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Fibonacci Trading

phương pháp giao dịch fibonacci

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Hà Ngọc Tiến
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1K views163 pages

Fibonacci Trading

phương pháp giao dịch fibonacci

Uploaded by

Hà Ngọc Tiến
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
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"“Downd mién phi tai Thu vién tai chinh T.me/Kienthuctaichinh " Cé ca clip séch néi TU SACH Carolyn Boroden ATR TRADING Sach ban chay nhét nuée My vé PTKT (TA) trong Chung Khodn Ce en eee eran oe FIBONACCI TRADING FIBONACCI TRADING Copyright @ 2019 by MCGRAW-HILL EDUCATION. “This ection published by arrangement with MeGraw-Hill Education (Singapore) Pte Lid, No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted, including withou imation photocopying, cording, taping, or any databese, information or retrieve «sytem, without the prior written permission of the publisher. lirights reserved. ‘he phém: FIBONACCI TRADING ‘ée git: Carolyn Boroden. ud ban va phét hanh gn bn ting Viet tréntodn thé gid theo hop déng chuyén giao ban quyén aids MeSran-Hill Education (Singapore) Pte Ltd v8 CONG TY TAHHHAPPY ve ‘in quyén ting Vigt @Happy Live 2019 Moi sy sao chéptrich dn ph 6 su na bing vin uén cts chi sha ‘Carolyn Boroden Thai Pham - Lai Qué Viet FIBONACC TRADING Sch ban chy nha nude My v8 PIKT (TA rong Ching Kos, ‘Ch hic lr cl thé vt gan vs gi rang gi dich CCUON SACH NAY DANH RIENG CHO NGUGI LINH CUA TOL LTCSTEVEN M, KING, NGUOIBA BUGC BIEU DONG TS: [AFGHANISTAN TRONG KHITOIVIET CUON SACH NAY, | THAT MAY MAN, BAY GI6 ANH AY BA VENHA AN TOAN VA BA NGHI HUU TU QUAN 801 HOA KY! Quem Haine SE MUC LUC LOITUA 6 LOINOI DAU 8 LOI GION THIEU 12 RCHUONG GiEReSeeeeeeeeeeeeeee cee 18 Day 6 Fibonacci va Til@ vang CHONG 02 Z peg ‘Ap dng 1 Fibonacci len tc gi cba thi trabng CHUONG 03 25 (Céc mic gid Fibonacci H6i quy CHUONG 04 45, (Cac mie gid Fibonacci Mé rong CHUONG 05 63 CCéc mic gid muc tiéu hodc mic gid dy phong Fibonacci CHUONG 06 iat 81 (Cée thiét lap cum gid Fibonacci: Thit ap glao dich 1 HUONG 07. 119 ‘Can xiing - Cong cy manh mé: Thidt lap giao dich 2 CHUONG 08 147 ‘Thidt lap m6 hinh Hai Buse: Thiét ip giao dich3 HUONG 09 : 169 lia chon dao d6ng dé phan tich CHUONG 10 477 ‘Ap dung tié Fibonacci lén trye tho’ glan eta thi trrbng, CHUONG 11 oo 195 ‘Céc cum thoi gian Fibonacci CHUONG 12 215 ‘Si dung B40 e4o de phéng thoi gian CHUONG 13 234 Hop lu cla thdi gian va gid CHUONG 14 (Cae diém kich hoat va chi bao CHUONG 15 —_271 ‘Thiét lap giao dich ly wong CHUONG 16 at 295 ‘Tirphan tich dén dim mé vi thé giao dich - dit tt cd fal voi nhaw CHUONG 17 313 anh bai xée sudt voi mot k€ hoach giao dich ONACE! TRADING LOI TUA Ban than méa, trong lich sti chinh aang trim nam nay, thi trvdng cng kon da va dang a. mde trong nbng Ken lu tu hp din ben canh auting dy dude tao ra vo ngay 20/12/2006 va sau dé xc dinh ‘duge mae gié Fibonacci du phong ti dinh mél duge tao ra v8o. gay 11/01/2007 dé co duvic me gis du phéng 1.00 ti dinh ‘m6 ngay 11/01/2007 cho thaly chang ta c6 thé cb mae WB tra tai Khu we gi 1.1644, Bay thye t€ duce tgo ra 6 mde 1.1646, chi léch mot vai pip so voi dy dosn. Ngay sav day nay 1A mot dda ting gid tuyet dep dén 1.1851, 66 Ia mot dotting gis 205 pip tu day ngay 16/01/2007, Las rang dotting gi nay di md rng len t6i 1.272 va sau do dita la. Pip ~ Percentage in Point: Trong tai chinh, cu thé & trén thi trudng -ngoal ho tle phn tram theo dim hoa diém lal suat fa mot don v i NOI doai cda mot cap tent. thay 46i gun: Wiki 7 HOONACCT TRADING. H 2 = i i i : | i 76 Hinh 52 “Tig theo, hay cha ¥ nhin vao c6 phi JC Penney tea bieu <6 hang ngay (Hinh 5-12) Tai dy, ching ta 3 do pham vi dao ‘dong ti dinh ngay 13/11/2006 xu6ing day ngdy 01/12/2006 (dim A va B) va xae dinh cc mic gid Fibonacci dy phéong inh ngay 15/12/2006 (dim C) 48 c6 th tim ra cic mae WS tp tiém nang. Trong tridng hop nay, mae gia Fibonacci dy phong 1.00 cia ving, dao eng trude dé chin 1a dy diac tao ra tu Li gi tang lai 11.95. (Mie gia Fibonacci du phong 1.618 ‘rong trutng hap nay khong duoc kigen inh. “Tren biu dé ching Khosin hang ngay tip theo cla YHOO, 6 thé hoi kno mot chit trong vige nhin ra mét dao dong © rang dé xac dinh cic mc gi dy phong (xem Hinh 5-13). Bay tai dim C khong dite xe inh +6 rang nhut mot s6 vf du khée pia trutic ma ban da thy cho din bay gi. Kc dinh ce mde 48 Fibonacc! ten bigu d6 di khi mot mon nghe thuat hon ‘met mn khoa hoc. 58 c6 lie ban chi c&n sir dung mot s6 kha Hinh sa nim varhode tre gide thong thutng trong kh thue hin phn pha tich ofa minh. Me ds thay a trong vi du ny c@ thé kong rang tién iu dé hang ngay, nhung néa ban da bide 146 nay thanh biéu d8 60 phat, ching & r6 rang hon. Ban luo Ton c6 thé di xuding biéu dé khung tha gian thap hon dé dnh si néu ban dang tu hai lieu minh nén si dung dinh hay day 1ndo dé dong trong tinh ton cia minh, Ching ta da do lung su dao déng tu day ngay 25/10/2005, {en dinh ngay 01/11/2005 (diém A va 8) va sau dé xc dinh ‘cc me gia dy hong ti dy ngay 03/11/2005 (Aim C) a tim kim cdc mec khang cu tibm nang. Ching ta khong nhin thy bit ky phan cng gid ndo & mde gis Fibonacci dy phéng 1.00 ‘cia ving dao dong tric, mic di vay, ching ta da thy mot co hoi 6 thé giao dich t6t ngay xung quanh mc gis Fibonacci dy pphéng 1.618 ctia ving dao dong truéc 46. ” FHHONACCL TRADING. 7 Hinhsa Hin 5-14 hin ti biéw dB hang ngdy cia cB phi GM, ‘chang ta da do duge 1 dy ngay 08/06/2006 len dinh ngdy '30/06/2006 (dim A va 8) va sau do xée inh cic mie gid ht pphong ti diy ngdy 14/06/2006 (diém C) 48 hm kiém cde mc kinang cu tiém nang, Tren biéu db nay, ching ta da thy mot phan ang gid 10 rang tf mde gia Fibonacci dy phéngt.00 cla sang dao dong tude db. rong ki do, phan Ong ca gia ta rie gid Fibonacci dy phéng 1.618 4 khing thu 4 tin di sin dé xem gis da cham vao mac nay, mot thoi quen tt ban Vn len tue d3¢ cic lenh dking trast (tral stops sit theo dién bin iia thi trang trong bét ky thai gian nao ma ban ti gn 161 mae quyt din ghd quan trong. Cac chién luge st dung lenh dng trust sé duge thio lun & phan sau tong cus sich nay) CHUNG 5: CAC MUC GIA MYC TIEU HOAE GIA BY PHONG FigowAcet Mot vai chuong cui s@ 4 cac vi du ve each ma ban 6 thé xdc ‘inh cd ba tog gi lien quan theo Fibonacci Khe nhau, ching ta s@ st dung chung dé sang tao ra cic thige lap glao dich cia minh, ching bao gdm: muc gia Fibonacci hi quy, mile gid Fibonacci m3, Ong va mule gia Flbonaccl dy phong. Chung tiép theo ching ta sé ‘em xét "higu ung phan cum gla” ho8e *hop lau” cia cae mile eid lien quan theo Fibonacc, hop luu d6 s€ xée dinh ra kidu tht ep slao dich dau tien cia cing ta: mgt cum sé Fibonacci 7 CHUONG 06 CAC THIET LAP CUM GIA FIBONACCI: THIET LAP GIAO DICH 1 ONACEE TRADING. a inh nghta cia ti vé cum gi Ia su trong hop cla it Pete grime nh ‘nhau trong mét pham vi dao dang ting dd chat che. Céc cum gia nay xie dinh ra c&c ving hé tr va khang ov ‘quan trong o6 thé duc coi 18 mat thet lap giao dich. Mat eum i 6 thé dug tao tt ba mic gid Fibonacci hi quy, ba mak gid Fibonacci ma rng, ba mac gis Fibonacci dy phéng hod last kt hop cita bat ky md gid Fibonacci ign quan nao véi nhau. ‘Mat cum gi cing ¢6 thé phat rin v6 sutrang hop cba hon ba mde gid Fibonacci lign quan, 6 ba chi la slong to tid ln thiét 48 dap ng dinh nghoa. Ban 6 thé thay tai nam dn ‘muti mac gié Fibonacci lién quan KEt hop voi nhau trong mét ppham vi twang d6i chat ché. Khi ban thay nhieu mec gi lin ‘quan cha Fibonacci nay ting vio nhau, diéu nay khong hin co nighia la khu vc gié nay c6 nbidu kha nang gi c6 phan dng, inhung n6 s8 cho ban biét rang 6 [8 dt Khu wc gia quyét din rt quan trong. Néu khu ve gia nay gid duoc, ban co thé thay mot dot cli chuyén gi t6t dep bat ai tu mee nay suing mgt t 18 ‘hap hon theo thai gian. Néu cing mat ving gis dé bi vi phar, cing ding c6 ngse nin nu ban bat du thy sv tang te cia su hung manh len khi gid vit qua ving d6. Co nha lac ti thay nhang cum gi Fibonacci lon nay phat trién KhOng qu xa hoat déng cba thi tring hin tai va ching c6 xu hudng oat dong nhus mgt thdi nam cham het sy di chuyén gis | _cHUONG 6: Ae THE LAP CUM GK Heonaccr: THE LAP G0 O1cH XU HUONG Ki 101 thn hanh thiet lap céc cum gl trén thi trvdng, ngay Ki dim m@ vi thé bat du duge xem xét, tdi mud tap trung vo cc cum gis duge tht lap theo cing chiéu voi xu huang, hign tai ca thi tuing trén bidu 86 ma chang toi dang phan Aich. Bay 58 1a cic thit lap 6 khé nang thanh cng cao hon, Binh nghia dan gin v8 mot xu huéng ma ti sit dung Ia mot xt hhudng lién quan dén vie nhin vao cic mé hinh cia gia ten bigu 8, Ching ta nhin thay mot xu hung ting voi md hinh chung la gi c6 cc dinh sau cao hon dinh tude va dy sau cao hon day tru, ching ta nhin thay mgt xu huting gidm véi mo hin chung 1 gia c6 cae day sau thap han dy trac va din sau thap han din true Toi tin vao vigc bai thun theo dong chay hon la ging bat mguae cong, cb rt nihiéu nha giao dich thyc hign céc giao dich nguge chidu. Néu ti nan thy mot md hinh biéu 6 tang. 6 (inh tang cin va day tang din, i 38 thigt lap cc cum Bid cla minh véi cic dim md vi thé thudn theo chiéu mua, pho hap vai xu hung tng hin tai, Nu t6i nn thay mot mo hinh bidu dB gm gia (ay gidm dn va dinh gidm din), t6i sé xem xét cAc cum gid cb diém md vi thé thudn theo chidu bin 8 gidp ti di theo hung cia xu huting gidm. Toi sé tim kiém cc cum gis theo hutng di nghich vi xu hung hia ta khi ti tide ap cc chigin luge kiém soatIgi nun va tim dim thost ra. Vi du na ching 161 dang mua va ching ti thy mot cum Bia thé hign mdc khang cu trong xu hung tang, t6is€ dé nghi cc nha giao dich ea 8 thét chat cée dim dng vathoae choi loi mot phin & ving gid a6. ‘Mat cum gl cho giao dich nguoe chiéu véi xa hung hign tal vn duge coi la mot thi lp giao dich, mac da ban céin ht ¥ rng te giao dich chién théng cha mat rong s6 ca cum gis ry & fa tha hon so vdi cc cym gi cho giao dich thuan theo ‘chidu cia xu hung hign ti. Sit dong thém cic bé loc giao dich tiém nang va céc diém kich hoat giao dich phd hop ki cic es RHONACEH TRADING. thiét lap giao dich nguac >u hung nay hinh thanh sé gidp cai thign xac suit thanh cong cla ban trong truang hap nay. Lage 46 ca xu hung tang/nd hinh chung. cia cic dink tang din va cde diy tang din - tip trung vio vige thet lap cc cum gis theo chia mua xu hwéng ting inh 6-1 fa bigy dé hang ngay tién mat S&R. MO hin chung cia th trvong nay 1a tang gis bat du tu day trong thing 7 nam 2006 len dinh tong thing 2 nm 2007. Didu to mada 1618 day fa m0 hinh chung ela bigu d6 chi yEu thé him mot 1m@ hin lin tue e& ede dinh va day cao hen. Tuy nhien, cb nihang giai doan tn biéu dB nay ma ban nan thy gid thi trvtng o6 day gidm thip ham day trate db, mac da huang di ‘chung, ca thi tring vn 1a hung tang, MOL g6c abn Khe A xem xét vin dé nay la hay akin biéu 66 qua con mt cia md dda tr bén tad. Ban dua bidu 48 cho mot da tr8 bn wi 84 LCHUONG 6: CAC THIET LAP CUM GIA BONACCI: THIET LAP GiAo DICH xem, sau do hoi dia tr eng gia dang di len c20 hon hay xudng thap hon. Oda tr thubg sé loi lai, quan sat, va dua ra cau tr [ai chinh xe bling cach quan sit cd khu ring chi khong pha tung cai cay, lunge 6 cia hung gidm/me hinh chung v8 csc dy tp din vA fe dinh thifp din - tap trung vo vibe thit lip cdc cym gis theo chiu bén | Hinh 6-2 1a biés 48 hing ngay tién mat SAP. Mo inh chung cia thi trvong nay gidm gis bat dau tr dinh trong thang, 5 nam 2001 xubing day trong thang 9 nm 2001. Bidu ti mun 161 @ day 1a md hinh chung cia biéu d& cha yea thé hig cae ‘day va dinh thép han. Tuy nhin, cong e6 nhitng vi tr én bia 148 nay ma ban nhan thay gid da ta0 ra dInh ting cao so véi {inh true do, mac da huting chung ciia thi tung vin 18 x ‘hung gidm. Hay ahd lai ring: nhin vio bigu dé véi tam tr cia sot da tré bn tabi HBONACEH TRADING. 86 QUAN LY VON “Trude ki tb di vo cdc vi dy thye t6 v8 cae tht Tap cur gid, hay xem xétcich ban suy nght vé vige sit dung ching dé kigin ge loi nun td thi tring. DSu tién, hay nn v20 vibe wae dinh Giro cla ban. Khi ban tham gia Vao thi tang bing cich sit dung thit fap cam gi, ei row da due xc din 1 mot va nh di tn ode cdi regi wi da cba ving cum gis. CO mgt vai eich Kc 8 ban cb thé dat enh dang 18 ve iro ham nhiu 50 vei mde x6 da (Cae chin luge bé sung sé duae {ho lun sa Tigp theo, ban nen c6 mot twng chung vé tiém ning Ia hun cia giao dich nay la bao ni, Myc teu giao dich wi {hia cia ti cho bai ky giao dich theo thet lap cum gia nao tuan a mac gié Fibonacci mé rong, 1.272 cla vong dao dong trude 6 di vao thiét Lap cum gla. Moc gid ve teu nay dat dug voi Fe cao theo tha gin, dc big trong moth) tng 6 xu hutng manh, nhung hay nh ng n6 khong phil Ke n20 ‘ing dat duge. Mie tu th hai cia 11 Khi xc dinh t ving dao dong tung von I8 me gi Fibonacci ma Ong 1.618, v8 sau d6 mye tea thirba cia ti 1a 2.618. (C6 mt vai didu ma ti cn chi ra v8 cc mae gl mye teu “Vi md gid myc tieu cho mt chit Ip giao dich khong pha Kc nao cing co thé dat dg, hay dm bio ban c6 ky ning cin I nt. BiBu may cb nha a: hoge ban di chuyn diem dong len dé haa vén hoe di chuyn diém ding len theo gis sau kh gla dich da c6 lak cho ban. Bang cich ny, néu ban khong dat dye gia mvc teu 1.272, ban 58 ty bdo ve minh Khoi bi thus 18. Cng lasing gis mc iu 1.272 thudng bi vk qua. Day La mot ly do gi Ta thst moe phn vi the nga Khi 8 dat myc tieu du tien oda ban. Hod thay vo 46, ban c6 thé st dung mn lenh cing cho vi thé eta ban theo gia thi tng, vigc cn ltl dé thi tg dua an ra nga kh thi trang die bin chim a, thay ban phil 6 ging tinh ton roc ring thi tnutng 88 di due bao xa v8 Iai nui trong glo dich ny cla ban fa bao nhieu ins 6 CAC HET LAP CUM GA HONACCK THIET LAP cio Dc cAc vi by vé CUM GIA Bay gid hay xem xét qua mbt 56 vi dy tht lap cum gid. BE sigp ban d dang di cing ti qua cdc vi du ny, tb 58 tham Kho nghy hodc gia ia cic dinh va dy ue d6 ma toi dang sil yng 6 xc dinh cic moe gis Fibonacci. Trong vid dau tien vé tht lip oym gi, 0 58 hung din ban ting bude met, bit du bing vide xem bigu dB wing va

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