ACTED062

STATISTICAL ANALYSIS
Discrete WITH SOFTWARE
APPLICATION
Probability
Distributions
Prepared By
Cynthia SM Jacob
School of Business, Management, and
Accountancy
Types of Probability Distribution
A probability distribution is a table or function that helps us determine or
compute the probability associated with each value of the random variable.
1. Discrete probability distribution - one that involves a discrete random variable.
– Example: Poisson Distribution (x is the no. of arrivals per time period)

2. Continuous probability distribution - one that involves a continuous random

variable.
– Example: Exponential Distribution

Discrete Probability Distributions

Discrete Probability Distribution:
Cumulative Distribution Function (cdf)
• a table or a function that determines the probability that the random variable
X takes on values that are less than or equal to a specific value x
• denoted by:
∑ $
𝐹 𝑥 = 𝑃 𝑋 ≤ 𝑥 = !"# 𝑓(𝑥)

where: L = lower limit of possible x values

Discrete Probability Distributions

Cumulative Distribution Function: Example
In the random experiment of tossing a coin three times and counting the number of
heads in the outcome:
3
x f(x) F(x) 𝑓 2 =
8
0 1/8 1/8

1 3/8 4/8
$
2 3/8 7/8 𝐹 2 =𝑃 𝑋≤2 = *𝑓 𝑋
!"#
3 1/8 1
= 𝑓 0 + 𝑓 1 + 𝑓(2)
% ' '
= &+&+&
(
=&

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Discrete Probability Distributions

Discrete Uniform Distribution

Binomial Distribution
Hypergeometric Distribution
Poisson Distribution
Discrete Probability Distributions
 Discrete Uniform Distribution

If all the discrete values of the random variable 𝑿 have an equal chance of
occurring, 𝑿 is said to be discrete uniform with probability mass function (pmf):
𝟏
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 =
𝒏
where 𝒏 is the number of possible values of X
and with: ∑𝒏
𝒊"𝟏 𝒙𝒊
𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) = (mean)
𝒏

𝟐 ∑𝒏 (𝒙
𝒊"𝟏 𝒊 *𝝁) 𝟐
𝝈 = 𝑽(𝑿) = (variance)
𝒏

It is a probability distribution where all outcomes are equally likely.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Discrete Uniform Distribution: Examples

Example 1 :
Let X represent a random variable taking on the possible values of 0, 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 ,6, 7, 8,
9, and each of these values has equal probability. Then X is discrete uniformly
distributed and the probability associated with each of the values is:
1
𝑃 𝑋 = 𝑥- = 𝑓 𝑥- = = 0.10
10

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Discrete Uniform Distribution: Examples

Example 2. Let X be a number selected at random from the set of numbers

{51, 52, … , 100}. Find the mean and the variance of X.
X is a discrete uniform random variable with pmf:
𝟏
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = 𝒇𝒐𝒓 𝒙 = 𝟓𝟏, 𝟓𝟐, … , 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝟓𝟎
𝟓𝟏 + 𝟓𝟐 + 𝟓𝟑 + ⋯ + 𝟗𝟖 + 𝟗𝟗 + 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝝁=𝑬 𝑿 = = 𝟕𝟓. 𝟓
𝟓𝟎
𝟓𝟏 − 𝟕𝟓. 𝟓 𝟐 + 𝟓𝟐 − 𝟕𝟓. 𝟓 𝟐 + ⋯ + 𝟏𝟎𝟎 − 𝟕𝟓. 𝟓 𝟐
𝝈𝟐 = 𝑽 𝑿 = = 𝟐𝟎𝟖. 𝟐𝟓
𝟓𝟎

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercises

What is the probability distribution of tossing a die?

It is discrete uniformly distributed with pmf:
f(x) = P(X=x) = 1/6 for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercises
An employee is selected from a staff of 10 to supervise a certain project by selecting
a tag at random from a box containing 10 tags numbered from 1 to 10.
a. Find the probability distribution of X representing the number on the tag that is
drawn.
1
X is uniformly distributed with pmf f x = for x = 1, 2, 3, … , 10.
12
b. What is the probability that the number drawn is less than 4?
1
P X<4 =f 1 +f 2 +f 3 =3 = 0.3
12
c. Find the mean and variance of X
1
The mean of X is µ = 1+ 2 + ⋯ + 10 = 5.5
12
3 1 3 3 3
The variance of X is σ = 1 − 5.5 + 2 − 5.5 + ⋯ + 10 − 5.5 = 8.25
12

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution

Properties of a binomial experiment:

1. The experiment consists of a sequence of n identical trials.
2. Two outcomes are possible on each trial. One outcome is
referred to as a success, the other outcome as a failure.
3. The probability of a success, denoted by p, remains constant
from trial to trial. The probability of a failure is denoted by q,
where q = 1 – p.
4. The trials are independent.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 The binomial random variable
Suppose there are n independent trials in an experiment, each having probability p
for a “success” to occur and probability 1 − p for a “failure” to occur. Let X count
the number of “successes” in all the trials. X is said to be binomial with pmf:
𝒏 𝒙 𝒏*𝒙
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = 𝒑 (𝟏 − 𝒑) , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝒏
𝒙
and with:
𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝒏𝒑

𝝈𝟐 = 𝑽(𝑿) = 𝒏𝒑(𝟏 − 𝒑)

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Example
Suppose a census reveals that approximately 6% of all workers in a town are
unemployed. In conducting a random telephone survey in the town,
a. what is the probability of getting two unemployed workers in a sample of 20?
X - number of unemployed workers in the town
X~Bin(n = 20; p = 0.06)
P(X=x) = nCx (0.06x)(0.94n-x), for x = 0, 1,2 , …, 20
P(X = 2) = 20C2 (0.06)2 (0.94)18 ≈ 0.2246
b. What is the expected number of unemployed workers?
E(x) = np = (20)(.06) = 1.2
c. What is the variance of x?
σ2 = np(1 – p) = (1.2)(0.94) = 1.128

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Example
Two lighting systems are being proposed for an employee work area. One requires fifty bulbs, each having a
probability 0.05 of burning out within a month’s time. The second has one hundred bulbs, each with a 0.02
burnout probability. Whichever system is installed will be inspected once a month for the purpose of replacing
burned-out bulbs. If we compare the probabilities that each will require at least one bulb to be replaced each
month, which system is more likely to require less maintenance?
A and B are binomial random variables counting the number of burned-out light bulbs in each system.
A~Bin n = 50, p = 0.05 and B~Bin(n = 100, p = 0.02)

𝟓𝟎
𝑷 𝑨=𝒂 = (𝟎. 𝟎𝟓)𝒂 (𝟎. 𝟗𝟓)𝟓𝟎$𝒂 , 𝒊𝒇 𝒂 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝟓𝟎
𝒂

𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝑷 𝑩=𝒃 = (𝟎. 𝟎𝟐)𝒃 (𝟎. 𝟗𝟖)𝟏𝟎𝟎$𝒃 , 𝒊𝒇 𝒃 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝟏𝟎𝟎
𝒃

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Example
Two lighting systems are being proposed for an employee work area. One requires fifty bulbs, each having a
probability 0.05 of burning out within a month’s time. The second has one hundred bulbs, each with a 0.02
burnout probability. Whichever system is installed will be inspected once a month for the purpose of replacing
burned-out bulbs. If we compare the probabilities that each will require at least one bulb to be replaced each
month, which system is more likely to require less maintenance?
A and B are binomial random variables counting the number of burned-out light bulbs in each system.
A~Bin n = 50, p = 0.05 and B~Bin(n = 100, p = 0.02)
𝟓𝟎 𝟎 𝟓𝟎$𝟎
𝑷 𝑨≥𝟏 =𝟏−𝑷 𝑨=𝟎 =𝟏− 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓 ≈ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟐𝟑𝟏
𝟎

𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎$𝟎
𝑷 𝑩≥𝟏 =𝟏−𝑷 𝑩=𝟎 =𝟏− 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐 𝟎. 𝟗𝟖 ≈ 𝟎. 𝟖𝟔𝟕𝟒
𝟎

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Example
Two lighting systems are being proposed for an employee work area. One requires fifty bulbs, each having a
probability 0.05 of burning out within a month’s time. The second has one hundred bulbs, each with a 0.02
burnout probability. Whichever system is installed will be inspected once a month for the purpose of replacing
burned-out bulbs. If we compare the probabilities that each will require at least one bulb to be replaced each
month, which system is more likely to require less maintenance?
A and B are binomial random variables counting the number of burned-out light bulbs in each system.
A~Bin n = 50, p = 0.05 and B~Bin(n = 100, p = 0.02)
𝟓𝟎 𝟎 𝟓𝟎$𝟎
𝑷 𝑨≥𝟏 =𝟏−𝑷 𝑨=𝟎 =𝟏− 𝟎. 𝟎𝟓 𝟎. 𝟗𝟓 ≈ 𝟎. 𝟗𝟐𝟑𝟏
𝟎

𝟏𝟎𝟎 𝟎 𝟏𝟎𝟎$𝟎
𝑷 𝑩≥𝟏 =𝟏−𝑷 𝑩=𝟎 =𝟏− 𝟎. 𝟎𝟐 𝟎. 𝟗𝟖 ≈ 𝟎. 𝟖𝟔𝟕𝟒
𝟎

→ The second system requires less maintenance than the first.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Examples
The probability that a certain kind of component will survive a shock test is 3/4. Find the
probability that exactly 2 of the next4 components tested survive.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Examples
The probability that a patient recovers from a rare blood disease is 0.4. If 15 people
are known to have contracted this disease, what is the probability that:
a. at least 10 survive;
b. from 3 to 8 survive; and
c. exactly 5 survive?

Find the mean and variance

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Distribution: Examples
A large chain retailer purchases a certain kind of electronic device from a
manufacturer. The manufacturer indicates that the defective rate of the device is
3%. The inspector of the retailer randomly picks 20 items from a shipment.

What is the probability that there will be at least one defective item among these 20?

Suppose that the retailer receives 10 shipments in a month and the inspector
randomly tests 20 devices per shipment. What is the probability that there will
be 3 shipments containing at least one defective device?

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Hypergeometric Distribution
Characteristics
1. A random sample of size n is selected from N items.
2. The N items may be subdivided into two groups, k of the items are classified as
successes. Thus, N – k of the items are considered failures. The choice of
successes is arbitrary.
3. Sampling is done without replacement.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 The hypergeometric random variable
Suppose there are 𝑵 items in which 𝒌 of them are “successes”. Suppose also that we select
𝒏 items, without replacement, from the 𝑵. Let 𝑿 count the number of “successes” in the
selected 𝒏 items. 𝑿 is said to be hypergeometric with pmf:
𝒌 𝑵$𝒌
𝒙 𝒏$𝒙
𝑥 is chosen from the 𝑘 successes 𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = 𝑵
, 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝒏
𝒏
all the possible 𝑛 items from 𝑁
and with:
𝒌
𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝒏
𝑵
𝟐
𝒌 𝒌 𝑵−𝒏
𝝈 = 𝑽(𝑿) = 𝒏 𝟏−
𝑵 𝑵 𝑵−𝟏

X is a hypergeometric random variable with parameters N, k, and n.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Hypergeometric Distribution: Example
A random committee of size 3 is selected from 4 doctors and 2 nurses.
a. Write a formula for the probability distribution of the random variable X representing the number
of doctors on the committee.
X~Hyp N = 6, k = 4, n = 3 with pmf
' )
( *$(
𝑓 𝑥 = + 𝑓𝑜𝑟 𝑥 = 1, 2, 3
*

b. Find P 2 ≤ X ≤ 3 .

𝑃 2 ≤ 𝑋 ≤ 3 = 𝑓 2 + 𝑓(3)
! " ! "
% &
= "
$
#
+ $ = 0.8
% %

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Hypergeometric Distribution: Example
A city has 4050 children under the age of ten, including 514 who have not been vaccinated for measles. Sixty-
five of the city’s children are enrolled in the ABC Day Care Center. Suppose the municipal health department
sends a doctor and a nurse to ABC to immunize any child who has not already been vaccinated.
a. Find a formula for the probability that exactly x of the children at ABC have not been vaccinated.
b. Use this formula to determine the probability that 10 of the children in ABC have not been vaccinated.

a. Let 𝑋 - the number of unvaccinated children in the ABC Day Care Center
𝑋~𝐻𝑦𝑝 𝑁 = 4050, 𝑘 = 514, 𝑛 = 65 with pmf
'#! %'%$
( $')(
𝑓 𝑥 = !&'& for 𝑥 = 0,1, 2, 3, ⋯ , 65
$'

'#! %'%$
#& ''
b. 𝑓 10 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 10 = !&'& ≈ 0.1119
$'

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Hypergeometric Distribution: Example
Every hour, 10 000 cans of soda are filled by a machine, among which 300 underfilled cans are
produced. Each hour, a sample of 30 cans is randomly selected, and the number of ounces of
soda per can is checked. Denote by 𝑿 the number of cans selected that are underfilled. Find
the probability that at least one underfilled can will be among those sampled.

𝑋~𝐻𝑦𝑝(𝑁 = 10000, 𝑘 = 300, 𝑛 = 30)

𝑃 𝑋 ≥1 =1−𝑃 𝑋 =0
%&& *+&&
& %&
=1− #&&&&
%&
≈ 0.5995

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Hypergeometric Distribution: Example
Lots of 40 components each are called unacceptable if they contain as many as 3 defectives or
more. The procedure for sampling the lot is to select 5 components at random and to reject the
lot if a defective is found.
a. What is the probability that exactly 1 defective is found in the sample if there are 3 defectives
in the entire lot?

b. Find the mean and variance.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Hypergeometric Distribution: Example
A manufacturer of car tires reports that among a shipment of 5000 sent to a local distributor,
1000 are slightly blemished. If one purchases 10 of these tires at random from the distributor:
a. What is the probability that exactly 3 are blemished?

b. What is the probability that at most 5 are blemished?

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Approximation to the
Hypergeometric Distribution
Cases where the binomial distribution can approximate the hypergeometric distribution
1. when N is not given (but assumed to be a large value)
2. N is given as a very large value

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Approximation to the Hypergeometric
Distribution: Example
A manufacturer of automobile tires reports that among a shipment of 5000 sent to a local
distributor, 1000 are slightly blemished. If one purchases 10 of these tires at random from the
distributor, what is the probability that exactly 3 are blemished? Use binomial approximation.

Since n/N = 10/5000 = 0.002, the binomial approximation to the hypergeometric distribution
is valid.
Let X – number of blemished tires selected
X ∼ 𝐵𝑖𝑛(𝑛 = 10, 𝑝 ≈ 1000/5000 = 0.20)
10
𝑓 3 =𝑃 𝑋=3 = (0.20* )(0.80, ) ≈ 0.2013
3

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Approximation to the Hypergeometric
Distribution: Example
A city has 4050 children under the age of ten, including 514 who have not been
vaccinated for measles. Sixty-five of the city’s children are enrolled in the ABC Day Care
Center. Suppose the municipal health department sends a doctor and a nurse to ABC
to immunize any child who has not already been vaccinated. Use the binomial
distribution to approximate the probability that 10 of the children in ABC have not been
vaccinated.
Let X - the number of unvaccinated children in the ABC
Day Care Center
X~Bin n = 65, p ≈ 514/4050
𝑓 10 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 10
-. //
65 514 3536
= ≈ 0.1112
10 4050 4050

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Binomial Approximation to the Hypergeometric
Distribution: Example
A city has 4050 children under the age of ten, including 514 who have not been
vaccinated for measles. Sixty-five of the city’s children are enrolled in the ABC Day Care
Center. Suppose the municipal health department sends a doctor and a nurse to ABC
to immunize any child who has not already been vaccinated. Use the binomial
distribution to approximate the probability that 10 of the children in ABC have not been
vaccinated.
Let X - the number of unvaccinated children in the ABC
Day Care Center
X~Bin n = 65, p ≈ 514/4050
𝑓 10 = 𝑃 𝑋 = 10
-. //
65 514 3536
= ≈ 0.1112
10 4050 4050

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Distribution and the Poisson Random
Variable
Suppose the number of outcomes occurring in one interval or region of space is independent of
that in others. Suppose also that the probability of a single outcome occurring is the same for any
two intervals or regions of equal length. Let 𝑿 count the number of instances that will occur in a
specified interval or region 𝒕, with an average of 𝝀 outcomes per unit of time or region. 𝑿 is said
to be Poisson-distributed with pmf:
𝒆$𝝀𝒕 (𝝀𝒕)𝒙
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …
𝒙!

and with:
𝝁 = 𝑬(𝑿) = 𝝀𝒕 𝝈𝟐 = 𝑽(𝑿) = 𝝀𝒕
where
𝒆 = 𝟐. 𝟕𝟏𝟖𝟐𝟖 …

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Distribution and the Poisson Random
Variable
The Poisson pmf
𝒆$𝝀𝒕 (𝝀𝒕)𝒙
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …
𝒙!

is the limit of the binomial pmf

𝒏 𝒙
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = 𝒑 (𝟏 − 𝒑)𝒏*𝒙 , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, … , 𝒏
𝒙
as the number of trials n → ∞ and success probability p → 0.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Distribution: Example

In a new fiber-optic communication system, transmission errors occur at the rate of 1.5 per ten
seconds. What is the probability that exactly three errors will occur during the next half-
minute?

Let 𝑿 be the the Poisson random variable that counts the transmission errors in the next 30
𝟏.𝟓
seconds. 𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒐𝒏 𝝀𝒕 = ∗ 𝟑𝟎 = 𝟒. 𝟓
𝟏𝟎

𝒆$𝟒.𝟓 (𝟒. 𝟓)𝒙

𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …
𝒙!

𝒆$𝟒.𝟓 (𝟒. 𝟓)𝟑

𝒑𝑿 𝟑 = ≈ 𝟎. 𝟏𝟔𝟖𝟕
𝟑!

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Distribution: Example
Flaws in metal sheeting produced by a high-temperature roller occur at the rate of one per ten
square feet. What is the probability that three or more flaws will appear in a five-by-eight-foot
panel?

Let 𝑿 be the the Poisson random variable that counts the flaws in a five-by-eight-foot panel.
𝟏
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒐𝒏 𝝀𝒕 = ∗ 𝟒𝟎 = 𝟒
𝟏𝟎

𝒆$𝟒 (𝟒)𝒙
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …
𝒙!
𝟐
𝒆$𝟒 𝟒 𝒙
𝑷 𝑿≥𝟑 =𝟏−𝑷 𝑿<𝟑 =𝟏−q ≈ 𝟎. 𝟕𝟔𝟏𝟗
𝒙!
𝒙8𝟎

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Distribution: Example
During a laboratory experiment the average number of radioactive particles passing through a
counter in 1 millisecond is 4. What is the probability that 6 particles enter the counter in a given
millisecond?

Let X – the number of particles passing through the counter in 1 millisecond

4
𝑋~𝑃𝑜𝑖𝑠𝑠𝑜𝑛 𝜆𝑡 = ∗ 1 = 4
1
𝑒 $' 4 +
𝑓 6 =𝑃 𝑋=6 = ≈ 0.1042
6!

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Since

𝒆$𝝀𝒕 (𝝀𝒕)𝒌
𝒑𝑿 𝒌 = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒌 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …
𝒌!

is the limit of the binomial pmf as 𝒏 → ∞ and success probability 𝒑 → 𝟎, the Poisson
distribution can be used to approximate a binomial distribution when 𝒏 is very large and 𝒑 is
very small.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution

Suppose 𝑿 is a binomial random variable with sample size 𝒏 and “success” probability 𝒑. If 𝒏 ≥
𝟏𝟎𝟎 and 𝒑 < 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏, then 𝑿 is approximately Poisson-distributed with 𝝀 = 𝒏𝒑.

𝒆$𝒏𝒑 (𝒏𝒑)𝒙
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …
𝒙!

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution: Example

A chromosome mutation linked with colorblindness is known to occur, on the average, once in
every ten thousand births. Approximate the probability that exactly three of the next twenty
thousand babies born will have the mutation.
Let 𝑿 be the binomial random variable that counts the number of mutations in the next twenty
𝟏
thousand born babies. 𝑿~𝑩𝒊𝒏 𝒏 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎, 𝒑 =
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏
Since 𝒏 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 ≥ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 and 𝒑 = < 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏, 𝑿 is approximately Poisson.
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝟏
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒐𝒏 𝝀 = 𝒏𝒑 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎 ∗ =𝟐
𝟏𝟎𝟎𝟎𝟎
𝒆)𝟐 (𝟐)𝒙
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = , 𝒊𝒇 𝒙 = 𝟎, 𝟏, 𝟐, …
𝒙!

𝒆)𝟐 (𝟐)𝟑
𝒑𝑿 𝒙 = ≈ 𝟎. 𝟏𝟖𝟎𝟒
𝟑!

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Poisson Approximation to the Binomial Distribution: Example

A medical study recently documented that 905 mistakes were made among the 289,411
prescriptions written during one year at a large metropolitan teaching hospital. Suppose a
patient is admitted with a condition serious enough to warrant 200 prescriptions. Approximate
the probability that at least one will contain an error.

Let 𝑿 be the binomial random variable that counts erroneous prescriptions.

𝟗𝟎𝟓
𝑿~𝑩𝒊𝒏 𝒏 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎, 𝒑=
𝟐𝟖𝟗𝟒𝟏𝟏
𝟗𝟎𝟓
Since 𝒏 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎 ≥ 𝟏𝟎𝟎 and 𝒑 = < 𝟎. 𝟎𝟏, 𝑿 is approximately Poisson.
𝟐𝟖𝟗𝟒𝟏𝟏
𝟗𝟎𝟓
𝑿~𝑷𝒐𝒊𝒔𝒔𝒐𝒏 𝝀 = 𝒏𝒑 = 𝟐𝟎𝟎 ∗
𝟐𝟖𝟗𝟒𝟏𝟏
𝒆$𝝀 𝝀 𝟎
𝑷 𝑿≥𝟏 =𝟏−𝑷 𝑿=𝟎 =𝟏− ≈ 𝟎. 𝟒𝟔𝟓𝟎
𝟎!

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercise

1. In a certain industrial facility accidents occur infrequently. It is known that the probability of
an accident on any given day is 0.005 and accidents are independent of each other.
a. What is the probability that in any given 400-day period, an accident will occur in one day?
b. What is the probability that there are at most three days with an accident?
c. Using Poisson approximation, what are the approximate probabilities of each of the two
events above?

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercise
2. In a manufacturing process where glass products are produced, defects or bubbles occur,
occasionally rendering the piece undesirable for marketing. It is known that, on average, 1 in
every 1000 of these items produced has one or more bubbles.
a. What is the probability that a random sample of 8000 will yield fewer than 7 items
possessing bubbles?

b. Using Poisson approximation, what is the probability of the above event?

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercise

3. One prominent physician claims that 70% of those with lung cancer are chain smokers. If his
assertion is correct, find the probability that of 10 such patients recently admitted to a hospital,
few than half are chain smokers.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercise
4. To avoid detection at customs, a traveler places 6 narcotic tablets in a bottle containing 9
vitamin pills that are similar in appearance. If the customs official selects 3 of the tablets at
random for analysis, what is the probability that the traveler will be arrested for illegal
possession of narcotics.

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercise
5. It is estimated that 4000 of the 10000 voting residents of a town are against a new sales
tax. If 15 eligible voters are selected at random and asked for their opinion, what is the
probability that at most 7 favor the new tax?
a. Determine the exact probability
b. Determine the approximate probability

Discrete Probability Distributions

 Exercise

6. Suppose that, on the average, 1 person in 1000 makes a numerical error in preparing his
or her income tax return. If 10,000 forms are selected at random and examined, find the
probability that 6,7 or 8 of the forms contain an error.
a. Determine the exact probability.
b. Determine the approximate probability.

Discrete Probability Distributions