Stock Update

Lumax Auto Technologies Limited

Illuminated performance
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3R MATRIX + = - Summary
Right Sector (RS) ü Š We maintain our Buy rating on Lumax Auto Technologies Limited (Lumax Auto) with a
revised PT of Rs. 190, factoring in better multiples owing to a strong traction in its business
Right Quality (RQ) ü
outlook and earnings upgrade.
Right Valuation (RV) ü Š We expect Lumax Auto to benefit from strong volume traction in its key clients’ businesses
in 2W, PV, and CV segments, a diversifying client portfolio, and a widening product
+ Positive = Neutral - Negative portfolio.
Š We expect Lumax Auto’s earnings to report a 32% CAGR over FY2021E-FY2023E, driven
What has changed in 3R MATRIX by a 19% CAGR during FY2021E-FY2023E and a 90-bps improvement in EBITDA margin.
Old New Š The stock is trading below its historical average at a P/E multiple of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA
multiple of 6.8x its FY2023 estimates.
RS 
We continue to remain positive on the growth prospects of Lumax Auto Technologies Limited
RQ  (Lumax Auto) due to strong volume traction in the two-wheeler (2-W), passenger vehicles (PV),
and commercial vehicles (CV) segments, which are the company’s key revenue contributors.
RV  Lumax Auto commands a dominant market share in most products it supplies to its customers.
The company has a strong presence in the 2W and PV segments, which contribute 48% and
20% to total revenue, respectively, and rising demand in these segments bodes well for
Reco/View Change Lumax. The company has received new order book of Rs. 400 crore during Q3FY2021. The
company is witnessing increased share of business with its OEM customers. Lumax Auto has
Reco: Buy  received new businesses in the PV business for M&M’s Thar (gear shifter, control housing, and
CMP: Rs. 157 other products), Maruti’s upcoming SUV (plastic parts), and Tata Motors’ Hornbill SUV (air
filter assembly). In the 2W segment, new business was received from Bajaj Chetak EV (helmet
Price Target: Rs. 190 á box lamp), CT100, and Pulsar (seat cowl and side cover). Moreover, the faster adoption of
electric vehicles will benefit Lumax Auto in two ways, viz. increased business from existing
á Upgrade  Maintain â Downgrade clients and faster adoption of LED lighting, where it has a stronghold in the market. Led by the
company’s strong relationships with OEMs, the company also enjoys a ‘preferred supplier’
Company details status and gets an opportunity for incremental revenue when it widens its product portfolio.
The company has a well-diversified customer and product portfolio, which de-risks its
Market cap: Rs. 1,070 cr
business model. We expect Lumax Auto to benefit from a favourable changing product trend
52-week high/low: Rs. 168 / 48 such as shifting from halogen lights to LED lights for 2Ws and PVs, increasing use of lighter
plastic materials, and increasing automatic transmission in PVs (shifting from manual gears
NSE volume: to automatic gears). We expect Lumax Auto to benefit from increasing revenue per client and
1.43 lakh
(No of shares) a richer product mix. Given its revenue visibility, we expect Lumax Auto’s earnings to report a
32% CAGR over FY2021E-FY2023E, driven by a 19.0% CAGR during FY2021E-FY2023E and a
BSE code: 532796 90-bps improvement in EBITDA margin. Hence, we maintain Buy on the stock with a revised
NSE code: LUMAXTECH price target (PT) of Rs. 190.

Free float: Our Call

3.0 cr Valuation - Maintain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 190: Lumax Auto is witnessing strong growth
(No of shares)
traction from clients, driven by recovery in automotive and expansion of product portfolio. The
outlook remains positive with strong recovery expected from FY2022, driven by normalisation
Shareholding (%) of economic activities and rolling out of COVID-19 vaccination successfully throughout the
Promoters 56.0 country. Operating profit margin (OPM) is expected to remain firm led by operating leverage and
cost-control measures. The company has a strong balance sheet and positive cash of Rs. 25
FII 18.6 crore net-of-debt in 9MFY2021. We have increased our target multiple to 16x to reflect improving
businesses from existing and new clients, improving content per vehicle, and firm OPM. The
DII 6.0 stock is trading below its historical average at P/E multiple of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA multiple of
Others 19.4 6.8x its FY2023 estimates. We retain our Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 190.
Key risk
Price chart A second wave of COVID-19 can hamper economic activities and affect revenue growth.
180 Moreover, pricing pressures from OEMs may hit profitability.
135
Valuations (Consolidated) Rs cr
90 Particulars FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
45 Net sales 1,187 1,141 1,088 1,343 1,540
0
Growth (%) 17.2 (3.9) (4.6) 23.4 14.7
EBIDTA 110 91 91 122 143
Jul-20

Nov-20
Mar-20

Mar-21

OPM (%) 9.3 8.0 8.4 9.1 9.3

PAT 65 50 46 66 81
Price performance Growth (%) 46.8 (23.7) (6.8) 41.6 22.8
(%) 1m 3m 6m 12m FD EPS (Rs.) 9.6 7.3 6.8 9.7 11.9
P/E (x) 16.4 21.4 23.0 16.2 13.2
Absolute 22.6 28.9 63.0 81.7
P/BV (x) 2.2 2.4 2.2 2.0 1.7
Relative to EV/EBITDA (x) 9.6 11.2 11.3 8.2 6.8
24.4 19.3 31.6 40.2
Sensex RoE (%) 13.6 11.2 9.7 12.4 13.2
Sharekhan Research, Bloomberg RoCE (%) 15.7 12.1 11.4 14.4 15.6
Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

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Beneficiary of improved automotive business outlook: Lumax Auto is expected to benefit from the improving
business outlook for the automotive sector. The company has a well-diversified customer and product
portfolio, de-risking its business model from dependency on one-customer or one-product. The company has
a strong presence in the 2W and PV segments, which contribute 48% and 20% to total revenue, respectively,
and rising demand in these segments bodes well for Lumax Auto.

Lumax Auto to benefit from recovery in automotive sales, especially from 2W and PV segments

25,00,000 40 3,50,000 60

20 3,00,000 40
20,00,000
20
0 2,50,000

15,00,000 0
-20 2,00,000
-20
-40 1,50,000
10,00,000
-40
-60 1,00,000
-60
5,00,000
-80 50,000 -80

0 -100 0 -100
Apr-18 Aug-18 Dec-18 Apr-19 Aug-19 Dec-19 Apr-20 Aug-20 Dec-20 Apr-18 Sep-18 Feb-19 Jul-19 Dec-19 May-20 Oct-20

2W % YoY PV % YoY

Source: Company Data; Sharekhan Research

Strong and long-lasting client base: Lumax Auto has strong relationships with large OEMs, which offer robust
revenue visibility. The company’s key clients in the domestic market include Bajaj Auto, HMSI, Maruti Suzuki,
M&M Lumax Industries, Toyota Motors, and Kia Motors. Lumax Auto is the top supplier for most OEMs and
commands a dominant market share per product per OEM. On account of strong relationships with OEMs, the
company also enjoys a ‘preferred supplier’ status, when it expands its product portfolio. We expect Lumax
Auto to benefit from the favourable changing product trend, such as shifting from halogen lights to LED lights
in 2W/four-wheelers (4W), increasing use of lighter plastic materials, and increasing automatic transmission in
4Ws (shifting from manual gears to automatic gears).

Lumax Auto to benefit from its strong relationship with leading OEMs
Others
Maruti Tata 6%
Emission
6% 4%
Others 6%
Lumax Ind
9% 15% Plastic moulds
Shifter 30%
11%

HMSI
10%
Lighting
12%

Aftermarket
Bajaj Auto
19% Aftermarket
37% Fabrication
16% 19%

Source: Company Data; Sharekhan Research

New business order book: Lumax Auto got awarded contracts worth Rs. 400 crore during Q3FY2021 from
OEMs, which will be booked in P&L over 3-4 years. The break-up of the new business includes – Rs. 150 crore
for gear shifter (Maruti Suzuki), Rs. 100 crore for metallic (Bajaj Auto), Rs. 100 crore-120 crore for plastics (Bajaj

March 16, 2021 2

 Stock Update
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Auto, HMSI, and Maruti), Rs. 20 crore for Emission, and Rs. 30 crore-40 crore for lighting (Bajaj Auto). New
orders worth Rs. 150 crore will be executed in FY2022E.

New businesses: Lumax Auto introduced urea tanks and oxygen sensors that are mandatory under BS-VI
vehicles. The company is witnessing increased traction in urea tanks with customers such as Tata Motors.
Lumax Auto is witnessing strong demand for oxygen sensors and had secured orders from automotive OEMs.
The company is also witnessing increased share of business with automotive OEM customers. Lumax Auto
has received new businesses for M&M’s Thar (gear shifter and control housing), Maruti’s upcoming SUV
(plastic parts), Tata Motors’ Hornbill SUV (air filter assembly). In the 2W segment, new business was received
from Bajaj Chetak EV (helmet box lamp), CT100, and Pulsar (seat cowl and side cover). We expect Lumax Auto
to benefit from increased revenue per client and richer product mix.

New product launches: Lumax Auto launched several products during the previous year, which were impacted
by COVID-19 lockdown. The company has started to see traction from new launches and expects to receive
full-year advantage in FY2022. The company is ramping up its aftermarket sales through increasing its retail
network.

Management guidance: The management of Lumax Auto is working towards achieving a leadership position in
segments where it has presence and set a footprint globally. The company expects huge potential in the gear
shifter markets, with improving share of automatic gear system and increasing localisation of procurement.
The focus on aftermarket sales continues to remain a priority.

Capex plans and investments: Lumax Auto did capex of Rs. 47 crore during 9MFY21. FY2021 is expected to
end with capex of Rs. 60 crore-65 crore. The company has given capex guidance of Rs. 80 crore-100 crore for
FY2022. The company is open to grow inorganically.

Strong broad-based growth; Expect double-digit growth in FY2022: The company has a strong long-term
revenue visibility, given its strong relationships with OEMs. We have maintained our earnings estimates. We
expect Lumax Auto’s earnings to report a 32% CAGR over FY2021E-FY2023E, driven by a 19.4% CAGR during
FY2021E-FY2023E and a 90-bps improvement in EBITDA margin.

March 16, 2021 3

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Financials in charts

Revenue and Growth Trend Segmental Mix (%)

1,600 24.9 30 Others
25 7%
1,400
17.2 15.7 20 CV
1,200
15 9%
1,000 10
800 5
-3.9 0 Aftermarket 2W/3W
600
19% 47%
-5
400 -12.5
-10
200 -15
0 -20
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E Passenger
vehicles
Revenue (Rs cr) Growth % 18%

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Product Mix (%) EBITDA and OPM Trend

Others 160 9.3 9.3 10
Emission 6% 9.1
140
6%
Plastic 9
120
moulds
Shifter 30% 100
8.4
9
11%
80 8.0
60 8

Lighting 40
12% 8
20

0 7
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
Fabrication Aftermarket
16% 19% EBITDA (Rs cr) OPM (%)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

Net Profit and Growth Trend Return Ratio Trend

90 70 18
15.7 15.3
80 60 14.2
46.8 15
41.6 50
70 12.1
40 10.7
60 12 13.6
22.8 30 13.0
50 12.2
20 9 11.2
40
10 9.0
30 -6.8 6
0
20 -10
-23.7 3
10 -20
0 -30
0
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E
FY19 FY20 FY21E FY22E FY23E

Net Profit (Rs cr) Growth % ROE (%) ROCE (%)

Source: Company, Sharekhan Research Source: Company, Sharekhan Research

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Outlook and Valuation

n Sector View – Auto demand revving up

Q3FY2021 was a strong quarter for both automobile and auto ancillary companies, as expected. Sales as well as operational
performance improved, with some companies reporting their highest-ever quarterly sales and profits. Q3FY2021 was a strong
comeback after a clean washout in Q1FY2021. Companies learned the hard way to improve operational efficiencies, which has led
to strong foundations for a structurally improved operational performance in the long run. A shift towards digitalisation, controlling
of administrative costs, focus on core business, and expansion of business through product innovations were the key factors that
resulted in superior results. We expect the recovery to remain strong across automobile segments in FY2022 and FY2023, driven
by normalisation of economic activities and roll-out of COVID-19 vaccines in India.

n Company Outlook – Strong growth visibility

Lumax Auto is witnessing increased share of business from clients. In the 2W segment, the company has received orders for supply of
chassis for KTM (a division of Bajaj Auto) and plastic parts from Bajaj Auto and Honda Motorcycles and Scooters India. In the PV segment,
the company has orders from leading OEMs such as Maruti Suzuki, M&M, and Tata Motors for supply of gear shifters, plastic parts, and
air filter assemblies for their upcoming models. Moreover, with the advent of BS-VI emission norms, the company has introduced new
products such as urea tanks for PVs and CVs and oxygen sensors for 2W. New products will increase content per vehicle and drive the
company’s growth. Moreover, the company is aggressively focussing on aftermarket sales through increasing its retail presence.

n Valuation – Maintain Buy with a revised PT of Rs. 190

Lumax Auto is witnessing strong growth traction from clients, driven by recovery in automotive and expansion of product portfolio. The
outlook remains positive with strong recovery expected from FY2022, driven by normalisation of economic activities and rolling out of
COVID-19 vaccination successfully throughout the country. OPM is expected to remain firm, led by operating leverage and cost-control
measures. The company has a strong balance sheet and positive cash of Rs. 25 crore net-of-debt in 9MFY2021. We have increased our
target multiple to 16x to reflect improving businesses from existing and new clients, improving content per vehicle, and firm OPM. The
stock is trading below its historical average at P/E multiple of 13.2x and EV/EBITDA multiple of 6.8x its FY2023 estimates. We retain our
Buy rating on the stock with a revised PT of Rs. 190.

Price Target Calculation

Rs per Share
FY2023E EPS (Rs. per share) 11.9
Target P/E Multiple (x) 16
Target Price (Rs.) 190
Upside (%) 21%
Source: Company; Sharekhan estimates

One-year forward P/E (x) band

25.0

20.0

15.0

10.0

5.0

0.0
Sep-13

Sep-14

Sep-15

Sep-16

Sep-17

Sep-18

Sep-19

Sep-20
Mar-13

Mar-14

Mar-15

Mar-16

Mar-17

Mar-18

Mar-19

Mar-20

Mar-21

Fwd P/E (x) Avg. P/E (x) Peak P/E (x) Trough P/E (x)

Source: Sharekhan Research

Peer Comparison
P/E (x) EV/EBIDTA (x) RoCE (%)
Particulars
FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E FY21E FY22E FY23E
Lumax Auto Technologies Limited 23.0 16.2 13.2 11.3 8.2 6.8 11.4 14.4 15.6
Gabriel India Limited 31.5 16.7 13.1 14.8 8.9 7.1 10.3 17.3 19.8
GNA Axles Limited 16.6 12.9 10.5 7.5 5.9 5.0 11.8 13.6 15.2
Mayur Uniquoters Ltd 21.9 17.7 14.6 14.1 11.1 8.9 17.9 19.7 21.1
Alicon Castalloy Limited NA 24.6 11.5 11.5 7.2 5.6 4.3 10.6 15.2
Source: Company, Sharekhan estimates

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About company
Lumax Auto is part of Lumax - D. K. Jain Group. The company is a leading auto component manufacturer with a well-
diversified product portfolio. Lumax Auto supplies to most of the leading 2W OEMs in the country and is present in the
2W and 3W segments (50% of FY2020 sales), passenger cars (20% of FY2020 sales), and aftermarkets (18% of FY2020
sales). The OEM segment accounts for 80% of FY2020 revenue, while the aftermarket segment accounts for 18% of the
revenue. Some of the products include intake stems, integrated plastic modules, 2W chassis and lighting, gear shifters,
seat structures and mechanisms, LED lighting, aerospace and defence engineering services, aftermarket, electrical and
electronics components, and telematics products and services.

Investment theme
Lumax Auto is expected to be a beneficiary of improving business outlook for automotive business. The company has
a well-diversified customer and product portfolio, de-risking its business model from dependency on one-customer or
one-product. The company has a strong presence in the 2W and PV segments, which contribute 48% and 20% to total
revenue, respectively. We expect Lumax Auto to be a beneficiary of demand in 2W and PV segments. On account of
strong relationships with OEMs, the company also enjoys preference when it expands its product portfolio. We expect
Lumax Auto to benefit from favourable changing product trends such as shifting from halogen lights to LED lights in
2W/4W, increasing use of lighter plastic materials, and increasing automatic transmission in 4Ws (shifting from manual
gears to automatic gears. Moreover, we expect Lumax Auto to benefit from increased revenue per client and richer
product mix. The company has received new businesses for M&M’s Thar (gear shifter and control housing), Maruti’s
upcoming SUV (plastic parts), and Tata Motors’ Hornbill SUV (air filter assembly). In the 2W segment, new business was
received from Bajaj Chetak EV (helmet box lamp), CT100, and Pulsar (seat cowl and side cover).

Key Risks
Š The second wave of COVID-19 can lead to slowdown in economic activities again and can impact the company’s
revenue growth.
Š Pricing pressures from automotive OEM customers can impact profitability.

Additional Data
Key management personnel
Mr. D K Jain Chairman
Mr. Anmol Jain Managing Director
Mr. Deepak Jain Director
Mr. Ashish Dubey Chief Financial Officer
Source: Company Website

Top 10 shareholders
Sr. No. Holder Name Holding (%)
1 Jain Deepak 19.0%
2 Jain Anmol 19.0%
3 Lumax Finance Pvt Ltd 17.8%
4 Albula Investment Fund Ltd 9.0%
5 Asia Investment Corporation (mauritius) Ltd 4.8%
6 DSP Investment Managers Pvt Ltd 4.5%
7 India Acorn Fund Ltd 1.5%
8 White Oak India Equity Fund 1.4%
9 First State Indian Subcontinent Fund 1.4%
10 Dhanesh Kumar Jain Family Trust 0.3%
Source: Bloomberg

Sharekhan Limited, its analyst or dependant(s) of the analyst might be holding or having a position in the companies mentioned in the article.

March 16, 2021 6

Understanding the Sharekhan 3R Matrix
Right Sector
Positive Strong industry fundamentals (favorable demand-supply scenario, consistent
industry growth), increasing investments, higher entry barrier, and favorable
government policies
Neutral Stagnancy in the industry growth due to macro factors and lower incremental
investments by Government/private companies
Negative Unable to recover from low in the stable economic environment, adverse
government policies affecting the business fundamentals and global challenges
(currency headwinds and unfavorable policies implemented by global industrial
institutions) and any significant increase in commodity prices affecting profitability.
Right Quality
Positive Sector leader, Strong management bandwidth, Strong financial track-record,
Healthy Balance sheet/cash flows, differentiated product/service portfolio and
Good corporate governance.
Neutral Macro slowdown affecting near term growth profile, Untoward events such as
natural calamities resulting in near term uncertainty, Company specific events
such as factory shutdown, lack of positive triggers/events in near term, raw
material price movement turning unfavourable
Negative Weakening growth trend led by led by external/internal factors, reshuffling of
key management personal, questionable corporate governance, high commodity
prices/weak realisation environment resulting in margin pressure and detoriating
balance sheet
Right Valuation
Positive Strong earnings growth expectation and improving return ratios but valuations
are trading at discount to industry leaders/historical average multiples, Expansion
in valuation multiple due to expected outperformance amongst its peers and
Industry up-cycle with conducive business environment.
Neutral Trading at par to historical valuations and having limited scope of expansion in
valuation multiples.
Negative Trading at premium valuations but earnings outlook are weak; Emergence of
roadblocks such as corporate governance issue, adverse government policies
and bleak global macro environment etc warranting for lower than historical
valuation multiple.
Source: Sharekhan Research
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