BUS lace aWate TATE Ele te Keele ec) 4 Let Donald Trump's lead with one year to go |X OL 0) 8X0) 008 0c) MllerWHAT DO THEY SEEK? Explorers, adventurers, scientists. Men and women who always broadened the horizons, for all humankind to share, Rolex was at their side when they reached the deepest point in the oceans, the highest summits of the Earth, the deepest jungles and both poles. But now that we know, more than ever, that our world has its limits, why do they continue to venture out there, again and again? Certainly not for kudos, accolades, or an ephemeral record, What they truly seek is to understand more intimately how complex and delicate our planet is, to document its change and how together, we can affect it for the better. So as long as they need it, we will be at their side. Because today, the real discovery is not so much about finding new lands. It’s about looking with new eyes at the marvels of ‘our planet, rekindling our sense of wonder, and acting to preserve our pale blue dot in the universe Doing our very best for a Perpetual Planet. #Perpetual i W nota (OLX, + ROLEXREPUBLIQUE FRANCAISE VICTOR “dal BANYAMA clei choosefrance.fr CHOOSE FRANCE a 4 5Contents Onthe cover Why America must understand China's weaknesses as well as, its strengths: leader, page 1. ‘The People's Liberation Army is not yet as formidable asthe West fears, argues Jeremy Page. See our special report ‘after page 40. China's dispute with the Philippines isa test of ‘America asan ally: Chaguan, page 37. Anthony Albanese, ‘Australia’s prime minister, takes atrip to Beljing: Banyan, page 33 ‘The omnistaris born How artificial inteligence will transform fame:leader, page 2, and briefing, page, Disney's problems are as much about leadership as strategy: ‘Schumpeter, page 60 Inpraise of daredevil ‘economies Palitcians can make their countries richer—ifthey are willing to take risks, page és Donald Trump's lead with one year to golf Americas presidential election were held ‘tomorrows he would probably win, page, However, Demacrats ate giddy from this, week's electoral sweep, page 22 New for investors: the s& 493 Ifyou wish to know America’s stockmarket, forget the s&p 500: Buttonwood, pag > Thedigital element ofyour subscription means that you can search our archive, read al of our daily journalism and listen ro audio versions of our stories. Vist economist.com. ‘The world this week 4 A summary of political ~ and business news Leaders 1 Geopolitics How scary is China? 12 Technology and celebrity The omnistarisborn 1 Italy's constitution ‘Mother of all powergrabs 1 Britain's Parliament lawmakers 14 Coping with migration Open, but orderly Housebuying in America The great realtor racket Letters 46 On leaders and managers, Colombia, health-care costs, the British pint, being rich Briefing 18 The future of celebrity andid it my way ‘Special report: China's armed forces Unknown soldiers After page 40 @ Bartleby if teams really matter so much, why do firmsstillfocuson individuals? Page sa aN United states 21 oneyearout 2 State Democrats 23 The clapisback 34 scomusand guns 24 Growing calfomia 2 Renaming landmarks 26 Chicago's immigration ~ backlash The Americas 27 Nicolis Maduro’ gamble 28 llega gold 2g Suicide in Uruguay Asia 430 India’s north 31 Narendra Modi’ big bung B Japanand the Philippines 32 North Korean diplomacy 33 Banyan Austaliaand china China 134 The “toilet evolution 35 Gay rights in Hong Kong 36 Xi view of women 37 Chaguan A South China * Seastand-off 38 Migration ina mess » Contents continues overleafMiddle East & Africa 41 Israel's window of ~ legitimacy 43 Graphic detail Gaza goes dark 44 Thesuffering of Gaza ‘44 Adeadly missile race 45 South Africa's chicken market 46 Africa's “white gold” rush Europe 47 Germany's queasy Christian Democrats 48 Kherson one year on ‘49 Antisemitism in France 50 Charlemagne the fear ~ ofthe smalls Britain 51 Bad laws 54 Bagehot ‘Homes Under thettammer 55 The new surveillance capitalism |56 India's unusual 1p0 boom ‘57 The waning powerof founders 58 WeWork’s downfall 59 Bartleby Managing teams 60 Schumpeter ger v Peltz 6 a 6 64 ss 6 o cy oo eo a _ B B “ 18 Aishedane Sperber sep Satrerponsnie SSeparbanecaatmen roe tsisn anintrg ‘nto rom oeamstcom fon ‘Marwanger popes Finance & economics Daredevil economics Financial diplomacy Bad carloans Buttonwood The sk» 493 Inefficientindustry ‘The Chinese yuan Free exchange In praise of ‘America’s car addiction Science & technology Microbiome medicine ‘Tunnel-fighting tech Sailing’s speed record Culture Literary estates Censored art ‘A murdered Maltese journalist New French fiction Indian cowboys Online influencers Economie & financial indi Obituary Tonnage acto eet ymarsomahrasanaas scat ‘cragaudated ane cone (itreleon don andi sberbedenewaterhebpae Scone Geman aco an mb Oh Na Yrs ones Soa ed Shag, spre a Wehr Se Limam bec en 963 jeators Qeyde 76 Statistics on 42 economies {78 David Kitke, the world’s frst bungee-jumper VN PERC fresscettertyre“IN CREATING AND RECREATING BEAUTY, NO DETAIL IS EVER TOO SMALL." | zARiAFoRNAN, WEARS THE wc *k ONE OF VACHERON CONSTANTIN | Not MANy. GENEVE® The world this week Politics Israel said that its soldiers ‘were operating in the “heart” ‘of Gaza city, where itbelieves Hamas's underground head- (quarters are located. Yoav Gallant, Israel's defence min- ister, sai that Yahya Sinwar, the head of Hamas in Gaza, had been isolated in hisbunker (though he did not say where) Binyamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, said that Israel would be responsi- ble for Gaza's security foran indefinite period after the war, ‘The next day Antony Blinken, America’s secretary of state, said that after the warGaza and the West Bank should be unified under the control of the Palestinian Authority (ea), MrBlinken sought to persuade Mr Netanyahu to Agree toa humanitarian pause. ‘The American diplomat met ‘Mahmoud abbas, the pre dentof the pa, who demanded an immediate ceasefire. Amer: ican warplanes struck a weap- ‘ons depotin Syria used by iran. ‘More than 10,500 Palestin- ians, including 4,300 children, have been killed in the month- ong war, according to Gaza’s Hamas-run health ministry Civilians continued to flee from the north of the enclave where the fightingis fiercest. ‘year out from America’s, presidential election, Democrats triumphed in several state races. They took full controlof the General ‘Assembly in Virginia, and in Kentucky Andy Beshear was re-elected as governor. Voters in Ohio passed a constitution- alamendmentto guarantee abortion access. Donald Trump lashed out at hisaccusers ina civil fraud trialin New York. Ina four hourtestimony the former president disputed claims that he had deceived banks in his realestate dealings. In September he was found liable for fraud; the trial will determine his punishment. Separately, Mr Trump skipped the third debate of Republican presidential hopefuls, Russia launched its biggest drone attack on Ukraine in weeks, targeting infrastructure in the country’s west and south, also struck homes in Kharkiv, the second-largest city, and a civilian ship in Odessa, on the Black Sea, VolodymyrZelensky, Ukraine's president, warned that Russia ‘was ramping up its attacks ahead of the winter. ‘Themorethe merrier ‘The European Union's exec tive recommended opening accession talks with Ukraine and Moldova when the bloc’s leaders next meet in mid- December. Ukraine, which was granted candidate status after itwas invaded by Russia last yeas, was lauded for its reforms, The r’s annual enlargement reportalso flagged some remaining pro- blems with corruption and the ‘mistreatment of minorities Antonio Costa, Portugal's prime ministersince 2015, resigned after police searched his residence and detained his chiefof staff, as partofa corruption probe. The investigation istooking into lithium mines anda green- hydrogen plant, which Mr Costa's Socialist government has enthusiastically endorsed Poland’s president, Andrzej Duda, gave the right-wing prime minister, Mateusz ‘Morawiecki, the first shot at forming a government after his party, Law and Justice, came firstina general election in October. Mr Morawiecki is unlikely to sueceed. The liberal ‘opposition has the numbers in parliament to rule in coalition, s0 Mr Duda’s move will merely delay the handover of power. ‘Turkey's opposition replaced its long-time leader, Kemal Kiliedarogly, halfa yearafter he lostthat country's presi- sential and parliamentary elections. The cH's new head, ‘Ozgur Ozel, promised to shake up its “passive polities” before local elections early next year, In asign of warming relations, Anthony Albanese visited China. He was the first Australian prime minister to do so in seven years. Tensions had mounted over Chinese tariffs on Australian goods. Mr Albanese, who tookoffice last year, has slightly softened his country’s hawkish stance towards its biggest trade partner. He said talks with Xi Jinping, the Chinese president, yielded “significant progress" Amonth of electionsinwhich nearly one-sixth of India’s voters will pick representa tives in five states kicked off with voting in Chhattisgarh, and Mizoram. The polls arean early test for Narendra Modi India's popular prime min- ister, who wants to win third term in next year's election, Nepal's worst earthquake since 2015 killed at least57 people. The 6.4-magnitude ‘quake struck shortly before ‘midnight on Friday. Around 4,000 homes were damaged or destroyed in the districts of ukum and Jajarkot ‘The UN said that the cultiva- tion of opium poppies in Afghanistan, until recently the world’s biggest producer, had dropped by 95% sincethe Taliban government banned the crop in April 2022, Paper refuses ink Chile's president, Gabriel Boric, has calleda referendum on another new constitution toreplace the country’s char- ter. In September Chileans rejected a radical left-wing proposal; next month they will considera conservative con: tution that includes a total ban on abortion. Polls suggest voters will sink the second attempt, too. ‘The Economist Novernber nth 2023 ‘Mediators failed to get the two sidesin Sudan's civil war toagree toa ceasefire. The fighting has forced millions from their homesand sparked extreme violence. Dozens of un peacekeepers have been injured inattacks ontheir convoysas they were withdrawing from northern Mali, The un mission also destroyed equipment that could not safely be withdrawn after Mali ordered it to leave by theend of theyear while also denying its requests to provide airsupport for the withdrawal Charles ML delivered his est King'sSpeech atthe official state opening of Britain's Parliament. Theaddress laid ‘out the Conservative govern= ment’sagenda forthe last full Parliamentary year before the general election. The pro posed bills includea phased ban on cigarettes, tougher sentences for serious crimi- nals and expanded drilling for and gas in the North Sea, Britaincriminalised the pos- session of laughing gas—the third-most populardrug, among young people in the ‘country. Users could face two years in jal. Prolonged use of nitrous oxide can cause nerve ‘damage. The gas's medical and culinary uses, to dull pain and whip cream respectively, ‘will eemain legal Rain and drought dragged down this year’s global wine production toa six-decade ow, and 79 below last year’s harvest, the International Organisation of Vineand ‘Wine estimated. France overtooktltaly as the world’s largest winemaker.The world this week Business ‘WeWork filed a long-awaited bankruptcy petition, complet ing its dramatic fall from grace, In January 2019 the office= sharing company was valued at $a7bn; itis now worth roughly 0.% of that. The peti- tion is limited tothe firm's locations in Americaand Canada, and its franchisees willcontinue to operate. ‘American employers created 450,000 obs in October, fewer than the market had expected and barely half the number for the previous month. Despite hawkish talk from officals at the Federal Reserve and other central banks, investors took that asa signal that interest rates may fall sooner than they had previously thought. ‘Government-bond yields Teen 2085% a Ha Lower interest-rate expecta- tions led bond yields to fall. That was true not justin Amer- ica, where the ten-year Treasu= ry Yield recently touched 5% and is now 4.59, but alsoin Britain, Japan and much of Europe. Aftera miserable few months, American shares ended their losing streakand surged, with the benchmark ‘S&P 500 index posting its best ‘week since November 2022, ‘The Praised its forecasts for China's Gor growth to 5.4% in 2023 and 4.6% in2024, up from 5% and 4.2% respective ly. The fund cited unexpected ly good third-quarter growth and government stimulus. Nevertheless, China's econ- ‘omy facesa multitude of threats, Falling pork prices, which weigh heavily on its consuumer-priceindex, have pushed the economy back into deflation. And not ll the government's actions are Supportive. Reports suggest it has detained two more busi- nessmen:Zhao Bingxian, prominent investor, and Chen Shaojie, atech founder. Back on the market ‘Turkey borrowed §2.sbn on the dollarbond market, ints first such deal since Apr Investors are more inclined to Tend toa government thathas shaken up its economic team and begun to ditch unorthodox policies, such as keeping {interest rates low despite extreme inflation. The five- year “sukuk” bond was sold witha yield of 5%, Carlyle, a private-equity giant, reported a disappointing set of results for the thied quarter Investors have committed less capital than it had hoped to its new buy-out funds. In the three months to September they attracted $6.3bn of new assets, an 3% decline from the previous quarter. The firm is shedding jobs and has warned staff that “every single expense ison the table: KR, a competitorof Carlyle, was much more upbeat. It reported an improvement in fundraising during the third guarter, to more than $igbn, and announced the launch of new buy-out funds in America and Asia. kkR's share price finished results day 5% higher than itstarted Going by its share price, uss also recorded good results, despite reporting its first quarterly loss since 207. Investors were ina forgiving ‘mood because the loss derived from the costs of integrating Credit Suisse, another swiss bank that uns bought earlier this year. (Without these, the bank would have made a pre- {ax profitof $844m.) The deal is nonetheless likely to provide big ilip co Uas's wealth- ‘management business in the Jongrun. Its investment- division, meanwhile, joined many ofits European peers in reporting adisap- pointing quarter. It lost $230m. Saudi Aramco followed sever alotherbig oil companies by reporting bumper earnings. It ‘made $32.6bn in netprofitin the three months to Septem= ber, exceedinganalysts'fore- casts, That was more than it :madein the previous quarter, but 23% less than inthe third quarter of 2022, after energy prices rocketed in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. Saudi Arabia, like otherorec countries, iseurrently cutting crude-oil production in an attempt to boost its price ‘The Economist Novernber nth 2023 Disney announced thatitwill ceuta farther $2bn from its annual expenses, having already committed to $5 sbn of ccutsand 8,000 job losses catlier this year. Under pres sure from Nelson Peltz, an activist investor, itexpects to start paying a dividend by the end of 2023 forthe frst time in years, and for its streaming business to become profitable inthe second half of 2024 Giveme warp speed, Mr Sulu Foronly the second timesince itwas founded in 2009, Uber made an operating profit, of ‘394m. In the same quarter last year, the ride-hailing ‘company made aloss of S49sm. Sincethen, theaverage number of trips customers have booked perday has risen bby 25%, to 27m, and the firm's revenue has grown by n%,t0 {$9.3bn, Uber's share price has doubled since the start of 2023, Sac-ArTRa, the Hollywood actors’ union, voted to end its, nf-day strike after agreeing on tentative deal with produc- ers. Together with another strike, byscreenwriters, the shutdown has delayed the felease of major films uch, as avengers: The kang Dynasty’, "Dune: Part Two" and “Paddington in Peru’ ‘Look ar DoNALD TRUM! WITH ALL AIS BAGGAGE, ‘HERES NO WAY He BEATS |] SOE BIDEN [80 YEARS 01D /7 ET mipputexst cos UKRAINE /RUSSIA ponsORACLE Rei | Business Grows Here Vol melolama Ciel mlm ale 16-8 you don’t know your business. » NetSuite provides one system to grow your business so you can make better decisions, faster. With our #1 cloud ERP, you gain visibility across financials, inventory, CRM, HR, and more. Join the 36,000+ companies growing on NetSuite DT Rael uy -ae) @ scan MELeaders How scary is China? America must understand China's weaknesses as wellas its strengths HEN JOE BIDEN meets Xi Jinping in San Francisco next Week, the stakes will be high. Fighting in the Middle East threatens to become another theatre for great-power rivalry, with America backing Israel, and China (along with Russia) ‘deepening links to ran. In theSouth China Sea, China isharass- ing Philippine ships and flying its planes dangerously close to American ones (see Chaguan). Next year will test Sino-American relations even more. In January a candidate despised by Beijing ‘may win Taiwan's presidential lection. For most of the year, the race for the White House will bea cacophony of China-bashing, ‘America’s anti-China fervour is partly an overcorrection for its previous complacency about the economic, military and ideological threat the autocratic giant poses. The danger from China is real, and there are many areas where Mr Biden's admin- istration should stand up to its Communist rulers, But there is also a risk that America's view of Chinese power slides into car~ icature, triggering confrontations and, at worst, an avoidable conflict. Even without war, that rush would incur huge econom= ic costs, split America from its allies and undermine the values that make it strong, Instead, America needs a sober assessment ‘ot just of China's strengths, but also of its weaknesses. What are those weaknesses? Among the least understood are its military shortcomings, which we describe in a special report ‘on the People's Liberation Army (PLA). After de cades of modernisation, itis formidable—terti- fying, even. With 2m personnel and an annual budget of $2250n, it has the world's biggest ar- my and navy and a vast missile force. By 2030 it could have 1,000 nuclear warheads. Mr Xi has ordered it to be capable of invading Taiwan by 22027, say America’s spies. And the PLA projects force more widely, too, t intimidates China's neighbours in the South China Sea and skirmishes with India. It hhas a base in Africa and is seeking one in the Middle East. Yet look more closely and the problems leap out. Drilled for, decades on Soviet and then Russian military dogma, the PLA is trying to absorb the lessons from Ukraine and to co-ordinate “joint” operations between services, which would be key to any successful invasion of Taiwan, Recruitment is hard. Despite the efforts of films such as "Wolf Warrior” to glamorise dreary mili tary careers with mediocre pay, the PLA struggles to hire skilled people, from fighter pilots to engineers. Ithas almost no experi- tence of combat—Mr Xi calls this "the peace disease’. Its most deadly engagement in the past four decades or so was massa- ring its own citizens around Tiananmen Square in 1989. Although China has made technological leaps, from hyper sonic missiles to stealth fighters, its military-industrial com- plex trails behind in areas such as engines for aireraftand ships, and still relies on some foreign parts. American embargoes on ‘semiconductors and components could make it harder to catch up with the global technological frontier. Despite Mr Xi'sendless purges, corruption appears to be pervasive. It may explain why General Li Shangfu was sacked as China's defence minister this, year after only a few months in the job. China's military frailties exist alongside its better-known ‘economic ones. A property crunch and the Communist Party's growing hostility towards the private sector and foreign capital are impeding growth. China's cpp will increase by'5.4% this year and by only 3.5% in 2028, says the IMF. Investment by multina~ tional firms into China turned negative in the third quarter, for the first time since records began in 1998. China’s $18trn econ- omy is big. But despite ts much larger population, its GDP is un- likely to exceed America’s by much or at all by mid-century. Behind China's military and economic weaknesses lies a third, and deeper problem: Mr Xi’s dominance of an authoritar- ian system that no longer allows serious internal policy debate. Decision-making is deteriorating asa result. Economic techno- cats have been sidelined by loyalists. By one estimate, PLA ‘oops spend a quarter of their time on political education, por- ing over such inspiring works as “Xi Jinping Thought on Strengthening the Military”. MrX's ideology is thatthe party ed by him, should command all things, always. Personalised rule is bad for China—and perilous for the world. Lacking sound advice, MrXi might miscalculate, as Viadi- mir Putin did on Ukraine. However, he may be deterred by the knowledge that if he invades Taiwan but fails to conquer it, he could lose power. One thing is clear: despite periodic and wel- come bouts of constructive diplomacy, such as recently re- sumed ministerial contacts with America, Mr Xi's commitment to undermining liberal values globally will not diminish, How should America respond? Judiciously. ‘Trying to cripple China's economy by isolating it could cut global pp by 7%, reckons the IMF. Closing America’s borders to Chinese talent would count as self-sabotage. Any excessively hawkish policy risks dividing America’s net- work of alliances. Worst of all, to rapid an American military escalation could provokea disastrous war if MrXi mistakes it for the prelude to American aggression, or worries that unifying Taiwan with the mainland—peacefully or by force—will only grow harder should he continue to bide his time. From complacency to confrontation to calibration Instead, America needs to calibrate its China policy for the long, run, Regarding the economy, that means openness, not isola- tion. The Economist supports limited controls on exports of tech- nology with possible military applications, but not the broad embrace of tariffs and industrial policy that began under Presi- dent Donald Trump and has continued under Mr Biden. To ‘maintain its economic and technological edge, America should stay open for business—unlike China, Militarily, America should seek deterrence but not domina- tion. The Biden administration has rightly sold more arms to Taiwan, built up forces in Asia and renewed defence alliances there, But America should avoid a nuclear arms race or being seen to support formal independence for Taiwan. Dealing with China requiresa realistic view ofits capabilities. The good news isthat its weaknesses and Mr Xi's mistakes give the West time to counter the threat it poses. a2 Leaders The Economist November nth 2023, Technology and celebrity The omnistar is born How artificial intelligence will transform fame OMPUTERS HAVE spent decades disrupting humdrum jobs, Now artificial intelligence (a1) is coming for the most glam- ‘orous ones. Hollywood has been ata standstill for half the year, until studios agreed on November sth to offer striking stars pro- tection from robotic rivals. Living artists were nudged down this ‘week's music charts by a dead Beatle, resurrected by Al. Actors like Scarlett Johansson and authors like John Grisham are suing, tech firms over the unauthorised use oftheir image and words, Stars may worry that Al is stealing their work and giving less talented performers the skills to snatch their audience. In fact, the famous folk complaining the loudest about the new technol ‘ogy are theones who stand to benefit the most. Far from diluting, star power, at will make the biggest celebrities bigger than ever, by allowing them to beinall markets, in all formats, atall times, Put your hands together—or insert your earplugs if you prefer— forthe rise of theomnistar. ‘This is nor the first time that technology has changed the rules of the fame game. People began to talk of stars in the 18th century, after the spread of reading made it possible to be truly famous within your lifetime. Film and radio initially seemed like a threat to stats, who worried that their live performances ‘would be devalued. Infact, those technologies ushered in the era of the superstar, aterm that caught on in the 1920s. A similar panic greeted the invention of television (and led tothe last big Hollywood strike, in 960). But again, the new tech made the famous even more so, bringing them into every living room, By the 1960s people were talking of megastars. As Al-generated content floods into the en- tertainment business, the hardworking folk of Malibu are worrying once more that their fame will be diluted—and again, the outcome is like ly tobe the opposite. One of the paradoxes of the internet age is that, even as uploads to YouTube, TikTok and the like have ereat- ced avast “long tail” of uset-made content, the biggest hits by the biggest artists have become even bigger. The number of musi- 14 Leaders sions by 2050 became law in 2039 after only 90 minutes’ debate inthe Commonsandl without a vote among MPS. ‘This is objectionable in principle. Scholars have long argued that Britain's parliamentary system leaves the legislature at risk of being ridden over roughshod by the executive. And itis bad in practice, too, Drafting errors are on the rise; impact assessments ‘of laws’ expected costs and benefits are frequently cosmetic or missing altogether. Rushed legislation is invariably bad legisla~ tion. Take Boris Johnson's windfall tax on the oil-and-gas indus- tty, which was driven through the Commons in a day and con- tained several big design flaws, Or Liz Truss's law to cap energy prices—similarly hasty and similarly sloppy. Giving ministers ‘so much latitude to make amendments fuels uncertainty ‘This malaise strengthens the case for constitutional reform, Proportional representation would end one-party dominance of the Commons; an elected House of Lords would havea powerful mandate to halt badly drafted bills. But neither looks likely and both would entail profound changes in acountry heartily sick of upheaval. Moreover, since the Lords is one ofthe few bits of Par~ iament still trying to do its job of fine-grained scrutiny, empty- ing the place risks being counterproductive. ‘So simpler and quicker reforms should come first. Some are changes to process. Bill committees are meant to undertake line-by-line scrutiny of laws, but they are ad hoc and controlled by party whips. Putting them on a standing status, and picking their members by a secret ballot of MPs, would give them clout The Economist November nth 2023, and independence. The Commons should require all non-ut- sent bills to be published in draft form to iron out glitches and help ensure that policy ideas are fully developed. A Statutory In- struments Act should lay out principles for the use of primary and secondary legislation, and impose tighter scrutiny on regu- lations made under Henry VIII clauses. Other reforms should take aim at the people who make laws. Although it isa virtue of democracy that MPs are generalists, am- ateurism goes oo far. MPs should beemploying or commission- ing experts in policy but their feeble budgets support only four full-time assistants;a representative to Congress in America can employ up to18 full-time staff. The House of Lords would have greater clout if membership were no longer a bauble for party cronies; a strengthened appointments process could require nominees to meeta test of "conspicuous merit” Fetes accomplies But these changes can do only so much. The decline of patl ‘mentary scrutiny reflects a malaise in British political cultuce. ‘The cabinet should recognise that properly scrutinised legisla tion serves the country’s needs better than showy, rushed law- making, Above all, MPs must remember that their primary con- stitutional function is not to attend village fetes and glad-hand constituents, but to be national legislators. This week's rituals were designed to signify that Parliament is sovereign, It should use that powerto fix itself. Migration Open, but orderly ‘More welcoming migration policies are possible only if borders are more secure AST YEAR rich countries accepted over 6m permanent immi- sgrants, the highest figure on record. They also registered over 2m applications for asylum. Such numbers are neither unman- ageable nor unreasonable, adding up to 0.6% of the receiving ‘countries’ population. The rich world needs immigrants to fill ‘gaps in its ageing labour markets: nearly three-quarters of per= ‘manent migrants work. And migrants benefit hugely from mov ing—otherwise they would notleave. But there isa whiff of panic (on both sides of the Atlantic, as voters fret about the growing, ‘numbers of people crossing their borders with- ‘out permission, and politicians vow to get ‘New asylum applications, m free movement, millions more would arrive than rich-country voters are willing to accept. In the real world, the chance of get- tinga visa isso remote that many claim asylum instead. ‘This is not what the asylum system was designed for. Govern- ‘ments in the rich world have struggled to process floods of asy- lum claims speedily or faitly and the issue has become political- ly toxic. Voters detest the notion of disorder on their borders; they want their governments to be in control of who arrives. When they think the borders are secure, however, voters are of- ten more welcoming, In Australia, an island with a fierce deportation policy for people ar= tough (see International section) ‘tcDennte ma riving without permission, 9% of the popula- Im the United States President Joe Biden is 2 ion ate foreign-born, compared with 14% in addingto Donald Trump's border wall, and ov- Buy], the United states. In Canada (which shares no fernors are vying to bus irregular migrants to WY) | border with a poor country) the foreign-born other states. In Europe asylum-seeker numbers 4 share is 23% and, despite a recent pushback, arethehighesttheyhavebeen since thecrisisof me" am” ——_votersare largely pro-immigration, 2015-16, and Italy has just announced a deal with Albania to process asylum claims offshore in a vague ar- rangement that Albania’s prime minister himself said would not ‘work. Under pressure from a resurgent far right, the German government has said it plans to explore something similar, and pledged to slash benefits for asylum-seekers, Rich countries are attractive places: peaceful, orderly and, ‘obviously, rich. Incomes in the European Union are 12 times higher than in sub-Saharan Africa. Small wonder so many peo- ple want to move from poor countries to rich ones. Ina world of ‘As Canada and Australia have grown, the u's working-age population fell by 5m in the decade to 2021. ‘The demographic crunch is less severe in America, but more so in Japan and South Korea. An obvious way to tackle looming, shortages of young workers in rich countries would be to let in ‘more immigrants. But for this to be politically feasible, they would need to be admitted through regular, visible channels. ‘That means, fora start, imposing some discipline on the asylum, system. Not, assomeon the right suggest, by scrapping the Refu- gee Convention, the international agreement that binds signa- >‘The Economist November nth 2023, » tories to provide refuge to those fleeing from a credible risk of persecution. Nothing better would replaceit. But it isreasonable for governments to discourage abuses of the system. So they should process claims quickly, and accelerate the re- moval of those whose applications fail. There is no fundamental reason why claims should not be heard offshore, before the ‘would-be asylum-secker sets foot in the destination country. Canada takes large numbers of refugees directly from camps in Africa, for example. However, deals like the one Italy is pursuing, ‘with Albania, and Britain has attempted with Rwanda, are often badly administered and subject to legal challenge. So rich coun- ties will still have to beef up their domestic asylum systems. ‘They should increase their support for countries that host large numbers of refugees, such as Colombia, Pakistan and Turkey. Countries from which a lot of asylum-seekers come will also need incentives to take them back. All this will require patience Leaders and diplomatic agility, which today are often lacking [As they crack down on those who migrate without permis sion, governments should widen opportunities for people to move legally. They could expand legal pathways for countries that take back failed asylum-seekers, or use a points system to help with selection. They could focus on specific sectors, such as construction of tech, offer more visas to seasonal workers on farms or in hotels, and attract more students. Scholars disagree as to how much expanding legal migration cuts the illegal sort, but it brings huge benefits for the migrants and big ones for the host country, especially if policies encourage migrants to work. ‘Migration cannot be managed perfectly, but it can be man- aged better. By demonstrating that they control their borders, governments may ear themselves political space to open the gates alittle wider, without losing elections to those who would slam them tightly shut, Housebuy America The great realtor racket I's time to take a wrecking ball to commissions on American homes EATH, TAXES and extortionate realtors’ fees: for decades these have been the three grim certainties of American life, and one of them is avoidable. Every timea home changes hands, realtors (known as estate agents in Britain) charge a staggering 5-6%6 ofits value, two or three times more than they can get away with in any other rich country. As the internet has allowed ‘would-be buyers to browse properties from a sofa, agents’ fees have tumbled elsewhere—but not in America, where they have been set in concrete for nearly a century, Why? (On October 31st a court in Missouri gave the obvious answer: because of anticompetitive practices. Ruling on a class-action lawsuit, a jury found the National Association of Realtors (NAR) and a handful of large real-estate brokers guilty of conspiring to keep commissions high. They awarded homesellers $188bn in damages. Itsa start. A similar class-action suit in tllinois will probably be decided next year. America’s De- partment of Justice is investigating the indus- try. The plaintiffs in the Missouri suit have al- ready filed another suit against another group of brokers. More copycat suits are likely to fol- low. Analysts think damages could reach $4oobn. Share prices of listed real-estate bro- kkers have dropped sharply. Bob Goldberg, the boss of the NaR, said he would retire early. ‘The current rip-off works like this. The NaR has onginsisted that any agent who lists a home for sale on a database called a “multiple listing service” must offer to split the commission equally with the agent who brings the eventual buyer to the property. Sellers are often told that if they do not offer the going, rate, of 2.5-3% for the buyer's agent, no one will show up. They havea point: academics have found evidence that buyers’ agents “steer” them away from low-commission properties. Buyers are told they need not worry about the fee paid to their agent, be- ‘cause the other guy is paying it. This is nonsense. Either the fat fee inflates the house price, o the buyer ends up payinga simi- lar fee when he or she sells. In other industries technology has eliminated middlemen (when did you last call a travel agent?) or squeezed their fees (think of tracker funds for stocks). In American property excess profits have attracted excess workers. America has roughly 3.5m realtors, about as many as it has primary-school teachers, They sell 6m homes a year. Relative tothe number of deals, Britain has a fifthas many estate agents, Previous attempts to shake things up have hit a brick wall Firms like Zillow, an online platform which lists homes forsale, ‘once feuded with the NaR over access to information. At times Zillow and other real-estate tech platforms looked like threats to the status quo. But ultimately they found it more lucrative to be- come part ofthe existing arrangements. Zillow now makes most ofits revenues from fees paid by agents who get referrals from its platform. ‘The judge in Missouri has yet to rule on spe- cific anticompetitive practices that might be banned in light of the jury’s finding, but he could set standards nationwide. Commissions could be “unbundled, with buyers and sellers each paying their own agents, as early as next year. Keefe, Bruyette & Woods, aresearch group, estimates that this would cut 30% off agents! Sioobn-a-year commissions pool. ‘The benefits of encouraging more competition would be huge. Obscene commissions gobble up families’ nest-eggs. In 2019 a paper from the Brookings Institution, a think-tank, found that realtor fees consumed a quarter of the capital gains earned in anaverage home sale. High fees also trap people in unsuitable housing and discourage them from moving, even when they might earn more elsewhere. This makes America less mobile, less dynamic and less rich than it otherwise would be, For yeats trustbusters in America have been chasing cases against big tech, an industry where services are often free and evidence of consumer harm is hatd to find. Yet they have ne- slected the scandal thatis literally on their doorstep. tis time to take a wrecking bal fo the real-estate racket. 6* Letters ‘The importance of leadership ‘Thedifference between “Managers v leaders” (ctober 28th) is that one isa role and the otherisa way that some- onebehaves. The highest- performing organisations build cultures where everyone sees themselves as aleaderand behaves as such. That means, for example, being prepared to beheld accountable, taking decisions, inspiring others, Dutalso asking for help when you need it ‘Managers, on theother hand, ate critical in organisa- tions to perform the specific role of ensuring thatall tam members have what they need to be successful in their role, ‘Thebest corporatecultures will recognise that progression should not have to mean be- cominga manager. There should always be two paths for progression, in management roles and in individual con- tributorones, Equally, the best cultures ‘won'tsee managers as being where the “authority” should sit. Organisations will instead Took todevolveauthority to where decisionsare best made, which is generally with the people and teams involved in ‘the work, "Turn the Ship Around” by David Marquetis a fantastic story of a nuclear submarine that went from ‘worst to best in the fleet by pushing down decision-mak- ing, and moving from aleader- follower culture toaleader- leader one. As forchief exee- "tives, we must be both man- agers and leaders, but itis the styleof leadership we adopt ‘that will determine how suc- cessful our organisations are, Chief executive Spekrix London ‘Theessence of management and leadership is easily found inthe writings of notable thinkers like Peter Drucker, ‘Tom Peters and Warren Bennis. But if people actually studied them, the business-advice industry would grind toa halt, Columnists, writers, pub- lishers and, bya large margin, expensive consulting firms havea huge existential interest in keeping leadersand manag- ers feeling abitinadequate. I say stay away from the yearly fadsand study the masters. Fellow Drucker School of Management Claremont, California 1am generally wary of leaders, and willtakethe most unin= spiring but efficient manager over any visionary leader. As | see, those who have visions are more likely to need medi= cation than be given the man- tleofleadership. ‘Montrouge, France Bartleby may be on tosome- thing when he talks about luck (ctoder ais). Of course, there \was that manager who threw job applications into the air and randomly picked up half fof them to consider, because he wanted any new recruit ‘to be lucky But there is perhaps ‘more in this maxim, often inaccurately credited to Gary Player: “Ves, 'm lucky, but you know, the harder I practise, the luckier get. Port Stary, IsleofMan ‘Thepol on polls Gustavo Petro, Colombia's left-wing president, is deeply ‘unpopular, you say CHow to lose friends and irritate peo- ple’, October 28th). MrPetro Jost no time in reacting to your article. In separate tweets on Xheargued that your presti- gious publication useda flawed poll commissioned by the opposition. He countered that among the young his popularity grew from 46% in May t0 52% in October. The president failed to mention that in this other poll his popularity was 61% latelast yeas, which suggests he was misteadinga declining trend, Asked iftthey would vote for a candidate close to Mr Petro's government inthe recent regional elections, 57% an- swered no. The definitive test came on ballot day. The presi- dent's party tooka trashing, as Yyou predicted. His party and allies won only afew of the ‘most important cities. In Bogota, Colombia's capital, the government's candidate camea distant third. DREARLOS BRANDO Bogora Health-care costs, and costs was surprised that your excel- lent article about how market failures drive up the cost of health cate in America did not allude to one of the largest components of cost: doctor salaries ’Really big health’ October 14th). Doctors in America regulate themselves, limiting the supply of practi- toners, much ikea medieval guild. They extract rents as, they increase their own in- comes far beyond those of physicians inany other coun- ty. This results in inflated costs up and down the system, Senior fellow ‘Mossavat-Rahmani Centre for Businessand Government Harvard Kennedy School Cambridge, Massachusetts “Joining up the bots" (October, 2st), described those who don’t support the National Health Service's forthcoming projectto integrate data across health trusts as "laggards". This is unfair. Many people within the NHS support the idea of makingbetter use of patient data, However, they are uneasy about the cost—£480m ($585m) over seven years—and the implications for privacy. Although there has been much focus on Palantir, the Amer- ican firm in the running for this rr contract, there has been less recognition of a cheaper, alternative that safeguards patient confidentiality. ‘Opensarety has been developed by a small team of cliniciansand software engineers, and has earned the support of privacy campaign- 1s for a fraction of the price ‘Todate,ithas resulted in over 150 approved projects and over 80 research publications. If ‘more were written about the alternatives to Palantir, then ‘The Economist Novernber nth 2023 pethaps those so-called “laggards” would quicken their pace, DRIAIN DILLINGHAM Software developer Bennett Institute for Applied Data Science Nutffield Department of Primary Care Health Sciences University of Oxtord Measure for measure Your October 21st issue made the inflammatory claim that the British pint, and notthe ‘Americanone, isthe "true pint” CThe empire strikes back’, October). Although appreciate four extra fluid ‘ounces of beer as much as anyone, I must point out that antiquity ison the side of the colonies. The American pintis derived from the historic English wine gallon, standar- dised by statute under Queen Anne in the early 8th century. ‘By contrast, the imperial gal- lon (from which the imperial pintis derived) was not adopt ced in Britain until 824, One might suggest, there fore, that itis the British who should return to their roots and re-adopt theancient, ‘American pint, Minneapolis When $5misnt enough Bagehots column on class dysphoria (October 28th) makes a valid point about a world withan ever-widening wealth gap dominated by billionaires, irrespective of their politcal leaningsand class roots. Let's remind our- selves of Connor's advice to Gregin “Succession” thatthe ‘$5m hewould inheritwasa “nightmare” figure:“Can’t retire, Notworth it to work, Five will drive you un poco loco my fine feathered friend JEFE COFLHO| London Lutes arwscome an shod be TheteonomieTheAiph Glng, ‘nonnadam tet Landon wea inst terspeconoretcom Moveitcaesoetleat Economist.com eters7 Unique Access to Confidential Opportunities InterExec is the global leader in assisting Top Executives acess £200K to £2 unadverised vacances workwid Inter Exec We act discreetly through our 15,000 strong Headhunter network. ‘UNIQUE NETWORK # OUTSTANDING TALENT EST 1976 london@interexec.net_ www.interexec.net +44 (0)20 7256 5085 Your economic insights will give us the foresight to transform Latin America and the Caribbean. Economics Principal Advisor (Three-year fixed term contract with option of renewal), Washington DC ARE YOU READY FOR A CHANGE? eco ral ry8 Al did it my way Ina world where computers can write, sing and act, is it stil possible to be a star? ‘o1sy crows of beautiful people gath: ered outside Hollywood's film studios every weekday for the past six months, shouting slogans and marching inthe sur America’s screenwriters and actors were striking, in part over fears that artificial in- telligence (a1) will soon be writing scripts ‘or even bagging roles. “You go fora job and they scan you,” said a background actress, ‘who worried that her face will be used over and over in crowd scenes. The technology is “disgusting’, said another, who consi- dered its use “an infringement of yourself, ff your career”, The deal actors struck on November Sth to end their strike included protections from their artificial rivals. Five thousand miles away another ani mated crowd can regularly be found chat- tering about al, usually in gloomier weath- cer but brighter spirits. Outside a purpose- built stadium in east London, giddy groups ofall ages, some in fancy dress, gather sev- fen times a week to watch aBBA Voyage, a performance in which a septuagenarian Pop group plays an energetic 90-minute set via virtual avatars, generated with the help of a1. The show, launched in 2022, playedtoam peoplein ts first year and still Almost sells out on most nights, bringing in a reported Sama week while ABB's four ‘members put their feet up. Will ai leave talent impoverished, as Hollywood's protesting actors and writers fear, or farther enrich them, as ABBA has found? It is easy to see why stars are ner- vous. Over the years technology has auto- mated away many routine jabs in enter tainment, butthe creative workat theheart ofthe business has been protected. Noon: get. Generative a1 is hoavering up copy Tighted work and chusningout remixed ite erature, music and video of all varieties, increasingly competing with humans in quality and already far outpacing them in quantity. Ina world of infinite al-generat- ed content, is iteven possible tobe astar? ‘The talent are mobilising unions, law yers and! politicians to protect themselves Hollywood's screenwriters, who ended their five-month strike in September, won 4 promise from studios to employ a mini- mum number of human writers on films and Tv shows, The studios have retained the right to use ar to generate or polish scripts, but the a1 will not be recognised as an author, so human writers’ royalties will note diluted, Writers, for thelr part, have kept the right to use at in their own work. {Although they dislike it, many consider at ‘the best writing partner they've ever had concedes a Hollywood agent) The details of the actors’ deal with stu- dios and streaming services had not been released as The Economist went to press, but the Screen Actors Guild, their union: said that it included “unprecedented pro- visions forconsent and compensation that will protect members from the threat of AI" Thisis likely t mean that actors willat least be notified and paid if their likeness ‘or voice is to be digitally reanimated sue, [sue, Isue, sue, [sue The stars’ second line of defence is legal. A ‘group of authors including Joha Grisham (of The Firm” and dozens more thrillers) and George RR. Martin (of “Game of Thrones") have filed a class-action lawsuit against Openal, the Microsoft-backed ‘company behind Chatorr, arguing that it ingested their work without permission or payment. Another complaint by parties in- cluding “Universal Music Group, the ‘world’s biggest record company, accuses Anthropic, an Amazon- and Google‘The Economist November mh 2023 > backed ar firm, of doing something similar with songlyries. ‘The tech firms argue that “taining” an AL model on copyrighted work amounts to fair use. In the Words of Matthew Sag of Emory University, at does not copy a book “like a scribe in a monastery" so much as learn from it like a student. Pieces of train- ing data, whether novels or songs, usually playsuchasmall ole in the mode's output as to be barely traceable. But notalways. “If yousay, 'Write in thestyle of Dan Brown [of “The Da Vinci Code"), of course it wil pull from Dan Brown's books,” declares Mary Rasenberger, head of the Authors Guild, which represents writers As the courts grind into action, govern- iments are also getting involved. On Octo~ ber 3oth Joe Biden, America’s president, sued an executive order setting out basic rules for at development. The Us Copyright Office is running an inquiry into AL, which will close to comments later this month, ‘There is a risk that governments will compete to create the most “permissive’ regulatory environment, to attract AL firms, warms a music-industry_ insider. Others, citing past waves of tech-driven disruption, see room for compromise. ‘When music-streaming arrived, “We got very defensive, and only defensive,” ad- mits another senior record-company exec tive, Ittooka decade forthe labels to real- ise that the technology was good for busi ness, and doa deal with the streaming plat- forms. Negotiations with ar companies will take less than half that time, he pre- diets. “Its co-existence that’s required.” When the law is settled, who will win and lose from the technology? On the face Of it, the biggest stars seem most vulner- able, At helps ordinary people narrow the gap with the most gifted. Less glamorous Industries have already witnessed this. In Aprila working paper by Erik Brynjolfsson of Stanford University and others found that novice customer-support agents were 35% more productive when given access to a chatbot, whereas experienced agents hardly benefited Something similar is happening in show business, Even before al, tools like autotune were helping ordinary mortals to ‘sound more like their idols, The next gen- eration of technology promises to make such features more powerful. TIKTok's par- entcompany, ByteDance, istriallinganapp called Ripple which takes any melody that users sing into their phone and turns it Into a polished song. oomy, an American startup, lets amateur composers generate original tunes witha few clicksand upload ‘them (0 earn royalties on streaming plat- forms such as Spotify Frumpy actors can vie with gorgeous ‘ones thanks to the digital facelifts of tools such as Vanity at, which are used in pro- dductions like “Stranger Things" and "The - Supers and troupers Spoil st ineresein numberof atts by ‘inimur annual yates eared, 2017-22 © 10 0 390 400 500 stom $50 sim $500 syo0. 50k tok Ss sm Saxe Sty i t Walking Dead” to make actors look prettier or scarier as required, Dull writers can get inspiration from apps such as Sudowrite, hich suggests new ideasand edits. tills itself pithily as “the non-judgmental, al- \ways-there-to-read-one-more-draft, nev- er-runs-out-of-ideas-even-at-3am Al writ- ing partner you always wanted’ ‘Not much At-made work is good, let alone dazzling enough to compete with the stars atthe top of the talent tree. But itis starting to have an impact through sheer scale. Boomy claims to have generated nearly 18m songs (for comparison, Spoti- {ys entire catalogue isa little over 100m) Spotify now adds more than 100,000 new tracks every day, many of them at-made. Sir Lucian Grainge, the head of Universal ‘Music, has warned that real music could drown ina "sea of noise” as streaming plat- forms fill up with amateur tracks. Profes- sional artists’ share of listening is indeed sinking. In 2017 artists signed to record la- bels accounted for 87% of the streams on Spotify. Lastyear theirshare was only 75%. AAI struggles to make real hits, but is good at churning out the kind of music that people have on in the background while working or going to sleep. Those - Five of us Unite states and canada, boxofceevenu, Son ivehighe gosingfme moter mo 5 Briefing Celebrity and Al 19 tracks ate played forlong hoursand so earn bigretums underthe payment model used by streamers. Somein the industry suspect that the streaming platforms welcome the rise of amateur artists, who have less bar- gaining power than the big labels, The idea that streamers might nudge listeners to- wards this content is “absolutely a con- cem’, says another record-company exec- utive, He thinks the only thing stopping them is the risk of annoying listeners. The streamers retortthat itis hardly in thei in- terest to promote bad music. Earlier this year Spotify purged lots of at-made songs and is said tobe rejigging its rules to make low-quality wallpaper music less profit- able: Deezer and Tidal, wo smaller rivals, hhave taken similar measures, “The publishing World has similar com- plaints. Producing entite books by al is so uickand easy that, in September, Amazon banned authors from self-publishing more than three e-books aday on its Kindle plat- form and required publishers to clearly la~ bel books by robot writers. Most Ar texts are full of cliche and waffle (which makes them competitive inthe management genre, an agent quips). But someare taking, sales away from human authors by decep- tion: the Authors Guild has spotted a ten- dency for at-made biographies to land just. before real memoirs are published, for in- stance. “Click farms” have also been de- ployed to manipulate Amazon's rankings. Te guild says that, at one point this sum- mer, 40 of the top 100 youngeadult 10 mance books on Kindle were ar-written ‘Thewinner makesitall ‘Yet far from sinking in this sea of ar-made entertainment, the biggest stars ofall scem to be more buoyant than ever. As record la- bls worry about robot composers, Taylor ‘Swift is halfway through what will proba- bly be the highest-earning concert tour in history, with projected sales of Si.abn or more (no previous tour has breached $ibn). ‘An accompanying film has made an addi tional $230m at the box office. Colleen Hoover, a writer of romantic young-adult fiction, crushed the robot writers last year to bag eight places on the top-25 bestseller listin America, selling 4m copies, accord- ing to Publishers Weekly, a trade tite One of the paradoxes ofthe internet age is that, amid an explosion in online con- tenton platforms from YouTube to TikTok, fans have flocked as never before to the biggest acts. It has been a good time to be anamateurcreator, but an even better time to be a superstar. Data from Spotify show that between 20%7 and 2022, as the plat- form was flooded with tens of millions of amateur tracks, the numberof artists mak- ing at least $3,000 a year in royalties in- creased by 155%. At the same time, the number making $5m or more increased by 165%, and the handful of headliners mak-»20 Briefing Celebrity and Al > ing $iom or more increased by 425% (see chart on previous page). Those who have ‘done least well ae micdling-to-big artists, who face more competition from enter” tainment’s long tail but have been unable to break into the elite group atthe top. Similar patterns can be seen actoss the entertainment world. Better and cheaper technology has democratised filmmaking, The number of movies released each year in America more than doubled during the frsttwo decades of the ast century, but he audience-share ofthe biggest blockbusters hhas grown, not shrunk. In 2019 (the last year before the pandemic) America's five biggest films tooka quarter of the domestic box office, nearly double the share they took in the less crowded market of 2000 (see chart 2). Meanwhile, the ten bestsell- ing authors have accounted for a steady 2-3% of book sales in Britain over the past decade, according to Nielsen, a data com: pany, even though 2m more books are self- published each year. Layall your likes on me “Hits will persist in an infinite-content world,” argues Doug Shapiro, a former me- dia executive, The bewildering variety makes it hard for consumers to pick, so they rely more on recommendations, ‘whether from friends or algorithms, Rath~ er than browse, people seek out what they have already heard of, says Ms Rasenberger of the Authors Guild. "Known writers are selling, And everyone else is having a much harder time. ‘also helps superstars shine brighter by creating opportunities for their admir- ers to become superfans. Followers of a music act used to express. themselves, chiefly through “records, r-shistsand mix- tapes’, says an industry executive. Now the internet offers “mix-tapes on steroids Fans can duet with their idols or dance 10 their music on social media. Games like “Fortnite” have provided a venue for inter active experiences: Ariana Grande held a oncert-game hybrid on the platform in 2021, attracting 27m participants. ‘AL-powered technology promises to al- low the biggest stars to be in even more places, gratifying even more fans. The pro- ‘ducers of ABBA Voyage are in talks to bring, the show tocities in North America, South= East Asia and Australasia, according to Per Sundin, head of Pophouse, a Swedish en- tertainment company that is the biggest investor in the enterprise, Other artists havebeenintouch, looking to"cementand elevate their legacies" with similar shows, he says. "We now have a proven template” Stars donot need tobild their own are- na like ABBA to use at to be in more places at once. Spotfy is working with Openat to translate podcasts into different languag~ es, allowing broadcasters to be heard in more markets, in their own voice, Other firms such as HeyGen providedubbingser- viees for video, using at to change the ‘movementof theactor'slipsto match what they are saying, HeyGen recently created a viral video of Ms Swift appearing to speak fluent Chinese, Such platforms can adapt content in other ways, too, for instance by toning down strong language fora broader audience. Technology like this will allow stars to reach more viewers—and presents a problem to the lowlier actors who spe- cialise in dubbing. Stars are also using a1 to travel in time. John Lennon re-entered the charts on No- vember and with “Now and Then’, old re- cordings of his voice having been salvaged tusing al. CThope someone does this to all ‘my crap demos after 'm dead—make them into hit songs,” said his late fellow Beat George Harrison, of an earlier attempt to resurrect Lennon's work.) James. Earl Jones, whois 92 and first voiced Darth Vad- ceralmost 50 yeats ago, has sold Disney the right to replicate his gravelly tones arti cially. A virtual Darth appeared in Disney's ‘Obi-Wan Kenobi” last year. Some artists are experimenting with li- censing their voice or image more widely. 1n April Grimes, a Canadian singer, invited amateur composers to clone het voice for se in their songs, provided they shareany royalties with her. In September Meta launched 28 chatbot characters, played by celebrities. Snoop Dogg, Paris Hilton and Charlie DAmelio areamong the s-listers to bebotified, with one reportedly being paid 85m over two years. Mark Zuckerberg, Me- {a's boss, invites stars to “build an at ver~ sion of yourself.to help people fulfl this desire to interact with you and your desire tobuild acommunity” ‘Arlisters remain wary: "Their voice is their career.” says a record executive. But even if they do not license their voice or likeness, others may still borrow them. A company called Socialdraft sells $5 ‘The Economist November ith 2023, “prompts” to. make chatbots take on the personality of celebrities ranging from ‘Tom Cruise 0 Josef Stalin, who do not ap- pear to have given their permission, It is, named in a legal complaint by a group of authors including Mr Grisham, whom it also impersonates. (Socialdraft denies ‘wrongdoing, Antonio Evans, its chief exec- tive, says, “The interplay between at copyright and individual rights is a thrill ing narrative we areall partof”) ‘Some unauthorised clones have be- ‘come hits. In April an anonymous amateur ‘composer released a song called "Heart On ‘My Sleeve’, using the at-replicated voices ‘of two rappers, Drake and The Weeknd. The song Was streamed 20m times before Uni- versal, which represents the two artists, demanded itbe taken down, ‘The track caused alarm, but italsodem- ‘onstrated how cloning can work in artists favour. Analysis by Will Page, author of “pivot” and a former chief economist at Spotify, suggests that being cloned can help stars sell genuine music. He calcu- lates that after David Guetta, a French py, posted a clip of an at-generated rap in the style of Eminem in February, streams of real Eminem tracks rose by about a fifth Yet antipathy to at remains flerce. A group of actors, writers and directors has set up an outfit called Credoa3 to certify filmsandTvshows made without ar (thas yet to take off). Many singers, burned by ‘igital piracy in the past, are also hostile. Sir Cliff Richard, an 83-year-old crooner recently declared that his singing "didn't Useartificial insemination Others fear that at will simply make en- tertainment derivative and boring. Three- {quarters of Americans tell YouGov, a poll- ster, that they worry ar will sap human cre- tivity. The process of ingestingeverything. and then spitting out an average may lead toa stylistic and conceptual regression to the mean, says a literary agent, who sees similarities with the algorithms on social media that help propagate the most pedes- trian views. Sir Lucian, at Universal, has said that a1 "will always lack the essential spatk that drives the most talented artists todo theirbest work, which is intention’ Everything depends on whether audi: ences embrace artificial performances. “Is the next generation of moviegoers going to ‘want to see differentactor in James Bond, san example? Or arethey goingto want 0 see Sean Connery come back?” asks a Hol- Iywood agent. al-generated performances may prove to be most successful for the biggest stars, whose uncritical superfans cannot get enough of them. As Liam Gal- lagher, a former Oasis frontman and John Lennon devotee, replied when asked on so- cial media what he thought of the remas- tered "Now and Then’: "The Beatles could shit in my hand bag I'd still hide my polo mintsin there"It can’t happen here again If the presidential election were held tomorrow, Trump would probably win dential impeachment trial, four ongoing Criminal trials for 9: alleged felonies and all the attacks of the Republican challeng: fers for the party’s nomination in 2024, Mr Trump's hold over his party looks ironclad His challengers appear quixoticas the first ballots ofthe primary, to be cast in Lowa in January, draw nearer, Shy to criticise the Popular former president, his rivals have repeatedly argued that Mr‘Trump would be unable to defeat President Joe Biden. Democrats, who refused to even entertain the idea of persuading the octogenarian president to stand aside, seemed to share this analysis. Both have gravely underest mated Mr Trump. He has a considerable chance of being elected president—fair land square—in one year’s time on the frst Tuesday in November 2024. Ifthe election were to be held tomorrow, he would even be considered the favourite Even among ing in. Over the weekend the Donald Trump by apost-presi- iden fans, doubts ereep- New York Times released a series of polls conducted With Siena College in the six swing states that will almost certainly decide the result of the 2024 elections (see map). To sleep walking Democrats, who believe that Mr Trump has been rendered wnelectable after his shameless attempt to overturn the pre vious election, the results were ikea buck: tof cold water inthe face In Arizona, Georgia, and Pennsylvania the ichigan, Nevada found MrTrump to 22 Off-yearresults 23 Sexually transmitted infections 24 SCOTUSand guns 24 GrowingCalifornia 25 Renaminglandmarks 26 Chicago's immigration backlash = Lexingtonis away be leading among registered voters by a margin of atleast four points. They founda lead for Mr Biden only in Wisconsin, by a margin of two points. Below the disap- pointing toplines, the crosstabs contained more worrying findings. In these critical states 42% of Hispanicand 22% of African: ‘American votets said they would vote for Mr‘Trump, which, iftrue, would mark the collapse of the ‘minority support that Democrats had relied on for decades. Voters also said they trusted Mr Trump todo better job of handling the economy (69% to 37% for Mr Biden); immigration (63% to 4%); and even the Istaeli-Palestin- jan conflict (50% to 39%). Seven in ten hought Mr Biden was too voters said they old tobe an a majority of Democrats, The polling was so inauspicious that David Axelrod, the prominent Democratic political strategist ‘who helped elect Barack Obama, gently uuggested that Mr Biden should consider standing dows should Democrats be in such a panic? They might frst try to console themselves by appealing to the vagaries of sampling error. Polling is increasingly difficult b ‘cause fewer Americans respond to poll- sters, making construction of a represen- ective president—including, tative sample of voters very hard. This is especially true for measuring sentiment among demographic sub African-American or Hispanic voters, for ‘whom sample sizes are even smaller than22. United States - Level pegging United States, presidential approval ating, ‘baa 0 0 dey ” ump BI 1 ao wo” ao a” von > the several thousand who might be drawn up in a poll, Yet other head-to-head polls show a tight contest, suggesting that the result is not an outlie ‘The better argument for those who de fend Mr Biden is that polls area snapshot in time, and that public opinion drifts. As ‘two political scientists, Christopher Wle- zien. and Will Jennings, found in their study of decades of elections in scores of countries, head-to-head polls conducted ‘one year ahead are almost useless at pre- dicting the eventual outcome. American presidential contests areusually close, and polls tighten in the months leading up to the election. “Are we living in a world ‘where we should see an eight-point shift?’ asks John Sides, apolitical scientist at Van- ‘The Economist November nth 2023 > preme court. Only in Mississippi, deep in the conservative heartland, did Democrats lose abig race (as expected). Even there the challenging candidate Brandon Presley fel ‘two points short of forcing Tate Reeves, the incumbent governor, intoa run-off. What is clear from the results is that the Republican platform of severe restrictions of abortion remains deeply unpopular. Al- ‘though many conservatives are unwilling, to vote for Democratic candidates, they routinely vote against the conservative party if presented with an up-or-down ref- ‘erendum on abortion. In the last year, this thas been truein votes in states lke Kansas, Kentucky and Wisconsin. Mr Beshear, Who Is already drawing notice as a potential presidential candidate in 2028, managed totum theseemingly favourable politics of. abortion restriction in Kentucky against his conservative opponent by attacking a legal regime that requires teenage rape vie~ tims to carry their pregnancies to term. Surprisingly the Democratic attack line ‘on abortion worked even when Republi cans attempted to moderate, Virginia is a former swing state that has gradually be- ‘come liberal asa result of its sizeable pop- ulation of college-educated suburbanites. ‘The state has the most lenient abortion rules in the south, To avoid charges of ex ‘remism, Mr Youngkin united Republicans Inhisstatearoundass-week limit with fur- ther exemptions for cases of rape, incest and protection of the life of the mother. ‘They put up reasonable-seeming candi- dates who worked as an obstetrician and maternal-health start-up founder. Yet Democrats charged that the moder- ation was a ploy and that Republicans ‘could not be rusted to contain themselves if handed majorities in the state legisla- ture. Outright bans on abortion were possi ble, the Democrats Warned. And it Seems that the voters listened. Now Mr Youngkin ‘must deal with Democratic majorities in both chambers ofthe state legislature, se- verely limiting the policy platform he had been planning, By contrast, Republican attempts to seize on nationalised issues fel flat, Cul- ture-war issues like how secondary-school sports ought to deal with transgender pu- pils did not electrify voters this year. The ‘unpopular president did not prove a liabil- ity, Democrats across the country managed tw distance themselves from Mr Biden and his dismal approval ratings. ‘The White House is already trying to use the Democrats’ wins to buoy Me Biden and to try and quell anxieties about 2024. But to consider these elections a reliable signal of what is to come could be a mis- take. First, because Democrats are now the party ofthe politically engaged and highly. ‘eciucated, they may benefit more from the ow tumout experienced in off-year years. Second, state elections ean be more idio- syneratic without presidential ballots, Al- though Democrats in Ohio and Kentucky have plenty to celebrate, the two states are certainly not in play for Mr Biden in 2024, MrBeshear has sort of ancestral claim on the governorship in Kentucky, asaresult of his father's successful stewardship. Every other Democratic nominee for statewide office was trounced. Ohio Democrats clev- erly chose to put abortion access on the ballotasa referendum with full knowledge that voters would be unlikely to elect hu- ‘man Democratic politicians. ‘The off-year election results do not re- fute the polls showing Mr Biden's daunting prospects inthe year ahead, as much as the White House might wish itso. Instead they suggest that Democrats do not have a plat- {orm problem, but a personnel problem. I would probably behove them to take the right lesson. Unintended consequences The clap is back HIV has become less deadly. That has enabled other infections to flourish WWENTY YEARS ago, syphilis seemed close to elimination in America. Go- northoea rates were also declining. Fast- forward to today and syphilis, gonorrhoea and chlamydia, three of the most common sexually transmitted infections (st1s), are hitting historic highs (see char), especial- ly among gay men and certain ethnic-mi- nority groups. In 2021 gonorrhoea reached its highest level since 1991 and syphilis since 1990. Chlamydia's rates have nearly doubled since 20 yeats ago. Even babies are being affected. On November 7th the Cen- tres for Disease Control and Prevention (ce) announced that congenital syphi- lis—passed to babies from infected moth- cers—increased tenfold from 2012 to 2022, - Rise and fall Unite stater tires ieee Ure Peibotoopene 000 Cchsmyain “0 “ 0 0 Gorantes 0 ae » se pee ee Fhe sn United States Why is this happening? stis_have plagued humans since Biblical times. But ‘when HIV was first identified in the United States in 191, it was particularly devastat- ing. Whereas most stis have unpleasant symptoms (chlamydiaand gonorthoea can result in infertility in severe cases and syphilis can be deadly if Teft untreated), contracting Hiv was a death sentence. In 1992 HIV Was the leading cause of death among American men aged 25-84. The fear of contracting uv and dying from atns led to behavioural changes. Peo ple used condoms and got screened for tis more frequently. Public-health pro- grammes received more funding. And as People died from tps, there were fewer high-risk people alive to spread stis, says Jay Varma, a professor at Weill Comell Medicine. One study found that ALDs-ass0- ciated mortality may have accounted for upto 50% ofthe decline in syphilis rates in the early 1990s, ‘ig improvements have since been made in HIV prevention and treatment. ‘Those concerned about contracting HIV can take pre-exposure prophylaxis (Pre), hich reduces the chances of getting the virus, and contracting Hv is no longer a death sentence. Many people infected with x live long, healthy lives and only have to takea daily pill to manage the virus With the arrival of prep and improved ‘eatments, condoms fell outof favour and sis began to rise. At the same time fund- ing fell for sri clinics. Couple this with the rise of dating apps, which encourage casu- al and frequent hookups, and the condi tions were perfect for stis to spread. [prep] has been getting all of the atten- tion, all of the resources,” says Ant6n Cas- tellanos Usigl, a lecturer at the Mailman School of Public Health at Columbia Uni- versity. "We have laggely forgotten..the other sideof thecoin." ‘There is some hope for slowing the rise in infections. In October the cb¢ released draft guidelines for a "morning-after" pill for stis. Known as doxycycline or doxy- pep, the drugcan be taken by men afterun- protected sex to prevent infection, Doxy-PeP may seem like a miracle, but over-use of antibiotics may make some diseases resistant to them, Gonorthoea is especially hardy—a new antibiotic-resis- tant strain was recently detected in Ameri a. To the relief of public-health officals, a new drug for gonorrhoea has entered phase three of elinical trials, but this anti= biotic may in time become irrelevant to. Dr Varma says public-health officials should aspire to do more than just help people avoid and heal from sris. The target should be “to have sex be infection-free’ Hepoints to the strides made with nV pre- vention and treatment, which few thought possible. "think it’s aspirational, but 1 don't thinkit's totally unachievable." m 324 United States Gun laws Disarming justice ‘The Supreme Court seems to have found a gun-contro! measure it likes -ARD CASES make bad law, warned Oli- ‘ver Wendell Holmes, an early-20th- ‘century justice. Cases reaching America’s Supreme Court often pose tricky, even wrenching, dilemmas. But after 90 min- ‘utes of oral argument on November 7th, a case testing the boundaries of the court's recent expansion of gun rights looked un- expectedly easy to resolve. United States v Rahimi involves Zackey Rahimi, a 23-year-old Texan whose gi friend was granted a protective order in 12020 two months after Mr Rahimi assault- edherinaparkinglot. The couple had be squabbling over custody of their child ‘when Mr Rahimi knocked his gilfriend to the ground, dragged her to his car and pushed her inside. He then shot at an eye- ‘witness and, later, threatened to shoot his girlfiend if she told anyone what he had done. The restraining order came with a suspension of his handgun licence and a caution that federal law prohibited him from possessing a gun. Mr Rahimi did not heed the warning, He shot at several driv- ers, used an Axe to fire into the house of a man towhom he had sold drugs and shotat a fast-food restaurant. In March, the Fifth Circuit Court of Ap- peals found that while Mr Rahimi may not be a "model citizen” he is “nonetheless among ‘the people’ entitled to the Second ‘Amendment's guarantees". Drawing on the testin New York tate Rifleand Pistol Associ tation v Bruen, the Supreme Court's gun- rights ruling from 2022, the Fifth Circuit searched for a historical analogue to the federal ban on firearms for domestic abus- fers under restraining orders, Finding no such match—not surprisingly, given that domestic abuse was not on the founders list of scourges in 1791—America’s most ‘conservative appellate court found the fed- eral aw unconstitutional In the 16 months since Bruen came down, many lower courts fielding chal- lenges to gun regulations have read the de- cision in similarly stark terms. But in her presentation to the justices, Elizabeth Pre- gar, the solicitor-general, argued that itis the principles undergirding regulations that matter. Judges, she said, should not “nitpick” or insist on a “historical twin’ when comparing a firearm restriction of today to the tradition of gun regulation at the founding, Chief Justice John Roberts and Justice Clarence Thomas pressed Ms Prelogar to defend her position that only people wh “law-abiding, responsible citizens’ ‘may Keep their guns. Responsibility is a ‘very broad concept’ Chief Justice Roberts said. Can someone be deemed irresponsi- ble—and thus be disarmed—because he didn't take the recycling to the kerb or be- have ata basketball game? No, the solici- tor-general explained, the language comes from Bruenand Districtof Columbia Heller, the case of 2008 that found the Second Amendment protected an individual right to own guns. It means, she said, that the government can deny guns to felons and people who are otherwise found to be dan- gerous (due to mental illness, youth or violent tendencies) Mr Rahimi’s lawyer, Matthew Wright, crumbled during hisstintatthe lectern. He raised questions about the fairness of the state-court proceeding that resulted in the restraining order—and Was reminded by Justice Neil Gorsuch that the case does not involve a due-process claim, He faltered ‘when Justice Elena Kagan asked him to de- fend his briefs main contention that the ban must fall because no such ban existed ‘while the founding generation walked the Earth". Jumping on his hesitancy, Justice Kagan turned the knife: "I feel like you're running away from your argument, you know, because the implications of your ar- jgument are just so untenable: ‘Mr Wrights dismal performance spurred Justice Amy Coney Barretttoadmit being”so confused” and left justice Thom- as—author of Bruen and the court’ biggest gun-rights fan—holding his hand over his eyes. Justice Thomas may yer side with Mr Rahimi; he seemed upset that the protec- tive order was “a small matter” with *huge consequences" forthe Texan's right to own guns. A majorityof the court seemsunlike- Iytore-arm Mr Rahimi. ‘Taking the pistol The Economist November nth 2023, A great migration East of Eden California is losing people, but this region wouldn't know it 10 DRIVE AROUND Lathrop, asmall town in California's Central Valley, isto seea rural community in the thtoes of rapid de- velopment. shelley Burcham is the town's economic-development administrator She takes your correspondent round in a silver Tesla, explains which fast-food joints are new (In-N-Out Burger), when rheW apartments were buile (now leasing!) and where almond groves will be ploughed ‘under to create an industrial park. "There's goats there now” she says, pointing to a field, butif you come backagain there will bbesomething built there: ‘The biggest story in California recently thas been the reversal of what had hitherto been the state's defining characteristic: population growth, The Golden State lost people for the first time in its history in 2021. Republican governors claim that peo- ple are "voting with thelr feet’, and that California’s population loss is a reflection ‘of poor governance. But not every place in in the state is shrinking. Recent estimates from California's Department of Finance suggest that the counties projected to grow: most over the next four decades are inland from the coast and in the Central Valley, the state'sagricultural heartland, Two factors explain this. First, birth rates in Central Valley counties are higher than in more populous areas, a trend whichis mirrored in ruraland urban coun- ties across America. The second reason valley communities are growing isbecause there isa migration under way within Cal fornia. More San Franciscans moved t0 Al- ameda County, across the Bay, than any= ‘where else between 2020 and 2021. Rough= ly a quarter of those who left Alameda County, which includes Oakland, moved to ‘two neighbouring counties totheeast. The Silicon Valley investors who want to build a viay utopia in Solano County, between [Napa's vineyards and the state capital, Sac- ramento, are no doubt aware of the area's allure to members ofthe techsodus. Something similar is unfolding in Southern California. During the first year of the covid-19 pandemic, nearly a quarter of all ta County leavers moved east to San ‘Bernardino or Riverside counties, an area aptly knowns the Inland Empire. Ieistrue that many Californians have left for Texas ‘or Arizona. But most Californians who de- cide to move are not quitting the Golden State, they are just quitting the coast One of the biggest beneficiaries of this»