Waard - Private Security (1999)
Waard - Private Security (1999)
Waard - Private Security (1999)
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Jaap De Waard
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JAAP DE WAARD
In recent years, one of the main avenues of research in the criminal justice
system has been the comparative study, carried out to assess the differences
between countries regarding legislation, developments in crime levels,
and investments in manpower in the criminal justice system. The fact that
this type of research is being given high priority is understandable in view
of the rapid progress being made towards European integration and
internationalisation, which is having a major influence on economic, social,
and legal developments. These days countries also have to protect their
democratic institutions and open markets against various forms of crime
more frequently. The internationalisation of criminal activity is a problem
that has become increasingly serious, and this trend is likely to continue
in the future. This is as a result of: high rates of emigration; the ease of
travel and communication; the use of English as a common language;
advanced technology and the ability to instantaneously move assets; the
Legislation
In recent years, the private security industry has developed rapidly in the
Netherlands as regards the provision of security services. The last two
148 JAAP DE WAARD
TABLE I
Number of security personnel in the Dutch private security industry, 1981–1997.
Year Security In-house Alarm High Total
firms security monitoring security
stations transport
Absolute Index Absolute Index Absolute Index Absolute Index Absolute Index
1981 4,348 100 5,175 100 185 100 519 100 10,227 100
1986 6,033 139 5,980 116 286 155 663 128 12,962 127
1991 10,433 240 5,462 106 586 307 856 165 17,329 169
1996 15,574 358 3,187 62 503 272 986 187 20,232 198
1997 19,306 440 3,374 65 559 302 953 184 24,192 237
TABLE II
Number of Dutch firms, 1992–1997.
Year 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998
Security firms 151 158 200 237 277 306 317
In-house security services 270 275 284 299 293 292 304
Central stations 33 33 33 34 33 32 32
Transport of cash and valuables 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
TABLE III
Dutch private security industry: turnover, 1987—1996 (in million guilders).a
Total Small firms Medium firms Large firms
(1–9 persons) (10–99 persons) (over 100 persons)
1987 340.1 13.8 79.8 246.5
1988 387.2 31.4 94.1 261.7
1989 470.2 28.3 101.8 340.1
1990 539.8 18.3 115.1 406.3
1991 616.4 20.8 110.5 485.0
1992 702.2 19.3 116.1 566.8
1993 751.2 25.1 134.7 591.4
1994 944.1 15.1 167.8 744.9
1995 1,082.2 24.6 168.2 889.3
1996 1,216.5 37.6 179.7 999.1
Source: CBS, 1998 (authors’ adaptation).
a
Excluded in-house security services.
TABLE IV
Absolute and relative number of personnel by order of ranking of the private security
industry in the European Union: 1996.
Country Population (× 1,000) Personnel Total Personnel per
100,000 inhabitants
Britain 58,191 160,000 275 (1)a
Germany 81,187 176,000 217 (2)
Luxembourg 398 800 201 (3)
Denmark 5,189 10,000 193 (4)
Sweden 8,713 16,000 184 (5)
Portugal 9,864 15,000 152 (6)
Ireland 3,563 5,150 143 (7)
Spain 39,143 53,000 135 (8)
The Netherlands 15,287 20,200 132 (9)
France 57,667 70,000 121 (10)
Belgium 10,085 11,200 109 (11)
Italy 57,057 43,200 76 (12)
Austria 7,992 6,000 75 (13)
Finland 5,066 3,500 69 (14)
Greece 10,368 2,000 19 (15)
Europe (15 countries) 369,770 592,050 160
a
The number in parentheses represents each country’s rank in each category among the
European Union.
with the different definitions of what comes under the rubric ‘private
security’, the lack of official data on which to base estimates in most
countries, and problems caused by functional diversification within the
industry (Jones and Newburn 1998, p. 55). The author agrees with
Johnston’s (1992) observation that we should regard estimates of numbers
employed in the security industry with a great deal of caution with such
estimates being seen as, at best, broad indicators rather than exact measures.
A replication of this effort could promote discussion and stimulate
international comparative research in this area.
Table IV shows, by order of ranking, the absolute numbers and the
relative number of people employed in the private security industry per
100,000 inhabitants in the EU-countries. The period of reference is late
1996. From Table IV it can be seen that within the EU almost 600,000 people
are employed in the private security industry, equivalent to 160 for every
100,000 inhabitants. Of this total, 75% work for private security companies
with the others employed in an in-house capacity. The average work force
is 87 employees per firm. This estimate is in line with the estimate of the
154 JAAP DE WAARD
TABLE V
Absolute and relative number of personnel by order of ranking of the private security
industry outside the European Union: 1996.
Country Population Personnel total Personnel per
(× 1,000) 100,000 inhabitants
South Africa 40,436 363,928 900
USA 257,908 1,500,000 582
Australia 17,939 92,583 516
Bulgaria 8,427 40,000 475
Canada 28,941 125,025 432
New Zealand 3,577 5,478 153
Lithuania 3,718 4,500 121
Norway 4,313 4,838 112
Switzerland 6,938 7,500 108
Poland 38,581 10,000 26
Czech Republic 10,333 2,500 24
Turkey 61,113 6,000 10
TABLE VI
Absolute and relative number of private security employees and police employees in the
European Union and some other countries.
Country Population Private Security Private security Police Police
(× 1,000) personnel per 100,000 personnel per 100,000
Total inhabitants Total inhabitants
Austria 7,992 6,000 75 29,000 362
Belgium 10,085 11,200 109 34,712 344
Britain 58,191 160,000 275 185,156 318
Denmark 5,189 10,000 193 12,230 236
Finland 5,066 3,500 69 11,816 233
France 57,667 70,000 121 227,008 394
Germany 81,187 176,000 217 260,132 320
Greece 10,368 2,000 19 39,335 379
Ireland 3,563 5,150 143 10,829 304
Italy 57,057 43,200 76 278,640 488
Luxembourg 398 800 201 1,100 276
The Netherlands 15,287 20,200 132 39,216 256
Portugal 9,864 15,000 152 43,459 440
Spain 39,143 53,000 135 186,547 477
Sweden 8,713 16,000 184 27,000 310
Total EU 369,770 592,050 160 1,386,180 375
Non EU-countries
Australia 17,939 92,583 516 51,486 287
Canada 28,941 125,025 432 75,364 260
New Zealand 3,577 5,478 153 6,967 195
Norway 4,313 4,200 97 10,100 234
South Africa 40,436 363,928 900 126,300 312
Switzerland 6,938 7,500 108 14,210 205
USA 257,908 1,500,000 582 828,435 321
Table V indicates that South Africa is well in the lead world wide as
regards security services. The USA, Australia, Bulgaria, and Canada also
have high positions in the world’s security market. For some of the
countries mentioned in Table V some brief information is given on recent
developments. Profiles of EU-countries are presented later in this
contribution.
South Africa
The private security industry has grown dramatically in South Africa
since 1990 with an estimated total value of just under 6 billion Rand.
Official figures show that in 1997 there were 4,345 companies and 363,928
156 JAAP DE WAARD
TABLE VII
Size and order of ranking of the police force and the private security industry in the
member states of the EU and some other countries per 100,000 inhabitants.
Country Police (A) Private security (B) Total personnel (A+B) Ratio (A/B)
Italy 488 (1)a 76 (12) 564 (4) 0.16 (14)
Spain 477 (2) 135 (8) 612 (1) 0.28 (12)
Portugal 440 (3) 152 (6) 592 (3) 0.35 (8)
France 394 (4) 121 (10) 515 (6) 0.31 (10)
Greece 379 (5) 19 (15) 398 (13) 0.05 (15)
Austria 362 (6) 75 (13) 437 (11) 0.21 (13)
Belgium 344 (7) 109 (11) 453 (9) 0.32 (9)
Germany 320 (8) 217 (2) 537 (5) 0.68 (4)
Britain 318 (9) 275 (1) 593 (2) 0.86 (1)
Sweden 310 (10) 184 (5) 494 (7) 0.59 (5)
Ireland 304 (11) 143 (7) 447 (10) 0.47 (7)
Luxembourg 276 (12) 201 (3) 477 (8) 0.73 (3)
The Netherlands 256 (13) 132 (9) 388 (14) 0.52 (6)
Denmark 236 (14) 193 (4) 429 (12) 0.82 (2)
Finland 233 (15) 69 (14) 302 (15) 0.30 (11)
EU-countries
average 375 160 535 0.43
Non-EU-countries
Australia 287 516 803 1.80
Canada 260 432 692 1.66
New Zealand 195 153 348 0.78
Norway 234 112 346 0.48
South Africa 312 900 1212 2.88
Switzerland 205 108 313 0.53
USA 321 582 903 1.80
a
The number in parentheses represents each country’s rank in each category among the
European Union.
Poland
On 27 March 1998, the new law on security services came into force. Its
provisions have regulated the issuing of licenses to security firms, and
have introduced the licensing of employees. It is mandatory to complete a
training course if the security employee is armed. There is general
supervision by the Minister of the Interior. Between 100 and 150 companies
are active in the industry, employing about 10,000 security guards (rough
estimate).
Norway
With regard to the private security industry, there is comprehensive and
wide regulation enacted in the Law of 13 May 1988. Currently, 184 private
security firms are operating with a total of 4,838 employees. It is anticipated
that the industry will expand over the next few years. The police force
numbers 10,078 personnel.
Republic of Macedonia
There is no legislation that addresses the issue of private security. At the
end of 1996, the Ministry of the Interior introduced a draft law on the
protection of people and property that regulates the private security industry.
Seven private security agencies are officially registered. In the coming
years the size of the sector is expected to grow, expanding in size as well
as resources. There is no information on manpower and turnover. Police
personnel in 1997 numbered around 10,000.
Turkey
The private security industry is not regulated at all. Anybody can start a
business with no questions asked. However, it is expected that within five
years some regulation will be introduced. Some 250 companies were
operating in 1997, with a total number of 6,000 employees. As Turkey’s
158 JAAP DE WAARD
crime rate is expected to rise over the next 10 years, it is anticipated that
there will also be a boom in the private security industry over the same
period. Personnel in Turkey’s police force number around 150,000.
Bulgaria
Some 1,100 private security firms operate in Bulgaria, and lax gun control
laws in the past have allowed some 40,000 employees of such groups to
bear arms. Members of the former communist police and security forces,
primarily staff these firms. Current members of the security forces also
often moonlight for such firms. Some of these firms that provide security
for expatriate homes, warehouses and offices actually commit robberies
at those premises or perpetrate extortion attempts against their owners.
Although private security firms have faced increasingly stringent licensing
requirements, and privately owned weapons have been subject to re-
registration since January 1995, there has been little change in the reliability
of such organisations.
Republic of Lithuania
The industry is regulated by the Regulations on Protection of Individual
and Property Law of 12 March 1993. This law has been partially changed
by the decision No. 1099 of 7 October 1997. At the beginning of 1997
there were 383 companies active, employing about 4,500 security guards.
Numbers of police (excluding border police) 1994: 16,086; 1995: 19,213;
1996: 19,181; 1997: 19,372. Numbers of border police in 1994: 5,000; 1995:
5,000; 1996: 5,350; 1997: 5,350.
Czech Republic
Presently the industry is not covered by any special legislation. The private
security industry is mentioned in the Czech Trade Act. Special legislation
is currently under consideration by the Ministry of the Interior, department
of Administrative Agendas. It is highly likely that this legislation will be
introduced. A special unit will be created in the Ministry of the Interior to
enforce and control requirements of the proposed law. Unofficially, there
are approximately 2,500 private or legitimately registered persons who are
licensed to provide security services. An unofficial estimate on turnover is
120 million US$.
Australia
Historically, criminal law, the plethora of company laws, and other civil
laws applicable to any commercial enterprise have regulated the security
industry in Australia. In the public debate, the majority view appears to
THE PRIVATE SECURITY INDUSTRY 159
Russia
Russia is an extreme example of a lawless country. That is why potential
victims in Russia often turn to commercial protection services, in the
form of private security. In Russia, there is reported to be 10 times more
private policemen than militiamen (Economist 19 April 1997). Whether
or not the growth of private policing in some Central and Eastern
European countries – in particular in Russia – is beneficial to (potential)
victims is questionable. The distinction between private security and
160 JAAP DE WAARD
The problems encountered while attempting to assess the size of the private
security industry were also evident when it came to estimating the size of
the various police forces in and outside the EU. To get a picture of these
estimates, a short study on the available information was produced. From
this study it emerged that estimates given for the size of police forces
varied considerably. For example, Italian police personnel were estimated
to number 200,660 by Kangaspunta (1995), 301,492 by Benyon et al.
(1994), and 257,000 by Bunyan (1993). These differences were also
observed for a number of other countries. It was therefore decided to
gather up these estimates by contacting persons and organisations within
and outside the various EU-member states. The term ‘police personnel’
includes not only sworn officers who have the power to arrest, but also
administrative personnel. Table VI combines the size of the private security
industry and the size of the police forces.
What is very apparent from Tables VI and VII for the EU is the large
number of police in Southern European countries such as Italy, Spain,
Portugal, France and Greece. They are all above the average EU-figure of
375 per 100,000 inhabitants. This is in sharp contrast with the size of the
private security industry, as shown in Table IV. Here we find Northern
Europe at the top of the list. For the EU-states with data on both the security
industry and police personnel, it is possible to calculate the combined
number. The mean number is 535 per 100,000. Countries with the highest
ranking for combined security forces are Spain, Great Britain, Portugal and
Italy. Countries with the lowest ranking are Greece, the Netherlands, and
Finland. Looking at the ratio between the private security industry and the
police, it appears that Great Britain, Denmark, Luxembourg, and Germany
are the leaders in the EU.
When we take a closer look at the police strength in seven non-EU
countries it appears that they are all below the EU-average of 375. When
we look at the total number of personnel in the field of security and law
and order, South Africa is the outright leader, followed internationally by
the USA, Australia, and Canada. The ratio between column B and A in
Table VII is far above the EU-average of 0.43.
THE PRIVATE SECURITY INDUSTRY 161
TABLE VIII
The quality of the private security industry in the EU.
Country Order of ranking
Sweden 1
The Netherlands 2
Belgium 3
Denmark 4
Italy 5
Spain 6
Finland 7
Portugal 8
France 9
Luxembourg 10
Ireland 11
Britain 12
Austria 13
Germany 14
Greece 15
apparent, when compared with the quality of the private security industry,
are the modest positions in Table IX of Sweden, the Netherlands, and
Belgium.
TABLE IX
Order of ranking of the effectiveness of the police forces in the EU and seven non-EU-
countries.a
Country WEF scoreb Order of ranking
Norway 6,50 (2) 1
Australia 6,28 (3) 2
Switzerland 6,26 (4) 3
UK 6,23 (5) 4
Canada 6,20 (6) 5
Ireland 6,08 (8) 6
Austria 6,00 (9) 7
Finland 6,00 (9) 7
Germany 5,94 (11) 9
Denmark 5,92 (12) 10
France 5,85 (13) 11
USA 5,85 (13) 11
Luxembourg 5,83 (15) 13
The Netherlands 5,81 (16) 14
Sweden 5,52 (21) 15
New Zealand 5,50 (22) 16
Spain 5,30 (24) 17
Portugal 5,06 (27) 18
Italy 4,67 (30) 19
Belgium 4,65 (31) 20
Greece 3,72 (38) 21
South Africa 1,85 (53) 22
a
Survey statement: The police in your country effectively safeguard personal security so
that this is an important consideation in business activity (1 = strongly disagree, 7 =
strongly agree).
b
The number in parentheses represents the WEF ranking of the 53 countries involved.
Non-interventionist Regulation
In this model there exists no statutory national standard for entry into any
of the major sectors of the private security industry (Great Britain, Greece
and the Republic of Ireland).
Great Britain
There are no government regulations governing the private security industry
in Great Britain. The debate on security industry legislation in Great Britain
was stimulated by the publication of a Private Member’s Bill in 1977,
introduced by Bruce George, MP. His main aim was to make the industry
more efficient, by addressing low wages, poor working conditions, and the
problem of little or no training. Since then various bills have been put forward,
but none has become law. Since the British Government did not introduce
any legislation, the British Security Industry Association (BSIA) has taken
on the task of laying down guidelines and codes of conduct for its members.
These guidelines are binding.
The Labour Party has long campaigned for effective legislation of the
industry. Strong legislation will force the so-called ‘cowboy firms’ to quit
the business. The new Labour Government is committed to introducing
statutory measures to regulate the private security industry to ensure that
suitable individuals are attracted to the industry. Although the new
Government has already made rapid progress, legislation has not yet been
introduced in Parliament. This means that anyone can set up a private
security organisation without any major restrictions. However, under
Section 52 of the Police Act 1964, it is an offence to wear a uniform to
impersonate a police officer. The use of guard dogs is controlled under
the Guard Dogs Act 1975. As a matter of general policy it is illegal for
civilians to carry firearms for self-protection or for the protection of others
or their property.
Republic of Ireland
The Republic of Ireland is one of three countries in the EU which have
no statutory regulation governing the private security industry. Over the
last 20 years the industry has experienced significant growth. There are
plans to regulate an, as yet, unregulated industry. On 16 May 1997 the
Minister for Justice announced that the Government had agreed to establish
a Consultative Group on the private security industry, to review activities
in the industry and to provide a forum for discussion on regulation of
the industry (Hanley 1998). The Group concluded that further scope
for voluntary regulation had been exhausted and that the time was now
right to establish a statutory body that would introduce, control and manage
a comprehensive licensing system for the industry. The system should
involve the introduction of licences for individuals and companies in the
166 JAAP DE WAARD
In this model there are only minimal standards, and the sectors regulated
do not extend beyond parts of the manned guarding sector and/or private
investigators (Austria, Germany and Italy).
Germany
Germany has no separate legislation on the private security industry.
Paragraph 34a of the Trade Regulation Act applies to the establishment of
a private security organisation. This provision reads: “Anyone who wishes
to guard the life or property of third persons on a professional basis must
obtain a licence”. This paragraph was tightened up on 28 October 1994 by
the Crime Control Act (Verbrechensbekämpfungsgesetz). Specific rules
were given in relation to training and basic security knowledge. Since 23
November 1994 it has also been possible to check the criminal antecedents
of security personnel. In addition, the Firearms Law applies to the
possession and use of weapons by security personnel. It is not expected
that changes to the legislation will take place in the near future. The size
of the German private security industry is expected to expand in the years
to come.
Luxembourg
The private security industry in Luxembourg is governed by Loi du 6 juin
1990 relative aux activités privées de gardiennage et de surveillance.
It applies to broad categories of the industry. There are minimal basic
admission requirements and performance and training requirements.
Government control is minimal, and sanctions are modest.
Denmark
The operation of the privately owned security industry is regulated by
Act No. 266 of 22 May 1986. This is the ‘Law on security services’, Act
No. 936 of 27 December 1991, ‘on alteration of different provisions on
business activities on the basis of authorisation’. Regulation No. 936 of
23 December 1986 ‘on the security industry’ also belongs to the
regulatory framework. The Act is in five parts, each covering a particular
type of security service. The Danish Ministry of Justice is presently
working on an alteration to the Regulation ‘on the security industry’, as
regards the running of the commercial security industry by public
authorities as well as the provisions pertaining to the training of
personnel. Current legislation on the security industry comprises
conditions for authorisation and conditions for implementation, as well
as conditions concerning training and education, uniforms, identification,
government control and sanctions. It is expected that an expansion will
take place within the industry relating to duties in locations that have
public access, such as pedestrian streets, shopping centres, parks etcetera.
The Danish police do not participate in public/private commercial
partnerships.
Portugal
The private security industry in Portugal is regulated by the Decree-Law
276 of 10 August 1993. Activities are licensed and controlled by the
Ministry of Internal Affairs. There is at present a Bill that aims to improve
the legal framework to promote the simplification of licensing procedures,
to improve the fiscal system and to harmonise it with European rules. The
168 JAAP DE WAARD
Belgium
On 10 April 1991 the Belgium private security industry got its legal basis
with the law on security and in-house security services. It was amended
on 28 August 1997. The key points of the legislation are very similar to
those in the Netherlands (see above). The exceptions are that wearing a
uniform is optional and weapons may be carried provided specific training
has been received. A strict distinction is made between manned guarding
activities and the more technological activities, such as the design,
installation and maintenance of alarm systems. Both are governed by a
separate Royal Decree. Special provisions relate to non-intervention in a
political or industrial dispute.
GENERAL CONCLUSIONS
375 per 100,000 inhabitants for the police, the private security industry
average of 160 is still small. The ratio in the EU between the private
security industry and the police is 0.43. The private security industry in
Europe is the secondary source of protection, while it is the primary source
of protection in North America and elsewhere. Here we see ratios of 1.66
for Canada, 1.80 for the USA, and 2.31 for Australia. The absolute
‘champion’ in the security industry is South Africa. Here almost one person
per 100 inhabitants is employed by protective services.
The private security industry is, like many other occupational groups,
segmented. Differentiation exists on the basis of personal characteristics,
recruitment and training, work preferences, and orientations to different
key audiences. At the international level, the industry has become part of
a wider order that includes the maintenance of law and order and crime
prevention systems. The police and the industry both share responsibility for
crime prevention and protection. The police and public have to accept that
the security industry now performs a role, vital for community safety. Its role
is primarily concerned with deterrence. It has a pro-active approach, whereas
the police often have a reactive approach. However, there is a fundamental
distinction between private and public policing: private security services are
bought and sold on the open market, while public policing should be available
to all. The police force is one of the most basic forms of public service. The
police are given particular powers because they are accountable to
government, and thereby to the public at large. This accountability in most
countries is subject to statutory regulations.
The private security industry, by contrast, is not accountable to the public,
but to the clients who contract for its services. It is argued (Hoddinott 1994)
that the powers enjoyed by the private security industry demand the sort
of accountability that only the police are required to have. Regulation is
then linked with public accountability. What becomes clear from the brief
overview on legislation is that at the international level such regulations vary
widely between countries. Of course this legislation is liable to change. In
most countries there is some form of legislation. Notable exceptions are
Great Britain, Ireland, and Greece. In most EU-countries authorisation
requirements and operating conditions are imposed. In general, they are
the same for all countries. There are wide variations in the requirements
and duration of the various training systems in the EU. As regards
equipment (uniforms, weapons, identity cards, and use of dogs), the
legislation is largely similar throughout the EU. As regards government
control there is a wide variety between countries. There are also great
variations in the number of possible sanctions when companies fail to
respect the provisions of the law and its implementation.
170 JAAP DE WAARD
Direct regulation is probably the most common method for reducing the
number of ‘cowboy firms’ within the industry, and the most effective way to
ensure the quality of the private security industry. From the analysis on the
quality of the private security industry it appears that the comprehensive
system of regulation seems to be more effective in producing a higher quality
service. Some global trends call for much more active and explicit international
co-ordination in the field of regulation. There is, for example, little doubt that
the advantages of international interaction, networking, and co-ordination will
be part of the industry’s objective. However, achieving international
agreement on a regulatory framework will be difficult, as evidenced by the
limited progress made in this area so far.
As a last point, governments in Eastern Europe often lack the necessary
information to enable them to determine the regulation needed. Much can
thus be gained from international best practices, exchange and collabora-
tion. The goal of this exchange is to avoid unnecessary regulation that is
later found to be unworkable. There is, for the moment, a regulatory void
in Eastern and Central Europe and the former Soviet Union, as the industry
only truly began to develop post-1989. A fundamental problem is the
paucity of information available in the English language on private
security. Furthermore in non-English speaking countries, the information
on the industry is of variable quality and volume. Given the limited resources
in most East-European countries’ regulatory frameworks should not
attempt to over-regulate the industry. The enforcement of comprehensive
and wide regulation is simply not possible. Here a comprehensive and narrow
model is more appropriate. Regulation and the enforcement should be
carried out by a credible and neutral (government) body.
Expected Developments
In this final section attention is given to future prospects. On the basis of
available literature and expectations of the respondents, it is possible to
detect the following developments within the private security industry.
Generally, it is expected that an expansion will take place within the private
security industry, both in respect of size and gross revenues. The ratios
between private and public policing will be on an average in many countries.
Many governments will direct the police along the route of competition,
value for money, tight budgetary accountability, and quality checks by
customer consultation. This will give the private security industry an
incentive to compete more with police organisations.
The police will accept that the security industry can in fact add value to
its own core activities. Contracting out of non-core police functions can
THE PRIVATE SECURITY INDUSTRY 171
help the police to provide higher standards of services to the public (police
as ‘specialists’). Contracting out enables the more costly (to employ) police
officers to concentrate on the duties for which they are trained and to
maximise their potential. A more cost-effective level of police services is
the result.
The monopoly of using force in democratic societies will continue to
be the exclusive domain of the police. This will ensure transparency
between public and private actions.
In some parts of the world, the job of security guard will be one of the
fastest growing occupations. The industry will, in the main, take over the
job of protecting civilians. People will return to the medieval concept of a
city, where citizens live behind town walls patrolled by guards, and where
access is possible only at controlled gates (McRae 1994).
Private security officers will increasingly come into contact with the general
public in public or quasi-public places. The emergence of the private security
industry in residential communities is one such recent development (Bottoms
and Wiles 1995; Noaks 1997; Stober 1997; Golsby 1998). There will be
reluctance on the part of the police to formally acknowledge this role.
However, it is expected that the police monopoly on law and order in residential
communities will partly be taken over by private competitors.
The trend within the business world is to go back to the core business.
This is the main reason why, for example in the Netherlands, almost 80%
of security work is contracted out. It is expected that this trend will continue
over the next few years.
Private security and public law enforcement will explore ways to meet
the needs of both sectors with regard to crimes like occupational fraud and
abuse (Bradford and Simonsen 1998). Governments will realise that
security is not a commodity purely to be bought and sold, and therefore it
needs good governance. Governments will increasingly regulate the
development and operations of the private security industry. As a
consequence stringent procedures for quality control, including the
handling of complaints, will be incorporated in the private security
company’s culture.
In countries where governments persist in policies of self-regulation,
while not recognising the urgent need for public accountability, the industry
will continue to have a bad image.
The international quality standard for services (ISO 9000) will become
the benchmark for quality assurance within the private security industry.
Growth in the exchange of information that has become instantaneously
and globally available presents many opportunities in certain parts of the
industry. There is little doubt that the world has indeed entered something
172 JAAP DE WAARD
of a new era in which global access to information has become reality. The
bigger security companies will recognise a market niche: forensic
accounting. Given the international character of financial crime, develop-
ments in this sphere are important to the different regions and nations of
the world. In this connection, mutual transfer of expertise between public
and private police will become important.
In many cases, such international firms might conform to regulation just
as much as national firms, in other cases they might not. It is difficult, if not
impossible, for governments to draw lines here: often there is no more than
a voluntary ‘standard’ of good international behaviour. Given the world-wide
opportunities for sharing knowledge and the dissemination of information,
international frameworks for regulation will be high on the political agenda.
Virtual reality systems will replace most ‘stealable’ products in shops,
hence reducing the cost of security and preventing crime. On a large scale,
affordable smart security and safety systems will be introduced, including
fire and personal alarm systems. Also, affordable smart ‘visitor’ cum
intruder recognition systems will be available, based on neural networks
and other forms of ‘thinking’ recognition systems.
In Central and Eastern European countries, security and law enforcement
will increasingly become a private or commercial matter rather than a
governmental responsibility.
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