American Black Bear Management Plan

(Ursus americanus)

©Danita Delimont

Wildlife Ecology and Conservation 11:216:464

Fall 2021

Hexiang Yin

Zachary Zentz

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Table of Contents
List of Figures ................................................................................................................................. 3

I. Introduction ................................................................................................................................. 4

I. 1. Species Description and Taxonomy .................................................................................... 4

I. 2. Life History and Ecology .................................................................................................... 5

I. 3. Population Status and Distribution ...................................................................................... 7

I. 4. Threats ................................................................................................................................. 8

II. Current Conservation and Management Efforts....................................................................... 10

II. 1. Current Regulation ........................................................................................................... 10

II. 2. Habitat Conservation - Bear Management Zones (BMZ) ................................................ 12

II. 3. Public Outreach and Education ........................................................................................ 13

II. 4. Population Viability Analysis. ......................................................................................... 14

III. Conservation and Management Plan ...................................................................................... 16

III. 1. Pre-Management Models matrices analysis.................................................................... 16

III. 1. I Stage Structure Matrix models ................................................................................. 16

III. 1. II Sensitivity and Elasticity Matrices .......................................................................... 17

III. 1. III. Stochastic Matrix Models ..................................................................................... 18

III. 2. Conservation strategy...................................................................................................... 20

III. 3. Conclusion ...................................................................................................................... 22

Literature Cited ............................................................................................................................. 23

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List of Figures
Figure 1: A phylogenetic tree of family Ursidae showing divergence times in millions of years
on the scale. Adapted from Puckett et al................................................................................. 4
Figure 2: No. 56, the female American black bear waking up in the woods of Northern
Minnesota after a sedative. From the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources. ............ 5
Figure 3: A diagram outlining the life cycle of the American black bear (Ursus americana). Life
stages are as follows: cub (0-1 years old), yearling (1-2 years old), sub-adult (~2-3 years
old), adult (~4+ years old). From iSeeMammals.org.............................................................. 6
Figure 4: A population distribution map of the American black bear. Areas marked in red
represent the latest known range of the species. Adapted from the International Union for
Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources. ..................................................................... 7
Figure 5: A hotspot map of vehicle motor accidents involving bears in Yosemite National Park,
California. Light shades of orange suggest low incidence reports while dark orange
indicates high incidence locations. Image credit to Keep Bears Wild .................................... 8
Figure 6: A photo of a NJ hunting licenses.................................................................................. 10
Figure 7: The Green Acre in NJ .................................................................................................... 12
Figure 8: The Bear Management Zones in NJ .............................................................................. 12
Figure 9: The Bear distribution developing situation in NJ since 1995 ....................................... 13
Figure 10: The PVA data for black bear in NJ ............................................................................. 15
Figure 11: Decadal black bear population simulations after the inclusion of stochastic values... 15
Figure 12: The five-stage matrix model of the American Black Bear, Where C represent Cub, Yl
represent Yearling, Sa represent Sub-adult, a represent Adult, and Oa represent Old-adult 16
Figure 13: The projection of population size of bear in 100 years ............................................... 17
Figure 14: The sensitivity matrix and elasticity matrix for black bear ......................................... 18
Figure 15: The mean λ with added stochasticity .......................................................................... 19
Figure 16: The mean total population with added stochasticity ................................................... 19
Figure 17: Black bear harvesting and population data chart in NJ ............................................... 21

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I. Introduction
I. 1. Species Description and Taxonomy
The American black bear (Ursus americanus) is the largest land mammal in New Jersey,
at 5 to 7 feet tall when stood upright, and can weigh anywhere between 200 to 600 pounds. Black
bears are omnivorous, and their diet can include other mammals, fish, insects, berries, roots, and
more, shifting depending on what is available with the season. Despite its common descriptive
name, the black bear is not always black. They can often be spotted with a brown, gray, or even
white coat, although the white coloration is considerably rarer in nature (National Geographic).

Ursus americanus is not related to the brown bear (Ursus arctos) despite their similarities
in coat color (Krause et al.). The brown bears are notably more significant with extended claws
and a more pronounced shoulder hump. The claws of the black bear, short and curved, are
specialized for tree climbing and clawing through rigid objects, like logs and dead trees. The
sharp, curved claw allows for greater traction when climbing trees and gets them to insects faster
("Black Bear Biology & Behavior"). Ursus americanus are generally most active during dusk
and dawn and rest at night, though they can become nocturnal in habitats very nearby to humans
in order to avoid confrontation (Pennsylvania Game Commission).

Figure 1: A phylogenetic tree of family Ursidae showing divergence times in millions of years on the scale. Adapted from Puckett
et al.

The American black bear exists only in Canada, the United States, and Mexico. There are
established populations on islands off the west coast of Alaska and British Columbia. Ursus
americanus occupies a total range of 10.5 million km2, predominantly covering forests,
grasslands, shrubs, and wetlands (Garshelis et al.).

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I. 2. Life History and Ecology
Though the actual life expectancy of Ursus americanus is not widely agreed upon, most
will die before reaching their mid 20's. Some, however, can survive in the wild for upwards of 30
years (Brown). In fact, the Minnesota Department of Natural Resources had radio-collared a 7-
year-old female American black bear in 1981, which would go on to live to the end of August of
2013, died of natural causes at 39 years of age ("World’s Oldest Wild Black Bear Dies...”).

Figure 2: No. 56, the female American black bear waking up in the woods of Northern Minnesota after a sedative. From the
Minnesota Department of Natural Resources.

The sow, or female black bear, will not begin copulation attempts until 3 to 5 years old.
During the breeding season, May through July, they will be pursued by boars, the male black
bears. Boars will compete with each other to establish dominance over sow territory and thus the
right to mate. The boars will begin following sows around, looking and smelling for signs that
they are ready to copulate, several days before they are receptive (“Courtship and Mating”).
After mating, the male and female will both go on to breed with different individuals, as they are
sexually promiscuous.

The embryo will not begin to develop in the sow until about November when she has
returned to the den for torpor, which is similar to hibernation (Boone et al.). Torpor is different,
however, because the organism will wake every few weeks to gather food. There are usually two

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or three cubs born during torpor. The new cubs will get all nutrients from the mother’s milk for
about the first seven months. At 16 months, the mother bear will be preparing to seek new mates
and will chase her cubs away to get space. This is also synchronized with local vegetation to
maximize resource availability. The mother will allow them on parts of her territory until they
reach maturity, around 3 years of age (NJDEP). There is no paternal care for offspring.

Figure 3: A diagram outlining the life cycle of the American black bear (Ursus Americana). Life stages are as follows: cub (0-1
year old), yearling (1-2 years old), sub-adult (~2-3 years old), adult (~4+ years old) from iSeeMammals.org.

When searching for a suitable den, Ursus americanus will search in rock cavities, hollow
trees, caves, or dig out their own into trees or the soil — they will use just about anything that
can offer shelter and safety (NJDEP). When the snow melts for the season, the bears will begin
emerging, typically in March. When they occur, the body masses will have decreased by about
20%. As a result, the first objective is to eat. They will search for fresh vegetation, berries,
carcasses of deer that did not survive the winter, and anything else they may find. Ursus
americanus plays a big role in cleaning the forest floor as a generalist species. They disperse
berry seeds, they break up logs to find insects, thus increasing the speed of decomposition, and
they help manage populations of prey like deer and salmon (Kronk).

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 American black bears are sexually dimorphic, and in this species, the males are much
larger than the females. The boar can be anywhere from 20-60% heavier than the sow
counterpart. The sow must birth and care for a cub during torpor when food supply is scarce.

I. 3. Population Status and Distribution

The American black bear is primarily distributed in the northernmost parts of Canada,
along the Northwestern and Northeastern shores of the United States, as well as further inland in
the Northwest. Their ability to successfully breed further north is thought to be a consequence of
climate change. Ursus americanus populates 12 Canadian provinces, at least 40 states in the US,
and six states in Mexico. There are an estimated 950,000 wild American black bears in North
America, and at least 300,000 are from the United States, excluding Alaska (IUCN). In New
Jersey, the population is estimated at 3.5 thousand bears. In the 1900s, the population was
subjected to overharvesting and habitat destruction and led to local extinctions in several
stretches of the black bear territory. The current range is approximated to be only 65-75% of the
original range the American black bear has historically populated (IUCN).

Figure 4: A population distribution map of the American black bear. Areas marked in red represent the latest known range of the
species. Adapted from the International Union for Conservation of Nature and Natural Resources.

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 The general trend of the American black bear population is increasing. In New Jersey,
there are annual hunting seasons in place to effectively manage the population. The length of the
season or number of regulations varies on a yearly basis in order to respond to growth trends in
the black bear population.

I. 4. Threats
Though Ursus americanus is placed on the IUCN Red List under ‘Least Concern,’ there
are still threats to the species which are cause for concern. One of the greatest threats to the
American black bear is habitat fragmentation and deforestation. As the human population
continues to rise, more and more woodlands and other bear habitats continue to be encroached
upon. Less space to graze for food after a cold winter could be the difference between life or
death for many bears. There is also the additional risk that the American black bear can become a
nuisance in the neighborhood or a severe threat to residents and their pets with repeated exposure
to humans.

With the construction of roads often comes the destruction of habitat, dividing it in half,
causing many animals to attempt crossing busy roads, which tends to prove fatal for both bears
and humans. Yosemite National Park has signs along the roadways that read “SPEEDING
KILLS BEARS.” An experiment performed on grizzly bears (Ursus arctos horribilis) suggested
that road closures in
suburban areas lead to
increased population
density (Lamb, Mowat, et
al.). While this may not
entirely represent the
American black bear, it is
most likely the case
because both species face
the same threat of habitat
restriction from humans. Figure 5: A hotspot map of vehicle motor accidents involving bears in Yosemite National
Park, California. Light shades of orange suggest low incidence reports while dark
This issue is a combination orange indicates high incidence locations. Image credit to Keep Bears Wild

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of habitat fragmentation from manmade structures and human error. There is little concern for
the species outside of human-influenced factors, meaning that in order to continue growing and
eventually stabilize, human influence should be virtually absent, save for occasional population
management via hunting as necessary.

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II. Current Conservation and Management Efforts
II. 1. Current Regulation
As early as 1953, black bears were designated as game animals by the New Jersey Fish
and Game Commission and offered limited hunting seasons in the state from 1958 to 1970 under
legislatively mandated protection (NJDEP bear.). And the Department of Fish and Wildlife
(DFW) kept specific counts of black bears hunted during these seasons. After some analysis and
extrapolation of these data, DFW concluded that the state’s black bear population was sufficient
for both regular and periodic hunting seasons (Carr, P 2011). In 2007, the New Jersey Supreme
Court issued an updated policy agreeing to a regular hunting season for DFW. DFW was given
additional authority to control and protect the state’s bear population. It is not limited to training
rangers and police officers to assist researchers in managing bears.

We know that black bears are wild

animals and, like humans, are gradually
taking over the bears’ original habitat. These
excessive interactions between human and
bear habitats can lead to ecological traps that
cause bears to visit human habitats more
frequently. This has led to more complaints
and grievances about bears, such as bear
damage to residential property and even
threats to local human life. DFW has had to
train some personnel to mitigate human-bear
conflicts (Raithel, J 2018). The DFW-
approved bear hunting season has also helped
to control the bear population. The hunting
season keeps the bear population at a
relatively stable level. This does not result in Figure 6: A photo of a NJ hunting licenses
excessive variation in bear numbers. Also, to

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ensure that population control is effective DFW trained researchers are controlling and tracking
the fertility of some captured bears.

In 2007, DFW adopted the Comprehensive Black Bear Management Policy (CBBMP).
This provision gives New Jersey 17 days per year to legally hunt black bears (NJDEP 2018).
DFW will protect and control these species in several ways. These provisions are: “protecting
and enhancing the quality of their habitat; educating people about the value and needs of our fish
and wildlife and promoting human-wildlife coexistence, and maximizing the recreational and
commercial use of New Jersey’s fish and wildlife to meet demand. (NJDEP 2018)” DFW will
also manage and document complaints from people about black bears. DFW has marked four
different ecological reserves in New Jersey to track black bear populations to ensure that
population control is effective. All four zones have small numbers of bears bordering human
habitat. In June 2021, the CBBMP rule expires, making it so that there will no longer be any
legal hunting seasons starting this year. This will lead to further analysis of black bear
conservation practices and the development of conservation measures to meet current conditions.

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II. 2. Habitat Conservation - Bear Management Zones (BMZ)

Figure 8: The Bear Management Zones in NJ Figure 7: The Green Acre in NJ

The zoning of bears is the best option in DFW’s view. DFW researchers analyzed New
Jersey’s forest cover and land conditions and divided the state into seven different zones. These
zones are called Bear Management Zones (BMZs) (NJDEP 2021)(NJDEP 2018). When ranked
by forest cover to human activity ratio, BMZs 1 and 3 have the best balance. If we compare the
images in Figure 7 and Figure 8, we see that Areas 1 and 3 are located in northern New Jersey
and have the best forest and wetland cover in the north part of the state. At the same time, human
activity is lower in this area compared to other areas(Carr, P. C. 2003). These advantages have
led DFW researchers to focus on Areas 1 and 3 to study the impact of bear hunting seasons on
bear survival rates. In addition, statistics show that bear populations are higher in Areas 1 and 3
compared to other areas. This is evidence that areas 1 and 3 are indeed the optimal areas. Zones
2, 4, and 5 have relatively good forest cover, but not as much as Zones 1 and 3, so they are
classified as second class (Huffman 2010). For zone 6, zone 6 is in an area of intensive human
activity and has a low forest cover. Not only that, according to the sequential distribution chart
listed in Figure 9, we can see that the proportion of bears found in Zone 6 from 1994 to 2014 is
the lowest. So, DFW classifies zone 6 as a third-class zone. Zone 7 is an up-and-coming zone.

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Bears were not found in this area until after 2004(NJDEP 2018). Also, according to the forest
cover shown in Figure 7, Zone 7 has relatively high forest resources, but since bear numbers are
still increasing, Zone 7 would be a promising newcomer to Class 2 or Class 1.

Figure 9: The Bear distribution developing situation in NJ since 1995

II. 3. Public Outreach and Education

Due to urbanization, humans are gradually occupying areas where bears can survive. At
the same time, this has led to more contact between bears and humans. There is no shortage of
news of bears entering neighborhoods at night to rummage through garbage cans and of bears
destroying farm crops as well as animals. These actions have resulted in property damage to
people. Not only that, but too close contact with bears can cause bears to become fearful and in
turn, attack people. This is why it is so important to educate people about black bears.

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 According to DFW, DFW has spent $9 million on bear management since the fiscal year
2001(NJDEP 2021). Have these funds been well spent? The answer is yes. The in-state bear
population is continuing to increase under DFW’s management. And the number of calls and
complaints from the public about bears is decreasing. There has only been one fatal predatory
bear attack in the state since records began, resulting in the death of one man.

On the NJDFW website, we can find many facts about black bears, including education
for children. In the decade from 2007 to 2017, DFW has invested a total of $1.5 million in
promoting and distributing these resources (NJDEP 2021). It also holds annual educational
seminars and exhibits on bears, reaching an average of 14,000 people per year. DFW also
responds to potential daily bear attacks by training professionals to give guidance to people
living in bear-prone areas on how to follow the bear waste management guidelines. The statistics
on compliance with the black bear waste management guidelines show that most residents are
complying with the regulations (NJDEP 2021). This is side evidence that the black bear
education efforts are practical. In these ways, people can learn more about black bears and how
to better live with bears in this urbanized development.

II. 4. Population Viability Analysis.

Data from 2010 to 2017 in the population viability analysis (PVA) were obtained from
the Status Report on the Implementation of the 2015 CBBMP published by NJDFW in 2018
(NJDEP 2018). Figure 10 is the PVA data. Although the data includes data from 2003 and 2005,
we did not include these two data. This is because the data between 2003 and 2010 are not
continuous, and six years of data are missing (Carr, P 2011). Also, these data use the Lincoln-
Petersen method to predict the data so that it will not be completely accurate as it should be in
real life. After adding random numbers and simulating for the next ten years, the graphs are
shown in figure 11. None of the experimental results indicate that the bears will be extinct within
ten years. This also suggests that the population of bears collected for this data will continue to
increase.

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 Figure 10: The PVA data for black bear in NJ

Figure 11: Decadal black bear population simulations after the inclusion of stochastic values

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III. Conservation and Management Plan
III. 1. Pre-Management Models matrices analysis
III. 1. I Stage Structure Matrix models
From the data published on the DFW website, we obtained the survival probability and
reproduction rate of black bears. With the age data we received, we classified American black
bears into five age groups, cubs (0 to 1 year old), cubs (1 to 2 years old), subadults (2 to 4 years
old), adults (4 to 13 years old), and old adults (13 years old and older.) Figure 12 shows the five-
stage matrix model data for American black bears from the reproductive as well as survival rate
calculations we obtained. After calculating these data and waiting for the λ values to stabilize, we
can see that the bear population is growing with a λ value of 1.27. After the λ values stabilize,
cubs have the most significant proportion of all age groups at 37%. This is closely followed by
the cub group with a proportion of 22%. The lowest proportion of these groups was in the adult
group, with 8%. In the absence of external influences, the wild bear population would remain
elevated. As can be seen in Figure 13, the bear population remains at a steady level of growth.
This growth is not promising. Without human control, the bear population will continue to grow.

Figure 12: The five-stage matrix model of the American Black Bear, Where C
represent Cub, Yl represent Yearling, Sa represent Sub-adult, a represent Adult,
and Oa represent Old-adult

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 Figure 13: The projection of population size of bear in 100 years

III. 1. II Sensitivity and Elasticity Matrices

After categorizing and calculating the data, we obtained the matrix data plot shown in
figure 14. From the analysis in the reproductive value vector, it is known that the maximum
degree of change is from pups to yearling, but only about 0.07 in advance in the next stage. in
contrast, there is no such multiplicative effect in other stages. In figure 14, the elasticity analysis
estimates the impact of proportional changes in the population growth rate on population growth.
From the results of the analysis, we can see that the survival rate of one-year-old pups has the
largest proportion of all values. Therefore, protecting the adults' survival rate is critical in this
analysis. A 1% increase in pup survival would increase λ by 0.20%. Therefore, with the two tests
above, we can conclude that the survival of American black bears can be maximized by
protecting the survival rate of individuals under one year of age. On this basis, this result can be
achieved by giving more protection to individuals under two years of age (cubs and individuals
under one year of age).

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 Figure 14: The sensitivity matrix and elasticity matrix for black bear

III. 1. III. Stochastic Matrix Models

After a random data matrix analysis, we still get the result that the black bear population
will continue to be upward. In figure 15, we can see that λ will stabilize when it reaches about
1.2. Also, in figure 16, the data show that in 20 years, the population in the state could reach
100,000 bears. This is similar to the results of the PVA analysis, but with a more aggressive
growth trend than the PVA analysis.

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 Figure 15: The mean λ with added stochasticity

Figure 16: The mean total population with added stochasticity

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III. 2. Conservation strategy
Using our analysis of the data, we see that after simulating the state’s black bear
population, we see that the λ value will be between 1.1 and 1.2. At that time, the state’s black
bear population will be in a constant state of increase. After the CMBBP regulations expire in
2021, the bear hunting season will cease. The absence of any hunting will lead to a rise in the
bear population. So we need to come up with a way to stop the uncontrolled growth of the bear
population in the state as soon as possible.

We have noticed that in areas bordering human settlements, especially those with high
human activity, bears tend to look for food in garbage cans near human houses when food is
scarce. This has resulted in many reports of bear harassment. The bears are also at increased risk
of crossing roads and being killed in traffic accidents due to their proximity to human
settlements. This is the highest percentage of unnatural deaths of bears in the state (Raithel, J. D
2018). Also, cubs have the highest percentage of these accidents. This is an issue that we will
begin to manage.

As the bear population continues to grow, it will eventually reach the maximum carrying
capacity of the environment in some future year. At the same time, too many bears as predators
may have some impact on other animals in the state. Researchers in the state will need to be
aware of these issues and start working on them.

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 Figure 17: Black bear harvesting and population data chart in NJ

We believe that the most critical point in the future of bear management is to suppress the
population and keep this population at a healthy level. So first, we need to restore the annual
hunting season. After we analyzed the total harvest data published by DFW from 2010 to 2017,
we processed the graphs in figure 17. In this graph, the population size is the data derived by
DFW using the Lincoln-Petersen approach, and the total harvest number is the total number of
hunts per year given by DFW. We can see that after the state’s simulated black bear population
peaked in 2014, the state’s population was successfully contained through nearly 3 years of
above-average hunting totals. This would suggest that it is possible to control the state’s black
bear population through hunting.

Next, the state’s garbage management. For the areas of the BMZ with the highest bear
population habitability, such as Areas 1 and 3, the government should introduce more stringent
garbage management measures. Make it mandatory for residents to go out and purchase bear-
proof garbage cans and other garbage management methods. This would keep bears as far away

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from human-populated areas as possible during low food seasons. This would not only reduce
the chances of bears being involved in traffic accidents but would also reduce the number of calls
about bears invading private property. Reduce the workload of DFW-trained staff. And even
reduce financial expenditures.

Finally, the state can continue to add more wildlife refuges for black bears and other
wildlife. By creating these wildlife reserves, the bears can be further removed from human
habitat. Not only that, but the development of these wildlife reserves could also increase the
state's wildlife population, which would benefit more than just the bears. The government could
also open up a small portion of these reserves to the public, which could also raise some revenue.

Additionally, we have a premature suggestion for control. This proposal may involve
sensitive issues, and some animal protection groups may object to this approach. For the analysis
of the age of the bear population size, we concluded that juvenile bears (less than 3 years old)
have the greatest impact on the total bear population size. If we encounter a year with an
overpopulation of bears, we could encourage hunters to conduct a more stressful hunt for
juvenile bears during the year’s 17-day hunting season. Researchers will need to track and
analyze data from this particular season to see if this approach is better at controlling excess bear
populations.

III. 3. Conclusion
Due to rapid urbanization, people will face problems in the future that will ensue. The
trend of black bear population in New Jersey in the last decade is still manageable. It is necessary
to manage the relationship between people and bears and other wildlife. Black bears are not in
any danger of becoming endangered, but they still need our protection and management.
Different aspects of their survival can be mitigated. It would also be very helpful to increase
public awareness of the bears. We still need more research to face the difficulties that may occur
next.

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