Unit-2 (SCM)
Unit-2 (SCM)
Unit-2 (SCM)
The network includes the activities, people, technology, information and resources, while the
functional teams involved in the company’s network includes sales, sourcing, procurement,
production, logistics and customer service.
Supply chain management is the coordination, management and strategy that drives the flow of
data, information, resources and materials to deliver the best product and service to all
stakeholders in the process of converting raw goods to a salable product and delivering it to the
ultimate customer.
When the activities of a company’s supply chain are brought together into a single vision, supply
chain management drives a competitive advantage by executing faster, reducing friction through
all internal and external points, thus bringing more transparency throughout the process to
deliver a product or service that is beyond expectations of the end customer.
Objectives and Functions of Supply Chain Management
The higher the SCM profitability, the higher is the success for supply chain. The Supply chain
profitability is the difference between the amount paid by the customer to purchase a product and
the cost incurred by an organization to produce and supply the product to the customer.
Customer is the only source of revenue. Therefore there should be appropriate management of
the flow of information, product or funds. It is a key to the success of supply chain.
SCM aims to reduce the time required for ordering and fulfilling the same.
Delivery optimization
The SCM aims to meet the demands of the customer for guaranteed delivery of high quality and
low cost with less lead time.
Demand fulfilment
Managing the demand and supply is a key yet challenging task for a company or management
personnel. Its objective is to fulfil customer demand through efficient resources.
Flexibility
SCM aims for flexibility. A Well managed supply chain provides flexible planning and better
control mechanism.
Better Distribution
SCM aims to ensure improved distribution. It can maximize the distribution side efficiency.
Marketer or distributor can achieve optimized level distribution by using all resources that are
available properly.
Cost Reduction
It’s another objective of SCM to reduce the system wide cost of a company to meet service level
requirement.
There are several other sub-objectives that can be derived from these long term objectives.
You all would know that SCM is an integral part of business and it’s essential to company’s
success and customer satisfaction. In this segment we shall look at the importance or the
significance of SCM.
Customers expect the right product to be delivered and they expect it to be available at the right
location. They expect right delivery time and also right after sale support. Customers expect
products to be serviced quickly. Therefore considering all of this, the significance of SCM is
critically high.
Retailers depend on supply chains to deliver expensive products in order to avoid holding costly
inventories in stores any longer than it’s required. Manufacturers rely on supply chain to deliver
reliably deliver materials to avoid material shortages.
Momentum
SCM streamlines everything, from product flow to any unexpected natural disasters. With
effective SCM, organizations can diagnose any sort of problem easily.
SCM is the necessity of foundation for all societies. Effective supply chain meets the
requirements of producers and consumers. It takes an integrated approach towards management.
The first function of SCM is purchasing. During manufacturing process, raw materials are
needed. It is essential that these materials are procured and delivered on time. Then only the
production can begin. In order to make this happen, coordination with suppliers and delivery
companies is needed to avoid delays.
Operations
Forecasting and demand planning is needed before materials are procured as the demand market
shall dictate how many units are to be produced and how much material is needed for
production. This function in SCM is vital as organizations accurately forecast demand to avoid
having too little or too much inventory that would lead to revenue losses. Therefore, forecasting
and demand planning should be tied in with inventory management, production and shipping.
Logistics
Logistics is a part of SCM that co-ordinates all planning aspects, purchasing, production, and
transportation aspects to ensure that products reach the end consumer without hindrances. It is
essential to have co-ordination with multiple departments so that products are quickly shipped to
customers.
Resource Management
Resource management[1] ensures that right resources are allocated to the right activities and that
too in an optimized way. It ensures that optimized production schedule is created to maximize
operations efficiency.
Information workflow
Sharing information and distribution is that what keeps all other functions of supply chain
management on track. If this information workflow and communication is poor, it can hurt the
entire chain.
Future of Supply Chain Management
Technology development goes hand in hand in the future of SCM. Whether its allowing supply
chain teams to add or improve their current processes, newly created technologies have become
essential as we move forward. At least for the foreseeable future, there is a need for supply chain
teams to have hands on approach to various processes.
Therefore it’s vital that supply chain teams understand the importance of incorporating
technology and not being intimidated by it.
On a broader level, supply chain management consists of these four major functions and key
element components, such as:
Integration
This forms the crux of the supply chain and is meant to coordinate communications to produce
effective and timely results. It can include innovation of new software or advanced technological
processes to improve communications.
Operations
This involves management of day to day operations in the eCommerce business. For example, it
may deal with keeping an eye on the inventory or coming up with marketing approaches.
Purchasing
This deals with the purchasing decisions and management, such as purchasing raw materials,
source materials and so on.
Distribution
This deals with the management of logistics across wholesalers, retailers, and customers. This
may mean keeping an eye on the shipment, and other details.
In addition to these, there are also some subsidiary functions that an effective supply chain
management process fulfills, such as:
Seamless Communication
All the aspects of a supply chain must be connected with a strong communication network. A
transparent communication will help each section progress and a constant flow of data will help
in simplifying operations.
There must be proper synchronization between every operation to ensure the smooth functioning
of the entire supply chain. This can be attained by applying automation systems ad decreasing
the load of manual tasks.
Shipping and transportation must be imbibed with a strong network of pin codes so that the
entire supply chain is sorted and its role is defined. You can make use of transportation systems
or shipping solutions.
In supply chain management, forecasting is the act of predicting demand, supply, and pricing
within an industry. Forecasting involves investigating the competition, collecting supplier data,
and analyzing past patterns in order to predict the future of an industry. Forecasting is an
important skill for a supply chain manager to have, and it encompasses multiple skills that one
should acquire as they grow in their career.
1. Planning Processes
The scheduling and planning process is vastly improved through forecasting. Paying attention to
the past and present demand for products allows a supply chain to stay on top of the game.
2. Seasonal Variations in Demand
Among the many reasons that forecasting is needed in supply chain management is being able to
predict and plan for seasonal variations in demand. In a similar vein, planning for promotional
activity and product launches are just as important and benefit greatly from demand forecasting.
With data to back up predictions, there is less guesswork to fret over.
4. Customer Satisfaction
Understanding customer needs is essential in product-focused industries. Being able to predict
customer demand will result in fulfilling orders with short lead times on time. This will also have
the effect of increasing trust between customer and supplier.
8. Improve Pricing
Price forecasting puts the power back into the hands of a company. The impact price changes
have on a particular area of a supply chain can be predicted and handled accordingly.
Get Certified in Houston
Now that you have an answer to the question “Why is forecasting important in supply chain
management?”, your next step to understanding supply chain management is to seek
certification. With several certification options to choose from, the path to a fulfilling career in a
growing industry is well within reach at APICS. Learn more about your options here.
Demand Forecasting defined as the process by which the historical sales data are used to
develop an estimate of the expected forecast of customer demand. Demand Forecasting provides
an estimate of the of goods and services that customers will purchase in the foreseeable future.
Supply chain forecasting and weather forecasts have more than one thing in common.
The process of making predictions based on past and present information, they both use hard
data, and, at times, intuition, to varying degrees of accuracy. And in both cases, something that
didn’t appear on the radar can leave you feeling caught-out and unprepared—whether that’s
without an umbrella, or without the inventory needed to fill an order.
Understanding how to properly forecast your supply chain needs is critical to ensuring your
ecommerce store’s success. Getting it right can lead to better supplier relationships, increased
customer satisfaction, and more capital to grow and scale your business.
We spoke with supply chain management, fulfillment, and shipping experts to find out how
supply chain forecasting can make or break your store’s next quarter—and the best methods for
doing it.
Pros: Easy
Cons: Doesn't allow for seasonality or trends
Best for: Low-volume items
One of the simplest methods for forecasting, this method examines data points by creating an
average series of subsets from complete data.
As it’s based on historical averages, moving average forecasting doesn’t take into account that
recent data may be a better indicator of the future and should be given more weight. It also
doesn’t allow for seasonality or trends. As a result, this method is best for inventory control for
low-volume items.
Exponential smoothing
Picking up where average forecasting leaves off, this method takes into account historical data,
but gives more weight to recent observations. It’s similar to adaptive forecasting, which takes
into account seasonality.
Pros: Very accurate
Cons: Costly; time-consuming
Best for: Timeframes of <18 months
One method that fits within the ARIMA category is Box-Jenkins. Costly and time-consuming,
this time series forecasting method is also one of the most accurate, although it’s best suited for
forecasting within timeframes of 18 months or less.
A relatively new method that’s specifically designed for seasonality, MAPA smooths out trends
to help prevent over or under-estimating demand. Although not nearly as popular as Holt or
Holt-Winters, research has shown it performs better.
Qualitative supply chain forecasting methods
In the case of new product or business launches when data is nonexistent or hard to come by, it
can be difficult to make supply chain forecasts. There’s also the case of historical data becoming
irrelevant or less accurate, such as when a global pandemic has skewed historical data. That’s
where qualitative forecasting comes in.
Methods include:
1. Historical analogies
2. Sales force composition
3. Market research
4. The Delphi method
Historical analogies
Historical analogy forecasting predicts future sales by assuming a new product will have a sales
history parallel to a present product (either one sold by you, or a product sold by a similar
competitor). A comparative analysis, it has poor accuracy in the short-term, although may be
more accurate in the medium and long-term.
Sometimes called “collective opinion,” this method relies on the personal insights and opinions
of experienced managers and staff, gathered as a team exercise. According to Harvard Business
Review, panels of this nature typically have a poor to fair accuracy.
Planning Demand and Supply in a Supply Chain
Characteristics of forecasts
Forecasts are always wrong. Should include expected value and measure of error. Long-term
forecasts are less accurate than short-term forecasts. Too long term forecasts are useless:
Forecast horizon Aggregate forecasts are more accurate than disaggregate forecasts
Several ways to aggregate – Products into product groups – Demand by location – Demand by
time period
Forecasting Methods
Qualitative – Expert opinion – E.g. Why do you listen to Wall Street stock analysts?
Time Series – Static – Adaptive Causal Forecast Simulation for planning purposes
Inventory is the goods or materials a business intends to sell to customers for profit. Inventory
management, a critical element of the supply chain, is the tracking of inventory from
manufacturers to warehouses and from these facilities to a point of sale. The goal of inventory
management is to have the right products in the right place at the right time. This requires
inventory visibility — knowing when to order, how much to order and where to store stock. The
basic steps of inventory management include:
1. Purchasing inventory: Ready-to-sell goods are purchased and delivered to the warehouse
or directly to the point of sale.
2. Storing inventory: Inventory is stored until needed. Goods or materials are transferred
across your fulfillment network until ready for shipment.
3. Profiting from inventory: The amount of product for sale is controlled. Finished goods
are pulled to fulfill orders. Products are shipped to customers.
What are the types of inventory management?
Inventory tracking
Know exactly where inventory is across the supply chain.
Order management
Customize pricing, send quotes, track orders and manage returns.
Transfer management
Move product to where it's most valuable.
Reporting and analytics
Evaluate patterns in processes to forecast future demand and sales.
Purchasing
Create and manage purchase orders.
Shipping capabilities
Automate shipping to reduce errors such as late deliveries or delivering incorrect packages.
Inventory management starts long before products reach the warehouse. Let’s explore the facets
of sound inventory management for companies that hire the right talent with a well-rounded
education in supply chain management.
An optimized inventory management system needs supply chain visibility from raw
materials to sales data. It demands agile supply chain planning that can quickly respond
to changes in customer demand or disruption in your global logistics operations. As a
supply chain manager, you will be responsible for calculating and recalculating optimal
inventory levels to meet customer demand. Inventory management’s fluid nature is one
of the things that makes supply chain management such an exciting career.
Transportation management. Inventory management and managing transportations are
inextricably linked. The transportation segment of your supply chain primarily from the
factory to the fulfillment warehouse or distribution center. Proactive and aggressive
transportation management is vital to just-in-time supply chain management because a
delay in transport can throw a tightly structured global supply chain into disarray. As a
supply chain manager, part of your job is to maintain visibility into your logistics
operations, create repeatable transportation systems, and stay ready to pivot swiftly to
preserve your inventory flow.
Warehouse management. Warehouse management includes storage, distribution, and
fulfillment. Determining the best warehouse locations to meet customer demand for fast
delivery and ensuring that fulfillment operations run smoothly are essential to customer
satisfaction. Responsible warehouse management facilitates inventory visibility and
prevents loss due to damage or theft. It’s critical to include your warehousing operations
in your supply chain visibility, rather than trusting that transportations professionals can
provide the level of fulfillment services your organization needs without proper
oversight.
ABC analysis focuses supply chain management on the products where inventory visibility is
most crucial. This inventory management practice optimizes inventory and time management.
Demand forecasting. Demand forecasting is essential to inventory management. Demand
forecasts form the basis of supply chain planning for the next quarter or the following year.
There are two basic types of demand forecasts.
1. Passive demand forecasting bases predictions on data about past sales. Passive demand
forecasting can work well for mature companies with comprehensive sales data and
stable market share.
2. Active demand forecasting incorporates growth projections and external market forces to
project customer demand. Active forecasting methods work well for startups, growing
companies, or industries where demand fluctuates based on external factors.
Supply chain management professionals and academics have developed a range of methods for
creating demand forecasts, including:
Market research, which bases forecasts on trends that help illustrate how to expand
market share
Salesforce composite, which relies on the sales team’s market knowledge
The Delphi method, which creates a forecast based on the consensus of a group of experts
Reorder quantity. Reorder quantity is the inventory level at which you need to order mo
1. Supply disruptions
The pandemic has shown us how global supply chains can bend or break down, especially if they
aren’t built for resilience. Previously, businesses prioritized efficiency and cost savings over
resilience. In the aftermath of the pandemic, businesses are focusing on mitigating the risks from
supply disruption by switching to near-shore or local suppliers, establishing supply chain risk
management teams and procedures, and adopting technology to streamline supply chain
processes and improve transparency.
One of the major challenges during the pandemic has been dealing with uncertainty in terms of
demand, market trends, and consumer behavior. Such volatility and uncertainty led to several
instances of excess stock when demand fell or a lack of goods when the demand for certain
goods shot up substantially.
Dealing with such uncertainties requires the ability to gather latest data on market and buyer
trends and forecasting demand using advanced analytics to adjust production rates accordingly.
Three key reasons why businesses are unable to gain end-to-end visibility of their supply chains
are the use of siloed systems, historical data, and inefficient inventory and warehouse
management practices, especially those relying on manual efforts or legacy systems.
Without the ability to visualize the complete picture, it’s impossible to answer critical inventory
management questions such as the number of orders getting processed, the number of purchase
orders are on their way, or the amount of safety stock is required to keep up with demand.
4. Loss of inventory
Now let’s look at how technology powered by AI can help resolve these inventory management
challenges.
Inventory Model & Types
Inventory also referred as stocks are basically the goods and raw materials that any business
Inventory Model
Inventory model is a mathematical model that helps business in determining the optimum level
of inventories that should be maintained in a production process, managing frequency of
ordering, deciding on quantity of goods or raw materials to be stored, tracking flow of supply of
raw materials and goods to provide uninterrupted service to customers without any delay in
delivery.
There are two types of Inventory model widely used in business.
Fixed Reorder Quantity System is an Inventory Model, where an alarm is raised immediately
when the inventory level drops below a fixed quantity and new orders are raised to replenish the
inventory to an optimum level based on the demand. The point at which the inventory is ordered
for replenishment is termed as Reorder Point. The inventory quantity at Reorder Point is termed
as Reorder Level and the quantity of new inventory ordered is referred as Order Quantity.
Average Demand (DAv): It is the average number of order requests made per day.
Average Lead Time (TL): The time required to manufacture goods or product.
Average Lead Time Demand (DL): Average number of orders requested during the Lead Time
Average Lead Time Demand (DL) = Average Demand (DAv) X Average Lead Time (TL)
Safety Stock (S): It is the extra stock that is always maintained to mitigate any future risks
arising due to stock-outs because of shortfall of raw materials or supply, breakdown in machine
or plant, accidents, natural calamity or disaster, labour strike or any other crisis that may the stall
the production process.
The quantity of safety stock is often derived by analysing historical data and is set to an
optimized level by evaluating carefully the current cost of inventory and losses that may be
incurred due to future risk.
Reorder Level (RL): Reorder level is the inventory level, at which an alarm is triggered
immediately to replenish that particular inventory stock. Reorder level is defined, keeping into
consideration the Safety Stock to avoid any stock-out and Average Lead Time
Demand because even after raising the alarm, it would take one complete process cycle (Lead
Time) till the new inventories arrive to replenish the existing inventory.
Reorder Level (RL) = Safety Stock (S) + Average Lead Time Demand (DL)
Order Quantity (O): Order quantity is the Demand (Order requests) that needs to be delivered
to the customer.
Minimum Level: At least Safety Stock has to be always maintained to avoid any future stock-
Maximum Level: The maximum level that can be kept in stock is safety stock and the demand
Example: The order quantity of an Item is 600 Units. The safety Stock is 200 Units. The
Average Lead Time is 5 Days and average consumption per days is 40 units.
Average Lead Time Demand (DL) = Demand (DAv) X Lead Time (TL) = 200 Units
Reorder Level (RL) = Safety Stock (S) + Average Lead Time Demand (DL) = 400 Units
Maximum Level (LMax) = Safety Stock (S) + Order Quantity (O) = 800 Units
raised after every fixed period of time and orders are raised to replenish the inventory to an
optimum level based on the demand. In this case replenishment of inventory is a continuous
Regular Intervals (R): Regular Interval is the fixed time interval at the end of which the
inventories would be reviewed and orders would be raised to replenish the inventory
Inventory on Hand (It): Inventory on hand is the Inventory level measured at any given point
of time.
Maximum Level (M): It is the maximum level of inventory allowed as per the production
Order Quantity: In this system, inventory is reviewed at regular intervals (R), inventory on
hand (It) is noted at the time of review and order quantity is placed for a quantity of (M) – (It).
inventory is 800 Units. The inventory reviewed on Day-5, Day-10, Day -15 and Day -20 were
387 Units, 201 Units, 498 Units and 127 Units respectively.
Inventory on Hand: I5 = 387 Units, I10 = 201 Units, I15 = 498 Units and I20 = 127 Units