GEO 347G/387G Climate System Modeling
Class Time: MWF 10-11am JGB 3.216B
The objectives of this course are to:
Understand the physical description of the climate system Understand the basic equations used to model the climate system Understand the methods for solving these equations Understand the differences between General Circulation Models (GCMs) and Regional Climate models
This course is meant to be a hands-on
Over the semester you will be instructed on how to operate a regional climate model on the TACC supercomputer facility. This includes:
- compiling the WRF code - designing experiments to address scientific research - data manipulation and analysis to support the model results
Specifically you will be involved in research-level model applications working individually or in small groups to design and conduct modeling projects that will involve the WRF regional climate model.
Background experience
Basic knowledge of Unix/Linux commands and familiarity working on this computing platform How to use an editor on the UNIX platform (e.g., vi editor) Programming experience: specifically Fortran Some understanding of atmospheric circulation/fluid dynamics/atmospheric processes
Grading for the Course
Final Written Research Project 50% Oral Presentation of Research Project 50%
Syllabus
I. Introduction II. Physical Description of the climate system a. atmosphere b. oceans c. land surface d. cryosphere/ice III. Modeling the climate system a. Fundamental equations b. vertical coordinate systems c. radiation and cloud processes d. surface processes IV. Basic Methods for solving model equations a. Finite differencing b. spectral method
Syllabus
V. Weather Research and Forecasting Model (WRF)
a. Introduction b. ARW Solver c. WRF Model Physics d. WRF Software e. Getting started with the TACC Ranger - unix/linux commands - vi editor f. WRF Preprocessing System (WPS) g. WRF ARW Initialization - Basics - How to set up and run h. ARW namelist.input i. Post-processing and graphical tools (GrADS)
Syllabus (cont.)
During the last week of classes you will present to the rest of the class your preliminary results. The final written reports for everyone will also be due at the end of the semester.
Text:
An Introduction to Three-Dimensional Climate Modeling by Warren M. Washington and Claire L. Parkinson. Skamarock, W. C., J. B. Klemp, J. Dudhia, D. O. Gill, D. M. Barker, W. Wang, and J. G. Powers, A description of the Advanced Research WRF Version 2. NCAR/TN-468+STR, June 2008. Available on-line at: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/arw_v3.pdf WRF (ARW) Version 3 Modeling System User's Guide produced by Mesoscale & Microscale Meteorology Division, NCAR, July 2006. Available on-line at: http://www.mmm.ucar.edu/wrf/users/docs/user_guide/ARWUsers Guide.pdf
Other References:
Fundamentals of Atmospheric Modeling by Mark Z. Jacobson
Instructor: Dr. Ned Vizy Office: 5.220G E-mail: ned@jsg.utexas.edu Phone: 512-585-1937 Office Hours: By appointment
Finally, Id really like to have your interaction and feedback during the course. There is so much to cover and not enough time. This will help improve the quality of the course not only for this semester, but for future.
Computer Support:
David Spindler e-mail: spindler@jsg.utexas.edu
My Research/Interests
Climate variability/climate change -paleoclimate -Present day -Future climate change
What does the proxy data suggest the LGM moisture signal was like?
Moisture Signal Proxy Site Type
See Vizy and Cook (2005) for more comprehensive details
60-km Domain and Topography (m)
Regional Climate Model
60-km Resolution Domain 382 day integrations (17 day spin-up) Initial and lateral boundary conditions interpolated from present day NCAR/NCEP reanalysis climatological data
Differences between Present Day and LGM Simulations
Eccentricity Obliquity Long. Of Perihelion CO2 Concentration Landuse Categories SSTs Present Day (PD) 0.016724 23.5 282.45 330 ppmv USGS PD PD Shea et al. (1992) Present Day NCEP LGM 0.018994 22.949 294.425 200 ppmv USGS PD LGM Paul and Schfer-Neth (2003) Present Day NCEP
Lateral Boundary Conditions
Annual Rainfall
Present Day Rainfall (mm/day) LGM Present Day Difference (mm/day)
Area Averaged Monthly Rainfall Rates (mm/day)
Andes Region Averaging Regions
Amazon Region Present Day LGM
Future Climate Application
Present Day: 1981-2000 mean Lateral boundary conditions for wind, temperature, and specific humidity from the NCEP/NCAR reanalysis (~observations) and sea Surface temperature observations; present day CO2 concentrations Climate mode simulation: All of these boundary conditions are the 1981-2000 average Future: 2081-2100 mean under the IPCC's A2 Emissions Scenario Boundary conditions from an ocean/atmosphere global model from the Canadian Climate Center, a contribution to the IPCC AR4, applied as anomalies to the present day boundary conditions
CO2 at 757 ppmv
Potential Vegetation Model Tests for Mean Temperature of the coldest month Dryness Growing degree days Seasonality
Oyama and Nobre 2004
Asynchronous coupling
Why use the PVM with the RCM?
Include the role of vegetation changes on climate Climate model validation Translate climate anomaly/change into vegetation perturbations (1) To answer the question So What? for future climate applications (2) To interface with geological proxy data for past climate applications
Coupled Model Validation: Representation of Todays Vegetation
USGS (observed) Present Day Vegetation
Modeled Present Day Vegetation
rainforest cropland grassland savanna caatinga (mixed shrubland, grassland)
By comparison, if the present day climate of a GCM integration is used to drive the PVM .
In the simulation for 2081-2100, there is a 69% reduction in the rainforest extent.
1981 - 2000 Venezuela Columbia Ecuador Brazil Peru Bolivia Chile Paraguay 2081 - 2100
Blue shading: Regions in which rainforest cannot be maintained due to
1981-2000 simulation 2081-2100 simulation
Insufficient annual rainfall
Dry season too long
Influence of the South American Plume
Climatological SSTs Climatological SSTs
No Plume SSTs
Plume SSTs
August storm tracks for an ensemble of simulations where Amazon/Orinoco plume SSTAs are removed and included
Results
1. Increase in the number of storms - 14 in No Plume - 21 in Plume 2. Westward shift in the storm track closer to the US coastline 3. Storms tend to be shorter lived (by 4 days) in the Plume case
