~23% y/y rise in - Foreign institutions 2.1 2.5 2.6
overall volumes to 3.62m pieces. Apparel volume grew ~10% y/y to 2.37m pieces.
Overall, ASP fell ~10% y/y to Rs604. The gross margin (incl. manufacturing - Domestic institutions 8.9 8.6 8.0
expenses) was flat y/y at 44.6%. EBITDA grew ~9% y/y to Rs424m. The - Public 14.8 14.6 15.1

EBITDA margin fell ~20bps y/y to 19.3%. PAT grew ~20% y/y to Rs379m. Estimates revision (%) FY25e FY26e
Retail/non-retail channels brought 47%/53% to FY24 sales (~48%/52% last year), Sales (2.7%) (2.7%)
but both continued to grow at the same pace. EBITDA (3.8%) (3.7%)
Healthy OCF/FCF. WC days improved to 102 (135 in FY23), led by 43 y/y lower EPS (1.6%) (1.9%)
inventory days as the company is trying to reduce its finished goods inventory to
sync it with the fast-changing trends in fashion industry. This, along with more Relative price performance
900
profitability led to healthier, Rs1.4bn/1.3bn, OCF/FCF generation (FY23
Rs0.8bn/0.5bn). Net cash reserves were Rs3.7m (Rs2.5bn in FY23). 800
700
`Acquiring a 50% stake in Kraus Casuals would aid the company’s entry into 600
women’s denim/casual wear while KKCL will bring synergies through its
500
distribution network and manufacturing capabilities. Kraus Jeans operates through
400
1,000+ LFS and eight EBOs. The LFS channel accounts for 90% of its revenue.
Nov-23
Dec-23
Aug-23
Sep-23
Jul-23
Jul-23
Jun-23

Jan-24
Feb-24
Mar-24
Oct-23

Apr-24
May-24
Valuation. We upgrade our rating to a Buy, with a lower TP of Rs811, 18x FY26e
KEKC Sensex
EV/ EBITDA. Risks: Keener competition hurting volumes, realisation growth,
Source: Bloomberg
RM price fluctuations.
Key financials (YE Mar) FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e
Sales (Rs m) 6,076 7,795 8,605 9,919 11,553
Net profit (Rs m) 816 1,190 1,541 1,647 1,952
EPS (Rs) 13.2 19.3 25.0 26.7 31.7
P/E (x) 15.1 21.6 26.8 23.8 20.1
EV / EBITDA (x) 9.9 15.3 21.2 16.7 13.7
Vaishnavi Mandhaniya
P/BV (x) 2.6 4.7 6.1 5.1 4.4
Research Analyst
RoE (%) 17.9 23.2 25.2 22.7 23.4
RoCE (%) 13.9 18.9 20.2 20.0 20.9
Dividend yield (%) 9.5 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.9
Shreya Baheti
Net debt / equity (x) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.6) Research Associate
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Anand Rathi Share and Stock Brokers Limited (hereinafter “ARSSBL”) is a full-service brokerage and equities-research firm and the views expressed therein are solely of
ARSSBL and not of the companies which have been covered in the Research Report. This report is intended for the sole use of the Recipient. Disclosures and analyst
certifications are present in the Appendix.

Anand Rathi Research India Equities


4 June 2024 Kewal Kiran Clothing – Healthy cashflow, growing presence in women’s wear; upgrading to a Buy

Quick Glance – Financials and Valuations


Fig 1 – Income statement (Rs m) Fig 2 – Balance sheet (Rs m)
Year-end: Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e Year-end: Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e
Net revenues 6,076 7,795 8,605 9,919 11,553 Share capital 616 616 616 616 616
Growth (%) 100.7 28.3 10.4 15.3 16.5 Net worth 4,781 5,470 6,757 7,741 8,965
Direct costs 2,880 3,723 4,266 4,563 5,314 Debt (incl. Pref.) 766 508 25 25 25
SG&A 2,196 2,553 2,568 3,267 3,736 Minority interest - - - - -
EBITDA 1,000 1,519 1,771 2,089 2,503 DTL / (Assets) - - 43 43 43
EBITDA margins (%) 16.5 19.5 20.6 21.1 21.7 Capital employed 5,547 5,978 6,825 7,809 9,033
- Depreciation 70 87 104 148 167 Net tangible assets 844 1,077 1,157 1,419 1,582
Other income 170 202 369 259 272 Net intangible assets 3 3 2 14 14
Interest expenses 45 64 44 4 4 Goodwill - - - - -
PBT 1,055 1,570 1,993 2,195 2,603 CWIP (tang. & intang.) 9 13 - - -
Effective tax rate (%) 22 24 23 25 25 Investments (strategic) - - - - -
+ Associates / (Minorities) -2 -1 -1 - - Investments (financial) 1,418 1,537 1,781 1,781 1,781
Net income 816 1,190 1,541 1,647 1,952 Current assets (excl. cash) 3,187 3,834 3,241 4,647 5,413
Adjusted income 816 1,190 1,541 1,647 1,952 Cash 1,970 1,705 2,192 2,720 3,472
WANS 62 62 62 62 62 Current liabilities 1,883 2,190 1,547 2,772 3,229
FDEPS (Rs) 13.24 19.31 25.00 26.7 31.7 Working capital 1,303 1,644 1,694 1,875 2,184
FDEPS growth (%) 312.2 45.8 29.4 6.9 18.6 Capital deployed 5,547 5,978 6,825 7,809 9,033
Gross margins (%) 52.6 52.2 50.4 54.0 54.0 Contingent liabilities - - - - -

Fig 3 – Cash-flow statement (Rs m) Fig 4 – Ratio analysis


Year-end: Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e Year-end: Mar FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e
PBT 1,080 1,608 2,000 1,940 2,335 P/E (x) 15.1 21.6 26.8 23.8 20.1
+ Non-cash items (12) (41) (145) 148 167 EV / EBITDA (x) 9.9 15.3 21.2 16.7 13.7
Oper. prof. before WC 1,069 1,567 1,855 2,089 2,503 EV / Sales (x) 1.6 3.0 4.4 3.5 3.0
- Incr. / (decr.) in WC 265 466 101 181 309 P/B (x) 2.6 4.7 6.1 5.1 4.4
Others incl. taxes 235 350 396 549 651 RoE (%) 17.9 23.2 25.2 22.7 23.4
Operating cash-flow 569 751 1,358 1,359 1,543 RoCE (%) - after tax 13.9 18.9 20.2 20.0 20.9
- Capex (tang. + intang.) 92 237 94 423 330 RoIC 31.6 40.3 42.7 44.6 47.0
Free cash-flow 477 514 1,264 936 1,213 DPS (Rs) 19.0 5.0 2.0 10.7 11.8
Acquisitions Dividend yield (%) 9.5 1.2 0.3 1.7 1.9
- Div.(incl. buyback & taxes) 370 493 246 663 729 Div. payout (%) - incl. DDT 143.5 25.9 8.0 40.2 37.3
+ Equity raised - - - - - Net debt / Equity (x) (0.5) (0.5) (0.6) (0.5) (0.6)
+ Debt raised 100 50 (350) - - Receivables (days) 103 80 86 102 102
- Fin investments (63) (36) 30 - - Inventory (days) 68 78 35 58 58
- Misc. (CFI + CFF) 44 59 44 (255) (268) Payables (days) 32 23 18 36 36
Net cash-flow 226 48 594 529 752 CFO : PAT (%) 69.7 63.1 88.1 82.5 79.0
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 5 – Price movement Fig 6 – Revenue trend

(Rs) (Rs m)
900 3,000
2,625
800
2,500
2,263 2,194
700
1,991 1,995 2,002
600 2,000
1,784
1,696
500 1,545
1,500
400
300 1,000

200
500
100
0 0
Q4FY22

Q1FY23

Q2FY23

Q3FY23

Q4FY23

Q1FY24

Q2FY24

Q3FY24

Q4FY24
Sep-20

Aug-22

Aug-23
Aug-21

Nov-22
Dec-20

Nov-21

Nov-23
Jun-20

Jun-21

May-22

May-23

May-24
Mar-21

Mar-22

Feb-23

Feb-24

Source: Bloomberg Source: Company

Anand Rathi Research 2


4 June 2024 Kewal Kiran Clothing – Healthy cashflow, growing presence in women’s wear; upgrading to a Buy

Results Highlights
Fig 7 – Quarterly & annual results
(Rs m) Q4 FY24 Q4 FY23 %Y/Y Q3 FY24 % Q//Q FY24 FY23 %Y/Y
Revenue 2,194 1,995 10.0 2,002 9.6 8,605 7,795 10.4
Gross margins, % 44.6 44.7 -7bps 43.3 132bps 43.4 42.4 97bps
Employee expenses 269 253 6.1 264 1.9 1,053 979 7.6
Other expenses 286 248 15.4 215 33.4 909 808 12.5
EBITDA 424 390 8.7 389 9.2 1,771 1,519 16.6
EBITDA margins, % 19.3 19.6 -23bps 19.4 -8bps 20.6 19.5 110bps
Interest 6 18 -69.1 12 -51.3 44 64 -31.8
Depreciation 26 24 8.9 26 -2.3 104 87 18.8
Other income 86 75 14.5 93 -7.2 369 202 82.3
PBT 479 423 13.1 443 8.0 1,993 1,570 26.9
Tax 100 108 -7.7 111 -9.8 452 379 19.3
Tax rate, % 20.9 25.6 -469bps 25.0 -413bps 22.7 24.1 -145bps
PAT 379 315 20.2 332 13.9 1,541 1,190 29.4
EPS (Rs) 6.1 5.1 20.2 5.4 13.9 25.0 19.3 29.4
Source: Company

Fig 8 – Gross-margin trend Fig 9 – EBITDA and EBITDA margin trends


(%) (Rsm) (%)
46 650 23.5 25.0
22.1
45 44.7 44.6 19.6 19.4
520 19.0 19.0 19.1 19.3 20.0
44 16.9
43.2 43.3
42.8 43.0
43 42.7 390 15.0

42 41.4 260 10.0


41 40.6

40 130 5.0

39 322 293 500 336 390 341 617 389 424


0 0.0
Q4FY22

Q1FY23

Q2FY23

Q3FY23

Q4FY23

Q1FY24

Q2FY24

Q3FY24

Q4FY24
38
Q4FY22

Q1FY23

Q2FY23

Q3FY23

Q4FY23

Q1FY24

Q2FY24

Q3FY24

Q4FY24

EBITDA Margin (RHS)

Source: Company Note: Includes manufacturing expenses Source: Company

Fig 10 – Volume growth trend Fig 11 – Realisation trend


(pcs m) (Rs/piece)
4.2 900
3.85
3.62 800 767
3.6
3.23 679 699 678 681
3.04 700 660 673
2.94 2.92 604
3.0 582
2.57 600
2.48
2.4 2.33
500

1.8 400
300
1.2
200
0.6
100
0.0 0
Q4FY22

Q1FY23

Q2FY23

Q3FY23

Q4FY23

Q1FY24

Q2FY24

Q3FY24

Q4FY24

Q4FY22

Q1FY23

Q2FY23

Q3FY23

Q4FY23

Q1FY24

Q2FY24

Q3FY24

Q4FY24

Source: Company Source: Company

Anand Rathi Research 3


4 June 2024 Kewal Kiran Clothing – Healthy cashflow, growing presence in women’s wear; upgrading to a Buy

Fig 12 – Sales break-up, by product Fig 13 – Channel-wise sales


100% 100%
8% 11% 13% 14% 13%
90% 5% 19% 90%
5% 5% 5% 5%
80% 10% 9% 8% 80%
5% 8% 9%
6% 57% 52% 53%
70% 70% 59% 61% 58%
16%
18% 18% 22%
60% 18% 22% 60%
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 60% 57% 56% 30%
51% 51% 53% 48% 47%
20% 20% 41% 43% 39% 42%

10% 10%
0% 0%

FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
FY19

FY20

FY21

FY22

FY23

FY24
Retail Non-retail
Jeans Shirts Trousers T-shirt Others
Source: Company Note: Retail includes EBO and LFS; Non-retail includes MBO, e-com,
Source: Company exports, factory & seconds

Anand Rathi Research 4


4 June 2024 Kewal Kiran Clothing – Healthy cashflow, growing presence in women’s wear; upgrading to a Buy

Change in estimates
We lower our FY25e/FY26e revenue ~2.7% on average each year as the
management revised its guidance to 15-18% revenue growth in FY25 (15-20%
earlier), excl. the recent acquisition, due to tough market conditions.
Our FY25e/26e EBITDA is ~3.8% lower on average each year. Thus, our
FY25e/FY26e EPS is 1.6%/1.9% lower.

Fig 14 – Estimate revisions


Old New Change (%)

Rs m FY25e FY26e FY25e FY26e FY25 FY26

Revenue 10,191 11,870 9,919 11,553 (2.7) (2.7)


EBITDA 2,172 2,599 2,089 2,503 (3.8) (3.7)
PAT 1,674 1,990 1,647 1,952 (1.6) (1.9)
EPS (Rs) 27.2 32.3 26.7 31.7 (1.6) (1.9)
Source: Anand Rathi Research

Anand Rathi Research 5


4 June 2024 Kewal Kiran Clothing – Healthy cashflow, growing presence in women’s wear; upgrading to a Buy

Valuation
We upgrade our rating to a Buy, with a lower 12-mth TP of Rs811
(previously Rs831), 18x FY26e EV/EBITDA. Better return ratios and
comfortable liquidity keep us sanguine about the company.

Fig 15 – Valuation parameters


FY22 FY23 FY24 FY25e FY26e
P/E (x) 15.1 21.6 26.8 23.8 20.1
EV / EBITDA (x) 9.9 15.3 21.2 16.7 13.7
EV / Sales (x) 1.6 3.0 4.4 3.5 3.0
RoIC (%) 31.6 40.3 42.7 44.6 47.0
RoE (%) 17.9 23.2 25.2 22.7 23.4
Source: Company, Anand Rathi Research

Fig 16 – Valuation table, FY26e (Rs m)


EBITDA 2,503
Multiple (x) 18.0
Enterprise value 45,047
Net debt (5,006)
Market cap 50,052
No. of shares outstanding (m) 61.6
Target price (Rs) 811
CMP (Rs) 636
Upside (%) 27.5
Source: Anand Rathi Research

Fig 17 – One-year-forward EV/EBITDA


90

80

70

60

50

40

30 +1STD
20
Mean
10
-1STD
0
May-17

Jun-19

Jan-21
May-18

Jun-20

Jan-22

May-23

May-24
Feb-17

Feb-18

Feb-23

Feb-24
Mar-20
Mar-19
Aug-16

Aug-17
Nov-16

Aug-18
Nov-17

Dec-18

Sep-19

Sep-20

Aug-23
Dec-19

Nov-23
Jul-21
Oct-21

Jul-22
Oct-22
Apr-22
Apr-16

Apr-21

Source: Bloomberg, Anand Rathi Research

Risk
◼ Keener competition could pare volumes and realisation growth.

Anand Rathi Research 6


Appendix
Analyst Certification
The views expressed in this Research Report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about the subject securities or issuers and no part of the
compensation of the research analyst(s) was, is, or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst(s)
in this report. The research analysts are bound by stringent internal regulations and also legal and statutory requirements of the Securities and Exchange Board of
India (hereinafter “SEBI”) and the analysts’ compensation are completely delinked from all the other companies and/or entities of Anand Rathi, and have no bearing
whatsoever on any recommendation that they have given in the Research Report.

Important Disclosures on subject companies


Rating and Target Price History (as of 31 May 2024)
TP Share
2,500 KEKC Date Rating (Rs) Price (Rs)
8 29-Jan-20 Buy 298 209
2,000 9 27-Apr-20 Buy 203 157
1 10 27-May-20 Buy 217 140
2
1,500 5 11 30-Jul-20 Buy 210 136
4 12 26-Oct-20 Buy 194 152
7 8
3 13 14 13 26-Jan-21 Hold 213 178
1,000 6 9 12 22 23 14 30-Oct-21 Buy 304 239
18 19 21 15 29-Jan-22 Buy 306 226
500 10 11 16 12-May-22 Buy 203 303
15 17
20 17 26-Jul-22 Hold 360 334
0 16 18 22-Oct-22 Hold 525 489
19 23-Jan-23 Hold 521 479
Jan-18

Jan-20

Jan-21
Apr-18

Jan-19

Jan-22
Oct-18

Apr-19

Oct-19

Apr-20

Oct-20

Apr-21

Oct-21

Nov-22

Nov-23
Aug-22

Aug-23
Feb-23

Feb-24
Jul-18

Jul-19

Jul-20

Jul-21

May-22

May-24
May-23
20 28-Apr-23 Buy 588 462
21 07-Aug-23 Hold 768 715
22 25-Oct-23 Hold 952 785
23 23-Jan-24 Hold 831 745

Anand Rathi Ratings Definitions


Analysts’ ratings and the corresponding expected returns take into account our definitions of Large Caps, Mid Caps & Small Caps as described in the Ratings
Table below:
Ratings Guide (12 months)
Buy Hold Sell
Large Caps (Top 100 companies) >15% 0-15% <0%
Mid Caps (101st-250th company) >20% 0-20% <0%
Small Caps (251st company onwards) >25% 0-25% <0%

Research Disclaimer and Disclosure inter-alia as required under Securities and Exchange Board of India (Research Analysts) Regulations, 2014
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Other Disclosures pertaining to distribution of research in the United States of America


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Act) and interpretations thereof by U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) in reliance on Rule 15a 6(a)(2). If the recipient of this report is not a Major Institutional
Investor as specified above, then it should not act upon this report and return the same to the sender. Further, this report may not be copied, duplicated and/or transmitted onward
to any U.S. person, which is not the Major Institutional Investor. In reliance on the exemption from registration provided by Rule 15a-6 of the Exchange Act and interpretations
thereof by the SEC in order to conduct certain business with Major Institutional Investors, ARSSBL has entered into a chaperoning agreement with a U.S. registered broker-
dealer, Marco Polo Securities Inc. ("Marco Polo").
1. ARSSBL or its Affiliates may or may not have been beneficial owners of the securities mentioned in this report.
2. ARSSBL or its affiliates may have or not managed or co-managed a public offering of the securities mentioned in the report in the past 12 months.
3. ARSSBL or its affiliates may have or not received compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities in the past 12 months and do not expect
to receive compensation for investment banking services from the issuer of these securities within the next three months.
4. However, one or more of ARSSBL or its Affiliates may, from time to time, have a long or short position in any of the securities mentioned herein and may buy or sell those
securities or options thereon, either on their own account or on behalf of their clients.
5. ARSSBL or its Affiliates may or may not, to the extent permitted by law, act upon or use the above material or the conclusions stated above, or the research or analysis on
which they are based before the material is published to recipients and from time to time, provide investment banking, investment management or other services for or solicit to
seek to obtain investment banking, or other securities business from, any entity referred to in this report.
© 2024. This report is strictly confidential and is being furnished to you solely for your information. All material presented in this report, unless specifically indicated otherwise, is
under copyright to ARSSBL. None of the material, its content, or any copy of such material or content, may be altered in any way, transmitted, copied or reproduced (in whole or
in part) or redistributed in any form to any other party, without the prior express written permission of ARSSBL. All trademarks, service marks and logos used in this report are
trademarks or service marks or registered trademarks or service marks of ARSSBL or its affiliates, unless specifically mentioned otherwise.
As of the publication of this report, ARSSBL does not make a market in the subject securities.
Additional information on recommended securities/instruments is available on request.
Compliance officer-Deepak Kedia, email id - deepakkedia@rathi.com, Contact no. +91 22 6281 7000
Grievance officer-Madhu Jain-email id- grievance@rathi.com, Contact no. +91 22 6281 7191
ARSSBL registered address: Express Zone, A Wing, 9th Floor, Western Express Highway, Diagonally Opposite Oberoi Mall, Malad (E), Mumbai – 400097.
Tel No: +91 22 6281 7000 | Fax No: +91 22 4001 3770 | CIN: U67120MH1991PLC064106.

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