For release at 2:00 p.m.

, EDT, September 16, 2020

Table 1. Economic projections of Federal Reserve Board members and Federal Reserve Bank presidents,
under their individual assumptions of projected appropriate monetary policy, September 2020

Percent
Median1 Central Tendency2 Range3
Variable 2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer 2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer 2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer
run run run
Change in real GDP -3.7 4.0 3.0 2.5 1.9 -4.0– -3.0 3.6–4.7 2.5–3.3 2.4–3.0 1.7–2.0 -5.5–1.0 0.0–5.5 2.0–4.5 2.0–4.0 1.6–2.2
June projection -6.5 5.0 3.5 1.8 -7.6– -5.5 4.5–6.0 3.0–4.5 1.7–2.0 -10.0– -4.2 -1.0–7.0 2.0–6.0 1.6–2.2
Unemployment rate 7.6 5.5 4.6 4.0 4.1 7.0–8.0 5.0–6.2 4.0–5.0 3.5–4.4 3.9–4.3 6.5–8.0 4.0–8.0 3.5–7.5 3.5–6.0 3.5–4.7
June projection 9.3 6.5 5.5 4.1 9.0–10.0 5.9–7.5 4.8–6.1 4.0–4.3 7.0–14.0 4.5–12.0 4.0–8.0 3.5–4.7
PCE inflation 1.2 1.7 1.8 2.0 2.0 1.1–1.3 1.6–1.9 1.7–1.9 1.9–2.0 2.0 1.0–1.5 1.3–2.4 1.5–2.2 1.7–2.1 2.0
June projection 0.8 1.6 1.7 2.0 0.6–1.0 1.4–1.7 1.6–1.8 2.0 0.5–1.2 1.1–2.0 1.4–2.2 2.0
Core PCE inflation4 1.5 1.7 1.8 2.0 1.3–1.5 1.6–1.8 1.7–1.9 1.9–2.0 1.2–1.6 1.5–2.4 1.6–2.2 1.7–2.1
June projection 1.0 1.5 1.7 0.9–1.1 1.4–1.7 1.6–1.8 0.7–1.3 1.2–2.0 1.2–2.2
Memo: Projected
appropriate policy path
Federal funds rate 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1–0.4 2.3–2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1–0.6 0.1–1.4 2.0–3.0
June projection 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 2.3–2.5 0.1 0.1 0.1–1.1 2.0–3.0

Note: Projections of change in real gross domestic product (GDP) and projections for both measures of inflation are percent changes from the fourth quarter of
the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated. PCE inflation and core PCE inflation are the percentage rates of change in, respectively, the price index
for personal consumption expenditures (PCE) and the price index for PCE excluding food and energy. Projections for the unemployment rate are for the average
civilian unemployment rate in the fourth quarter of the year indicated. Each participant’s projections are based on his or her assessment of appropriate monetary
policy. Longer-run projections represent each participant’s assessment of the rate to which each variable would be expected to converge under appropriate monetary
policy and in the absence of further shocks to the economy. The projections for the federal funds rate are the value of the midpoint of the projected appropriate
target range for the federal funds rate or the projected appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer
run. The June projections were made in conjunction with the meeting of the Federal Open Market Committee on June 9–10, 2020. One participant did not submit
longer-run projections for the change in real GDP, the unemployment rate, or the federal funds rate in conjunction with the June 9–10, 2020, meeting, and one
participant did not submit such projections in conjunction with the September 15–16, 2020, meeting.
1. For each period, the median is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the
median is the average of the two middle projections.
2. The central tendency excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year.
3. The range for a variable in a given year includes all participants’ projections, from lowest to highest, for that variable in that year.
4. Longer-run projections for core PCE inflation are not collected.
 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 16, 2020

Figure 1. Medians, central tendencies, and ranges of economic projections, 2020–23 and over the longer run

Percent
Change in real GDP
6
5
4
3
2
Actual 1
0
−1
−2
−3
Median of projections
−4
Central tendency of projections −5
Range of projections −6

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer
run

Percent
Unemployment rate
8

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer
run

Percent
PCE inflation
3

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer
run

Note. Definitions of variables and other explanations are in the notes to table 1. The data for the actual values of
the variables are annual.
 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 16, 2020

Figure 2. FOMC participants’ assessments of appropriate monetary policy: Midpoint of target range
or target level for the federal funds rate

Percent
5.0

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

2020 2021 2022 2023 Longer run

Note. Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest 1/8 percentage point) of an individual
participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the federal funds rate or the appropriate
target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the specified calendar year or over the longer run. One participant
did not submit longer-run projections for the federal funds rate.
 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 16, 2020

Explanation of Economic Projections Charts

The charts show actual values and projections for three economic variables, based on
FOMC participants’ individual assessments of appropriate monetary policy:
• Change in Real Gross Domestic Product (GDP)—as measured from the fourth
quarter of the previous year to the fourth quarter of the year indicated.
• Unemployment Rate—the average civilian unemployment rate in the fourth
quarter of each year.
• PCE Inflation—as measured by the change in the personal consumption
expenditures (PCE) price index from the fourth quarter of the previous year to
the fourth quarter of the year indicated.

Information for these variables is shown for each year from 2015 to 2023, and for the longer
run.

The solid blue line, labeled “Actual,” shows the historical values for each variable.

The solid red lines depict the median projection in each period for each variable. The
median value in each period is the middle projection when the projections are arranged from
lowest to highest. When the number of projections is even, the median is the average of the
two middle projections.

The range and central tendency for each variable in each projection period are depicted in
“box and whiskers” format. The blue connected horizontal and vertical lines (“whiskers”)
represent the range of the projections of policymakers. The bottom of the range for each
variable is the lowest of all of the projections for that year or period. Likewise, the top of
the range is the highest of all of the projections for that year or period. The light blue
shaded boxes represent the central tendency, which is a narrower version of the range that
excludes the three highest and three lowest projections for each variable in each year or
period.

The longer-run projections, which are shown on the far right side of the charts, are the rates
of growth, unemployment, and inflation to which a policymaker expects the economy to
converge over time—maybe in five or six years—in the absence of further shocks and under
appropriate monetary policy. Because appropriate monetary policy, by definition, is aimed at
achieving the Federal Reserve’s dual mandate of maximum employment and price stability in
the longer run, policymakers’ longer-run projections for economic growth and
unemployment may be interpreted, respectively, as estimates of the economy’s normal or
trend rate of growth and its normal unemployment rate over the longer run. The longer-run
projection shown for inflation is the rate of inflation judged to be most consistent with the
Federal Reserve’s dual mandate.
 For release at 2:00 p.m., EDT, September 16, 2020

Explanation of Policy Path Chart

Each shaded circle indicates the value (rounded to the nearest ⅛ percentage point) of an
individual participant’s judgment of the midpoint of the appropriate target range for the
federal funds rate or the appropriate target level for the federal funds rate at the end of the
specified calendar year or over the longer run.