STI College
Sta. Cruz, Laguna
Philippine Governance
(Philippine Politics)
Garcia, Bryan G.
10000121526
BM 302
March 2018
Ms. Aleli Co
Let’s imagine a likely future for the Philippines. We can draw our deductions from the trends we
currently see, including current events, popular will, and various government acts. I shall presume that
readers are fairly well versed on social, political, and economic developments in the Philippines.
If you have questions or disagree with the projections, please make your points in the discussion that
follows the article. That’s the main purpose of this blog. Remember that hopes and wishes are not exactly
analytical.
To help with the discussion, I have asked my bookie Sal to attach some probabilities to various
predictions. You might choose to have your own bookie or AI calculator put some estimates to them as
well.
Here we go. This is what we will see in the Philippines over the next 10 or 20 years:
Representative government is on the way out in favor of a federation of dynastic states headed by a
strongman. The Constitution will cease to be a document of, by, and for the people, and will be
reconfigured to be of, by, and for the entitled. This mock-democracy may be representative, but, like
today, representatives will look up, not down, as they craft laws and line their pockets. Sal estimates there
is an 85% chance that material changes to the Constitution will be made within the next five years, and a
98% chance of it occurring within 10 years as successors to President Duterte follow in his strongman
footsteps (Marcos, Pacquiao, or Duterte II).
The economy will remain robust over the short, middle, and long term as Chinese firms move in to
replace Western companies that depart. Economic well-being will be bolstered by an increasing number
of OFW’s, many of whom will go directly to mainland China as the Philippines continues to produce the
best and brightest servant class in the world. China will come to dominate Philippine mining,
construction, agribusiness, fishing, and manufacturing sectors within 20 years. Sal puts the chance of
economic collapse at a mere 5%.
Brains will drain out of the country, leaving the population as a hard-working, frustrated, discouraged,
vacuous lot susceptible to propaganda and emotional appeals made by a strongman leader whom they will
admire, having long ago forgotten how real father figures ought to behave. A material brain drain is a
95% probability as people of high character and intellect seek opportunities in lands that can provide
them. The Philippines will be bogged down in natural disasters, regional wars, ethnic conflicts (Chinese
vs. Filipino), and governmental incompetence, factors that will limit career opportunities for Filipinos. As
is the case in today’s government, advancement will be determined by the concessions one is willing to
make to the entitled . . . not competence.
The Philippines will not rise to become a leader in Asia as internal turmoil, natural disasters, and
corruption sap what little wealth, intellectual, and management authority is left behind by those fleeing.
The job of leading non-Chinese Asia will fall to Japan and Viet Nam. In the Philippines, a government
managed by the unskilled elite, doling out favors rather than solving problems forthrightly, will muddle
along as Filipinos far and wide continue to bear their burdens obediently. Many will drop out to join
Muslim or communist rebellions. Sal puts the probability of the Philippines keeping pace with Viet Nam
as a nation others emulate at less than 3%.
Drugs will continue to be a ‘managed problem’ that, along with rebellion, will bolster the State’s
arguments for ruthless totalitarian controls. The Armed Forces of the Philippines (AFP) will give in to
strongman authority sooner rather than later as honorable oldies are phased out and those who get high on
power are promoted. Sal puts the chance at 85% that the military, along with the police, will be ruthless
arms of enforcement within the Philippines by the end of the Duterte term.
Free expressions such as this blog will be gone within five years, banned by a government that insists on
one version of the truth. Journalism will cease to exist. Mass media organizations will be run by
propaganda teams. Within 10 years, the internet will be controlled as China currently controls access to
the internet by its citizens. The probability that citizens will be freely able to express themselves, media
will be objective, and the internet will be open-access is less than 15%.
Lots of old people will reflect fondly on what it used to be like during the six years of sanity and hope
provided by President Noynoy Aquino. Guaranteed. 100% probability.
Summarizing, the three main themes of the Philippine future will be:
Dynastic, authoritarian government acting as an annex to China with leaders well-compensated for their
allegiances to a foreign power and money.
Independent Filipino thought and courage stripped bare as capable people leave the country and
government slots are filled by obedient but incompetent opportunists who manipulate messages received
by citizens.
Filipinos will be the best and brightest servant class in the world and, domestically, provide a huge,
inexpensive labor base for the accumulation of wealth by the elite and China.
Citation:
https://joeam.com/2017/08/04/a-vision-of-the-philippines-of-the-future/
