Course Code Course Title Core / Elective

Road Safety Engineering Elective

OE 801 CE Contact Hours per Week CIE SEE Credits
3 30 70 3

Course Instructor:
Syed Sadiq Ahmed Khaleel
Assistant Professor, Civil Engg. Dept.
Deccan College of Engineering & Technology
sadiq.ahmed.khaleel@deccancollege.ac.in
roadsafetyengg.blogspot.com
Course Objectives: Course Outcomes:
• Introduction to various factors • Prepare accident investigation reports
considered for road safety and and database
management • Apply design principles for roadway
• Explain the road safety geometrics improvement with various
appurtenances and design elements types of traffic safety appurtenances
• Discuss the various traffic or tools
management techniques • Manage traffic including incident
management
• Apply crash reduction techniques
• Design for urban infrastructure
considering safety aspects

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Introduction to Syllabus:
• UNIT - I
Introduction
Traffic Safety Analysis
• UNIT – II
Accident Analysis
• UNIT - III
Road Safety in Planning & Geometric Design
• UNIT - IV
Traffic Signals & Road Signs
Safety at Construction Site
• UNIT – V
Traffic Management Safety Audit 3
What is Road Safety Engineering?
• Road Safety Engineering is a process, based on analysis of road and
traffic related accident information, which applies engineering
principles in order to identify road design or traffic management
improvements that will reduce the number and severity of road
accidents in the most cost effective manner.
• It is a system of goals and strategies focuses on providing a road traffic
system free from death and serious injury.
• The safe system guides the planning, design, management, operation
and use of the road traffic system so as to provide safety in spite of
human fallibility.
 Unit – 1
• Introduction:
Road Safety Scenario in India & World.
Road Accident Characteristics.
• Traffic Safety Analysis:
Fundamentals of traffic Engineering.
Basic characteristics of motor vehicle traffic, traffic capacity.
Application of traffic control devices.
Design of parking facilities.
Traffic engineering studies.
Statistical methods in traffic safety analysis (Regression Method,
Poisson Distribution, Chi – Squared Distribution, Statistical
Comparisons).
Road Safety Scenario in India & World
• Road length in India has increased from about 4 lakh kilometers in the 1950s to
about 55 lakh kilometers in 2015. (2nd largest road network in the world).
• National Highways 2% of the road network but carries 40% of the countries road
traffic.
• State Highways 3% of the total road length.
• Rural roads -61%, and PWD roads - 20% of the total road length.
• Urban roads have a 9% share in the road network.
• Project Roads - 7% , include roads built by various state departments such as
forest, irrigation, electricity, public sector undertakings such as Steel Authority of
India, and the Border Roads Organization.
• According to official statistics 151,417 persons were killed and 469,418 injured in
road traffic crashes in India in 2018 (Transport Research Wing 2019).
• We estimated that there were 2.2 million injuries in India that warranted hospital
admission, and 18 million injuries warranted an emergency room visit (Bhalla et
al. 2014).
• These data show that the number of fatalities has continued to increase at about
seven percent a year over the past decade except over the last couple of years.
• The number of cars and motorised two-wheelers (MTW) registered in 2016 was
30.2 and 168.9 million respectively. If we assume that ~60% of them were
actually on the road, then the actual number of cars and MTWs present on the
roads would be approximately 18 and 101 million respectively, and total personal
vehicle ownership estimated at ~9 per 100 persons in 2016.
• Two recent studies have estimated national road traffic deaths using data from the
Sample Registration System, Registrar general of India. Dandona et al. (2020) as part
of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study, estimated the rate
of deaths due to road injuries in each state of India from 1990 to 2017 based on several
verbal autopsy data sources. They estimate that in 2017, 218,876 deaths (95% UI
201,734 to 231,141) due to road injuries occurred in India. Their mean estimate is for
2017 is 48% higher than the Government of India figure for the same year.

• Another study by Menon et al. (2019) creates National Burden Estimates to provide
transparent and understandable disease burdens at the national levels and estimates RTI
deaths in 2017 in India to be 275,000. The latter figure is 82% higher than the
Transport Research Wing estimate for 2017. the estimate of serious injuries requiring
hospitalization would be 2,262,000 annually, and that for minor injuries 7,539,000.
Road Accidents:
• An accident /collision which occurs on roadway due to traffic results in injure,
loss of life, damage of property or machine.
Road Accidents Terminology:
• Fatal accident: (Loss of life): is one which involves a person who dies as a result of an injury
sustained in the accident (usually within 30 days), it excludes confirmed suicides
• Serious accident: (Major injuries): involves a person who is detained in hospital as an in-
patient, or who suffers any of the following injuries: fractures, concussion, internal injuries,
crushing, severe cuts and lacerations, or severe general shock, that require medical treatment
• Slight accident: (Minor injuries): is one involving a person who is only slightly injured, e.g. a
person who sustains a sprain, bruise or cut, which is not judged (by the police) to be severe, or
slight shock requiring only roadside attention
• Damage-only accident: (property or Machine damage) does not involve people who sustain
personal injuries
FACTS ABOUT ROAD ACCIDENTS IN INDIA:
• One serious road accident in the country occurs every minute and 16 die on Indian roads every hour.
• 1214 road crashes occur every day in India.
• Two wheelers account for 25% of total road crash deaths.
• 20 children under the age of 14 die every day due to road crashes in in the country.
• 377 people die every day, equivalent to a jumbo jet crashing every day.
• Two people die every hour in Uttar Pradesh – State with maximum number of road crash deaths.
• Tamil Nadu is the state with the maximum number of road crash injuries.
• 1/3rd of road accidents occurs on NHs only whereas the percentage share of NHs in the total road network in
India is merely 2% .
• Over 80% vulnerable road users (pedestrians, bicyclists, users of two wheeler/auto) are killed in road
accidents in India.
• Nearly 90% of the road accidents are attributed to the drivers (human) fault leaving only 10% due to other
factors like poor road geometry, lack of safety elements, poor conditions of the vehicles and bad weather etc.
• about 50% road accident victims age group of less than 40years.
Top 10 Cities with the highest number of Road Crash Deaths (Rank
–Wise):

Delhi
Chennai Jaipur Bengaluru Mumbai Kanpur Lucknow Agra Hyderabad Pune
(City)
Causes of Road Accidents:
Road Users: Excessive speed and rash driving, violation of traffic rules, failure to perceive traffic
situation or sign or signal in adequate time, carelessness, fatigue, alcohol, sleep etc.
Vehicle: Defects such as failure of brakes, steering system, tyre burst, lighting system .
Road Condition - Skidding road surface, pot holes, ruts.
Road design - Defective geometric design like inadequate sight distance, inadequate width of
shoulders, improper curve design, improper traffic control devices and improper lighting,.
Environmental factors -unfavourable weather conditions like mist, snow, smoke and heavy
rainfall which restrict normal visibility and makes driving unsafe.
Other causes: Improper location of advertisement boards, gate of level crossing not closed when
required etc.
Types of Crashes:
Pedestrian-
Head-on Left turn head- Right angled Rear end
Vehicle
collisions on collisions collisions collisions
collisions

Head-on collision: is a traffic collision where the front ends of two vehicles such as motor cycle, cars,
trains, ships or planes hit each other when travelling in opposite directions.
Left turn head-on collisions: Unless the driver has the right-of-way, the vehicle making a left-hand turn
must yield to other vehicles. This is why, in most cases, the driver making the turn will bear liability for the
accident. ... Speeding out in front of an oncoming vehicle is a risk that could result in the driver's fault for a
collision.
Right angled collisions: In the United States and Canada this collision type is also known as right-angle
collision or T-bone collision; it is also sometimes referred to by the abbreviation "AABS" for "auto
accident, broadside". After the collision, the involved vehicles may be stuck together by the folding of
their parts around each other.
Rear-end collision: (often called simply rear-end or in the UK a shunt) occurs when a vehicle crashes into
the one in front of it. Common factors contributing to rear-end collisions include driver inattention or
distraction, tailgating, panic stops, and reduced traction due to wet weather or worn pavement.
Type of Crash & its Probable Causes:
Black Spot:
At certain sites, the level of risk of road accidents is higher than the general level of risk in surrounding
areas.
Crashes tend to be concentrated at these relatively high-risk locations. These locations with an abnormally
high number of crashes are generally described as black spots.
Why Black Spot?
Data/information pertaining to the locations of identified black spots provide us the causes for appearing of
such black spot.
• Excessive traffic, no sub way, no fly over bridge.
• Curved and narrow road and no bypasses.
• Densely populated area on both side of the road and heavy traffic.
• Blind turns and damaged surface of roads.
• Narrow bridge, steep slope and curve.
• 120 black spots are identified across our city and suburb of Hyderabad. Where 26 were located in
GHMC limits.
Traffic Safety Analysis: Fundamentals of traffic Engineering
• Traffic engineering is the branch of engineering which deals with the improvement of traffic
performance.
• Traffic engineering is the application of engineering tools & techniques for safe, efficient, economic
and rapid flow of traffic.

Traffic Types Traffic

Components Vehicle Types

Non
Pedestrian Vehicular Motorised Motorised
Human Machine Vehicle
Traffic Traffic Vehicle
 Traffic Engineering is classified into seven
categories

Traffic Traffic
Characteristics Studies Geometric Planning Traffic Admini
& Design & Road
Analysis Operation, stration
Road user Vehicular Analysi Safety &
Regulation Aspects
characteristics characteristics s & Control Manage
Dynamic ment
Static Traffic
Physical characteristi characteristic flow/volume
cs s
Mental Speed of Traffic speed
Vehicle vehicle
Psychological dimensions Traffic density
Breaking
Weight of characteristic
Environmental
loaded
Behaviour of vehicle
driver as a road
user Axle
configuration
Behaviour of
pedestrian as a Turning radius
road user & path
Road User Characteristics:

Physical characteristics:
Vision:
very distinct vision: zone of acute 3 degree angle cone about retina center
Satisfactory vision: 10 to 12 degree cone about retina center (sign board location)
Peripheral vision: deals with total visual field of two eyes, 1600 horizontal, 1150 vertical,
varies with speed, the angle of cone falls from 1100 at 30kmph to 400 at 100kmph
Glare recovery time:- 3 to 6 seconds
Hearing: an aid to vehicle driver and pedestrian, Temporary physical characteristics are fatigue,
alcohol /drugs & illness.
Visual Limit of Eye:
• Acute or clear vision cone-3° to 10° around the line of sight
• Fairly clear vision cone-10° to 12° around the line of sight; colour and shape can be identified in this
field.
• Peripheral vision-This field may extend up to 90° to the right and left of the centreline of the pupil, and
up to 60° above and 70° below the line of sight.
• Stationary objects are generally not seen in the peripheral vision field, but the movement of objects
through this field is detected.

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Mental characteristics:
Knowledge: Specific information about traffic
Skill: ability acquired by training
Intelligence: The capacity to acquire and apply knowledge
Experience: The accumulation of knowledge or skill that results from direct participation in events or
activities related to traffic
Psychological factors: (PIEV) Theory: Perception, Intellection, Emotion and Volition.
Perception is the process of perceiving the sensations received through eyes, ears, nervous system and
the brain. the exact time required for this is dependent upon the individual’s psychological and
physiological build-up
Intellection is the identification of the stimuli by the development of new thoughts and ideas. It is
slightly different from simple recognition by past experiences, which is part of normal perception
process.
Emotion is the personal trait of the individual that governs his decision making process, after the
perception and intellection of the stimuli
Volition is the will to react to a situation
Break reaction time is the time lag between the perception of danger and the effective application of
the breaks
IRC/AASHTO suggests Perception and Break reaction time as 2.5seconds
Environmental factors:
• Traffic stream characteristics (density, speed, volume)
• Facilities to the traffic (no. of lanes, marking, safety furniture….)
• Atmospheric conditions and the locality (rainy, foggy, slippery, dark)

Vehicular Characteristics:
Different classes of vehicle:
On any given road, vehicles of different classes move. On Indian roads, the vehicle classes include:
Motorized Vehicles:
• Motorized two- wheelers
• Motorized three- wheelers
• Passenger cars (or automobiles)
• Buses
• Single-unit trucks
• Semi-trailers
• Truck-trailer combination
Non-motorized vehicles:
cycles, rickshaws, cycle carts and animal drawn carts.
Static characteristics:
Maximum dimensions of road vehicles:
Width= 2.45m,
Height=3.8-4.2m for single decked, 4.75m for double decked
Length =11m for single unit with 2 Axles
12m for single unit with more than 2axles
16m for tractor semi trailer combination
18m for tractor and trailer combination
Weight of loaded vehicle:
Single axle 10.2 tonnes, Tandem axle 18 tonnes
Axle configuration:
No. of standard axles count used in pavement structure design
Power to weight ratio of vehicle:
It characterizes the ease with which a vehicle can move (human powered vs motorized vehicles, heavy vs
light vehicle)
Turning Radius and Turning Path:
Radius of circle traced out by vehicle when its steering turned to the max. extent possible. Effective width
27
of vehicle increases near turns.
Dynamic characteristics:
Speed and acceleration:
Depends on engine power. Useful for geometric design of roadway
Stability of vehicle:
It depends on vehicle dimensions and Center of Gravity.
Braking distance:
Depends on the speed and friction between tyre surface and pavement surface
d=V2/254(f+/-G) in meters
where v=speed in KMPH, f=coefficient of friction, G=gradient
• Acceleration characteristics of a vehicle need to be understood when designing the intersection
elements and overtaking sight distance. Acceleration rate is governed by the vehicle
transmission system, weight and horsepower.
• The acceleration rate also varies with speed, being high at lower speeds and low at higher
speeds.
Acceleration rates of different types of vehicles:
• Passenger cars: 3 – 8 kmph per sec
• Trucks and buses: 1 – 4 kmph per sec.
Braking System:
• The quality of the overall braking system as an accident-avoidance mechanism depends upon the ability
to stop quickly in a stable and controllable manner
• Truck stability and control during braking depend upon avoiding wheel locking. If the front wheels
lock, the vehicle will not be responsive to steering. If the tractor rear wheels lock, a tractor-semitrailer
may jack knife. If trailer wheels lock, a trailer swing may occur.
• All of these conditions are undesirable and each of them could lead to an accident. Each of them
represents a situation in which the braking force demand at some axle set exceeds the amount of force
capability available from the load on the axle set and the prevailing friction level of the tire/road
interface.
Safer Vehicles:
• Safe Vehicles are the need of the hour as it mostly deals with In-vehicle technology that can save many
precious lives on the roads and avert fatalities.
Various In-vehicle technologies are:
• Cruise Control
• Anti-Collision Devices
• Anti-Braking Systems (ABS)
• Electronic brake-force distribution (EBD)
• Electronic Stability Control (ESC)
• Car Breathalyzer
Traffic Studies and Analysis:
Traffic studies are carried out to collect the traffic data and to analyse the traffic characteristics.
Objectives:
• to obtain the type of traffic and volume of traffic.
• To design the geometric features and pavement thickness.
• To analyse road the accident.
• To know the existing facilities of road way & its improvement.
Traffic Volume/flow:(q)
The number of vehicles passing a section of road per unit length of the road per unit time is called traffic
volume.
q=n/t where n is no. of vehicles passing a section of road & t is unit time per hour or per day.
Traffic Speed:(V)
It is the average speed of all the vehicles passing a section or specified location of road.
v +v +v
V= 1 2 3
n
Traffic Density:
The maximum number of vehicles occupying per unit length of the road is called traffic density.
K=n/l where l is unit length i.e. 1km. & n is no. of vehicles.
Highway Capacity:
• The Highway Capacity Manual(2010) defines the capacity
as the maximum roadway rate at which persons or vehicles
can be reasonably expected to traverse a point or a uniform
segment of a lane or roadway during a given time period,
under prevailing roadway, traffic and control conditions
• Highway capacity is defined by the Highway Capacity
Manual as the maximum hourly rate at which persons or
vehicles can be reasonably expected to traverse a point or a
uniform segment of a lane or roadway during given time
period under prevailing roadway, traffic and control
conditions. The highway capacity depends on certain
conditions as listed below
Traffic conditions:
It refers to the traffic composition in the road such as the mix of
cars, trucks, buses etc in the stream. It also include peaking
characteristics, proportions of turning movements at
intersections.
Road way characteristics:
This points out to the geometric characteristics of the road. These include lane width, shoulder width, lane
configuration, horizontal alignment and vertical alignment.
Control conditions:
This primarily applies to surface facilities and often refer to the signals at intersections etc.

• Again capacity can be defined for a point or uniform section. Capacity is estimated for segments having
uniform conditions. Points where these conditions change represent the boundaries where separate
analysis may be required. Capacity is the maximum flow rate that a facility can afford. This maximum
flow rate is taken for the worst 15 minutes of the peak hours while finding out the capacity. Capacity is
measured as a reasonably expected value and not the maximum flow rate ever observed in the facility.
This is because the measured capacity at a single location will show significant variation from day to
day. Further, local driving habits also produce variations in the observed capacity.
Factors Affecting Level of Service:
The level of service can be derived from a road under different operating characteristics and traffic
volumes.
The factors affecting level of service (LOS) can be listed as follows:
• Speed and travel time
• Traffic interruptions/restrictions
• Freedom to travel with desired speed
• Driver comfort and convenience
• Operating cost.

• Capacity and level of service are two important terms applied to traffic operation and are given suitable
definitions by highway capacity manual. Capacity represents the ability of the system to handle traffic
whereas level of service looks at the system from the drivers perspective. The fundamental diagrams of
traffic flow can be used in the representation of level of service. Level of service ranges from level A to
F, representing the free flow conditions and F representing the worst traffic conditions like less speed,
high density etc.
Traffic Control Devices:
Three level of driver information
Negative: Planning and Execution (guide signs)
Guidance: Selecting a safe Speed and path (pavement markings, Regulatory and Warning Signs)
Control: Physical manipulation of vehicle (primarily from vehicle it self)
Positive Guidance: if drivers are given enough information when needed in useable form, they can
perform more safely and effectively.
Avoid:
• Information overload
• Defective information display
• Missing information
• Deficient traffic control device
 Traffic Signs
 Pavement Markings
 Traffic Signals
Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD):
Principles of the MUTCD
• Fulfil a need
• Command attention
• Convey a clear, simple message
• Command respect of road users
• Give adequate time for a proper response

Contents of the MUTCD

• Detailed standards for physical design of device
• Detailed standards and guidelines for placement of device
• Warrants that justify use of a particular device

Legal wording in the MUTCD

• Shall (mandatory)
• Should (advisory)
• May (permissive)
Manual on Uniform Traffic Control Devices (MUTCD)
http://mutcd.fhwa.dot.gov/
Promotes uniformity in design and application.
Traffic Control Devices:
Design of Parking Facility:
OVERVIEW OF CMFs, CMFUNCTIONS AND SPFs: (Crash Modification Factor & Safety
Performance Functions):
• A CMF is a multiplicative factor used to compute the number of crashes that would be expected after
implementing a given countermeasure at an existing roadway site or after making a change to a
roadway being designed. The CMF is multiplied by the expected crash frequency without the
countermeasure. A CMF greater than 1.0 indicates an expected increase in crashes, while a value less
than 1.0 indicates an expected reduction in crashes. For example, a CMF of 0.8 indicates a 20 percent
expected reduction in crashes.
• A CM Function is a formula used to compute the CMF for a specific site based on its characteristics. It
is not always reasonable to assume a uniform safety effect for all sites with different characteristics
(e.g., safety benefits may be greater for high traffic volumes). A countermeasure may also have several
levels or potential values (e.g., improving intersection skew angle, or widening a shoulder). A crash
modification function allows the CMF to change over the range of a variable or combination of
variables. Where possible, it is preferable to develop CM Functions as opposed to a single CMF value
since safety effectiveness most likely varies based on site characteristics. In practice, however, this is
often difficult since more data are required to detect such differences.
• The CM Function for improving intersection skew angle at a rural, four-legged, stop-controlled
intersection is a function of the absolute value of intersection angle minus 90 degrees, where the
intersection angle is in degrees, as shown in the equation
𝐶𝑀𝐹(𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝑆𝑘𝑒𝑤) = exp (0.0054 ∗ |𝐼𝑛𝑡𝑒𝑟𝑠𝑒𝑐𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛 𝐴𝑛𝑔𝑙𝑒 − 90°|)
The CM Function allows the user to calculate the CMF for a specific intersection skew angle compared to
a baseline of 90 degrees. For example, if the intersection angle is 120 degrees, the CMF is
exp(0.0054*|120º - 90º|) = 1.18. Note that the CMF is the same if the other angle of the intersection is
used: exp(0.0054*|60º - 90º|) = 1.18
As the intersection angle approaches 90 degrees, the CMF approaches 1.0. For instance, if the intersection
angle is 100 degrees, the CMF is computed as exp(0.0054*|100º - 90º|) = 1.06.
• SPFs are essentially mathematical equations that relate the expected number of crashes of different
types to site characteristics. These models always include traffic volume as a form of exposure but may
also include site characteristics such as lane width, shoulder width, radius/degree of horizontal curves,
presence of turn lanes (at intersections), and traffic control
(at intersections).
The following is an example of an SPF for a segment of road:
Crashes/mile/year = ∝ 𝐴𝐴𝐷𝑇 𝑏1 exp(𝑏2 × Lane Width)
Where , b1, and b2 are parameters estimated in the modeling process, AADT is the estimated average
annual daily traffic volume on the roadway, and lane width is the width of the travel lanes measured in
feet. Safety performance functions are used in the development of CMFs through before-after studies and
in this context are crash prediction models. With caution, they can be used to develop CMFs through cross-
sectional studies; in this context they are explanatory models since the variable coefficients are used to
estimate the CMFs that reflect the effect on safety of changing the value of a variable.

Time Trends in CMF Estimation From Before-After Studies:

Another confounding factor is general time trends in expected crashes. Time trends may occur due to
several unmeasured changes that can occur including: demographic changes, weather, crash reporting
practices, levels of enforcement, etc
Correlation Between Predictor Variables in Estimating CMFs from SPFs
A high degree of correlation among explanatory variables in the model makes it very difficult to determine
a reliable estimate of the effects of particular variables. For example, if horizontal curvature is correlated
with clear zone/roadside hazards, then it is difficult to isolate the safety effect of horizontal curvature. It
may be tempting to remove one of the correlated variables, but this can lead to omitted variable bias.
STATISTICAL TOOLS COMMONLY APPLIED IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SPFs AND CMFs:
• Generalized Linear Modeling
The most common approach in road safety research for the development of SPFs is to apply generalized
linear modeling with a negative binomial error distribution and log link function. The negative binomial
distribution has been adopted because it is appropriate for non-negative count data (crash frequencies) and
reflects the observed over dispersion found in crash data.

Recent advances have seen some researchers apply alternate model specifications including the following:
Poisson log-normal.
Conway-Maxwell-Poisson.
Random parameter negative binomial.
Full Bayes Markov Chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods.
The Full Bayes MCMC methods are particularly appealing in that they have the capability of allowing
complex model forms, accounting for spatial correlation and the use of prior information about estimated
parameters.
Determining Functional Form of Models:
• There are few available tools applied in road safety research for determining the appropriate model form.
Typical measures of goodness of fit include the t-statistic of estimated parameters, chi-square statistics,
Akaike’s information criterion and the Bayesian Information Criterion.

• Testing of variables for inclusion is sometimes done through a forward or backward stepwise regression.
Some methods for determining the functional form are described below.

Integrate-Differentiate Method:

The method is based on the Empirical Integral Function. To illustrate we will use the traffic volume
variable AADT for road segments of equal length. The data are divided into groups, for example, 0–1,000,
1,001–2,000, etc. For each group the average crash rate is determined and the area of the bin is equal to
this average crash rate multiplied by the bin width (1,000 in this case). The value of the Empirical Integral
Function is then the sum of bin areas from the lowest AADT group up to that boundary. In such a plot
some order can be seen whereas in a simple scatterplot of crashes versus a variable of interest it is very
difficult to perceive any pattern.
• The essence here is that there exists some function linking crashes to AADT. There then exists an
Integral Function as well. We can use the Empirical Integral Function to make an informed judgment
about what the true Integral Function is. If this is successful, then the function linking crashes to the
variable of interest is the derivative of the Integral Function.

Statistical Methods in Traffic Safety Analysis:

• Regression Method

• Chi –Square Distribution Method

• Poisson Distribution Method

Poisson Distribution in Accident Analysis:

• Poisson distribution is appropriate for accident study because accidents are prone by the
loss if chance and the occurrence of accidents.
• It is a rare event in time or in distance or amongst drivers.
• The mathematical formula for Poisson distribution is:
• P( r)= (e-m mr)/r! Equation-1
• Where, P(r)= probability of occurrence of r events.
• m= Average rate of occurrence of events.
• e= Base of Napierian logarithms.
• Applying the above formula to determine the probability of a driver causing an accident.
• m= PM
• Where,
• M= kilometers driven by each driver.
• P= probability of having of an accident per kilometer travelled.
• m= Average rate of occurrence of accidents in a travel of M kilometers length.

• The probability of a driver having r accidents ,

• P( r)= (e-m mr) / r! Equation-2
• Also the no. of drivers having “r” accidents
• P( r)=N ( (e-m mr) /r! ) ..…Equation-3
• Where N= no. of accidents
• In the above formula value of P is very small and the value of N is very large.
• equation-2 can be used to determine the probability of accidents occurring in a given
time span.
• Let m be the average no. of accidents occurring in a year at a given location.
• Then, P( r)= (e-m mr) / r!.
Problem:2
• It is observed that on an average a vehicle driver drives 5000km driving the course of a
year. The probability of having an accident is 100 per 200 million vehicles kms . What is
probability of driver having at least 2 accidents during his driving carrier extending to 25
years.

• Sol: no.of accidents = 100 per 200 million vehicle Kms

P = 100/ 200000000 = 0.0000005
Probability of having an accident per km travelled P= 0.0000005.
Kms driven by each driver M = 5000X25 = 1,25,000 km
m = PM = 0.0000005 x 125000 = 0.0625
P(r) = {e-m. mr / r! } = e -0.0625 ( 0.0625)r / r!
P(r= at least 2 accidents ) P(r>2) = 1-p (r<2) = 1 –( p(r=0)+p( r=1)
= 1-p(r=0)-p(r=1)
= 1-p(r=0)-p(r=1)

= 1- { (e-0.0625x 0.0625o / 0! )-( e -0.0625(0.0625)1) / 1! ) }

=1- e -0.0625 – e-0.0625 x 0.0625
= 1-e -0.0625( 1-0.0625)
= 1- e-0.0625 x 0.9375
= 0.119301.
Problem:3
The accident records of three consecutive years at an uncontrolled junction indicate the
following no.of accidents.
year no.of accidents
1972 3
1973 6
1974 9
Calculate the probability of 4 accidents occurring per year at the site :r=4 accidents
m= Average rate of occurrence of accidents
m = 3+6+9 / 3 = 6
p(r) = {e –m m r / r! }
p(4) = e-6 * 64 / 4!
= 0.133
Nonparametric Method:
• The nonparametric approach is simple to apply and only assumes a Poisson distribution
for the accidents.
To estimate the number of accidents, ak expected to occur in an equivalent after period on
a system that had k accidents in the before period, we need
Nk = number of systems with k accidents, and
Nk+1 = number of systems with (k+1) accidents.
Now, ak =(k+1)*N(k + 1) / Nk
Empirical Bayes Method:
• The empirical Bayes method assumptions are (1) a Poisson distribution for the accidents,
and (2) a Gamma distribution for the distribution of the averages in the population of
systems.
• With these two assumptions, the number of systems with k accidents must obey the
negative binomial distribution. The expected number of accidents, a’k, in the after period
on a system that had k accidents in the before period is
a'k =(k+1)*N’(k + 1) / N’k
Safety Performance Function (SPF):
• SPF is an equation used to predict the average number of crashes per year at a location as a function of
exposure and, in some cases, roadway or intersection characteristics (e.g., number of lanes, traffic
control, or median type) (1). For highway segments, exposure is represented by the segment length and
annual average daily traffic (AADT) associated with the study section
• Application: SPFs are used to predict crash frequency for a given set of site conditions. The predicted
crashes from the SPF can be used alone or in combination with the site-specific crash history (i.e.,
Empirical Bayes method) to compare the safety performance of a specific site under various conditions.
• The Empirical Bayes method is used to estimate the expected long-term crash experience, which is a
weighted average of the observed crashes at the site of interest and the predicted crashes from an SPF