Energy 249 (2022) 123628

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Energy
journal homepage: www.elsevier.com/locate/energy

Greenhouse gas life cycle analysis of China's fuel cell medium- and
heavy-duty trucks under segmented usage scenarios and vehicle types
Lei Ren a, b, c, d, Sheng Zhou a, b, d, Tianduo Peng b, c, d, Xunmin Ou a, b, c, d, *
a
Tsinghua University, Zhang Jiagang Joint Institute for Hydrogen Energy and Lithium-Ion Battery Technology, Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, PR China
b
Institute of Energy, Environment, Economy(3E), Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, PR China
c
China Automotive Energy Research Center(CAERC), Tsinghua University, Beijing, 100084, PR China
d
Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Centre for Resources, Energy and Sustainable Development, Laboratory for Low Carbon Energy, Tsinghua University,
Beijing, 100084, China

a r t i c l e i n f o a b s t r a c t

Article history: A unified and complete China life cycle model is established considering differences in various test
Received 24 January 2022 conditions to provide a data check and harmonizing method for fuel economy for medium-and heavy-
Received in revised form duty truck(MHDT), taking into account the differences in MHDTs weight classes, usage scenarios and
26 February 2022
power systems. Different penetration scenarios for alternative fuels are established to predict changes in
Accepted 28 February 2022
Available online 9 March 2022
MHDT fleets. The results show that hydrogen sources substantially impact the emission reduction po-
tential of MHDTs. Renewable electrolysis and by-product hydrogen can reduce GHG emissions by 29.0
e52.4%. Other hydrogen pathways, which rely on hydrogen transportation and storage technologies, will
Keywords:
Hydrogen supply chain
present the opportunity for emission reduction only after the grid becomes low-carbon. In terms of
Medium- and heavy-duty trucks vehicle models, the battery mass of battery-electric MHDT accounts for over 15% of their curb weight,
Harmonized data weakening their emission reduction benefit. By contrast, fuel cell Class 8 trucks may maximize emission
Well-to-wheel reductions because of its lower mass of equipment. Under different scenarios, the MHDT fleet is expected
Greenhouse gas emissions to cut emissions by 12.1e69.9% by 2050. However, overly aggressive adoption of hydrogen could lead to
China an increase in emissions from 2020 to 2040. Thus, comprehensive consideration of the large-scale
promotion of FC-MHDTs combined with China's energy transition and technological development is
suggested.
© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.

1. Introduction impact. Their emissions account for over 45% of CO2, 58.5% of par-
ticulate matter(PM), and 78.8% of NOx as percentages of China's
Because of China's increasing demands for commuting, travel, road traffic emissions [4e6]. Compared with other vehicle types,
and logistics, annual vehicle sales in China have increased from 2.08 the proportion of emissions from MHDTs may rise further because
million in 2000 to 25.31 million in 2020, a 13.3% average annual of the lack of effective control measures [7]. Therefore, controlling
growth rate [1]. Accordingly, by the end of 2020, vehicle ownership the energy consumption and GHG emissions of MHDTs will become
in the country reached 281 million, including 29.49 million a key factor for China to achieve its goals of carbon neutrality.
trucks(10.5%). About 33% of these were medium- and heavy-duty Although new technologies such as diesel particulate filters and
trucks(MHDTs), and 9.63% of CO2 emissions in China came from exhaust gas recirculation have been introduced into MHDTs, these
the transportation industry [2e4]. Over 95% of MHDTs are driven by technologies are far from sufficient to achieve fleet emission
diesel engines, with high work intensity and energy consumption reduction targets. In other words, the achievement of these goals
per unit mileage [1,3]. Despite their small numbers, their green- ultimately relies on overall structural transformations, such as
house gas(GHG) and air pollutant emissions have a remarkable China's “road-to-rail” strategy and alternative fuels [8,9]. As envi-
ronmental and climate issues become more urgent, electricity and
hydrogen, with nearly zero emissions during vehicle operation,
have become the alternative energy sources receiving the most
* Corresponding author. Institute of Energy, Environment, Economy(3E), Tsing- attention [10e12]. China has strongly emphasized alternative fuel
hua University, Beijing, 100084, PR China.
vehicles. With the introduction of policies such as the dual-credit
E-mail address: ouxm@mail.tsinghua.edu.cn (X. Ou).

https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2022.123628
0360-5442/© 2022 Elsevier Ltd. All rights reserved.
L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Nomenclature WTP well-to-pump

WTW well-to-wheel

Abbreviations Subscripts
BEV battery electric vehicle boil-off evaporation loss during transportation
BP-CAI By-product H2 of chlor-alkali industry G greenhouse gas type
BP-COG By-product H2 of coke oven gas i technology pathway
CA chlor-alkali industry j stages of the life cycle
CO2 carbon dioxide KD key equipment
CO2,eq carbon dioxide equivalent m process fuel type
COG coke oven gas n primary fuel type
FC fuel cell
FCV fuel cell vehicles Variables
GHG greenhouse gas EI energy consumption intensity
GVW/GVWR gross vehicle weight/gross vehicle weight rating EN energy consumption
ICEV internal combustion engine vehicle FE key equipment characteristic parameter
LCA life cycle analysis GHG greenhouse gas emission
MHDT medium- and heavy-duty truck ID inventory data
N2O nitrous oxide LEFD direct emission factors of process fuels
NG natural gas LEFU upstream emission factors of process fuels
NP-SOFC Nuclear power-Solid oxide fuel cell M mass of key equipment
PE primary energy MC mass coefficient corresponding to the characteristic
PM particulate matter parameter
PTW pump-to-wheel R is the key equipment mass ratio
SMR steam methane reforming h loss factor
TLCAM Tsinghua LCA model

policy and purchase subsidies, annual sales of new energy vehicles Some studies have focused on the impact of the life cycle of
have jumped from 6500 in 2013 to 1.37 million in 2020. These hydrogen FCV, with life cycle analysis(LCA) being their main
vehicles now represent 42% of global sales, with the Chinese market research method. Using the Ecoinvent database, Yazdanie et al.
penetration rate reaching 5.4% [13]. In particular, China has further comprehensively compared the well-to-wheel(WTW) energy de-
increased its attention to hydrogen energy in recent years. The mands, GHG emissions, and costs of traditional internal combus-
government, academia, and industry actively promote hydrogen tion engine vehicles(ICEVs) and alternative passenger
fuel cell vehicles(FCVs). It is estimated that a total of 1.3 million vehicles(including BEV, FCV and hybrid vehicle). It was found that
such vehicles will be in use by 2030, and hydrogen will account for FCVs driven by hydrogen generated through biomass gasification,
10% of China's energy system by 2050 [14,15]. In achieving a high photobioreactor cracking, and solar thermal decomposition have
proportion of renewable energy, both battery electric vehi- low GHG emissions of less than 100 gCO2 eq/km [30]. By estab-
cles(BEVs) and FCVs are good choices for cutting vehicle life cycle lishing a database based on the GHGenius model, Ahmadi and
GHG emissions [16,17]. However, hydrogen fuel power systems may Kjeang studied alternative hydrogen production method-
be a better choice for MHDTs given the low volume and mass- sdelectrolysis, thermochemical, and natural gas(NG) refor-
energy density, long charging duration, operating temperature re- mingdin four Canadian provinces [31]. Through WTW analysis
quirements, and lithium metal resource constraints for lithium-ion based on the GREET model, Lee et al. from Argonne National Lab-
battery systems [12,18,19]. oratory studied GHG and air pollutant emissions of FC buses in
The overall impact of hydrogen FCVs has been studied previ- different regions of the USA under varying technological scenarios.
ously. Some studies used FCVs as part of a comprehensive model, It was discovered that for FC buses, a fuel economy of 13 miles per
such as LEAP, MESSAGE, or TIMES [20e26]. Liu et al. compared the gallon of diesel equivalent is expected to bring benefits equivalent
market penetration rate of new energy vehicles in China and their to those of diesel buses [32]. In the context of China, Li et al., Hao
impact under different policy frameworks using the LEAP model. et al., and Ren et al. conducted life cycle research on FC passenger
Their results showed that the fuel cell(FC) truck penetration rate vehicles using different basic data and research boundaries
determined the fundamental transformation of road transportation [10,33e35]. All the above studies have focused on the WTW in-
energy [27]. McPherson et al. analyzed the technical and economic fluence of FC passenger vehicles. The results showed that the NG
performance of global hydrogen production and storage technolo- hydrogen production technology pathway is expected to be a
gies using the MESSAGE model. It was found that hydrogen storage transitional technology because it is mature and generates slightly
technology can achieve a high adoption rate only under an opti- lower emissions than diesel vehicles. However, the existing power
mistic cost reduction scenario [28]. Blanco et al. studied the impact grid for water electrolysis production of hydrogen in China still
of the EU's FCV promotion policy by linking a system dynamics requires the overall transformation before achieving emission
model with the TIMES model [29]. While covering a wide range of reduction goals because it involves high GHG emissions.
research, these studies have focused on the interaction among the In recent years, there has been increasing attention to FC trucks
economy, technology, and environmental impacts. Therefore, and several studies on them. Lee et al. studied the fuel economy of
although their technical descriptions of the hydrogen supply chain American FC trucks using the Autonomie simulation model. It was
and FCVs are relatively extensive, there are few descriptions of found that the consumption of fossil energy by NG-based hydrogen
technical progress in various stages of the life cycle. fueled FCV trucks was reduced by 98% than that of diesel ICEV

2
L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

trucks. The emission reduction range for various technology path- technologies generally covers the fuel and vehicle cycles, focusing
ways of hydrogen FC electric trucks was 20%e45% [18]. By on typical energy consumption and GHG emission. The fuel cycle is
designing different FC heavy-duty truck penetration rate scenarios, explored through WTW analysis and can be divided into well-to-
Liu et al. assessed the overall impact of the heavy-duty truck fleet pump(WTP) and pump-to-wheel(PTW) stages. The model built in
on GHG emissions in China. The results showed that GHG emissions this study focuses on the fuel cycle and is divided into six sub-
are expected to be cut by 50% when the FC heavy-duty truck market stages: raw material production, raw material transportation, fuel
share reaches 50% in 2050 [19]. Lao et al. assessed the emission production, fuel transportation, and refueling and vehicle opera-
reduction of FC vehicle alternatives by focusing on market and tion. Additionally, this study takes complete account of multiple
driving data for heavy-duty vehicles in four regions of northern hydrogen supply chain compression-decompression and
China. The results indicated that FC alternatives could cut GHG liquefaction-gasification processes because the physical properties
emissions by trucks in these regions by one-third [36]. Based on the of hydrogen may result in high energy consumption for its
life-cycle emissions, Zhang et al. compared electrification methods compression and liquefaction.
for heavy-duty trucks in China. It's found that when the proportion The vehicle manufacturing process produces some impact for
of hydrogen production from electrolyzed water reaches 40%, FC BEVs and FCVs. Nevertheless, the life cycle impact is negligible. FC-
trucks have the lowest GHG emissions [37]. However, the studies of MHDTs, especially those in China, have not been commercialized
FC MHDTs, especially in the context of China, have several short- yet and have large gaps in power system composition parameters.
comings. First, they have mainly focused on heavy-duty trucks with The production process relies on manual assembly and is far from
a gross vehicle weight rating(GVWR) greater than 14 tons, but there an assembly-line operation, so it is difficult to judge energy and
has been insufficient analysis of MHDTs at other vehicle classes. material consumption during the vehicle cycle. And therefore,
Second, the upstream LCA database is not extensive and is insuffi- WTW analysis is mainly considered in most studies, and the fuel
cient overall. Third, the fuel economy parameter sources are cycle is also prioritized in the GHG calculations of this study
inconsistent. Some studies have specified data of ICEVs according to [34,44e46]. To at least partially reflect the impact of different po-
the actual vehicle operation data or the upper limit of Chinese wer systems on the vehicle cycle, this paper probes their impact on
standards, but as for FCVs, fuel economy tested by the constant the practical application for trucks by categorizing their mass,
velocity method or the ideal fuel economy is adopted, rarely of- volume, and other parameters. The functional units used in this
fering fuel economy parameters under unified standards. Fourth, study are 1 MJ H2 and 1 km driven.
the impact of volume and weight of auxiliary equipment, such as The upstream technology pathways of the hydrogen supply
power cells and hydrogen storage tanks on the load capacity of chain and the MHDTs models considered in this study are shown in
MHDTs, has not been fully explored. Table 1. They cover all related mainstream large-scale hydrogen
This study probes the GHG emission characteristics of various supply technology options. Notably, as most of the coke oven
links in the hydrogen energy supply chain by establishing a local- gas(COG) from coking plants, affiliated to steel plants, has been
ized LCA database for China. Combined with an analysis of FC- fully consumed, the LCA modeling of hydrogen as a by-product of
MHDT component sizing and fuel economy testing in major coun- COG adopts the material and energy flow of independent coking
tries worldwide, a harmonized analysis model is established plants rather than the national average. Additionally, we believe it
comprehensively considering the differences in MHDT fuel econ- is more reasonable to adopt the average level of energy consump-
omy from different models, particularly for FC-MHDT. Also, differ- tion in the hydrogen storage and transportation stage. For example,
ences in the weights of the key equipment of various power electric power from the national grid is consumed in the storage
systems and different vehicle classes are analyzed using the and transportation of renewable energy produced by hydrogen. The
component sizing research method to analyze the impact of types and proportions of energy consumption for storage and
equipment weight on GHG emission reductions. Finally, different transportation by trucks and vessels are based on the average level
alternative fuel penetration rate scenarios are established to predict for China. The technology pathways included in the PTW stage
the overall changes in the GHG emissions of the MHDT fleets. include various types of MHDTs for cargo transportation. An anal-
This paper consists of the following sections. Section 2(Meth- ysis of the BEVs and ICEVs driven by diesel/NG as benchmark
odology) clarifies the system boundary of this research, the bottom- technology pathways is performed. In terms of vehicle models,
up fleet GHG prediction method, and the calculation method for trucks with a GVWR above 3.5 tons, which includes most com-
key MHDT power systems equipment. Section 3(Data and key as- mercial trucks, are analyzed using the definitions of MHDTs in
sumptions) establishes a localized LCA database, interprets the China and the USA [47,48].
harmonizing method and results of MHDT fuel economy data, and
shows the ownership data adopted. Section 4(Results and discus-
sion) presents the results in terms of four aspects: hydrogen energy
source, vehicle class, penetration rate scenario, and vehicle 2.2. Bottom-up method for calculating WTW energy consumption
configuration. Section 5(Concluding remarks) summarizes this and GHG emissions
study.
A bottom-up method is used in this study to calculate the GHG
2. Methodology emissions and primary energy(PE)draw coal, crude oil, and
NGdconsumption of different pathways, which has been widely
2.1. Research boundary and functional units used in LCA studies [49e52]. The direct and indirect energy/ma-
terial consumption of each phase of the technology pathway are
The research boundary of this study is shown in Fig. 1. The model compiled into a life cycle inventory. The results are combined with
used in this study is based on the Tsinghua LCA model(TLCAM) and the LCA results for energy and materials to calculate PE consump-
the LCA model for BEV and FCV developed by the authors previ- tion and GHG emissions when 1 MJ hydrogen is consumed, and the
ously [10,38e43]. TLCAM is developed based on the GREET model vehicles travel 1 km. Equation (1) is used to calculate PE con-
framework. Its life cycle inventory applies to China and accounts for sumption. Equation (2) calculates the emissions of the primary
multiple fuel production and transportation modes and their per- GHGs. Equation (3) converts the emissions of various GHGs into the
centages. The system boundary of LCA models for vehicle equivalent CO2 emissions according to global warming potential.
3
L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Fig. 1. Research boundary, which is extended from the TLCAM and EV-LCA model, which was developed by the authors previously [10].

Table 1
Energy and vehicle technology pathways considered in this study [10].

Fuel Production Fuel Transportation Vehicle Operation

Coal Gasification(Coal-based) GH2 by tube trailer Fuel cell(FC-MHDT)

NG reforming(NG-based) GH2 by pipeline
Water electrolysis-Hydro power(Hydro) LH2 by tank
Water electrolysis-Grid power(Grid-power) LH2 by ocean tanker
Nuclear power-Solid oxide fuel cell(NP-SOFC) LH2 by train/barge
By-product H2 from chlor-alkali industry(BP-CAI)
By-product H2 from COG(BP-COG)

Diesel Road Diesel(D-MHDT)

NG Pipeline NG(NG-MHDT)
Train/barge
Ocean tanker
Grid power Battery(BE-MHDT)

Note: The contents in brackets indicate the corresponding abbreviations.

direct and upstream emission factors of process fuel. The subscript i

X
5 X
6 X
3
indicates the technology pathway; j is the life cycle phases; m is the
ENi ¼ EIi;j;m  PEFm;n (1) process fuel type(coal, natural gas, gasoline, diesel, fuel oil or
j¼1 m¼1 n¼1
electric power); n denotes the PE type; and G denotes the GHG
type(CO2, CH4 or N2O).
X
5 X
6 In particular, two problems are prioritized in this study. On the
GHGG;i ¼ EIi;j;m  （LEFDm;G þ LEFUm;G ） (2) one hand, an allocation problem exists in using the LCA method for
j¼1 m¼1
the technology pathways that involve many by-products(hydrogen
from COG and CAI) which are of interest in China. In the LCA
GHGi ¼ GHGCO2 ;i þ 25GHGCH4 ;i þ 298GHGN2 O;i (3) implementation standards, the system expansion method, which
means involving the life cycle of all by-products, is preferred, and
Here, EN denotes the PE consumption; EI is the process fuel
the subdivision method may be used as an alternative [53]. Most of
consumption intensity; PEF is the conversion coefficient between
the studies related to the technology pathways of by-product
process fuel and PE; GHG is GHG emissions; LEFD and LEFU are the
4
L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

hydrogen adopt the subdivision method, which directly allocates Table 2

the total energy consumption and GHG emissions according to the Component mass coefficients.

proportion of product mass [31,33,54]. This study accounts for the Unit Current Foreseeable Ideal
life cycle of all products through the system expansion method. It Electric motor specific power kW/kg 4 6 7
refines the lists of energy consumption and material consumption Battery energy density(for BE-MHDT) kWh/kg 0.24 0.4 0.5
into the processes directly related to each product as practically as Battery power density(for FC-MHDT) kW/kg 0.25 0.35 0.38
possible to clarify the responsibilities of hydrogen energy con- FC specific power kW/kg 1.8 4 5
H2 storage tank wt/% 3.5 5.5 7.5
sumption and emission.
NG storage tank kg/kg 4.1 2.7 1.6
On the other hand, this study focuses on the impact of hydrogen
Source [61e70].
storage, transportation, and refilling processes. It considers energy
consumption and material consumption of these processes in
terms of simulation results, equipment design standards and
mainly concerned in the process of vehicle design [61e63]. Given
methods, and China's actual hydrogen equipment parameters
the future development potential of gaseous hydrogen storage
[55e60]. Additionally, this study also considers the hydrogen
tanks at pressures of 30 and 70 MPa and liquid hydrogen storage
leakage loss and the volatilization loss of liquid hydrogen caused by
tanks, and because of hydrogen cost and storage energy con-
equipment heat exchange, as shown in Equation (4) and(5).
sumption constraints, metal and liquid organic hydrogen storage
are not considered in this study [64e66]. For NG vehicle storage
Y
5
1
EIi;j;m ¼ IDi;j;m  (4) tanks, the current mainstream cost-effective Type II cylinders and
j0 ¼j
1  hi;j0 Types III and IV that may be used in the future are considered
[67e69].
IDboiloff ¼ IDliquidation  hboiloff  Di (5)
2.4. Scale effect estimation method
Here ID denotes the inventory data obtained through literature
review, simulation, and field investigation; h is the hydrogen In this study, the widely used bottom-up fleet GHG emissions
leakage loss in each link of the life cycle; IDboil-off is the energy loss calculation method is used to analyze the impact of new energy
due to unavoidable heat exchange in liquid hydrogen storage and MHDTs on the MHDT fleet [71,72]. The ownership of various ve-
transportation; IDliquidation is the energy consumption of hydrogen hicles in the future fleet is evaluated based on new sales, the sur-
liquefaction; hboil-off is the daily evaporation rate(%/day); D is the vival rate, and the power system penetration rate. Annual GHG
storage and transportation process duration(days). For more emissions for individual vehicles are combined to estimate the total
detailed discussions of these two problems, see the Supplementary emissions of the fleet, as shown in Equation (6).
material and Ren et al. [10].
XX X
Y
GHGY ¼ SaleC;f ;y  SRC;Y;y  MILC;y  FCRC;f ;y
2.3. Vehicle power system considerations method Y f yLC

 GHGIY;f (8)
As mentioned in Section 2.1, given considerations such as
reducing uncertainty, WTW analysis is primarily adopted in this Here, GHG denotes the total GHG emissions of the MHDT fleet in
study without calculating the GHG emissions from vehicle the target year(MtCO2,eq); Sale is annual new sales(106); SR is the
manufacturing in detail. However, for the MHDTs used mainly for survival rate(the percentage of vehicles in the target year Y that can
cargo transportation, the impact of different vehicle power systems still be put into operation, %); MIL is the vehicle mileage(103 km/
cannot be ignored. In this study, the key equipment mass and mass year); FCR is the fuel consumption rate(MJ/km); GHGI is the life
ratio is calculated using Equation (6) and(7), and the impact of the cycle(LC) GHG emission intensity of the fuel(kg CO2,eq/MJ); and L is
mass of key equipment, represented by battery, FC and storage the service life of the vehicle model(year). The subscript Y denotes
tanks, on FC-MHDTs and BE-MHDTs is discussed. the target year; C is the MHDT class; f is the fuel type; y is the yth
X year in the summation formula.
MKD;C;f ¼ FEKD;C;f  MCKD (6) The classic assumptions of Oak Ridge National Laboratory are
adopted for the vehicle survival rate used in this study [73]. In
MKDC;f addition, to make the results of this study easier to compare and
RC;f ¼ (7) have more reference value, the four scenarios designed by Liu et al.
GVWRC;f
are used as technology penetration rate scenarios for this study, as
Here M denotes the key equipment mass(kg); R is the key shown in Table 3 [19]. Under the aggressive, moderate, conserva-
equipment mass ratio(%); FE is the key equipment characteristic tive, and No-FC scenarios, FC-MHDT are expected to account for
parameter(which is energy(kWh) or power(kW) for cells, or fuel 100%, 50%, 20%, and 0% of total sales in 2050 [19]. The aggressive
mass(kg) for storage tanks); MC is the mass coefficient corre- scenario is the closest to China's committed “carbon neutrality”
sponding to the characteristic parameter. Subscript KD represents goal for 2060. The moderate scenario assumption is identical to the
the key equipment. For NG-MHDT, the key equipment is the NG scenario considered by the California Energy Commission [74], and
storage tank; for BE-MHDT, it is the electric motor and the battery; the conservative scenario lies between the moderate and reference
for FC-MHDT, it is the electric motor, battery, FC, and hydrogen scenarios.
storage tank. ICEV sales are set based on previous sales data for China. Over
The unit mass parameters for the MHDT power system equip- the past ten years, diesel has always occupied a leading position,
ment used in this study are shown in the Table 2. Both FC- and BE- accounting for over a 95% share [1,3]. The gasoline share has
MHDT have power cells, but there are differences in their power gradually decreased from 2% to almost zero, and the NG share has
cell selection, so different coefficients are used in this study. FC- remained at 0.5%e5%. Therefore, this research assumes that the ng
MHDTs, which are essentially hybrids, tend to employ batteries share of China's ICEV will remain at about 5% in the future. The
with higher power density and the output power of the battery is proportion of gasoline is assumed to remain at essentially zero,
5
L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Table 3
FC-MHDT penetration rate scenarios.

Aggressive Scenario Moderate Scenario Conservative Scenario FC-free Scenario

2020 0% 0% 0% 0%
2030 30% 12.5% 5% 0%
2040 70% 30% 12% 0%
2050 100% 50% 20% 0%

Source [19].

with diesel dominating [1]. According to the vehicle cycle analysis Table 5
method proposed in Section 2.3(see Section 4.4), BE-MHDTs may Primary-energy intensities for process fuels in China(Unit: MJ/MJ).

only be used as an alternative technology for FC-MHDTs in a min- PEF Raw coal Raw NG Raw petroleum
imal number of reference scenarios. Therefore, the BE-MHDT is not Coal 1.070 0.002 0.014
considered when calculating the scale effect of MHDT. Other NG 0.041 1.056 0.048
required parameters are set by reference to actual truck statistics Diesel 0.066 0.047 1.146
for China; see Table 4 [36,75]. Gasoline 0.068 0.047 1.153
Residue oil 0.052 0.042 1.102
Electricity 2.140 0.075 0.035
3. Data and key assumptions
Sources [10,38e43].

3.1. WTP stage

shown in the Table 8 [80e82].
3.1.1. Life-cycle process fuel energy intensities and GHG emission
The share of technologies in China's hydrogen energy supply
factors
chain is also very important for predicting the overall impact of FC-
Parameters related to various process fuels are based on the
MHDTs on the MHDT fleet. The future predictions are sourced from
results of iterative and traceability function research using TLCAM
the published White Paper on China's Hydrogen Energy and Fuel Cell
in the context of China. Table 5 shows the PE consumption corre-
Industry and are used in this study [83]. Industry-wide hydrogen
sponding to 1 MJ of process fuel consumption. Table 6 shows the
demand is analyzed, and the proportion of hydrogen supply in
direct and indirect GHG emission factors per unit MJ of process fuel
China's carbon neutrality scenario is designed in this white paper.
consumption obtained by TLCAM according to the carbon content,
The share of hydrogen generated by renewable energy will increase
oxidation rate, and upstream life cycle analysis results. This study
from 3% in 2020 to 70% in 2050. It is estimated that the proportion
also accounts for the impacts of different electric power sources. As
of hydrogen from fossil fuels will gradually drop from 67% in 2020
shown in Table 7, although hydropower does not directly consume
to 20% in 2050. By-product hydrogen will account for 30% in 2020
fossil fuel, hydrological changes will cause forest and biological
and is expected to drop to 5% by 2040. It is estimated that 10% of
resource changes. This impact is assumed to be 5 gCO2,eq/MJ [77].
hydrogen in 2050 will come from new technologies [83]. This study
Additionally, this study combines the LCA research results of the
combines the actual resource constraints of various hydrogen
China Life Cycle Database and Ecoinvent with the status quo and
technology pathways in aggregate demand, as judged in the white
proportion of production technology pathways of materials in
paper and other research results, to improve hydrogen supply
China [78,79]. Other materials involved in hydrogen supply
scenarios.
chains(industrial water, steam, sodium hydroxide, etc.) are con-
Because steam methane reforming(SMR) is the most cost-
verted into the corresponding process fuel consumption based on
effective hydrogen production solution today, it is assumed that
the TLCAM system. See the Supplementary material and Ren et al.
the SMR hydrogen output will witness a slight increase and then
[10] for specific parameters.
remain stable. It is also believed that SMR will account for half of
fossil fuel hydrogen output by 2050, with the most economical
3.1.2. Future energy mix data
centralized SMR as the mainstream technology. As for coal-based
This study mainly considers power mix and hydrogen supply
hydrogen, it is assumed that existing fluidized beds will be grad-
system changes for the future energy structure. Referring to the
ually deactivated and replaced by entrained beds in 2040, which
assumptions made in previous LCA studies, the technologies in
will become the mainstream technology by 2050. Additionally, by-
each link of the fossil fuel cycle are relatively well developed, with
product hydrogen from COG will decrease with a decreasing pro-
little room for improvement. In contrast with the impacts of elec-
portion of blast furnace-basic oxygen furnace produced steel in
tricity and hydrogen on the life cycle of fossil fuels, the impact of
China. According to the International Energy Agency, China's crude
the improvement of related technologies is negligible [43]. With
steel output will decrease from 1.08 billion tons to 710 million tons
reference to the research conducted by the National Development
in 2050, and BF-BOF will account for 16% of the country's total
and Reform Commission of China and related literature, the sce-
crude steel output. Therefore, it is estimated that resource of by-
narios for China's future power structure used in this study are

Table 4
Vehicle models and main parameters considered in scale effect analysis.

Medium Heavy

Tractor Dump Freight Special

Main applications e Transportation of glass, steel and cement Transportation of brick trash Logistics Transportation of concrete
Annual distance(103km) 29e35 150e200 80e100 200e250 30e60
Ratio of new sales e 53.2e75.9 19.6e27.5 34.8e39.7 18.8e24.4

Source [36,75,76].

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L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Table 6
Direct and indirect GHG emissions for various process fuels.

Items CO2,direct CH4,direct N2O,direct CO2,upsteam CH4,upsteam N2O,upsteam

Variable name LEFD LEFD LEFD LEFU LEFU LEFU

Unit g/MJ g/MJ mg/MJ g/MJ g/MJ mg/MJ
Coal 81.642 0.001 0.001 6.846 0.435 0.377
NG 56.991 0.001 0.001 9.934 0.093 0.409
Diesel 72.585 0.004 0.028 18.575 0.041 0.406
Gasoline 67.914 0.080 0.002 19.216 0.042 0.411
Residue oil 75.819 0.002 0.000 14.022 0.034 0.360
Electricity _ _ _ 181.507 0.877 2.848

Sources [10,38e43].

Table 7
Primary energy consumption and GHG emissions of various power generation technologies adopted in China.

Items Units Coal electricity Gas electricity Oil electricity Nuclear electricity Biomass Hydro Others

PE consumption MJ/MJ 3.194 2.656 4.030 0.063 0.076 _ 0

Raw Coal MJ/MJ 3.147 0.017 0.184 0.052 0.010 _ 0
Raw NG MJ/MJ 0.005 2.625 0.150 0.005 0.002 _ 0
Raw petroleum MJ/MJ 0.042 0.013 3.696 0.006 0.064 _ 0
GHG emission gCO2,eq/MJ 292.326 155.543 305.662 6.5 5.8 5 0

Note: “Others” include wind, photovoltaic, tidal, and geothermal power.

Source [33,43,77].

Table 8
Electricity mix scenarios in China(%).

Items Coal electricity Gas electricity Oil electricity Nuclear electricity Biomass Hydro Others

2020 60.44 6.32 0.02 4.28 2.29 14.78 12.48

2030 38.85 4.79 0.02 3.94 2.34 15.26 35.76
2040 14.49 3.76 0.01 3.91 3.12 13.29 61.40
2050 6.83 3.07 0.01 4.27 4.20 14.39 67.23

Note: “Others” include wind, photovoltaic, tidal, and geothermal power.

Source [80e82].

product hydrogen from COG will gradually decrease from 10.3 scenarios. The parameters of the main technologies used in
million tons to 3.7 million tons [5,84]. hydrogen energy production and technological progress are shown
The scale of CA industry depends largely on the demand for in the Table 9:
polyvinyl chloride and caustic soda. According to research, China's According to the database established in this study and the re-
polyvinyl chloride industry will essentially reach a state of satura- sults of previous hydrogen supply chain studies, the phased LC GHG
tion, and the demand for caustic soda may increase slightly with emission intensities of technology pathways for past years in this
the development of electrolytic aluminum, tempered glass, and study are shown in Fig. 3. The red dot matrix represents the LC GHG
other industries [85]. It is thus assumed that the by-product emissions range for two traditional fuels, NG and diesel(70.5e93.3
hydrogen from CA industry will remain at 0.8e1 Mt/y in the gCO2,eq/MJ), and the green dot matrix represents the LC GHG
future. For hydrogen from electrolysis, during the technology pro- emissions range of electricity under the designed scenar-
motion stage, hydrogen production by grid power will be the io(29.4e188.3gCO2,eq/MJ). The error bars for each pathway indicate
mainstream choice. The share of hydrogen from renewable energy the impact of different hydrogen storage and transportation tech-
will increase with renewable energy development and the nologies. The upper bound is liquid hydrogen tank transportation,
improvement of hydrogen energy storage and transportation and the lower bound is hydrogen pipeline transportation in most
technologies. This study assumes that in 2050, the output of cases. It can be seen that with the improvement of hydrogen
hydrogen from grid power will account for 10% of total hydrogen liquefaction technology and the transformation of electric power
energy, and the proportions of wind power and photovoltaic power systems, liquid hydrogen storage and transportation and general
in hydrogen production from renewable energy will be consistent hydrogen gas storage and transportation will tend to be the same in
with their shares in China. In keeping with these judgments and terms of LC GHG emission.
assumptions, the hydrogen technology development scenario
adopted in this study is shown in Fig. 2.
3.2. PTW stage

3.1.3. Hydrogen energy supply chain data 3.2.1. Differences and processing methods of data sources
As mentioned in Section 2.1, data on the hydrogen energy supply FC-MHDT research remains at an early stage, and energy con-
chain is analyzed in the model established by the author's team(see sumption research is still incomplete, requiring the combination of
the Supplementary material and Ren et al. [10] for details). This many data sources. However, the fuel economy of same MHDT class
study further considers: 1) the progress in each hydrogen energy obtained from various data sources may vary greatly. On the one
technology link; 2) differences in the life cycles of trucks and pas- hand, there are many MHDT models and numerous application
senger vehicles; 3) life cycle characteristics of some key usage scenarios, which should be differentiated. On the other hand, the
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L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Fig. 2. The hydrogen supply chain technology scenario adopted in this study.

Table 9
Main technological progress parameters of hydrogen supply chain.

Unit 2020 2030 2040 2050

Alkaline Electrolyzer Efficiency % 65% 68% 72% 75%

Proton Exchange Membrane Electrolyzer Efficiency % 58% 66% 68% 71%
SOEC Efficiency % 78% 80% 82% 85%
By-product Hydrogen Recovery Rate % 78% 82% 86% 90%
Mass Efficiency of Gaseous Hydrogen Transportation Wt% 3.0% 3.5% 4.0% 4.5%
Energy Consumption of Liquefaction kWh/kg 16 14 12 10
Energy Consumption of Refueling kWh/kg 0.80 1.10 1.40 1.70

Source [56,60,86,87].

differ in vehicle models referred to by the same category name.

Therefore, the following three principles are established in this
study: 1) By regarding weight classification as the focus, some
representative classes are selected, without discussing truck size in
detail; 2) Subject to the classification of China and Europe, the
classification and actual data of other countries are converted to
Chinese standards; 3) All data is converted into metric units, fuel
economy is expressed in fuel consumption per 100 km, and USA
fuel economy data is converted into fuel consumption per 100 km
according to the load results for trucks in different vehicle classes.
Differences in test/simulation conditions: The fuel economy
standards and test methods of MHDTs in different countries vary
greatly and have undergone several major adjustments over time.
The operating conditions adopted in FC-MHDT tests and simula-
tions in the studies in various regions during different periods are
Fig. 3. LC GHG emission intensity for each hydrogen production pathway. quite variable and difficult to compare. As shown in Table 10, the
previous testing cycles in China are similar to the older EU cycles.
Fewer studies match the new operating conditions issued by China
test standards and operating conditions in various countries are in 2020. The simulated operating conditions established by the
quite different and are still being updated, and researchers from USA's EPA/NHTSA are more widely accepted by simulation software
different institutions tend to conduct research following the stan- such as GEM, Autonomie, and Cruise. Therefore, the corresponding
dards of their own countries. In previous studies, these two prob- processing principles are established in this study: 1) The fuel
lems have not been fully discussed, often leading to an economy information data in corporate bulletins, academic papers,
overestimation of the emission reduction benefits of FC-MHDTs and government reports are processed and filtered by publication
and reducing the general applicability of LCA research results. date, region and the operating conditions adopted; 2) The priority
This study addresses these problems by extensively reviewing the level of measured values is higher than simulation results; 3) The
standards and literature of the countries and regions that have operating condition weighting method set by the USA's EPA/NHTSA
currently established MHDT fuel economy/test standard, including and the corresponding energy consumption/GHG emission stan-
those of China, the USA, EU, and Japan. The following basic prin- dards are used as the benchmark to convert the research results of
ciples are formulated for collecting and processing MHDT fuel other regions. The simulation results obtained are adjusted under
economy data. different conditions, with small differences in input parameters and
MHDT classification differences: As shown in Supplementary operating conditions, according to the existing comparative
material, MHDTs tend to be classified by weight, size, and usage studies' conclusions to select representative and consistent results
scenario in different countries [47,48,88e90]. Research results may [91e99].

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L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Table 10
Test/simulation operating conditions related to fuel economy standards in different countries.

Region Standard Code Effective year Test type Test Conditions

USA EPA/NHTSA Phase 1 2014 Vehicle Weighted summation of results under basic conditions(ARB transient/55 mph cruise/65 mph cruise)
Engine Federal Test Procedure/Supplemental Emissions Test
EPA/NHTSA Phase 2 2018 Vehicle Weighted summation
Engine FTP/SET
China GB/T 12545.2e2001 2001 Vehicle 6-mode test cycle, a simplified accelerated - uniform test cycle
GB/T 27840-2011 2012 Vehicle China- World Transient Vehicle Cycle, adapted from World Transient Vehicle Cycle
GB/T 38146.2e2019 2020 Vehicle China Heavy-Duty Commercial Vehicle Test Cycle
Engine China Engine Test Cycle
EU Euro III, IV and V 2000 Engine European Stationary/Transient Cycle
Euro VI 2013 Engine World Harmonized Stationary/Transient Cycle
Japan JE05 2005 Engine JE05 Cycle

Note: Vehicle means testing the whole vehicle, Engine means testing the engine and then converting it into values the whole vehicle.

Notably, the Recommended Model Catalog for the Promotion and Many studies have optimized truck component sizing based on
Application of New Energy Vehicles, published by the Ministry of requirements for power, maximum speed, endurance mileage,
Industry and Information Technology of China, covers almost all comprehensive fuel economy, and other factors for various vehicle
important data on the configuration and fuel economy of BE- models under representative or actual operating conditions
MHDTs and FC-MHDTs in China [100]. However, the endurance [94,101,112e116]. This study estimates the parameters related to
mileage given in this catalog is measured at a constant speed of the MHDT power system, which are shown in Table 12. Because the
40 km/h, which is not representative of the true value. In this study, FC-MHDT is an FC-battery hybrid vehicle, its component sizing
adjustments are made to the Recommended Model Catalog based on needs to design the FC and batteries' output power and solid oxide
the difference between the cruise operating condition of 55 mph cell strategy in the FC power cells before simulation, which involves
preset by the GEM software and the constant speed condition of some uncertainty. Therefore, a simplification is made in this study,
40 km/h in terms of simulation results in the Advisor software and an ideal value from related research results is directly taken as
[100e103]. a representative value. For the BE- and NG-MHDT, the Fleet DNA's
data, the endurance mileage required for various truck models, is
used as a benchmark. Their fuel economies are combined as a
3.2.2. Fuel economy and vehicle configuration parameters
simple estimation. Also, the new energy MHDT configuration pa-
The basic information and fuel economy data of representative
rameters of the Ministry of Industry and Information Technology of
diesel and FC-MHDT models are selected through extensive
China are used as a benchmark to avoid errors [100,113].
research and data sorting, as shown in Table 11. From this table,
there are many heavy-duty truck types with GVWR range between
14 and 60t. In this study, refuse trucks, construction trucks, trailers, 3.2.3. Vehicle type ownership data
and long-haul trucks with GVWRs ranging between 30 and 38t are Because the statistical authorities in China adopt a much more
selected as representative heavy trucks. Additionally, a simplifica- extensive classification method for trucks than this study(see
tion is made in this study given the difficulty in obtaining analysis Table 11), there is no way to predict each truck sub-category
results for BE- and NG-MHDT that share identical conditions with accurately. Therefore, this research focuses on Classes 3e8 when
D- and FC-MHDT. We assume that the fuel economy of pure electric the scale effect is calculated. According to the previous research
heavy trucks is 60% of that of traditional trucks, and the fuel basis for TLCAM modeling, data on changes in the ownership of
economy of NG heavy trucks is 108% of that of traditional trucks various vehicle models are shown in Fig. 4 [10,40e43].
[67,104]. According to statistical data and regulations in China and
the USA, the annual decrease in the MHDT fuel consumption rates 4. Results and discussion
from 2013 to 2014 and 2015e2019 was 6% and 3%, respectively.
Therefore, it is assumed that the fuel consumption rate for D- and 4.1. The impact of different hydrogen sources
NG-MHDTs improves by 2% each year from 2020 to 2030, and by 1%
each year from 2030 to 2050. The fuel economy of FC- and BE- The impact of different hydrogen sources on LC GHG emission is
MHDTs is assumed to improve by 1% each year [105,106]. explored to make the upstream impact more intuitive, with heavy-

Table 11
Truck types considered in this study and their fuel economy.

USA China Usage scenario Code Fuel economy in 2020(MJ/km)

Diesel Hydrogen Electricity NG

Class 2B Light Pickup Truck and Van Class 2 4.05 2.53 2.43 4.37
Class 3 Middle Walk-in Van Class 3-a 4.71 2.77 2.82 5.08
Straight Truck Class 3-b 6.08 3.22 3.65 6.57
Class 4 Van Class 4 8.34 3.97 5.00 9.00
Class 5 Vocational Truck Class 5 6.08 4.75 3.65 6.57
Class 6 Construction Class 6 10.15 5.07 6.09 10.96
Class 8 Heavy Refuse Class 8-a 14.77 8.16 8.86 15.96
Construction Class 8-b 11.38 6.61 6.83 12.29
Tractor-trailer Class 8-c 11.38 7.85 6.83 12.29
Long haul Class 8-d 14.03 7.80 8.42 15.16

Source [12,70,102,107e112].

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L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Table 12
MHDT power system configuration parameters.

Class Fleet Range (km) Fleet Max Range (km) FC-MHDT

Motor power(kW) FC power(kW) Battery power(kW)

Class 2 246 246 128 147 6

Class 3-a 262 262 157 149 62
Class 3-b 241 478 146 165 4
Class 4 322 406 151 166 59
Class 5 241 472 210 253 8
Class 6 322 668 151 170 30
Class 8-a 241 259 186 139 57
Class 8-b 322 661 349 363 47
Class 8-c 402 809 256 273 94
Class 8-d 644 922 250 247 95

Source [95,103,114e118].

2030e2040.
High GHG emissions of grid power not only hinder the emission
reduction potential of grid power-based pathways, but also
dramatically affects the reduction potential of other pathways.
With the reduction of power grid carbon emissions and further
emission reductions by low-carbon hydrogen production technol-
ogies, the NG-based pathway is expected to replace the D-MHDT.
Also, GHG emissions from BE-MHDTs and FC-MHDTs are gradually
equalizing over time. The overall cost and metal resource demand
of these two vehicle types will become more critical in technology
selection.
The excessively high proportion of electricity consumption
during the storage and transportation stage is the main reason for
the failure of hydrogen energy to reduce emissions within a short
Fig. 4. Future ownership prediction results used in this study. period. Under the current scenarios, from the more favorable
pipeline transportation to the most energy-consuming liquid
hydrogen transportation, the LC GHG emissions from different
duty long-haul trucks(Class 8-d) chosen as representative, as hydrogen storage and transportation technologies range between
shown in Fig. 5. In 2020, the GHG emissions of China's heavy-duty 51.3 and 679.8 CO2 eq/km. This difference produces a decisive effect
diesel trucks were 802.2 gCO2 eq/km. By contrast, under the cur- on the emission reduction effect of FC-MHDTs. However, with the
rent scenarios, renewable electrolysis hydrogen production is ex- low carbonization of electric power, the impact of different storage
pected to reduce LC GHG emissions by 48.7e52.4%, and by-product and transportation technologies on GHG emissions is rapidly
hydrogen pathways are expected to reduce by 29.0e47.7%. There- decreasing. Thus, it may be unnecessary to rapidly promote tech-
fore, current pilot projects in regions of China with rich by-product nologies with low GHG emissions and high transportation effi-
hydrogen and renewable resources(such as Zhangjiakou) can pro- ciency but with high construction costs.
duce emission reduction benefits. The fossil fuel-based hydrogen
pathways cannot reduce GHG emissions but will increase GHG 4.2. The impact of different vehicle classes
emissions by 60.0e148.6%. Because of its long supply chain, grid
power hydrogen production has the most GHG emissions and is not From data on fuel economy and the hydrogen energy supply
expected to achieve the goal of emission reduction until the period chain, FC-MHDTs are compared with D-MHDTs and BE-MHDTs at
the same level to obtain LC GHG emission reductions and LC GHG
emission reduction rates, as shown in Fig. 6, where negative values
indicate that additional GHG emissions will be generated.
Overall, heavy-duty trucks can maximize GHG emission re-
ductions when the hydrogen energy supply chain is as energy-
saving as possible. The medium-duty trucks represented by Class
4 have the optimal emission reduction rate, while the light-duty
trucks represented by Class 2 are less competitive in both emis-
sion reductions and rates. In areas with rich renewable resources
and by-product hydrogen resources, MHDT models have little
impact on the emission reduction rate, and further emission
reduction mainly depends on the technological choices of the
hydrogen supply chain. If demonstration projects are implemented
in these regions, various FC-MHDTs pathways can reduce future
emissions under current scenarios by 79.7e98.3% under ideal
technical conditions, which means it's possible achieve the goal of
Fig. 5. LC GHG emissions for Class 8-d as an example. Note: The hydrogen production
nearly zero GHG emissions now. In general regions or those relying
pathways from left to right in the same column are NG-based, coal-based, grid power, on NG, coal, or grid power for hydrogen production, medium-duty
hydro, renewable, BP-COG, and BP-CAI, respectively. trucks can be used without adding GHG emissions by 2030 under
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L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Fig. 6. Emission reductions(a) and emission reduction rates(b) of FC-MHDT and BE-MHDT compared to D-MHDT for various hydrogen pathways and vehicle models.
Note1Data in the same column, from left to right, is for 2020, 2030, 2040, and 2050.
Note2The zero point on the y-axis represents the LC GHG of D-MHDT. And the upper/lower boundaries include the impacts of uncertain hydrogen supply chain and fuel economy.

the NG hydrogen production pathway, cutting GHG emissions

8.7e32.0% from 2030. However, their emission reduction benefits
will be surpassed by those of BE-MHDTs before 2040. Therefore,
this technology pathway can be regarded as a sub-optimal solution
in the early technical development stage of FC-MHDTs. Under the
grid power hydrogen production pathway, most MHDTs are ex-
pected to achieve the goal of emission reduction between 2030 and
2040, making the 2030e2040 period the best opportunity for FC-
MHDTs to be promoted in general regions.

4.3. GHG reduction effects under different FC-MHDT penetration

scenarios

According to the stock share of various fuel types in MHDTs and

LC GHG emission results, MHDT fleet GHG emissions under each Fig. 7. Total LC GHG emissions of the MHDT fleet for each scenario.
scenario are analyzed, as shown in Fig. 7. Under the FC-free sce-
nario, the GHG emissions of the MHDT fleet will witness a slight
promotion of FC-MHDTs nationwide within a short period may lead
drop since 2025. The promotion of FC-MHDTs will effectively
to an increase of about 11.3% in GHG emissions, so these vehicles
reduce fleet GHG emissions. By 2050, GHG emissions will be cut by
should be used in regions with rich renewable energy/by-product
12.1% under the conservative scenario and about 69.9% under the
hydrogen resources in the short term. The opportunity for their
aggressive scenario, relative to the reference scenario. Direct
11
L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

promotion throughout the country may emerge from 2030 to 2040. equipment mass of Class 5 MHDTs are lower than that of Class 4 and
6 due to their lower fuel consumption rates and average driving
range requirements.
4.4. The impact of key power system equipment

The mass of key MHDT equipment and its contribution to GVWR 4.5. Sensitivity analysis and comparison of similar studies
is calculated according to MHDT operating condition and endur-
ance mileage requirements for different vehicle classes, combined By taking LC GHG of the MHDT fleet as an example, this study
with technical development coefficients, as shown in Fig. 8. Even if conducts sensitivity analysis on the fuel economy and sales of FC-
technological progress is fully accounted for, the proportion of key MHDTs. As shown in(a) and(b) of Fig. 9, the MHDT fleet GHG
equipment mass of BE-MHDTs for most vehicle types exceeds 15%, emissions are relatively sensitive to FC-MHDT sales in the short
which is neither economically nor environmentally feasible. These term, while in the longer term and more aggressive scenarios, the
qualify as candidates only for trucks with a high proportion of other impact of fuel economy will be dominant. The high sensitivity of
equipment weight(such as Class 8-a). The FC-MHDT power system sales means that short-term FC-MHDT promotion strategies need
for heavy-duty trucks produces little impact on cargo trans- to be carefully considered in terms of their actual emission reduc-
portation, so greater benefits can be obtained if the promotion of tion benefits, rather than being too aggressive.
FC-MHDTs for heavy-duty trucks is prioritized. Combining Figs. 6 Only heavy-duty trucks with GVWR above 14 tons are consid-
and 8, it can be found that if the impact of cargo capacity of ered in most similar studies. For convenience, the heavy-duty truck
various models is considered, FC heavy-duty trucks have better portion of this study's results is compared with similar segments of
GHG reduction benefits than medium-duty trucks, and FC-MHDTs other studies [19]. The results are shown in Fig. 10. GHG fleet
with grid-power based hydrogen may have better emission emissions in this study under different scenarios are 30e50%
reduction benefits than BE-MHDTs from 2020 to 2030. Notably, key higher than the previous results. The reasons for this are analyzed

Fig. 8. Total mass(a) and mass ratio(b) of key equipment for power systems for different technology pathways and MHDTs.

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L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Fig. 9. Analysis of GHG emission sensitivity of the MHDT fleet to(a) FC-MHDT fuel economy; (b) FC-MHDT sales.

excessively high GHG emissions of China's power grid in the

hydrogen storage and transportation link have greatly weak-
ened the emission reduction potential of all hydrogen produc-
tion pathways. With the future reduction of power grid carbon
emissions, the NG hydrogen production technology pathway is
expected as transitional technology to replace the D-MHDT.
Heavy-duty trucks have the potential to maximize GHG emis-
sion reductions, while representative medium-duty trucks have
the highest emission reduction rate, and representative Class 2
light-duty MHDTs are less competitive in both emission re-
ductions and emission reduction rates. Vehicle models have
little impact on GHG emission reduction in regions with rich
renewable resources and by-product hydrogen where storage
and transportation technology are more important factors. In
these regions it is expected that nearly zero GHG emissions can
be achieved in the near future. In other regions, medium-duty
Fig. 10. Comparison with a similar study. MHDTs for NG-based hydrogen production could be used as a
short-term technology option. During the 2030e2040 period,
grid power-based hydrogen pathways will satisfy the conditions
as follows. First, this study fully considers the impact of storage and for promotion.
transportation technologies in the hydrogen supply chain. Second,  Under different FC promotion scenarios, the MHDT fleet is ex-
this study incorporates by-product and NG-based hydrogen when pected to have a 12.1e69.9% GHG emissions decline in 2050.
considering the proportion of technology pathways. Third, oper- However, FC-MHDTs will bring additional GHG emissions if too
ating conditions are considered for the fuel economy of MHDTs aggressively to be promoted nationwide. Therefore, it is sug-
used in this study, especially higher fuel economy of long-haul gested to combine the national energy supply system with
trucks has a particular impact. technological development to comprehensively consider FC-
MHDTs’ widespread promotion strategy and timing.
5. Concluding remarks  Given the weight of key equipment such as battery, FC and
hydrogen tanks, BE-MHDTs will generally have lost over 15% of
Previous studies on the impact of hydrogen on road traffic have cargo capacity, while FC-MHDTs are more economically and
mainly focused on passenger vehicles but rarely on the MHDTs that environmentally feasible because of their much less substantial
account for an increasing proportion of GHG emissions. Existing loss of cargo capacity. Heavy-duty trucks enjoy smaller cargo
studies have primarily compared the effects of different hydrogen capacity losses and greater emission reductions and are worthy
production solutions on the LC GHG emissions of MHDTs. However, of prioritized promotion.
to our knowledge, they have not taken complete account of the
impact of specific MHDT models, all phases of the hydrogen supply There are several limitations in this research, such as data un-
chain, the weight of the vehicle power system, and fuel economy certainty, technology develop trend unclear and the type of truck
parameter sources. For this reason, a localized LCA database for studied is still incomplete, which will be improved in future
China is established in this study. Combined with an analysis of research.
global FC-MHDT vehicle configuration and fuel economy research
principles, a harmonized analysis model is built to quantify the
above four aspects as comprehensively as possible. It is found that: Author statement

Different hydrogen sources produce a considerable impact on Lei Ren: Data curation, Modelling, Writing e original draft. Shen
the environmental benefits of FC-MHDTs. At present, renewable Zhou: Investigation, Validation. Tianduo Peng: Data curation,
electrolysis and by-product hydrogen are the only technologies Validation. Xunmin Ou: Conceptualization, Methodology, Writing
available for cutting GHG emissions by 29.0e52.4%. The e review & editing.

13
L. Ren, S. Zhou, T. Peng et al. Energy 249 (2022) 123628

Declaration of competing interest fleet from diesel and natural gas to hydrogen. Int J Hydrogen Energy
2021;46:17982e97.
[20] Bolat P, Thiel C. Hydrogen supply chain architecture for bottom-up energy
The authors declare that they have no known competing systems models. Part 1: developing pathways. Int J Hydrogen Energy
financial interests or personal relationships that could have 2014;39:8881e97.
appeared to influence the work reported in this paper. [21] Emodi NV, Chaiechi T, Alam Beg ABMR. A techno-economic and environ-
mental assessment of long-term energy policies and climate variability
impact on the energy system. Energy Pol 2019;128:329e46.
Acknowledgments [22] Forsberg J, Krook-Riekkola A. Recoupling climate change and air quality:
exploring low-emission options in urban transportation using the TIMES-city
model. Energies 2021;14:3220.
This work was supported by the National Natural Science [23] Zhang R, Fujimori S, Dai H, Hanaoka T. Contribution of the transport sector to
Foundation of China(72174103). The authors also gratefully climate change mitigation: insights from a global passenger transport model
acknowledge the financial support from the Rio Tinto Group in the coupled with a computable general equilibrium model. Appl Energy
2018;211:76e88.
context of the Tsinghua-Rio Tinto Joint Research Center for Re- [24] Paltsev S, Henry Chen YH, Karplus V, Kishimoto P, Reilly J, Lo €schel A, et al.
sources, Energy and Sustainable Development and the Center for Reducing CO2 from cars in the European union. Transportation 2018;45:
Industrial Development and Environmental Governance of Tsing- 573e95.
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