Course Title: Business Statistics I
Solutions Tutorial # 4
Probability
Exercise #1
a. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive
b. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
c. mutually exclusive and not collectively exhaustive
d. mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive
Exercise #2
a. 𝐶26 = 15
𝐶13 ∗𝐶13
b. = 0.6
𝐶26
Exercise #3
𝐶620 = 38760 possible groups of 6.
Exercise #4
A: American has flown in an airplane at least once → P(A)=0.47
B: Americans has ridden on a train at least once→ P(B)=0.28
General addition rule:
P(A or B)= P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B)
Events A and B are not mutually exclusive → we can’t assume that P(A and B)=0
Thus this problem is not solvable.
Exercise #5
A: U.S. household with television has cable TV→ P(A)=0.67
B: U.S. household with television has two or more TV sets → P(B)=0.74
P(A and B)=0.55
a. P(A or B)=P(A)+P(B)-P(A and B) =0.86
b. P(A or B)-P(A and B)=0.31
c. P(A’ and B’)=1-P(A or B)=0.14
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d. We can’t apply the special law of addition not apply to this problem because A and B
are not Mutually Exclusive events.
Exercise #6
X: American adult is a stockholder→ P(X)=0.43
Y: American adult has some college education→ P(Y)=0.37
75% of all American adult stockholders have some college education → P(Y/X)=0.75
a. P(X’)=1-P(X)=0.57
57% of American Adults do not own stock.
b. General Law of Multiplication
P(X and Y)=P(Y/X)*P(X)=0.3225
c. P(X or Y)=P(X)+P(Y)-P(X and Y)=0.4775
d. P(X’ and Y’)=1-P(X or Y)=0.5225
e. P(X’ or Y’)= P(X’)+P(Y’)-P(X’ and Y’)=0.6775
f. P(Y and X’)=P(Y/X’)*P(X’)
=[1-P(Y’/X’)]*P(X’)
𝑃(𝑋 ′ 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑌 ′ )
=[1 − ] ∗ 𝑃(𝑋 ′ )
𝑃(𝑋 ′ )
=0.0475
Or we can use the Probability Matrix
X
Yes No
Y Yes P(Y and X)=0.3225 P(Y and X’)=0.0475 P(Y)=0.37
No P(Y’ and X)=0.1075 P(Y’ and X’)=0.5225 P(Y’)=0.63
P(X)=0.43 P(X’)=0.57 1
Exercise #7
E: Economy is a challenge for growth→ P(E)=0.46
Q: Finding qualified workers is a challenge for growth→ P(Q)=0.37
P(E and Q)=0.15
𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)
a. P(E/Q)= = 0.4054
𝑃(𝑄)
𝑃(𝐸 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝑄)
b. P(Q/E)= = 0.3261
𝑃(𝐸)
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𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸′) 𝑃(𝑄)−𝑃(𝑄 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐸) 0.22
c. P(Q/E’)= = = 0.54 = 0.4074
𝑃(𝐸′) 𝑃(𝐸 ′ )
Probability Matrix
Q
Yes No
E Yes P(E and Q)=0.15 P(E and Q’)=0.31 P(E)=0.46
No P(E’ and Q)=0.22 P(E’ and Q’)=0.32 P(E’)=0.54
P(Q)=0.37 P(Q’)=0.63 1
d. P(Q’ and E’)=P(E’)- P(E’ and Q)=0.32
Exercise #8
H: Accountant purchases his computer hardware by mail order direct→ P(H)=0.37
S: Accountant purchases his computer software by mail order direct→ P(S)=0.54
P(S/H)=0.97
a. P(S’/H)=1-P(S/H)=0.03
𝑃(𝑆 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐻 ′ ) 0.1811
b. P(S/H’)= = = 0.2874
𝑃(𝐻 ′ ) 0.63
Probability Matrix
H
Yes No
S Yes P(S and H)=0.3589 P(S and H’)=0.1811 P(S)=0.54
No P(S’ and H)=0.0111 P(S’ and H’)=0.4489 P(S’)=0.46
P(H)=0.37 P(H’)=0.63 1
c. P(H’/S)=0.3353
d. P(H’/S’)=0.9758
Exercise #9
A: machine A production→ P(A)=0.1
B: machine B production→ P(B)=0.4
C: machine C production→ P(C)=0.5
D: Defective product
P(D/A)=0.05; P(D/B)=0.12; P(D/C)=0.08
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𝑃(𝐴 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ A)∗P(A)
Revised Probability: P(A/D)= = = 0.0538
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)
Total probability formula:
P(D)= P(D and A) +P(D and B)+ P(D and C)
= [P(D/ A)*P(A)]+ [P(D/ B)*P(B)]+ [P(D/ C)*P(C)]
=0.093
𝑃(𝐵 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ B)∗P(B)
Revised Probability: P(B/D)= = = 0.5161
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)
𝑃(𝐶 𝑎𝑛𝑑 𝐷) P(D/ C)∗P(C)
Revised Probability: P(C/D)= = = 0.4301
𝑃(𝐷) 𝑃(𝐷)
