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Forecasting Example Naive and Basic Moving Average

The document provides examples of using different moving average methods to forecast demand for a product over time. It shows the demand data from January to July and calculates the naive forecast and 3-period moving average forecast for August. The 3-period moving average is calculated by taking the average of the past 3 periods and used to forecast the next period, showing it smooths the data compared to the naive forecast.

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maha rehman
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154 views3 pages

Forecasting Example Naive and Basic Moving Average

The document provides examples of using different moving average methods to forecast demand for a product over time. It shows the demand data from January to July and calculates the naive forecast and 3-period moving average forecast for August. The 3-period moving average is calculated by taking the average of the past 3 periods and used to forecast the next period, showing it smooths the data compared to the naive forecast.

Uploaded by

maha rehman
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as XLSX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Work Sheet Content

Moving Average Example 1-1 Naïve and Moving Average


Moving Average Example 1-2 Weighted Moving Average
Moving Average Example 1-3 Exponential Forcasting
Moving Average Example 1-4 MAD
Moving Average Example 1-5 MSE
Moving Average Example 1-6 MAPE
Moving Average Example 1-1

You have been asked to make a demand forecast for next month (August) using the monthly
demand data provided below. You are not sure what forecasting method will ultimately be the
best but you have dcided to begin with a naïve forecaste and then move on to a threee month
moving average. What are the Naive and 3-month moving average forecaste for August?

Data
Period Demand Naïve 3-period MA
January 121
February 126 121
March 128 126
April 137 128 125.00
May 143 137 130.33
June 154 143 136.00
July 167 154 144.67
August 167 154.67

Created by: Adam Munson


For Use By: Enrolled University of Florida Students
Moving Average Example 1

Forecasting Moving averages - 3 period moving average


Enter the past demands in the data
area

Num pds 3

Data Forecasts and Error Analysis


Period Demand Forecast Error Absolute Squared Abs Pct Err
Period 1 121
Period 2 126
Period 3 128
Period 4 137 125 12 12 144 08.76%
Period 5 143 130.3333333 12.66666667 12.66666667 160.4444444 08.86%
Period 6 154 136 18 18 324 11.69%
Period 7 167 144.6666667 22.33333333 22.33333333 498.7777778 13.37%
Total 65 65 1127.222222 42.68%
Average 16.25 16.25 281.8055556 10.67%
Bias MAD MSE MAPE
SE 23.74049517
Next period 154.6666667

Forecasting
180

160

140

120

100
Value

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Time

Demand Forecast

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