Money Supply
Money Supply
Money Supply
Money supply
In macroeconomics, the money supply (or money stock) refers to
the total volume of currency held by the public at a particular point in
time. There are several ways to define "money", but standard measures
usually include currency in circulation (i.e. physical cash) and demand
deposits (depositors' easily accessed assets on the books of financial
institutions).[1][2] The central bank of a country may use a definition of
what constitutes legal tender for its purposes.
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In the United States, a bank's reserves consist of U.S. currency held by the bank (also known as "vault cash"[12])
plus the bank's balances in Federal Reserve accounts.[13][14] For this purpose, cash on hand and balances in
Federal Reserve ("Fed") accounts are interchangeable (both are obligations of the Fed). Reserves may come
from any source, including the federal funds market, deposits by the public, and borrowing from the Fed
itself.[15]
In contrast, when the central bank "tightens" the money supply, it sells securities on the open market, drawing
liquid funds out of the banking system. The prices of such securities fall as supply is increased, and interest
rates rise. This also has a multiplier effect.
This kind of activity reduces or increases the supply of short term government debt in the hands of banks and
the non-bank public, also lowering or raising interest rates. In parallel, it increases or reduces the supply of
loanable funds (money) and thereby the ability of private banks to issue new money through issuing debt.
The simple connection between monetary policy and monetary aggregates such as M1 and M2 changed in the
1970s as the reserve requirements on deposits started to fall with the emergence of money funds, which require
no reserves. At present, reserve requirements apply only to "transactions deposits" – essentially checking
accounts. The vast majority of funding sources used by private banks to create loans are not limited by bank
reserves. Most commercial and industrial loans are financed by issuing large denomination CDs. Money market
deposits are largely used to lend to corporations who issue commercial paper. Consumer loans are also made
using savings deposits, which are not subject to reserve requirements. This means that instead of the value of
loans supplied responding passively to monetary policy, we often see it rising and falling with the demand for
funds and the willingness of banks to lend.
Some economists argue that the money multiplier is a meaningless concept, because its relevance would require
that the money supply be exogenous, i.e. determined by the monetary authorities via open market operations. If
central banks usually target the shortest-term interest rate (as their policy instrument) then this leads to the
money supply being endogenous.[16]
Neither commercial nor consumer loans are any longer limited by bank reserves. Nor are they directly linked
proportional to reserves. Between 1995 and 2008, the value of consumer loans has steadily increased out of
proportion to bank reserves. Then, as part of the financial crisis, bank reserves rose dramatically as new loans
shrank.
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In recent years, some academic economists renowned for their work on the implications of rational expectations
have argued that open market operations are irrelevant. These include Robert Lucas Jr., Thomas Sargent, Neil
Wallace, Finn E. Kydland, Edward C. Prescott and Scott Freeman. Keynesian economists point to the
ineffectiveness of open market operations in 2008 in the United States, when short-term interest rates went as
low as they could go in nominal terms, so that no more monetary stimulus could occur. This zero bound
problem has been called the liquidity trap or "pushing on a string" (the pusher being the central bank and the
string being the real economy).
This continuum corresponds to the way that different types of money are more or less controlled by monetary
policy. Narrow measures include those more directly affected and controlled by monetary policy, whereas
broader measures are less closely related to monetary-policy actions.[6] It is a matter of perennial debate as to
whether narrower or broader versions of the money supply have a more predictable link to nominal GDP.
The different types of money are typically classified as "M"s. The "M"s usually range from M0 (narrowest) to
M3 (broadest) but which "M"s are actually focused on in policy formulation depends on the country's central
bank. The typical layout for each of the "M"s is as follows:
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Notes and coins in circulation (outside Federal Reserve Banks and the vaults of
depository institutions) (currency) ✓[17] ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Demand deposits ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Other checkable deposits (OCDs), which consist primarily of negotiable order of
withdrawal (NOW) accounts at depository institutions and credit union share draft ✓[18] ✓ ✓ ✓
accounts.
Time deposits less than $100,000 and money-market deposit accounts for individuals ✓ ✓
Large time deposits, institutional money market funds, short-term repurchase and other
✓
larger liquid assets[20]
M0: In some countries, such as the United Kingdom, M0 includes bank reserves, so M0 is referred to as the
monetary base, or narrow money.[21]
MB: is referred to as the monetary base or total currency.[17] This is the base from which other forms of
money (like checking deposits, listed below) are created and is traditionally the most liquid measure of the
money supply.[22]
M1: Bank reserves are not included in M1.
M2: Represents M1 and "close substitutes" for M1.[23] M2 is a broader classification of money than M1. M2
is a key economic indicator used to forecast inflation.[24]
M3: M2 plus large and long-term deposits. Since 2006, M3 is no longer published by the US central
bank.[25] However, there are still estimates produced by various private institutions.
MZM: Money with zero maturity. It measures the supply of financial assets redeemable at par on demand.
Velocity of MZM is historically a relatively accurate predictor of inflation.[26][27][28]
The ratio of a pair of these measures, most often M2 / M0, is called the money multiplier.
Definitions of "money"
East Asia
Hong Kong
In 1967, when sterling was devalued, the Hong Kong dollar's peg to the
pound was increased from 1 shilling 3 pence (£1 = HK$16) to 1 shilling
4½ pence (£1 = HK$14.5455) although this did not entirely offset the
devaluation of sterling relative to the US dollar (it went from US$1 =
HK$5.71 to US$1 = HK$6.06). In 1972 the Hong Kong dollar was
pegged to the US dollar at a rate of US$1 = HK$5.65. This was reduced
to HK$5.085 in 1973. Between 1974 and 1983 the Hong Kong dollar
floated. On October 17, 1983, the currency was pegged at a rate of US$1
= HK$7.80 through the currency board system. HKD vs USD over the year
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As of May 18, 2005, in addition to the lower guaranteed limit, a new upper guaranteed limit was set for the
[Hong Kong dollar at 7.75 to the American dollar. The lower limit was lowered from 7.80 to 7.85 (by 100 pips
per week from May 23 to June 20, 2005). The Hong Kong Monetary Authority indicated that this move was to
narrow the gap between the interest rates in Hong Kong and those of the United States. A further aim of
allowing the Hong Kong dollar to trade in a range is to avoid the HK dollar being used as a proxy for speculative
bets on a renminbi revaluation.
The Hong Kong Basic Law and the Sino-British Joint Declaration provides that Hong Kong retains full
autonomy with respect to currency issuance. Currency in Hong Kong is issued by the government and three
local banks under the supervision of the territory's de facto central bank, the Hong Kong Monetary Authority.
Bank notes are printed by Hong Kong Note Printing.
A bank can issue a Hong Kong dollar only if it has the equivalent exchange in US dollars on deposit. The
currency board system ensures that Hong Kong's entire monetary base is backed with US dollars at the linked
exchange rate. The resources for the backing are kept in Hong Kong's exchange fund, which is among the largest
official reserves in the world. Hong Kong also has huge deposits of US dollars, with official foreign currency
reserves of 331.3 billion USD as of September 2014.[29]
Japan
Europe
United Kingdom
M0: Notes and coin in circulation plus banks' reserve balance with Bank
of England. (When the bank introduced Money Market Reform in May M4 money supply of the United
2006, the bank ceased publication of M0 and instead began publishing Kingdom 1984–2007. In thousand
series for reserve balances at the Bank of England to accompany notes millions (billions) of pounds sterling.
and coin in circulation.[31])
M4: Cash outside banks (i.e. in circulation with the public and non-bank
firms) plus private-sector retail bank and building society deposits plus private-sector wholesale bank and
building society deposits and certificates of deposit.[32] In 2010 the total money supply (M4) measure in the
UK was £2.2 trillion while the actual notes and coins in circulation totalled only £47 billion, 2.1% of the
actual money supply.[33]
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There are several different definitions of money supply to reflect the differing stores of money. Owing to the
nature of bank deposits, especially time-restricted savings account deposits, M4 represents the most illiquid
measure of money. M0, by contrast, is the most liquid measure of the money supply.
Eurozone
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M3: M2 plus repurchase agreements plus money market fund (MMF) shares/units, plus debt securities up to
two years
North America
United States
MB, M1 and M2 from 1959 to 2021 (all shown in billions) Link (https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=JEwV). Note that before April 24,
2020 savings accounts were not part of M1[35]
M0, M1 and M3. US-GDP and M3 of Eurozone for comparison. Logarithmic scale.
The United States Federal Reserve published data on three monetary aggregates until 2006, when it ceased
publication of M3 data[25] and only published data on M1 and M2. M1 consists of money commonly used for
payment, basically currency in circulation and checking account balances; and M2 includes M1 plus balances
that generally are similar to transaction accounts and that, for the most part, can be converted fairly readily to
M1 with little or no loss of principal. The M2 measure is thought to be held primarily by households. Prior to its
discontinuation, M3 comprised M2 plus certain accounts that are held by entities other than individuals and are
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Prior to 2020, savings accounts were counted as M2 and not part of M1 as they were not considered
"transaction accounts" by the Fed. (There was a limit of six transactions per cycle that could be carried out in a
savings account without incurring a penalty.) On March 15, 2020, the Federal Reserve eliminated reserve
requirements for all depository institutions and rendered the regulatory distinction between reservable
"transaction accounts" and nonreservable "savings deposits" unnecessary. On April 24, 2020, the Board
removed this regulatory distinction by deleting the six-per-month transfer limit on savings deposits. From this
point on, savings account deposits were included in M1.[19]
Although the Treasury can and does hold cash and a special deposit account at the Fed (TGA account), these
assets do not count in any of the aggregates. So in essence, money paid in taxes paid to the Federal Government
(Treasury) is excluded from the money supply. To counter this, the government created the Treasury Tax and
Loan (TT&L) program in which any receipts above a certain threshold are redeposited in private banks. The
idea is that tax receipts won't decrease the amount of reserves in the banking system. The TT&L accounts, while
demand deposits, do not count toward M1 or any other aggregate either.
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When the Federal Reserve announced in 2005 that they would cease publishing M3 statistics in March 2006,
they explained that M3 did not convey any additional information about economic activity compared to M2,
and thus, "has not played a role in the monetary policy process for many years." Therefore, the costs to collect
M3 data outweighed the benefits the data provided.[25] Some politicians have spoken out against the Federal
Reserve's decision to cease publishing M3 statistics and have urged the U.S. Congress to take steps requiring the
Federal Reserve to do so. Congressman Ron Paul (R-TX) claimed that "M3 is the best description of how
quickly the Fed is creating new money and credit. Common sense tells us that a government central bank
creating new money out of thin air depreciates the value of each dollar in circulation."[38] Modern Monetary
Theory disagrees. It holds that money creation in a free-floating fiat currency regime such as the U.S. will not
lead to significant inflation unless the economy is approaching full employment and full capacity. Some of the
data used to calculate M3 are still collected and published on a regular basis.[25] Current alternate sources of
M3 data are available from the private sector.[39]
As of April 2013, the monetary base was $3 trillion[40] and M2, the broadest measure of money supply, was
$10.5 trillion.[41]
Oceania
Australia
M1: currency in circulation plus bank current deposits from the private
non-bank sector[43]
M3: M1 plus all other bank deposits from the private non-bank sector,
plus bank certificate of deposits, less inter-bank deposits
Broad money: M3 plus borrowings from the private sector by NBFIs,
less the latter's holdings of currency and bank deposits The money supply of Australia
1984–2022
Money base: holdings of notes and coins by the private sector plus
deposits of banks with the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) and other
RBA liabilities to the private non-bank sector.
New Zealand
The Reserve Bank of New Zealand defines the monetary aggregates as:[44]
M1: notes and coins held by the public plus chequeable deposits, minus
inter-institutional chequeable deposits, and minus central government
deposits
M2: M1 + all non-M1 call funding (call funding includes overnight money
and funding on terms that can of right be broken without break penalties)
minus inter-institutional non-M1 call funding
M3: the broadest monetary aggregate. It represents all New Zealand
dollar funding of M3 institutions and any Reserve Bank repos with non-
M3 institutions. M3 consists of notes & coin held by the public plus NZ
New Zealand money supply 1988–
dollar funding minus inter-M3 institutional claims and minus central
2008
government deposits
South Asia
India
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[46]
The money supply is important because it is linked to inflation by the equation of exchange in an equation
proposed by Irving Fisher in 1911:[47]
where
In mathematical terms, this equation is an identity which is true by definition rather than describing economic
behavior. That is, velocity is defined by the values of the other three variables. Unlike the other terms, the
velocity of money has no independent measure and can only be estimated by dividing PQ by M. Some adherents
of the quantity theory of money assume that the velocity of money is stable and predictable, being determined
mostly by financial institutions. If that assumption is valid then changes in M can be used to predict changes in
PQ. If not, then a model of V is required in order for the equation of exchange to be useful as a macroeconomics
model or as a predictor of prices.
Most macroeconomists replace the equation of exchange with equations for the demand for money which
describe more regular and predictable economic behavior. However, predictability (or the lack thereof) of the
velocity of money is equivalent to predictability (or the lack thereof) of the demand for money (since in
equilibrium real money demand is simply Q V
). Either way, this unpredictability made policy-makers at the
Federal Reserve rely less on the money supply in steering the U.S. economy. Instead, the policy focus has
shifted to interest rates such as the fed funds rate.
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In practice, macroeconomists almost always use real GDP to define Q, omitting the role of all transactions
except for those involving newly produced goods and services (i.e., consumption goods, investment goods,
government-purchased goods, and exports). But the original quantity theory of money did not follow this
practice: PQ was the monetary value of all new transactions, whether of real goods and services or of paper
assets.
The monetary value of assets, goods, and services sold during the year could
be grossly estimated using nominal GDP back in the 1960s. This is not the
case anymore because of the dramatic rise of the number of financial
transactions relative to that of real transactions up until 2008. That is, the
total value of transactions (including purchases of paper assets) rose relative
to nominal GDP (which excludes those purchases).
Ignoring the effects of monetary growth on real purchases and velocity, this U.S. M3 money supply as a
suggests that the growth of the money supply may cause different kinds of proportion of gross domestic
inflation at different times. For example, rises in the U.S. money supplies product.
between the 1970s and the present encouraged first a rise in the inflation
rate for newly-produced goods and services ("inflation" as usually defined)
in the 1970s and then asset-price inflation in later decades: it may have encouraged a stock market boom in the
1980s and 1990s and then, after 2001, a rise in home prices, i.e., the famous housing bubble. This story, of
course, assumes that the amounts of money were the causes of these different types of inflation rather than
being endogenous results of the economy's dynamics.
When home prices went down, the Federal Reserve kept its loose monetary policy and lowered interest rates;
the attempt to slow price declines in one asset class, e.g. real estate, may well have caused prices in other asset
classes to rise, e.g. commodities.
Rates of growth
In terms of percentage changes (to a close approximation, under low growth rates),[48] the percentage change in
a product, say XY, is equal to the sum of the percentage changes %ΔX + %ΔY ). So, denoting all percentage
changes as per unit of time,
As before, this equation is only useful if %ΔV follows regular behavior. It also loses usefulness if the central
bank lacks control over %ΔM.
Arguments
Historically, in Europe, the main function of the central bank is to maintain low inflation. In the USA the focus
is on both inflation and unemployment. These goals are sometimes in conflict (according to the Phillips curve).
A central bank may attempt to do this by artificially influencing the demand for goods by increasing or
decreasing the nation's money supply (relative to trend), which lowers or raises interest rates, which stimulates
or restrains spending on goods and services.
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An important debate among economists in the second half of the 20th century concerned the central bank's
ability to predict how much money should be in circulation, given current employment rates and inflation rates.
Economists such as Milton Friedman believed that the central bank would always get it wrong, leading to wider
swings in the economy than if it were just left alone.[50] This is why they advocated a non-interventionist
approach: one of targeting a pre-specified path for the money supply independent of current economic
conditions, even though in practice this might involve regular intervention with open market operations (or
other monetary-policy tools) to keep the money supply on target.
The former Chairman of the US Federal Reserve, Ben Bernanke, suggested in 2004 that over the preceding 10
to 15 years, many modern central banks became relatively adept at manipulation of the money supply, leading
to a smoother business cycle, with recessions tending to be smaller and less frequent than in earlier decades, a
phenomenon termed "The Great Moderation"[51] This theory encountered criticism during the global financial
crisis of 2008–2009. Furthermore, it may be that the functions of the central bank need to encompass more
than the shifting up or down of interest rates or bank reserves: these tools, although valuable, may not in fact
moderate the volatility of money supply (or its velocity).
See also
Money portal
References
1. Alan Deardorff. "Money supply," Deardorff's Glossary of International Economics (http://www-personal.umic
h.edu/~alandear/glossary/m.html)
2. Karl Brunner, "money supply," The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, v. 3, p. 527.
3. The Money Supply – Federal Reserve Bank of New York (http://www.newyorkfed.org/aboutthefed/fedpoint/f
ed49.html). Newyorkfed.org.
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4. Sysoyeva, Larysa; Bielova, Inna; Ryabushka, Luidmila; Demikhov, Oleksii (May 29, 2021). "Determinants of
Management of Central Bank to Provide the Economic Growth: an Application of Structural Equation
Modeling" (https://ojs.ual.es/ojs/index.php/eea/article/view/4803). Studies of Applied Economics. 39 (5).
doi:10.25115/eea.v39i5.4803 (https://doi.org/10.25115%2Feea.v39i5.4803). ISSN 1697-5731 (https://www.w
orldcat.org/issn/1697-5731). S2CID 236417850 (https://api.semanticscholar.org/CorpusID:236417850).
5. Milton Friedman (1987). "quantity theory of money", The New Palgrave: A Dictionary of Economics, v. 4, pp.
15–19.
6. "money supply Definition" (https://web.archive.org/web/20190412051550/http://www.investorwords.com/311
0/money_supply.html). Archived from the original (http://www.investorwords.com/3110/money_supply.html)
on April 12, 2019. Retrieved July 20, 2008.
7. Frank Decker, Charles A.E. Goodhart (2021): Wilhelm Lautenbach’s credit mechanics – a precursor to the
current money supply debate, Taylor & Francis, p. 8, DOI: 10.1080/09672567.2021.1963796 (https://www.ta
ndfonline.com/doi/abs/10.1080/09672567.2021.1963796?journalCode=rejh20).
8. McLeay, Michael. "Money Creation in the Modern Economy" (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/-/media/boe/
files/quarterly-bulletin/2014/money-creation-in-the-modern-economy.pdf) (PDF). Bank of England.
9. "The coexistence of central and commercial bank monies: multiple issuers, one currency". The Role of
Central Bank Money in Payment Systems (http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss55.pdf) (PDF). Bank for International
Settlements. p. 9.
10. The Role of Central Bank Money in Payment Systems (http://www.bis.org/publ/cpss55.pdf) (PDF). Bank for
International Settlements. p. 3. "Contemporary monetary systems are based on the mutually reinforcing
roles of central bank money and commercial bank monies."
11. Domestic payments in Euroland: commercial and central bank money (http://www.ecb.int/press/key/date/20
00/html/sp001109_2.en.html). European Central Bank. November 9, 2000. "At the beginning of the 20th
almost the totality of retail payments were made in central bank money. Over time, this monopoly came to
be shared with commercial banks, when deposits and their transfer via checks and giros became widely
accepted. Banknotes and commercial bank money became fully interchangeable payment media that
customers could use according to their needs. While transaction costs in commercial bank money were
shrinking, cashless payment instruments became increasingly used, at the expense of banknotes."
12. 12 C.F.R. sec. 204.2(k).
13. 12 C.F.R. sec. 204.5(a).
14. What is vault cash? definition and meaning (http://www.investorwords.com/7260/vault_cash.html).
Investorwords.com.
15. "Net Free or Borrowed Reserves of Depository Institutions (NFORBRES) – FRED" (http://research.stlouisfe
d.org/fred2/series/NFORBRES). research.stlouisfed.org. St. Louis Fed. January 1929..
16. Boermans, Martijn; Moore, Basil (2009). Locked-in and Sticky textbooks (https://issuu.com/martijnboerman
s/docs/boermans_moore__2009__-_locked-in_sticky_textbooks). Issuu.com.
17. "Gold, Oil, Stocks, Investments, Currencies, and the Federal Reserve: Growth of Global Money Supply" (htt
p://dollardaze.org/blog/?post_id=00565) Archived (https://web.archive.org/web/20150915011923/http://dollar
daze.org/blog/?post_id=00565) September 15, 2015, at the Wayback Machine. DollarDaze Economic
Commentary Blog by Mike Hewitt.
18. M1 Money Stock (M1) – FRED – St. Louis Fed (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/M1).
Research.stlouisfed.org.
19. "Revisions to the H.6 Statistical Release" (https://www.federalreserve.gov/feeds/h6.html). December 17,
2020.
20. M3 Definition (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m3.asp). Investopedia (February 15, 2009).
21. M0 (monetary base) (http://moneyterms.co.uk/m0/). Moneyterms.co.uk.
22. "M0" (https://web.archive.org/web/20180330092457/https://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m0.asp).
Investopedia. Archived from the original (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m0.asp) on March 30, 2018.
Retrieved July 20, 2008.
23. "M2" (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/m2.asp). Investopedia. Retrieved July 20, 2008.
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Further reading
Article in the New Palgrave on Money Supply (http://www.dictionaryofeconomics.com/article?id=pde2008_M
000236&goto=moneysupply&result_number=2372) by Milton Friedman
Do all banks hold reserves, and, if so, where do they hold them? (11/2001) (http://www.frbsf.org/education/a
ctivities/drecon/2001/0111.html)
What effect does a change in the reserve requirement have on the money supply? (08/2001) (http://www.frb
sf.org/education/activities/drecon/2001/0108.html)
St. Louis Fed: Monetary Aggregates (http://research.stlouisfed.org/aggreg/)
Hülsmann, Jörg (2008). The Ethics of Money Production (https://mises.org/library/ethics-money-production).
Auburn, Alabama: Ludwig von Mises Institute. p. 294. ISBN 9781933550091.
Discontinuance of M3 Publication (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/discm3.htm)
Investopedia: Money Zero Maturity (MZM) (http://www.investopedia.com/terms/m/moneyzeromaturity.asp)
External links
Aggregate Reserves Of Depository Institutions And The Monetary Base (H.3) (https://www.federalreserve.g
ov/releases/h3/Current/h3.htm)
Historical H.3 releases (https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/title/88)
Money Stock Measures (H.6) (https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h6/current/default.htm)
U.S. MZM magnitude (http://research.stlouisfed.org/fred2/series/MZMV) and velocity (http://research.stlouisf
ed.org/fred2/series/MZMV), used as a predictor of inflation
Data on Monetary Aggregates in Australia (https://web.archive.org/web/20050618181347/http://www.rba.go
v.au/Statistics/AlphaListing/alpha_listing_m.html)
Monetary Statistics on Hong Kong Monetary Authority (http://www.info.gov.hk/hkma/eng/press/category/stati
stics_index.htm)
Monetary Survey (http://www.pbc.gov.cn/english/) from People's Bank of China
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