BSL CLO Primer Barclays
BSL CLO Primer Barclays
BSL CLO Primer Barclays
Research
January 2021
This document is intended for institutional investors and is not subject to all of the independence and disclosure standards applicable to debt research reports
prepared for retail investors under U.S. FINRA Rule 2242. Barclays trades the securities covered in this report for its own account and on a discretionary basis on
behalf of certain clients. Such trading interests may be contrary to the recommendations offered in this report.
PLEASE SEE ANALYST CERTIFICATIONS AND IMPORTANT DISCLOSURES BEGINNING ON PAGE 96.
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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Overview
• Collateralized loan obligations (CLOs) are actively managed securitizations
backed primarily by a pool of 150-300 BB and single-B rated issuers’ senior
secured broadly syndicated loans and bonds.
• CLOs are primarily floating-rate products and are typically issued to take
advantage of the funding gap between asset yields (e.g. loan spreads) and
liability costs (e.g. CLO tranche spreads), or the “arbitrage”.
• The CLO vehicle itself is capitalized via the sale of debt tranches (typically rated
AAA through BB or single-B) and equity.
• CLO equity holders receive the residual after asset income is used to pay
tranches liabilities and deal fees.
• CLO managers, which include credit funds, asset managers and insurance firms,
receive fees for managing the portfolio. The pool of assets can usually be traded
for 4-5 years before the CLO begins to wind down and the tranches amortize.
• CLOs own more than half the global loan market, and while a majority of the
assets in the portfolio are not subject to mark-to-market factors, collateral quality
tests ensure the portfolio does not become too concentrated or risky.
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Overview
• Despite the negative headlines, CLOs have performed well over time, with no AAA or AA
tranches ever taking a loss. Per Moody’s, the 10-year cumulative impairment rate of CLO
tranches originally-rated AAA is 0.0% versus global CDOs (ex-CLOs) at 38.9%.
• Even after remaining resilient through the Global Financial Crisis (GFC), CLOs issued after
2009 tend to have less structural leverage, shorter reinvestment periods, more restrictions
on asset holdings, and greater focus on matching asset cash flows to liabilities.
• More importantly, CLOs today do not contain any market value triggers that would cause
forced selling. Thus, CLO managers are incentivized to hold assets over the long term,
rather than being forced to sell at the lows.
Note: Global corporate default rate data is the 10-year cumulative issuer-weighted global default rate from 1983-2019. CLO impairments by original rating, 10-year cumulative impairments over 1993-
2019. Source for all charts: Moody’s, Barclays Research
4 22 January 2021
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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Structure Overview
• CLOs are vehicles that invest in a diversified pool of mostly leveraged loans.
• The CLO itself is a bankruptcy-remote SPV, capitalized via the sale of debt tranches and equity.
• The CLO manager receives fees for managing the pool of assets.
• Income generated by the pool of assets is used to pay the tranche liabilities.
• For “risk retention compliance” (only US middle market and European CLOs), CLO managers
retain 5% of the deal through a vertical slice (smaller debt and equity pieces), horizontal slice
(larger equity piece) or “L-shaped” slice (mixture of the two).
CLO Manager
Management
Management Fees
Agreement
Asset
Portfolio SPV
Issuance Issuance Other Notes
Proceeds Proceeds [AA-B]
Equity
Source for all charts: Barclays Research
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Primary Types of CLOs
• CLOs are issued for two primary purposes: an arbitrage or balance sheet vehicle.
• Most CLOs are arbitrage vehicles, meaning they are issued to capture the difference in asset
income and liability costs and use structural leverage to enhance returns.
• Balance sheet CLOs are used as an additional, cheaper source of funding for specialty finance
companies or banks, where the underlying loans are typically self-originated and smaller in size.
• Arbitrage CLOs are issued by credit funds, money managers and insurance firms where the
underlying assets are purchased in the primary and secondary broadly syndicated markets.
• Arbitrage vehicles will typically have an initial reinvestment period of 4-5 years, whereas balance
sheet CLOs tend to be shorter or even static (e.g. no initial reinvestment period).
• Issued by credit funds, money managers, etc.
• Used to capture spread between assets and
Arbitrage liabilities
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CLO Issuance and Outstanding
US BSL CLO New Issue Supply European CLO New Issue Supply
140 New Issue US BSL CLO Supply ($bn) 40 New Issue European CLO Supply (€bn)
120 35
118 35
100 113 30 32
104 104 30
80 92 25 27
86 81
60 73 78 20 22
64 15 20
40 50 17
46 14 14
10
20 28 11
16 14 15 14 5 10
1 1 12 8 7
0 5 3 4 6 0 1 1 0
0 1
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
'00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20
Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Bloomberg, Refinitv, Kanerai, Barclays Research
8 22 January 2021
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Sample CLO Structure At New Issue
Size Rating Credit Discount Cash
Class Coupon WAL
($mn) (S&P/Fitch) Enhancement Margin (DM) Price
X 1.0 AAA/NR L + 60bp - 1.8 60bp 100
Order of Payments
Order of Losses
A 256.0 AAA/AAA L + 132bp 36.0% 6.2 132bp 100
B 48.0 AA/NR L + 185bp 24.0% 8.2 185bp 100
C 24.0 A/NR L + 285bp 18.0% 8.9 285bp 100
D 22.0 BBB-/NR L + 395bp 12.5% 9.5 395bp 100
E 18.0 BB-/NR L + 734bp 8.0% 10.0 825bp 94
Equity 33.1 NR/NR Residual N/A - - -
$402.1 L + 194bp
• Total deal size is typically around $500mn in US and €400mn in Europe, where the
Deal Size senior-rated tranche is ~60-65% of total
• Equity tranches are typically 9-10% of total notional (~9-10x levered)
• AAA tranches are typically rated by 2-3 agencies and 1-2 for lower-rated tranches
Ratings
• Higher-rated tranches can have the portfolio take more in losses before any
principal loss is taken (e.g. higher credit enhancement/subordination)
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Structural Enhancements
• For CLO tranches to receive a higher rating than the underlying assets (typically rated BB and
single-B), CLOs have several investor protections including cash-diverting tests, portfolio
diversification requirements, excess spread and credit enhancement.
• The Credit Enhancement (C/E) of a tranche is essentially how much the portfolio’s par value
(not market value) can decline before said CLO tranche begins taking a principal loss.
• Assuming average recovery rates decline to 60%, constant annual default rates would have to
reach nearly 7% before a new issue US BSL BB tranche is impaired (~9% for European BB).
• Even though historical cumulative credit losses have exceeded lower mezz C/E levels, manager
trading (minimizing par losses) and cash diversion tests have kept default rates low.
C/E vs. Historical Credit Losses Default Rate for US BSL BB Impairment
Credit Enhancement vs Credit Losses (%) Breakeven Constant Annual Default Rate (%)
12% 12%
10.2%
10% 10%
US BSL BB C/E 8.3%
8% US BSL B C/E 8% 6.9%
5.8%
6% 6% 5.1%
4% 4%
Average Loan Market Default Rate: 2.9%
2% 2%
0% 0%
'05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 70% 65% 60% 55% 50%
Annual Default % Trail 7yr Cumul. Loss (Recov. @ 60%) Recovery Rate
Assumptions: 20% constant prepayment rate, default recovery lag of 12 month, no reinvestment after reinvestment ends, assets reinvested at 99.5 price and L+325bp spread. Modeled to maturity
Credit enhancement based on sample of Q4 2020 vintage US BSL CLOs. Long-term annual default rate based on average of S&P/LSTA default rate from 1999-2020. Results only for illustrative
purposes. Source for all charts: Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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Global CLO Structural Comparison
Note: All data is median of Q4 2020 vintage deals, thus tranche thickness does not add to 100%. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Barclays Research
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CLO Pre- versus Post-GFC
• After the GFC, CLOs became more conservative with enhancement levels and asset limitations.
• Based on credit enhancement, what was once rated AA, would be rated around single-A today.
• Compared to pre-GFC CLOs (1.0), post-GFC deals (2.0) tend to have:
• less structural leverage (more credit enhancement)
• shorter reinvestment periods (less chance for par erosion)
• greater ability to manage CLO liabilities (deals can refi, reset or re-issue)
• shorter non-call periods (more investor flexibility)
• more restrictions on asset holdings (no structured finance assets)
• more focus on minimizing asset and liability maturity mismatch (cannot buy assets
maturing after CLO maturity)
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Waterfall Basics
• CLOs distribute interest and principal cash flows in accordance with a set of “waterfalls” on each
payment date (typically quarterly).
• Coverage tests are performed at different stages of the waterfall to divert cash flows if deal
performance has declined.
Sequentially, to:
Payment of senior expenses, accrued interest
1. Senior fees and exp.
2. Senior mgmt. fees
3. Note interest
Senior Notes*
Reinv. Div. test
Pass OC/IC tests
Fail
Principal payments
Fail Pass
50% 1. Sub mgmt. fee
Additional collateral* 2. Residual to Equity
50% Reinvest in
Senior
new Residual to Equity
1. Sub. mgmt. Fee Notes*
collateral
2. Residual to Equity
*Extent necessary to satisfy tests Source for all charts: Deal documents, Barclays Research
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CLO Life Cycle
Portfolio Par ($mn)
$450
Effective Date
$400
$350
Closing Date
$300
$250
$200 Pricing Date
$150
$100
Callable
$50
$0
Yr 0 Yr 1 Yr 2 Yr 3 Yr 4 Yr 5 Yr 6 Yr 7 Yr 8 Yr 9 Yr 10 Yr 11 Yr 12
Warehouse Ramp-up Reinvestment Post Reinvestment
• Warehouse (~3-9mo): An arranger/underwriter (i.e. an investment bank) typically provides financing to the collateral
manager to start purchasing assets several months before the Pricing Date of the CLO debt and equity.
• Ramp-up (~3-6mo): Period following the Closing Date (when deal documents are legally binding, warehouse is closed
and assets transferred into the SPV) during which the remainder of the portfolio’s assets are purchased by the manager.
• Reinvestment (~4-5yr): Commences on the Effective Date or when Target Par is reached. Manager is allowed to
reinvest asset repayments or sales proceeds into new collateral, subject to coverage tests and portfolio limits.
• Non-Call (~2yr): After the Non-call Period, the majority of the equity holders can direct the issuer to redeem the notes at
any time (referred to as optional redemption), either to fully call the deal, or perform a refi or reset.
• Post-Reinvestment: After the Reinvestment Period ends, collateral proceeds (with some exceptions) must be used to
redeem the CLO tranches sequentially, starting with the most senior tranche. CLOs are typically called 2-3 years after
the Reinvestment Period ends due to the exponential increase in the CLO’s debt cost (AAA tranche is largest tranche
with the lowest funding), decreasing equity distributions. A clean-up call option also becomes available once the portfolio
falls below ~15% of original balance.
Source for all charts: Deal documents, Barclays Research
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CLO Warehousing Period
• Warehouse financing, either in the form of a total return swap, or more commonly through an SPV, is often the first
aspect in a CLO’s lifecycle, completed well in advance of the debt and equity tranches being marketed to investors.
• Warehousing provides an opportunity for the CLO manager to patiently purchase assets in the primary market where
the assets are more likely to offer initial discounts (i.e. OIDs) compared with purchases in the secondary market.
• CLOs that price without using a warehouse (“print and sprint”) run the risk of primary loan supply being light during the
ramp-up phase, making asset accumulation difficult, but can be an attractive option after a sharp sell-off in loan prices
• Key features of warehouse financing:
• Maximum reinvestment period of typically 6-12 months, after which (if still in use) an amortisation period
begins. In practice, most CLOs price within six months of launching the warehouse.
• Senior lenders provide funding commitment for a significant majority (c.70-80%) of the pre-pricing warehouse
amount, and (in most cases) all of the remainder when the warehouse expands between pricing and closing. The
CLOs arranging bank is often a participant in the senior lender group.
• Subordinated lenders are subject to first losses on the collateral up to the entire amount of their investment.
The collateral manager is usually required to contribute at least 5% of deal balance, as warehouses are generally
considered to be securitisations, and thus subject to risk retention in European and US Middle Market CLOs.
• Portfolio profile tests are similar to priced CLOs, including limits on unsecured collateral, obligor concentration,
fixed rate securities, and CCC rated assets, among others.
• Senior mark-to-market ratio test (MV of the portfolio divided by the amount of senior funding outstanding),
where a drop below a minimum threshold triggers a Drawstop Event, preventing the manager from drawing down
additional funding, halts reinvestment and causes the amortisation period to start.
• However, only in a minority of warehouses are there actual market-value triggers that would cause the
warehouse to default and technically be forced to liquidate.
• Similar to senior noteholders in priced CLOs, senior lenders are well insulated from losses, and
negotiations to sell the pool via an auction or even hold the pool of loans on the arranger’s balance sheet
can keep the assets from being liquidated.
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Ramp-up and Reinvestment Period
• To close a warehouse, the facility can either pay-down through structured amortization, be
liquidated, or be taken out by pricing the portfolio into a CLO.
• Once the CLO is priced, the deal then shifts into the Ramp-up Period since portfolios are often
not fully ramped at pricing (contains typically half or less of the final planned assets).
• This is where the CLO manager purchases additional assets in the primary and secondary loan
market to fill up the remainder of the CLO’s portfolio.
• When the value of the portfolio reaches the pre-defined Target Par Amount, the deal becomes
Effective and the Reinvestment Period begins.
• Portfolio tests become active at this point, where the deal must be in compliance with the
collateral quality and coverage tests and concentration limitations to continue trading, or if failing,
the test must be maintained or improved for future trades.
• During the Reinvestment Period (c.4-5 years), the manager actively reinvests funds.
• Typically, the manager is allowed to trade in and out of positions on a discretionary basis, up to a
limit of 20-30% each year, with more flexibility to reinvest proceeds from “Credit Improved” (e.g.
improved financials, price or rating since purchase) and “Credit Risk” asset sales.
• Larger portfolio reallocations can also be done via a “Trading Plan”, where a number of trades
are grouped together, but they still have to abide by portfolio tests.
• The Reinvestment Period can end early, though, should the manager decide further reinvestment
would not be beneficial or if certain CLO tranche ratings are downgraded (“Restricted Trading
Condition”).
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Non-Call Period
• After the Non-call Period, equity holders can vote to:
• Call - Where the assets are sold, CLO liabilities are paid down and equity holders get the rest.
Why? Equity holder thinks PV of future cash flows < value that can be realized today
• Refinance - Where tranches (all or individual tranches) can have their coupons reduced and WAL
test potentially extended.
Why? Reduction in CLO liability costs increases equity distributions
• Reset - Where the reinvestment period is extended, documents can be amended, assets can be
swapped, equity can be injected and coupons are reset close to new issue levels.
Why? Allows reinvestment to continue without the time and cost associated with calling a deal and
rolling the assets into a new CLO structure
Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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Post Reinvestment Period
• Despite the name, most CLOs still allow the manager to reinvest specific collateral proceeds
(unscheduled principal payments, Credit Risk sales) in the Post Reinvestment Period.
• This is subject to meeting certain performance and asset criteria, though, that are described in the
deal’s documentation (e.g. new asset must have same or better rating, maturity must be same or
shorter, etc.).
• Differences in deal language, structure, manager strategy and portfolio construction lead to different
levels of post reinvestment activity. Thus, deal amortization speeds tend to vary, though the WAL test,
which generally declines over time, tends to be the largest constraint to reinvestment in most deals.
• Proceeds must still be used to pay down the liabilities before the final maturity date, though, otherwise
an Event of Default would occur.
80% 80%
60% 60%
Still in Still in
40% Reinv. 40%
Reinv.
Months
Past 20% 20%
Out of Months Past Out of
Reinv.
Reinv. Reinv. Reinv.
0% 0%
-36 -24 -12 0 -36 -24 -12 0
Active Deals Static Deals Active Deals Static Deals
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Events of Default
• CLO documents have event of default (EOD) stipulations that protect noteholders from
severe portfolio underperformance and breach of manager duties.
• Events of Default are difficult to achieve, with typical requirements being:
• missed interest on AAA/AA-rated tranches
• non-payment of principal at maturity
• the senior OC tranche ratio falls below ~102.5%
• issuer insolvency
• manager breach of duty
• For the senior OC ratio to fall to such a low level, the par value of the portfolio would have
to decline over 30%, based on typical starting overcollateralization tranche levels.
• In the rare event an EOD occurs, the reinvestment period terminates and the Controlling
Class (most senior tranche outstanding) can declare the notes immediately due and
payable.
• If all the CLO debt can be paid back in full, the trustee can direct the collateral to be
liquidated and pay down the tranches.
• Senior note holders could also waive an EOD, avoiding a forced liquidation event.
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Other Structural Variations – Combo Notes
• Combination notes, or combo notes, are created by combining CLO debt and equity into a
single structure, either inside or outside the original SPV.
• Combo notes allow investors to get exposure to a higher-yielding IG-rated asset by combining a
mix of higher-rated CLO tranches with CLO equity.
• The notes can be structured to meet an investor’s specific coupon and ratings target.
• Combo notes typically have a principal-only rating with a zero to low coupon, with underlying note
interest and equity distributions used for the combo note’s principal amortization.
• The combination of tranches introduces refinancing risk (when the underlying CLO tranches are
repaid and refinanced) and ramp risk (not acquiring the planned portfolio profile or having to
amortize earlier than expected).
• Refi risk can be mitigated by having the combo note hold a controlling vote of the equity tranche,
and specific document stipulations to prevent a refinancing unless certain conditions are met.
• US insurers have traditionally been the primary buyers of combo notes, which receive a NAIC 2
designation (lower risk capital required), despite packaging equity exposure that would otherwise
be mapped to a NAIC 6.
• However, starting in 2021, the NAIC will require insurers to apply for an NAIC designation for
combo note holdings, instead of being able to use a designation that relies on an assigned rating
agency rating (existing holdings will not be grandfathered-in).
• As a result, this may change the attractive relative value perspective of CLO combo notes for US
insurers.
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Combo Note Example
Combo notes are created by combining CLO debt and equity into a single structure,
allowing investors to get exposure to a higher yielding, investment-grade rated asset
Note: Percentages not shown to scale. Source for all charts: KBRA, Barclays Research
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Other Structural Variations – Class X Notes
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Other Structural Variations – MASCOTs
• A Modifiable and Splittable or Combinable Tranche (MASCOT) can be split into an
interest-only (IO) note and principal and interest (P&I) note.
• Similar to mechanics in the mortgage market, MASCOTs provide optionality to CLO
investors based on their view of future spread movements.
• As spreads widen, the likelihood that the CLO tranches will be refinanced decreases,
increasing the value of the IO notes. Owning the IO piece is essentially being short
material CLO spread tightening.
• However, the P&I note should appreciate given spread tightening.
MASCOT Example
• An example of a $50mn
AA-rated tranche that pays
L+185bp
• Different combinations of
IO and P&I notes can be
constructed, as outlined in
deal documents
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Other Structural Variations – AMRs
• An Applicable Margin Reset (AMR) is a method to reduce the inefficiencies and costs
of a traditional CLO tranche refinancing.
• Post non-call period, the AMR allows for a reset of the coupon of the AMR-applicable
tranches through a Dutch auction (e.g. coupon reduced until buyer found).
• The lowest coupon for which bids fully account for the principal balance of the tranche
will become the new coupon for the AMR-applicable tranche, subject to a “cap margin”.
• The failure of one tranche auction does not affect the success or failure of another.
• The auction initiation process is deal-dependent (automatically or through majority of
equity holder and/or manger) and occurs through an AMR auction service provider.
• An AMR does not require the cost (paid by equity holders) and time associated with
traditional refinancing process.
• Different from a typical “repricing”, if an AMR auction is successful, the coupon of the
AMR-applicable tranches automatically resets and no consent is required from holders
of those tranches.
• The first successful AMR auction took place in January 2020 for TCW 2019-1 CLO.
LCD reports coupons for the AAA through BB tranches were lowered, with the AAA
coupon being lowered from 144bp to 107bp, below the “margin cap” of 115bp.
• KopenTech notes there are $5bn+ of deals with the AMR functionality currently.
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Other Structural Variations – Hybrids
• There has been an increase in deals allowing for more flexibility in asset holdings (e.g. Hybrids).
• High CCC deals typically allow managers to hold up to 50% of CCC assets before being penalized,
above the 7.5% soft limit for BSL deals, creating a more distress-focused vehicle.
• CBOs (or Collateralized Bond Obligations) have large bond buckets (versus 5% limits in recent BSL
deals) and higher CCC buckets (15-17.5%). However, utilization of bonds greatly differs by manager.
• C/E is higher (e.g. lower equity leverage) for hybrids and they tend to price wider versus BSL deals due
to the increased risk of losses in the underlying collateral, thus making the initial equity arb challenging.
• As a result, less than $3bn of high CCC deals have been issued since the GFC, whereas more than
$14bn of CBOs have priced. The bifurcation is likely due to the more opportunistic trading nature of
CBOs, with much more flexibility to trade and build par than typical BSL deals.
For more detail, see “Trying to Bond in a Loan-ly World”, 14 February 2020. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
25 22 January 2021
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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Portfolio Tests
• There are a series of tests and criteria to ensure assets purchased and held in the portfolio are
in compliance with the CLO documents:
• Eligibility Criteria – Characteristics each new asset must have to enter the CLO.
• Portfolio Profile Tests (PPT) – Portfolio-level minimum and maximum concentration
limits generally are meant to guarantee the minimum diversity and quality of the portfolio.
If a PPT is failing, the manager must maintain or improve the test to continue trading.
• Collateral Quality Tests (CQT) – Set of minimum and maximum tests to ensure portfolio
is balanced with respect to spread, rating, recovery rating, diversity and recovery ratings.
If a CQT is failing, the manager must maintain or improve the test to continue trading.
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Eligibility Criteria
• The CLO’s assets must meet certain European CLO Eligibility Criteria Example
Eligibility Criteria at the time it is added to
the collateral portfolio. Criteria
• Eligibility criteria usually refer to general Senior Secured Loan, a Senior Secured Bond, an Unsecured Senior
Loan, an Unsecured Senior Bond, a Mezzanine Obligation, a Second
features of the respective asset. Lien Loan, a Corporate Rescue Loan, or a High Yield Bond
Denominated in Euro; or denominated in a Qualifying Currency other
• For example, they define whether the CLO than Euro and no later than the settlement date of the acquisition
is allowed to only invest in loans, or Not a Defaulted Obligation or a Credit Impaired Obligation
whether the CLO manager is also free to It has a Moody’s Rating of "Caa3“ or higher or a Fitch Rating of
"CCC-“ or higher
buy bonds. Not a Structured Finance Security, letter of credit or a Synthetic
Security
• If it is discovered that the eligibility criteria
Not a Zero Coupon Security
were not met at the time of purchase (and Not a debt obligation that pays scheduled interest less frequently
the collateral manager acquired the asset than annually
despite ineligibility), the collateral manager Not a Project Finance Loan
Not a Deferring Security
must sell the asset immediately.
Not a Step-Down Coupon Security
• The criteria will also typically note whether Not an obligation for which the total potential indebtedness of the
the CLO must comply with negative Obligor(s) thereof under all underlying instruments governing such
Obligors' indebtedness has an aggregate principal amount of less
screening ESG language as described than EUR 200,000,000
later in the deal document. Shall have been acquired by the Issuer for a purchase price of not
less than 60% of the par value thereof, unless such obligation is a
Swapped Non-Discount Obligation
Not an Equity Security, including any obligation convertible into an
Equity Security
Not an ESG Excluded Obligation
Note: Representative 2020 vintage European CLO. Source for all charts: Deal documents, Barclays Research
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Portfolio Profile Tests
• The Portfolio Profile Tests (PPTs) or US BSL CLO Portfolio Tests Example
Concentration Limits define the minimum
and/or maximum asset exposures Test Limit
permitted, acting as parameters governing Senior Secured Loans, Cash and Eligible
Min. 90%
the CLO manager’s investment style. Investments
Max. 10%
• For example, this example deal requires at Second Lien, Unsecured Loans and Bonds
[Max 5% of Bonds]
least 90% of collateral in the CLO to be Single Obligor
Max. 1.5%
[Top 3 - 2.0%]
invested in 1st lien senior secured loans.
CCC/Caa Collateral Obligations Max. 7.5%
• This deal can also purchase HY bonds, Interest Paid Less Frequently than
Max. 5%
with a maximum limit of 5%. Quarterly
DIP Loans Max. 7.5%
• If a test is failing, the CLO manager must Delayed Drawdown/Revolvers Max. 10%
generally maintain or improve the test to Moody’s Rating derived from S&P Rating Max. 10%
continue trading. Single Industry
Max. 10%
[Top 2 -12%]
Cov-Lite Loans Max. 60%
Fixed Rate Obligations Max. 5%
Step-Up Obligations Max. 5%
Long-Dated Obligation Max. 2%
Bridge Loans Max. 0%
Discount Obligations Max. 20%
Obligor with Total Indebtedness <$400mn
Max. 5%
but >=$350mn
Note: Representative 2020 vintage US BSL CLO. Source for all charts: Deal documents, Barclays Research
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Collateral Quality Tests
• Collateral Quality Tests (CQTs) provide a set of control measures for managers to actively trade their
portfolios against, and prevent CLO portfolios from becoming too concentrated or risky.
• Min. Diversity Score (DS) test: Measures collateral concentration and correlation of underlying issuers
and industries. Attempts to ensure portfolio is relatively diversified across holdings.
• Higher diversity score = more diverse collateral
• Max. Weighted Average Rating Factor (WARF) test: Weighted average of the underlying assets’ default
probability ratings, which are typically based on Corporate Family Ratings and converted into Rating
Factors. Assets with ratings on Negative or Positive Watch can also be notched down/up one rating when
calculating WARF. Attempts to restrict portfolio from becoming too concentrated in lower-rated assets.
• Higher portfolio WARF = lower-rated collateral
Note: Rating Factor is based on Moody’s idealized default rate for a rating over a 10 year time-horizon, multiplied by 10,000. Source for all charts: Moody’s, Barclays Research
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Collateral Quality Tests
• Min. Weighted Average Spread (WAS) test: Weighted average nominal spread of the underlying floating-rate
assets. Attempts to ensure asset interest is sufficient to pay interest on CLO liabilities.
• Lower WAS = lower asset interest income
• Min. Weighted Average Recovery Rate (WARR) test: Weighted average recovery rate assigned to the
underlying assets, which tends to be more conservative than historical recoveries. Attempts to ensure manager
invests in assets with a certain level of expected recoveries in case of default.
• Lower WARR = lower expected recoveries on the underlying assets
• Max. Weighted Average Life (WAL) test: Weighted average remaining life of the collateral pool, not assuming
any voluntary prepayments (typically declines over time). Attempts to ensure deal amortizes over time and does
not become concentrated in longer dated assets as the deal gets closer to maturity.
• Higher WAL = longer average maturity of the collateral
WAL Tests Become Most Constraining After The Reinvestment Period Ends
WAL Test Cushion (Yrs)
2.0
1.0
-1.0
-2.0
-3.0
-36 -24 -12 0 12 24
US Europe
Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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Collateral Quality Tests
• Unlike PPTs, which set strict minimums or maximums of the type of assets held by the CLO, CQTs are
moving targets based on a matrix to provide flexibility for CLO managers to trade the portfolio based
on evolving market conditions.
• Each matrix is a three-way combination grid of the criteria. For example, in a Moody’s matrix, the
combination of the current min. Diversity Score and min. WAS set the portfolio’s maximum WARF.
• Different CQTs can be used depending on the rating agency used for a deal (e.g. Fitch WARF).
• European CLO WARRs tend to be smaller versus US CLOs since European CLOs allow for more
subordinated assets such as a large bucket for bonds.
• Generally, if a deal is failing a CQT(s), the manager can continue to trade the portfolio, but must
maintain or improve the failing CQT(s) on future trades until passing again.
Source for all charts: Deal documents, Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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Coverage Tests
• Coverage tests typically include an Overcollateralization (OC) and Interest Coverage (IC) test for
most tranches.
• If a tranche’s coverage tests fails, interest that would have been paid to tranches more junior are
diverted to redeem the senior notes sequentially until the coverage tests pass again.
• CLOs may also have an Interest Diversion (ID) test (also known as Reinvestment Test), where
cash is used to purchase more collateral instead of amortizing the CLO notes.
• The ID test is set just above the lowest tranche OC test, meaning the ID test will trip first. When it
trips, ~50% of cash that would have gone to equity is instead used to purchase more collateral.
• Actual calculations are deal-dependent and can be found in the CLO deal documentation.
Minimum OC
Equity gets
CLO Collateral
Adjusted Test Passed
debt Collateral
Portfolio
residual
Portfolio
Minimum OC
Equity gets
nothing until
Collateral
CLO
Adjusted Test Failed
Portfolio
debt
Collateral coverage test
Portfolio is cured
Source for all charts: Barclays Research
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OC Test Haircuts
• The OC numerator holds most assets at par for calculations, but riskier assets are “haircut”.
• Typical OC haircuts can include:
• CCC/Caa assets above 7.5% → excess over 7.5% held at market value (excludes def.)
• Defaulted asset → held at lower of market value and assigned recovery value
• Asset bought below ~80% → held at purchase price
• Equity received from reorg → held at zero
• Asset maturing after CLO maturity → held at lower of market value and ~70%
• We estimate for a new deal, CCC exposure would have to rise to the mid-teens for the OC test
on the junior most tranche to fail – but lower if defaults and par losses also increase.
*Assumes assets purchased above $80. Source for all charts: Deal documents, Barclays Research
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OC Test Example
Scenario #1 Scenario #2 Scenario #3
Lowest OC Test Cushion
(ex. BB tranche) +389bp +47bp -2bp
Interest Diversion Test
Cushion +339bp -3bp -52bp
CCC Assets % 2.4% 10.0% 10.6%
Defaulted Assets % 0.2% 4.0% 4.3%
Snr. Mgmt. Fee Snr. Mgmt. Fee AAA Snr. Mgmt. Fee
Principal
AAA Interest AAA Interest AAA Interest
Note: Assumes CCC and defaulted assets held at $50. Source for all charts: Deal documents, Barclays Research
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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Overview
Leveraged loans are the main source of CLO collateral, making up most collateral pools for US CLOs and
~85% of European CLO collateral pools
Financial Covenants Mostly incurrence now (cov-lite) Incurrence only Incurrence only
Security: Secured by assets of the Issuer Secured by assets of the Issuer Unsecured
Historical Recovery
~67% for 1st lien, ~33% for 2nd lien ~55% ~38%
Rates:
Larger facilities publicly rated,
Rating: smaller have private/shadow Publically rated Publically rated
ratings
Note: Recoveries are average issuer-weighted recoveries from 1983-2019. Source for all charts: Moody’s, Barclays Research
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Broadly Syndicated Leveraged Loans
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CLO Industry Exposure
• Industry exposure in CLOs tends to closely match the overall loan indices.
• In the US, this is the S&P/LSTA Leveraged Loan Index (LLI – BBG:SPBDALB Index)
• In Europe, this is the European Leveraged Loan Index (ELLI – BBG:SPBDELB Index)
Top US BSL CLO Industry Exposure Top European CLO Industry Exposure
Median CLO Median CLO
Industry Industry
Exposure Exposure
1 Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 10.3% 1 Healthcare & Pharmaceuticals 14.9%
2 High Tech 10.0% 2 Services: Business 8.1%
3 Banking, Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 8.6% 3 Chemicals, Plastics & Rubber 8.0%
4 Services: Business 8.4% 4 High Tech 7.5%
5 Telecommunications 5.5% 5 Telecommunications 6.1%
6 Media: Broadcasting & Subscription 5.5% 6 Hotels, Gaming & Leisure 5.9%
7 Hotels, Gaming & Leisure 5.1% 7 Banking, Finance, Insurance & Real Estate 5.0%
8 Chemicals, Plastics & Rubber 4.0% 8 Beverage, Food & Tobacco 4.6%
9 Services: Consumer 3.7% 9 Construction & Building 4.5%
10 Construction & Building 3.4% 10 Retail 4.4%
11 Beverage, Food & Tobacco 3.3% 11 Services: Consumer 4.4%
12 Capital Equipment 3.2% 12 Capital Equipment 4.0%
13 Automotive 2.9% 13 Media: Broadcasting & Subscription 3.2%
14 Containers, Packaging & Glass 2.9% 14 Automotive 2.7%
15 Aerospace & Defense 2.6% 15 Containers, Packaging & Glass 2.5%
Note: Data as of January 2021. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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CLO Issuer Exposure
• CLOs hold 100-200+ issuers, with positions rarely making up more than 1-2%
• Leveraged loans are issued by commonly known companies like Dell or Ziggo
Top US BSL CLO Issuer Exposure Top European CLO Issuer Exposure
Total Bal. Median % Total Bal. Median %
Issuer in CLOs in Deals Issuer in CLOs in Deals
($mm) with Exp. (€mm) with Exp.
1 CenturyLink 2,997 0.60% 1 Flora Food Group 1,377 1.13%
2 Dell Technologies 2,622 0.55% 2 EG Group Limited 1,257 1.13%
3 Berry Plastics Group 2,516 0.48% 3 Nidda Healthcare Holding 1,236 0.99%
4 Starfruit Finco B.V. 2,500 0.50% 4 Lorca Finco 1,167 1.00%
5 Panther BF Aggregator 2 LP 2,434 0.49% 5 Springer Science & Business 1,143 1.14%
6 Bass Pro Group 2,421 0.58% 6 Ziggo 1,142 1.01%
7 Scientific Games 2,346 0.51% 7 ION Trading Technologies 1,129 1.09%
8 Zayo Group 2,326 0.47% 8 Ceva Sante Animale 1,102 0.91%
9 TransDigm 2,212 0.44% 9 Action Holdings 1,073 1.02%
10 Envision Healthcare 2,167 0.50% 10 Panther BF Aggregator 2 LP 997 0.92%
11 Diamond Sports Group 2,153 0.50% 11 Auris Luxembourg III 995 0.93%
12 Brookfield WEC Holdings 2,117 0.50% 12 Starfruit Finco B.V. 976 0.82%
13 RegionalCare Hospital Partners 2,090 0.53% 13 Ahlsell AB (publ) 974 0.83%
14 Caesars Resort Collection 2,073 0.49% 14 LSF10 XL Bidco SCA 914 0.96%
15 Virgin Media 1,970 0.45% 15 Financial & Risk US Holdings 898 1.00%
Note: Data as of January 2021. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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Loan Supply, Outstanding and Primary Buyers
0 0
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
LBO M&A Refi Recap Other LBO M&A Refi Recap Other
Note: New loan supply is ex-repricing. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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Loan Holder Base
US Loan Market Holder Base
2-4%
1-3%
2-4%
2020 65-70% 14-18% 7-9%
Change in
-1.0%
Unch
Unch
+3.5% +0.5% -3.5%
Mid Point
3-5%
1-3%
2-4%
2019 62-66% 13-18% 10-13%
CLOs & Warehouses (ex-Middle Market) Hedge Funds/TRS/Separate Accounts Loan Mutual Funds & ETFs
Non-Loan Mutual Funds/BDCs Insurance (P&C & Life) Other (Banks, etc.)
1-3%
0-1%
2020 52-53% 32-38% 8-12%
Change in
Unch
Unch
+6% -5% -1%
Mid Point
1-3%
0-1%
2019 46-47% 38-42% 9-13%
CLOs & Warehouses Asset Managers/Separate Accounts/Hedge Funds Banks & Other Insurance (P&C & Life) Retail Funds
For more detail, see “CLOs Continue to Take Demand Share from Retail,” 30 October 2020 and “Piecing Together Demand Through Supply,” 30 October 2020.
Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Lipper, BOE, ESMA, Fitch, Bloomberg, EPFR, HFR, Creditflux, Federal Reserve, Refinitiv, Kanerai, Bloomberg Barclays Indices, Barclays Research
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New Issue Loan Credit Stats
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Loan Market Stats
95 500
400 417
85 403
300
75
200
65 S&P/LSTA Lev. Loan Index (BBG:SPBDALB Index)
100
European Lev. Loan Index (BBG:SPBDELB Index)
55 0
Jan-04 Jan-06 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 1Q03 1Q05 1Q07 1Q09 1Q11 1Q13 1Q15 1Q17 1Q19
US Europe US Europe
60% 60%
25% 36%
40% 40%
13%
10% 20% 16%
20% 5% 7%
6% 2%
0% 8% 0% 4%
1%
Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-12 Jan-14 Jan-16 Jan-18 Jan-20
BBB+, BBB, BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC D NR BBB+, BBB, BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC D NR
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Loan Market Stats
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Asset Recovery Rates
• Historical 1st lien loan recovery rates have averaged slightly under 70% in the US and Europe.
• But we think recoveries will be lower going forward due to higher starting leverage, more secured
debt, less junior debt, and greater adjustments to EBITDA that have often not been realized.
• We believe that over a full cycle, recoveries could be as much as 10pts lower than in previous
cycles ($55-60).
• Recoveries can also be dispersed depending on the holder type – specifically CLOs.
• Since CLOs tend to sell down their positions as a company becomes stressed, due to CCC or
defaulted asset constraints, and CLOs typically cannot purchase bridge loans, defaulted assets,
or equity securities, CLOs are often not in control of the DIP process, and the consequences can
be detrimental for their recoveries.
For more detail, see “Recoveries: No One Size Fits All for Default Losses” 9 September 2020. Note: EU recoveries based on 1998-2017 data. Source for all charts: Moody’s, Barclays Research
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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CLO Manager Overview
• CLO managers, typically affiliates of asset managers, credit funds and insurers, are responsible for trading the
portfolio with the goal of maximising returns to CLO investors through asset selection.
• Managers not only must have exceptional credit picking skills, but also have the proficiency and resources to
manage the portfolio within a CLO structure.
• CLO investors closely monitor managers’ strategy, track record, years of experience and platform size, creating
market perception of a manager which can affect debt pricing for new deals.
• In order to understand a manager’s incentives when trading the portfolio, as well as longevity in a sustained
downturn, we encourage investors to analyze how a manager is compensated for a deal (do they own equity in
the deal?) and their dependence on management fees.
• CLO managers can resign or typically be removed for cause, which usually includes a willful violation of the
deal documents, an Event of Default, or an unresolved “Key Person” departure.
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US BSL CLO Managers
New Managers (Post-GFC) US BSL CLO Managers by Deal Balance
• New US BSL CLO managers in 2020: Manager # Bal. ($bn)
• Gulf Stream Asset Mgmt. 1 Credit Suisse Asset Mgmt. 42 25.7
• Jocassee Partners 2 GSO/Blackstone Debt Funds 40 22.0
• New Mountain Capital
3 CIFC Asset Mgmt. 38 21.8
• Silver Rock Mgmt.
4 Octagon Credit Investors 35 20.0
• AllianceBernstein
• PIMCO 5 Carlyle Investment Mgmt. 35 19.4
Note: Total count includes new managers. Source for all charts: Intex, LCD, Barclays Research
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European CLO Managers
New Managers (Post-GFC) European CLO Managers by Deal Balance
• New European CLO managers in 2020: Manager # Bal. (€bn)
• CBAM 1 GSO/Blackstone Debt Funds 22 8.9
• BlueBay Asset Mgmt. 2 PGIM 17 7.6
• AlbaCore Capital
3 CELF Investment Advisors 17 7.5
• Palmer Square
4 Investcorp Credit Mgmt. 17 6.9
• Bridgepoint Credit
5 KKR Credit Advisors 13 5.9
6 CVC Credit Partners Group 14 5.8
7 Alcentra 13 5.5
8 Credit Suisse Asset Mgmt. 11 5.1
9 Intermediate Capital Group 11 4.7
Total Manager Count 10 Barings 10 4.3
European CLO Manager Count (New Issue Only) 11 BlackRock Investment Mgmt. 10 4.1
60
50 12 Apollo Credit Mgmt. 10 4.0
50 43
40 13 Ares European Loan Mgmt. 9 3.8
40
29 31 14 Cairn Loan Investments 10 3.5
30 24
15 Oaktree Capital Mgmt. 8 2.8
20 17
10 16 Bain Capital Credit 7 2.7
7 6 8
10 4 4 5 17 Sculptor Europe Loan Mgmt. 6 2.5
0 18 Partners Group Mgmt. 6 2.4
2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
19 Five Arrows Managers 6 2.3
New 2.0 Manager Total Managers Issued
20 GLG Partners 6 2.3
Note: Total count includes new managers. Source for all charts: Intex, LCD, Barclays Research
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CLO Management Fees
• The CLO manager is paid a fee for managing the pool of assets:
• Senior Fee (~15bp) – aid near the top of the waterfall, typically after deal fees
• Subordinate Fee (~25-35bp) – Paid just before equity holders, so susceptible to shortfall if OC or
ID tests are failing. This fee accumulates until the test is passing again
• Incentive Fee – Paid when the equity IRR exceeds a specified return hurdle - typically 12% with
the initial price for IRR provided in deal documents. Once exceeded, typically 20% of the excess
cash that would go to equity holders instead goes to the manager. The fee is back-end loaded,
though, and usually only kicks in when the deal is called or in run-down
• Management fees have declined over time as a way to enhance the initial equity arb, though the data
does not capture any fee rebates or side letters.
US BSL CLO Total Management Fees European CLO Total Management Fees
100% 100%
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '19 Q1 '20 Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '19 Q1 '20
<40bp 40-50bp 50bp <40bp 40-50bp 50bp
Note: Data by new issue deal closing dates, includes senior and subordinate fee. Percentage based on deal count. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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CLO Manager Strategy Analysis – The Vision
• Each manager has their own strategy for managing the pool of loans and bonds. While a manager may
attempt to apply a similar strategy as used for similar funds at their firm, CLOs likely contain more
restrictive limits which need to be considered (CQTs, PPTs, OC tests, etc.).
• Thus, investors should understand what the manager’s strategic vision is for their CLOs, how the
manager is attempting to achieve such, and whether they have been successful in implementing
this strategy.
• At a higher level, some managers aim to be more conservative by buying low-spread, high-rated
assets (“debt friendly”), some take the opposite approach to generate high equity returns (“equity
friendly”), while others prefer a middle-of-the road approach.
• Besides speaking with the manager, investors can determine a manager’s high-level strategy by
comparing the average rating versus the average coupon of the underlying assets in their CLOs.
WARF vs WAS in US BSL CLOs WARF vs WAC in European CLOs
3,600 Moody's WARF More aggressive 3,700 Moody's WARF More
3,500 managers 3,600 aggressive
managers
3,400 3,500
3,300 3,400
3,200 3,300
3,100 3,200
3,000 3,100
2,900 3,000
2,800 2,900
2,700 More conservative 2,800 More conservative
managers Derived WAS managers Gross WAC
2,600 2,700
300 320 340 360 380 400 420 350 360 370 380 390 400 410 420
Note: Only managers with at least two deals in reinvestment. Gross WAC used for European CLOs to account for bond coupons. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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CLO Manager Strategy Analysis – The Implementation
• With an idea of what the high-level strategy is and how that compares versus other managers,
investors need to take their analysis a step further to determine how a manager is attempting to
achieve that strategic vision.
• Some managers may appear conservative (relatively low WARF/low WAS) but have very
different underlying risks in their portfolios versus managers with a similar strategy.
• In the example below, two deals with a similar WARF and WAS are shown, but the makeup of
each portfolio is quite different.
• The same analysis should be taken on other metrics as well, such as asset diversity and
liquidity, to identify potential tail risks in the portfolios.
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CLO Manager Strategy Analysis – The Results
• While a conservative or aggressive approach can imply a certain level of par build or equity
distributions, there is not a perfect correlation. Active manager trading, especially in a period of
volatility, debt execution and vintage effects can lead to a large dispersion in performance.
• Further, some manager strategies are better suited to certain credit environments versus others.
• As we saw in H1 20, managers that had fewer tail risks tended to outperform in OC test cushion
change – but the R-squared was still well below one.
• And while managers that had higher tails risks tended to see more losses, they also were more likely to
produce higher equity returns in the year prior.
• Thus, CLO investors need consider a manager’s strategy and performance over the long term, and
may want to contemplate diversifying their portfolios with exposure to different manager strategies.
Initial Positioning Doesn’t Fully Explain Performance Higher Tail Risk Produces Higher Equity Distributions
Jnr. OC Test Cushion Change in H1 ‘20 (bp) 25% '19 Median Equity Distributions (Ann.)
100
Starting Tail Risk Score
0
20%
-100
-200 15% R² = 0.18
-300
-400 10%
R² = 0.35
-500
Some more conservative managers 5%
-600 performed worse relative to those
less conservative Jan. '19 Relative Tail Risk Score
-700 0%
0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100%
For more detail, see “H1 Manager Performance Review: US BSL CLOs” 11 September 2020 and “H1 Manager Performance Review: European CLOs” 4 September 2020. Note: Managers with two
reinvesting deals only. Tail risk considers relative exposure to higher spread, lower rated, lower priced and lower liquid assets. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Markit, Barclays Research
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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CLO Tranche Investor Overview
Rating Investor Types Investor Priorities Investor Concerns
Asset Managers
CLO Managers • Credit loss avoidance • Collateral portfolio composition and
growing tail risks
Credit Funds • Residual cash flow
Equity maximization • Manager track record for maintaining
BDCs equity distributions
• Maintaining leverage & low
Insurers (e.g. combo notes) cost of debt • Manager risk retention
Risk Retention Vehicles
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CLO Ownership Breakdown
• Banks, insurers, asset managers and pension funds are the largest holders of CLO tranches.
• Most of these investors purchase tranches in the new issue market and typically hold them for
the life of the deal.
• Buying a new deal allows an investor to acquire larger allocations and negotiate document
stipulations, though most of time the initial portfolio is only hypothetical.
• Investors may also purchase CLO tranches in the secondary market, typically through a BWIC
process. The underlying portfolio of secondary opportunities can be quickly identified and priced,
but ticket sizes are typically smaller than primary opportunities.
• BWIC stands for “Bids Wanted in Competition”; an auction style process to buy and sell tranches
through dealers.
Global CLO Ownership Base Breakdown
9-12%
8-12%
5-10%
2020 30-34% 23-26% 14-17%
Change in
Unch
Unch
Mid Point -2% +1% +2% -1%
10-13%
8-12%
5-10%
2019 32-36% 22-25% 12-15%
Collateral
Banks Portfolio
Insurers Asset Mgrs/MF/SMA Pensions HF/CLO Mgrs Other
For more detail, see “Global Ownership Shifts on the Edges” 30 October 2020. Source: BOE, BOJ, Fed, FDIC, Lipper, HFR, NAIC, Fitch, Bloomberg, Company financials, Barclays Research
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CLO AAA-AA Tranche Profile
• CLO AAA tranches account for nearly 60% of the ratings stack, meaning the AAA buyer base is, by
definition, larger in size than all other tranches combined.
• Banks across the globe continue to be the largest holders of CLO tranches, where a vast majority of
their holdings are concentrated in AAA tranches (~60% of global CLO AAA tranches). Insurers’
participation in AAs is especially evident in the mix of floating versus fixed rate coupons.
• The default risk in AAA and AA tranches is considered to be very remote thanks to their significant
overcollateralization and position within the cash flow waterfall.
• Thus, these tranche buyers tend to focus less on the details of a CLO’s actual collateral portfolio and
more on factors such as manager reputation and track record, documentation strength (particularly
around post-reinvestment limitations), and expectations of secondary liquidity.
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CLO AAA-AA Tranche Profile
• Despite the protection afforded to senior rated CLO tranches through higher credit enhancement,
typically non-deferrable status (missed interest payment would cause an EOD) and an history of
strong performance (no AAA or AA tranches have taken a loss), AAA/AA CLO tranches have
remained wide versus IG corporates and other structured credit.
• We think this is likely due to:
• Illiquidity of CLO tranches versus IG and HY bonds
• Uncertainty in timing of cash flows post-reinvestment
• Inability for investors to underwrite the constantly changing portfolio of assets
• Steep-learning curve of CLO deal documentation and stipulation definitions
• Trust needed for CLO manager to follow document rules and avoid strategy drift
• A similar acronym as CDOs
• Headline risks
• Short non-call period (e.g. refi risk)
• Not qualify as a High Quality Liquid Asset for banks (not STS eligible) or Solvency Type I asset
• We think these general, and other, issues provide senior CLO tranche investors that understand
the product, and are not hampered by regulatory burdens, an opportunity to find attractive highly
rated floating-rate exposure.
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European CLO AAA Embedded Euribor Floor
• Most European CLO tranches have an embedded interest rate floor of zero (similar to the underlying
loans). Thus, tranches have effectively been paying fixed rates of interest since 2015 after 3month
Euribor fell below zero.
• CLO investors thus receive an embedded Euribor floor option in new issue deals. And with 3m Euribor
now well into negative territory for the foreseeable future, the value of that option, especially at the AAA
tranche level, has become quite attractive and can drive relative value considerations.
• Essentially, the longer and deeper the 3month Euribor forward curve moves, the more the embedded
option value increases. And the shorter the duration of a tranche, the higher the value of the option.
• Investors can monetize this additional benefit by simply holding the position over the long term, or can
sell the option to an option trading desk or simply sell the bonds in the secondary market.
-0.5 90 10
-0.7 60 0
Feb-21 Feb-23 Feb-25 Feb-27 Feb-29 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-21
3mo. Euribor EU CLO AAA Primary DM Est. AAA Floor Value (RHS)
Note: Estimated floor value based on most common reinvestment period length at each point in time. Source for all charts: Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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CLO AAA Tranche Relative Value
US BSL CLO AAA versus IG OAS US BSL CLO AAA versus IG OAS
Primary AAA DM and IG OAS Spread Diff. Primary AAA DM and IG OAS Spread Diff.
220 60 180 120
200 40 160 100
140 80
180 20
120 60
160 0 100 40
140 -20 80 20
60 0
120 -40
40 -20
100 -60 20 -40
80 -80 0 -60
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
AAA - IG OAS (RHS) US BSL CLO AAA US IG OAS AAA + Fl. Value - IG OAS (RHS) European CLO AAA EU IG OAS
US Versus European CLO AAA CLO AAA Spreads for Japanese Investors
Spread Diff. (bp) 100 JPY Hedged Primary CLO Spreads (bp)
180 Primary CLO Spreads (bp) 200
165
80
150 150
Median historical 60
135 difference is c.12bp
120 40 100
105
20
90 50
0
75
*EU spread includes floor value
60 -20 0
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
Basis (RHS) EU CLO AAA w/ Floor Hedged US BSL CLO AAA JPY Hedged US BSL CLO AAA JPY Hedged EU CLO AAA
Note: Generic CLO primary spreads. Embedded Euribor floor value due to new issue deals pricing with floors at zero, and with 3m Euribor still well below zero. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex,
Bloomberg, Barclays Research
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CLO AA Tranche Relative Value
US BSL CLO AA versus IG OAS European CLO AA versus IG OAS
Primary AA DM and IG OAS Spread Diff. Primary AA DM and IG OAS Spread Diff.
260 180 250 300
240 160
200 250
220 140
200 120 200
180 100 150
150
160 80
100
140 60 100
120 40 50 50
100 20
80 0 0 0
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
AA - IG OAS (RHS) US BSL CLO AA US IG OAS AA - IG OAS (RHS) European CLO AA EU IG OAS
Note: Generic CLO primary spreads. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
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CLO A-BBB Tranche Profile
• Similar to AAA/AA tranches, the risk of principal loss for single-A and BBB tranches is still relatively low
due to the high original credit enhancement. However, these tranches are traditionally structured to be
PIKable, meaning interest could defer if overcollateralization tests fail.
• While banks are traditionally not buyers of A/BBB CLO tranches, asset managers, pensions and credit
funds continue to find relative value at this part of the ratings stack.
• US insurers are some of the largest investors in this part of this stack, as the spread to NAIC capital
charge is attractive for single-A and above tranches. European insurers, however, incur higher capital
charges for CLO tranches under Solvency II.
• Downgrade risks are present as IG-constrained investors could be required to sell if tranches are
downgraded below IG, especially as new CLO BBB tranches are increasingly rated with a ‘BBB-’ rating.
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CLO A Tranche Relative Value
250 250
200 200
150 150
100 100
50 50
0 0
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
A-AAA A-AA A-AAA A-AA
Note: Generic CLO primary spreads. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
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CLO BBB Tranche Relative Value
US BSL CLO BBB versus HY OAS European CLO BBB versus HY OAS
Primary BBB DM and HY OAS Spread Diff. Primary BBB DM and HY OAS Spread Diff.
1,200 150 1,000 225
100 900
1,000 150
50 800
800 0 700
75
-50 600
600
-100 500
0
400 -150 400
-200 300 -75
200
-250 200
0 -300 100 -150
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
BBB - HY OAS (RHS) US BSL CLO BBB US HY OAS BBB - HY OAS (RHS) European CLO BBB EU HY OAS
US BSL CLO BBB versus B Loans European CLO BBB versus B Loans
Primary BBB DM and B Loans Spread Diff. Primary BBB DM and B Loans Spread Diff.
1,600 50 700 0
1,400
-50 600 -50
1,200
1,000 -150 500 -100
800
600 -250 400 -150
400
-350 300 -200
200
0 -450 200 -250
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
BBB - B Loans (RHS) US BSL CLO BBB US B Loans BBB - B Loans (RHS) European CLO BBB EU B Loans
Note: Generic CLO primary spreads. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
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CLO BB-B Tranche Profile
• Aside from CLO equity, junior CLO tranches (BB/B ratings) are the most exposed part of the capital stack to
declines in the underlying portfolio as these tranches have the lowest credit enhancement at issuance.
• Thus, these investors tend to scrutinize collateral portfolio composition more closely, with specific focus on tail
risks in the portfolio (e.g. exposure to below $80 assets, percentage of assets rated B3, etc.).
• Post-reinvestment amortization speed is also an important consideration because of its influence on pull-to-par.
Junior mezz is typically issued at a far greater discount than more senior tranches, giving it the best convexity
profile among CLO liabilities with built-in potential for price appreciation.
• However, this benefit comes at a cost of greater sensitivity to changes in assumptions and market conditions,
and thus price volatility. As a result, junior mezz tends to require a more tactical investment time horizon, which
corresponds fairly well to the investment style of dedicated structured credit investors.
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CLO BB Tranche Relative Value
US BSL CLO BB vs BBB and B Loans European CLO BB vs BBB and B Loans
Spread Difference
1,100 1,100 Spread Difference
900 900
700 700
500 500
300 300
100 100
-100 -100
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
BB-BBB BB CLO-B Loan BB-BBB BB CLO-B Loan
Note: Generic CLO primary spreads. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
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CLO Equity Profile
• CLO equity is essentially a non-recourse leveraged position on a pool of actively managed loans and bonds.
Equity holders are last in line to collect proceeds after debt holders and management fees are paid, but they
directly benefit from a manager that trades the portfolio and builds par (may also be able to flush trading gains).
• Risk retention and the fact that more managers are increasingly retaining equity in new deals (or at least a
majority), has shifted a large share of CLO equity ownership from credit funds to managers and retention funds.
• The potential upside in CLO equity comes with the risk of holding a first-loss piece – the increased potential
loss of investment (e.g. a negative IRR). Even so, the return profile of CLO equity (front-loaded excess cash
flows with a large principal pay-out at deal’s end) helps mitigate this risk.
• Thus, equity returns can be thought of as two cash flows: the interest-only (IO) stream, and the longer-term
principal-only (PO) stream, where equity NAV can be used as a proxy.
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CLO Equity Profile
US BSL CLO Equity Distributions (IO) European CLO Equity Distributions (IO)
Annualized Equity Distributions Annualized Equity Distributions
30% 30%
25% 25%
20% 20%
18.3% 18.6%
15% 15.6% 15% 15.2%
12.0% 12.7%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
Q1 '15 Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '19 Q1 '20 Q1 '15 Q1 '16 Q1 '17 Q1 '18 Q1 '19 Q1 '20
25th Pctle. Median 75th Pctle. 25th Pctle. Median 75th Pctle.
US BSL CLO Equity NAVs (PO) European CLO Equity NAVs (PO)
Median CLO Equity NAV Loan Index Bid $ 100 Median CLO Equity NAV Loan Index Bid $ 105
100 100
50 50 100
95
0 0 95
90
-50 -50 90
85
-100 -100 85
-150 80 -150 80
Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
US BSL CLO Equity NAV US LLI (RHS) European CLO Equity NAV ELLI (RHS)
Note: Only reinvesting deals included. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Markit, Bloomberg, Barclays Research
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CLO Equity Profile
• CLO equity distributions (IO) are driven primarily by the gap between a portfolio’s asset spread and the
CLO’s debt cost. This basis is generally referred to as the CLO equity “arb”, where a high “arb” is
considered an attractive time to purchase new issue CLO equity.
• Several other factors should be considered when thinking about returns for CLO equity, though,
including management and other deal fees, any fee sharing agreements, the CLO’s structural leverage,
potential reinvestment activity, the manager’s trading strategy, the future path of asset defaults and
recoveries, the ability to refi/reset tranches and more.
• These factors not only affect the IO stream, but also the long-term preservation of the portfolio’s equity
NAV (PO).
• As a result, the initial equity arb has little correlation with final CLO equity IRRs, especially as
evidenced by pre-GFC CLO equity returns.
New Issue CLO Equity Arb Initial Equity Arb vs Final Equity Returns
New Issue CLO Equity Arb (bp) 20% Median Final Equity IRR (%)
350
'07
300 '06
15%
'05 '11
250
'10
200 10%
'13 '06 '04 '12
150 '07
5% '05 '13
100 '04 '03
0%
50 '03 Initial Equity Arb (bp)
0 -5%
Jan-13 Jul-14 Jan-16 Jul-17 Jan-19 Jul-20 140 160 180 200 220 240 260 280
US BSL Europe US BSL Europe
For more detail, see “Dissecting and Forecasting the CLO Equity Arb,” 16 August 2019. Arb is ex-deal fees. IRR by deal vintage. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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CLO Equity Profile
• Thus it is important to consider a wide range of potential scenarios when modeling future
CLO equity returns.
• Even though typical market assumptions include using around a 20 CPR, 2 CDR and
~70% recovery on the underlying assets, CLO equity investors will typically have their own
detailed assumptions to model future returns.
• Views on asset defaults and recoveries will have large effects on returns, with a lower
initial equity purchase price providing an extra margin of safety.
• Reinvestment assumptions can also drive long-term differences in equity returns, including
prepayment speeds and spread/price reinvestment targets.
Equity is Most Susceptible to Portfolio Losses Reinvestment Activity Can Also Drive Returns
Modelled Equity IRR % 7.0% Quarterly Equity Distribution Total Cash Return 100%
20%
6.0%
80%
10% 5.0%
Reinvesting into lower 60%
4.0%
priced assets creates
0% 3.0% higher returns 40%
2.0%
20%
-10% Annual Defaults (CDR %) 1.0%
0.0% 0.5% 1.0% 1.5% 2.0% 2.5% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 0.0% 0%
$1.00 PP, 70 Recov $0.90 PP, 70 Recov $0.85 PP, 70 Recov Qtr 1 Qtr 5 Qtr 9 Qtr 13 Qtr 17 Qtr 21 Qtr 25 Qtr 29
$1.00 PP, 60 Recov $0.90 PP, 60 Recov $0.85 PP, 60 Recov $99.5 - Qtr $97.5 - Qtr $99.5 - TCR (RHS) $97.5 - TCR (RHS)
Note: Results only for illustrative purposes. Scenarios assume a 20% CPR, default recovery lag of 12 month, 50% of principal reinvestment after the reinvestment period ends and assets
reinvested at L+325bp and $99.5. Second scenario uses 2% CDR, 20% CPR, 70% recovery. ‘PP’ is purchase price. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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Risk Retention
• Risk retention rules aim to align the interests of the original CLO collateral portfolio underwriters with
those of CLO end investors. The rules were introduced as a way of reducing the agency problems
inherent in the “originate to distribute” model practiced by many securitization originators prior to the
2008-09 crisis. However, applicability of risk retention requirements are different across the globe.
• US
• Originally effective for all US CLOs issued after December 2016, a court case brought by the LSTA
reversed the requirement for “open-market” CLOs (a majority of CLOs) to abide by risk retention
requirements. However, balance sheet and middle market CLOs are still required to retain 5% of the
deal as these deals tend to hold a majority of self-originated assets.
• Europe
• European financial institutions are only able to invest in new securitizations if the originator/sponsor
retains at least 5% of the securitized exposure.
• European regulation places the burden of compliance on the issuers, but also the investors: banks
(via CRD IV/CRR), insurers (Solvency II), alternative investment funds (AIFMD) and mutual funds
(UCITS). Non-compliance leads to penalty capital charges.
• Japan
• The Japanese Financial Services Agency (FSA) published a risk retention regime for Japanese
financial institutions in March 2019. The rule essentially requires Japanese-based buyers to perform
an in-depth analysis on the securitization to ensure the collateral was “not inappropriately formed” or
be forced to hold increased capital (up to 1250%) against the investment.
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Risk Retention
• The “sponsor” route requires that the collateral manager provides the retention capital and requires an
authorization under MiFID in Europe.
• An “originator” route is an alternative that allows for external capital to get involved in the retention funding,
alleviating the burden on the collateral manager, but maintaining the alignment of the interests between the
original CLO collateral portfolio underwriters (the originator) with those of CLO end investors.
• An originator is a separately capitalized entity from the CLO manager. It “originates” what will ultimately become
CLO collateral by participating in leveraged loan and high yield bond primary syndications, and also by
purchasing such assets in the secondary market. After accumulating and holding the assets for some period of
time, the originator sells the assets to a newly created CLO in exchange for cash, and then invests in a vertical
(pro-rata) or horizontal (equity) strip of the CLO capital stack.
Collateral
Portfolio
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Risk Retention in Europe
• The use of the “originator” route increased after the June 2016 UK referendum, as in contrast to
the “sponsor” route, the originator vehicle does not need to be authorized under MiFID, which
means that the UK leaving the EU should not affect the risk retention compliance.
• In 2020, an estimated 86% of European CLOs were issued using the “originator” route, versus
82% in 2019 and 52% in 2018.
• Those European CLO managers that chose to continue using the “sponsor” route for risk retention
likely included language in the deal documents that allow for a switch of risk retention methods to
ensure compliance in a Brexit scenario.
• We estimate 24% of US CLOs issued in 2020 were compliant with EU risk retention requirements.
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Volcker Rule
• The Volcker rule prohibits US banks from having an “ownership interest” in “covered funds”, which
includes private equity, hedge fund stakes and previously, CLOs that contained bond buckets.
• Despite most US CLOs choosing not to include bond buckets prior to 2020, as banks are an important
source of demand at the AAA level, the European CLO market has continued to incorporate bond
buckets across most deals due to the relatively smaller size of the leveraged loan market in Europe.
• Compliance options:
• Loan securitisation: “Loan securitisations” are exempt from the definition of covered funds. In
order to qualify as a loan securitisation, the assets of the CLO must consist solely of loans, but as
of 1 October 2020, can also include a 5% bucket for certain debt securities.
• Rule 3a-7: The CLO can be structured in accordance with rule 3a-7 of the US Investment
Company Act of 1940 – this is also an explicit exemption, although in practice the associated
restrictions on collateral management are open to interpretation.
• Voting/Non-voting: Classes of CLO notes relevant to banks are divided into three types: 1) voting
notes; 2) non-voting exchangeable notes; and 3) non-voting notes. The lack of voting rights with
respect to manager removal avoids creating an “ownership interest” from a legal standpoint.
• Post-implementation of the rule, European CLOs have mostly used the “voting/non-voting” approach.
• Following the modification of the Volcker Rule in 2020, US banks may be able to purchase CLOs that
not only have 5% bond buckets, but also potentially large buckets of non-loan assets due to a new safe
harbor for certain senior debt interests.
• However, investor concerns, rating agency criteria and other regulatory/tax considerations are likely to
result in most CLOs continuing to primarily invest in senior secured leveraged loans.
For more detail, see “Recoveries: No One Size Fits All for Default Losses,” 11 September 2020, and “Trying to Bond in a Loan-ly World,” 14 February 2020.
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Reference Rate Replacement
• Most CLO documents now have language to prevent a “fixed rate” scenario when Libor ceases (last
quote available), but variation still exists on when to transition liabilities and what the new rate will be.
• The Ice Benchmark Association (IBA) noted in late 2020 that 1m and 3m Libor rates will continue to be
published until 30 June 2023, significantly lowering the probability that deals will fall back to using a
static rate, with a majority of those deals likely to be fixed or called by then.
• When the transition does occur, though, debt investors are unlikely to feel the impact, while equity
investors could bear the brunt of any mismatch in assets and liability rates or a lag in timing.
• European CLOs will be less impacted by the transition due to the minimal number of underlying assets
that pay based on US Libor and the relative ease of transition with regards to Euribor.
Basis Between Libor and SOFR Equity More at risk in a Rate Mismatch
3M Libor to SOFR Basis (bp) Est. Equity Yield Change When Libor is 50bp Above SOFR
150 3.0%
The basis peaked at
~144bp in March 2.0%
100
1.0%
50 0.0%
-1.0%
0
-2.0%
Liab. based on Libor Liab. based on SOFR
-50 -3.0%
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 CLO 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%
3M Libor - SOFR Assets: SOFR SOFR SOFR SOFR SOFR SOFR SOFR SOFR SOFR
For more detail, see “An Update on Libor Cessation,” 16 October 2020. About Euribor. EMMI. Source for all charts: Bloomberg, Fitch, Barclays Research
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European Bank Risk Weights
• The European Securitization Regulation (EUSR) brought along new capital charges for banks that, in general,
have resulted in higher capital charges.
• The regulation provided for one year of grandfathering for pre-2019 issuance to continue to operate under the
older risk weight. This ended on 1 January 2020, after which all securitization carried the new risk weights.
• We expect the higher risk weights to hinder trading desks from playing an active role in lower rated CLO
tranches, potentially lowering the opportunity for CLO investors to find cheaper attractive tranches in secondary.
• However, senior rated tranches remain attractive for European buyers.
• Even on a risk-weighted asset (RWA) basis, European CLO AAA tranches offer attractive return on capital
ratios for banks compared to other credit and structured products.
Capital Multiple (New to Old Risk Weights) Under External Ratings-Based Approach
Risk Weight Multiple Change
10.0x
8.0x
6.0x
4.0x
2.0x
0.0x
Collateral
AAA AA+ AA AA- A+ A A- BBB+ BBB BBB- BB+ BB BB- B+ B B- CCC
Portfolio
STS Senior STS Non-Senior Non-STS Senior Non-STS Non-Senior Non-granular (non-STS) Senior Non-granular (non-STS) Non-Senior
For more detail, see “Global Securitized Products Outlook 2020,” 6 December 2019. Source for all charts: EU Regulation 2017/2401, CRR, Barclays Research
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Table of Contents
• Overview
• Structure
• Portfolio Tests
• Underlying Collateral
• CLO Managers
• Tranche Profiles
• Regulation
• Historical Performance
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CLO Historical Performance
• CLOs have performed well over time, even during periods of extreme market volatility
and high loan downgrade and default rates
• Due to CLO investor protections such as cash-diverting tests, portfolio diversification
requirements, excess spread and credit enhancement, CLO tranche default rates
have remained low, even when compared to corporates at similar rating levels and
especially CDOs.
• We present data over two specific periods to show how CLOs have performed over
time:
• Pre-GFC period – analyzing 2003-2008 vintage deal performance during and
after the GFC
• COVID-19 period – analyzing all vintages’ performance over full year 2020
• We provide data on CLO defaults, fundamentals, ratings, prices, spreads and more
for each period.
• Individual deal performance can vary depending on deal vintage, manager activity,
structural attributes and document language.
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Pre-GFC CLO Performance
• S&P data show historical CLO tranche default rates are low, even for pre-GFC vintage deals.
• S&P notes that general credit deterioration led to most of the defaults, with six of the US CLO
tranche defaults being caused specifically from market value tests (tests not found in current-day
CLOs).
• The one AA tranche to default in the US was due to the note’s interest payments being placed in
escrow by the trustee, but the tranche eventually repaid accrued interest and was paid in full.
• Defaults were low due to not only high credit enhancement and overcollateralization test
protections, but also because of the longer final maturity for CLOs (~12-13 years), allowing more
time for asset values to improve.
US CLO Tranche Defaults by Orig. Rating EU CLO Tranche Defaults by Orig. Rating
US CLOs European CLOs
Orig. Rating Tranches Defaults Default Rate Orig. Rating Tranches Defaults Default Rate
AAA 1,540 0 0.0% AAA 472 0 0.0%
AA 616 1 0.2% AA 225 0 0.0%
A 790 5 0.6% A 239 0 0.0%
BBB 783 9 1.1% BBB 290 4 1.4%
BB 565 22 3.9% BB 205 17 8.3%
B 28 3 10.7% B 11 1 9.1%
Total 4,322 40 0.9% Total 1,442 22 1.5%
Note: Pre-GFC CLO tranches rated by S&P only. US data as of mid-2020. European data as of April 30, 2020. Source for all charts: S&P, Barclays Research
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CLO vs. CDO
• Moody’s data show CLO tranche impairment rates are even lower than corporates, and especially CDOs.
• Over the past 10 years, 0% of global CLO AAA tranches took a loss versus 39% for global CDOs (ex-CLOs).
• Lessons from the CDO era:
1 Avoid mark-to-market 2 Know the underlying 3 4 Understand the buyer
Minimize correlations
vehicles assets base
High embedded Holdings of synthetic Linking a portfolio to a CDOs, SIVs and asset-
leverage and market- securities and other single factor (i.e. backed commercial
value triggers caused securitized products subprime mortgages to paper created an
cascading effects as made it difficult to price housing prices) makes it artificial demand for
assets quickly fell in the pool and judge difficult to hedge securitized products
value downside risks performance of the (including CLOs)
underlying assets
Note: Corporate data is the 10-year cumulative issuer-weighted global corporate default rate from 1983-2019. CLO and CDO impairment and loss given default (LGD) rates by original rating and
based on 10-year cumulative data over 1993-2019. Impairments split by principal (outstanding principal write-down or loss >50bp of the tranche original balance or security carrying Ca or C rating,
even if not yet experienced an interest shortfall or principal write-down) and interest (outstanding interest shortfall >50bp of original tranche balance).
Source for all charts: Moody’s, Barclays Research
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Pre-GFC CLO Payment Stats
% of Deals Failing Jnr. Most OC Test (US BSL) % of Deals Failing Jnr. Most OC Test (EU)
% of Tranches Missing Scheduled Interest (US BSL) % of Tranches Missing Scheduled Interest (EU)
Missed Scheduled Interest % Missed Scheduled Interest %
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13
A BBB BB A BBB BB
Note: Scheduled interest data based on all tranches outstanding. Percentages based on count. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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Pre-GFC US BSL CLO Fundamentals
10% 6.00
8% 4.00
6% 2.00
4% 0.00
2% -2.00
0% -4.00
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13
25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. LLI 25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl.
Note: Only reinvesting US BSL CLOs issued between 2003-2008. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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Pre-GFC European CLO Fundamentals
2,400 6%
4%
2,200
2%
2,000 0%
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. 25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. LLI
10% 6.00
4.00
8%
2.00
6%
0.00
4%
-2.00
2% -4.00
0% -6.00
Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14
25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. LLI 25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl.
Note: Only reinvesting European CLOs issued between 2003-2008. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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Pre-GFC CLO Tranche Spread and Price History
6,000 10,000
5,000
8,000
4,000
6,000
3,000
4,000
2,000
1,000 2,000
0 0
Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-05 Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12
AAA AA A BBB BB AAA AA A BBB BB
80% 80%
60% 60%
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
Jan-06 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15
AAA AA A BBB AAA AA A BBB
Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Barclays Research
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Pre-GFC CLO Tranche Rating Actions
50% 50%
40% 40%
30% 30%
20% 20%
10% 10%
0% 0%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
CLO Downgrades Corporate Downgrades CLO Upgrades Corporate Upgrades
40% 40%
20% 20%
0% 0%
-20% -20%
-40% -40%
-60% -60%
-80% -80%
'01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19
Upgrades Downgrades* Upgrades Downgrades*
Note: *Tranche rating downgrade stats exclude defaults. Source for all charts: S&P
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Pre-GFC CLO Equity Performance
• Due to the sharp decline in asset ratings and prices, and increase in default rates, most CLOs
missed around two equity distributions in 2009, with only ~20% of deals not missing a payment.
• Despite this, distributions recovered, with 2006-07 vintage deals having the best performance.
• These vintages were able to lock in relatively cheap cost of liabilities, and mixed with a long
reinvestment period, where new asset spreads widened, coupons were amended higher (with
the covenant fee flowing to equity), and the fact that CLOs could buy discounted CLO mezz
tranches, most managers were able to increase distributions and build par.
• European CLO equity performed relatively worse than US CLO equity due to CCC buckets being
slightly higher for longer in Europe, with slightly lower CCC limitations (~5% versus 7.5% today),
lower asset recovery rates, as well as a double-dip default cycle in Europe.
Pre-GFC US BSL CLO Equity Distributions Pre-GFC European CLO Equity Distributions
Median Ann. Equity Distributions Median Ann. Equity Distributions
40% 30%
35% 25%
30%
20%
25%
15%
20%
15% 10%
10% 5%
5% 0%
0% H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H1 H1 H2 H1
Q1 '07 Q1 '08 Q1 '09 Q1 '10 Q1 '11 Q1 '12 Q1 '13 Q1 '14 Q1 '15 Q1 '16 '07 '07 '08 '09 '09 '10 '11 '11 '12 '13 '13 '14 '15 '15 '16
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007
Note: Median equity distribution by original vintage for all deals. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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CLO Equity Performance (Called Deals)
US BSL CLO Equity Total Cash Returns European CLO Equity Total Cash Returns
Median Total Cash Return Median Total Cash Return
300% 300%
50% 50%
0% 0%
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2010 2011 2012 2013 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2013
25th Pctle. Median 75th Pctle. 25th Pctle. Median 75th Pctle.
Note: Equity IRR assuming par purchase price for equity. Data presented by original deal vintage. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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COVID-19 CLO Performance
• The volatility caused by COVID-19 in 2020 affected all credit markets, including leveraged loans and CLOs.
Despite approximately one third of the loan market in the US and Europe being downgraded in 2020, though,
CLO tranches performed as advertised.
• Even the US Government Accountably Office (GAO) noted in December, “After the COVID-19 shock in March
2020, loans suffered record downgrades and increased defaults, but the highest-rated CLO securities remained
resilient. Although regulators monitoring the effects of the pandemic remain cautious, as of September 2020,
they had not found that leveraged lending presented significant threats to financial stability.”
• Due to the increase in loan downgrades and defaults, though, WARFs increased materially and OC test
cushions eroded, leading to some tranches missing scheduled interest payments in the US. This also resulted
in tranche rating downgrades, though, they were concentrated on mezz tranches (no AAAs affected).
• European CLOs fared better largely due to fewer relative tail risk in the loan market versus the US prior to
COVID-19.
US Loan Market Cumulative Downgrades EU Loan Market Cumulative Downgrades
Cumulative Number of Downgrades 120 Cumulative Number of Downgrades
700
600 100
500 80
400
60
300
40
200
100 20
0 0
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2018 2019 2020 2018 2019 2020
*Agencies Have Not Found Leveraged Lending to Significantly Threaten Stability but Remain Cautious Amid Pandemic. December 2020. GAO. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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Recent CLO Payment Stats
% of Deals Failing Jnr. Most OC Test (US BSL) % of Deals Failing Jnr. Most OC Test (European)
Jnr. Most OC Test Failure % Jnr. Most OC Test Failure %
25% 25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 Jan-20
All Reinvesting All Reinvesting
% of Tranches Missing Scheduled Interest (US BSL) % of Tranches Missing Scheduled Interest (EU)
Missed Scheduled Interest % Missed Scheduled Interest %
25% 25%
20% 20%
15% 15%
10% 10%
5% 5%
0% 0%
Q1 '18 Q3 '18 Q1 '19 Q3 '19 Q1 '20 Q3 '20 Q1 '18 Q3 '18 Q1 '19 Q3 '19 Q1 '20 Q3 '20
A BBB BB B Equity A BBB BB B Equity
Note: Scheduled interest data based on all tranches outstanding. Percentages based on count. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Barclays Research
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Recent US BSL CLO Fundamentals
3,400 12%
10%
3,200
8%
3,000
6%
2,800
4%
2,600 2%
2,400 0%
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20
25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. 25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. LLI
Note: Only reinvesting US BSL CLOs issued after 2010. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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Recent European CLO Fundamentals
3,400 12%
3,200 10%
8%
3,000
6%
2,800
4%
2,600
2%
2,400 0%
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20 Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19 Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20
25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. 25th Pctl. Median 75th Pctl. LLI
Note: Only reinvesting European CLOs issued after 2010. Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, S&P LCD, Barclays Research
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2020 CLO Spread and Price History
90 90
80 80
70 70
60 60
50 50
Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21
AAA AA A BBB BB B AAA AA A BBB BB B
Note: Tranche prices from sample of 2018 vintage reinvesting CLOs. Source for all charts: S&P LCD, Intex, Kanerai, Barclays Research
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2020 CLO Tranche Rating Actions
US BSL CLO Tranche Downgrade Severity European CLO Tranche Downgrade Severity
2020 US BSL Tranche Rating Notch Changes (Min., Max., Avg.) 2020 EU Tranche Rating Notch Changes (Min., Max., Avg.)
AA A BBB BB B AA A BBB BB B
0 0
Min. notch decline 0.0 Min. notch decline
-1 -1.0 -1 -1.0 -1.0 -1.1 -1.2
-1.3 -1.2
-1.6 -1.5
-2 -2
Average notch Average
-3 decline -3 notch decline Max. notch decline
-4 -4
-6 -6
Note: Ratings data based on all tranches outstanding. Percentages based on tranche count. Negative Watch by at least one agency. ‘Max. on Neg. Watch’ is based on month-end approximations.
Source for all charts: Kanerai, Intex, Bloomberg, S&P, Fitch, Moody’s, Barclays Research
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Analyst Certifications and Important Disclosures
Analyst Certification(s)
I, Geoffrey Horton, hereby certify (1) that the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect my personal views about any or all of the subject securities or issuers referred to in this research
report and (2) no part of my compensation was, is or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendations or views expressed in this research report.
Important Disclosures:
Barclays Research is produced by the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC and its affiliates (collectively and each individually, "Barclays").
All authors contributing to this research report are Research Analysts unless otherwise indicated. The publication date at the top of the report reflects the local time where the report was produced and
may differ from the release date provided in GMT.
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Important Disclosures (continued)
Underweight (UW):
For sectors rated against the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index, the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Credit Index, the Bloomberg Barclays EM Asia USD High Grade Credit Index or the
Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Corporate and Quasi-Sovereign Index, the analyst expects the six-month excess return of the sector to be less than the six-month excess return of the relevant index.
For sectors rated against the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index, the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped Credit Index excluding
Financials, the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield Finance Index or the Bloomberg Barclays EM Asia USD High Yield Corporate Credit Index, the analyst expects the six-month total return
of the sector to be less than the six-month total return of the relevant index.
Sector definitions:
Sectors in U.S. High Grade Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index and are rated against the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index.
Sectors in U.S. High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index and are rated against the Bloomberg Barclays
U.S. High Yield 2% Issuer Capped Credit Index.
Sectors in European High Grade Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Credit Index and are rated against the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European
Credit Index.
Sectors in Industrials and Utilities in European High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped Credit Index
excluding Financials and are rated against the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield 3% Issuer Capped Credit Index excluding Financials.
Sectors in Financials in European High Yield Research are defined using the sector definitions of the Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European High Yield Finance Index and are rated against the Bloomberg
Barclays Pan-European High Yield Finance Index.
Sectors in Asia High Grade Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Bloomberg Barclays EM Asia USD High Grade Credit Index.
Sectors in Asia High Yield Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Bloomberg Barclays EM Asia USD High Yield Corporate Credit Index.
Sectors in EEMEA and Latin America Research are defined on Barclays Live and are rated against the Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Corporate and Quasi Sovereign Index. These sectors may contain
both High Grade and High Yield issuers.
To view sector definitions and monthly sector returns for Asia, EEMEA and Latin America Research, go to https://live.barcap.com/go/research/EMSectorReturns on Barclays Live.
Explanation of the Barclays Research Corporate Credit Rating System
For all High Grade issuers covered in the US, Europe or Asia, and for all issuers in Latin America and EEMEA, the credit rating system is based on the analyst's view of the expected excess return over
a six-month period of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities* relative to the expected excess return of the relevant sector, as specified on the report.
Overweight (OW): The analyst expects the six-month excess return of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities to exceed the six-month expected excess return of the relevant sector.
Market Weight (MW): The analyst expects the six-month excess return of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities to be in line with the six-month expected excess return of the relevant
sector.
Underweight (UW): The analyst expects the six-month excess return of the issuer's index-eligible corporate debt securities to be less than the six-month expected excess return of the relevant sector.
Rating Suspended (RS): The rating has been suspended temporarily due to market events that make coverage impracticable or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain
circumstances including where the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Coverage Suspended (CS): Coverage of this issuer has been temporarily suspended.
Not Covered (NC): Barclays’ fundamental credit research team does not provide formal, continuous coverage of this issuer and has not assigned a rating to the issuer or its debt securities. Any
analysis, opinion or trade recommendation provided on a Not Covered issuer or its debt securities is valid only as of the publication date of this report and there should be no expectation that additional
reports relating to the Not Covered issuer or its debt securities will be published thereafter.
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Important Disclosures (continued)
For all High Yield issuers (excluding those covered in EEMEA or Latin America), the credit rating system is based on the analyst's view of the expected total returns over a six-month period of the
rated debt security relative to the expected total return of the relevant sector, as specified on the report.
Overweight (OW): The analyst expects the six-month total return of the debt security subject to this rating to exceed the six-month expected total return of the relevant sector.
Market Weight (MW): The analyst expects the six-month total return of the debt security subject to this rating to be in line with the six-month expected total return of the relevant sector.
Underweight (UW): The analyst expects the six-month total return of the rated debt security subject to this rating to be less than the six-month expected total return of the relevant sector.
Rating Suspended (RS): The rating has been suspended temporarily due to market events that make coverage impracticable or to comply with applicable regulations and/or firm policies in certain
circumstances including where the Investment Bank of Barclays Bank PLC is acting in an advisory capacity in a merger or strategic transaction involving the company.
Coverage Suspended (CS): Coverage of this issuer has been temporarily suspended.
Not Covered (NC): Barclays’ fundamental credit research team does not provide formal, continuous coverage of this issuer and has not assigned a rating to the issuer or its debt securities. Any
analysis, opinion or trade recommendation provided on a Not Covered issuer or its debt securities is valid only as of the publication date of this report and there should be no expectation that
additional reports relating to the Not Covered issuer or its debt securities will be published thereafter.
Where a recommendation is made at the issuer level, it does not apply to any sanctioned securities, where trading in such securities would be prohibited under applicable law, including sanctions
laws and regulations.
*In EEMEA and Latin America (and in certain other limited instances in other regions), analysts may occasionally rate issuers that are not part of the Bloomberg Barclays U.S. Credit Index, the
Bloomberg Barclays Pan-European Credit Index, the Bloomberg Barclays EM Asia USD High Grade Credit Index or Bloomberg Barclays EM USD Corporate and Quasi Sovereign Index. In such
cases the rating will reflect the analyst’s view of the expected excess return over a six-month period of the issuer’s corporate debt securities relative to the expected excess return of the relevant
sector, as specified on the report.
Distribution of ratings assigned by Barclays Corporate Credit Research at the issuer level:
27% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 55% of issuers with this rating category are investment banking
clients of the Firm; 77% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
49% have been assigned Market Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 60% of issuers with this rating category are investment banking
clients of the Firm; 83% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
24% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 64% of issuers with this rating category are investment banking
clients of the Firm; 87% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
Distribution of ratings assigned by Barclays Corporate Credit Research at the bond level:
30% have been assigned an Overweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Buy rating; 59% of bonds with this rating category are investment banking
clients of the Firm; 74% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
47% have been assigned Market Weight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Hold rating; 61% of bonds with this rating category are investment banking
clients of the Firm; 79% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
22% have been assigned an Underweight rating which, for purposes of mandatory regulatory disclosures, is classified as a Sell rating; 54% of bonds with this rating category are investment banking
clients of the Firm; 69% of the issuers with this rating have received financial services from the Firm.
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Important Disclosures (continued)
Types of investment recommendations produced by Barclays FICC Research:
In addition to any ratings assigned under Barclays’ formal rating systems, this publication may contain investment recommendations in the form of trade ideas, thematic screens, scorecards or
portfolio recommendations that have been produced by analysts in FICC Research. Any such investment recommendations produced by non-Credit Research teams shall remain open until they are
subsequently amended, rebalanced or closed in a future research report. Any such investment recommendations produced by the Credit Research teams are valid at current market conditions and
may not be otherwise relied upon.
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