Ecological Modernization - Origins, Dilemmas and Future
Ecological Modernization - Origins, Dilemmas and Future
To cite this article: Mikael Skou Andersen & Ilmo Massa (2000) Ecological modernization — origins, dilemmas and future
directions, Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning, 2:4, 337-345, DOI: 10.1080/714852820
Taylor & Francis makes every effort to ensure the accuracy of all the information (the “Content”) contained
in the publications on our platform. However, Taylor & Francis, our agents, and our licensors make no
representations or warranties whatsoever as to the accuracy, completeness, or suitability for any purpose of
the Content. Any opinions and views expressed in this publication are the opinions and views of the authors,
and are not the views of or endorsed by Taylor & Francis. The accuracy of the Content should not be relied
upon and should be independently verified with primary sources of information. Taylor and Francis shall
not be liable for any losses, actions, claims, proceedings, demands, costs, expenses, damages, and other
liabilities whatsoever or howsoever caused arising directly or indirectly in connection with, in relation to or
arising out of the use of the Content.
This article may be used for research, teaching, and private study purposes. Any substantial or systematic
reproduction, redistribution, reselling, loan, sub-licensing, systematic supply, or distribution in any
form to anyone is expressly forbidden. Terms & Conditions of access and use can be found at http://
www.tandfonline.com/page/terms-and-conditions
                                                      Journal of Environmental Policy & Planning
                                                      J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337 – 345 (2000)
                                                      ABSTRACT          Several of the preceding contributions to this special issue have raised critical comments and questions on
                                                      the concept and research agenda of ecological modernization. It is our impression that these comments not only reflect
                                                      academic ingenuity, but also a broader and growing hesitation about the concept and its usefulness, as similar scepticism
                                                      was also expressed by participants at the international workshop on ecological modernization in Helsinki. As the term
                                                      ecological modernization has grown popular among leading politicians and policy-makers, so has the dilution of it. In this
                                                      paper, we make an attempt to move away from the purely heuristic use of ecological modernization, by clarifying both its
                                                      origins and meanings. For connoisseurs of the concept, our paper may be seen as a recapitulation, rather than as an
                                                      innovation; our mission is not to reinvent a concept, but to clarify its origins and connected dilemmas. In essence, ecological
                                                      modernization refers to a specific type of foresighted and preventive environmental policy, which is closely related to the
                                                      precautionary principle and, therefore, involves long-term structural change of the patterns of production and consumption.
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      The agenda for ecological modernization, and for an associated ecological tax reform, was promoted by scientists outside
                                                      of the economics profession, but helped breathe new life into the dormant discipline of environmental economics. In recent
                                                      years, much of the debate on the opportunities of ecological modernization have been ‘captured’ by economists, who tend
                                                      to perceive it in the vein of conventional efficiency measures. In view of the serious environmental problems facing the global
                                                      community in the 21st century, ecological modernization as a concept, in our opinion, only makes sense if reserved for a
                                                      reference to more radical structural changes that promote ecological consistency rather than ordinary efficiency. Copyright
                                                      © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.
                                                         A question raised concerns the fit between the    ecological modernization in the recent literature
                                                      ecological modernization strategy and the serious    (cf Hajer, 1995; Mol, 1995), but as they do not
                                                      environmental problems facing the 21st century.      explain the origins of the concept, we will do so
                                                      Compared with global warming, overpopulation         briefly.
                                                      and increased entropy, the concerns of the 1980s        The term ökologische Modernisierung was coined in
                                                      with air pollution, sewage and waste management      the 1980s by two political scientists, Huber
                                                      may seem rather trivial now. The ecological          (1982, 1985) and Jänicke (1984, 1988), who used
                                                      modernization strategy was fostered in a period      it to refer to a more foresighted and preventive
                                                      when the limits to growth perspective had been       type of environmental policy, in line with
                                                      discarded, and long before the International         what was seen as necessary in the 1980s post-
                                                      Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) had warned            Waldsterben debate. While Huber and Jänicke
                                                      against and substantiated the risks of global        introduced the term around 1982–1983, there
                                                      warming. Therefore, the ecological moderniza-        were also other propagators of the concept.
                                                      tion rhetoric has, unfortunately, at times devel-    Brunowsky & Wicke (1984) outlined a compre-
                                                      oped into a joyful fairy tale of low-hanging £10     hensive O8 ko-plan, the philosophy of which was to
                                                      notes and, in terms of research, into an undue       promote a new Wirtschaftswunder through a fore-
                                                      preoccupation with company innovations only at       sighted and preventive environmental policy.
                                                      the margin of traditional production practices.      Although they did not explicitly speak of ‘ecolog-
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                         While the concept of ecological moderniza-        ical modernization’, the rationale for such a
                                                      tion was inspired, to some extent, by environ-       policy can easily be detected in their book
                                                      mental economics (Wicke, 1982), its optimistic       (Brunowsky & Wicke, 1984).1 Frequent refer-
                                                      message has also posed formidable challenges to      ences were made in the German debate to the
                                                      economists in clarifying whether the implied         spectacular Japanese experiences in air-pollution
                                                      double dividend of a more foresighted and pre-       control, where taxes on SO2 had spurred not only
                                                      ventive environmental policy can be realized. In     technological development of flue gas scrubbers,
                                                      other words, as the canary was out of the cage,      but also far-reaching changes in energy consump-
                                                      the neoclassical economists were prompted to         tion and supply, something that gave Japan a
                                                      capture it again. However, we argue here that the    competitive lead in air-pollution control (Weid-
                                                      concept of ecological modernization in fact be-      ner, 1986; Nishimura, 1989).2 The vision that
                                                      longs to a regulatory philosophy, which is at        emerged was one of not only growth of
                                                      odds with the conventional paradigm of neoclas-      a considerable environmental industry, but
                                                      sical environmental economics. In order to           also far-reaching structural change in industrial
                                                      analyse the validity of the concept, we find it      society.
                                                      more fruitful to move on to the results of more         The concept of ecological modernization is
                                                      technology-oriented studies. We find it crucial to   deeply rooted in the principles of a preventive
                                                      draw a distinction between simple neoclassical       environmental policy and a social market econ-
                                                      efficiency measures and a more structure-            omy. It seems to be significant that Jänicke
                                                      oriented modernization of industrial society on      (1988) established ecological modernization as
                                                      an ecological basis. Ecological modernization is     the operational component of the vorsorge Prinzip,
                                                      not about efficiency, but rather, as Joseph Huber    also known as the precautionary principle.
                                                      has argued in this Special Issue, about ecological      The principle of preventive and precautionary
                                                      consistency between material flows, resource use     action (Vorsorge) was first enshrined in the
                                                      and consumption.                                     1971 FRG Environmental Action Programme,
                                                                                                           and it is defined as an approach to environmen-
                                                                                                           tal protection that is foresighted and long-term
                                                      The conceptual origins of ecological                 oriented, by steering the development away
                                                      modernization                                        from production processes that are environ-
                                                                                                           mentally problematic. The main tools in this
                                                      Both Langhelle and Seippel in this Special Issue     process are science and technological innova-
                                                      have analysed the different interpretations of       tion. While science is used to detect possible
                                                      Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.                      J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)
                                                      Origins, Dilemmas and Future Directions                                                               339
                                                      dangers, technological innovation is the tool to    tion and state subsidies for research and devel-
                                                      develop alternative paths of development. The       opment. It is a kind of green Keynesianism
                                                      precautionary approach acknowledges that,           (Boehmer-Christiansen, 1994).3 However, the
                                                      while scientific proof can be provided only with    ecological modernization strategy also relies on
                                                      great difficulty and delay to justify regulations   new strategies and initiatives from within busi-
                                                      against toxic or harmful emissions, reasonable      nesses. The joint emphasis on new technologi-
                                                      doubts about the environmental effects of cer-      cal paths, business responsibility and the
                                                      tain processes or products justify the search for   abstention from narrow cost–benefit calculi is
                                                      alternative approaches to provision of the goods    neatly captured in the following:
                                                      or services in question. This is where technolog-
                                                                                                            However significant a narrow cost-management
                                                      ical innovation and the use of science—that is,       may be, it is in itself not likely to be a successful
                                                      ecological modernization per se—becomes perti-        strategy for the future. The key to the future is
                                                      nent.                                                 rather: innovation, technical progress and qualifi-
                                                         In 1984, the precautionary approach was de-        cations. For that purpose we need humans, who
                                                      fined officially as one in which ‘damages done        dare to do something new and who have visions
                                                      to the natural world (which surrounds us all)         for the future . . . Researchers and inventors must
                                                      should be avoided in advance and in accordance        obtain more influence on the top floors of busi-
                                                      with opportunity and possibility. The precau-         ness. After the era of cost calculators and effi-
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      tionary principle further means the early detec-      ciency experts, we now again need a decade of
                                                      tion of dangers to health and environment by          technicians and engineers’. (Lafontaine, 1996)
                                                      comprehensive, synchronised research, in par-       To which extent this also corresponds with
                                                      ticular about cause and effect relation-            political and economic realities is, of course,
                                                      ships . . . it also means acting when conclu-       quite a different story, but that is very much
                                                      sively ascertained understanding by science is      what ecological modernization should be about.
                                                      not yet available. Precaution means to develop,
                                                      in all sectors of the economy, technological
                                                      processes that significantly reduce environmen-     The economic debate
                                                      tal burdens, especially those brought about
                                                      by the introduction of harmful substances’          The ecological modernization concept managed
                                                      (BMI, 1984; Boehmer-Christiansen, 1994).            to put an imprint on the European Commission
                                                         Ecological modernization is the operational      White Paper on economic growth, competitive-
                                                      component of the precautionary principle, but       ness and employment, which gave support to
                                                      seems also to imply that this development can       the thesis of a ‘double dividend’ (environment
                                                      take place in a way that is economically benefi-    and employment) from strict and advanced en-
                                                      cial to society as a whole. However, the precau-    vironmental policies, in particular by lowering
                                                      tionary principle is in many ways at odds with      taxes on income and increasing them on envi-
                                                      the efficiency perspective of environmental eco-    ronment and natural resources (CEC, 1993).
                                                      nomics, because reliance on scientific indica-      From this point onwards, the ecological mod-
                                                      tions rather than scientific facts impairs the      ernization strategy moved into the political
                                                      desired quantification of environmental risks       realm and gradually influenced thinking about
                                                      and costings. The implication must, therefore,      the relationship between economic develop-
                                                      be that the harmonization of economic and           ment, employment issues and pollution control
                                                      ecological objectives is one that appears only in   across Europe. A set of new keywords were
                                                      the longer term, when the precautionary ap-         attached to the ecological modernization
                                                      proach has led to a new development path that       paradigm; apart from ‘double dividend’ also
                                                      is less environmentally destructive.                ‘win–win’ solutions and ‘no-regret’ measures.4
                                                         We may note that the promotion of ecologi-       Ecological modernization gradually attained a
                                                      cal modernization relies on the well-known          degree of societal consensus, at least in coun-
                                                      principles of the social market economy (cf.        tries such as Sweden, Denmark and Germany
                                                      Ludwig Erhardt) on active government interven-      (Lundqvist, 2000). Do we need an ecological
                                                      Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.                     J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)
                                                      340                                                                           M.S. Andersen and I. Massa
                                                      modernization of industrial society, asked, for        no costs, or with positive effects to the econ-
                                                      example, the President of the German Associa-          omy. Goulder contends that it is necessary to
                                                      tion of Engineers in an address to his members,        estimate the size of the environmental benefits
                                                      and gave the answer: ‘There is hardly anyone           too, in order to judge whether the overall tax
                                                      who doubts the necessity of this issue, the            shift can be carried out with a positive effect for
                                                      question only is how’ (Burckhardt, 1996, p. 8).        the economy. One cannot claim that the tax
                                                         Much of the political and economic debate           shift itself is of positive value for the economy.
                                                      has tended to focus on the virtues of an ecolog-       Hence, we are back to the usual cost–benefit
                                                      ical tax reform as a key instrument for eco-           analysis of environmental policy.
                                                      logical modernization. Like the ecological                However, the results that lead to a rejection
                                                      modernization concept, the notion of ecotax            of the strong double-dividend stem, unsurpris-
                                                      reform was, in fact, also conceived by non-            ingly, from economic models with extremely
                                                      economists (Springmann, 1986; Weizsäcker,             simplified assumptions. General equilibrium
                                                      1990; Weizsäcker & Jesinghaus, 1992). It advo-        models are, in principle, able to assess the
                                                      cated a tax shift from conventional income taxes       dynamic effects on the economy, but the
                                                      on labour towards Pigouvian taxes on pollution         parameters of the models are often rather crude.
                                                      and natural resources, such as fossil fuels, as part   Ekins (1997) reviews a number of economic
                                                      of an overall ecological tax reform. As McCoy          studies that have shown more positive effects. A
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      (1997) has pointed out, economists were lag-           report commissioned by the European Commis-
                                                      ging behind in the debate on these new ideas.          sion showed a substantial employment effect
                                                      While policy-makers were quick to accept the           from a European carbon tax, 1.1–2.2 million
                                                      idea of an ecotax shift after the White Paper          jobs and a contribution to GDP of about 1%
                                                      (CEC, 1993), many neoclassical economists              (CEC, 1994, p. 53). Much work has focused
                                                      were outright sceptical.5
                                                                                                             on substituting distortionary taxes. Majocchi
                                                         The ecological modernization imperative is
                                                                                                             (1994) suggests that the targeting of revenue
                                                      essentially macro-economic in nature, whereas
                                                                                                             recycling to offset lower income groups could
                                                      conventional environmental economics is a
                                                                                                             produce significant employment effects, in the
                                                      micro-economic discipline dealing with effi-
                                                      ciency. The utilitarian approach of environmen-        magnitude of 2–3%. Barker has developed a
                                                      tal economics requires that natural resources and      comprehensive macro-economic model that also
                                                      environmental externalities are properly priced,       forecasts more positive effects (Barker & Köhler,
                                                      so that market actors will take account of their       1998). It should be added, though, that in
                                                      values in their transactions. However, before the      countries such as Sweden and the Netherlands,
                                                      mid-1990s, little analytical work had actually         where government-appointed commissions have
                                                      been done on the macro-economic implications           been established to model the possible divi-
                                                      of ecotaxes on, for example, employment.               dends from environmental taxation, the results
                                                         Goulder (1994) was among the first to ex-           have generally not provided support for the
                                                      press profound scepticism about double divi-           hypothesis. These results may have as much to
                                                      dend. Since the bulk of eco-tax-reform                 do with the limitations of economic models as
                                                      proposals rely on taxation of fossil energy, in        with the potential results of ecological tax re-
                                                      particular of their carbon emissions, Goulder          forms or processes of ecological modernization.
                                                      speculates as to whether the reason for the focus         The problem with most of the models is that
                                                      on double dividend is the absence of a first           they are hardly able to take account of techno-
                                                      dividend (he stipulates that unilateral carbon         logical change. And technological change is
                                                      taxes will not bring domestic environmental            exactly what ecological modernization is
                                                      benefits). Goulder (1994) rejects the notion of a      about. Much of the research on the double
                                                      double dividend, except in a rather weak form.         dividend from ecological modernization takes
                                                         According to the strong double-dividend hy-         place on the premises that no technological
                                                      pothesis, an exchange of distortional labour           change is induced, and that environmental taxes
                                                      taxes with Pigouvian taxes can be carried out at       are added simply to existing prices, where, not
                                                      Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.                        J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)
                                                      Origins, Dilemmas and Future Directions                                                            341
                                                      surprisingly, they affect demand and supply and     presents quantitative evidence for a range of
                                                      impose a burden on the existing unsustainable       industrial sectors for an entire country.
                                                      economy. One of the theoretical models that            The study concerns the Danish government’s
                                                      Goulder refers to is so simple that not even        subsidy programme to promote the develop-
                                                      capital is represented, it includes merely labour   ment and application of cleaner technologies,
                                                      and three commodities. Depending on the so-         which has been a central vehicle for Danish
                                                      phistication of the models, the mis-specification   environmental policy for about a decade (An-
                                                      of the technological dimension may lead to a        dersen, 1994; Andersen & Jørgensen, 1995). The
                                                      gross mis-specification of the potentials in-       Danish Environmental Protection Act has the
                                                      volved. Despite efforts to improve economic         development and application of cleaner tech-
                                                      modelling, the main problem with much of the        nology as one of its general targets. The
                                                      economic analysis, as pointed out very early by     Programme for Cleaner Technology was
                                                      Zimmermann (1990), is that it does not capture      established in 1987, and allowed skilful engi-
                                                      the essential idea of ecological modernization      neers and inventors to enter into intimate coop-
                                                      well, in that it assesses the costs and benefits    eration with process engineers from a broad
                                                      only in the initial period, neglecting the long-    range of companies in a systematic and reflec-
                                                      term qualitative changes in the economy that        tive process to develop cleaner technologies.
                                                      could develop under the umbrella of an eco-         Conceptually, cleaner technology refers to mea-
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      modernization strategy in association with a tax    sures for pollution control, which are oriented
                                                      shift.                                              towards control at the source, rather than end-
                                                         An ecological tax reform can be translated       of-pipe measures. The study of the programme
                                                      into economic models because it alters prices,      was based on a review of more than 300
                                                      but ecological modernization is more than a tax     projects conducted over a 5-year period, and it
                                                      shift — it comprises practices, know-how and
                                                                                                          included an assessment of the diffusion of
                                                      routines in a wider human, social and technical
                                                                                                          cleaner technology and the total environmental
                                                      space.
                                                                                                          effects. The study was conducted with full ac-
                                                                                                          cess to all documents and information, and by
                                                                                                          an independent team of researchers.
                                                      Technological developments —                           The programme has especially tried to pro-
                                                      the limits of the neoclassical                      mote cleaner technologies in industrial sectors
                                                      efficiency perspective on ecological                dominated by small and medium-sized firms,
                                                      modernization                                       such as the fish processing industry, the wood
                                                                                                          and furniture industry, the graphic industry and
                                                      Which other methodologies and types of evi-         the electro-plating industry, but also farming
                                                      dence, other than the economic models, do we        practices have become subject to cleaner tech-
                                                      have that explore the virtues of ecological mod-    nologies. Projects have been financed by the
                                                      ernization? Much of the literature is case-study    Danish government under the condition of a
                                                      oriented, depicting particular industries or com-   substantial self-financing element. The pro-
                                                      panies, with primarily anecdotal and qualitative    gramme is seen to have caused a partial change
                                                      evidence. There have been no reviews of this        in the practice of the Environmental Protection
                                                      literature, and we are not in a position that       Agency (EPA). Previously the EPA diverted
                                                      allows us to present one here. Rather, we will      many resources into the handling of complaints
                                                      rely on one systematic and quantitatively-ori-      over discharge permits granted by local authori-
                                                      ented study, which researched one of the more       ties, and had a legalistic going-by-the-book atti-
                                                      comprehensive efforts towards promoting eco-        tude to environmental protection. During this
                                                      logical modernization across a rather broad         programme, the officials entered into a direct
                                                      horizon of production processes, firms and in-      dialogue with companies, consultants and ex-
                                                      dustrial sectors. Contrary to much of the case-     perts in various industrial branches on how to
                                                      study literature on eco-management, this study      improve the environmental performance.
                                                      Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.                     J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)
                                                      342                                                                         M.S. Andersen and I. Massa
                                                         The cleaner projects ranged from good             lution, in the neoclassical sense, falls short of
                                                      housekeeping practices to improved material          the imperatives of ecological modernization. If
                                                      and energy efficiency to substitution of products    improved environmental practices merely pro-
                                                      and processes with innovative and less adverse       mote increased efficiency in the use of materi-
                                                      alternatives. The effects were tracked through       als, and energy in order to diminish unwanted
                                                      an extensive survey of the diffusion of cleaner      outputs and residuals, it is likely to become
                                                      technologies from the supported projects to the      efficient only at the margins of already estab-
                                                      entire industrial sectors of relevance, based on a   lished production process practices. Although
                                                      survey of more than 600 companies, or nearly         some of the early publications on ecological
                                                      10% of Denmark’s industrial base. Six key in-        modernization could lead one to equate it with
                                                      dustrial sectors were targeted in this process.      such an efficiency revolution, these interpreta-
                                                         On the environmental side, the interesting        tions underscore how intimately the concept is
                                                      finding was that most of the good housekeeping       linked to approaches of prevention and precau-
                                                      and efficiency measures, despite impressive rates    tion in environmental policy—that is, the long-
                                                      of diffusion, had been offset by increases in        term oriented effort to promote other paths of
                                                      production. For example, despite substantial per     development. The significance of structural
                                                      unit reductions in organic pollution in various      change becomes perhaps even more clear when
                                                      food-processing industries, the end-result was       we consider some of the more serious environ-
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      that water consumption and organic pollution         mental problems facing the world, such as the
                                                      was unchanged; only the fish-processing indus-       enhanced greenhouse effect.
                                                      try had achieved a modest reduction in CO2
                                                      emissions, although it had been a major target
                                                      of the subsidy programme.                            From simple to serious problems
                                                         By contrast, more promising and lasting re-
                                                      sults were attained where more radical substitu-
                                                                                                           The neoclassical efficiency perspective on natu-
                                                      tions and technology innovations had taken
                                                                                                           ral and environmental resources tends to neglect
                                                      place. For example, in the wood and furniture
                                                                                                           the wider systemic limits to economic growth.
                                                      industry, volatile organic compound (VOC)
                                                                                                           Recent innovative contributions to environmen-
                                                      emissions were eliminated, thanks to the devel-
                                                      opment of complete substitutes to conventional       tal economics, for instance, from ecological
                                                      production technology. The modernization of          economists and of a more interdisciplinary na-
                                                      production that followed with the innovative         ture, have served to highlight these limits. The
                                                      machinery also improved the work environ-            concept of ecological utilization space, as devel-
                                                      ment. In addition, it provided an additional         oped by Opschoor & Weterings (1994), under-
                                                      dividend to the manufacturers due to enhanced        lines the delicate interplay between the present
                                                      labour productivity. The improved labour pro-        use of the environment and the possible result-
                                                      ductivity was created through a revolution in        ing decrease in future consumption and utility
                                                      the entire work process, based on a world            opportunities. In particular, the use of non-
                                                      patent on lacquering that was soon to be             renewable resources exhausts the resource base
                                                      adopted by the leading international manufac-        and demands careful consideration over the pos-
                                                      turers in this sector. A similar, although less      sible transformation into other and more lasting
                                                      spectacular, pattern was found in other indus-       types of capital (Pearce et al., 1989). Population
                                                      tries, such as the graphic industry, where water-    growth (from 6 to 11 billion in the 21st century
                                                      based inks replaced the conventional types.          according to UN forecasts) is another crucial
                                                         There is some disagreement in the literature      factor that affects the scarcity and pressure on
                                                      on ecological modernization as to whether it,        environmental and natural resources.
                                                      by definition, involves structural changes. How-        Consider, for example, the emissions of
                                                      ever, the results of the Danish programme lead       greenhouse gases, particularly CO2. Present car-
                                                      us to suggest (along with other contributions to     bon emissions are estimated to be in the mag-
                                                      this Special Issue) that a simple efficiency revo-   nitude of 6–7 giga-tons per year, while the
                                                      Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.                      J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)
                                                      Origins, Dilemmas and Future Directions                                                             343
                                                      assimilative capacity of the natural environment    the Club of Rome had ended. We think that the
                                                      is in the magnitude of just 3 giga-tons per year    time has come to rearticulate and clarify the
                                                      (Houghton, 1997). As a result, a build-up of        meaning of ecological modernization. Several of
                                                      CO2 takes place in the atmosphere. Its concen-      the contributions to this Special Issue venture
                                                      tration has increased from 270 ppm in pre-          into such clarification. There has been an unfor-
                                                      industrial times to about 360 ppm at the            tunate ambiguity in much of the existing litera-
                                                      present. According to the projections of the        ture, which has made it commonplace to
                                                      World Energy Council, annual CO2 emissions          consider ecological modernization simply as a
                                                      will, as a result of economic and population        form of production rationalization. Although
                                                      growth and in a business-as-usual scenario, more    the contributions here do not end the discus-
                                                      than double before the end of the 21st century,     sion, we think that the emphasis on structural
                                                      corresponding to a CO2 concentration of about       change and consistency is pertinent.
                                                      650 ppm. The IPCC warns that as a result of            Once such an emphasis is accepted as the
                                                      such a concentration, the global mean tempera-      proper starting point for ecological moderniza-
                                                      ture can be expected to increase by 1.2–4.5         tion, it becomes necessary to reflect more care-
                                                      degrees centigrade before the end of the cen-       fully on the role of the state. Much of the
                                                      tury (ibid., p. 92). Although many uncertainties    literature on ecological modernization seems to
                                                      still envelop the issue of climate change with      suggest that there are win–win solutions and
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      the speed of global warming and its specific        low-hanging £10 notes, which will make busi-
                                                      consequences, the basics referred to here remain    nesses and industries venture on an ecological
                                                      fairly well understood.                             modernization path of their own. Although sev-
                                                         The accumulation of CO2 is primarily a con-      eral such examples have indeed been provided,
                                                      sequence of unprecedented burning of fossil         we are reluctant to accept the premise that a
                                                      fuels. Even business-as-usual scenarios assume a    far-reaching eco-modernization will come about
                                                      certain annual level of energy efficiency im-       merely as a result of new insights in business
                                                      provement (Houghton, 1997, p. 193). Clearly,        board rooms. One does not have to subscribe to
                                                      efficiency at an improved level is only a neces-    neoclassical views to contend that the gains of
                                                      sary, but far from sufficient, measure to cut CO2   environmental management fall short of the
                                                      emissions to a sustainable level. The climate       imperatives of the challenges of the more seri-
                                                      change problem is a particularly difficult prob-    ous environmental problems.
                                                      lem, not only because of its global nature, but        In this paper, we have tried to underline the
                                                      also owing to its intricate connection with the     inherent conceptual linkage between ecological
                                                      dynamics of population growth and because of        modernization and the precautionary principle,
                                                      the timelags involved. The inherent dynamics of     and the latter principle suggests, in fact, that the
                                                      economic and population growth imply that           state has a rather significant role to play for
                                                      most energy-efficiency gains are likely to be       establishing the pathways towards ecological
                                                      offset by growth and population-breeding fac-       modernization. A truly precautionary approach
                                                      tors. At the same time, there is time pressure      requires the identification of different and inno-
                                                      owing to the gradual accumulation of excess         vative technologies, that substitute materials and
                                                      emissions in the atmosphere as time passes with-    processes in unprecedented ways. Unfortu-
                                                      out sufficient action being taken.                  nately, the role of the state so far has been more
                                                                                                          or less neglected in the ecological moderniza-
                                                                                                          tion literature, although, implicitly, the need for
                                                                                                          intervention has long been recognized. For ex-
                                                      Outlook and future prospects for                    ample, the use of price signals—that is, by
                                                      ecological modernization                            means of ecotax reform—with the purpose of
                                                                                                          promoting a new path of development, requires
                                                      The concept of ecological modernization was         state intervention. Also, implementation of the
                                                      formed well before problems of climate change       precautionary principle relies heavily on science
                                                      were conceptualized and well after the alert of     and technological development; and even
                                                      Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.                     J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)
                                                      344                                                                                            M.S. Andersen and I. Massa
                                                      though the state is not the only relevant actor,                   4. Although the strategy indeed was derived from
                                                      it is hard to see how the necessary promotion                         several different sources (such as the Brundtland
                                                      and support can be established without a role                         report), Delors and members of his think-tank,
                                                      played by the public authorities.                                     Cellule de Prospective, have, in interviews, quoted
                                                                                                                            certain German intellectuals as their main source
                                                         The acknowledgement that an eco-modernist                          of inspiration for the environmental chapter in
                                                      rationalization is unlikely to come about on its                      their White Paper (Klok, 1999).
                                                      own, but will follow only if nurtured through a                    5. Neoclassical environmental economists refer to
                                                      deliberate and far-sighted intervention policy,                       ecological modernization as the Porter hypothesis,
                                                      seems to suggest the need to confront some of                         after an article by Porter and the Swiss economist
                                                      the neo-liberal rhetoric inherent in the ecologi-                     Van der Linde, who stipulated employment and
                                                      cal modernization literature. ‘Win–win solu-                          competition advantages from environmental regu-
                                                      tions’ and ‘getting the prices right’ do not follow                   lations (Porter & Van der Linde, 1995).
                                                      on from laissez-faire, but require intervention of a
                                                      scope and quality that is likely to strain the
                                                      capacity of many a regulatory state. In our view,                  References
                                                      the ecological modernization debate should,
                                                      therefore, end the subscription to efficiency                      Andersen MS. 1994. Green tax reform in Denmark.
                                                                                                                           Environmental Politics 3: 139–145.
                                                      rhetoric, because it needs to begin to address                     Andersen MS, Jørgensen U. 1995. Evaluation of
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      issues of governance capacity much more ex-                          the cleaner technology programme. http://
                                                      plicitly, consciously and cautiously.                                www.mst.dk/doclibrary/pdf/87-7810-886-1.pdf [2
                                                                                                                           February 2000].
                                                                                                                         Barker T, Köhler J (eds). 1998. International Competitive-
                                                      Notes                                                                ness and Environmental Policies. Edward Elgar:
                                                                                                                           Cheltenham.
                                                                                                                         BMI (Bundesministerium des Innern). 1984. Dritter
                                                      1. It is interesting to note that a parallel concept of              Immissionsschutzbericht, Drucksache 10/1345. Bun-
                                                         ‘ecodevelopment’ appeared even earlier in France,                 desministerium des Innern: Bonn.
                                                         where the Polish social scientist Sachs summarized              Boehmer-Christiansen S. 1994. The precautionary
                                                         his ideas in a book entitled Stratégies de l’écodéveloppe-     principle in Germany: enabling government. In
                                                         ment (Sachs, 1980). The theory of ecodevelopment                  Interpreting the Precautionary Principle, O’Riordan T,
                                                         does not call for a dismantling of ‘capitalism’                   Cameron J (eds). Earthscan Publications: London;
                                                         altogether, but focuses rather on the search for                  31–61.
                                                         changes that are more palatable culturally in life-             Brunowsky R-D, Wicke L. 1984. Der O8 ko-Plan: Durch
                                                         styles, as well as in production and consumption                  Umweltschutz zum neuen Wirtschaftswunder. Piper:
                                                         patterns, social policies, systems of political deci-             München.
                                                         sion-making, and in international cooperation.                  Burckhardt J. 1996. Aktuelle Fragen zur Zukunft der
                                                         The concept of ecodevelopment apparently did                      Industriegesellschaft. In Zukunft der Indus-
                                                         not overcome the French language barrier (cf.                     triegesellschaft, Fricke W, Oetzel V (eds). Friedrich
                                                         Vaillancourt, 1995), or development research in                   Ebert Stiftung: Bonn; 7–10.
                                                         which Sachs has been involved. On the other                     Commission of the European Communities (CEC).
                                                         hand, Sachs is reported to have been a guest                      1993. Growth, Competitiveness, Employment: The Chal-
                                                         researcher at the International Institute for Envi-               lenges and Ways Forward into the 21st Century. White
                                                         ronment and Development in Berlin in the 1980s.                   Paper, COM/93/700 final, 5.12.1993. Office for
                                                      2. The first scrubbers installed in Germany in the                   Official Publications of the European Communi-
                                                         early 1980s were imported from Japan, via the                     ties: Luxembourg.
                                                         trans-Siberian railway.                                         Commission of the European Communities (CEC).
                                                      3. Unfortunately, the analysis of environmental is-                  DG for Environmental Policy. 1994. Potential Bene-
                                                         sues has largely been separated from the contem-                  fits of Integration of Environmental and Economic Policies:
                                                         porary discussion on the future of the welfare                    An Incentive Based Approach to Policy Integration. Gra-
                                                         state, which conventionally focuses on the ‘big                   ham and Trotman: London.
                                                         five’ (social security, housing, education, health              Ekins P. 1997. On the dividends from environmental
                                                         and social services, as well as the required resource             taxation. In Ecotaxation, O’Riordan T (ed.). Earth-
                                                         transfers).                                                       scan Publications: London; 125–162.
                                                      Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.                                      J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)
                                                      Origins, Dilemmas and Future Directions                                                                              345
                                                      Goulder LH. 1994. Environmental taxation and the                  Modernization Theory and the Chemical Industry. Van
                                                          double dividend: a reader’s guide. Working Paper              Arkel: Utrecht.
                                                          4896, National Bureau of Economic Research,                 Nishimura H (ed.). 1989. How to Conquer Air Pollution:
                                                          Cambridge, MA.                                                A Japanese Experience. Elsevier: Amsterdam.
                                                      Hajer M. 1995. The Politics of Environmental Discourse:         Opschoor H, Weterings R. 1994. Environmental
                                                          Ecological Modernization and the Policy Process. Oxford       utilisation space: an introduction. Netherlands Journal
                                                          University Press: Oxford.                                     of Environmental Sciences 9: 198–205.
                                                      Houghton J. 1997. Global Warming: The Complete Brief-           Pearce D, Markandya A, Barbier EB. 1989. Blueprint
                                                          ing. Cambridge University Press: Cambridge.                   for a Green Economy. Earthscan Publications: Lon-
                                                      Huber J. 1982. Die verlorene Unschuld der O8 kologie.             don.
                                                          Fischer Verlag: Frankfurt am Main.                          Porter ME, Linde C van der. 1995. Toward a new
                                                      Huber J. 1985. Die Regenbogengesellschaft: O8 kologie und         conception of the environment–competitiveness
                                                          Sozialpolitik. S. Fischer: Frankfurt am Main.                 relationship. Journal of Economic Perspectives 9(4):
                                                      Jänicke M. 1984. Umweltpolitische Prävention als                97–118.
                                                          O8 kologische Modernisierung und Strukturpolitik, IIUG dp   Sachs I. 1980. Stratégies de l’ecodéveloppment. Editions
                                                          84-1. Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin: Berlin.                    Ouvrières: Paris.
                                                      Jänicke M. 1988. O8 kologische Modernisierung. Op-             Springmann F. 1986. Steuerreform zum Abbau von Arbeits-
                                                          tionen und Restriktionen präventiver Umweltpoli-             losigkeit und Umweltbelastung—ein Szenario, IIUG dp
                                                          tik. In Präventive Umweltpolitik, Simonis U (ed.).           86-11. Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin: Berlin.
                                                          Campus: Frankfurt am Main; 13 – 26.                         Vaillancourt J-G. 1995. Sustainable development: a
Downloaded by [FU Berlin] at 09:47 26 November 2014
                                                      Klok J. 1999. Negotiating EC CO2/energy taxation:                 sociologist’s view of the definition, origins and
                                                          Danish influences. Mimeo. Amternes og Kom-                    implications of the concept. In Environmental Sociol-
                                                          munernes Forskningsinstitut: Copenhagen.                      ogy: Theory and Practice, Mechta MD, Quellet E
                                                      Lafontaine O. 1996. O8 kologische Modernisierung                  (eds). Captus Press: York.
                                                          der Industriegesellschaft. In Zukunft der Indus-            Weidner H. 1986. Japan: The Success and Limitations of
                                                          triegesellschaft, Fricke W, Oetzel V (eds). Friedrich         Technocratic Environmental Policy, IIUG pre 86-1.
                                                          Ebert Stiftung: Bonn; 31 – 39.                                Wissenschaftszentrum Berlin: Berlin.
                                                      Lundqvist L. 2000. Capacity-building or social con-             Weizsäcker EU von, Jesinghaus J. 1992. Ecological
                                                          struction: explaining Sweden’s shift towards eco-             Tax Reform. Zed Books: London.
                                                          logical modernisation. Geoforum 31: 21 – 32.                Weizsäcker EU von. 1990. Erdpolitik: O8 kologische Real-
                                                      Majocchi A. 1994. The Employment Effect of Eco-Taxes.             politik an der Schwelle zum Jahrhundert der Umwelt.
                                                         Department of Economics, University of Pavia:                  Wissenschaftliche Buchgesellschaft: Darmstadt.
                                                         Pavia.                                                       Wicke L. 1982. Umweltökonomie: Eine praxisorientierte
                                                      McCoy D. 1997. Reflections on the double dividend                 Einführung. Piper: München.
                                                         debate. In Ecotaxation, O’Riordan T (ed.). Earthscan         Zimmermann K. 1990. Zur Anatomie des Vor-
                                                         Publications: London; 201 – 214.                               sorgeprinzips. Aus Politik und Zeitgeschichte 6/90:
                                                      Mol A. 1995. The Refinement of Production: Ecological             3–14.
Copyright © 2000 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. J. Environ. Policy Plann. 2: 337–345 (2000)