Nabors Industries Inc 2Q20 Credit Report
Nabors Industries Inc 2Q20 Credit Report
OVERVIEW
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Nabors Industries Inc (NBR), based in Houston, TX owns company repurchased USD 15.8m of various unsecured
and operates one of the world's largest land-based drilling notes for USD 9.4m cash at an implied price of ~USD 59.5. Debtwire coverage
rig fleets and is a provider of offshore platform rigs in the As a result of note repurchases in the LTM, NBR's pro
United States and numerous international markets. NBR forma net debt decreased to USD 2.8bn as of 4 August DISTRESSED CREDIT | NORTH AMERICA
also provides directional drilling services, performance versus USD 3.2bn in 2Q19. Lowering pro forma net
tools, and innovative technologies for its own rig fleet and leverage to 3.7x compared to 4x at 2Q19 (peer average: Karan Vekaria
those of third parties. The company reports revenue 2.4x).
across the following segments: US Drilling (32% of 2Q20 Analyst
revenue); Canada Drilling (1%); International Drilling Despite of the company’s efforts to reduce debt, NBR’s Karan.Vekaria@acuris.com
(55%); Drilling Solutions (6%); and Rig Technologies (6%). debt levels have remained above USD 3bn for the last
decade. Sagar Joshi
Going concern
Liquidity and covenants Manager NA Credit Research (Offshore)
In the last six months, the demand for oil has been Sagar.Joshi@acuris.com
negatively impacted due to the COVID-19 and increased The company’s pro forma liquidity stood at
Saudi Arabian production in an already oversupplied USD 934m as of 4 August, comprising of USD 475m cash,
market. These factors led to a significant decline in USD 10m of short-term investments and USD 449m of In January 2019, NBR cut its quarterly dividend by
spending by the E&P companies, adversely impacting the revolver availability (see Operational Liquidity table and 83% to USD 0.01/share. The company suspended
business of energy services company. page 3 for covenants). The USD 139m 5% senior its dividend beginning 2Q20.
unsecured notes are due 15 September 2020, are Valuation, trading multiple and reverse stock split
Citing the uncertainty to generate sufficient cash flows, expected to be paid with revolver borrowings.
NBR expects to breach its net leverage covenant in FY21 NBR currently trades at an EV/NTME revenue
(refer page 3 for covenants), raising a substantial doubt Financial performance multiple of 1.9x versus the peer average of 1.4x.
over the company’s ability to continue as a going concern. Revenue fell 25% quarter-over-quarter (QoQ) and 31% Tracking subdued drilling activity across all regions
NBR is currently in talks with lenders to amend the credit year-over-year (YoY) to USD 536m in 2Q20, affected by coupled with the going concern warning, the
agreement to avoid a potential covenant breach. subdued drilling activity. The average number of working company’s 4.625% senior unsecured notes due
Fleet issues and utilization rigs declined 26% QoQ and 32% YoY to 148 in 2Q20 (see 2021 last traded at 80.8 on 27 August, down 15
page 3 for details). On LTM basis, total revenue fell 13% points YoY, yielding 27.1%. Its stock declined ~51%
Utilization rates for high-spec rigs have risen over the YoY to USD 2.7bn in 2Q20, mainly due to subdued drilling YoY to USD 40.9/share as on 28 August.
years, while older legacy rigs (ineffective in drilling shale activity.
wells) continue to become obsolete. In the last few years, At the NTME revenue market multiple of 1x, the
NBR has been either retiring its lower-specification legacy Following the decline in revenue, adjusted EBITDA fell revolving credit facility gets full recovery in our
rigs or upgrading them to higher-specification modern 18% QoQ and 22% YoY to USD 154m in 2Q20, partially base case, while the senior unsecured notes get 53%
rigs. As of 30 June, NBR had 79 fleets (20% of its total offset by a decrease in operating expenses. NBR recovery with no value remaining for the preferred
fleets) of legacy rigs, with zero utilization (see page 4 for implemented cost reduction measures in 2Q20, including and equity holders (see page 7 for Valuation
details). Since 1Q14, the company’s average fleet lower compensation and workforce reductions, which are analysis).
utilization (excluding legacy rigs) stood at 46%, whereas expected to generate savings of USD 96m through FY20. At the NTME EBITDA using market multiple of 4.7x,
its average legacy rig utilization was 17% (see page 5 for On LTM basis, adjusted EBITDA decreased 6% YoY to the revolving credit facility gets full recovery in our
details) USD 751m in 2Q20. base case, while the senior unsecured notes get 57%
While, average rig utilization rate stood at 37% in 2Q20, The company reported levered free cash flow of USD 55m recovery with no value remaining for the preferred
compared to 50% in 1Q20 and 54% in 2Q19. in 2Q20 versus USD 14m in 2Q19, as capex fell 65% YoY and equity holders (see page 7 for Valuation
to USD 47m. Sequentially, levered free cash flow analysis).
Debt and leverage decreased 25% to USD 55m in 2Q20, due to a fall in On 20 April, NBR completed 1-for-50 reverse stock
In January 2020, NBR issued USD 600m 7.25% notes due EBITDA, partially offset by lower capex. NBR guided split of its outstanding common shares.
2026 and USD 400m 7.5% notes due 2028, proceeds capex of USD 240m for FY20, down 44% YoY.
were used to repurchase a total of USD 953m of 5.5% On LTM basis, NBR recorded levered free cash flow of
notes, 4.625% notes and 5.10% notes at an average USD 285m in 2Q20 versus USD 65m in 2Q19, due to a
purchase price of USD 99. Subsequent to 30 June, the 50% YoY reduction in capex to USD 260m.
2017 2018 2019 LTM 2Q19 LTM 2Q20 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
Calendar Period
31-Dec 31-Dec 31-Dec 30-Jun 30-Jun 30-Sep 31-Dec 31-Mar 30-Jun 30-Sep 31-Dec 31-Mar 30-Jun
Operating revenues 2,564 3,058 3,043 3,133 2,725 779 782 800 771 758 714 718 534
Total revenues and other income 2,565 3,048 3,054 3,136 2,724 778 777 809 772 757 716 715 536
Direct costs (1,718) (1,977) (1,929) (2,025) (1,700) (497) (510) (521) (497) (475) (436) (462) (327)
General and administrative expenses (251) (266) (259) (256) (230) (67) (57) (68) (64) (64) (63) (57) (46)
Research and engineering (51) (56) (50) (53) (44) (14) (13) (14) (12) (12) (13) (11) (7)
Depreciation and amortization (843) (867) (876) (864) (886) (209) (227) (210) (218) (222) (226) (227) (211)
Operating income (loss) (298) (118) (61) (63) (136) (9) (30) (4) (19) (16) (22) (43) (55)
Depreciation and amortization 843 867 876 864 886 209 227 210 218 222 226 227 211
Adj. EBITDA 544 759 805 798 751 201 202 197 198 207 203 188 154
EBITDA margin 21.2% 24.9% 26.4% 25.4% 27.6% 25.8% 26.0% 24.3% 25.7% 27.4% 28.3% 26.2% 28.7%
Interest expense (223) (227) (204) (209) (206) (51) (54) (52) (51) (51) (49) (55) (51)
CAPEX (574) (459) (428) (524) (260) (129) (120) (141) (133) (92) (61) (59) (47)
Dividends paid - preferred shares - (12) (17) (17) (16) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4)
Dividends paid - common shares (69) (83) (15) (50) (11) (21) (21) (4) (4) (4) (4) (4) -
Adjusted levered free cash flow (322) (23) 141 (2) 258 (6) 3 (5) 6 56 84 66 52
Cash flow statement 2017 2018 2019 LTM 2Q19 LTM 2Q20 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
Net cash from operating activities 63 326 685 522 613 - 249 70 203 158 254 59 143
Net cash from investing activities (498) (367) (356) (495) (190) (120) (117) (144) (114) (75) (22) (51) (41)
Net cash from financing activities 512 156 (332) (245) (304) (125) (32) 59 (148) (53) (190) 38 (99)
Less:Restricted cash 1 5 3 4 3 3 5 8 4 5 3 5 3
Patterson-UTI Energy 1,491 348 136 4.3x 11.0x 1,787 954 0.8x 1.6x 19.5% 14.3% 1,000 2.9x 753 2.2x
Ensign Energy Services 1,172 247 154 4.7x 7.6x 1,004 707 1.2x 1.7x 24.6% 21.8% 1,155 4.7x 1,080 4.4x
Precision Drilling 1,193 276 154 4.3x 7.7x 981 672 1.2x 1.8x 28.1% 22.9% 1,114 4.0x 985 3.6x
Saipem 4,135 873 966 4.7x 4.3x 9,126 10,186 0.5x 0.4x 9.6% 9.5% 3,573 4.1x 1,857 2.1x
Nabors Industries Inc 3,453 751 399 4.6x 8.7x 2,724 1,771 1.3x 1.9x 27.6% 22.5% 3,290 4.4x 2,815 3.7x
Source: SEC filings, FactSet
Calendar period 2017 2018 2019 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
U.S. Drilling 805 1,083 1,241 274 304 320 323 308 290 275 174
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - 11% 5% 1% -5% -6% -5% -37%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 35% 15% - - - - 12% -5% -14% -46%
Canada Drilling 83 105 68 27 29 25 11 12 19 26 4
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - 9% -13% -55% 7% 59% 32% -86%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 27% -35% - - - - -54% -33% 1% -69%
International Drilling 1,474 1,469 1,324 377 345 337 327 328 332 337 301
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - -8% -2% -3% 0% 1% 2% -11%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 0% -10% - - - - -13% -4% 0% -8%
Drilling Solutions 141 250 253 61 67 65 65 62 60 55 33
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - 10% -2% -1% -4% -3% -8% -40%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 78% 1% - - - - 2% -9% -15% -49%
Rig Technologies 235 271 260 64 61 72 73 63 53 42 34
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - -4% 17% 1% -13% -17% -20% -20%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 16% -4% - - - - -1% -14% -41% -54%
Other reconciling items (173) (121) (103) (23) (24) (20) (28) (16) (39) (17) (11)
Total operating revenue 2,564 3,058 3,043 779 782 800 771 758 714 718 534
Source: SEC filings
RIG ACTIVITY
Calendar period 2017 2018 2019 3Q18 4Q18 1Q19 2Q19 3Q19 4Q19 1Q20 2Q20
U.S. Drilling 101 113 115 112 117 121 122 114 104 96 64
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - 5% 3% 1% -7% -9% -7% -34%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 12% 2% - - - - 2% -11% -20% -48%
Canada Drilling 15 17 11 18 18 16 7 8 12 17 2
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - 2% -11% -55% 4% 60% 37% -87%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 10% -36% - - - - -57% -33% 3% -70%
International Drilling 91 93 88 96 88 90 89 88 87 87 82
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - -8% 2% -1% -1% -1% 0% -5%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 2% -5% - - - - -9% -1% -3% -7%
Total average rigs working 207 223 215 226 224 227 218 210 204 200 148
% inc/(dec)QoQ - - - - -1% 1% -4% -4% -3% -2% -26%
% inc/(dec)YoY - 8% -4% - - - - -7% -9% -12% -32%
Source: SEC filings
Calendar Period (USD m) FY19 1Q20 2Q20 3Q20E 4Q20E FY20E 1Q21E 2Q21E NTME 2Q21E
(1)
Adj. EBITDA 805 188 154 107 99 548 95 98 399
(2)
Interest expense (204) (55) (51) (41) (41) (187) (41) (41) (162)
(3)
CAPEX (428) (59) (47) (67) (67) (240) (42) (42) (217)
Levered free cash flow 173 74 55 (0.2) (8) 120 12 15 19
(4)
Dividends paid - preferred shares (17) (4) (4) (4) (4) (15) (4) (4) (15)
FCF available for common dividends 156 70 52 (4) (12) 106 9 12 5
(5)
Dividends paid - common shares (15) (4) - - - (4) - - -
Adjusted levered free cash flow 141 66 52 (4) (12) 102 9 12 5
Source: SEC filings, FactSet
1. NTME EBITDA based on FactSet consensus dated 12 August (nine broker estimates within last one month).
2. Estimated interest expense based on the latest capital structure.
3. FY20E capex based on company guidance. 1Q21E and 2Q21E capex according to FactSet consensus dated 12 August.
4. Assuming dividend similar to 2Q20 levels.
5.The company has suspended its dividend payment beginning 2Q20.
Average fleet utlization (excluding legacy) Average Legacy rig utlization Oil price
80% 120
70%
100
60%
80
50%
40% 60
30%
40
20%
20
10%
0% 0
3Q14
2Q15
4Q15
3Q16
2Q17
4Q17
3Q18
2Q19
4Q19
1Q14
2Q14
4Q14
1Q15
3Q15
1Q16
2Q16
4Q16
1Q17
3Q17
1Q18
2Q18
4Q18
1Q19
3Q19
1Q20
2Q20
Crude Oil Prices and Share Price Performance
140
60
120
50
100
40
80
30
60
20
40
10
20
0 0
Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 Jul-20 Aug-20
Low Case (-10%) Base Case(1) High Case (+10%) Low Case (-10%) Base Case(1) High Case (+10%)
EV multiples 1,594 1,771 1,948 EV multiples 359 399 439
0.4x 638 708 779 2.7x 970 1,077 1,185
0.7x 1,116 1,240 1,364 3.7x 1,329 1,476 1,624
1.0x 1,594 1,771 1,948 4.7x 1,688 1,875 2,063
1.3x 2,072 2,302 2,533 5.7x 2,047 2,274 2,502
1.6x 2,550 2,834 3,117 6.7x 2,406 2,673 2,941
Cash and cash equivalents 475 Cash and Cash Equivalents 475
Bankruptcy fees (2) 239 Bankruptcy fees (2) 239
Revolving credit facility Outstanding 560 Revolving credit facility Outstanding 560
0.4x 100% 100% 100% 2.7x 100% 100% 100%
0.7x 100% 100% 100% 3.7x 100% 100% 100%
1.0x 100% 100% 100% 4.7x 100% 100% 100%
1.3x 100% 100% 100% 5.7x 100% 100% 100%
1.6x 100% 100% 100% 6.7x 100% 100% 100%
Senior unsecured notes Outstanding 2,730 Senior unsecured notes Outstanding 2,730
0.4x 11% 14% 17% 2.7x 24% 28% 32%
0.7x 29% 34% 38% 3.7x 37% 42% 48%
1.0x 46% 53% 59% 4.7x 50% 57% 64%
1.3x 64% 72% 81% 5.7x 63% 71% 80%
1.6x 82% 92% 100% 6.7x 76% 86% 96%
1. Based on FactSet consensus dated 12 August (nine broker estimates within last one month).
2. Bankruptcy fees assumed to be 4% of the total assets as of 30 June, based on Pioneer Energy Services Corp disclosure statement dated 28 February 2020.
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