Hydrometeorology

Module 2 Lesson 5
Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Lesson 5:
WEATHER DISTURBANCES

General Objectives

Students must be able to name and identify different weather disturbances and weather
phenomena and connect them to real life scenario and be able to recommend basic ways of mitigating
their effects.

At the end of the lesson students must be able to:

1. distinguish weather disturbances from each other;

2. tell what causes weather disturbances and other weather phenomena and how they occur;
3. specify the forecasting method for weather disturbances, natural calamities and other
weather phenomena;
4. enhance their capability in responding to calamities such as thunderstorm, typhoons, floods,
tornadoes, el nino and la nina and other weather phenomena;
5. recite precautionary measures before, during, and after a typhoon;
6. show interest on different weather disturbances and natural calamities as it affect human’s
daily lives.

Contents Page
I. Introduction 3
II. Thunderstorm 4
How Thunderstorm Occurs 4
Lifecycle of a Thunderstorm 5
Thunderstorm Anatomy 7
III. Low Pressure Area 7
Low Pressure Typically Equals Unsettled Weather 8
Formation of a Low Pressure Area 10
IV. Tropical Cyclones 10
Formation of a Tropical Cyclone 11
Areas of Formation of Tropical Cyclones 12
Classification of Tropical Cyclones 13
Features of a Tropical Cyclone 13
Effects of a Tropical Cyclone 14
Oceanic Response to Tropical Cyclones 15
Energetics 17
Typhoon in the Philippines 18
V. Tornadoes and Water Spouts 19
VI. Flood 21
Introduction 21
Flood Causes 22
Flood Types 22
Cascading Effect 23
Monitoring and Prediction 24
Flood Forecast 24
Countermeasure and Mitigation of Flood Damage 27
Basic Safety Rules 27

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 Hydrometeorology
Module 2 Lesson 5
Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Socio­Economic Impacts of Flood 29

VII. Drought 29
Introduction 30
When does a drought begin 31
Effects of Drought 31
Types of Drought 32
Causes of Drought 32
Drought Prevention and Preparation 33
VIII. El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) Cycle 34
Description 34
Southern Oscillation 36
Effects of ENSO's Cool Phase (La Niña) 37
Impact of El Niño in the Philippines 37
Health Consequences of El Niño 39
Guide Questions 41
Evaluation 41
References 41
Glossary of Terms 41

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 Hydrometeorology
Module 2 Lesson 5
Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Lesson 5
WEATHER DISTURBANCES

Introduction

A weather disturbance is a general term that describes any pulse of energy moving through the
atmosphere. They are important in that they can act as focusing mechanisms for storm formation, or
even to intensify low pressure systems. They are typically mid or upper atmospheric troughs of low
pressure that are embedded in the general wind flow of the atmosphere. As the word suggests, a
weather disturbance is any disruption to atmosphere’s stable condition which will result to change in
weather conditions or weather patterns. In the Philippines, the most common weather disturbances are
tropical depression, tropical storm, typhoon, thunderstorm, easterly waves, monsoons and inter­tropical
convergence zone (ITCZ). Brief description of each are as follows:

Tropical Depression
A tropical cyclone with winds that do not exceed 63 kph. Most common in the region of the
equatorial or intertropical convergence and less frequently in the trade winds. Once a group of
thunderstorms has come together under the right atmospheric conditions for a long enough time, they
may organize into a tropical depression. Winds near the center are constantly between 20 and 34 knots
(mph).
Tropical Storm

A tropical storm is an organized system of strong thunderstorms with a defined surface

circulation and maximum sustained winds between 17 and 33 meters per second (34 to 63 knots, 39 to
73 mph, or 62 to 117 km/h). At this point, the distinctive cyclonic shape starts to develop, though an
eye is usually not present.
Typhoon

A tropical cyclone with winds that exceed 118 kph. The name is applied to a severe tropical
cyclone in the western regions of the Pacific Ocean. A typhoon is a name used in East Asia for a
Hurricane. A typhoon is similar to a hurricane in levels of destructiveness. The word typhoon comes
from the Chinese term tai­fung meaning great wind.
Thunderstorm
Weather disturbance that produces thunder and lightning, aside from wind and rain.
Thunderstorms occur locally, often as episodes of cyclones, and in common with squalls, are marked
by abrupt variations in pressure, temperature, and wind.
Monsoons
Monsoon is traditionally defined as a seasonal reversing wind accompanied by corresponding
changes in precipitation but is now used to describe seasonal changes in atmospheric circulation and
precipitation associated with the asymmetric heating of land and sea. Usually, the term monsoon is
used to refer to the rainy phase of a seasonally­ changing pattern, although technically there is also a
dry phase. (See Module 2 Lesson 1). PAGASA describe monsoon as a wind that reverses its direction
with the season, blowing more or less steadily from the interior of a continent toward the sea in winter,
and in the opposite direction during summer.

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Module 2 Lesson 5
Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Intertropical Convergence Zone

The Intertropical Convergence Zone (ITCZ), known by sailors as The Doldrums, is the area
encircling the earth near the equator where winds originating in the northern and southern hemispheres
come together. PAGASA describe ITCZ as the axis, or portion of the broad trade winds current of the
tropics. This axis is the dividing line between the southeast trades and the northeast trades.

I. THUNDERSTORM

It is late afternoon. The white puffy clouds that

have been growing all day are replaced by a greenish sky.
A distant rumble is heard...then another. It starts to rain.
A flash of light streaks the sky, followed by a huge
“BOOM”. Welcome to a thunderstorm.
Thunderstorms are one of the most thrilling and
dangerous of weather phenomena. Over 40,000
thunderstorms occur throughout the world each day.
Thunderstorms have several distinguishing characteristics
that can cause large amounts of damage to humans and
their property. Straight­line winds and tornadoes can
uproot trees and demolish buildings. Hail can damage cars
and crops. Heavy rains can create flash floods. Lightning
can spark a forest fire or hurt you. Safety during a
thunderstorm is really important.

Thunderstorm is a weather disturbance that

produces thunder and lightning, aside from wind and rain. Figure 1. A thunderstorm in its early stage.
Thunderstorms occur locally, often as episodes of
cyclones, and in common with squalls, are marked by abrupt variations in pressure, temperature, and
wind. (PAGASA, 2020)

A thunderstorm, also known as an electrical storm, a lightning storm, thundershower or simply

a storm is a form of weather characterized by the presence of lightning and its acoustic effect on the
Earth's atmosphere known as thunder. The meteorologically assigned cloud type associated with the
thunderstorm is the cumulonimbus. Thunderstorms are usually accompanied by strong winds, heavy
rain and sometimes snow, sleet, hail, or no precipitation at all. Those that cause hail to fall are called
hailstorms. Thunderstorms may line up in a series or rainband, known as a squall line. Strong or severe
thunderstorms may rotate, known as supercells. While most thunderstorms move with the mean wind
flow through the layer of the troposphere that they occupy, vertical wind shear causes a deviation in
their course at a right angle to the wind shear direction.
Thunderstorms are the result of strong vertical movements in the atmosphere and usually occur
in the onset of the rainy season usually May or June each year in the Philippines. They require warm,
moist air, which when lifted will release enough latent heat to provide the buoyancy needed to maintain
its upward motion. Accordingly, they generally occur in warm air masses that have become unstable
either through extreme low­pressure systems, surface heating, or forced ascent over mountains. Every
thunderstorm needs: Moisture to form clouds and rain; Unstable warm air that can relatively that can
rise rapidly, and a lift such as fronts, sea breezes, and mountains that are capable of lifting air to help
form thunderstorms.

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Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

How Thunderstorm Occurs?

Thunderstorm occurs when the super cooled water (cumulus clouds) is pushed by air current
(updraft). They can occur inside warm, moist air masses and at fronts. If this cloud reaches 5 miles
above sea level, the temperature become ­5oC causing the super cooled water to freeze, the water
drops will change into ice crystals. At this stage, the cumulus clouds will form into a cumulonimbus
clouds that can reach heights of over 20 km. Cloud water collects at the ice crystals, the drop grow
and gather more water form wet clouds. As the water freezes and the drops grow and break up in the
cloud, the cloud is charged with electricity.
The electric charge builds up in the cloud until air cannot stand the strain. Suddenly a blinding
flash of lightning surges through the air. The rain gushes down. Gusty winds blow out of the rain storm.
After a while, the rain stops, the cloud will go away and the sun shines again. Thunderstorms can
generally form and develop in any geographic location, perhaps most frequently within areas located at
mid­latitude when warm moist air collides with cooler air. Thunderstorms are responsible for the
development and formation of many severe weather phenomena. Thunderstorms, and the phenomena
that occur along with them, pose great hazards to populations and landscapes. Damage that results
from thunderstorms is mainly inflicted by downburst winds, large hailstones, and flash flooding caused
by heavy precipitation. Stronger thunderstorm cells are capable of producing tornadoes and
waterspouts. A 1953 study found that the average thunderstorm over several hours expends enough
energy to equal 50 A­bombs of the type that was dropped on Hiroshima, Japan during World War Two.

Life Cycle of a Thunderstorm

A. Cumulus stage.
The first stage of a thunderstorm is the cumulus stage, or developing stage. In this stage,
masses of moisture are lifted upwards into the atmosphere. The trigger for this lift can be insolation
heating the ground producing thermals, areas where two winds converge forcing air upwards, or
where winds blow over terrain of increasing elevation. The moisture rapidly cools into liquid drops
of water due to the cooler temperatures at high altitude, which appears as cumulus clouds. As the
water vapor condenses into liquid, latent heat is released, which warms the air, causing it to become
less dense than the surrounding dry air. The air tends to rise in an updraft through the process of
convection (hence the term convective precipitation). This creates a low­pressure zone beneath the
forming thunderstorm. In a typical thunderstorm, approximately 5×108 kg of water vapor is lifted
into the Earth's atmosphere.

B. Mature Stage.

In the mature stage of a thunderstorm, the warmed air continues to rise until it reaches even
warmer air and can rise no further. Often this 'cap' is the tropopause. The air is instead forced to
spread out, giving the storm a characteristic anvil shape. The resulting cloud is called
cumulonimbus incus. The water droplets coalesce into larger and heavier droplets and freeze to
become ice particles. As these fall they melt to become rain. If the updraft is strong enough, the
droplets are held aloft long enough to become so large they do not melt completely, and fall as
hail. While updrafts are still present, the falling rain creates downdrafts as well. The simultaneous
presence of both an updraft and downdrafts marks the mature stage of the storm, and produces
Cumulonimbus clouds. During this stage, considerable internal turbulence can occur in the storm
system, which sometimes manifests as strong winds, severe lightning, and even tornadoes.

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Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Figure 2. Life cycle of a thunderstorm in three different stages

Typically, if there is little wind shear, the storm will rapidly enter the dissipating stage and 'rain
itself out', but if there is sufficient change in wind speed and/or direction the downdraft will be separated
from the updraft, and the storm may become a supercell, and the mature stage can sustain itself for
several hours.

C. Dissipating Stage

In the dissipation stage, the thunderstorm is dominated by the downdraft. If atmospheric

conditions do not support super cellular development, this stage occurs rather quickly, approximately
20–30 minutes into the life of the thunderstorm. The downdraft will push down out of the thunderstorm,
hit the ground and spread out. This phenomenon is known as a downburst. The cool air carried to the
ground by the downdraft cuts off the inflow of the thunderstorm, the updraft disappears and the
thunderstorm will dissipate. Thunderstorms in an atmosphere with virtually no vertical wind shear
weaken as soon as they send out an outflow boundary in all directions, which then quickly cuts off its
inflow of relatively warm, moist air and kills the thunderstorm. The downdraft hitting the ground creates
an outflow boundary. This can cause downbursts, a potential hazardous condition for aircraft that fly
through it, as a substantial change in wind speed and direction occurs, resulting in decrease of lift of
the aircraft. The stronger the outflow boundary is, the stronger the resultant vertical wind shear
becomes.

Figure 3. Anvil shaped

thundercloud in the mature
stage over Swifts Creek,
Victoria

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 Hydrometeorology
Module 2 Lesson 5
Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Thunderstorm Anatomy

Thunderstorms can consist of just one convection cell, multiple convection cells, or even one extremely
large and powerful convection cell. Below is a description of three types of thunderstorms, classified
by their structure: single­cell, mulit­cell and supercell.

Single­cell Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms created by just one convection cell in the atmosphere
are called single­cell storms. Most of these are small, lasting only about an hour, and are also called
ordinary thunderstorms. These storms often form during summer and include towering cumulonimbus
clouds that can grow 12 kilometers high in the atmosphere. Rain and lightning are common. Sometimes
hail falls.

Multi­cell Thunderstorms: Some thunderstorms are made from many convection cells moving as a
single unit. These are called multi­cell thunderstorms. Often the convection cells are arranged as a
cluster, with each cell at a different stage of the thunderstorm cycle. Multi­cell storms along a cold or
warm front, where warm air is pushed high into the atmosphere above cold air, often form a line, called
a squall line. The squall line can be up to 600 miles (1000 km) long. Strong wind gusts often blow just
ahead of the storm.

Supercell Thunderstorms: Thunderstorms with deep, rotating updraft winds, called supercells, are
very large and last for hours releasing huge amounts of rain and sometimes even baseball­sized hail.
They include fast moving convection – air zooming upward at as much as 175 miles (280 km) per hour.
Rotation in supercells sometimes forms violent tornadoes, the largest and most damaging type, because
the storms are so long­lived. Several tornadoes can be produced from one supercell thunderstorm. And
clouds grow up to 18 km in the atmosphere. Supercells are the least common type of thunderstorm.

II. LOW PRESSURE AREA

Pressure plays a vital role in all weather systems. Pressure is the force of the air on a given
surface divided by the area of that surface. In most weather systems the air pressure is equal to the
weight of the air column divided by the area of the column. Pressure decreases rapidly with height,
halving about every 5.5 km (3.4 mi).

Sea­level pressure varies by only a few per cent. Large regions in the atmosphere that have
higher pressure than the surroundings are called high­pressure areas. Regions with lower pressure
than the surroundings are called low­pressure areas. Most storms occur in low­pressure areas.
Rapidly falling pressure usually means a storm is approaching, whereas rapidly rising pressure usually
indicates that skies will clear.

When you see a red capital letter "L" on a weather map, you're looking at a symbolic
representation of a low­pressure area, also known as a "low." A low is an area where air pressure is
lower than it is in the areas surrounding it. As a general rule of thumb, lows have a pressure of around
1,000 millibars (29.54 inches of mercury).
In order for a low to form, the flow of air must move from one place to another, decreasing the
air pressure over a certain spot. This happens when the atmosphere tries to even out a temperature
contrast, like that which exists at the boundary between cold and warm air masses. This is why low­
pressure areas are always accompanied by a warm front and cold front; the differing air masses are
responsible for creating the low center.

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Weather Disturbances & Variability
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Low Pressure Typically Equals Unsettled Weather

It's a general rule of meteorology that when air rises, it cools and condenses. This is because
the temperature is higher in the upper part of the atmosphere. As water vapor condenses, it creates
clouds, precipitation, and generally unsettled weather. Because air rises near areas of low pressure, this
type of weather often occurs in lows.
The kind of unsettled weather a location sees during the passage of a low­pressure
system depends on where it is relative to the accompanying warm and cold fronts.
Locations in front of a low center (out ahead of the warm front) typically see cool
temperatures and steady precipitation.

Locations to the south and east of a low center (a region known as the "warm sector")
will see warm, moist weather. Because winds flow counterclockwise around a low in the Northern
Hemisphere, winds in the warm sector are generally from the south, which results in milder air being
fed into the system. Showery precipitation and thunderstorms also occur here, but they are specifically
at the boundary of a warm sector and the leading edge of the cold front.
Locations behind or to the west of a low center will see cold, dry weather. This is
because the counterclockwise flow of winds around the low are from a northerly direction, suggesting
colder temperatures. It's also typical to see conditions clearing here as the colder, denser air is more
stable.
Generally, low pressure automatically means stormy weather, every low­pressure area
is unique. For instance, mild or extreme weather conditions develop based on the strength of the low­
pressure system. Some lows are weak and only produce light rain and moderate temperatures, while
others may be strong enough to produce severe thunderstorms, tornadoes, or a major winter storm. If
a low is unusually intense, it can even take on the characteristics of a hurricane.
Sometimes surface lows can extend upward into the middle layers of the atmosphere. When
this happens, they are known as "troughs." Troughs are long areas of low pressure that can also lead
to weather events like rain and wind. (Means, 2020)

Figure 4. A Low pressure system

Source: NOAA Environmental Visualization Lab

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Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Figure 5. A
satellite image of
an LPA inside PAR
monitored by
PAGASA last July
13, 2018. Source:
PAGASA.

Figure 6. A low
pressure system
with its symbols
Low “L” and High
“H”.
Source: Sosnowski,
2020

Figure 7. A low
pressure area
lead to stormy
weather
Source:
Sosnowski,
2020

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Module 2 Lesson 5
Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

To simplify them all, a low pressure area is a storm. Hurricanes and large­scale rain and
snow events (blizzards and nor'easters) in the winter are examples of storms. Thunderstorms, including
tornadoes, are examples of small­scale low pressure areas.
On a weather map, low pressure areas are label with an "L" and high pressure areas are labeled
with an "H."

Formation of a Low Pressure Area

1. A low pressure area usually begins to form as air from two regions collides and is forced upward.
2. The rising air creates a giant vacuum effect. Hence, a zone of low pressure is produced with
the lowest pressure near the center of the storm.
3. As a storm approaches a particular area, the barometric pressure will lower.
4. As the air in the storm rises, it cools.
5. As the air cools, moisture within the air condenses to form clouds and rain and snow.
6. Falling barometric pressure, or the approach of a low pressure area, is often an indicator of
rain, ice and snow arriving soon.
7. As the amount of rising air increases, air must rush in from the sides to replace the rising air
near the center of the storm.
8. The more violent the rising air near the center, the faster the air must rush in from the sides.
This is what sometimes creates strong winds.
9. The rotation of the Earth creates a force that causes the rushing air coming in from the sides
to spin counterclockwise in the Northern Hemisphere and clockwise in the Southern
Hemisphere.

III. TROPICAL CYCLONES

Oceans and seas have great influence on the weather of continental masses. A large portion of
the solar energy reaching the sea­surface is expended in the process of evaporation. These water
evaporated from the sea/ocean is carried up into the atmosphere and condenses, forming clouds from
which all forms of precipitation result. Sometimes, intense cyclonic circulations occur which is what we
call the tropical cyclones.

Tropical cyclones are warm­core low pressure systems associated with a spiral
inflow of mass at the bottom level and spiral outflow at the top level. They always form over
oceans where sea surface temperature, also air temperatures are greater than 26°C. The air
accumulates large amounts of sensible and latent heat as it spirals towards the center. It receives this
heat from the sea and the exchange can occur rapidly, because of the large amount of spray thrown
into the air by the wind. The energy of the tropical cyclone is thus derived from the massive liberation
of the latent heat of condensation.
Tropical cyclone is defined as a non­frontal, synoptic­scale cyclone developing over
tropical and sub­tropical waters at any level and having a definitely organized circulation.
In other parts of the world, these are referred to as hurricanes, typhoons or simply tropical
cyclones depending on the region. In the North Atlantic, Eastern North Pacific and South Pacific Ocean,
they are called "hurricanes". In the bay of Bengal, Arabian Sea and Western South Indian Ocean, the
name is "cyclonic". In the eastern part of the Southern Indian Ocean, it is "willy­willy", and in the
Western North Pacific Ocean, they are called "typhoons".
Tropical cyclones can only form over oceans of the world except in the South Atlantic Ocean
and the south eastern Pacific where a tropical cyclone could never be formed due to the cooler sea
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Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

surface temperature and higher vertical wind shears. They develop at latitudes usually greater than 5°
from the equator. They reach their greatest intensity while located over warm tropical water. As soon
as they move inland, they begin to weaken, but often not before they have caused great destruction.

The Philippines is prone to tropical cyclones due to its geographical location which
generally produce heavy rains and flooding of large areas and also strong winds which result in
heavy casualties to human life and destructions to crops and properties. Thus, it is of utmost
importance to have sufficient knowledge on such maritime phenomena for beneficial purposes.

Formation of a Tropical Cyclone

The following are the necessary requirements established for tropical cyclone formation:
1. Sufficiently large ocean areas with a surface temperature of more than 26°C or 27°C that air
lifted from the lowest atmospheric layers and expanded moist adiabatically remain considerably
warmer than the surrounding undisturbed atmosphere at least up to a level of about 40,000
feet.
2. Initial disturbances from which storms later developed may be detected within 5° of latitude
of the equator, but these disturbances do not intensify into typhoons or hurricanes until they
are more than 5° of latitude from the equator (since the value of the coriolis parameter should
be larger than a certain minimum value.
3. Weak vertical wind shear in the basic current so in those areas of small mean zonal­wind shear
are also areas of active storm formation.
4. A pre­existing low level disturbance over a warm ocean area and a region of upper­level
divergence or outflow above the surface disturbance (though not all these areas of organized
convective activity develop into tropical cyclones or greater intensity).
Several theories have been formulated on the formation of tropical cyclones. These are the
"convective theory" and the "frontal" or "counter­current" theory.
According to the convective theory, a large mass of air becomes convectively unstable and moist
compared with its surroundings, which results in an upward motion of air. The air from the surroundings
tend toward the low pressure area formed, so that, a cyclonic circulation is formed. The combined
effects of the earth's rotation and the centrifugal force, retards the movements of air towards the center
causing further pressure fall. The process continues until a vigorous cyclonic wind system is developed.
Likewise, the outward flow of air from the center at high levels also makes the pressure lower.
The frontal theory indicates that many tropical cyclones form along the front between the trade
winds and the equatorial air in the doldrums. Winds develop along this front and when conditions are
favorable, forms into tropical cyclones. The convergence of the two air masses results in the upward
motions which in addition to the deflective effect of the earth's rotation, centrifugal force, and
divergence at the upper levels results in allow pressure area with a spiral circulation toward the center.

Likewise, as already listed above, tropical cyclones develop over sea surfaces having at least 26°C.
Though these heat sources are not sufficient to start a hurricane going, the heat of condensation
supports the process once started. Tropical cyclones are also generated in disturbances along the
Intertropical Convergence Zone, on traverse waves or under superimposed upper disturbances. But the
upper divergence must exceed low­level convergence in order to cause surface pressures to decrease
(which is called deepening).
In general, therefore, development of a tropical cyclone takes place when there is proper
combination of circulation, divergence and convergence which is maintained over a considerable period
of time on a proper scale.
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Weather Disturbances & Variability
Engr. S. Balsote, 08/2020

Areas of Formation of Tropical Cyclones

The following shows the regions of the world where tropical cyclones form:
1. Tropical North Atlantic Ocean
2. East of the Lesser Antilles and the Caribbean, east of 70°W during the months of July to October
3. North of the West Indies in June to October
4. Western Caribbean during the months of June and late September to early November
5. Gulf of Mexico during the months of June to November
6. Western North Pacific Ocean, including the Philippines, during the months of May to November,
but storms sometimes occur in all months.
7. North Pacific off the West Coast of Central America during the months of June to October.
8. Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea from May to June and October to November.
9. South Pacific Ocean, West of 140°W from December to April.
10. South Indian Ocean from December to April.
11. Northwestern Coast of Australia during the months of November to April
12. West of 90°E from November to May

Tropical cyclones form over oceans of the World except in the South Atlantic Ocean and in the South
eastern Pacific. During the Southern Hemisphere Summer, the intertropical front in these areas moves
only a degree or so south of the equator which is not far enough for the Coriolis force to become
effective. Tropical cyclones are very rare within 5° latitude of the equator.
In the Pacific Ocean, the tropical cyclones that form normally move slowly towards the west or west
northwest, threatening the Philippines. They usually move at an average speed of 19 kilometers per
hour, often guided by the main airstream above them. Those that form in the South China Sea move
generally northward or toward the northeast which also affects the Philippines.

Frequencies of tropical cyclones per 10 years in the different areas where tropical cyclones are
formed:
 North Atlantic Ocean ­ 73
 North Pacific, off West Coast of Mexico ­ 57
 North Pacific Ocean, west of 170°E ­ 211
 North Indian Ocean, Bay of Bengal ­ 60
 North Indian Ocean, Arabian Sea ­ 15
 South Indian Ocean, west of 90°E ­ 61
 South Indian Ocean, Northwestern Australia ­ 9
 Life History of Tropical Cyclone
Tropical cyclones undergo constant metamorphosis from birth through maturity to decay. They last
for about six days, in general, before they enter the land or reach sub­tropical latitudes. However, some
can be detected only a few hours or perhaps a day or two, while others are observed as long as a
fortnight.

The four stages of the life history of a cyclone are:

1. Formative Stage. The incipient stage when the tropical cyclone form in waves and in shear
lines of pre­existing disturbances and winds usually remain below the typhoon force.
2. Immature Stage. The deepening stage of the cyclone during which it continues to deepen
until the lowest central pressure and the maximum wind intensity are reached. However,

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intensification does not usually takes place since some have been known to die down even
though the winds has attained typhoon force.
3. Mature Stage. The stage of maturity of the tropical cyclones where the areas of circulation
expands while the surface pressure no longer falls and no increase in maximum winds speed
can be observed which may last for a week.
4. Decaying Stage. The dissipating stage of the tropical cyclone where the surface pressure rises
and the area affected by the cyclones diminishes in size as it recurves or dissipate due to friction
and lack of moisture over continents or when colder and drier air enters through when they go
poleward.

Classification of Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones derive their energy from the latent heat of condensation which made them
exist only over the oceans and die out rapidly on land. One of its distinguishing features is its having a
central sea­level pressure of 900 mb or lower and surface winds often exceeding 100 knots. They reach
their greatest intensity while located over warm tropical waters and they begin to weaken as they move
inland. The intensity of tropical cyclones vary, thus, we can classify them based upon their degree of
intensity.
The classification of tropical cyclones according to the strength of the associated windsas
adopted by PAGASA as of 01 May 2015 are as follows:

1. TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) ­ a tropical cyclone with maximum sustained winds of up to

61 kilometers per hour (kph) or less than 33 nautical miles per hour (knots) .
2. TROPICAL STORM (TS) ­ a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 62 to 88 kph or 34
­ 47 knots.
3. SEVERE TROPICAL STORM (STS), a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 89 to 117
kph or 48 ­ 63 knots.
4. TYPHOON (TY) ­ a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed of 118 to 220 kph or 64 ­ 120
knots.
5. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) ­ a tropical cyclone with maximum wind speed exceeding 220 kph
or more than 120 knots.

Features of a Tropical Cyclone

The atmospheric pressure decrease from the periphery of the circulation towards the center
of the eye and reaches its lowest value in the "eye" itself. On the other hand, as the wind blows
inward, its speed increases and reaches its maximum value just outside of the "eye" near the surface
of the ocean, the winds converge towards the center. The converging air is forced upward carrying with
it moisture in the form of water vapor. As the air rises, the water vapor it contains cools by expansion
and eventually condenses to form clouds. The condensation of the water vapor causes the release of
the latent heat trapped within it. The latent heat released increases the buoyancy of the cloud and
provides the energy for the sustenance of the tropical cyclone circulation. In view of the vigorous ascent
of air, the clouds formed around the "eye" have large vertical extent with tops reaching beyond 12
kilometers above the surface. Such massive cloud formation produces heavy rains with large­sized
raindrops.
At the top of the storm system, the rising warm air is transported outward and form an anvil­
shaped cloud called "cumulonimbus". Further away from the center, at the tip the air becomes colder
and dry and starts "sinking" downward. In this area, which is outside the storm system, the weather is
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abnormally good. This is the basis for the saying "lull before the storm" which many perceptive people
notice before the arrival of the storm.

Effects of a Tropical Cyclone

Tropical cyclone constitutes one of the most destructive natural disasters that affects many
countries around the globe and exacts tremendous annual losses in lives and property. Its impact is
greatest over the coastal areas, which bear the brunt of the strong surface winds, squalls, induced
tornadoes, and flooding from heavy rains, rather than strong winds, that cause the greatest loss in lives
and destruction to property in coastal areas.
1. Strong winds. A squall is defined as an
event in which the surface wind increases
in magnitude above the mean by factors
of 1.2 to 1.6 or higher and is maintained
over a time interval of several minutes to
one half hour. The spatial scales would be
roughly 2 to 10 km. The increase in wind
may occur suddenly or gradually. These
development near landfall lead to
unexpectedly large damage.

2. Tornadoes. Tornadoes are tropical

cyclone spawned which are to expected
for about half of the storms of tropical
storm intensity. These are heavily
concentrated in the right front quadrant of
the storm (relative to the track) in regions
where the air has had a relatively short
trajectory over land. These form in
conjunction with strong convection.

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3. Rainfall and Flooding. Rainfall

associated with tropical cyclones is both
beneficial and harmful. Although the
rains contribute to the water needs of the
areas traversed by the cyclones, the
rains are harmful when the amount is so
large as to cause flooding.

4. Storm Surge. The storm surge is an

abnormal rise of water due to a tropical
cyclone and it is an oceanic event
responding to meteorological driving
forces. Potentially disastrous surges
occur along coasts with low­lying terrain
that allows inland inundation, or across
inland water bodies such as bays,
estuaries, lakes and rivers. For riverine
situations, the surge is sea water moving
up the river. A fresh water flooding
moving down a river due to rain
generally occurs days after a storm event
and is not considered a storm surge. For
a typical storm, the surge affects about
160 km of coastline for a period of
several hours.

Oceanic Response to Tropical Cyclones

Tropical cyclones owe their existence to the release of latent heat in intense convection. This
convection depends on eddy transfers of heat, moisture and momentum at the sea surface and radiative
effects, as well as on the tropical­cyclone­scale circulation itself.
The relationship between the ocean and the atmosphere during tropical cyclone conditions is
not a one­way interaction. The stress exerted by strong winds on the surface water and the negative
pressure anomaly leads to a rise of mean sea level under the storm of about 1 cm per mb of pressure
drop. This mound of water follows the storm and contributes to the storm surge when the hurricane
makes landfall. The strong winds generate surface waves with amplitudes of 20 m or more. The curl of
the stress generates divergence in the upper layer of the ocean, producing regions of upwelling and
downwelling. Turbulence is also generated in the ocean by the wind stress and this turbulence mixes
warm surface waters with deeper cooler water. The combination of upwelling and vertical mixing
typically produces a decrease in the surface ocean temperature of 1­3°C and may occasionally produce
a decrease as large as 5°C which affects the intensity of slow­moving or stationary storms by reducing
evaporation into the atmosphere.

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The ocean is divided into an upper layer of constant (in the vertical) temperature and a lower layer in
which the temperature decreases with depth. The upper layer is termed the mixed layer because the
constant temperature in the vertical is maintained by vertical mixing. Temperature across the interface
(thermocline) between the mixed layer and the lower layer is depicted as discontinuous.
The response of the ocean to the approaching storm. As the storm approaches, the increasing
winds produce stronger turbulence and a deepening and slight cooling of the mixed layer. Outside the
radius of maximum wind, the anticyclonic relative vorticity is associated with a stress field with negative
curl. Convergence is induced in the mixed layer and downwelling occurs, which also acts to deepen the
mixed layer. As the radius of maximum winds passes, the vorticity becomes strongly positive, and a
positive stress curl induces horizontal divergence of mixed­layer water and a strong upwelling. Behind
the storm, the reverse sequence of events occurs. In addition, imbalances between the current velocities
and pressure field in the ocean lead to eddies which between the current velocities and pressure field
in the ocean lead to eddies which persists far behind the storm. Since the eddy circulations in the ocean
which are induced by tropical cyclones and the sea­surface temperature decreases may persist for many
days after a storm's passage, the behavior of subsequent storms which cross the modified ocean surface
may be affected, although the small area of significant sea surface temperature decreases makes a
large influence unlikely.
In addition to the cooling of the ocean by upwelling and mixing, there are four other processes
that may also affect the oceanic temperature. These include the following:

1. Radiation
2. Cooling by Precipitation
3. Sensible Heat Flux to the Atmosphere
4. Latent Heat Flux to the Atmosphere
Radiative effects are negligible near the center because of the presence of thick, multilevel clouds
which reflect most of the incoming short­wave radiation while blocking long wave radiation loss.

As tropical storms make landfall, the combined action of the pressure anomaly and the wind stress
produces the most destructive aspect of the hurricane to coastal regions ­ the storm surge. Storm surge
is the abnormal rise in sea level at the coast during the passage of an intense tropical cyclone (TC),
usually land falling or touching land. It is best described as the highest water level rise as the peak of
the storm surges usually coincides with the time of passage of typhoon across a coastline. The exact
distribution and amplitude of the storm surge depend in a complicated way on the bottom topography
as well as the size, intensity, direction and speed of movement of the tropical cyclone. In addition to
the relatively simple barotropic and baroclinic responses that are produced over the open ocean, rapidly
decreasing depths induce nonlinear responses as the perturbation depths become large compared to
the mean depth. Peninsulas and islands provide walls to reflect, refract and channel waves. Flooding of
low­lying areas expands the area of the ocean and reduces the surge height in the waters adjacent to
the coast.

Storm Swell
Storm swell is an indicator of an approaching tropical cyclone. The appearance of a swell of
a particular type may give quite reliable indications of a tropical storm as much as 805 to 1610 kilometers
or more distant. The height of the waves from which swell develop is determined by the fetch or water
distance over which the wind has blown without significant deviation in direction. Based on researches,
the maximum height of a wave as a function of fetch is H = 1/3 (F)1/2 ; where H is in meters, and F is
in kilometers.

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The magnitude of waves is dependent not only upon the fetch, but also upon the wind velocity.
Over oceanic areas with 600 ­ 1000 miles or more of sea room, waves 35­40 feet high are developed
in ordinary storms and in more intense storms may exceed 45 feet. Based on some studies, the quotient
obtained by dividing the wind velocity (probably average for hour) in miles per hour by 2.05 represents
the average height in feet of waves developed by the wind. This should be used with caution and only
as an approximation. Since there are always other factors to be taken into consideration, and a wind,
constant in speed and direction (in a hurricane at least), does not act on a wave for any great length of
time. The breaking wave or swell is one of the most destructive elements of tropical cyclone, since a
cubic yard of water weighs 1500 pounds and waves moving forward many feet per second may be very
destructive to beaches and harbor facilities, especially when they contain debris such as tree trunks and
heavy beams.
During the occurrence of a tropical cyclone it was observed that the wind energy is concentrated
in the storm causing a system of swell waves to spread out of the storm area. The swell moves with a
speed of three or four times greater than the speed of the storm center. Now the swell generated in
the rear right quadrant will move forward in the direction of the movement of the storm. These waves
will be under the influence of the strong winds for a long time, and we say that the fetch is large. To
the left of the storm track, the waves are under the influence of the wind for a relatively short time,
and we say that the fetch is small. The energy that goes into the swell increases with fetch, with result
that the swell generated on the right of the storm becomes prominent. This swell travels a long way, it
may be observed as far as 1000 miles away from the center of the storm, and this provides a warning.
The direction from which the swell arrives points toward the place where the swell was generated. The
warning is, however, not very precise, for it provides no information on the behavior of the storm since
the swell left it. Nevertheless, the arrival of the swell is a useful early alert to the man on the bridge,
the harbor master, and the beach dweller.

Energetics

The main energy source of a tropical cyclone is water vapor which is abundant in the
oceans and seas. When the sun heats up the earth surface, water vapor evaporates into the atmosphere
and condenses into water droplets, a great amount of heat energy, which is locked up in the water
vapor, is released. This process is known as condensation. It is the reverse process of evaporation,
which requires considerable amount of heat to evaporate water.

The heat energy absorbed by water during the process of evaporation is locked in the water
and is released only when the same amount of water condenses back into the liquid state.
Through this process, an average­sized typhoon will get an energy supply in one day equivalent
to the energy release by 40,000 hydrogen bombs. By comparison, the energy released by one hydrogen
is very small against the energy of a typhoon in one day.
Thus, the typhoon will dissipate once the supply of water vapor is cut­off. This is manifested
when a typhoon from the ocean passes over land. While still in the water areas, the typhoon is strongest,
but its strong winds will normally diminish when it is over land. When it moves over mountains, the
effect of topography further retards the air strength.
In latter information, we can concede that tropical cyclone is closely related to ocean. There is
a close link between the two, likewise with air and the ocean. There are conditions necessary for the
development of tropical cyclone, which greatly depends on the ocean:

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The instability of the lower atmospheric layers.

Simultaneous with the warming of water masses along their way from east to west in the
individual oceans within west Pacific regions heating, and, owing to the strong evaporation, an increase
in water vapor in the lower atmosphere occur, both of which contribute to the instability of the
atmospheric layers.

The reduced air friction over the ocean.

This is important in as much as no tropical cyclone develop over land and in coastal vicinities.
The two other conditions were being mentioned in the theories of formation. The interaction
between air and ocean happens at the sea surface, this interface between the two is not a rigid boundary
between the fluid and gaseous envelopes of the earth. It is a transfer station of the exchange of matter
and energy. When favorable conditions exist the interaction leads to the formation of the most
destructive phenomenon, tropical cyclone formation. Before the occurrence of this phenomenon, storm
swell appears as an indication that there is an approaching tropical disturbance. During the passage,
storm surge is generated. So all that energy content of the tropical cyclone is from the ocean, and the
occurrence of one is highly impossible without the existence of the other.

Figure 8. Forecast tropical cyclone frequency

Source: http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/information/about-tropical-cyclone

Typhoons in the Philippines

In the Philippines, tropical cyclones (typhoons) are called “bagyo”. Tropical cyclones entering
the Philippine area of responsibility (PAR) are given a local name by the Philippine Atmospheric,
Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA), which also raises public storm signal

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warnings (PSWS) as deemed necessary. Around 19 tropical cyclones or storms enter the Philippine
Area of Responsibility (PAR) in a typical year and of these usually 6 to 9 make landfall.
Super typhoon Yolanda (Haiyan), which struck six central Philippine islands on Nov. 8, 2013,
was one of the strongest storms on record. It also appears to be the deadliest natural disaster ever to
hit the country. The winds are of up to 320 km/h (199mph). Although not the most powerful storm to
have ever formed in recorded history, it could be the strongest at the time of landfall.
One of the deadliest tropical cyclone to impact the Philippines was Tropical Storm Thelma
(Uring) which in 1991 caused floods that killed thousands of people. The wettest known tropical cyclone
to impact the archipelago was the July 14–18, 1911 cyclone which dropped over 2,210 millimetres (87
in) of rainfall within a 3 day, 15 hour period in Baguio City. Tropical cyclones usually account for at least
30 percent of the annual rainfall in the northern Philippines while being responsible for less than 10
percent of the annual rainfall in the southern islands.
The term bagyo, a Filipino word meaning typhoon arose after a 1911 storm in the city of Baguio
had a record rainfall of 46 inches within a 24­hour period.
Typhoons have a
great influence on the climate
and weather conditions of the
Philippines. A great portion of
the rainfall, humidity and
cloudiness are due to the
influence of typhoons. They
generally originate in the
region of the Marianas and
Caroline Islands of the Pacific
Ocean which have the same
latitudinal location as
Mindanao. Their movements
follow a north­westerly
direction, sparing Mindanao Figure 9. Satellite images show the extent of the storm as it approached
from being directly hit by the Philippines on 7 November. At times it stretched 600km (372 miles)
across. If the same storm was placed over a map of Europe it would
majority of the typhoons that
stretch from London to Berlin
cross the country. This makes Source: https://www.bbc.com/news/world­24866265
the southern Philippines very
desirable for agriculture and industrial development.

IV. TORNADOES AND WATERSPOUTS

Introduction

A tornado is a violent, dangerous, rotating column of air in contact with both the surface of the
earth and a cumulonimbus cloud (otherwise known as a thundercloud) or, in rare cases, the base of a
cumulus cloud. Tornadoes come in many sizes but are typically in the form of a visible condensation
funnel, whose narrow end touches the earth and is often encircled by a cloud of debris and dust. Most
tornadoes have wind speeds between 40 and 110 mph (64 and 180 km/h), are approximately 250 feet
(76 m) across, and travel a few miles (several kilometers) before dissipating. Some attain wind speeds
of more than 300 mph (480 km/h), stretch more than one mile (1.6 km) across, and stay on the ground
for dozens of miles (more than 100 km).

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Waterspouts have similar characteristics as

tornadoes, characterized by a spiralling funnel­shaped wind
current that form over bodies of water, connecting to large The F5 tornado that struck Manitoba in 2007

Cumulonimbus clouds. Waterspouts are generally classified

as forms of tornadoes, or more specifically, non­supercelled
tornadoes that develop over large bodies of water. These
spiralling columns of air are frequently developed within
tropical areas close to the equator, but are less common
within areas of high latitude.

EXTREME WEATHER EVENTS AND WEATHER RELATED NATURAL

DISASTERS

The Philippines being an archipelago is very susceptible and vulnerable to the ill­effects of
weather related hazards. Extreme weather events like tropical cyclones and monsoon rains have
triggered hazards such as floods and likewise the El Niño and La Niña phenomenon has resulted to
extreme drought and prolonged heavy rainfall.
Changing weather patterns and weather related occurrence such as increased incidence of
heavy precipitation in some locales can lead to disasters. In the Philippines, heavy precipitation from
tropical storms is a perennial and increasing concern. These weather events often times lead to disaster
e.g. loss of life, properties, and damage to infrastructure not to mention its effects to health, economy
and increased poverty. Such calamities also resulted to environmental degradation.
The impacts of natural disasters on agriculture, food security and the natural resources is shown
in figure 10 below.

Figure 10. Framework of Analysis on the Impacts of Natural Disasters on Agriculture, Food
Security, and the Natural Resources and Environment (NRE)
Source: Israel and Briones, 2013
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VI. FLOODS

Introduction
Philippines has a well­defined wet season added with other precipitation­producing weather
phenomena: tropical cyclones, thunderstorms, the ITCZ, frontal passages, etc. all these can generate
large amounts of precipitation. In combination with each other or, in particular with the monsoon, these
phenomena are capable of bringing intense and excessive precipitation. Under certain conditions, a
surfeit of rainfall results in a potentially disastrous phenomenon ­ flood.

Floods are the most common and widespread of all weather­related natural disasters. Damaging
flooding may happen with only a few inches of water, or it may cover a house to the rooftop. Floods
can occur within minutes or over a long period, and can last days, weeks, or longer.

Definition and Nature

A layman's conception is often an over­simplification. The Manual of Operational Procedures on

Flood Forecasting and Warning states:

"From a strict hydrological sense, flood is defined as a rise, usually brief, in the water level in a stream
to a peak from which the water level recedes at a slower rate (UNESCO­WMO 1974). The episodic
behavior of a river that may be considered flood is then termed "flood event" (Linsley, 1942) which is
described as a flow of water in a stream constituting a distinct progressive rise, culminating in a crest,
together with the recession that follows the crest (Linsley, 1942)."
From the foregoing technical definition, flood simply denotes a progressive abnormal increase
in the elevation of the surface level of streamfiow until it reaches a maximum height from which the
level slowly drops to what is its normal level. The sequence described all takes place within a certain
period of time.
The definition merely describes a characteristic behavior. It does not include the element of
"flooding" or inundation as implied by the popular notion of flood. The technical definition is rather
inadequate. Thus, considering the intents and purposes of flood forecasting and warning, the definition
seems rather restrictive in its connotation for the public.
Hence, for operational purposes, the Flood Forecasting Branch, the hydrological service of
PAGASA has adopted a more extensive definition.
Flood is "an abnormal progressive rise in the water level of a stream that may result
in the over­flowing by the water of the normal confines of the stream with the subsequent
inundation of areas which are not normally submerged".
The popular or layman's idea of flood is, in the strictest sense, the process of inundation or the
coverage by water of areas not normally submerged. Inundation is due to water overflowing from
streams and other bodies of water as well as by the accumulation of rainwater by drainage.

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Flood Causes

Flood causes could be natural or artificial as shown on the table below.

NATURAL ARTIFICIAL

Meteorological Events Blasting

­ an intense and prolonged rainfall ­ causes landslides in the slopes of hills
spells and mountains which may result in the
­ unusually high coastal and estuarine waters unintentional damming of rivers and streams
due to storm surges, seiches, etc.
Construction of temporary dams
Seismic Activities ­ produces an impediment to the flow
­ tsunamis (seismic sea waves) of a river or stream which then results
­ sinking of land due to earthquakes in an overflow
reduces the elevation of land areas
­ uplifting of lake and river beds from seismic Failure of hydraulic and other
causes sometime results in the overflowing of control structures
these bodies of water ­ accidents like the breaking of a dike
result in the entry of an enormous
Atronomically­Influenced quantity of water in a protected area
Phenomena
Mismanagement of hydraulic
­ high tides coinciding with the
structures
occurrence of heavy rainfall
­ may necessitate an untimely and
sudden release of large amounts of
excess water
Denudation of forest and
watershed areas
­ alter the ecological system in a
river basin will have an impact on
the hydrology of the catchment

FLOOD TYPES

Minor Flooding
­ Inundation may or may not be due to overbanking
­ When there is no bank overflow, flooding is simply due to the accumulation of excessive surface run­
off in low lying flat areas
­ Floodwaters are usually confined to the flood plain of the river along the channel, on random low­lying
areas and depressions in the terrain
­ Floodwater is usually shallow and there may not be a perceptible flow

Major Flooding

­ Flooding is caused by the over­flowing of rivers and lakes; by serious breaks in dikes, levees, dams
and other protective structures; by uncontrollable releases of impounded water in reservoirs and by the
accumulation of excessive runoff
­ Floodwaters cover a wide contiguous area and spread rapidly to adjoining areas of relatively lower
elevation
­ Flooding is relatively deep in most parts of the stricken areas
­ There is a highly perceptible current as the flood spreads to other areas

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Flash Flood
While floods take some time, usually
from 12 to 24 hours or even longer, to develop
after the occurrence of intense rainfall, there is
a particular type which develops after no more
than six hours and, frequently, after an even
less time. These are what are known as "flash
floods".
Flash floods develop in hilly and
mountainous terrains where the slope of the
river is rather steep. The rapid development of
the flood is due to the extremely short
concentration time of the drainage catchment. This means that precipitation falling on a point in the
catchment farthest from the river takes
only a short time to reach the river Figure 11. Flash Flood soak Manila last June 2015
Source: https://news.abs­cbn.com/nation/metro­manila
channel and become part of streamflow.
Thus, the amount of streamflow rapidly increases and, consequently, the rise in water level. When the
flow capacity of the stream is exceeded, the channel overflows and the result is a flash flood.

Cascading Effects
Floods are among the most destructive calamities man has to cope with. Even the most minor
flooding poses some inconveniences. A really big flood can result in millions even billions of pesos of
damages to roads and bridges, buildings and other economic infrastructure, in the loss of agricultural
crops and livestock, loss of productivity in industry, commerce and trade. To this is added the
incalculable loss of human lives directly attributable to floods as well as the hardship and attendant
socioeconomic problems of forced human displacement and the emotional impact on those affected by
floods

Aside from the direct damages brought

by a flood there are also those cascading effects
which follow in the wake of the calamity. Among
the immediate problems caused by flood are the
lack of basic utilities and essential necessities,
particularly, food and potable water. Flood also
disrupts the sanitary regime in a community. This
almost always results in the contamination of the
water supply. Thus, in a flood­stricken area an
epidemic of gastro­intestinal diseases frequently
breaks out. Respiratory ailments due to exposure
are also quite common.

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Monitoring and Prediction:

For obviously practical reasons, man has always
preferred a riverine environment. Almost always naturally fertile
and, therefore, able to provide him with an abundance of his
needs, flood plains have always attracted man as a place to settle
down. The river or a lake, in addition to being a source of his
livelihood, also serves as a convenient means of communications,
an avenue for trade and commerce.
However, a river is not always placid, serenely flowing
along. It has its moods. And it changes its moods, quite regularly.
When it does, man comes face to face with the phenomenon of
the flood.
But man is also a resourceful creature. Knowing that he cannot prevent the recurrence of floods
and because he has to live with it, man has learned to cope. He tried to understand the nature, behavior
and the causes of floods.
In some primitive ways, he had learned to relate the vagaries of the weather to the behavior of
the river. In doing so, he established a "forecasting procedure" which has persisted up to our times and
which remains practically unchanged.

Modern flood forecasting is now based on the standard procedure of monitoring and analyzing
the hydrological and meteorological conditions in a river basin. While the tools and methods of
monitoring may have been modernized with the use of sensitive, telemeterized gauging instruments to
effect better observation and faster transmission of data, it is still basically an attempt to paint a bread
picture of what is currently happening, hydrologically and meteorologically, in a river basin.
The simple method of associating the weather to the behavior of the river has given way to the
more modern sophisticated analytical methods aided by the computerized flood forecasting models.
With further evaluation of the results of the various analysis, hydrologists are able to come up with a
prediction of the future state of the river.
If anything new is added to modern flood forecasting, it is the more extensive reliance of
hydrologists on the scientific principles of hydrology rather than on mere intuition

Flood Forecast

The preparation, issuance and dissemination of an adequate and timely warning is the ultimate
purpose of flood forecasting. Timeliness is an essential requirement for a flood warning. A sufficient
lead time enables the ultimate user to take the necessary precautionary countermeasures.
The hydrological and meteorological conditions in a river basin and the consequent state of its river
system is never constant. The behavior of the river itself is the resultant of the interaction of all
hydrological processes and conditions in the river basin.
A flooding situation is not a daily occurrence. However, flood forecasting operations
must, of necessity, be a continuous activity. It is carried out from day to day even when the possibility
of a flood is highly improbable. This mode of operation enables flood forecasters to pinpoint the
beginning of a potential flood­generating situation.

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Like storm bulletins which are issued only during the presence of tropical cyclones, flood
forecast and warning bulletins are prepared only when a potential flooding situation is definitely present.
They are issued regularly at specified hours of the day for the duration of the flooding period until the
flood recedes or when all hazards and dangers associated with the phenomenon are no longer present.

The prevailing hydrometeorological situation in a given river basin defines the operational
environment under which flood forecasting and warning operations are carried out. Conviniently
categorized into:

Normal Situation Alert Phase Warning Phase

These operational situations are dependent for their implementation on the behavior and state
of the river with respect to a set of criteria known as flood assessment levels.
In practice, flood bulletins are issued as soon as the development of a flooding exists. The initial
bulletin serves merely to alert the people in the threatened basin to the possibility of a flood. It is never
intended to categorically state that there will be flooding but only of the possibility. The initial bulletin
is issued as soon as the operational situation passes fro the alert to the warning phase. The transition
from one operational status to another is based on the pre­determined criteria.

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A flood forecasting operation consists of the following:

Monitoring. This requires the collection, Analysis. The data are analysed and Preparation of the forecast and warning.
at regular interval, of the real­time data related to other available information such Upon receipt of the coded messages,
on rainfall, water level and other as storm data from radar and satellite they are decoded and each set of
information that affect the hydrological observation. The general objective here is observations is plotted in symbols or
condition of the river basin and the state to deduce the probable development in numbers on weather charts over the
of the river system. This provides a broad the hydrological situation in the river respective areas or regions.
picture of the current situation in a river basin in the near future. This part of the Observations made over land and sea
basin. operation involves a variety of are plotted on the surface or mean sea
hydrological analyses as well as the use of level charts which are prepared four
flood forecasting models to provide an times a day. Radiosonde, theodolite,
objective estimate of the fore­cast aircraft and satellite wind observations
situation. are plotted on upper level charts which
are prepared twice daily.

Dissemination of the flood

forecast and warning. Flood
forecasts are completed in time for
release at regular preset time of
issuance. Dissemination is made
through disseminating agencies
such as the OCD, DSWD, NDCC,
and thru the mass media,
particularly radio and television.

There are three categories of flood information intended for the general public. All are issued
under the general title of "Flood Bulletin". A distinct series of bulletins is issued for each threatened river
basin where the forecasting and warning service is already extended and operational. As already stated,
bulletins are issued only when conditions, i.e., there is a potential flooding situation, so warrant their
issuance.

When required, flood bulletins are prepared twice daily. They are completed and readied for
issuance and dissemination at 5:00 AM. and 5:00 PM, respectively, when it is deemed early enough to
provide vital information for concerned users to take necessary countermeasures before they leave for
work in the morning or before they retire at night.

A series of bulletins for a given affected river basin is ideally initiated by a Flood Outlook. As the
category implies, the bulletin merely states the present hydrological situation and alerts the people in a
basin to the possibility of a deteriorating condition, e.g., a gradual and continuous rise in the water
level.
Subsequent bulletins could be of any one of the three categories. Normally, for a given affected
basin, one bulletin is followed by another of the same in the next higher category depending on the

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development in the hydrological condition and the forecast situation. Hence, an Outlook is followed by
another Outlook or by a Flood Advisory; or by a Flood Warning.
When the situation had clearly reached its worst such that, at most the condition or, at best,
improvement can be expected, subsequent bulletins are of the same or by a next lower category than
the proceeding.

Countermeasure and Mitigation of Flood Damage

A "Flood Advisory" is a warning that states the imminence of a flood situation. Thus, it also
contains suggested necessary actions that may have to be taken by the residents and the community
in the threatened basin. An advisory is issued when the hydrological situation deteriorates further. It is
also issued when condition is definitely improving but caution is still necessary.
A "Flood Warning" is issued when a flooding situation is a definite reality at least 24 hours
before actual flooding occurs. This category is maintained in succeeding bulletins as long as the affected
areas are inundated and the attendant dangers are present. Aside from the forecast, a warning states
the necessary precautionary measures and actions residents as well as the affected community must
take.
Flood bulletins are specifically directed to the public. They are intended to apprise the people
in the threatened area of the present situation and of the expected development. It suggests the
appropriate actions the community may have to take to prevent or mitigate the disastrous effects of a
flood.
As in any kind of disaster, the best countermeasures for flood damage prevention and
mitigation are those which are community efforts.
Floods cannot be prevented. To a large extent, however, they can be controlled effectively.
By this is meant keeping the river from overflowing. There are a number of ways of accomplishing this
before and during a flood:
A. Increasing the flow capacity of a river by cleaning the channel of debris, by dredging, by
straightening of channels, etc.;
B. Construction of dikes and levees; and
C. Sandbagging during floods.

Individually and collectively, people in a flood­stricken area must take precautionary measures
to ensure personnel safety and health:
A. People, particularly children, should avoid wading in floodwaters.
B. Where houses are expected to be flooded, people should move to higher places.
C. Electrically operated appliances should be transferred to upper storeys of buildings.
D. When electrical fines and outlets will be submerged in floodwater, power should be switched
off.
E. Flood damage mitigation and protection is a concern not only during the disaster. It should be
practiced before, during and after the occurrence of a flood.

Basic Safety Rules

BEFORE THE FLOOD WHEN WARNED OF FLOOD

 Find out how often your location is likely to  Watch for rapidly rising flood waters.
be flooded.  Listen to your radio for emergency
 Know the flood warning system in your instructions.
community and be sure your family knows it.
 Keep informed of daily weather condition.
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 Designate an evacuation area for the family  If you find it necessary to evacuate, move to
and livestock. a safe area before access is cut off by flood
 Assign family members instructions and waters.
responsibilities according to an evacuation  Store drinking water in containers, water
plan. service may be interrupted.
 Keep a stock of food which requires little  Move household belongings to upper levels.
cooking and refrigeration; electric power may  Get livestock to higher ground.
be interrupted.  Turn off electricity at the main switch in the
 Keep a transistorized radio and flashlight with building before evacuating and also lock your
spare batteries, emergency cooking house.
equipment, candies, matches and first aid kit
handy in case of emergency.
 Store supplies and other household effects
above expected flood water level.
 Securely anchor weak dwellings and items.

DURING FLOOD AFTER THE FLOOD

 Avoid areas subject to sudden flooding.  Re­enter the dwellings with caution using
 Do not attempt to cross rivers of flowing flashlights, not lanterns or torchers.
streams where water is above the knee. Flammables may be inside.
 Beware of water­covered roads and bridges.  Be alert for fire hazards like broken wires.
 Avoid unnecessary exposure to the elements.  Do not eat food and drink water until they
 Do not go swimming or boating in swollen have been checked for flood water
rivers. contamination.
 Eat only well­cooked food. Protect leftovers  Report broken utility lines (electricity, water,
against contamination. gas and telephone) to appropriate agencies
 Drink clean or preferably boiled water ONLY. authorities.
 Do not turn on the main switch or use
appliances and other equipment until they
have been checked by a competent
electrician.
 Consult health authorities for immunization
requirements.
 Do not go in disaster areas. Your presence
might hamper rescue and other emergency
operations.
 Flood are aggravated by factors resulting from the carelessness and indifference of people
usually before floods occur.


THINGS ONE CAN DO TO MITIGATE FLOOD

 Regulate cutting of trees
 Report illegal loggers and kaingeros.
 Report illegal construction of fishponds and other establishments in waterways.
 Do not throw garbage in esteros and rivers.
 Help clean the neighborhood.
 Support community activities intended to lessen the occurrence of floods.
 Avoid throwing anything like plastic wrappers anywhere which may clog or block the
drainage system

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Socio­Economic Impacts of Flood

It is easy to say, and admittedly, floods have a tremendous socio­economic impact. Its main
effect is to retard development. A flood­stricken area must first be restored to normal before any
development activity can be carried out. Restoration can take time.

The social and emotional trauma inflicted on the people usually have a short­term inhibiting
effect on the community's drive. Hence, a little time can elapse before any concerted move for
normalization can take place.

Flood damage is incalculable. Assessment of damage attributable to floods alone is difficult.

Floods usually occur in association with other natural destructive phenomena such as tropical cyclones.
Except in rare cases such as the Angat River disaster of the late 70's where loss of lives and property is
identifiably due to the flood alone, it is difficult to segregate damages caused by a flood and those which
resulted from the associated phenomenon. Therefore, precise quantifiable damage is always difficult to
estimate. In addition to the directly determinable losses may be added the indirect potential losses.
These results from unproductivity in many areas ­ in business, in trade, in commerce, etc. All these
losses can wipe out whatever gains that may have been achieved in economic development.

VII. DROUGHT

Introduction
While it is relatively easy to define what a hurricane or earthquake is, defining a drought is more
subjective. Droughts do not have the immediate effects of floods, but sustained droughts can cause
economic stress throughout an area. The word "drought" has various meanings, depending on a
person's perspective. To a farmer, a drought is a period of moisture deficiency that affects the crops
under cultivation—even two weeks without rainfall can stress many crops during certain periods of the
growing cycle. To a meteorologist, a drought is a prolonged period when precipitation is less than
normal. To a water manager, a drought is a deficiency in water supply that affects water availability
and water quality. To a hydrologist, a drought is an extended period of decreased precipitation and
streamflow.

When does a drought begin?

The beginning of a drought is difficult to determine. Several weeks, months, or even years may
pass before people know that a drought is occurring. The end of a drought can occur as gradually as it
began. Dry periods can last for 10 years or more.
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Murcia and Binalbagan towns in Negros were the hardest hit, Drought­affected Philippine farmers.
with rice production losses pegged at P8.29 million and P7.13 Source: Cadiogan, 2016
million, respectively Source:https://www.philstar.com/nation/
/2019/03/31

The first evidence of drought usually is seen in records of rainfall. Within a short period of time,
the amount of moisture in soils can begin to decrease. The effects of a drought on flow in streams and
reservoirs may not be noticed for several weeks or months. Water levels in wells may not reflect a
shortage of rainfall for a year or more after a drought begins (Moreland, 1993).

Unlike with sudden weather events such as hurricanes, tornadoes, and thunderstorms, it is
often difficult to pinpoint when a drought has started or when it has ended. The initial effects
of a drought may be difficult to identify right away, so it may take weeks or months to determine that
a drought has started. The end of a drought is hard to identify for the same reason. A drought may last
for weeks, months, or even years. Sometimes, drought conditions can exist for a decade or more in a
region. The longer a drought lasts, the greater the harmful effects it has on people.

Effects of Drought
Droughts affect people in a several ways. Access to clean drinking water is essential for all life,
and sources of water may dwindle during a drought. Without the presence of water, people must bring
in enough water from elsewhere to survive. Water is also needed for crops to grow. When not enough
precipitation falls to naturally water crops, they must be watered by irrigation. Irrigation is possible only
when there is enough water in nearby rivers, lakes, or streams, or from groundwater. During a drought,
these water sources are diminished and may even dry up, preventing crops from being irrigated and
causing them to die off. (https://www.nationalgeographic.org/encyclopedia/drought/)

Drought can also affect the water level in wells. The water level in the aquifer that supplies a
well does not always stay the same. Droughts, seasonal variations in rainfall, and pumping affect the
height of the underground water levels. If a well is pumped at a faster rate than the aquifer around it
is recharged by precipitation or other underground flow, then water levels in the well can be
lowered. This can happen during drought, due to the extreme deficit of rain. The water level in a well
can also be lowered if other wells near it are withdrawing too much water.

Types of Drought
Droughts are categorized according to how they develop and what types of impact they have.
1. Meteorological drought. Meteorological drought occurs when a region’s rainfall falls far short of
expectations.
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2. Agricultural drought. When available water supplies are unable to meet the needs of crops or
livestock at a particular time, agricultural drought may ensue.
3. Hydrological drought. A hydrological drought occurs when a lack of rainfall persists long enough
to deplete surface water—rivers, reservoirs, or streams—and groundwater supplies.

Causes of Drought
A. Natural Causes.
Droughts have plagued humankind throughout much of our history, and until recently they were
often natural phenomena triggered by cyclical weather patterns, such as the amount of moisture and
heat in the air, land, and sea.
1. Fluctuating ocean and land temperatures. Ocean temperatures largely dictate global
weather patterns, including dry and wet conditions on land, and even tiny temperature
fluctuations can have huge ripple effects on climate systems. Research shows that dramatic and
prolonged temperature changes in the North Pacific and North Atlantic Oceans correspond
directly to extreme weather patterns on land, including persistent droughts in North America
and the eastern Mediterranean—the latter of which has been described as the region’s worst
drought in 900 years. Fluctuating ocean temperatures are also behind El Niño and La Niña
weather phenomena, with La Niña notorious for drying out the southern United States.
Meanwhile, hotter surface temperatures on land lead to greater evaporation of moisture from
the ground, which can increase the impact of drought.
2. Altered weather patterns. The distribution of rainfall around the world is also impacted by
how air circulates through the atmosphere. When there is an anomaly in surface temperatures—
particularly over the sea—air circulation patterns are altered, changing how and where
precipitation falls around the world. The new weather patterns can throw water supply and
demand out of sync, as is the case when earlier­than­usual snowmelt reduces the amount of
water available for crops in the summer.
3. Reduced soil moisture. Soil moisture can impact cloud formation, and hence precipitation.
When water from wet soil evaporates, it contributes to the formation of rain clouds, which
return the water back to the earth. When land is drier than usual, moisture still evaporates into
the atmosphere, but not at a volume adequate to form rain clouds. The land effectively bakes,
removing additional moisture and further exacerbating dry conditions.

B. Manmade Causes

While drought occurs naturally, human activity—from water use to greenhouse gas emissions—is
having a growing impact on their likelihood and intensity.
1. Climate change. Climate change—and global warming, specifically—impacts drought in two
basic ways: Rising temperatures generally make wet regions wetter and dry regions drier. For
wetter regions, warm air absorbs more water, leading to larger rain events. But in more arid
regions, warmer temperatures mean water evaporates more quickly. In addition, climate
change alters large­scale atmospheric circulation patterns, which can shift storm tracks off their
typical paths. This, in turn, can magnify weather extremes, which is one reason why climate
models predict the already parched U.S. Southwest and the Mediterranean will continue to get
drier.
2. Excess water demand. Drought often reflects an imbalance in water supply and demand.
Regional population booms and intensive agricultural water use can put a strain on water
resources, even tipping the scale enough to make the threat of drought a reality. One study
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estimates that from 1960 to 2010, the human consumption of water increased the frequency
of drought in North America by 25 percent. What’s more, once rainfall dwindles and drought
conditions take hold, persistent water demand—in the form of increased pumping from
groundwater, rivers, and reservoirs—can deplete valuable water resources that may take years
to replenish and permanently impact future water availability. Meanwhile, demand for water
supplied by upstream lakes and rivers, particularly in the form of irrigation and hydroelectric
dams, can lead to the diminishing or drying out of downstream water sources, which may
contribute to drought in other regions.
3. Deforestation and soil degradation. When trees and plants release moisture into the
atmosphere, clouds form and return the moisture to the ground as rain. When forests and
vegetation disappear, less water is available to feed the water cycle, making entire regions more
vulnerable to drought. Meanwhile, deforestation and other poor land­use practices, such as
intensive farming, can diminish soil quality and reduce the land’s ability to absorb and retain
water. As a result, soil dries out faster (which can induce agricultural drought), and less
groundwater is replenished (which can contribute to hydrological drought). Indeed, experts
believe the 1930s Dust Bowl was caused in large part by poor agricultural practices combined
with the cooling of the Pacific and the warming of the Atlantic by as little as a few tenths of a
degree.

Drought Prevention and Preparation

Weather cannot be controlled but by limiting the climate change contributions, reducing water
waste, and using water more efficiently, we can prepare for—and maybe even curb—future dry spells.

Climate change mitigation

The impact of climate change, including more severe drought, can be mitigated only when
countries, cities, businesses, and individuals shift away from the use of climate­warming fossil fuels to
cleaner renewable energy sources. The Paris Agreement, which was adopted by nearly every nation in
2015 and aims to limit the earth’s warming over the next century to 2 degrees Celsius, or 1.5 degrees
if possible, lays the framework for global climate action. But the current commitments countries made
under the pact so far aren’t considered enough to limit global warming to 2 degrees Celsius. It will
succeed only if countries go beyond their commitments.

Demand Climate Action

There’s plenty of room for individuals who produce about four times more carbon pollution than
citizens elsewhere, on average—to fight climate change as well. Actions include speaking to local and
congressional leaders about regional environmental policies and finding ways to cut carbon pollution
from your daily life.

Urban water conservation and efficiency

Aging infrastructure—faulty meters, crumbling pipes, leaky water mains lost plenty of drinkable
and potable water each year. Meanwhile, a single leaky faucet—releasing just three drips a minute—
wastes more than 100 gallons of water in a year. Local government units, cities, water utilities,
businesses, and citizens can curb water waste by investing in climate­smart strategies. These include
repairing leaky infrastructure (from utility pipes to the kitchen faucet), boosting water efficiency with
the use of water­ and energy­efficient technologies and appliances (such as clothes washers), and

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adopting landscape design that makes use of drought­tolerant plants and water­efficient irrigation
techniques. For individuals, there are many other ways to conserve water as well.

Water recycling
Recycled water—also called reclaimed water—is highly treated wastewater that can be used for
myriad purposes, from landscape irrigation (such as watering public parks and golf courses) to industrial
processes (such as providing cooling water for power plants and oil refineries) to replenishing
groundwater supplies. Graywater—recycled water derived from sinks, shower drains, and washing
machines—can be used on site (for example, in homes and businesses) for non­potable uses such as
garden or lawn irrigation. Recycled water can serve as a significant water resource, reducing demand
from sources such as rivers, streams, reservoirs, and underground water supplies.

Rainwater Harvesting
Rainwater Harvesting is the practice of collecting rainwater run­off from a roof and then storing
it for use. Rainwater harvesting is environmentally friendly as harvested rainwater may be used for
irrigation, laundry, flushing, process water and with additional treatment may be utilize as drinking
water as well. The Philippines annually receives about 2,400 mm of rainfall ­­ one of the world's highest
and which can be stored for such purposes.

Agricultural water conservation and efficiency

Agriculture is the largest consumer of the earth’s available freshwater, accounting for 70 percent
of withdrawals worldwide. Strategies for better water management in the agricultural sector focus on
increased water efficiency and reduced consumption. These include improved irrigation techniques—
such as switching from flood to drip irrigation, which alone can cut water use by about 20 percent—as
well as more precise irrigation scheduling to adjust the amount of water used at different stages of crop
growth. Meanwhile, crop rotation, no­till farming (a method for growing crops with minimal soil
disturbance), and the use of cover crops help build soil health, which in turn enables the land to absorb
and retain more water.

VIII. EL NIŇO – SOUTHERN OSCILLATION (ENSO) CYCLE

El Niño/La Niña­Southern Oscillation, or ENSO, is a quasiperiodic climate pattern that occurs

across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. The Southern Oscillation refers to variations
in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean (warming and cooling known as
El Niño and La Niña respectively) and in air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific. The two
variations are coupled: the warm oceanic phase, El Niño, accompanies high air surface pressure in the
western Pacific, while the cold phase, La Niña, accompanies low air surface pressure in the eastern
Pacific. Mechanisms that cause the oscillation remain under study.

The extremes of this climate pattern's oscillations, El Niño and La Niña, cause extreme weather
(such as floods and droughts) in many regions of the world. Developing countries dependent upon
agriculture and fishing, particularly those bordering the Pacific Ocean, are the most affected. In popular
usage, the El Niño­Southern Oscillation is often called just "El Niño". El Niño is Spanish for "the little
boy" and refers to the Christ child, because periodic warming in the Pacific near South America is usually
noticed around Christmas.

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Description

El Niño is defined by prolonged

differences in Pacific Ocean Sea surface
temperatures when compared with the
average value. The accepted definition is a
warming or cooling of at least 0.5 °C
(0.9 °F) averaged over the east­central
tropical Pacific Ocean. Typically, this
anomaly happens at irregular intervals of 3–
7 years and lasts nine months to two years.
The average period length is 5 years. When
this warming or cooling occurs for only
seven to nine months, it is classified as El
Niño/La Niña "conditions"; when it occurs
for more than that period, it is classified as
El Niño/La Niña "episodes".The first signs of
an El Niño are:

1. Rise in surface pressure over the

Indian Ocean, Indonesia, and
Australia
2. Fall in air pressure over Tahiti and
the rest of the central and eastern
Pacific Ocean
3. Trade winds in the south Pacific
weaken or head east
4. Warm air rises near Peru, causing
rain in the northern Peruvian
deserts

Warm water spreads from the west

Pacific and the Indian Ocean to the east
Pacific. It takes the rain with it, causing
extensive drought in the western Pacific
and rainfall in the normally dry eastern
Pacific. El Niño's warm rush of nutrient­poor
tropical water, heated by its eastward passage in the Equatorial Current, replaces the cold, nutrient­rich
surface water of the Humboldt Current. When El Niño conditions last for many months, extensive ocean
warming and the reduction in Easterly Trade winds limits upwelling of cold nutrient­rich deep water and
its economic impact to local fishing for an international market can be serious.

Although its causes are still being investigated, El Niño events begin when trade winds, part of
the Walker circulation, falter for many months. A series of Kelvin waves—relatively warm subsurface
waves of water a few centimetres high and hundreds of kilometres wide—cross the Pacific along the
equator and create a pool of warm water near South America, where ocean temperatures are normally
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cold due to upwelling. The weakening of the winds can also create twin cyclones, another sign of a
future El Niño. The Pacific Ocean is a heat reservoir that drives global wind patterns, and the resulting
change in its temperature alters weather on a global scale. Rainfall shifts from the western Pacific toward
the Americas, while Indonesia and India become drier.

Jacob Bjerknes in 1969 contributed to an understanding of ENSO by suggesting that an

anomalously warm spot in the eastern Pacific can weaken the east­west temperature difference,
disrupting trade winds that push warm water to the west. The result is increasingly warm water toward
the east. Several mechanisms have been proposed through which warmth builds up in equatorial Pacific
surface waters, and is then dispersed to lower depths by an El Niño event. The resulting cooler area
then has to "recharge" warmth for several years before another event can take place. While not a direct
cause of El Niño, the Madden­Julian Oscillation, or MJO, propagates rainfall anomalies eastward
around the global tropics in a cycle of 30–60 days, and may influence the speed of development and
intensity of El Niño and La Niña in several ways.[ For example, westerly flows between MJO­induced
areas of low pressure may cause cyclonic circulations north and south of the equator. When the
circulations intensify, the westerly winds within the equatorial Pacific can further increase and shift
eastward, playing a role in El Niño development. Madden­Julian activity can also produce eastward­
propagating oceanic Kelvin waves, which may in turn be influenced by a developing El Niño, leading to
a positive feedback loop.

Southern Oscillation

The Southern Oscillation is the atmospheric component of El Niño. This component is an

oscillation in surface air pressure between the tropical eastern and the western Pacific Ocean
waters. The strength of the Southern Oscillation is measured by the Southern Oscillation Index
(SOI). The SOI is computed from fluctuations in the surface air pressure difference between Tahiti and
Darwin, Australia. El Niño episodes are associated with negative values of the SOI, meaning that the
pressure difference between Tahiti and Darwin is relatively small.

Low atmospheric pressure tends to occur over warm water and high pressure occurs over cold
water, in part because of deep convection over the warm water. El Niño episodes are defined as
sustained warming of the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean. This results in a decrease in the
strength of the Pacific trade winds, and a reduction in rainfall over eastern and northern Australia.

Walker circulation

During non­El Niño conditions, the Walker circulation is seen at the surface as easterly trade
winds that move water and air warmed by the sun toward the west. This also creates ocean upwelling
off the coasts of Peru and Ecuador and brings nutrient­rich cold water to the surface, increasing fishing
stocks. The western side of the equatorial Pacific is characterized by warm, wet low pressure weather
as the collected moisture is dumped in the form of typhoons and thunderstorms. The ocean is some 60
centimetres (24 in) higher in the western Pacific as the result of this motion.

Winters, during the El Niño effect, are warmer and drier than average in the Northwest,
Northmidwest, and Northmideast United States, and therefore those regions experience reduced
snowfalls. Meanwhile, significantly wetter winters are present in northwest Mexico and the southwest
United States including central and southern California, while both cooler and wetter than average
winters in northeast Mexico and the southeast United States (including the Tidewater region of Virginia)
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occur during the El Niño phase of the oscillation. Some believed that the ice­storm in January 1998,
which devastated parts of Southern Ontario and Southern Quebec, was caused or accentuated by El
Niño's warming effects. El Niño warmed Vancouver for the 2010 Winter Olympics, such that the area
experienced a subtropical­like winter during the games

Effects of ENSO's Cool Phase (La Niña)

La Niña is the name for the cold phase of ENSO, during which the cold pool in the eastern
Pacific intensifies and the trade winds strengthen. The name La Niña originates from Spanish, meaning
"the girl", analogous to El Niño meaning "the boy". It has also in the past been called anti­El Niño, and
El Viejo (meaning "the old man").

Africa. La Niña results in wetter­than­normal conditions in Southern Africa from December to February,
and drier­than­normal conditions over equatorial East Africa over the same period.

Asia. During La Niña years, the formation of tropical cyclones, along with the subtropical ridge position,
shifts westward across the western Pacific ocean, which increases the landfall threat to China. In March
2008, La Niña caused a drop in sea surface temperatures over Southeast Asia by an amount of 2 °C. It
also caused heavy rains over Malaysia, Philippines, and Indonesia.

South America. During a time of La Niña, drought plagues the coastal regions of Peru and Chile. From
December to February, northern Brazil is wetter than normal.

Recent occurrences

There was a strong La Niña episode during 1988–1989. La Niña also formed in 1995 and from
1998–2000, and a minor one from 2000–2001. In recent times, an occurrence of El Niño started in
September 2006and lasted until early 2007. From June 2007 on, data indicated a moderate La Niña
event, which strengthened in early 2008 and weakened before the start of 2009; the 2007–2008 La
Niña event was the strongest since the 1988–1989 event. The strength of the La Niña made the 2008
Atlantic hurricane season one of the most active since 1944; there were 16 named storms of at least
39 mph (63 km/h), eight of which became 74 mph (119 km/h) or greater hurricanes.

Impact of El Niño in the Philippines

ENSO has detrimental impacts on the Philippine people, economy, poverty levels, and
agricultural sector. The country has taken actions and enacted policies to respond to ENSO events, but
these have not adequately mitigated the costs of ENSO impacts. That said, there are further actions the
country can take to better prepare for these impacts. This is important because of the Philippines’ high
exposure to climate shocks, the rural population’s climate vulnerability, and the prominence of the
agricultural sector in the national economy. (Sutton et. al. 2019)

The Philippines is highly exposed to ENSO­related climate and agricultural shocks. ENSO
describes naturally occurring ocean and atmospheric temperature fluctuations, which have major
implications on global weather patterns. Since 1980 there were seven severe ENSO events, which
include both El Niño, ENSO’s warm phase, and La Niña, ENSO’s cold phase. In 1982–1983, El Niño–
related droughts affected 450,000 hectares of farmland in the Philippines. The most severe El Niño

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occurred in 1997–1998, when rainfall fell to half of historical levels, causing drought in two­thirds of the
country. This led to forest fires that destroyed almost 10,000 hectares of natural forests. In 2015–2016,
dry El Niño conditions lasted for 18 months and affected about a third of the country. In total, six cities,
16 provinces, and 65 municipalities declared a state of calamity. By May 2016, over 400,000 farmers
and 550,000 hectares were directly affected by El Niño–induced drought. Later, La Niña caused flooding
in low­lying farm areas causing increases in crop pests and diseases. Overall, the most recent El Niño
event in 2015–2016 caused $327 million in agricultural production losses.

ENSO’s most notable effect is on average rainfall, which declines during El Niño and rises
during La Niña. These average rainfall variations are most pronounced during the driest six months of
the year, December to May. During El Niño in the Philippines, average rainfall decreased by 14
percent in Luzon, the northern island chain; 21 percent in Visayas, the central island chain;
and 35 percent in Mindanao, the southern­most island chain. During La Niña, by contrast,
rainfall increased by 31 percent in Luzon, 41 percent in Visayas, and 19 percent in Mindanao
(see Figure A for El Nino’s rainfall patterns and El Niño–affected areas in the Philippines).
ENSO affects crop production because it disrupts normal weather patterns. More specifically,
El Niño creates water shortages and La Niña creates water abundance, including flooding.
Water shortages reduce crop planting areas, delay planting seasons, and generally lower crop
yields. One study found that a one degree increase in sea surface temperatures during July–September
is associated with a 3.7 percent decline in irrigated dry season production and a 13.7 percent decline in
rainfed dry season production in Luzon. In both irrigated and rainfed systems, the decline was larger
for harvested areas (9 percent decline) than for yields (5 percent decline). Another study estimated
substantial yield losses for wet season crops, showing rice yield losses during El Niño events in 1973,
1983, and 1990. Simulations carried out for this report show La Niña crop yield gains can partially make
up for El Niño yield losses.

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Some evidence
shows that ENSO events
affect the livestock and
fisheries sectors. A report
by the Philippine Bureau of
Fisheries and Aquatic
Resources shows El Niño may
reduce annual fish catches by
20 percent in open waters
and by 23 percent in waters
within 15 kilometers of the
shoreline. Despite this,
national production data also
show fish production, from
1980 to 2015, has
consistently risen in the
Philippines despite numerous
ENSO events, seemingly
contradicting the ENSO­
fisheries link. ENSO’s links
with livestock declines is also
poorly established. That said,
La Niña increases annual
“hot” days by 25, which can cause increased heat stress on livestock and related cost increases for
producers.

ENSO’s impacts on agriculture have economy­wide implications. Over 7 million

hectares of the Philippines’ 30 million hectares are devoted to agriculture. Agriculture was only 12.5
percent of total gross domestic product (GDP) in 2011. But, when downstream agricultural processing,
input production, and agriculture­related trading and transporting are included, the contribution of the
entire agriculture food system (AFS) was over 30 percent of GDP. Agriculture also employs over a
quarter of the country’s workforce. As such, any shocks to agriculture lead to reverberations across the
entire economy, with serious implications on welfare, food security, and national poverty levels.
Strong El Niño events lead to GDP losses, while strong La Niña events lead to smaller
GDP gains. Simulations for this report show that national GDP losses during a strong El Niño event are
$3.3 billion, while national GDP gains during La Niña are $0.5 billion. Percentage losses are larger in
agriculture, where GDP falls by nearly 7 percent. Sub­nationally, GDP losses vary across regions within
the Philippines: agricultural GDP falls by 1.9 percent in Luzon during a strong El Niño, but by 1.4 percent
in Mindanao. Moderate La Niña events saw some gains in Luzon and Visayas, but small losses in
Mindanao. Overall, most of El Niño’s economic losses occur outside of agriculture, while La Niña’s
agricultural impacts cause slightly greater economic benefits in agriculture than the wider economy.
(Sutton et. al. 2019)

Health Consequences of El Niño

The health consequences of El Niño is summarize below as shown in the next diagram.

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 Both droughts and flooding may trigger food insecurity, increase malnutrition and thus enhance
vulnerability to infectious diseases;
 Droughts, flooding and intense rainfall (including cyclones) may cause loss of life, significant
population displacement, water and vector­borne disease outbreaks and may damage or close
health facilities, thus reducing regular health service delivery and restricting access to healthcare
during the emergency and well beyond the event;
 El Niño­related warmer temperatures may result in vector­borne disease epidemics in highland
areas, which are too cold for vector survival and disease transmission at other times;
 Damaged or flooded sanitation infrastructure may lead to water­borne diseases;
 Extremely hot and dry conditions may lead to heat waves, wildfires, increased smoke and
deteriorated air quality, causing or exacerbating respiratory diseases and heat stress;
 Populations already affected by a humanitarian situation (e.g. in internally displaced persons and
refugee camps) face heightened risk of suffering health consequences of either wet or dry
conditions.
 Globally, natural disasters such as droughts, floods and storms kill more women than men, and
tend to kill women at a younger age. These effects also interact with the nature of the event and
social status. The gender­gap effects on life expectancy tend to be greater in more severe
disasters, and in places where the socioeconomic status of women is particularly low.

Health and social impacts of El Niño

Extreme weather conditions related to the El Niño cycle correlate with changes in the incidence
of epidemic diseases. For example, the El Niño cycle is associated with increased risks of some of the
diseases transmitted by mosquitoes, such as malaria, dengue, and Rift Valley fever. Cycles of malaria
in India, Venezuela, and Colombia have now been linked to El Niño. Outbreaks of another mosquito­
transmitted disease, Australian encephalitis (Murray Valley encephalitis ­ MVE), occur in temperate
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south­east Australia after heavy rainfall and flooding, which are associated with La Niña events. A severe
outbreak of Rift Valley fever occurred after extreme rainfall in north­eastern Kenya and southern Somalia
during the 1997­98 El Niño.

ENSO may be linked to civil conflicts. Scientists at the Earth Institute of Columbia University
have analyzed data from 1950 to 2004 and suggest that ENSO may have had a role in 21% of all civil
conflicts since 1950, with the risk of annual civil conflict doubling from 3% to 6% in countries affected
by ENSO during El Niño years relative to La Niña years.

El Niño affected pre­Columbian Incas and may have led to the demise of the Moche and other
pre­Columbian Peruvian cultures. A recent study suggests that a strong El­Niño effect between 1789–
93 caused poor crop yields in Europe, which in turn helped touch off the French Revolution. The extreme
weather produced by El Niño in 1876–77 gave rise to the most deadly famines of the 19th century. The
1876 famine alone in northern China killed up to 13 million people.

QUESTIONS

1. What is a weather disturbance? Are all weather disturbances bring disaster? Explain
2. What monsoon are we experiencing nowadays?
3. Relate your experience with thunderstorm.
4. Explain concisely how the following occur: thunderstorm, typhoon, flood, drought
5. Among the different weather disturbances described in this chapter, which one has the most
frequent occurrence in your locality? Describe how it occurs. What problems did it bring to your
area?
6. What is the name of the recent typhoon in the Philippines? Did it bring flood? Specify the maximum
wind speed, date of occurrence, tracks, and damages in monetary values.
7. When an LPA did last affected your place? Explain the weather condition during those time.
8. Explain how a tropical cyclone form.
9. A tropical cyclone has four stages, explain the weather conditions in the four stages and cite a real
time in your daily life when those stages happen.
10. El Niño followed by La Niña occur in the Philippines. Describe the event based from your observation
and experience. What were its impacts or effects in the lives of people and the agriculture industry?
11. Explain completely how one can mitigate the effects of the following: typhoon, flood, and drought?
12. Complete the glossary of terms in the last part of this material. Choose words from this material
new or not clear to you and arrange them in alphabetical order.

REFERENCES:

1. Ahrens, CD & Henson, G. Meteorology Today. An Introduction to Weather, Climate, and the
Environment 12th Edition. Cengage Learning. 2019. Boston MA USA.
2. Colier, C.G. Hydrometeorology. 2016 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd. NJ USA
3. Linsley, R. K. et. al. Hydrology for Engineers. SI Metric Edition. McGraw Hill Book Company,
1982. Singapore.
4. Suplee, C. El Nino La Nina. National Geographic Vol. 195, No 3 Pages 81­87. March 1999.

Article:
1. “Sutton, William R.; Srivastava, Jitendra P.; Rosegrant, Mark; Valmonte­Santos, Rowena;
Ashwill, Maximillian. 2019. Striking a Balance : Managing El Niño and La Niña in Philippines’
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Agriculture. World Bank, Washington, DC. © World Bank.

https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/31521 License: CC BY 3.0 IGO.”
Retrieved from: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/31521

YouTube links
1. https://youtu.be/esPoK1fuA5g
2. https://study.com/academy/topic/disturbances.html

Internet Source:
1. http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/learning­tools/meteorological­terms
2. http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/information/about­tropical­cyclone
3. https://www.thoughtco.com/what­is­a­low­pressure­area­3444141
4. https://www.accuweather.com/en/weather­news/what­is­a­low­pressure­area/433451
5. https://www.pacificclimatefutures.net/en/help/climate­projections/understanding­climate­
variability­and­change/
6. https://www.usgs.gov/special­topic/water­science­school/science/droughts­things­know?qt­
science_center_objects=0#what

Suggested Readings:
1. http://bagong.pagasa.dost.gov.ph/flood

Glossary of Terms

Low
An area of low barometric pressure, with its attendant system of winds. An area of low barometric
depression or cyclone.

Pressure Gradient Force

Force acting on air that causes it to move from areas of higher pressure to areas of lower pressure.

Trough
A trough is an elongated (extended) region of relatively low atmospheric pressure, often associated
with fronts. Troughs may be at the surface, or aloft, or both under various conditions. Most troughs
bring clouds, showers, and a wind shift, particularly following the passage of the trough.

continue….

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