Presentation To Analysts and Investors: Results For Full-Year 2019
Presentation To Analysts and Investors: Results For Full-Year 2019
March 2020
Contents
Sections
1 Highlights 3
2 Business review: Global Advisory 9
3 Business review: Wealth & Asset Management 15
4 Business review: Merchant Banking 19
5 Financials 25
6 Targets and outlook 31
Appendices 33
1
Highlights
1. Highlights
Highlights
Good results in challenging markets
⚫ Global Advisory (GA): resilient M&A advisory with a record Q4, 7th by revenue and 2nd by number globally
⚫ Wealth & Asset Management (WAM): 17% increase of AuM (from €64.8bn to €76.0bn) thanks to solid NNA in
Key
Wealth Management and favourable financial markets
achievements
⚫ Merchant Banking (MB): strong growth of 27% of AuM and continuing to deliver significant profit contribution
(+9% y-o-y)
⚫ GA: ongoing investment in North America and acquisition of Arrowpoint, focusing on UK mid-market segment
Strategy on ⚫ WAM : first collaboration across the WAM businesses to increase synergies
track ⚫ MB: active fundraising, notably with the launching of Five Arrows Debt Partners II (FADP II) and Five Arrows
Global Loan Investments (GLI)
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1. Highlights
Group revenue
Increasing revenue in WAM and MB; GA revenue decline as anticipated
Group revenue (in €m)
CAGR 15-19:
+6% -5%
1,976
1,910 1,872
9%
1,713 +13% 11%
10%
1,507 8%
24%
25% +3% 27%
8% 19%
23%
64%
-9%
68% 62% 62%
63%
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1. Highlights
Group EPS
Leverage effect of lower revenue impacting EPS
EPS excluding exceptionals (in €) EPS (in €m) Average number
of shares – 000s
68,586
2015/16 1.95 3.37
68,672
2016 2.66 2.60
3.88 73,388
2018 4.10
-21% -13%
3.38 71,340
2019 3.24
Note
1 Average number of shares decreasing as a consequence of the share buy back as part of Edmond de Rothschild deal in August 2018
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1. Highlights
Dividend
In line with our progressive dividend policy, increase of 8%
Dividend progression over 5 years
+35%
since 2016
+8%
€0.85
€0.79
€0.68 €0.72
€0.63
Payout
ratio 1, 2 32% 26% 22% 19% 26%
Notes
1 In 2017, €0.72 was the pro forma equivalent dividend on a full year basis, in relation to the shorter financial year of 2017 following the change of year end from March to
December
2 Payout ratio is calculated excluding exceptional items
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2
Business review: Global
Advisory
2. Business review: Global Advisory
Global Advisory
Global M&A market by values
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
-
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019
16 vs 15 17 vs 16 18 vs 17 19 vs 18
% var Announced (17)% (4)% 19% (3)%
% var Completed (0)% (8)% 15% (14)%
Source: Refinitiv
Note: 2019 announced value includes 3 US domestic deals >$80bn with a cumulative value of $267bn (Bristol-Myers Sqibb / Celgene, United Technologies / Raytheon and AbbVie / Allergan (vs none in 2018)
10
Public
2. Business review: Global Advisory
Global Advisory
Revenue outperforming M&A markets, with record revenue in Q4 of €394m (+16% QoQ)
Revenue by product (in €m)
CAGR 15-19:
+5% -9%
1,271
1,171 1,183 1,160
26%
24% -14% 25%
947 32%
29%
-7%
76% 74%
75%
68%
71%
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2. Business review: Global Advisory
Global Advisory
Maintaining a very strong position by revenue and number of deals
Ranking by advisory revenue (in €m) – 12m to December 2019
Ranking by % of Total
# deals revenue
JP Morgan 2,123 3 2%
Evercore 1,479
10 80%
Lazard 1,213
5 53%
1,160 2 62%
Citigroup 1,124 6 2%
Barclays 885
8 4%
2019 2018
Source: Company’s filings, Thomson Reuters, global ranking by # of deals based on completed transactions
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2. Business review: Global Advisory
Global Advisory
Profitability compressed by several factors
Profit Before Tax (in €m) and PBT margin - pre US investment costs1
350 40.0%
300
35.0%Main reasons for profit
255 compression
-29% ⚫ Revenue down by 9%
250
212 30.0%⚫ Ongoing strategic
211
investment in North
200 182 America despite an
25.0% unfavourable mid-
market M&A and
150 significantly lower
restructuring market
20.0%
100 20% ⚫ Poor market
conditions in China
18% 18%
15.0%⚫ Increase in Non
50 16% personnel costs in
line with the market
- 10.0%
2016 2017 2018 2019
Compensation
ratio2
65.6% 65.0% 63.4% 64.9%
Note
1 US investment costs were €23m in 2016, €25m in 2017, €22m 2018 and €16m in 2019. Our US investment costs are expected to be around 2% of revenue subject to the right opportunities
2 On an awarded basis
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2. Business review: Global Advisory
6 offices Debt
Activism
Restructuring
New York, Washington and Toronto and more recently Los Metals &
Advisory Mining
Angeles (2014), Chicago (2016) and Palo Alto (2018)
Technology Financial
Sponsors
FIG / Asset Established presence Equity
c.200 40 Management
Enhanced since 2016
Advisory
advisory bankers MDs
Retail Initiated since 2016 Consumer
Enhanced in 2019
Industrials
30 5 Healthcare
new M&A MDs since 2014 new MDs in 2019 Infrastructure Telecoms
& Power Business
Chemicals Paper & Services
Our North American progression1 Packaging
Var Market
2014 2019
14-19 % change
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3
Business review: Wealth &
Asset Management
4
3. Business Review: Wealth & Asset Management
+17%
8.8 76.0
67.3 2.4
64.8
33%
54.0
51.0 37% 34%
WM: €2.5bn
41% AM: (€0.1)bn
40%
67%
63% 66%
60% 59%
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3. Business Review: Wealth & Asset Management
France
50 UK 47%
100 17%
-
-10%
80 80 72
- - Sw itzerland
2017 2018 2019 17%
Note
1 Revenues are calculated excluding Trust business following its sale in February 2019
2 France includes France, Belgium and Monaco
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3. Business Review: Wealth & Asset Management
Note
1 PBT calculated excluding Trust business following its sale in February 2019
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4
Business review: Merchant
Banking
5
4. Business review: Merchant Banking
Merchant Banking
Continuing strong growth of AuM thanks to launch of new funds
Assets under Management (in €bn)
Private
Equity
25%
Credit
14.0 Management
CAGR 15-19: +27% 47%
Secondaries
+29% / Co-
Direct investments
11.1 Lending 19%
9%
8.3
91%
5.8
91%
5.0
90%
88%
86%
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4. Business review: Merchant Banking
Merchant Banking
Continuing value creation in portfolio for Rothschild & Co shareholders
Change in net asset value of the Group’s investment (in €m)
84
9 (22)
126 75
(82) 617
52
140
438
371
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4. Business review: Merchant Banking
Merchant Banking
Strong revenue growth driven by increasing recurring revenue stream
Revenue (in €m)
300
250
CAGR 16-19:
250
+14% +13%
197
200
185
175 200
186
164
150 58
133 145 -15%
150
131
69
100 93 +32% 48
53 100
36 91
31
29 70 % Recurring /
50 61 +31% total50revenue :
51 46%
38%
0 -
2016 2017 2018 2019
Recurring Revenue Carried interest Gains (realised and unrealised) Revenue - average 3 years
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4. Business review: Merchant Banking
Merchant Banking
High level of profits and return on adjusted capital
Profit Before Tax (in €m) and RORAC1
200 250.0%
140
+9%
120
120 111 150.0%
102
100
82
80 100.0%
60
0 -
2016 2017 2018 2019
Note
1 RORAC stands for Return On Risk Adjusted Capital – an internal measure of risk capital invested in the business, being profit before tax divided by risk weighted capital
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5
Financials
9
5. Financial review
1
Earnings per share 3.38 € 3.88 € (0.50) € (13)%
EPS excl. exceptionals 3.24 € 4.10 € (0.86) € (21)%
Return On Tangible Equity (ROTE) 13.2% 17.0%
ROTE excl. exceptionals 12.6% 18.0%
Note
1 Diluted EPS is €3.35 for 2019 (2018: €3.82)
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5. Financial review
“Exceptionals” reconciliation
⚫ Exceptional items in 2019 comprise net gains on property transactions and on legacy assets including the
sale of the Trust business in February 2019
⚫ Exceptionals items in 2019 are all included in “Other income / (expense)” in the P&L
⚫ The Group has decided to move to a new IT infrastructure supplier. This will result in a one-off transition and
transformation charge of around €15 million in 2020
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5. Financial review
Performance by business
Global Wealth & Asset Merchant Corporate IFRS
(in €m) 2019
Advisory Management Banking centre reconciliation 1
PBT excluding exceptional charges / profits 166 73 111 (29) 126 447
PBT excluding exceptional charges / profits 233 85 102 (34) 165 551
Note
1 The reconciliation to IFRS mainly reflects: the treatment of profit share paid to French partners as non-controlling interests; accounting for deferred bonuses over the period that they are earned; the application of IAS 19
for defined benefit pension schemes; adding back non-operating gains and losses booked in "net income/(expense) from other assets"; removing realised gains on sales of investment securities where the unrealised
gain was in the available-for-sale reserve at 31 December 2017 before the introduction on IFRS 9; and reallocating impairments and certain operating income and expenses for presentational purposes.
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5. Financial review
Compensation ratio
Notes
1 Total staff costs include profit share paid to French Partners and effects of accounting for deferred bonuses over the period in which they are earned, as opposed to
“awarded” basis but exclude redundancy costs, revaluation of share-based employee liabilities and acquisition costs treated as employee compensation under IFRS
2 UK Guaranteed minimum pension provision related to a provision estimated by actuaries to cover inequality of treatment between men and women
3 GA US investment costs are defined as compensation earned in respect of the first 12 month period of employment plus any make-wholes payable in the reporting period
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5. Financial review
9,069
7,997
20.4%
19.5%
3,307
20.4%
19.5%
3,310
230
CET 1 w ith
5,532 buffer min: 7%
4,345
Credit risk Market risk Operational risk CET 1 / Tier 1 ratio Tier 2
⚫ Credit RWA’s increased due to the first application of IFRS 16 since January 2019, new Merchant Banking
commitments, treasury investments and increase of the loan book
Note
1 The ratio submitted to ACPR as at 31 December 2019 was 18.5%, which excludes the profit of the second half of the year as non-audited at the time of the transmission
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6
Targets and outlook
6. Financial targets and Outlook
Global Mid to high- ⚫ Current visible pipeline healthy across the business and
Advisory: teens above levels at the same point last year
16% 20%
Profit before through the ⚫ Recent market correction gives rise for concern, but too
tax margin3 cycle early to determine impact on activity levels
Notes
1 As adjusted including deferred bonus accounting– see slide 29
2 ROTE based on Net income – Group share excl. exceptionals items. Would be 13.2% if exceptionals included (2018: 17.0%). See definition on slide 39 and calculation on slide 40
3 GA PBT margin pre-US investments. Would be 14.3% if US investments included (2018: 18.4%)
4 WAM PBT is presented excluding the Trust business following the sale in February 2019
5 See definition on slide 39 and calculation on slide 40
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2. Business lines
Appendices
8
Corporate Responsibility – an ambitious roadmap
Encouraging a culture of responsible business
We encourage a culture of responsible business and proactively take responsibility for the impact
we have as a business on our people, our industry, our communities and our planet.
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Responsible Investment
Building a Common Responsible Investment framework
Three key objectives for 2022 Business lines already onboard
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Major FX rates
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Summary Balance sheet
Cash and amounts due from central banks 4.4 4.7 (0.3)
Loans and advances to banks 2.0 2.0 0.0
Loans and advances to customers 3.3 2.9 0.4
of which Private client lending 2.8 2.5 0.3
Debt and equity securities 2.8 2.1 0.7
Other assets 1.7 1.5 0.2
Total assets 14.2 13.2 1.0
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Non-controlling interests
Interest on perpetual
17.3 17.7 Perpetual subordinated debt 303 291
subordinated debt
Note
1 Mainly relates to the profit share distributed to French partners
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Alternative performance measures (APM)
Definition
APM Definition Reason for use
Net income – Group share Net income attributable to equity holders excluding exceptional items To measure Net result Group share of
excluding exceptionals Rothschild & Co excluding exceptional items
EPS excluding exceptionals EPS excluding exceptional items To measure EPS excluding exceptional items
Ratio between adjusted staff costs divided by consolidated revenue of Rothschild & Co (as presented on slide 28). Adjusted staff
Adjusted compensation costs represent:
To measure the proportion of Net Banking
ratio 1. staff costs accounted in the income statement (which include the effects of accounting for deferred bonuses over the period in Income granted to all employees.
which they are earned as opposed to the “awarded” basis)
Key indicator for competitor listed investment
2. to which must be added the amount of profit share paid to the French partners banks.
3. from which must be deducted redundancy costs, revaluation of share-based employee liabilities and business acquisition costs
treated as employee compensation under IFRS Rothschild & Co calculates this ratio with
- which gives Total staff costs in calculating the basic compensation ratio adjustments to give the fairest and closest
4. from which the investment costs related to the recruitment of senior bankers in the United States must be deducted, calculation to that used by other comparable
5. the amount of adjusted staff costs is restated by the exchange rate effect to offset the exchange rate fluctuations from one year listed companies.
to the next
- which gives the adjusted staff costs for compensation ratio.
Ratio between Net income - Group share excluding exceptional items and average tangible equity Group share over the period.
Return on Tangible Equity To measure the overall profitability of Rothschild
Tangible equity corresponds to total equity Group share less intangible assets (net of tax) and goodwill.
(ROTE) excluding Average tangible equity over the period equal to the average between tangible equity as at 31 December 2018 and 30 June 2019 & Co excluding exceptional items on the equity
exceptional items capital in the business
Each business Operating margin is calculated by dividing Profit before tax relative to revenue, business by business.
Business Operating margin To measure business’ profitability
It excludes exceptional items
Ratio of an adjusted profit before tax divided by an internal measure of risk adjusted capital deployed in the business on a rolling
Return on Risk Adjusted 3-year basis. To measure the performance of the Merchant
Capital (RORAC) The estimated amount of capital and debt which management believes would be reasonable to fund the Group’s investments in Banking’s business
Merchant Banking products is consistent with its cautious approach to risk management. Based on the mix of its investment
portfolio as of the reporting dates, management believes that this “risk-adjusted capital” (RAC) amounts to c. 70% of the Group’s
investments net asset value and that the remainder could be funded by debt. This percentage broadly represents the weighted
average of 80% for equity exposures, 50% for junior credit exposures, 40% for CLO exposures in vertical strips and 33% for senior
credit exposures.
To calculate the RORAC, MB profit before tax is adjusted by a notional 2.5% cost of debt, computed as per the above (i.e. 30% of
the Group’s investments NAV), divided by the RAC.
Disclosed RORAC is calculated on a 3-year rolling period average to account for the inevitable volatility in the financial results of
the business, primarily relating to investment income and carried interest recognition.
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Alternative performance measures (APM)
Calculation
ROTE RORAC
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Rothschild & Co at a glance
As at 31 December 2019
Managing
Rothschild & Co Gestion Partner 5.9%
US Rothschild & Co
Wealth Management
Five Arrows Managers LLC
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Disclaimer
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