The Social Sector
Naheed Memon
Issues in Pakistan Economy
EMBA
Fall 2020
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Poverty
• Poverty is a state or condition in which a person or community lacks the
financial resources and essentials for a minimum standard of living.
• Poverty means that the income level from employment is so low that basic
human needs can't be met.
• Poverty-stricken people and families might go without proper housing,
clean water, healthy food, and medical attention. Each nation may have its
own threshold that determines how many of its people are living in poverty.
• According to World Bank's recent estimates, 10 percent of the world's population
or 734 million people lived on less than $1.90 a day.
• In the wake of COVID-19, World Bank estimates that 40 million to 60 million
additional people will fall into extreme poverty (under $1.90/day) in 2020,
compared to 2019, depending on assumptions on the magnitude of the economic
shocks.
• Under the pandemic, the global situation of poverty may become worse due to
job loss, rising prices, disruptions in supply chains, loss of remittances, education,
and health services, etc.
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Poverty and Pakistan
• The national poverty ratio, which was 31.3% in June 2018,
would sharply jump to over 40% by June 2020, said Dr Hafiz A
Pasha, the country’s renowned economist, in an article that first
appeared in Business Recorder.
• According to the Planning Commission, the poverty headcount ratio
was 24.3 percent by estimating the poverty line for this period as Rs
3,250.28 per adult equivalent per month, which represented around
50 million people living below the national poverty line in 2015-16.
• The national poverty headcount ratio at $1.90 a day (2011
purchasing power parity, % of the population) showing a declining
trend from 6.1 percent in 2013-14 to 3.9 percent in 2015-16.
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• According to UNDP Human Development Report 2019, Pakistan's
ranking in the global Human Development Index (HDI) slightly
declined to 152 in 2018 from 150 in 2017, out of 189 countries based
on Health (life expectancy at birth), Education (Expected years of
schooling) and Gross National Income (GNI) per capita.
• Pakistan's HDI value is 0.560 out of 1 as against South Asia's average
HDI value of 0.642 and the world's average HDI value of 0.731.
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Comparing Average Per Capita Income
Country Average Per Capita Income Year
Pakistan 5860 PPP dollars 2018
Bangladesh 4570 PPP dollars 2018
India 7680 PPP dollars 2018
Nepal 3110 PPP dollars 2018
Srilanka 13110 PPP dollars 2018
USA 63690 PPP dollars 2018
China 18170 PPP dollars 2018
Germany 54560 PPP dollars 2018
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Comparing Average Life expectancy
Country Life Expectancy ( years) Year
Pakistan 66.95 2017
Bangladesh 72.05 2017
India 69.16 2017
Japan 84.10 2017
Srilanka 76.65 2017
USA 78.54 2017
UK 81.16 2017
Canada 82.25 2017
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Comparing Literacy Rate
Country Literacy rate (%) Year
Pakistan 58% 2017
Bangladesh 73.91% 2017
India 77.7% 2017
Japan 99% 2017
Srilanka 96.3% 2017
USA 99 % 2017
UK 99% 2017
China 96.84% 2017
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Issues in Pakistani Economy
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Regional Poverty Comparison
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Poverty Elimination
• Pakistan's multi-sectoral poverty reduction strategy encompasses
targeted interventions, such as the Benazir Income Support
Programme (BISP), alongside private philanthropy and improved
access to microfinance.
• Key social safety initiatives include Pakistan Bait-ul-Mal, Zakat, and
Ushr programmes, Employees Old-Age Benefits Institution (EOBI), the
Worker's Welfare Funds (WWF) and provincial Employees' Social
Security Institutions.
• Creation of a dedicated Poverty Alleviation & Social Safety Division to
synergize the efforts of various organizations working for poverty
alleviation and social protection in public and private sectors;
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• Launch of Ehsaas Programme which, inter alia, includes inflation-
adjusted BISP / Ehsaas Kafaalat cash transfers, asset ownership
programme for graduation out of poverty, access to finance for the
youth, graduate and undergraduate scholarships for the poor and
needy students;
• Introduction of a Relief Package of Rs 144 billion, in the backdrop of
COVID-19, to provide immediate cash relief of Rs 12,000 per
household for four months to almost 12 million poor families under
Ehsaas Programme;
• Expanding coverage of Prime Minister's Health Insurance scheme by
launching the first phase of the countrywide Sehat-Insaf Card Scheme
to provide free medical treatment to approximately 80 million people.
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• Launch of Ehsaas-Saylani Langar Scheme, with an aim to reduce
hunger and provide hygienic food to the poor, under the
government's Ehsaas Programme;
• Construction of 'Panagahs' in major cities to provide shelter to the
homeless;
• Extension of Conditional Cash Transfer (CCT) Programme (Waseela-e-
Taleem) to another 50 districts during 2020 which involves a cash
transfer of Rs 750 and Rs 1000 per quarter to boys and girls
respectively;
• Capitalizing on Tele-health and Tele-education Facilities to expand
health and education coverage. The government has already
launched these initiatives at the pilot stage, which will be further
scaled up at the national level
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Benazir Income Support Program
• The BISP is a federal unconditional cash transfer programme for the poorest segments of the
society. Due to its importance for the current government, the budgetary allocation has been
increased from Rs 102 billion in FY2016 to Rs 180 billion in FY2020.
• The number of beneficiaries now stands at 4.5 million families.
• The BISP is following the path of automation, and almost 100 percent of beneficiaries are being
paid through a biometric-based payment solution developed by the BISP.
• The new payment solution has been designed in line with the Prime Minister's vision of financial
inclusion of poor women through one woman-one account as envisaged under the government's
flagship Ehsaas Programme.
• It will enhance choices for the beneficiaries under Kafalat to collect cash grants through
biometric verification at branchless banking retailers, an enhanced network of biometric enabled
ATMs, campsites in remote areas, and biometric-enabled bank branches.
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• BISP's targeting performance falls in the top five social safety nets in the world. Since its inception, BISP has
managed to disburse an amount of Rs 944.74 billion to UCT and conditional cash grants.
• . The conditional cash transfer (CCT) grants include the ongoing Waseela-e-Taleem (WeT) programme and
discontinued Waseela-e-Sehat, Waseela-e-Haq, and Waseela-e-Rozgar programmes
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• BISP is currently implementing the CCT ( Conditional Cash Transfer) programme linked with primary education
in 50 districts of the country.
• BISP has plans to further expand the programme coverage in additional 50 districts of the county in 2020. The
overall objective of this programme is to incentivize primary education through regular cash transfers and to
encourage investment in human capital development.
• Under this programme, top-up of Rs 750/- per quarter is distributed to the beneficiary children enrolled in primary
education conditional upon 70 percent attendance compliance.
• To promote girls' enrollment and to eliminate gender gap, cash grant for girls has been revised upwards to Rs
1,000/- per quarter from FY2020.
• BISP has so far disbursed Rs 12 billion in CCT intervention to 3.1 million children of the beneficiary
families
• BISP has designed a CCT intervention to accelerate the take up of health and nutrition services amongst its
beneficiaries.
• The programme will be piloted in 9 districts of the country to test the feasibility of implementation design in the
first phase. One district each will be selected from four provinces, and one district each will be selected from AJK
erstwhile FATA, and three districts will be selected from GB.
• The programme will cover around 122,000 beneficiaries over a period of three years.
• Along with the BISP's regular cash transfers, the mothers will be paid Rs 1,500 for baby boy and Rs 2,000 for
baby girl as an incentive, if she successfully meets all the conditions. The facilitation centers will be established at
existing district and tehsil headquarters hospitals. In this regard, the BISP is in the process of signing the MoUs with
provincial health departments.
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Unconditional Cash Transfer (UCT) Program
• The UCT Programme has been improved and strengthened as the
Kafalat Programme, through which monthly cash stipend of Rs 2,000
will be given to at least 7.0 million most deserving and poorest
women all over the country.
• At first, 4.2 million women of the BISP beneficiaries have been
included in the Kafalat programme, and further, approximately 3.0
million deserving women will be added this year, and the total
number of beneficiaries is expected to reach up to 7.0 million under
this programme by the end of 2020.
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Ehsaas Emergency Cash Program For Vulnerable/
Affected Families due to COVID-19 Pandemic
• The government has launched "Ehsaas Emergency Cash Programme,"
the biggest cash distri ution programme in the history of Pakistan,
with a total allocation of Rs 144 billion to provide immediate cash
relief of Rs 12,000 to 12 million families of daily wage earners, whose
livelihood has been severe y affected by the pandemic.
• The families within Category (ii) are being identified from the BISP
database by using a higher eligibility/PMT threshold within the
national poverty line.
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Health
• The infant mortality rate for Pakistan in 2019 was
60.219 deaths per 1000 live births, a 1.81% decline from 2018.
The infant mortality rate for Pakistan in 2018 was
61.330 deaths per 1000 live births, a 2.16% decline from 2017.
• The current life expectancy for Pakistan in 2020 is 67.33 years,
a 0.23% increase from 2019.
• The life expectancy for Pakistan in 2019 was 67.17 years,
a 0.23% increase from 2018.
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Issues in Pakistani Economy
Expanded Programme for Immunization
• Pakistan became the first country in the world to include the vaccine in its
compulsory Expanded Programme for Immunization (EPI) programme with
the introduction of Typhoid Conjugate Vaccine (TCV) into its routine
immunization programme in Sindh from November 2019.
• The EPI is now providing immunization to children against the Eight (08)
Vaccine-Preventable Diseases i.e., childhood tuberculosis, poliomyelitis,
diphtheria, Pertussis, neonatal tetanus, measles, hepatitis B and Typhoid.
• After the launch of the pilot TCV project in Sindh, the achievement was
reported to cover 93 percent of the target population (EPI, 2019). Factors
that contributed towards a successful campaign beyond effective synergy
between the EPI programme and Emergency Operation Center (EOC)
include a fully focused political leadership at federal as well as the
provincial level and effective oversight by the concerned government
officials.
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Polio Eradication Initiative (PEI) Programme
• Almost 40 million children, including 6.8 million children at schools
designated fixed points, were vaccinated during December 2019
through the National Immunization Day (NID) campaign across the
country.
• The number of children missed during the last NID campaign in April
2019 decreased from 1.8 million children to 0.5 million children in
December 2019 NID
• Vaccine procurement and social mobilization are undertaken by
UNICEF, while WHO incurs expenditures on operational activities and
environmental surveillance.
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Nutrition Security
• Pakistan, along with other developed and under developing countries
aresuffering from high rates of malnutrition. According to the
National Nutrition Survey (NNS) 2018 of Pakistan, 40 percent
ofunder-five children are stunted, 18 percent wasted, and another 29
percent are underweight.
• Overnutrition in the form of overweight also prevails among children
both in rural & urban settings and among women. About 24 percent
of the women of reproductive age are overweight, while 14 percent
are obese with a high ratio of 17 percent in urban and a lower ratio of
12 percent in rural areas.
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• The economic costs of malnutrition are high and persistent,with
approximately 3 percent ($7.6 billion) of loss of GDP every year in
Pakistan. The study shows that this loss is due to low productivity
from the poor physique, cognitive development, schooling, and
increased health care costs.
• almost 18 percent (38 million) of the country’s population is severely
food insecure.
• Moreover, since malnutrition in Pakistan primarily affects women,
improving nutrition, and lowering dietary risks would advance gender
equality.
• Reducing dietary risks would also help reduce-out-of-pocket
payments on health care, which in turn can help reduce poverty.
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• The cost of a minimum food basket providing 2,100 calories and
60gm protein/day is being calculated on a monthly basis by using
Consumer Price Index Data from the Pakistan Bureau of Statistics.
• The average monthly cost of food basket during FY2020 (Figure 11.2)
has been estimated at Rs 2,747 (from July 2019 to March 2020)
however; it gradually increased form July 2019 (Rs 2,503) to
November 2019 (Rs 2,943) and then decreased gradually by March
2020 (Rs 2,800). It showed an increase of 18 percent from the
previous year of Rs 2,37.
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Issues of Health and Malnutrition
• Nearly 10 million Pakistani children suffer from stunting.
• 8 out of 10 children in Pakistan do not eat right type and
quantity of food.
• Only 38 per cent of children are exclusively breastfed for the
first six months of life. As a result, more than half the children
under five years of age are deficient in vitamin A, 40 per cent
are deficient in both zinc and vitamin D, and nearly 62 per cent
are anaemic.
• While programs to care and treat severe acute malnutrition are
highly effective in Pakistan, achieving cure rates above global
standards, they are covering less than five per cent of the total
numbers of malnourished children.
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• Local hospitals have been treating poor people for free but they are
not able to cater to many people at a time due to lack of resources.
• Also, if patients need surgical treatment from local hospitals, then
they have to wait for a long time because of the waiting list.
• By the time their turn comes, the patient either expires or their health
gets worse.
• There is a backlog of more than 2 million surgeries in Pakistan and
the number is increasing with each passing day.
• On the other hand, people living in rural communities are not aware
of their disease due to which they are not able to get proper
treatment on time.
• There are a number of diseases that are widespread in Pakistan and
poor people are mostly suffering from them. The main reason is lack
of awareness and finance
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Top health issues in Pakistan
• Malaria
• Tuberculosis
• Dengue Fever
• Cancer
• Ischemic Hearth Disease
• Diabetes
• Hepatitis
• HIV/AIDS
• Diarrhoea
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Gender Inequality
• In Pakistan, 75% of legal frameworks that promote, enforce and monitor gender equality, with a focus on
violence against women, are in place.
• The proportion of women aged 20-24 years old who were married or in union before age 18 is 21%. The
adolescent birth rate is 46 per 1000 population as of 2016, down from 47 per 1000 population in 2015.
• As of February 2019, there are only 20.2% of parliament seats held by women.
• Women and girls aged 10+ spend 19.9% of their time on unpaid care and domestic work compared to 1.8%
spent by men.
• Women of reproductive age (aged 15-49 years) often face barriers with respect to their sexual and
reproductive health and rights: the proportion of women who have their need for family planning satisfied
with modern methods in 2013 year stood at 48.5%.
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Education
• According to the Pakistan Social and Living Standards Measurement
(PSLM) Survey 2018- 19, the literacy rate of the population (10 years
and above) is 60 percent as compared to 58 percent in 2015-16.
• The literacy rate is higher in urban areas (74 percent) than in rural
areas (51 percent).
• Province wise analysis suggests that Punjab has the highest literacy
rate, with 64 percent followed by Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Excluding Merged Areas) with 57 percent, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa
(Including Merged Areas) with 55 percent and Balochistan with 40
percent
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• Pakistan is ranked 152 out of 189 countries in the United Nations
Development Programme’s (UNDP) Human Development Index (HDI)
ranking, according to the Human Development Report, 2019.
Unfortunately, Pakistan has not exhibited improvement in key
educational indicators, such as literacy rate, gross enrolment ratio,
and expenditure on education, as compared to regional countries.
• The primary school dropout rate is 22.7 percent (3rd highest in the
region after Bangladesh and Nepal), which is alarming given it as at
the stage of formative learning.
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• The overall education situation based on the key indicators, such as enrolments,
number of institutes, and teachers, have shown a slight improvement.
• The total number of enrolments during 2017-18 was recorded at 51.0 million as
compared to 47.6 million during the same period last year, which shows an
increase of 7.1 percent.
• It is estimated to increase to 53.6 million during 2018-19. The number of
institutes stood at 262.0 thousand during 2017-18 as compared to 260.1 thousand
during last year. However, the number of institutes is estimated to increase to
266.3 thousand in 2018-19.
• The number of teachers during 2017-18 was recorded at 1.77 million as compared
to 1.73 million during the last year showing an improvement of 2.7 percent. The
number of teachers is estimated to increase to 1.83 million during 2018-19
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