This document contains a workshop with 11 problems involving probability concepts such as finding the probability of events, conditional probability, binomial and normal distributions. Some key points covered include:
- Finding the probability of unions, intersections and complements of events
- Using probability formulas like the addition rule and Bayes' rule
- Calculating probabilities from contingency tables and probability mass functions
- Identifying when variables are binomial and computing their expected value and standard deviation
This document contains a workshop with 11 problems involving probability concepts such as finding the probability of events, conditional probability, binomial and normal distributions. Some key points covered include:
- Finding the probability of unions, intersections and complements of events
- Using probability formulas like the addition rule and Bayes' rule
- Calculating probabilities from contingency tables and probability mass functions
- Identifying when variables are binomial and computing their expected value and standard deviation
This document contains a workshop with 11 problems involving probability concepts such as finding the probability of events, conditional probability, binomial and normal distributions. Some key points covered include:
- Finding the probability of unions, intersections and complements of events
- Using probability formulas like the addition rule and Bayes' rule
- Calculating probabilities from contingency tables and probability mass functions
- Identifying when variables are binomial and computing their expected value and standard deviation
This document contains a workshop with 11 problems involving probability concepts such as finding the probability of events, conditional probability, binomial and normal distributions. Some key points covered include:
- Finding the probability of unions, intersections and complements of events
- Using probability formulas like the addition rule and Bayes' rule
- Calculating probabilities from contingency tables and probability mass functions
- Identifying when variables are binomial and computing their expected value and standard deviation
1. Given X = {1, 3, 5, 7, 8, 9}, Y = {2, 4, 7, 9} and Z = {1, 2, 3, 4, 7}. Find:
a) X or Z. b) X and Y . c) X and Z. d) X or Y or Z. e) X and Y and Z. f) (X or Y ) and Z. g) (Y and Z) or (X and Y ). h) X or Y . i) Y and X .
2. For two events A and B, we have P(A) = 0.47, P(B) = 0.33, and P(A and B) = 0.20. Use three decimal places in your answers below.
a) Find P(not A).
b) Find P(not B). c) Find P(A or B). d) Find P(A|B). e) Find P(B|A). f) Are events A and B disjoint? Explain briefly.
3. On the first day of class, students in a large introductory statistics course were asked their gender and eye color. The results are summarized in the table below. Round your answers to three decimal places. Gender Blue Brown Green Hazel All Female 24 21 10 11 66 Male 20 17 8 10 55 Total 44 38 18 21 121
a) What is the probability that a randomly selected student in the class has green eyes? b) What is the probability that a randomly selected student is a female?
1 c) What is the probability that a randomly selected student in the class is a female and has hazel eyes? d) What is the probability that a randomly selected student does not have green eyes? e) What is the probability that a randomly selected student in the class is a female or has brown eyes? f) What is the probability that a randomly selected student has blue eyes if we know they are female? g) What is the probability that a randomly selected student is a male, if we know that they have hazel eyes? h) Are male and blue eyes independent? Briefly justify your answer. i) Are brown and blue eyes disjoint? Explain briefly. j) Are hazel eyes and male disjoint? Explain briefly.
4. Suppose there is some medical condition that on average occurs in 1 out of every 10,000 people in the population. Further suppose there is a test for this condition that is very accurate: in 99% of cases it gives the correct result. That is, if someone has the condition the probability of giving a positive result is 99%, whereas if the person does not have the condition the probability of giving a negative result is 99%.
a) A person takes the tests positive for the condition. What is the probability they actually have the condition? b) A politician is concerned about this medical condition and suggests implementing a large screening program in which large segments of the population will be tested. What do you think about this proposal?
5. A computer science student is writing a simplified version of the classic murder-mystery
game Clue for his class project. In his implementation, there are three equally likely suspects: Miss Scarlet, Colonel Mustard, and Professor Plum. If Miss Scarlet is the mur- derer, there is a 40% chance she uses the knife, 35% chance she uses the lead pipe, and a 25% chance she uses the rope. If Colonel Mustard is the murderer, there is a 20% chance he uses the knife, a 30% chance he uses the lead pipe, and a 50% chance he uses the rope. If Professor Plum is the murderer, there is a 30% chance he uses the knife, a 40% chance he uses the lead pipe, and a 30% chance he uses the rope. Round all answers to three decimal places.
a) What is the probability that the knife is the murder weapon?
b) What is the probability that the lead pipe is the murder weapon? c) What is the probability that the rope is the murder weapon? d) Suppose while playing the game you discover that the lead pipe is the murder weapon. Given this information, what is the probability that Colonel Mustard is the murderer?
2 e) Suppose while playing the game you discover that the rope is the murder weapon. Given this information, what is the probability that the murderer is Miss Scarlet? f) Suppose while playing the game you discover that the rope is the murder weapon. Given this information, what is the probability that Colonel Mustard is the mur- derer? g) Suppose while playing the game you discover that the knife is the murder weapon. Given this information, what is the probability that Professor Plum is the murderer? h) Suppose while playing the game you discover that the knife is the murder weapon. Given this information, what is the probability that Miss Scarlet is the murderer? i) Suppose while playing the game you discover that the lead pipe is the murder weapon. Given this information, what is the probability that Professor Plum is the murderer?
6. In a certain city, 30% of the families have a MasterCard, 20% have an American Express card, and 25% have a Visa card. Eight per cent of the families have both a MasterCard and an American Express card. Twelve per cent have both a Visa card and a MasterCard. Six per cent have both an American Express card and a Visa card.
a) What is the probability of selecting a family that has either a Visa card or an Amer- ican Express card? b) If a family has a MasterCard, what is the probability that it has a Visa card? c) If a family has a Visa card, what is the probability that it has a MasterCard? d) Is possession of a Visa card independent of possession of a MasterCard? Why or why not? e) Is possession of an American Express card mutually exclusive of possession of a Visa card?
7. (Challenging) Let A and B be two events with P(A or B) = 0.75 and P(A or (not B)) = 0.8.
a) Show that P(A) = 0.55.
b) Suppose A and B are mutually exclusive. Find P(B). c) Suppose A and B are independent. Find P(B).
8. The New York Lottery has a daily game called ‘Take Five’ where you win prizes based on how many of the 5 selected numbers match your ticket. The probability function for the number of correct picks on a ticket (X ) is displayed in the table below. Round all answers to three decimal places. x 0 1 2 3 4 5 P(x) 0.483287 0.402739 0.103933 0.009744 0.000295 0.000002
a) What is the probability of getting only 1 or 2 picks correct?
3 b) What is the probability of getting fewer than 3 picks correct? c) Players of the Take Five game receive a prize for getting two or more picks correct. What is the probability of getting a prize? d) What is the mean number of correct picks on a Take Five ticket? e) Compute the variance of the number of correct picks on a Take Five ticket. f) Compute the standard deviation of the number of correct picks on a Take Five ticket.
9. Roughly 25.4% of Iowa residents are classified as obese. Suppose we take a random sample of 10 Iowa residents. Let X represent the number of residents that are obese. Round all answers to four decimal places.
a) Explain why X is a binomial random variable.
b) What is the probability that exactly 7 people are obese? c) What is the probability that more than three people are obese? d) Find the mean of the random variable X . e) Find the standard deviation of the random variable X .
10. A statistician used a computer to generate 4 random values between 0 and 9. Let X rep- resent the number of these values that are 5 or larger. Round all probability calculations to three decimal places.
a) If ‘success’ is being 5 or larger, what is the probability of success in this situation?
b) What is the probability that all 4 values are 5 or larger? c) What is the probability that 2 or more of the values are 5 or larger? d) What is the probability that 2 or 3 of the values are 5 or larger? e) Find the mean of the random variable X . f) Find the standard deviation of the random variable X .
11. (Challenging) Suppose that past experience shows that about 10% of passengers who are scheduled to take a particular flight fail to show up. For this reason, airlines sometimes overbook flights, selling more tickets than they have seats, with the expectation that they will have some no shows. Suppose an airline uses a small jet with seating for 30 passengers on a regional route and assume that passengers are independent of each other in whether they show up for the flight. Suppose that the airline consistently sells 32 tickets for every one of these flights. Round your answer to one decimal place.
a) On average, how many passengers will show up for each flight at the airport ter- minal? b) How often will they have enough seats for all of the passengers who show up for the flight? c) On average, how many passengers will be on board for each small jet flight?
