PREFEASIBILITY

STUDIES GUIDELINES
Methodology overview on how to
conduct a prefeasibility assessment of
renewable power generation technologies
PROJ EC TS MAT URES OV ER FOU R PH A S ES ; F RO M I D EA ,
CO NCEPT A ND B U SI NESS D E VELOPMENT TO E XECUTI ON

Idea Concept Business Project

development development development execution

The idea development phase The concept development The business development The project execution phase
consists of brainstorming and phase usually consists of two phase usually consists of two entails construction and
idea generation activities to stages and related studies: stages installation of the plant, plus any
give the project a more i. a prefeasibility study (PFS) i. a validation stage other civil work needed for the
rounded shape. ii. a feasibility study (FS). ii. a preparation stage project operations.

The main purpose of this The PSF is a rougher version of The best feasible idea is
phase is to flesh out selected a FS. The purpose of a PFS is to validated with detailed
business ideas and structure discard unattractive ideas and analyses of design and
the rest of the project. choose the best among many. operations. Sourcing of
permits and licenses follows.

The number of possible projects shrinks during the project development phase, as different options are assessed. One (or a subset) of initial ideas will go to execution.

Final Investment Decision (FID)

Source: AACE International recommended practices; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 2
T H E CONCEPT DE VELOPMENT PH A S E U S UALLY CO NS I STS
O F A P R E FEASI BI LI TY ST UDY A ND A F EA SI BI LI TY ST UDY

Idea Concept Business Project

development development development execution

The concept development phase usually consists of two stages and related studies; a prefeasibility stage
and study (PFS) and a feasibility stage and study (FS).

Prefeasibility Feasibility study

vs
study

A prefeasibility study scans a series of options and determines

the best one in the set. The feasibility study analyzes in depth
Scope the best solution from the prefeasibility phase.

Uncertainty in the prefeasibility study is often much higher

than for the feasibility study, e.g., -35%
Uncertainty to +65% for PFS, and -22% to +35% for FS for Capital Cost.

Financial security is usually not mandatory for a PFS (though a

preliminary assessment is generally made), whereas financial
Financing bankability must be ensured at the end of the FS.

Source: AACE International recommended practices; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 3
PR E FEA SI BI LI TY ST UDI ES A R E S C R EENI NGS T H AT
I DENTI FY T H E B EST F EASI BLE OPT I ON( S ) O U T O F A S E T

Prefeasibility
study

A prefeasibility study is rough screening aiming at identifying the most promising idea(s) and discard the unattractive options. This reduces the number of
options that are chosen to proceed with a more detailed feasibility study and eventually with business development, ultimately saving time and money. Often, the
pre-feasibility study returns only one most promising option.

The assessment of the business idea has different focuses: technical, regulatory, environmental, economic and financial aspects are analysed. A pre-feasibility
study is a preliminary systematic assessment of all critical elements of the project – from technologies and costs to environmental and social impacts.

Questions to be answered in a pre-feasibility study include:

• Is the expected revenue enough to proceed with evaluating the project more in depth?
• Are there any regulatory issues of decisive importance for the project?
• Is it economically (and financially) worthwhile to go further with this idea?
• What is the project’s expected environmental and social impact?
• What are the risks and uncertainties connected to the idea?

Usually, a feasibility study concerns the analysis of an individual project only, normally with well-defined boundaries. The whole energy system is usually assumed
as given and thus related data can be used as input to the analysis.

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 4

THE 8 STEPS OF A PREFEASIBILITY STUDY
The content and topics of a prefeasibility study can be broken down in 8 steps. The last 3 steps build on the project details analysed in the first 5 steps.

1 6
Scope of the study, investment context, case
Background & scope descriptions, power system and stakeholder
Business case
overview.
Economic attractiveness for the investor (NPV, IRR..), robustness
2 of the case (sensitivity analyses). Rough financial analysis.
Revenue sources, markets, support schemes or
Revenue streams tariffs, other important regulatory aspects
7
3
Sourcing of fuel and fuel price (e.g. biomass), Environmental & social aspects
Resource evaluation assessment of natural resources and expected
energy yield Evaluation of the potential impacts on the area’s environment
and other social implications.
4
Financial & technical Estimation of CAPEX, OPEX, 8
key figures technical parameters (efficiency, lifetime)
Risk assessment
5 Assessment of project risks and potential mitigation factors.
Project size & Grid and system perspective, physical planning
restrictions issues, space requirements, other relevant barriers

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 5

DETAILED STEPS
Description of each step
of a prefeasibility study

6
 1 BACKGROUND & SCOPE Background &
scope

Revenue
The outset of a prefeasibility study should introduce the case study and shed light on the project context, touching on: streams

Resource
evaluation

Financial & technical

key figures
Location Power system context Infrastructure and logistics
Geography, weather, System description, annual demand and Ports, roads, availability of services, grid Project size &
generation, installed capacity, future restrictions
demographics infrastructure (strength of the grid at
projections connection point) Business
case

Environmental &
social aspects

Risk
assessment
Political context Regulation Stakeholders
RE and other policy targets, investment Key regulation in place and how it System operators, off-takers,
landscape, political stability affects the project governmental bodies, local population,
environmental groups
To the Business Case

→ Parameters affecting business

robustness (system
Evaluation of project boundaries and energy system considerations development, regulation,
Project boundaries need to be defined at the project’s outset. This approach clearly states to which extent investment landscape etc.).
technical, economic and environmental aspects are considered. Project boundaries can differ across themes.
→ Cost of capital, financial
For example, cost figures might concern only the facility under study (up to the grid connection point) but environment.
environmental studies can extend to larger areas impacted by the project.

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 7

 2 REVENUE STREAM Background &
scope

Revenue
One of the most important aspects of a prefeasibility study is understanding the source of revenue for the project. The main ones are: streams

Resource
Merchant project – power markets Vertically integrated system Existing Subsidy Schemes evaluation

Financial & technical

Need to collect information on historical Need to collect information on average Analyse subsidy scheme, including key figures
power prices and make a projection of generation cost in the system and current duration, remuneration, contractual
future power prices, or negotiate a PPA Project size &
procurement regulation, assess potential conditions, taxation and risks restrictions
with off-takers off-taker of PPA
Business
case

Revenues can also be stacked, i.e., they can be sourced from different support schemes, agreements and/or markets. Environmental &
social aspects

Risk
Other factors to consider include: assessment
Currency denomination (local vs international), taxation level, inflation index, possible local content requirements,
other potential revenue stream (e.g. sale of process heat, residues, by-products)

To the Business Case

Evaluation of future power demand and/or power prices → Quantified revenue sources
It is important to assess whether the revenue stream is stable over the years. This would involve an estimation of, for instance, the Power price for the entire project lifetime
(USD/kWh)
development in future power prices (if in a power market context) or the risk of a stagnation of power demand and related risk of
overcapacity in the system, which could reduce the utilization of the power plant under investigation. → Stability of revenue sources
over time to assess
Demand robustness of the business
Both yearly demand projections and load profiles are key aspects to be considered in relation to power demand, especially in (TWh) case (including outages,
non-hedged contexts. For merchant projects, the average power price, as well as its hourly distribution, should be considered. maintenance needs, demand
Official projections by system operators can be used and uncertainities assessed in relation to the project size. year
projections etc.)

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 8

 3 RESOURCE EVALUATION Background &
scope

Revenue
streams
RE mapping Resource
Tools like GIS are good for detailed mapping of wind/solar resource, hydro catchments, as well as forestry/biomass resource. evaluation

Financial & technical

At a prefeasibility stage, simpler tools like available resource maps or online databases are usually sufficient. key figures
For biomass, it is important to not only map the potential resource, but also interview potential fuel suppliers
Project size &
restrictions
Example of mapping tools:
Global Solar Atlas (include a tool for estimation of PV production) Business
case
Global Wind Atlas (include an energy yield calculator)
Google Earth Environmental &
social aspects

Risk
assessment

To the Business Case

→ Potential annual power

generation, expressed as full
load hours or capacity factor
(incl. uncertainty)

→ Total avaiability and price of

feedstock for biomass and
biogas

Source: Ea Energy Analyses; Global Solar Atlas; Global Wind Atlas; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 9
 3 RESOURCE EVALUATION Background &
scope

Revenue
streams

Technology Resource
Evaluation evaluation
parameter Wind power Solar PV plant Bioenergy power Hydro power Geothermal power
Financial & technical
key figures
Power generation Wind Sun Organic waste from Water Thermal energy within
source/fuel plants and animals Project size &
Earth’s crust restrictions

Business
Potential for Distribution of wind Global Horizontal Feedstock (fuel) Falling water having Well conditions case

power generation speeds at site, Irradiation at site availability, including certain head and flow (temperature and Environmental &
dependency preferably over (GHI), preferably over quality of feedstock rate, preferably over material makeup of social aspects
multiple years multiple years multiple years crust)
Risk
assessment

Annual power Wind speed Projections for solar Plant efficiency and Turbine efficiency, Plant efficiency and
generation distribution combined irradiation combined availability (outages, water inflow and availability (outages,
with power curve with technical maintenance, availability (outages, maintenance etc.)
conditions feedstock etc.) maintenance, wet/dry
years), environmental
restrictions

Fuel price None None Price of feedstock and None None

transportation cost

Available WindPro, WaSP PVsim, Pvgis,

software Global Wind Atlas Global Solar Atlas

Source: NEC, BPPT Engineering, Ea Energy Analyses and Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 10
 3 RESOURCE EVALUATION Background &
scope

Revenue
streams
Distribution (%) of wind speeds (m/s) Wind speed (m/s) turbine power Annual power generation (MWh)
Resource
at location (MW) curve evaluation
Wind
Financial & technical
power key figures

Project size &

Power
Share % (MW)
Total annual restrictions

Business
power generation case

(MWh) of turbine Environmental &

social aspects
Wind Speed (m/s) Wind Speed (m/s)
Risk
assessment

Determine feedstock availability Given location, prices and capacity

• Determine the type of biomass
Bioenergy
power • Determine potential of the available feedstock
Optimal Feedstock
• Mapping of the available feedstock
location price
• Determine the optimal location and size
(capital cost vs. transport) Total potential
• Determine a reasonable price for biomass
capacity (MW) Total amount Heating value
of biomass of biomass

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 11

 4 KEY TECHNOLOGY AND FINANCIAL FIGURES Background &
scope

Revenue
streams
Technology figures Financial figures Resource
evaluation
• Typical capacity of power plants (MW) • Capital cost (CAPEX and DEVEX) (USD/MW) Financial & technical
• Technical lifetime (years) • Operation and maintenance cost (OPEX) (USD/MW, USD/MWh) key figures
• Plant availability, outages (%, days) • Weighted average cost of capital (WACC) (%)
Project size &
• Efficiency (Condensing and CHP, where appropriate) (%) • Corporate tax rate (%) restrictions
• Space requirement (m2/MW) • Depreciation rate and amortization approach, if relevant
• Capacity factor ranges (%) • Inflation rate (%) Business
case
• Other technical info (e.g., power curve for wind, performance ratio • Economic lifetime of project (years)
for PV) relevant for the project purpose and expected operations Environmental &
social aspects

Risk
Uncertainty assessment

At the PFS stage of the project development, a large amount of parameters are characterized by a substnatial level of
uncertainty. In the business case analysis, it is important to understand the impact of the change in key parameters (e.g.
CAPEX, WACC, lifetime) on the economical feasibility of the project. It is therefore very important to include uncertainty
ranges on as many figures as possible, to allow for detailed sensitivity analyses. To the Business Case

→ Technology estimates for the

Sources for technological project lifetime
and financial figures
In PFS, the main sources can include → Financial figures for the
project lifetime
existing studies in the literature and
audits with industry experts and Literature Manufacturers Technology Interviews with → Uncertainty ranges for as
relevant stakeholders catalogues catalogues manufacturers many figures as possible

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 12

 4 KEY TECHNOLOGY AND FINANCIAL FIGURES Background &
scope

Revenue
Capital Expenditures (CAPEX) CAPEX breakdown (%) streams

In most energy projects, especially capital-intensive ones such as PV and DEVEX Resource
evaluation
wind, CAPEX are the most important cost figure and thus are key to Construction
determining the feasibility of the project. CAPEX includes also Financial & technical
key figures
development expenditures (DEVEX) in this guide. Soft costs
Project size &
To be considered when defining CAPEX: CAPEX restrictions

• Include each CAPEX component Business

case
• Pre-construction costs (DEVEX), such as development and CAPEX breakdown example (%)
Environmental &
planning, land acquisition, permitting and logistics and so social aspects
forth, which occur before the Final Investment Decision (FID) DEVEX
Risk
• Construction costs, which comprise equipment, grid Civil work Wind assessment
connection costs, civil works etc. (occurring after the FID) Foundation power
• Other soft expenditures such as financing, overhead costs and Installation
eventual decommissioning costs Grid connection

• Consider cost changes overtime and installation date, especially for Rotor
technologies whose costs evolve quickly like PV Nacelle
Tower
• Consider distance to the grid and cost of connection, including
evaluation of regulation on the matter (e.g., does the developer pay Land acquisition
shallow or deep connection costs?) Logistics
Soft costs
• Estimate the uncertainty, which can be used to test the case
robustness CAPEX

Source: KPMG, Danish Embassy in Jakarta, Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis 13
 5 PROJECT SIZE & SITING: SYSTEM AND GRID Background &
scope
Each technology has a list of considerations for determining a first estimation of the optimal site and size of a project, which will be finally determined
in the FS. Revenue
streams

Resource
evaluation

Wind power Solar PV plant Bioenergy power Hydro power Geothermal power Financial & technical
key figures

Project size &

Power Turbine rating and Surface area of panels Total availability of Size of reservoir or Size of well restrictions

plant sizing number of turbines feedstock river flow rate

Business
case

Environmental
aspects
Location Wind resource Space limitations, Trade off for distance: Water reservoirs or Temperature of crust,
considerations distribution, space shading between rows capital cost (lower for rivers, local water life, risk of mudslides Risk
assessment
limitations, obstacles and surface slope of larger project) vs environmental during drilling
that can disrupt the site transport cost (lower restrictions on use of
airflow and visual for small projects), water
impact on landscape alternative uses of
feedstock To the Business Case

Grid Non-dispatchable – Non-dispatchable – Dispatchable – plants Dispatchable – rapid Dispatchable – best → Expected central estimate for
integration weather dependent, weather dependent, can be ramped up and ramp rates and large economical case as project size
considerations on considerations on down, considerations ramp ranges, base load (flexibility
→ Range of potential project
security of supply and security of supply and on security of supply considerations on increases costs), sizes for eventual sensitivity
limits of grid limits of grid security of supply considerations on analysis
integration integration security of supply

Source: NEC, BPPT Engineering, Ea Energy Analyses and Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 14
 6 6BUSINESS CASE: INPUTS FOR BUSINESS CASE Background &
scope

Revenue
1 2 3 4 5 streams

Financial & technical Project size &

Background & scope Revenue streams Resource evaluation Resource
key figures restrictions evaluation

Financial & technical

key figures
From study From study From study From study From study
Parameters affecting Quantified revenue Potential annual power Technology estimates for Expected central estimate Project size &
restrictions
business robustness sources for the entire generation, expressed as the project lifetime for project size
(system development, project lifetime full load hours or capacity Business
case
regulation, investment factor (incl. uncertainty) Financial figures for the Range of potential project
landscape etc.). Stability of revenue project lifetime sizes for eventual Environmental
sources over time to Total availability and price sensitivity analysis aspects

Cost of capital, financial assess robustness of the of feedstock for biomass Uncertainty ranges for as Risk
environment. business case (including and biogas many figures as possible assessment
outages, maintenance
needs, demand projections
etc.)

Input to Business case Input to Business case Input to Business case Input to Business case Input to Business case
WACC Revenue over time Generation CAPEX and OPEX Potential capacity
CAPEX Demand Feed stock price WACC Land requirement
Outage Potential capacity Efficiency
Lifetime
Outage
Land requirement

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis. 15

 6 BUSINESS CASE: METHOD Background &
scope

Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method Discounted Cash Flow (DCF) method Revenue
• Cash flows in the earlier periods are weighted higher than cash streams

flows in the later periods Resource

𝟏
• Achieved with the discount factor: 𝒕
evaluation
𝟏+𝒓
Where 𝑟 is the chosen discount rate and 𝑡 is the number of Financial & technical
key figures

Cash flow [$]

years
• The discount rate has a large impact on the evaluation and is Project size &
also referred to as the Cost of Capital 1 2 3 4 5 restrictions

Business
Years case

Environmental
The importance of the Cost of Capital aspects
• The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is an essential
Risk
element for calculating the value of a project assessment
• The WACC is the rate that a company is expected to pay on
average to all its security holders to finance its assets Discounted CAPEX Discounted Revenue Discounted OPEX
• For a project to be financially feasible its returns (on a project
basis) must exceed the WACC
Nominal vs Real prices
Cost of • In economic language, real and nominal values represents two different
Cost of
WACC = Equity + Debt
(after tax)
ways of expressing monetary terms (i.e., units of currency).

Nominal Prices Real Prices

What you pay for a product Takes inflation into
• The WACC is especially important at capital intensive project, at any given point in time: account:
such as RE projects. The price tag on a Measure of
product purchasing power

Source: Technical University of Denmark; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.
16
 6 BUSINESS CASE: EVALUATION Background &
scope
A business case can be evaluated based on various financial metrics Revenue
streams
Key metrics for evaluation Sensitivity Analyses
Resource
evaluation
When evaluating the economic feasibility of a project, the following indicators • Often used to assess the robustness of the business case. Usually
are relevant: done on key parameters: CAPEX, fuel price, WACC. Financial & technical
▪ Also, important to consider technical assumptions (e.g., wind key figures

• Net Present Value (NPV) – shows what a project is worth to us today based production estimates)
Project size &
on discounted cash flows. Enables comparisons of projects with different restrictions
timings and cash flow distributions over the project lifetime. • Not to be confused with scenario analyses!
𝑇 • In scenario analyses we create a certain picture of the future Business
𝐶𝐹𝑡 case
𝑁𝑃𝑉 = −𝐶𝐹0 + ෍ (e.g., “Business as Usual”, “Green Scenario”)
1+𝑟 𝑡
𝑡=1 • In sensitivity analyses we test the robustness of a business Environmental
case against one parameter while keeping all other aspects
• Internal Rate of Return (IRR) – shows the annual effective compounded assumptions the same.
Risk
return rate of a project i.e. the annual return a project is expected to yield. assessment
The discount rate yielding an NPV of 0.
𝑇
𝐶𝐹𝑡
0 = −𝐶𝐹0 + ෍ 𝑡
𝑡=1
1 + 𝐼𝑅𝑅 Different approaches in business case evaluation

• Payback Time (PBT) – shows the number of years required to recover an • Comparison of LCOE with potential tariff or PPA
initial investment based on cumulative cash flows.
• Comparison of IRR with expected WACC or investor benchmark
• Levelised Cost Of Energy (LCOE) – shows the average cost of a project over • Evaluation of absolute value of NPV
its lifetime, taking into account the cost of capital. Often used for comparing
technologies and for tracking economic developments of technologies over • Comparison of payback time to economic lifetime and investor
time. preference or duration of PPA

Source: Technical University of Denmark; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.
17
 7 ENVIRONMENTAL & SOCIAL ASPECTS Background &
scope

Environmental and social impacts are an important part of feasibility study and prefeasibility study that are often overlooked due to a focus on the economics. This Revenue
streams
allows to hedge against serious problem, which might arise during the project implementation and operations. In a prefeasibility study, these issues should be
mapped as a minimum. The assessment can be based on current regulation, past experience (when relevant), and acceptance levels. Environmental and social Resource
evaluation
considerations can also feed into the Risk Assessment.
CO2 Financial & technical
Key aspects to consider: RE projects: avoided emissions NOx PM key figures

• Pollution of air, water and soil Often, when investing in RE projects, there are positive environmental externalities for
Project size &
restrictions
• Land use example in terms of avoided PM, NOx, SOx, and CO2 emissions. It is relevant to quantify
• Visual impact, noise, odor this benefit of the projects. Business
case
• Wildlife endangerment
• Emissions of pollutants (PM, NOx, SOx) and carbon dioxide (CO2) To assess the avoided emission of CO2 and other pollutants, existing or alternative Environmental &
• Conflict with other local activities (e.g., agriculture/fishing) energy projects need to be considered. This is often complicated since the power social aspects

• Project acceptance from local stakeholders sector is complex and interconnected (import/export), generation patterns change Risk
hour-by-hour and the fleet evolves overtime. assessment
Considerations should be made also with respect to current or
alternative technologies deployed. Two main approaches exist:

• Average approach: today’s average emissions for the power sector are calculated
based on annual production and it is assumed that the project replaces the average
annual generation.

• Marginal approach: this entails the identification of the marginal production

technology that is replaced by the project, hour-by-hour and over time. Energy
systems models can support this activity.

Source: Technical University of Denmark; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.
18
 8 RISK ASSESSMENT Background &
scope

Revenue
Risk is an event or a set of events that, should they occur, will have an effect on the project. Risks are classified within the following categories: streams

Resource
evaluation
Political risks – changes in support schemes, taxation rates, Technical risks – efficiency, maintainability, new
international sanctions etc. technologies etc. Financial & technical
key figures

Project size &

Economic risks – Interest rates, credit risk, option price etc. Social risks – safety, labor, environmental etc. restrictions

Business
These potential risks should be screened, and main project risks identified – Useful tool is the Risk Matrix case

For each risk identified, a dedicated risk mitigation measure (or strategy) should be identified – Useful tool is a Risk Register Environmental
aspects

Risk
assessment

Risk Matrix Risk Register

• Plots Likelihood vs Impact for Set up as a table that should at least contain the following themes:
the identified risks
• Likelihood is estimated as a level Risk name Description Impact Action
Impact

of probability
Short name of Brief Describe the Identify which
• Impact is normally estimated in
the identified description of impact that the actions to take
terms of potential capital loss
risks the risks – risk can have for mitigating
should enable a on the project the risk
discussion

Likelihood
Source: KPMG, Danish Embassy in Jakarta, Danish Energy Agency; Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis 19
 8 RISK ASSESSMENT: SPECIFIC RISK Background &
scope

Each power generating technology has its own list of potential risks factors to be considered Revenue
streams

Resource
evaluation

Wind power Solar PV plant Bioenergy power Hydro power Geothermal power Financial & technical
key figures

Pre-construction Pre-construction Pre-construction Pre-construction Pre-construction Project size &

• Change in PPA/tariff • Change in PPA/tariff • Change in PPA/tariff • Change in PPA/tariff • Change in PPA/tariff restrictions
structure structure structure structure structure
• Local opposition stop/delay • Local opposition stop/delay • Fail to secure feedstock • Complex licensing and • Resource characteristics Business
case
construction construction supply ahead of consent processes different than anticipated
• Land acquisition issues • Land acquisition issues construction • Errors in geotechnical • Complex licensing and Environmental
• Limits in the infrastructure • Limits in the infrastructure • Land use competition for surveys consent processes aspects
to deliver materials or to deliver materials or agriculture land • Limitations due to • Errors in geotechnical
Risk
construct construct • Evaluation of sustainability environmental constraints surveys assessment
• Shortage skilled personnel • Shortage skilled personnel of supply of feedstock • Local opposition stop/delay • Local opposition stop/delay
construction construction

Post-construction Post-construction Post-construction Post-construction Post-construction

• Wind resource less • Higher degradation of • Overlapping activities with • Risk of persistence of • Risk of reduction of steam
consistent than anticipated panels the agriculture sector consecutive dry years pressure/temperature
• Curtailment • Curtailment reducing availability of • Post-commissioning • Depletion of the well ahead
• Damage from extreme • Damage from extreme feedstock limitations of operations for of time
event event • Increase in feedstock price environmental constraints • Technology risk
• Increased requirements for • Increased requirements for • Fuel supply agreements • Technology risk (breakdown, lower
forecasting or regulation forecasting or regulation • Reduction running hours (breakdown, lower performance)
• Technology risk • Technology risk (e.g., lower power demand) performance)
(breakdown, lower (breakdown, lower • Technology risk
performance) performance) (breakdown, lower
performance)
Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.
20
 8 RISK ASSESSMENT: GENERAL RISK Background &
scope

Revenue
streams

Resource
evaluation

Financial & technical

Financial risks key figures
Regulatory risks General risks
Project size &
restrictions
Currency – unfavorable moves in exchange Change in law – unfavorable laws Cybersecurity – risk of hacking and lock-
Business
rates changes down from cyber-attack case

Inflation – inflation rate higher than Amendment of terms – unfavorable Terrorism – risk of terror attack and Environmental
aspects
expected changes in terms damage to the project
Risk
assessment
Interest rate – interest rate higher than Revision of support – unfavorable changes Natural catastrophe – risk of natural
expected in subsidies and support event that will damage the project

Off-taker default – sudden and persistent

loss of demand

Source: Ea Energy Analyses and Viegand Maagoe analysis.

21
REFERENCES

[1] AACE International. Evaluating Capital Cost Estimation Programs. Chemical Engineering. August 2011

[2] Ea Energy Analyses. Biomass for energy - Prefeasibility Study of a Biomass Plant in Java. February 2018

[3] KPMG, Danish Embassy in Jakarta, Danish Energy Agency. Lombok - Prefeasibility studies on RE solutions. January 2019

[4] Technical University of Denmark. Feasibility studies and assessment of energy technologies. 2020

[5] NEC, BPPT Engineering, Ea Energy Analyses, Danish Energy Agency. Technology Data for the Indonesian Power Sector - Catalogue for Generation and Storage of Electricity. December 2017

22
GLOSSARY AND DEFINITIONS
Net Present Value Net present value (NPV) is the difference between the present value of cash inflows and the 𝑵𝑷𝑽 = −𝐶𝐹0 + σ𝑇𝑡=1
𝐶𝐹𝑡
present value of cash outflows over a period of time. 1+𝑟 𝑡
(NPV) Formula notation: CF0 is the cash flow at year 0 and CFt is the cash flow at year t, r is the
discount rate considered and T the total lifetime of the plant.

The internal rate of return is a discount rate that makes the net present value (NPV) of all cash 𝑇
Internal Rate of Return 𝐶𝐹𝑡
flows equal to zero in a discounted cash flow analysis. 0 = −𝐶𝐹0 + ෍
(IRR) 1 + 𝑰𝑹𝑹 𝑡
𝑡=1

Weighted Average Cost The weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is a calculation of a firm's cost of capital in which 𝐸 𝐷
𝑾𝑨𝑪𝑪 = 𝐸+𝐷 ∗ 𝑅𝑒 + 𝐸+𝐷 ∗ 𝑅𝑑 ∗ (1 − 𝑇)
each category of capital is proportionately weighted.
of Capital Formula notation: E and D are the total Equity and Debt, Re and Rd the return on equity and debt
(WACC) respectively and T the tax rate in the country.

Levelized Cost of The LCOE can also be regarded as the minimum constant price at which electricity must be sold 𝑳𝑪𝑶𝑬 =
𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑐𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑜𝑣𝑒𝑟 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒
in order to break even over the lifetime of the project. 𝑡𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑙𝑖𝑓𝑒𝑡𝑖𝑚𝑒 𝑑𝑖𝑠𝑐𝑜𝑢𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑜𝑢𝑡𝑝𝑢𝑡
Electricity Formula notation: It , Mt and Ft are respectively the investment, maintenance and fuel cost at σ𝑇𝑡=1 𝑡
𝐼 + 𝑀𝑡 + 𝐹𝑡
(LCoE) 1+𝑟 𝑡
the year t, Et is the output of the plant at the year t, r is the discount rate considered and T the =
𝐸𝑡
total lifetime of the plant σ𝑇𝑡=1 𝑡
1+𝑟

Full load hours and Full load hours (FLH) is a convenient notion expressing the equivalent number of hours of 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑔𝑒𝑛𝑒𝑟𝑎𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 [𝑀𝑊ℎ]
𝑭𝑳𝑯 [ℎ] =
production at rated capacity that would give the same annual generation. Multiplying the FLH 𝑅𝑎𝑡𝑒𝑑 𝑝𝑜𝑤𝑒𝑟 [𝑀𝑊]
Capacity factor value by the installed capacity gives the production throughout one year.
The concept is equivalent to that of capacity factor (%); to convert capacity factor to FLH simply 𝐹𝐿𝐻
multiply the capacity factor by the total number of hours in a year (8760). 𝑪𝑭[%] =
8760
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LIST OF ACRONYMS

CAPEX Capital Expenditures OEM Original Equipment Manufacturer

CHP Combined Heat and Power OPEX Operational Expenditures

DCF Discounted Cash Flow PBT Pay-Back Time

FID Final Investment Decision PFS Prefeasibility Study

FS Feasibility study PPA Power Purchase Agreement

GHI Global Horizontal Irradiation PV Photovoltaics

GIS Geographical Information System USD United Stated Dollars

LCOE Levelized Cost Of Electricity WACC Weighted Average Cost of Capital

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