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The document outlines a project submission with 5 tasks: 1) Choosing a forecasting method, 2) Forecasting demand over 6 months, 3) Calculating forecast errors, 4) Calculating MAPE and bias, 5) Providing recommendations. Exponential smoothing was used to forecast smartphone, laptop, and smartwatch demand with results and errors shown in tables.

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shailesh.deshpande
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33 views5 pages

Project Sample Template

The document outlines a project submission with 5 tasks: 1) Choosing a forecasting method, 2) Forecasting demand over 6 months, 3) Calculating forecast errors, 4) Calculating MAPE and bias, 5) Providing recommendations. Exponential smoothing was used to forecast smartphone, laptop, and smartwatch demand with results and errors shown in tables.

Uploaded by

shailesh.deshpande
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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PROJECT SUBMISSION

Task 1
 Method of forecasting: For short-term forecasting, I would utilize the simple exponential smoothing
method. This method is suitable for short-term forecasts and is capable of capturing recent trends and
changes in demand due to its responsiveness to recent data
 Justification for the choice of method: The assumption made is that recent sales data has more relevance
in predicting future demand compared to older data, given the sensitivity of the provided data to recent
changes.

Task 2
The formula used for forecasting demand: Ft=α×Dt+(1−α)×Ft−1

● The demand forecast for the next six months is shown in the table below

Month Smartphones (Forecast) Laptops (Forecast) Smartwatches (Forecast)

Jan 2300 1150 380

Feb 2090 1051 359

Mar 2003 1005 347

Apr 1972 979 342

May 1890 940 332


Jun 1923 958 337

Task 3
The formula used for calculating forecast errors: Forecast Error=Actual Demand−Forecasted Demand
● The forecast errors for the six months is shown in the table below

Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan -800 -350 -80

Feb -490 -231 -49

Mar -203 -105 -27

Apr -72 -59 -12

May -190 -90 -22

Jun 77 42 13

Task 4
● The formula for calculating MAPE: Mean absolute percentage error (MAPE) is calculated as the average of
the absolute percentage errors for each forecasted period. Bias is calculated as the average forecast error.
● MAPE for all product categories for the six months:

Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan 53.33% 43.75% 26.67%

Feb 30.63% 28.05% 15.81%

Mar 11.28% 11.67% 8.44%

Apr 3.79% 6.41% 3.64%

May 11.18% 10.59% 7.10%

Jun 3.85% 4.20% 3.71%

● The formula for calculating Bias: n1∑i=1n(Ai−Fi)


● Bias for all product categories for the six months:

Month Smartphones Laptops Smartwatches

Jan -793.33 -310 -70


Feb -323.33 -171 -39

Mar -203 -115 -27

Apr -105.33 -55.67 -12

May -123.33 -23.33 -5.33

Jun -23 -8 3

Task 5
● Recommendations:
○ Recommendation 1 + Justification
○ Recommendation 2 + Justification
○ Recommendation 3 + Justification

Smartphones: Implement a dynamic pricing strategy based on demand fluctuations to optimize inventory levels
and minimize stock outs.

Laptop: Improve supplier relationships and enhance communication to reduce lead times and ensure timely
delivery of components.

Smartwatches: Invest in predictive analytics and machine learning algorithms to better forecast demand patterns
and optimize inventory levels.
These recommendations aim to enhance supply chain agility, improve demand forecasting accuracy, and mitigate
the impact of demand fluctuations on inventory management.

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