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Coursera Lesson 6 Bayes

The document is a summary of a graded quiz on Coursera about Bayesian statistics. It indicates that the user passed the quiz with a score of 83.33%. The quiz asked about using data from an experiment to update a prior belief about the temperature at which water boils. Specifically, it asked what the posterior distribution would look like given measurements that were all close to but not exactly 100 degrees Celsius, and a prior that said the temperature was exactly 100 degrees with certainty. The summary is that the posterior would be concentrated near the sample mean of 95.4 degrees Celsius since the prior belief of exactly 100 degrees was too narrow and did not incorporate the variability in the measurements.

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Caio Henrique Konyosi Miyashiro
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134 views1 page

Coursera Lesson 6 Bayes

The document is a summary of a graded quiz on Coursera about Bayesian statistics. It indicates that the user passed the quiz with a score of 83.33%. The quiz asked about using data from an experiment to update a prior belief about the temperature at which water boils. Specifically, it asked what the posterior distribution would look like given measurements that were all close to but not exactly 100 degrees Celsius, and a prior that said the temperature was exactly 100 degrees with certainty. The summary is that the posterior would be concentrated near the sample mean of 95.4 degrees Celsius since the prior belief of exactly 100 degrees was too narrow and did not incorporate the variability in the measurements.

Uploaded by

Caio Henrique Konyosi Miyashiro
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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10/11/23, 4:26 PM Lesson 6: Demonstrate your knowledge | Coursera

Lesson 6: Demonstrate your knowledge English D


Back Graded Quiz • 30 min 9,
P

Congratulations! You passed!


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Grade Latest Submission To pass 75% or


received 83.33% Grade 83.33% higher
Quiz

Lesson
Go to6:
nextDemonstrate
item your knowledge

Submit your assignment

Due1. Oct
For9,Questions
11:59 PM JST1-2,Attempts
consider4the
every 8 hours experiment:
following 1 / 1 point

Suppose you are trying to calibrate a thermometer by testing the temperature it


Resume assignment
reads when water begins to boil. Because of natural variation, you take several
measurements (experiments) to estimate θ , the mean temperature reading for this
thermometer at the boiling point.
Receive grade
You know that at sea level, water should boil at 100 degrees Celsius, so you use a
To Passprecise
75% orprior
higher
with P (θ = 100) = 1. You then observe the following five
measurements: 94.6 95.4 96.2 94.9 95.9.

Your grade What will the posterior for θ look like?

83.33%
Most posterior probability will be concentrated near the sample mean of 95.4
degrees Celsius.
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Most posterior probability will be spread between the sample mean of 95.4
We keep your highest score
degrees Celsius and the prior mean of 100 degrees Celsius.

The posterior will be θ = 100 with probability 1, regardless of the data.


None of the above.
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Correct
Because all prior probability is on a single point (100 degrees Celsius), the
prior completely dominates any data. If we are 100% certain of the
outcome before the experiment, we learn nothing by performing it.

Clearly this was a poor choice of prior, especially in light of the data we
collected.

https://www.coursera.org/learn/bayesian-statistics/exam/GJ6vm/lesson-6-demonstrate-your-knowledge/view-attempt 1/1

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