Gladiator Stocks

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Open Recommendations
New recommendations
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Date Scrip I-Direct Code Buying Range Target Stoploss Upside (%) Duration
18-Sep-23 Bank of Baroda BANBAR 206-211 238.00 195.00 13% 3 Months

Scrip Time Frame

SBI 30 days
Open recommendations
Indian Bank 14 days
Date Scrip Avg Rec Price Target Stoploss CMP Return till date (%) Duration LIC Housing Finance 14 days
11-Sep-23 Reliance Industries 2456 2,770.00 2,310.00 2,444 0% 3 Months
8-Sep-23 Tata Motors 622 696.00 578.00 642 3% 3 Months Click here to know more…
7-Sep-23 Maruti 10300 11,500.00 9,600.00 10,618 3% 3 Months

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

6-Sep-23 Hindustan Aeronautics 3980 4,500.00 3,695.00 4,018 1% 3 Months
1-Sep-23 Latent View Analytics 438 510.00 395.00 430 -2% 3 Months
28-Jul-23 Alembic Pharma 763 872.00 718.00 784 3% 3 Months
All the recommendations are in Cash segment

September 18, 2023

Research Analysts

Dharmesh Shah Nitin Kunte Ninad Tamhanekar, CMT Vinayak Parmar

dharmesh.shah@icicisecurities.com nitin.kunte@icicisecurities.com ninad.tamhanekar@icicisecurities.com vinayak.parmar@icicisecurities.com
PSU Banks: Decadal breakout indicate structural turnaround

Nifty PSU Bank Index Monthly Chart

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2011 2015
highs highs

Higher base at 12
month’s EMA in
the entire up
move highlighting
elevated demand

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Monthly MACD in rising trajectory validates positive bias

o The Nifty PSU banking index has given a resolute breakout from decade long consolidation indicating structural turnaround
o Similar breakouts in many PSU banking stocks indicate sharp acceleration in coming months and structural shift backed by improving fundamentals
o As part of a series of recommendations in the PSU banking segment, we are covering Bank of Baroda in this report as stock is poised for a consolidation
from 13 year consolidation

Source: Spider Software , ICICI Direct Research

September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 2
Bank of Baroda(BANBAR): At the cusp of 13 year
breakout

Rec. Price 206-211 Target 238.00 Stop loss 195.00 Upside 13%
Target @ 238

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Monthly Chart o PSU banks have accelerated their
relative outperformance post
210 216 207 resolute breakout in Nifty PSU
bank index from 12-year
consolidation phase. Bank of
Baroda is at the cusp of breakout
from 13-year consolidation
indicating structural turnaround,
thus providing fresh entry
opportunity to ride structural
uptrend

o Structurally, share price has been

Key Support @ in steady uptrend over past two
195 being 80% years. More recently, stock has
retracement of retraced its eight-week corrective
current up move phase in just two weeks

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

indicating acceleration in upward
Weekly Chart momentum and strength. With
fundamental tailwinds for PSU
banking sector, we expect stock
price to breakout from 13 years
consolidation and outperform
Faster pace of over next few quarters
retracement
o We expect share price to achieve
a target of Rs 238 over next few
months as its implication of a
breakout from most recent
consolidation (Rs 211-185=237)

Monthly MACD sustaining well above its nine period average, indicating positive bias

Source: Spider Software, ICICI Direct Research Recommended on I-click to gain on 18th September 2023 at 09:18

September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research

3
Fundamental View: Bank of Baroda (BANBAR)

Particulars
• Bank of Baroda is among leading PSU banks with a global loan book of ~₹ 10 lakh crore and has better operating metrics among PSBs. Particulars Amount

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Market Capitalisation ₹111804 crore
• Management is targeting credit growth of 14-15%; a tad higher than the industry. Focus segment for the bank includes retail and
MSME sector which will enable to propel growth and aid yields. Retail segment is expected to grow at 18-20%, while corporate growth Networth ₹102007 crore
is estimated at 1-13% in FY24E 52 week H/L 216/ 124
Face value 2.0
• Bank of Baroda has reported healthy margin trajectory in-line with industry, however, the same seems to peak out. Going ahead,
Financials
pressure on margins, on the back of rise in deposit rates, is expected. However, repricing of MCLR based loans, focus on high yield
retail loans and improving CD ratio is seen to keep margins healthy at ~3-3.2% ahead ₹ crore FY23 FY24E FY25E
NII 41,356 47,283 52,937
• Significant improvement has been witnessed in asset quality of the bank with Gross NPA at ~3.51% and net NPA at ~0.78%. In PPP 26,864 31,369 35,330
addition, coverage ratio (PCR), including TWO advances, has increased at ~93.23%. Recoveries targeted at ₹12,000 crore and
PAT 14,110 15,420 17,434
moderation in slippages is expected to keep asset quality steady with further decline in credit cost in FY24E
ABV (₹) 181 212 239
• Overall, industry-inline growth with retail segment in focus is seen to aid margins and operational performance. Moderation in
slippages is seen to sustain improvement in RoA above ~1%. Recoveries from stressed pool remains catalyst which is difficult to

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Valuation
estimate. Valuation remains attractive with stock trading below book value
₹ crore FY23 FY24E FY25E
P/E 7.9 7.3 6.4
P/ABV 1.2 1.0 0.9
RoA 1.0 1.0 1.0
RoE (%) 15.0 13.9 13.8
Price performance of last 5 years

127

% Change
33
17

-14
-40
-60
Source: Bloomberg, ICICI Direct Research CY19 CY20 CY21 CY22 YTD
September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research Year 4
Follow up summary of Gladiator Stocks

Summary Performance - Recommendations till date

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Total Recommendations 917 Open 6
Closed Recommendations 911 Yield on Positive recommendations 15.0%
Positive Recommendations 687 Yield on Negative recommendations -8.0%
Closed at cost 27
Strike Rate 78%

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Source: ICICI Direct Research
September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 5
 Momentum Picks open recommendations

Date Scrip Name Strategy Recommendations Price Target Stoploss Time Frame
18-Sep-23 State Bank of India Buy 597-606 655 578 30 Days

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18-Sep-23 Indian Bank Buy 404-411 442 390 14 Days
14-Sep-23 LIC Housing Finance Buy 454-465 499 444 14 Days
14-Sep-23 JK PAPER Buy 382-391 422 373 14 Days
12-Sep-23 Elgi Equipment Buy 505-520 562 495 14 Days
04-Sep-23 SAIL Buy 99-103 117 93 30 Days
All recommendations are in cash market

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Back to Top

Source: ICICI Direct Research

September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 6

Price history of past three years

Bank of Baroda

MOMENTUM PICK
ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research
Source: Spider Software. ICICI Direct Research
September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 7
Product Guidelines......

• It is recommended to enter in a staggered manner within the prescribed range provided in the report
•

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Once the recommendation is executed, it is advisable to keep strict stop loss as provided in the report on closing
basis
• The recommendations are valid for three to six months as specified on first page of report and in case we intend to
carry forward the position, it will be communicated through separate mail

Trading portfolio allocation

• It is recommended to spread out the trading corpus in a proportionate manner between the various technical
research products
• Please avoid allocating the entire trading corpus to a single stock or a single product segment
• Within each product segment it is advisable to allocate equal amount to each recommendation

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

• For example: The ‘Momentum Picks’ product carries 2 intraday recommendations. It is advisable to allocate equal
amount to each recommendation

Source: ICICI Direct Research

September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 8
 Recommended product wise trading portfolio allocation

Allocations
Product Product wise Max allocation

MOMENTUM PICK
allocation In 1 Stock Number of Calls Return Objective Duration

Momentum Picks- 10% 30-50% 2 Stocks 1-2% Intraday

Intraday
Momentum Picks- 25% 8-10% 8-10 Per Month 5-8% 14 Days
Positional

Gladiator Stocks 35% 10-13% Opportunity Based 15-20% 6 Months

Yearly Technical 25% 12-15% 7-9 Per Year 20-30% 1 Year

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

Cash 5%

100%

Source: ICICI Direct Research

September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 9
 MOMENTUM PICK
Pankaj Pandey Head – Research pankaj.pandey@icicisecurities.com

ICICI Securities – Retail Equity Research

ICICI Direct Research Desk,
ICICI Securities Limited,
Third Floor, Brillanto House,
Road No 13, MIDC,
Andheri (East)
Mumbai – 400 093
research@icicidirect.com

September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 10

Disclaimer
We/I,DharmeshShah,NitinKunte,NinadTamhanekar,VinayakParmarResearchAnalysts,authors and the names subscribed to this report,hereby certify that all of the views expressed in this research report accurately reflect our views about the subject issuer(s) or securities. We also
certify that no part of our compensation was ,is ,or will be directly or indirectly related to the specific recommendation(s) or view(s )in this report. Analysts are not registered as research analysts by FINRA and are not associated persons of the ICICISecurities Inc. It is also confirmed
that above mentioned Analysts of this report have not receive dany compensation from the companies mentioned in the report in the preceding twelve months and do not serve as an officer,direct or or employee of the companies mentioned in the report.

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September 18, 2023 ICICI Securities Ltd. | Retail Equity Research 11