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Assignment On Forecasting 2020

This document contains two sections on forecasting topics. Section A provides time series data on gasoline sales over 12 weeks and asks to forecast the demand for week 13 using three moving average models and calculate accuracy metrics. Section B provides data on store size and profits for several fashion boutiques. It asks to determine the linear regression equation and predict profits for a 3800 square foot store.

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Kim Jennie
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170 views2 pages

Assignment On Forecasting 2020

This document contains two sections on forecasting topics. Section A provides time series data on gasoline sales over 12 weeks and asks to forecast the demand for week 13 using three moving average models and calculate accuracy metrics. Section B provides data on store size and profits for several fashion boutiques. It asks to determine the linear regression equation and predict profits for a 3800 square foot store.

Uploaded by

Kim Jennie
Copyright
© © All Rights Reserved
We take content rights seriously. If you suspect this is your content, claim it here.
Available Formats
Download as DOCX, PDF, TXT or read online on Scribd
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Name: _________________________________ Section: ____________

Topic: FORECASTING Due Date: DEC. 23, 2020

A. Time Series Forecasting

The following data show the number of liters of gasoline sold by Shell in Batac City for the past 12
weeks.

Actual Forecasting (1000 liters)


Week Demand
FSMA /A-F/ FWMA /A-F/ FES, α=0.3 /A-F/
(1000 liters)
1 17
2 21
3 19
4 23
5 18
6 16
7 20
8 18
9 22
10 20
11 15
12 22
13
MAD
MSE
MAPE

1. Forecast the demand using 3-week simple moving average model.


2. Using a weight of 0.4 for the most recent observation, 0.3 for the second most recent, 0.2 for
the third most recent, and 0.1 for the fourth most recent, forecast demand using 4-week
weighted moving average model.
3. Forecast demand using exponential smoothing model with α=0.3.
4. Calculate the MAD, MSE, and MAPE for each of the above forecasting models. Which forecasting
model would you recommend to Petron’s manager? Why?
5. What demand forecast would you recommend for week 13?

B. Linear Regression

Lizzie wants to open a fashion boutique business. Before selecting a location, she would like to be able
to predict the profit (in pesos) that the store maybe expected to earn per hundred square feet of selling
price. She gathered the following data:

Store Size (100 sq.ft) Profit (P10,000)


35 20
22 15
27 17
16 9
28 16
12 7
40 22
32 23
1. Solve for the y-intercept and the slope. Form the equation of the regression line.

ANSWER: ______________________

2. Predict the profit of the fashion boutique business when the store measures 3800 feet.

ANSWER: ______________________

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