Write a program to implement Bayesian Network
!pip install pgmpy
import pgmpy.models
import pgmpy.inference
import networkx as nx
import pylab as plt
# Create a bayesian network
model = pgmpy.models.BayesianModel([('Burglary', 'Alarm'),
('Earthquake', 'Alarm'),
('Alarm', 'JohnCalls'),
('Alarm', 'MaryCalls')])
# Define conditional probability distributions (CPD)
# Probability of burglary (True, False)
cpd_burglary = pgmpy.factors.discrete.TabularCPD('Burglary', 2, [[0.001], [0.999]])
# Probability of earthquake (True, False)
cpd_earthquake = pgmpy.factors.discrete.TabularCPD('Earthquake', 2, [[0.002],
[0.998]])
# Probability of alarm going of (True, False) given a burglary and/or earthquake
cpd_alarm = pgmpy.factors.discrete.TabularCPD('Alarm', 2, [[0.95, 0.94, 0.29,
0.001], [0.05, 0.06, 0.71, 0.999]], evidence=['Burglary', 'Earthquake'],
evidence_card=[2, 2])
# Probability that John calls (True, False) given that the alarm has sounded
cpd_john = pgmpy.factors.discrete.TabularCPD('JohnCalls', 2, [[0.90, 0.05], [0.10,
0.95]], evidence=['Alarm'], evidence_card=[2])
# Probability that Mary calls (True, False) given that the alarm has sounded
cpd_mary = pgmpy.factors.discrete.TabularCPD('MaryCalls', 2, [[0.70, 0.01],
[0.30, 0.99]],evidence=['Alarm'], evidence_card=[2])
# Add CPDs to the network structure
model.add_cpds(cpd_burglary, cpd_earthquake, cpd_alarm, cpd_john, cpd_mary)
# Check if the model is valid, throw an exception otherwise
model.check_model()
# Print probability distributions
print('Probability distribution, P(Burglary)')
print(cpd_burglary)
print()
print('Probability distribution, P(Earthquake)')
print(cpd_earthquake)
print()
print('Joint probability distribution, P(Alarm | Burglary, Earthquake)')
print(cpd_alarm)
print()
print('Joint probability distribution, P(JohnCalls | Alarm)')
print(cpd_john)
print()
print('Joint probability distribution, P(MaryCalls | Alarm)')
print(cpd_mary)
print()
# Plot the model
# fig=nx.draw(model, with_labels=True)
#plt.savefig('C:\\DATA\\Python-data\\bayesian-networks\\alarm.png')
#plt.close()
print("the nodes are:",model.nodes)
print("the edgs are:",model.edges)
print(model.get_independencies())
# Perform variable elimination for inference
# Variable elimination (VE) is a an exact inference algorithm in bayesian networks
infer = pgmpy.inference.VariableElimination(model)
# Calculate the probability of a burglary if John and Mary calls (0: True, 1:
False)
posterior_probability = infer.query(['Burglary'], evidence={'JohnCalls': 0,
'MaryCalls': 0})
# Print posterior probability
print('Posterior probability of Burglary if JohnCalls(True) and MaryCalls(True)')
print(posterior_probability)
print()
# Calculate the probability of alarm starting if there is a burglary and an
earthquake (0: True, 1: False)
posterior_probability = infer.query(['Alarm'], evidence={'Burglary': 0,
'Earthquake': 0})
# Print posterior probability
print('Posterior probability of Alarm sounding if Burglary(True) and
Earthquake(True)')
print(posterior_probability)
print()
