STA 1311
POISSON PROBABILTY DISTRIBUTION
The Poisson distribution is a discrete probability distribution for the counts of events that occur
randomly in a given interval of time (or space).
If we let X =The number of events∈a giveninterval ,
Then, if the mean number of events per interval is λ
The probability of observing x events in a given interval is given by
x
−λ λ
P ( X=x ) =e
x!
Note e is a mathematical constant. e=2 :718282. There should be a button on your calculator e x
that calculates powers of e.
If the probabilities of X are distributed in this way, we write
X P ( λ)
λ is the parameter of the distribution. We say X follows a Poisson distribution with parameter λ
Note: A Poisson random variable can take on any positive integer value.
The distribution occurs when the events been counted occur
a) Independently
b) Such that the probability of two or more events occur simultaneously is zero
c) Randomly in space or time
d) Uniformly
Example 1: if the random variable X follows a poisson distribution with mean 3.4, Find the
probability of X =6.
Solution
This can be written more quickly as: If X P ( 3.4 ) . Find P ( X=6 )
Now
6
−λ λ
( )
P X=6 =e
6!
6
−3.4 3.4
P ( X=6 )=(e )
6!
1544.8
¿ 0.0333 ×
720
¿ 0.0716
Example 2: the number of industrial injuries per working week in a particular factory is known
to follow Poisson distribution with mean 0.5. find the Probability that
a) In a particular week, there will be
i. Less than two accidents
ii. More than two accidents
b) In a three week period there will be no accidents
Solution
a) Let X be the number of accidents ∈one week
i. P ( X <2 ) =P ( X ≤ 1 )=P ( X =0 ) + P ( X=1 )
0 1
−λ λ −λ λ
¿e +e
0! 1!
0 1
0.5 0.5
¿(e¿¿−0.5) +(e ¿¿−0.5) ¿¿
0! 1!
−0.5
¿e +0.5 (e ¿¿−0.5)¿
−0.5
¿ 1.5 e
¿ 1.5 ×0.6065
¿ 0.9098
ii. P ( X >2 )
Since P ( X >2 ) =1−P ( X ≤2 )
P ( X ≤2 )=P ( X=2 ) + P ( X =1 ) + P ( X=0 )
0 1 2
−λ λ −λ λ −λ λ
¿e +e +e
0! 1! 2!
0 1 2
0.5 0.5 0.5
¿(e¿¿−0.5) +(e ¿¿−0.5) +(e¿¿−0.5) ¿¿¿
0! 1! 2!
−0.5
¿e +0.5 (e ¿¿−0.5)+ 0.125(e ¿¿−0.5)¿ ¿
¿ 1.625(e¿¿−0.5)¿
¿ 1.625 ×0.6065
P( X ≤ 2)=0.9856
Therefore,
P ( X >2 ) =1−P ( X ≤2 )
¿ 1−0.9856
¿ 0.0144
b) P ( X=0 ) ∈3 weeks
¿ P ( X=0 )∧P ( X =0 )∧P ( X =0 )
¿ P ( X=0 ) × P ( X=0 ) × P ( X=0 )
3
¿ ( P ( X =0 ) )
¿¿¿
¿¿¿
3
¿(e¿¿−0.5) ¿
3
¿ ( 0.6065 ) =0.2231
Mean and Variance of the Poisson distribution: In general, there is a formula for the mean µ
of a Poisson distribution. There is also a formula for the standard deviationσ and variance V
μ= λ also V =λ while σ= √ λ
EXERCISE
1) Births in a hospital occur randomly at an average rate of 1.8 births per hour.
a. What is the probability of observing 4 births in a given hour at the hospital?
b. What about the probability of observing more than or equal to 2 births in a given hour at
the hospital?
Ans=( a ) 0.0723 ( b ) 0537
2) A shop sells a particular make of video recorder. If the weekly demand for the video recorder
is a Poisson variable with mean equal to 3, find the probability that the shop sells
a. Atleast 3 in a week
b. At most 7 in a week
c. More than 20 in a month (4 weeks)
Ans=( a ) 0.5768 , ( b ) 0.9881 , ( c ) 0.0116
