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Mtcs Probability

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104 views53 pages

Mtcs Probability

Uploaded by

OPOKA ALBERT
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— eee = cand as wrillen aS pave 3 ‘probatsiiay ay of A and Bee 4) 9 vim avenis ace and eck ty 4 probebiill Hoe! ‘ ah aol, i P (Ani) probability of A mkexckon & ny ond Bo Shoum - ma he Nery Orsdey ee exents A ace) + PCB) = I - - 7008) = £ And) + PLAN) + PCANB) —Pthas)_s Pla) + FF An Byo twp PB) 78) + PUnb) oY “plavd) = 1- PNB) Pre) = I~ pina). >) _ or PUB) = PA + pCAné) = or PCAvB) = POR) + PCB) ~ PCAniB p(Av8)_=1-PUAnB) = 2 (fu8) = Pte) + PLAnB) or ae Phun) = pla) + pte) - PCAnB) Por Hwee events AL B and C , Whe pobaiy of 2 A_ecuving _er_event & occuring or event C ocewring 5 _ the | grobebilihy Pak ables one of He qvents occuys : and bt iS weilen as P(AvBve) and iy _defined by — pravauc) = P(A) PCA)+ PCe)— Pn B)~ Pane) * plBnc PlAn ant oe i Pook \ pavouc) = phsv ceed) : pChvBuc) = PA)+ p (aVO-? CAn cov) ) plAvboc) = P)r PCa) 4 Ce) ~ PCan®) p-pCAb)s ies ae _ | pfva) = pL. Pras) aay a pUim®. = 730 p Unb) LI p(Avé) = ars (Ann) p(B) iP a AN - plans yaw Calg 2 Cina) 7 fo rts nen - iy 3BI% > Y 95 : Ele : a ry Salalion PLAvBd = PCB) PCAWAY YF Pays 2g. p(B) - Boo | Phas) P(%) = etAe® PO = PL Aan. > Ae pnd) _ Yo oe oe pla) + PCB) = 2nd) Pere + a = pth) | but = PUA) = 88 Us) = 4 0D. — Pint = “p(B)~ PlAn® = =e ath 10D Gi vale %4 aA = k. r ge &)- plAnb» SS iv 0(K)= om . | * Sb) . say | X) ee | —————— ee ee ae “Oud evenr A end 8 2°24 YS plAnb') = ie and #(%)= Fa ‘ 3 Pans) = 7% Trey p(B) > % a - |i 2CB,) > 72 ; aac Ore 0 Gun evenly Aand B wt sveln tod Pas y 0(6)2 %4 —end_eC%e)= 42 Rind» w@ Ln® * % 5 y ° PA QnS | Given drat $l 2 % 2 3. and P(Y | And PAB) @ * » i) Pg) tp 2 Bg — Pe pa ! Guéen andl * ei gs 7 PB) = 0-1 on, ee 2 events sue tat AA) co Pltup) VO td _ p Avg) — —= a ae S eat FCDA). A od B ae wae tad PUB> ows ote om A) 2 0288+ fil. “ pCna) Gn 6 Eien nb A and B aie. = 44 ent 008) = so ee ok (4s) : Oni? Awe even and G. are sv tet PM)= yy PB)= hand £( 9%) = 9 > Pad= . sp(AvB) oe pPCy) _ _ Qn B Giton flr PCAnB) = Mo — p( B= 4 and (9) 2 Ard PC) = % Gis PCARB) = 1 yo foo even’ AF and Ba ue + gtk Hed pd % Gn (¥%) = 4 ard p(%) =. Anal - __ CNS PC) 2 nog aed Bare. secle put PA)SOE Gn 102 fo co of and pvp) 26 = Ors sot 2a b= 2H Pid And Roo endigenen! events A and Bae Seb tat pg land pCAvia = Ya © find call Pua) | ccxclusive verb , and Gnto; A,B ond 6 ove Bowens such thal PID= & Pas and PCO? fo» Riel plAvBxC). gitem teats — do Band © am muy 1A and 68 are _tidependewd ~cvends, A and Core mutually excuse Rs WAU few free tvoute are independent + “50 | All. Ha’ fliee -evenbr ave mmohvelly certlusive~ “ho hy PlAvboQ).= 2A) 4°CB) 4 PEC) = PCANB) “i Pvbud)_ = PAPC) 4 PCe)-P Ano) -P CAn = PBN +P gnc “a Pemba) = PHD PCB) PCR) | lea: gud © are gvck Hac 3PCAnb)= APCin’)- Ons 18 Events Pp lAnB B+ find Lalit seme ot a Sic a ~ Dis % [frobabilih, of (Aer 6 but not loth An 6 Gn 22 Ine chin gaya of_peaple, its _nwm iat 10h | fotball, 20% tile bsket ball ‘and 25/6 ile frotbal © Lo |__| basket balls 1 «person closer ak _nyrcem Rem Hegre Pind Hea _probabilihy Hsu shel ov che liter 5, ——W] fortball_omd beuket ball’ 2 rib batkeb ball given teat he ited frotball % Wa clleast_one_0? the Jeans i¢_o-Qs Fine! ff Pr, dla randomly toelemas. t Hee Petball Jecm is 06 and Hee chess feam $5 0°5 + The scam Hat he ety : baby Qn Bs tn a crdatr school, Her probabitily Hat a boy fut shetenge citer ty fhe Reotbell fem or chev! [wt not bet ¢ I I = 4 Tena v 9. pudemts ares Rif 2. \ ee see ra (QnAe Wie cerlain rs eae io eee | staclon fe, 65 Ie of the studewb are i ‘ | oheceats are male jand ell Hare + cles 2 a Gy Me prebabitty Mat Ke wtadeal me” 2 £ —- _ |e female and All Ame» 0 natin a Gi) Parentage of stalends clea Seinale cud ad rundorn 75. = es md 7 Gu Ss for0_rniged— ofl ol his ite is +6 + ——— _/is_ompleyed. is Saf and Hast of — a ey ‘he pbalhy Hal ebleas one 08 Hea 9 One L ec) = (i, Bad Me probabilty Hed ta ig ead ici BAP tte utbard..isosemplges, Fie a pee os / feats empl : “Wen 64.00 2 oain fia_pobaithy thas Amat goes ead ls Tie on wie ao tay By tas ba goer oz “ “atte goer ad 8 A,,, + Find Ha_probailih | Hat ob 64 matny hag = Ye @n 22 Offin_goes fb work by mule Aor B He probably lek he cheeses ovte Ais. ky ee pre balilihy Qe ae tale Sor wove. fad be gees Me mule Ais 9, and he emeypondihi.—pribabslly 8 be goes fa _roste Bil fo — “Wdlal athe presley tus he a lobe for wom « Hq Giiten feel tyr és (ale Sov werk, Pir Ha _prbbaloiihy Hort [he went via rode Bs Ge toe, 4 Oni A boy A cones one ulitp. bell ond 4 Michell Bx 8 conten only 2 shite ‘balls 's “A tox a5 selected th random and Han a balls spiked! Prom ih at rancor. {Find fee probab| at 4 b “ Sm = oe = = | -POL= P CRB) ov p(B) nB2) Rawr 4 | (27d) 14%) | iS. 30. jeelg bells and bor Banta 3 rec rentckmilyy Bom A_and Placec fem 8 and placed ony fom A, find the Qh Box A antsins 3 ved and 4h Jand 2 black balls. One ball as selected B+ A trail 9s then Selected at raven i A if thembler a ball 15. randomly picked probability Hed 5 . a —— Bath balls picked Bon _A_ove. back + Me ball ts red + Gaba) « PCA nBia by) —— GROMER) | [bail We veel + Gy $4 ii : | | PROPABLIGY — DISTRIBUTIOAL Random Variable 2 2 ‘ i ~ { iT A_Nanible can, be defihed 0g = chavecterste Wet coon rable are associated ! Lasseme + valves, Sine_N veith pwobatilligs, they cre _eclled!__ renee verte _| _ Ronde variables can ether be clescrete ow — cant ings: : Seereie —Reincdow _Neirterlgley , 26 7 | A damrcte Tee ee Newiable that hes vawes thes con — line counted ie exach values 9g af a _dee’%4¢ tosed and Leb x represent the possible cut cerme X= 1, a 3, #, $46 - — : the seloctensh'ya tam Hee possible _srerlves of a random _ __| Wats bole cind the cowesponding probabiries “s_calledl Hex ___ >| prob. _dishibouhin ec_prob- donsihy funchin C Pdf) of He random valuable denoled by fe) er p (X= 2c) eget ‘ 2 The _probabiilehy —d esirlovtion when a die as tossed 1 gs Ven i H dat) io) = a ta Ts Tels Te [poe] %@ Ve [% le 4 Lane sim of fh _pbatiies forall He wee % 1% of xX as 1 mean oy _-eapectehion of 2c is ts_shnoled by — E (20) and defined by | ___ : = x P(X) _ eC) = 2 als tw cad be constants, then " so able ee = Ee Cax) + Eb) | brewled by — Nar (6c) Yor) deed 109 [feetay see) — Tec EGS) = 4% PIXE) alla Kole fa ond b are onttonds , Hun Na a3d) ‘+ 0% yur (oc) . — fi Mar(axth) = ~tr (ax) # verl 6) - = a vorlx) + 0 @ = ar yar(o) phe 4 mede_of x : 9 il 7 | Ghe rede 15 fra _veloe of Oc uit hou fe haighes! _ pre Example: _ My A Pair coin 45 fussed 3 hmes + 1P X48 the ramccrm vebidble ij Me _mecon Sy the N& of peads oblemedl, delerwiing ihe proba ichy |dusbe tin of 2¢ and hence, cclewlede aoe 39, Ane_vaviance a Goln coe i] eco = 2 2 Plx=x) ioe I altar x oO 1 a eee Pixex) %& % % 8 == " CXR) F CXR) + O*%)3 CX) gee Nor (x) = zxi (Pore epitp ep O28) 23 OBS - ty ese = 07S 3 pony are dram A Javad’ 6 hive ond 4 ved pens += naa “if x wa ah rend, One ab @ hime without replacment « rondorn_Naviable for Hu 2 — ot ive _pens droum + Belerming 5- The_prbailty—duivibvhin of A : bt mode of X - mean of X s fury Naviance oP 20 Sik 5 | mencao- Cx) = Zoe POE a a *(AEF@ %) FOZ y Wg) = Rb —L__ que Dee (x) = Zo°pGzx) (Ee) a Gr 2X 4)E @&) # (WS) + Ceey5 ~ (a = 5g 49 }A_ descrele sander arvable ot hase AE rset V2, SAS L fF Uo es res of pp ser eto. bee PCED sRCr= ay ~-y3pCy=3) _% Ze eas He Se A. % 1% ‘he ae 6 get ‘x 6@)= aa ey) = <= £587 BS 6 ¢ —Nueo_2 5 = (028\* = ast (6 ‘6 mess ae ee fa) £245 the duscrele_randem varéble ft, A Pdf Aaa) = for 2G), A2,Ryam = Ln _o Mren Hy _wrrespendiy Je-BeF denshed by PCa) er PO S20) is defined by ees Ca ee ae —— i fe fete eget _p ines are we df e5_ ines erm a el_the_endiidad _probobileties Lips ny if ncdéin of 2 |__e_mesian of ¢ sheele rankn verabe oo He~ : et a _such. that cepitel Flax) is atleast OF || befermine + _ the vawe of _ : = rae Kamen eof oe cdf Fed wy) Narance of oe ne of oc D) a. poole. ae [ Sn — / - Gl Krak FES KtEK Akt aK> | Z oo : a - ee Buy - [4 + wd oe @ 1 a 3 14 Ss a poxsce) | Yay | 7 ‘ye lm |%e |4a | y L 4 13 WwW od Foo |. a4 6 re ms basal iil -med@n = 2 : mt iy mode = 2 ; - -. Se yl eto = Zarare) . & e + QXb + Bx [Xp + £Xp bs a ee a a < . = ag Zr Wl vekx) = 22 pen) = fea)? _ 2 OXY. + ihe att a $16 AL PASH - 4 cp : . em foe jhe a een BINOMIAL Dis FRI AUTIOAR Binomed SPI : 1 on xpetnnenk well repeated Ariel + 2g Wshen coin Ss tose fo vmes, each vial has only 2 ible sutcomes, W@ -weeess and Suifore- ~ The trials _are_mdependent and othe + poh of Yuccess -comains_cemstant + _ pA pid ae Kinowied expt is calles! abs - if 4a _dhscrele random waste uab follows _& Breriuad dishibution_, Hien 4iis_is_denotecl boy 5, - i Ke u8 Crip) and “ts Pdf is _uritlen ass a ar [Pace = GEE He SSS SS = here 4. 7 n_— number of trials £ Success _oc_= num ber , = Pro babilihy of sucess —pebebls of failuce —_pcombrhedios x _ Snore! ats sahion _— J yalue ey men. of a) Cane ® | expect I and vewrvance oP 16 _given- by Bee Ap ee pe a eee ret | |. aS Me probably Fert Moses wind a game ig Ye, 6 games, find the prvbabily dled tre wind 5 W eXacly one gene * dy atleast 2 games (xz a= PCtza) 4pOr=8) +p Orq)+ POS) + PG 6)_ ato CF NTf Heer ayy 2 UG Taq Plaza) 2 1-922) - \ oh eG] ee ==? = : as A. batch of 10 nails a6 moved fom a machine oul pul us dekciere + Frit jhe probe bility thot the bedeh condainy 3 no defective nails mere than five defechive meils « (econ ee = 010060 1 y : {Ub Casing, nerd dables_mdandecl stems) ee pla=x) = Blnx,P) : Paz) = 8 Cio, 0, 0) 0006! = ONS + orcH2gt 01 910E $9'0016 forooo] = 066.3 = = Fas) = (ales Neel + COO (genet , plx>s) = pre) +PGeDt pOrsa) + PRG) + PEX=10) ro Tee = (eget + CH) Coot (A__shdont answers three guestions, the chance _of_getting each La comect 1s M3» Pind He probabiilth, of obleniing all_the questions. correct #77 _ Aeros} a questions _comerh_-* Vor 18,3 and A are Reo fair’ 4eha hedral cia each yumbered Hee op faces ot once and the sum of the numbers on iL Yhey ore theum 6 -himes , Pind te prbbalility wun of 3 aHeast A times = 09030 7 Harowe coded + of cbicinina, a ing, U ove nom: For every 20 glasses duced lay @ mach = 3 +f oO 4g Seilecled, Fin Icfective » tf a _canckrn sample of 18 geses pony Baae _&) Cracks 8 gieses_ore defective = 0164? ; : iy Mmost “1 glasses ave defective 2 1652 dne_prbablly oP ping o..gi) _egg,“m_a.basled is _013- a ainl choses 6 cogs GF vandem fern He basket te _ prepa breakfast, find. fua_pmbalilify_ thod Meo_249s inthe _choite gre bacl = o-auss with « Giple sho 4 ont + —1 RR fm —— Ana cerdein gone a. prbebitity of shooting a. geek [angel Find the Necsh number of shovis we should be drikecl so Hed fae Probab, that Ku deuget us Kid Hens? on 3 grea, than 6°87 a elution __ gene ave pee) > 087 plese) £013, = a : “Gea ea sos ow £03. 2 a weg 018 = ogientSi ~0099 Nn ~ O'S EEI in BH _-O'B8EL ‘ bo 7 ~0: 08G4_- a ne igs _ _ c n2l0 S - | A. dais bused sob Heat Hee prebitlailty of getihe, jt Sdhon tis die 5 toon medan fies bh © and Bg ep = - mtam-6S 20 i m 21-1386, “m= 7 37336 Tho medion tf 7386 fae EG-%) pasocey _ —\ 06 otherwise | [ pMkseca Fe///(/ ile JA sctinos tonkn serie oc Ket a pdf given fey « __ PHP Fy The _medinn of 2 betecminig 4 — fies __ brn Fe) ie Fey 168 2 obf¥ ha corhnoes ier sins, por 4a) econ Vahking, 1, then Qn A cerdioss arden “oriole Was 4 oe 1 mee l a +r) © 5 C6 xk It —Feg-= St ' | Y(Cdareasj) 1 1ene? \ 1 1 mee | Belermines D, the wie of k 5) Hea pdt Fey cy), pCoce os) iy) the meditin of a Sn FQ) =1- | kCasteoc) = I | KL ao%-o41) = 1 | Kael | 4 di fe 2 Fos for 20 Fas #£e] 8 | Lor GFRE1 Sea =—) ay @ 4 e[ x) cannon 43 Cena, 2% Perey = _ UNIFORM oR RECTAN GULAR ~BISTRy Woo sw 4 confines randam — var(able 7 Hace fal «_rechangular er uniforms distibvtion Rom a. ay oe eb, tren this 5 denoled boy xu RCa,b) a fis _given lays —_____ ft 4 qédnxeb . b-9 — 0 1 Elsewhere oe and can be represented graphically as Shown _hetes | mean and vartante of a reclamgstar dtthllte if XR Cab), tren the expected wale oe mean of 2% 4s given bys — = [ Pook: af Xm RGab), Han He | %s_given doy ea : a“exsh— pe OS A 4 eu : x fedex ax A | ew €@ = 1-|xde b-a tet ae © Bb) > ~ = a | —43-d)_ eer = = _-a)C bia) a 2(b-4) a 6c =i Cbte)—— yo = €@%)= Cec) a | 6) = tte cle TS ee a} b wk a tool | 2 ba 3(b-2) ~ = -a Ca? b Leb) - a 3 (b-a) = 6A (42+b?4ab) _ See eee = +— py (ada } dab — be éab- Set = Vo i 5 = ate = 2@- a~ Given that Xe G18, find > the valoe of b Cab NORMAL DISTRI BVTWAY a —— SS anew af x s aeowtmoys random veriable +i, eal ol distubuhion wrfle moon LW arel Poltows Nervene ge 2 iT x z Stendeurd —Alermal _diiributers Ges __af_a_sspeciel ef _nevmal _dufgilbution wiih _@_mean of Zur and. a _rarena of 4 q A. rndan ravialle 2 that Rllows a _mermal_ stone lditiwhen «called a andard nermal var@ble. _ ecause 6 main aus vorccnee are foro fre __tolal oven ender fle shandewd normal cures | ee _£ ag - PCoszay) = OS O33 = O'1SS7 yj eS a oe 630-600 2 ~ pCoxaeo-s) a 1 2 Sebago = o-jere + cs =o 2/7 bal Given Yhok _xei{(s0, 626) find: ene) fy PC yess 225 85:58) of NE OF children = aYS70 X0!14F0 2y,32/.26 | : _Aosignnest > ty Given at — Xwal(4o, 4) © PCx>43) 0: 0668 — id PCat se 2c-2 42-5) 012024 __ 2 —@nal Giver wat xo Ga, 4) Fired — , of R17) o.coga i) PCA ZWEAID) 0 6747 PC X <10) 061587 _ a O13! Given that ee (Sr, ag) finds a ia POL 225) 0456? is PC ak xcs) 0° 016 os ih PCa > 40) 03340 — Gnu| Given Hed Xe dCs, 256) Fine _s - PCx<40) 01408 ‘city PCso

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