Ukraine-Russia Conflict
Study Guide
Compiled by : UETMUN Documentation Team
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UNSC
The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) is one of the six principal organs of the United
Nations (UN), charged with ensuring international peace and security, recommending the
admission of new UN members to the General Assembly, and approving any changes to the UN
Charter. Its powers include establishing peacekeeping operations, enacting international
sanctions, and authorizing military action. The UNSC is the only UN body with the authority to
issue binding resolutions on member states.
Like the UN as a whole, the Security Council was created after World War II to address the
failings of the League of Nations in maintaining world peace. It held its first session on 17
January 1946, and in the ensuing decades was largely paralyzed by the Cold War between the
United States and the Soviet Union and their respective allies. Nevertheless, it authorized
military interventions in the Korean War and the Congo Crisis and peacekeeping missions in
Cyprus, West New Guinea, and the Sinai Peninsula. With the collapse of the Soviet Union, UN
peacekeeping efforts increased dramatically in scale, with the Security Council authorizing
major military and peacekeeping missions in Kuwait, Namibia, Cambodia, Bosnia and
Herzegovina, Rwanda, Somalia, Sudan and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
The Security Council consists of fifteen members, of which five are permanent: the People's
Republic of China, the French Republic, the Russian Federation, the United Kingdom of Great
Britain and Northern Ireland, and the United States of America. These were the great powers,
or their successor states, that were the victors of World War II. Permanent members can veto
any substantive resolution, including those on the admission of new member states to the
United Nations or nominees for the office of Secretary-General. The remaining ten members
are elected on a regional basis to serve a term of two years. The body's presidency rotates
monthly among its members.
Resolutions of the Security Council are typically enforced by UN peacekeepers, military forces
voluntarily provided by member states and funded independently of the main UN budget. As of
March 2019, there are thirteen peacekeeping missions with over 81,000 personnel from 121
countries, with a total budget of nearly $6.7 billion.
Ukraine Conflict with Russia
Background
Ukraine has been governed by President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Servant of the People
party since 2019. During Zelensky’s presidency, Ukraine has enacted difficult economic and
governance reforms, albeit with some resistance and delays, and grappled with the social and
economic consequences of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic. Under
President Zelensky, Ukraine also has confronted Russia’s ongoing occupation of Ukraine’s
Crimea region and parts of eastern Ukraine. Zelensky has attempted to reinvigorate the conflict
resolution process with regard to Russia-occupied eastern Ukraine and has drawn greater
international attention to the situation in Ukraine’s occupied Crimea region. Russia, however,
appears no closer to implementing a permanent ceasefire or to withdrawing its military forces
from Ukraine.
Ukraine has undergone dramatic changes since the country’s 2013-2014 Revolution of Dignity
(also known as the Euromaidan Revolution). Forced to confront a Russian invasion and
occupation of Ukraine’s Crimea region, a Russian-led separatist conflict in eastern Ukraine, and
a tightening of Russian control in the nearby Sea of Azov and Black Sea, Ukraine has developed
a military capable of territorial defense, reversed a decline in economic growth, implemented
reforms, maintained a democratic path, and gained formal independence for the Orthodox
Church of Ukraine. 1 Ukraine continues to grapple with serious challenges. Since 2019, Ukraine
has been governed by President Volodymyr Zelensky and his Servant of the People party.
During Zelensky’s presidency, Ukraine has enacted difficult economic and governance reforms,
albeit with some resistance and delays, and grappled with the social and economic
consequences of the Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic.
President Zelensky also has attempted to reinvigorate the conflict resolution process with
regard to Russia-occupied eastern Ukraine and has drawn greater international attention to the
situation in Ukraine’s occupied Crimea region. Russia, however, appears no closer to
implementing a permanent ceasefire or to withdrawing its military forces from Ukraine. The
United States has long supported Ukraine’s independence, sovereignty, democratic trajectory,
and governance reforms. Since 2014, many Members of Congress have condemned Russia’s
invasion of Ukraine, promoted sanctions against Russia for its actions, and supported increased
economic and security aid to Ukraine. In 2019, U.S. relations with Ukraine became a prominent
issue in U.S. domestic affairs, as the House of Representatives agreed to articles of
impeachment related in part to alleged presidential actions regarding Ukraine; the Senate
acquitted President Trump of the charges in 2020.
Conflict with Russia
Many observers believe that of all the post-Soviet states, Ukraine’s independence has been the
most difficult for Russians to accept. Many Russians traditionally considered much of Ukraine to
be a historical province of Russia and Ukrainians to be close ethnic brethren. In July 2021,
Russian President Vladimir Putin published an essay expanding upon claims he has made before
regarding Ukraine’s ties to Russia and maintaining that Russians and Ukrainians are “one
people.” Most Ukrainians can speak Russian, whether as a primary or secondary language. In
Ukraine’s last national census (2001), 17% of the population identified as ethnic Russians,
mostly concentrated in the south (Crimea) and east, where ties to Russia are stronger than in
the rest of the country. In Soviet times, eastern Ukraine became home to a heavy industrial and
defense production sector that retained close economic ties to Russia after independence.
Before 2014, the Russia-Ukraine relationship occasionally suffered turbulence, with disputes
over Ukraine’s ties to NATO and the EU, the status of Russia’s Crimea-based Black Sea Fleet,
and the transit of Russian natural gas via Ukraine to Europe. By the end of 2013, ex-President
Yanukovych appeared to make a decisive move toward Russia, postponing an association
agreement to establish closer political and economic ties with the EU and agreeing instead to
substantial financial assistance from Moscow. This decision provoked the Euromaidan protests
and, ultimately, led to Yanukovych’s removal from power. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine occurred
soon after Yanukovych fled to Russia in February 2014. Russian government officials cast the
Revolution of Dignity as a Western-backed “coup” that, among other things, could threaten the
security of the ethnic Russian population in Ukraine’s Crimea region, could eject Russia’s Black
Sea Fleet from the region, and even could bring Ukraine into NATO. The Russian government
covertly deployed forces to Crimea and, after holding what most observers consider to have
been an illegal referendum, declared it was incorporating Crimea (with a population of about 2
million) directly into the Russian Federation. Moscow then engineered the rise of new
separatist movements in eastern Ukraine (the Donetsk and Luhansk regions, collectively known
as the Donbas, with a population of about 6.6 million in 2014). Militants forcibly took power in
several cities and towns, announced the establishment of two separatist entities (the so-called
Donetsk People’s Republic, or DPR, and Luhansk People’s Republic, or LPR), and gradually
expanded their control in the two regions. Ukrainian government and volunteer forces fought
back, restoring state control over a portion of each region but suffering some major defeats,
including in battles in which regular Russian forces reportedly participated. In 2019, one study
estimated that about half the pre-conflict population of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions (or
3.2 million people) were living under the control of Russian proxies. For Russia, the
establishment of separatist entities in eastern Ukraine may have served multiple purposes. The
Russian government claimed it was seeking to “protect” relatively pro-Russian populations in
these regions. Many observers believe that Moscow sought to complicate Ukraine’s domestic
development and foreign policy and to increase Russian leverage in potential negotiations over
Ukraine’s future trajectory. To date, the conflict has led to more than 10,000 combatant deaths
and almost 3,400 civilian fatalities. Ukraine has registered more than 1.4 million people as
internally displaced persons.
Ukrainian officials state that a few hundred Ukrainians remain in illegal detention in Russia
controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, occupied Crimea, or Russia. The conflict’s intensity has
declined since 2015, but sporadic fighting has continued. A July 2020 cease-fire led to a reduced
number of cease-fire violations and casualties for several months. A new round of hostilities
occurred in March 2021, as Russia amassed troops along its border with Ukraine and in
occupied Crimea. The size and sustained nature of Russian troop deployments greatly
concerned Ukrainian and Western governments.
Crimea
Since 2014, Russia has significantly increased its military presence in Crimea and suppressed
local dissent. Russia has deployed more than 30,000 armed personnel to Crimea. Russia’s
military forces in Crimea include ground, artillery, coastal defense, air defense, and fighter
units. Additionally, Russia has increased the size and capability of its Black Sea Fleet,
headquartered in Sevastopol. The Office of the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights
(OHCHR) has documented “multiple and grave” human rights violations in Crimea and said that
minority Crimean Tatars, who are generally opposed to Russia’s occupation, have been
“particularly targeted.” Russia reportedly has relocated more than 200,000 Russian nationals to
the occupied region. The Ukrainian government and state-owned companies have pursued
claims in international arbitration courts concerning the violation of their rights in Crimea and
in nearby maritime waters. Much of the international community does not recognize Russia’s
purported annexation of Crimea. Many have condemned Russia’s occupation as a violation of
international law and of Russia’s own international commitments. In particular, many consider
it to be a violation of the 1994 Budapest Memorandum, in which Russia, together with the
United States and the United Kingdom (UK), reaffirmed its commitment “to respect the
independence and sovereignty and the existing borders of Ukraine,” as well as the “obligation
to refrain from the threat or use of force against Ukraine. Since 2014, the U.N. General
Assembly has voted several times, most recently in 2020, to affirm Ukraine’s territorial
integrity, condemn the “temporary occupation” of Crimea, and reaffirm non-recognition of its
annexation.
Eastern Ukraine
In contrast to its policy toward Crimea, Moscow officially recognizes the areas it controls in
eastern Ukraine as Ukrainian territory. Although the Russian government continues to deny
military involvement in eastern Ukraine, U.S. officials have said that “Russia has 100 percent
command and control of what is happening in the occupied areas there—military forces,
political entities, and direct economic activity.” In May 2021, Ukrainian officials estimated that
almost 3,000 Russian military forces, mostly in command and control positions, were fighting in
eastern Ukraine, with the total number of Russia-led fighters estimated at more than 35,000. In
May 2021, Russian officials stated that Russia had granted citizenship to more than 525,000
residents of Russia-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine. Until the onset of the COVID-19
pandemic, residents were freely permitted to cross the approximately 300-mile long “contact
line” that divides the government- and Russia-controlled areas of Donetsk and Luhansk. In
2019, an average of about 1.2 million total crossings occurred per month via five official
crossing points (expanded to seven in November 2020). The pandemic led to the temporary
closure of crossing points. After the crossing points began to reopen, authorities in the Russia-
controlled areas imposed new restrictions, limiting total crossings to under 100,000 per month.
Conflict Resolution Process
With respect to eastern Ukraine, Russia and Ukraine formally participate in a conflict resolution
process structured around a set of measures known as the Minsk agreements (Russia refuses to
engage in a similar conflict resolution process with respect to Crimea, as Russia claims to have
annexed that region). The Minsk agreements were signed in 2014 and 2015 by representatives
of Russia, Ukraine, and the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe (OSCE)—
members of what is known as the Trilateral Contact Group—together with Russian proxy
authorities in eastern Ukraine. The agreements are supported by a broader international
grouping known as the Normandy Four (or Normandy Format): France, Germany, Russia, and
Ukraine.
The Minsk agreements were signed in September 2014 and February 2015. The 2014
agreements included the 12- point Minsk Protocol, signed days after Russia-led forces defeated
Ukrainian government and volunteer forces in a major battle, and a follow-up memorandum
outlining measures for a cease-fire and international monitoring mission. The Minsk Protocol
failed to end fighting or prompt a political resolution to the conflict. Leaders from Ukraine and
Russia, as well as from France and Germany, met again in February 2015, amid another major
battle, to develop a more detailed “package of measures” known as Minsk-2. Although Minsk-2
established a specific timeline and/or sequencing for several of its measures, the sequencing of
some key measures was ambiguous. Many of the measures in Minsk-2 remain unfulfilled to
date. A summary of Minsk-2 measures is as follows:
1. Immediate and comprehensive cease-fire.
2. Withdrawal of heavy weapons from defined security zones.
3. OSCE monitoring and verification of the cease-fire regime and withdrawal of heavy
weapons.
4. Dialogue on (1) modalities of local elections in accordance with Ukrainian legislation and
(2) the future status of “certain areas” in Donetsk and Luhansk and specification of the
areas in eastern Ukraine to which this status applies.
5. Amnesty via a law forbidding persecution and punishment of persons “in connection
with the events” that took place in certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk.
6. Release and exchange of all hostages and other illegally detained people based on a
principle of “all for all.”
7. Safe access and delivery of humanitarian aid to those in need, on the basis of an
international mechanism.
8. Determining modalities for fully restoring social and economic links with
nongovernment-controlled areas of eastern Ukraine, including pensions and taxes (and,
consequently, functioning of the Ukrainian banking system in those areas).
9. Restoration of full Ukrainian control over its border with Russia, beginning from the first
day after local elections and ending after a comprehensive political settlement, following
the introduction of a new constitution and permanent legislation on the special status of
certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk.
10. Withdrawal of all foreign armed groups, weapons, and mercenaries from Ukrainian
territory and disarmament of all illegal groups.
11. Constitutional reform, including on decentralization, and permanent legislation on the
special status of certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk, in agreement with
representatives of nongovernment-controlled areas.
12. Local elections to be held in certain areas in Donetsk and Luhansk, in agreement with
representatives of those districts and in accordance with OSCE standards.
13. Intensification of the work of the Trilateral Contact Group, including through working
groups on implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Sources: “Protocol on the Outcome of Consultations of the Trilateral Contact Group on Joint
Steps Aimed at the Implementation of the Peace Plan of the President of Ukraine, P. Poroshenko,
and the Initiatives of the President of the Russian Federation, V. Putin,” September 5, 2014;
“Memorandum on the Implementation of the Provisions of the Protocol […],” September 19,
2014; and “Package of Measures for the Implementation of the Minsk Agreements,” February
12, 2015.
The U.N. Security Council, which includes Russia as a permanent member, has endorsed the
Minsk agreements. U.N. Security Council Resolution 2202 (2015) endorses and calls on all
parties to fully implement the package of measures. In 2018, a Security Council presidential
statement urged the parties to recommit to the peace process [and] achieve immediate
progress in the implementation of the Minsk agreements.
Ukrainian President Zelensky initially sought to reinvigorate what had been a relatively dormant
conflict resolution process. In 2019, Ukrainian and Russia-led forces implemented one long
planned confidence-building measure: the withdrawal of armed forces and hardware from
three disengagement areas near populated areas. Several major prisoner exchanges also
occurred. Although the July 2020 cease-fire was more successful than previous ones, armed
hostilities have continued. In addition, efforts to settle thornier issues, including the withdrawal
of Russian forces and the legal status of Russia-controlled areas, have not been successful. After
Russia’s spring 2021 military buildup along the border with Ukraine and in Crimea, President
Zelensky called for a reconsideration of the Minsk process and the expansion of the Normandy
Format to include the United States and others. Ukrainian officials have underlined the need for
a permanent cease-fire and withdrawal of Russian official and unofficial forces, both on
principle and as a necessary condition for establishing a secure environment to hold free and
fair local elections in the Russia-controlled regions of eastern Ukraine. The Russian government,
for its part, continues to deny a substantial military presence in eastern Ukraine and disavows
responsibility for cease-fire violations and the failure to withdraw heavy weapons. Russia has
called on Ukraine, irrespective of the security environment and the presence of Russian forces,
to fulfill certain political measures, including a permanent grant of special status to the
nongovernment-controlled areas and related constitutional reforms. In eastern Ukraine, an
international monitoring mission monitors cease-fire violations and the presence of heavy
weaponry within defined security zones. The OSCE’s Special Monitoring Mission (SMM) to
Ukraine is an unarmed civilian monitoring mission that was established in 2014 after Russia’s
occupation of Crimea. The SMM is deployed throughout Ukraine but focuses on the
nongovernment-controlled areas in Donetsk and Luhansk. As of August 2021, the SMM includes
almost 700 international monitors, including 59 from the United States, the SMM’s largest
contributor. The SMM issues daily and spot monitoring reports on the security situation and
facilitates the delivery of humanitarian aid. The OSCE also operated an Observer Mission at the
Russian Checkpoints Gukovo and Donetsk (both within Russia) to monitor border crossings to
and from eastern Ukraine. In September 2021, Russian authorities announced that Russia
would not support a renewal of this second mission’s mandate after September 30, 2021.
Maritime Conflict
Russia has sought to establish greater control over maritime regions adjacent to Crimea and
eastern Ukraine, including in the Sea of Azov, the Black Sea, and the Kerch Strait, which
connects the two seas (see Figure 4). In 2018, Russian President Putin opened a 12-mile-long
bridge over the Kerch Strait linking Russia to occupied Crimea. The bridge was designed to
accommodate an existing shipping lane, but it imposed new limits on the size of ships that
transit the strait and enables Russia to prevent passage to and from the Sea of Azov. Russia also
bolstered its maritime forces in the Sea of Azov. Russia interferes with commercial traffic
traveling to and from Ukrainian ports on the Sea of Azov in Mariupol and Berdyansk, which
export steel, grain, and coal. In 2018, Russian forces forcibly prevented Ukrainian naval vessels
from passing through the Kerch Strait to reach Ukrainian shores, illegally detained 24 crew
members for 10 months, and returned their heavily damaged ships after two more months.
Ukraine and its international partners considered the incident to be a major violation of
international law and an escalation in Russia’s efforts to control maritime access to eastern
Ukraine. In 2019, the U.N.-established International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea issued an
order requiring Russia to release the sailors and ships.
Why is there a conflict?
Ukraine, which was part of the Russian empire for centuries before becoming a Soviet republic,
won independence as the USSR broke up in 1991. It moved to shed its Russian imperial legacy
and forge increasingly close ties with the West.
A decision by Kremlin-leaning Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych to reject an association
agreement with the European Union in favour of closer ties with Moscow led to mass protests
that saw him removed as leader in 2014.
Russia responded by annexing Ukraine’s Crimean Peninsula and throwing its weight behind a
separatist rebellion that broke out in Ukraine’s east.
Ukraine and the West accused Russia of sending its troops and weapons to back the rebels.
Moscow denied that, saying the Russians who joined the separatists were volunteers.
According to Kyiv, more than 14,000 people have died in the fighting that devastated Donbas,
Ukraine’s eastern industrial heartland.
For its part, Moscow has strongly criticized the US and its NATO allies for providing Ukraine with
weapons and holding joint drills, saying that such moves encourage Ukrainian hawks to try to
regain the rebel-held areas by force.
Furthermore, Russian President Vladimir Putin has repeatedly said Ukraine’s aspirations to join
NATO are a red line, and expressed concern about plans by some NATO members to set up
military training centers in Ukraine. This, he has said, would give them a military foothold in the
region even without Ukraine joining NATO.
What does Russia want?
It is more about what Russia doesn’t want. Russia does not want Ukraine in NATO – and has
said as much in its list of security demands which were sent to the US last December. The
demands included a halt to any NATO drills near Russia’s border.
Many of these ultimatums have been slammed as non-starters by the West. It also wants NATO
to withdraw from Eastern Europe.
In December, Putin said Russia was seeking guarantees “that would exclude any further NATO
moves eastward and the deployment of weapons systems that threaten us in close vicinity to
Russian territory”.
Putin offered the West an opportunity to engage in substantive talks on the issue, adding that
Moscow would need not just verbal assurances, but “legal guarantees”.
Ukraine’s admission to the alliance would require the unanimous approval of the 30 states that
make up the body.
The US and NATO have now responded to the calls. While neither Moscow nor the Western
powers have gone public with the details of those responses, it has been made clear that
Russia’s main demands – Ukraine essentially banned from being a NATO member and a
promise that the alliance won’t expand further east – have been turned down.
Relations with the EU and NATO
Since 2014, the Ukrainian government has prioritized closer integration with the EU and NATO.
In 2019, a new constitutional amendment declared the government responsible for
implementing Ukraine’s strategic course toward EU and NATO membership. Zelensky’s first
foreign trip as president was to Brussels, where he reaffirmed Ukraine’s “strategic course to
achieve full-fledged membership in the EU and NATO. The EU’s main framework for political
and economic engagement with Ukraine is an Association Agreement, which encourages
harmonization with EU laws and regulations and includes a Deep and Comprehensive Free
Trade Area (DCFTA). According to the EU, the DCFTA appears to be having a significant positive
impact on trade in goods. In 2017, the EU granted Ukrainian citizens visa-free entry to the EU’s
Schengen area of free movement, which allows individuals to travel without passport checks
between most European countries. The EU has imposed sanctions on Russia in response to its
invasion of Ukraine and supported Ukraine against Russia’s maritime aggression. The EU is a
major provider of foreign aid to Ukraine, totaling more than €13 billion (about $14.2 billion) in
loans and €2 billion ($2.2 billion) in grants from 2014 to 2019. In addition, EU member states
provided an additional €1.4 billion ($1.5 billion) in bilateral assistance.122 In 2020, the EU
announced it would provide more than €190 million ($205 million) in emergency support to
Ukraine to address the COVID-19 pandemic. The EU subsequently provided another €1.2 billion
($1.3 billion) in loans to help limit the economic fallout of the pandemic.
Ukraine also has close relations with NATO, which considers the NATO-Ukraine relationship to
be one of the most substantial of NATO’s partnerships. In 1994, Ukraine was the first post-
Soviet state (after the Baltic states) to join NATO’s Partnership for Peace. A NATO-Ukraine
Commission was established in 1997. Under ex-President Yanukovych, Ukraine adopted a non-
bloc (i.e., nonaligned) status, rejecting aspirations of NATO membership. After Russia’s 2014
invasion, Ukraine’s parliament rejected this non-bloc status. In 2016, NATO endorsed a
Comprehensive Assistance Package (CAP) for Ukraine to implement security and defense sector
reforms according to NATO standards.” The CAP includes several trust fund projects to support
capability development and sustainable capacity-building in key areas. In June 2020, Ukraine
became one of NATO’s Enhanced Opportunity Partners, a cooperative status currently granted
to six of NATO’s close strategic partners. NATO members provide training to and conduct joint
exercises with the Ukrainian armed forces in a multinational framework. Ukraine supports
NATO peacekeeping and maritime operations. Ukrainian forces have long contributed to the
NATO-led Kosovo Force. Ukraine contributed to the International Security Assistance Force and
follow-on Resolute Support Mission in Afghanistan, the counterterrorism Operation Active
Endeavour maritime mission, and the antipiracy Operation Ocean Shield. In addition, Ukraine
has supported NATO’s maritime Sea Guardian operation. Ukraine also participates in the NATO
Response Force, a rapid reaction force. In recent years, the Ukrainian government has sought to
deepen its relations with NATO. In 2017, Ukraine’s parliament voted to make cooperation with
NATO a foreign policy priority. Ukraine’s 2020 National Security Strategy includes as a priority
the development of a special partnership with NATO and the pursuit of NATO membership. In
2021, President Zelensky and other Ukrainian officials called on NATO to grant Ukraine a
Membership Action Plan, which they see as a stepping stone to membership. Closer integration
with the EU and NATO does not appear to have enabled Ukraine to improve its near-term
prospects for membership in these organizations. According to recent polls, more than half of
Ukrainians support membership in the EU (polls do not include occupied Crimea or Russia-
controlled areas of eastern Ukraine). The EU is unlikely to consider Ukraine a candidate for
membership soon, however, given Ukraine’s domestic challenges, the conflict with Russia, the
EU’s own internal challenges, and the lack of support for further enlargement among many EU
members.
Ukraine also faces a challenge to NATO membership. In 2008, NATO members formally agreed
that Ukraine and Georgia would become members of NATO, but neither state has been granted
a clear path to or timeline for membership. Many observers believe NATO will not move
forward with membership as long as Russia occupies Ukrainian territory and the conflict
remains unresolved. Ukrainians themselves remain divided over NATO membership. Since
2014, about 40%-50% of opinion poll respondents support membership in NATO (compared to
about 25%- 30% against); these polls do not include occupied Crimea and Russia-controlled
areas of eastern Ukraine, where support for NATO membership likely would be lower even in
the absence of conflict.
Will Ukraine join NATO?
Ukraine is not a NATO member, but it wants to be. It is considered a partner of the alliance.
Before being considered for membership, NATO says, Kyiv needs to root out scourges such as
corruption.
NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg in December rejected Russian demands to rescind a
2008 commitment to Ukraine that the country would one day become a member.
Stoltenberg maintains that when the time comes to consider the issue, Russia will not be able
to veto Ukraine’s accession.
Analysts however say that NATO allies, the United States chief among them, are reluctant to
expand their military footprint in the region and further jeopardize their relationship with
Moscow.
While US Secretary of State Antony Blinken has voiced support for Ukraine’s membership in
NATO, President Joe Biden has been more ambiguous on the question.
Will there be all-out war?
The West is accusing Russia, which has amassed 100,000 troops on the Ukrainian border, of
preparing to invade its pro-Western neighbor.
Biden claims “total unanimity” on how to deal with Russia. The Pentagon has put 8,500 US
troops on standby for an Eastern European deployment and NATO said it was sending ships and
jets to bolster the region’s defenses.
President Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peskov said these actions only added to an already tense
atmosphere.
“The United States is escalating tensions,” he told reporters. “We are watching these US actions
with great concern.”
Russia denies it has any plans to invade Ukraine and accuses the West of aggravating the
situation.
It is uncertain whether war will break out between the two countries but some analysts say
Russia could move in on Ukraine to claim a quick, decisive victory and increase its bargaining
power in future talks about NATO’s expansion and spheres of influence.
“I think what Russia and Vladimir Putin will be really after would be to defeat the Ukrainian
armed forces in the field, inflict a crushing military defeat that humiliates the Ukrainians and by
extension create concern that the backing Ukraine has from its allies in the West, the US and
UK, is insufficient,” said Samir Puri, a senior fellow at the International Institute for Strategic
Studies.
What happens if Russia invades Ukraine?
Western nations have thrown their support behind Ukraine, but some responses have been
tougher than others. The US and UK have supplied weapons, while Germany plans to send a
field medical facility next month but will not transfer military equipment.
There has also been much talk of sanctions aimed at punishing Moscow. Publicly, the US and
European allies have promised to hit Russia financially like never before if Putin does roll his
military into Ukraine. Leaders have given few details, arguing it is best to keep Putin guessing,
but Washington and London have spoken of personal measures targeting the Russian president.
Cutting Russia out of the SWIFT financial system, which moves money from bank to bank
around the globe, would be one of the toughest financial steps they could take, damaging
Russia’s economy immediately and in the long term.
The move could cut Russia off from most international financial transactions, including
international profits from oil and gas production, which accounts for more than 40 percent of
the country’s revenue.
The US also holds one of the most powerful financial weapons against Putin if he invades
Ukraine – blocking Russia from access to the US dollar.
Dollars still dominate in financial transactions around the world, with trillions of dollars in play
daily.
Finally, the US is considering imposing export controls, potentially cutting Russia off from the
high tech that, among other things, helps warplanes and passenger jets fly and powers
smartphones.
Ukraine crisis: From Belarus to Japan, where do countries stand?
Ukraine has been on edge for nearly two months, with Russian troops massing on its border.
Russia insists the troops are only there to defend the country from NATO’s expanded presence
in the region, but Western intelligence officials argue Moscow’s military buildup could signal
the beginning of a ground invasion.
Moscow has been displeased ever since a protest movement unseated a pro-Russian
government in 2014.
Although Russia insists it has no military designs, it also says talks that de-escalate the situation
would have to involve NATO promising not to let Ukraine join and to keep forces out of Eastern
Europe.
United States
President Joe Biden has said he would consider imposing economic sanctions personally
targeting Vladimir Putin if the Russian president orders a new attack on Ukraine.
Despite the warning of sanctions, the US leader said he has “no intention” of sending troops
into Ukraine.
There is also a question of energy supplies, given Russia holds the world’s largest natural gas
reserves.
Senior Biden administration officials have said the US was in talks with major energy-producing
countries and companies around the world about a potential diversion of supplies to Europe if
Russia invades Ukraine.
European Union
President of the European Council Charles Michel expressed solidarity with Ukraine on
Wednesday, saying: “A threat against Ukraine is a threat against Europe.”
United Kingdom
The United Kingdom has denounced Russia’s military building up near its border with Ukraine.
British Prime Minister Boris Johnson on Tuesday said the UK would not hesitate to impose
sanctions on Russia if it chose to invade Ukraine.
“We in the UK will not hesitate to toughen our national sanctions against Russia in response to
whatever President [Vladimir] Putin may do and the House [of Commons] will soon hear more
on this,” Johnson told Parliament.
Johnson said Britain would look to contribute to any new NATO deployments to protect its
allies in Europe if Russia invaded Ukraine.
If Putin’s goal was to keep NATO forces away from Russia’s borders, then “invading Ukraine
could scarcely be more counterproductive”, he said.
China
China has said it wants to see all sides involved in the Ukraine crisis remain calm and avoid
increasing tension, while warning Russia’s security concerns should be “taken seriously”.
“We call on all parties to stay calm and refrain from doing things that agitate tensions and hype
up the crisis,” Foreign Minister Wang Yi told US Secretary of State Antony Blinken in a phone
call late on Wednesday.
In an apparent reference to Russia’s objections to NATO’s expansion, Wang said that regional
security could not be guaranteed by strengthening or even expanding military blocs, according
to a statement from China’s foreign ministry.
The statement also said Wang told Blinken that Russia’s “reasonable security concerns should
be taken seriously and resolved”.
Beijing has been strengthening its own ties with Moscow as tensions between China and the
United States have grown across a range of issues.
France
French President Emmanuel Macron has said Russia would pay a heavy price if it chose to
attack Ukraine, even as he welcomed dialogue with Moscow.
He has also expressed his country’s readiness to deploy troops to Romania to serve under
NATO’s command, a move welcomed by Bucharest.
Germany
Germany has expressed its support for Ukraine throughout the crisis but has unlike other NATO
members announced it will not provide weapons to Kyiv.
In February, “a complete field hospital will be handed over, including the necessary training, all
co-financed by Germany to the tune of 5.3 million euros [$6m]”, German Defence Minister
Christine Lambrecht recently told reporters.
“Weapons deliveries would not be helpful at the moment – that is the consensus in the federal
government,” she said.
Meanwhile, Vice Admiral Kay-Achim Schoenbach, the head of the German navy, resigned
earlier in January after coming under fire at home and abroad for saying that Ukraine would
never regain the Crimean Peninsula, which was annexed by Russia in 2014.
The Nord Stream 2 project, a Russia-owned pipeline stretching from Siberia to Germany, has
complicated Berlin’s position.
Finland
Finland, which is not a member of NATO and has a long border and a difficult history with
Russia, has enhanced its military readiness in the face of Russia’s military buildup.
Colonel Petteri Kajanmaa, head of the warfare department at the Finnish National Defence
University, speaking on behalf of the armed forces, has said instability in the Baltic Sea region
stemmed from the unpredictability of Russia.
“They [the Russians] have expressed their goals clearly but we do not know what actions they
are ready to take,” he said recently.
Belarus
Belarus, a close Putin ally, shares a border with both Russia and Ukraine.
President Alexander Lukashenko is strengthening its military forces at the border with Ukraine
and will hold joint drills with Russia soon.
“I was forced [to] do it because the situation on the border with Ukraine is not better than it’s
on the border with Poland,” he said, referring to the recent migrant crisis.
Lukashenko said the joint manoeuvres with Russia will be conducted on Belarus’s western
border and in the country’s south, where it borders Ukraine.
Washington has warned Minsk that its government will face reprisals if it helps Russia to invade
Ukraine.
Italy
Italy’s defence minister has said his country would uphold its NATO commitments in the
Ukraine crisis, while underlining the need for a peaceful solution.
Italy’s defence ministry said on Wednesday it was committed to maintaining dialogue with
Moscow, insisting on talks to seek a peaceful solution.
At the same time, President Putin held a video call with Italian business leaders, focused on
strengthening economic ties.
Croatia
Croatia has sent mixed signals.
President Zoran Milanovic on Tuesday said Croatia would pull out of Ukraine should “one of the
most corrupt countries in the world” come into conflict with Russia.
“This is all happening in Russia’s anteroom,” the president said, adding that an agreement must
be reached “that takes Russia’s security needs into consideration”.
The outburst prompted Croatian Prime Minister Andrej Plenkovic to issue a rebuttal later on
Tuesday, according to the Hina news agency.
“I want to apologise to Ukraine in the name of the Croatian government,” he said, noting that
Ukraine, in 1991, was one of the first countries to recognise Croatian statehood as it emerged
from the break-up of Yugoslavia.
Japan
Japan has announced that it will work closely with the US in the event of Russia invading
Ukraine.
The discussion with the US regarding what would happen in the event of an invasion during a
teleconference summit last week, a Japanese government spokesperson said.
Romania
President Klaus Iohannis said Romania is in talks with the US and France on how to enhance
their troop count in his country, which he said was ready to host an increased NATO military
presence.
“I have been constantly saying we are ready to host an increased allied presence on our
territory,” Iohannis said.
“The current crisis proves once more that … consolidating allied presence on the eastern flank
including in our country is very important,” he said.
Sources:
[Link]
ukraine-tensions
[Link]
world-has-reacted
[Link]
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