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ASSIGNMENT-01
Q. 1 Critically discuss the role of finance manager in modern
corporate business with examples.
A financial manger is a person who takes care of all the important financial
functions of an organization. The person in charge should maintain a far
sightedness in order to ensure that the funds are utilized in the most efficient
manner.
His/Her actions directly affect the Profitability, growth and goodwill of the firm.
Following are the main functions of a Financial Manager:
1. Raising of Funds
In order to meet the obligation of the business it is important to have
enough cash and liquidity. A firm can raise funds by the way of equity
and debt. It is the responsibility of a financial manager to decide the
ratio between debt and equity. It is important to maintain a good balance
between equity and debt.
2. Allocation of Funds
Once the funds are raised through different channels the next important
function is to allocate the funds. The funds should be allocated in such a
manner that they are optimally used. In order to allocate funds in the
best possible manner the following point must be considered
0. The size of the firm and its growth capability
CAPM does this by using the expected return on both the market and a
risk-free asset, and the asset's correlation or sensitivity to the market
(beta).
Despite its issues, the CAPM formula is still widely used because it is simple
and allows for easy comparisons of investment alternatives.
The formula for calculating the expected return of an asset, given its risk, is as
follows:
Investors expect to be compensated for risk and the time value of money.
The risk-free rate in the CAPM formula accounts for the time value of money. The
other components of the CAPM formula account for the investor taking on
additional risk.
The goal of the CAPM formula is to evaluate whether a stock is fairly valued
when its risk and the time value of money are compared with its expected return.
In other words, by knowing the individual parts of the CAPM, it is possible to
gauge whether the current price of a stock is consistent with its likely return.
The beta of a potential investment is a measure of how much risk the investment
will add to a portfolio that looks like the market. If a stock is riskier than the
market, it will have a beta greater than one. If a stock has a beta of less than one,
the formula assumes it will reduce the risk of a portfolio.
A stock’s beta is then multiplied by the market risk premium, which is the return
expected from the market above the risk-free rate. The risk-free rate is then added
to the product of the stock’s beta and the market risk premium. The result should
give an investor the required return or discount rate that they can use to find the
value of an asset.
For example, imagine an investor is contemplating a stock valued at $100
per share today that pays a 3% annual dividend. Say that this stock has a beta
compared with the market of 1.3, which means it is more volatile than a broad
market portfolio (i.e., the S&P 500 index). Also, assume that the risk-free rate is
3% and this investor expects the market to rise in value by 8% per year.
The expected return of the stock based on the CAPM formula is 9.5%:
\begin{aligned} &9.5\% = 3\% + 1.3 \times ( 8\% - 3\% ) \\ \end{aligned}
9.5%=3%+1.3×(8%−3%)
The expected return of the CAPM formula is used to discount the expected
dividends and capital appreciation of the stock over the expected holding period.
If the discounted value of those future cash flows is equal to $100, then the CAPM
formula indicates the stock is fairly valued relative to risk.
Unrealistic Assumptions
Several assumptions behind the CAPM formula have been shown not to hold up in
reality. Modern financial theory rests on two assumptions:
1. Securities markets are very competitive and efficient (that is, relevant
information about the companies is quickly and universally distributed and
absorbed).
As a result, it’s not entirely clear whether CAPM works. The big sticking point is
beta. When professors Eugene Fama and Kenneth French looked at share returns
on the New York Stock Exchange, the American Stock Exchange, and Nasdaq,
they found that differences in betas over a lengthy period did not explain the
performance of different stocks. The linear relationship between beta and
individual stock returns also breaks down over shorter periods of time. These
findings seem to suggest that CAPM may be wrong.2
Including beta in the formula assumes that risk can be measured by a stock’s
price volatility. However, price movements in both directions are not equally
risky. The look-back period to determine a stock’s volatility is not standard
because stock returns (and risk) are not normally distributed.
The CAPM also assumes that the risk-free rate will remain constant over the
discounting period. Assume in the previous example that the interest rate on U.S.
Treasury bonds rose to 5% or 6% during the 10-year holding period. An increase
in the risk-free rate also increases the cost of the capital used in the investment
and could make the stock look overvalued.
Estimating the Risk Premium
The market portfolio used to find the market risk premium is only a theoretical
value and is not an asset that can be purchased or invested in as an alternative to
the stock. Most of the time, investors will use a major stock index, like the S&P
500, to substitute for the market, which is an imperfect comparison.
The most serious critique of the CAPM is the assumption that future cash flows
can be estimated for the discounting process. If an investor could estimate the
future return of a stock with a high level of accuracy, then the CAPM would not
be necessary.
Using the CAPM to build a portfolio is supposed to help an investor manage their
risk. If an investor were able to use the CAPM to perfectly optimize a portfolio’s
return relative to risk, it would exist on a curve called the efficient frontier.
Modern portfolio theory (MPT) suggests that starting with the risk-free rate, the
expected return of a portfolio increases as the risk increases. Any portfolio that fits
on the capital market line (CML) is better than any possible portfolio to the right
of that line, but at some point, a theoretical portfolio can be constructed on the
CML with the best return for the amount of risk being taken.
The CML and the efficient frontier may be difficult to define, but they illustrate an
important concept for investors: There is a tradeoff between increased return and
increased risk. Because it isn’t possible to perfectly build a portfolio that fits on
the CML, it is more common for investors to take on too much risk as they seek
additional return.
Considering the critiques of the CAPM and the assumptions behind its use in
portfolio construction, it might be difficult to see how it could be useful. However,
using the CAPM as a tool to evaluate the reasonableness of future expectations or
to conduct comparisons can still have some value.
Imagine an advisor who has proposed adding a stock to a portfolio with a $100
share price. The advisor uses the CAPM to justify the price with a discount rate of
13%. The advisor’s investment manager can take this information and compare it
with the company’s past performance and its peers to see if a 13% return is a
reasonable expectation. Assume in this example that the peer group’s performance
over the last few years was a little better than 10% while this stock had
consistently underperformed, with 9% returns. The investment manager shouldn’t
take the advisor’s recommendation without some justification for the increased
expected return.
An investor also can use the concepts from the CAPM and the efficient frontier to
evaluate their portfolio or individual stock performance vs. the rest of the market.
For example, assume that an investor’s portfolio has returned 10% per year for the
last three years with a standard deviation of returns (risk) of 10%. However, the
market averages have returned 10% for the last three years with a risk of 8%.
The investor could use this observation to reevaluate how their portfolio is
constructed and which holdings may not be on the SML. This could explain why
the investor’s portfolio is to the right of the CML. If the holdings that are either
dragging on returns or have increased the portfolio’s risk disproportionately can
be identified, then the investor can make changes to improve returns. Not
surprisingly, the CAPM contributed to the rise in the use of indexing, or
assembling a portfolio of shares to mimic a particular market or asset class,
by risk-averse investors. This is largely due to the CAPM message that it is only
possible to earn higher returns than those of the market as a whole by taking on
higher risk (beta).
R. 3 What is sensitivity analysis/How is sensitivity analysis
conducted? Discuss with examples.
Sensitivity analysis is a financial model that determines how target variables are
affected based on changes in other variables known as input variables. It is a way
to predict the outcome of a decision given a certain range of variables. By creating
a given set of variables, an analyst can determine how changes in one variable
affect the outcome.1
Both the target and input—or independent and dependent—variables are fully
analyzed when sensitivity analysis is conducted. The person doing the analysis
looks at how the variables move as well as how the target is affected by the input
variable.
Sensitivity analysis can be used to help make predictions about the share prices
of public companies. Some of the variables that affect stock prices include
company earnings, the number of shares outstanding, the debt-to-equity
ratios (D/E), and the number of competitors in the industry. The analysis can be
refined about future stock prices by making different assumptions or adding
different variables. This model can also be used to determine the effect that
changes in interest rates have on bond prices. In this case, the interest rates are the
independent variable, while bond prices are the dependent variable.
Sensitivity analysis allows for forecasting using historical, true data. By studying
all the variables and the possible outcomes, important decisions can be made
about businesses, the economy, and making investments.
Financial models that incorporate sensitivity analysis can provide management a
range of feedback that is useful in many different scenarios. The breadth of the
usefulness of sensitivity analysis includes but is not limited to:
Understanding influencing factors. This includes what and how different
external factors interact with a specific project or undertaking. This allows
management to better understand what input variables may impact
output variables.
Reducing uncertainty. Complex sensitivity analysis models educate users
on different elements impacting a project; this in turn informs members on
the project what to be alert for or what to plan in advance for.
Debt financing occurs when a firm raises money for working capital or capital
expenditures by selling debt instruments to individuals and/or institutional
investors. In return for lending the money, the individuals or institutions
become creditors and receive a promise that the principal and interest on the
debt will be repaid. The other way to raise capital in debt markets is to issue
shares of stock in a public offering; this is called equity financing.
Debt financing occurs when a firm sells fixed income products, such as
bonds, bills, or notes.
Unlike equity financing where the lenders receive stock, debt financing
must be paid back.
When a company needs money, there are three ways to obtain financing: sell
equity, take on debt, or use some hybrid of the two. Equity represents an
ownership stake in the company. It gives the shareholder a claim on future
earnings, but it does not need to be paid back. If the company goes bankrupt,
equity holders are the last in line to receive money.
A company can choose debt financing, which entails selling fixed
income products, such as bonds, bills, or notes, to investors to obtain the capital
needed to grow and expand its operations. When a company issues a bond, the
investors that purchase the bond are lenders who are either retail or institutional
investors that provide the company with debt financing. The amount of the
investment loan—also known as the principal—must be paid back at some agreed
date in the future. If the company goes bankrupt, lenders have a higher claim on
any liquidated assets than shareholders.
Cost of Debt
A firm's capital structure is made up of equity and debt. The cost of equity is the
dividend payments to shareholders, and the cost of debt is the interest payment to
bondholders. When a company issues debt, not only does it promise to repay the
principal amount, it also promises to compensate its bondholders by making
interest payments, known as coupon payments, to them annually. The interest rate
paid on these debt instruments represents the cost of borrowing to the issuer.
The sum of the cost of equity financing and debt financing is a company's cost of
capital. The cost of capital represents the minimum return that a company must
earn on its capital to satisfy its shareholders, creditors, and other providers of
capital. A company's investment decisions relating to new projects and operations
should always generate returns greater than the cost of capital. If a company's
returns on its capital expenditures are below its cost of capital, the firm is not
generating positive earnings for its investors. In this case, the company may need
to re-evaluate and re-balance its capital structure.
The formula for the cost of debt financing is:
KD = Interest Expense x (1 - Tax Rate)
where KD = cost of debt
Since the interest on the debt is tax-deductible in most cases, the interest expense
is calculated on an after-tax basis to make it more comparable to the cost of equity
as earnings on stocks are taxed.
Measuring Debt Financing
One metric used to measure and compare how much of a company's capital is
being financed with debt financing is the debt-to-equity ratio (D/E). For example,
if total debt is $2 billion, and total stockholders' equity is $10 billion, the D/E ratio
is $2 billion / $10 billion = 1/5, or 20%. This means for every $1 of debt
financing, there is $5 of equity. In general, a low D/E ratio is preferable to a high
one, although certain industries have a higher tolerance for debt than others. Both
debt and equity can be found on the balance sheet statement.
Some investors in debt are only interested in principal protection, while others
want a return in the form of interest. The rate of interest is determined by market
rates and the creditworthiness of the borrower. Higher rates of interest imply a
greater chance of default and, therefore, carry a higher level of risk. Higher
interest rates help to compensate the borrower for the increased risk. In addition to
paying interest, debt financing often requires the borrower to adhere to certain
rules regarding financial performance. These rules are referred to as covenants.
Debt financing can be difficult to obtain. However, for many companies, it
provides funding at lower rates than equity financing, particularly in periods of
historically low-interest rates. Another advantage to debt financing is that the
interest on the debt is tax-deductible. Still, adding too much debt can increase the
cost of capital, which reduces the present value of the company.
The main difference between debt and equity financing is that equity financing
provides extra working capital with no repayment obligation. Debt financing must
be repaid, but the company does not have to give up a portion of ownership in
order to receive funds.
Most companies use a combination of debt and equity financing. Companies
choose debt or equity financing, or both, depending on which type of funding is
most easily accessible, the state of their cash flow, and the importance of
maintaining ownership control. The D/E ratio shows how much financing is
obtained through debt vs. equity. Creditors tend to look favorably on a relatively
low D/E ratio, which benefits the company if it needs to access additional debt
financing in the future.