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COVID-19 Modelling Data

This document provides a COVID-19 update for British Columbia as of November 4, 2021. It includes data on case rates, vaccinations, hospitalizations, and deaths by local health area and over time. Key findings are: case rates vary by area; over 90% of adults are fully vaccinated; unvaccinated people account for most hospitalizations; fully vaccinated older adults make up most deaths as they are at higher risk. Modeling suggests transmission is moderate with an Rt of 1.07 if current measures continue and vaccines have helped curb spread compared to no vaccination scenario.

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0% found this document useful (0 votes)
24K views26 pages

COVID-19 Modelling Data

This document provides a COVID-19 update for British Columbia as of November 4, 2021. It includes data on case rates, vaccinations, hospitalizations, and deaths by local health area and over time. Key findings are: case rates vary by area; over 90% of adults are fully vaccinated; unvaccinated people account for most hospitalizations; fully vaccinated older adults make up most deaths as they are at higher risk. Modeling suggests transmission is moderate with an Rt of 1.07 if current measures continue and vaccines have helped curb spread compared to no vaccination scenario.

Uploaded by

CTV Vancouver
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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COVID-19 Update

November 4, 2021
Geographic
distribution of
COVID-19 case rates
by local health area
of residence,
Oct 24 to 30, 2021

2
Geographic distribution
of COVID-19
cumulative case rate
by local health
area of residence
1 Jan 2020 – 31 Oct 2021

3
Geographic
distribution
of COVID-19
vaccinations by
local/community
health area
of residence
Nov 1, 2021

4
Geographic distribution of COVID-19 vaccinations and case rates by
local/community health area of residence, Nov 1, 2021

5
Daily cases, hospitalizations, and deaths
Jan 1 to Nov 1, 2021

206,284 total cases

11,470 ever hospitalized

2,181 deaths

6
Rate of cases and hospitalizations by vaccination status,
July 1 to Nov 1, 2021

7
Case incidence, test positivity, and testing rate by HSDA, Jan 1 – Nov 1 2021

8
Epidemic curve, COVID-19 cases in BC by health authority,
Jan 1– Nov 1, 2021

9
Daily case rate by age Jan 1 to Nov 1, 2021

10
Daily case rate by age and vaccination status, July 1 to Nov 1, 2021

11
New daily COVID-19 hospitalization counts and rates per 100,000
Jan 1 to Oct 28, 2021

Number of
hospitalizations

Rates per 100,000

12
Percentage distribution of cumulative COVID-19 cases, hospitalizations,
ICU admissions and deaths by age, Jan 15, 2020 – Oct 23, 2021

13
Vaccination progress in BC over time by age group and dose number
up to November 1, 2021

~90% ~80%

14
Over the past month (October 2021), unvaccinated individuals
accounted for 72% of hospitalizations

Deaths continue to occur


primarily among older
individuals (see next slide),
>90% of whom are
vaccinated, which explains
6% the higher relative % of
deaths among the fully
vaccinated

67%

Note: relative size of donuts not to scale

15
COVID-19 health outcomes by vaccination status and age, BC, October 2021

16
COVID-19
hospitalization
rate by vaccination
status and age,
July 1 – Oct 28, 2021

17
After adjusting for age differences, unvaccinated individuals are at much
greater risk of infection, hospitalization, or death from COVID-19
than fully vaccinated individuals

~10x ~50x

~46x

18
October 26 to November 1: Pediatric COVID-19 Profile

Age group: 0-4 Age group: 0-4 Age group: 0-4 Age group: 0-4
5,529 total cases 116 ever hospitalized 12 ever in critical care 2 total deaths
148 new this week 1 new this week 0 new this week 0 new this week

Age group: 5-11 Age group: 5-11 Age group: 5-11 Age group: 5-11
14,295 total cases 56 ever hospitalized 4 ever in critical care 0 total deaths
550 new this week 1 new this week 1 new this week 0 new this week

Age group: 12-17 Age group: 12-17 Age group: 12-17 Age group: 12-17
12,399 total cases 49 ever hospitalized 8 ever in critical care 0 total deaths
204 new this week 1 new this week 1 new this week 0 new this week
New hospitalizations and critical care census numbers as of Oct 28 2021
New cases and new deaths are net new as of Nov 1 and Oct 25 2021

19
COVID-19 Incidence by Age and Health Authority July 1 to Oct 31, 2021

20
Unvaccinated Vaccinated, 2 doses

0 to 11 years
Cases

Pediatric incidence
and hospitalization
rate by age (0-11 Hospitalizations
and 12-17 years) and
vaccination status,
Unvaccinated Vaccinated, 2 doses
July 1- Nov 1, 2021

Cases

12 to 17 years
Cases 0 hospitalizations
among fully
vaccinated youth

Hospitalizations Cases

21
Pediatric testing rates, incidence and percent positivity by age, Jan 1- Nov 1, 2021

22
Dynamic modelling: recent trends

23
Transmission scenarios: October 27 to November 29, 2021

Currently, 𝑅𝑡 for BC is 1.07 (0.98 - 1.19)

Note: Scenarios do not include further public health measures that may be implemented to reduce transmission.
Shading indicates uncertainty due to effectiveness of vaccines, showing 90% and 50% confidence intervals

24
Medium-range scenario compared to no vaccine

No vaccination Rt=3.43

Projected vaccination
Medium range Rt=1.07

Note: Scenarios do not include further public health measures that may be implemented to reduce transmission.
Shading indicates uncertainty due to effectiveness of vaccines, showing 90% and 50% confidence intervals

25
COVID-19 Update
November 4, 2021

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