Population Projection - BBS

Population projection of bangladesh dynamics and trends 2011-2061
POPULATION PROJECTION OF BANGLADESH

Dynamics and Trends
Population Projection Master File - Front Side - Date : 10.12.2015

Population Projection Master File - Back Side - Date : 10.12.2015
COMPLIMENTARY
POPULATION PROJECTION OF BANGLADESH:

DYNAMICS AND TRENDS
2011-2061
November 2015
BANGLADESH BUREAU OF STATISTICS (BBS)

STATISTICS AND INFORMATICS DIVISION (SID)
MINISTRY OF PLANNING
GOVERNMENT OF THE PEOPLE’S REPUBLIC OF BANGLADESH
ISBN- 978-984-33-9960-1
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Published by:
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)
Statistics and Informatics Division (SID)
Ministry of Planning
Website: www.bbs.gov.bd
Disclaimer:
This report has been prepared by Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) in collaboration with Institute
of Statistics Research and Training (ISRT), University of Dhaka.
This book or any portion thereof cannot be copied, microfilmed or reproduced for any commercial purpose. Data
therein can, however, be used and published with acknowledgement of their sources.
Population Projection of Bangladesh / ii

Contents
Message of Honorable Minister, Ministry of Planning vii

Message of Honorable State Minister, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Planning ix
Foreword xi
Preface xiii
Message of Representative, United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) xv
Acknowledgements xvii
Executive Summary xix
1. INTRODUCTION 1
1. Introduction 1
1.1 Population Projections of Bangladesh: A Short Review 2
1.2 Population Policy of Bangladesh 4
1.3 Objectives 4
2. METHODOLOGY 6
2.1 Inputs and Outputs of the Cohort Component Method 7
2.2 Steps of the Cohort Component Method 7
2.3 Limitations of this Projection 9
3. ASSUMPTIONS IN RECENT POPULATIONS 11

3.1 Projection by UNFPA 11
3.2 Projection by El-Saharty et al. (2014) 12
3.3 Projection by Islam (2000) 13
3.4 Projection by UN 13
3.5 Other Projections 15
4. POPULATION PROJECTION FOR THE PERIOD 2016-2061 16

4.1 Assumptions for Population Projection 16
4.2 Population Projection without International Migration 20
4.2.1 Projected Population by Age Group 20
4.2.2 Projected Population by Sex 21
4.2.3 Population Projection in Different Scenarios 22
4.2.4 Projected Rural-Urban Population 24
4.2.5 District-wise Projected Population 25
4.2.6 Projected Labor Force and Dependency Ratio 28
4.2.7 Projected Women in Reproductive Age 29
4.2.8 Projection of Primary School Enrollment 29
4.2.9 Projected Youth Population 30
Children and
Population Bangladesh / iii
Youth inofBangladesh
Projection
4.3. Population Projection with International Migration 31
4.4. Population Projection with International Migration 33
5. CONCLUSION 35
APPENDIXES
Appendix-1 Assumptions for urban-rural population projection 37
Appendix -2 Assumptions for district-wise population projection 38
Appendix -3 Age-specific Male-Female Distribution Pyramids 39
Appendix -4 Baseline and projected population by three scenarios, 5-year age-group and sex, 42
Bangladesh
Appendix -5 Baseline and projected population for medium variant, single age and sex, 48
Bangladesh
Appendix -6 Baseline and projected population for medium variant, single year-single age, 59
females, Bangladesh
Appendix -7 Baseline and projected population for medium variant, single year-single age, 63
males, Bangladesh
Appendix -8 Baseline and projected total population for medium variant, single year-single 67
age, Bangladesh
Appendix -9 TFR series of SAARC countries 71
Appendix -10 References 72
List of Tables
Table 3.1: Assumptions on TFR and life expectancy at birth and UNFPA Population Projection 11
(2014)
Table 3.2: Assumptions regarding TFR and population projection in El-Saharty et al. (2014) 12
Table 3.3: TFR and projected population in Islam (2000) 13
Table 4.1: Assumed TFR and life expectancy 18
Table 4.2: Proportionate Fertility Rate (PFR) for all Scenarios 18

Table 4.3: Baseline and projected total population for different assumption on TFR and life
expectancy, Bangladesh (in thousands) 20
Table 4.4: Baseline and projected population by three scenarios for selected age-groups,
Bangladesh (in thousands) 21
Table 4.5: Baseline and projected population by three scenarios and sex, Bangladesh (in
thousands) 22
Table 4.6: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group, Bangladesh (in
thousands): Scenario I 22
thousands): Scenario II 23
thousands): Scenario III 23
Table 4.9: Baseline and projected total population by three scenarios and residences,
Bangladesh (in thousands) 24
Children and
Population Youth in
Projection Bangladesh / iv
ofBangladesh
Table 4.10a: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Barisal division
(in thousands): Scenario II 25
Table 4.10b: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Chittagong
division (in thousands): Scenario II 26
Table 4.10c: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Khulna division
Table 4.10d: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Dhaka division
Table 4.10e: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Rajshahi
Table 4.10f: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Sylhet division
Table 4.10g: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Rangpur
Table 4.11: Baseline and projected labor force (in percentage of total population) and
dependency ratio by three scenarios, Bangladesh 28
Table 4.12: Projected Female Population Aged 15-49 Years (mothers accounted for TFR) in
Three Scenarios (in thousands) 29
Table 4.13: Projected school enrollment (6-11 years old in thousands) in three scenarios 30
Table 4.14: Estimated net migration rate and number of net migrants by age-group by sex (per
100,000) 32
Table 4.15: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group including international
migration, Bangladesh (in thousands), Scenario II 33
Table 4.16: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group, Bangladesh 2050-51
(in millions) 33
List of Figures
Figure 1: Comparative survival ratio of UN South Asia and UN general life tables 19
Figure 2: Projected female population aged 15-49 years (mothers accounted for TFR) in three 29
scenarios (in 100,000)
Figure 3: Projected primary school enrollment (6-11 years old in millions) in three scenarios 30
Figure 4: Projected youth population (15-29 years of age) in three scenarios (in 100,000) 31
Children and
Population Youth in
Projection Bangladesh / v
of Bangladesh
Children and
Population Youth in
Projection Bangladesh / vi
ofBangladesh
Minister
Government of the People's Republic of
Bangladesh
Message
I am delighted to know that Population and Housing Census 2011 Project of Bangladesh Bureau of
Statistics (BBS), Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) has prepared fourteen Population
Monographs using the census data of different years. This is the first time BBS is publishing
population monographs with in-depth analysis of the population census data. The present report on
‘Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends' is a special monograph in addition to
fourteen population monographs.
Each monograph deals in a particular issue related to population and housing where census data
have been used in multidimensional approaches. In addition, cross country comparison and in country
comparison have also been made to oversee the representativeness of data with other national
sources. It is expected that the monographs will useful in national planning and policy making
particularly in the field of population and development.
I would like to thank concerned officials of SID and BBS and also authors of the monographs for their
relentless effort in preparing these monographs and publication thereof. Special thanks to European
Union (EU) and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for their generous support in conducting 5th
decennial census of Bangladesh and preparing the population monographs.
Dhaka AHM Mustafa Kamal, FCA, MP

November, 2015
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State Minister
Ministry of Finance
and
Government of the People's Republic of
Bangladesh
Message
I have come to learn that Population and Housing Census 2011 Project of Bangladesh Bureau of
Statistics, Statistics and Informatics Division has prepared fourteen Population Monographs and one
special monograph on ‘Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends’ using census
data of different years. Population is the main ingredient for national planning and policy making.
Therefore, Population Monographs are of vital importance in the field of population planning of the
country.
Each monograph has been prepared with a particular issue related to population and housing. To
prepare these Monographs census data have been used widely in multidimensional way where
secondary data from other sources have also been used. The monographs are a new dimension in
the wide use of data generated through national censuses of the country.
My sincere thanks and gratitude to the honorable Minister, Ministry of Planning for his dynamic
leadership and active guidance in implementing all our activities including census undertaking. I would
like to thank Secretary, Statistics and Informatics Division, Director General, BBS for their relentless
effort in preparing these monographs and publication thereof. Special thanks to European Union (EU)
and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for their generous support in conducting 5th decennial
census of Bangladesh and preparing the population monographs.
Dhaka M.A. Mannan, MP

November, 2015
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Secretary
Government of the People’s Republic of
Bangladesh
Foreword
Population Census is the single most important statistical undertaking in any country. Bangladesh
Bureau of Statistics of the Statistics and Informatics Division has conducted the 5th decennial census
of the country during 15-19 March, 2011. In order to supplement the main census a large scale
sample survey was conducted in October 2011 which covered detailed information on Population &
Housing. The report on ‘Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends’ is special
Monograph in addition Monograph is mainly based on the findings of main census and sample census
conducted during 2011. Data from other secondary sources have also been used to prepare the
Monograph.
It may be mentioned that Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) has been publishing a number of
Population Monograph series and Population Monograph on ‘Population Projection of Bangladesh:
Dynamics and Trends' is a special monograph in addition to fourteen monographs being published by
BBS using Population Census Data. Monographs are the in depth analysis of a particular topic of
interest. Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends has highlighted the future
population of Bangladesh under different assumptions.
‘Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends’ will be useful for proper planning of the
country considering the future trends of population. This monograph has forecasted future population
of the country by age-sex and residence under different assumptions.
I like to express my sincere thanks to Director General, Deputy Director General of BBS, Project
Director of Population and Housings Census 2011 Project and his team for preparing this Monograph.
I acknowledge with gratitude the support of European Union (EU) and United Nations Population Fund
(UNFPA) for successful completion of the Population and Housing Census 2011 and preparing the
Monograph.
Dhaka Kaniz Fatema ndc

November, 2015
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Director General
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS)
Government of the People’s Republic of
Bangladesh
Preface
The fifth population and housing census of Bangladesh was conducted during 15th March to 19th
March, 2011. The main objective of the census was to collect information on the basic characteristics
related to housing, households and population for developing a comprehensive database for
development planning and human resource development programmes as well as economic
management.
Population and Housing Census 2011 were conducted in three phases. In the First Phase, basic data
about all households and individual members of the households were collected through ICR formatted
questionnaire during 15th March to 19th March, 2011. In the Second Phase, quality and coverage of
the main count were verified through a Post Enumeration Check (PEC) survey during 10th April to 14th
April, 2011. For the first time in the census history of Bangladesh, PEC was conducted by an
independent organization, namely Bangladesh Institute of Development Studies (BIDS). In the Third
Phase, detailed socio-economic information was collected by administering a long machine readable
questionnaire in a sample survey held during 15th October to 25th October, 2011.
One of the objectives of the Population and Housing Census 2011 Project was in-depth analysis of
census data and preparation of Population Monograph series. Monographs are useful to the users to
know the detailed information about the related area for taking appropriate policy measures and
further research.
The Monograph on ‘Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends’ is a special

monograph in addition to 14 monograph series which covered the future population of Bangladesh by
age-sex and residence under different assumption.
I express my heartfelt gratitude to the Honorable Minister for Planning for his effective guidance and
significant cooperation in making the census a success. I express my deepest gratitude to Secretary,
Statistics and Informatics Division (SID) for her whole-hearted support and cooperation to the census.
Moreover, members of ‘Steering Committee’, ‘Standing Technical Committee’, Consultants and the
participants of the Seminar-cum-Expert Consultation deserve special thanks for their valuable
contributions for finalizing the questionnaire and the census programme. I am thankful to the
researchers of Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT) for preparing this special
monograph. Thanks to European Union (EU) and United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for their
technical and financial support to the Population and Housing Census 2011 Project.
Finally, I like to thank Deputy Director General, BBS, Project Director, Population and Housing Census
2011 Project, members of the Technical Committee and other officers & staff members of BBS for
bringing out this monograph.
Dhaka Mohammad Abdul Wazed

November, 2015
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Message
This report entitled ‘Population Projection: Dynamics and Trends’ is a special monograph in addition
to 14 monograph series developed by the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) with support from
the United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA). UNFPA has supported the BBS since the very first
census in 1974, a cooperation that has grown stronger with each census. Through the “Support to
2011 Bangladesh Population and Housing Census” project UNFPA has been working closely with the
BBS to ensure that best use is made out of the resources invested in the census. The project has put
a major emphasis on in-depth analysis of census data and the production of thematic reports in the
form of these monographs. This series will provide its readers a better and clearer understanding of
the trends, the current country scenarios and the gaps indicating where targeted interventions are
necessary.
The availability of quality, reliable and timely data, as well as a thorough, methodologically sound and
user-friendly analysis of data is more important than ever before. The information generated by
population and housing census, the numbers of people, their distribution, their living conditions, are all
critical for development. Without accurate data, policymakers do not know where to invest in schools,
hospitals or roads and the most in need remain invisible. The implementation and monitoring of the
Sustainable Development Goals, the guiding framework for the development agenda 2030, will
require the production and analysis of a large amount of data, big data, requiring strong and
independent National Statistics Offices, which UNFPA will continue to support.
I would like to take this opportunity to congratulate and thank the Statistics and Informatics Division
and the Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics’ authority and the project team for their efforts to produce this
series, as well as the experts who contributed to the development of the monographs. My special
gratitude goes to the Delegation of European Union in Bangladesh for their generous support and co-
operation in implementing the “Support to Bangladesh Population and Housing Census 2011” project
and in the preparation of these monographs.
Dhaka Argentina Matavel Piccin

November, 2015 Representative
UNFPA Bangladesh
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Project Director
Population and Housing Census 2011 Project
Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics
Statistics and Informatics Division
Acknowledgements
It is my great pleasure to acknowledge the contributors who were engaged in preparing the special
Monograph on ‘Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends’ under Population and
Housing Census 2011 Project of Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS). This initiative of BBS is a new
dimension with regard to the wide use of census data in the country and the abroad.
This special monograph has been prepared by the BBS in collaboration with Institute of Statistical
Research and Training (ISRT), Dhaka University. A series of review meetings were organized to
finalize the draft monograph.
I would like to express my profound regards and deep sense of gratitude to the Secretary, Statistics
and Informatics Division and Director General, Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics for their valuable
suggestions, continuous guidance and all out support in smooth completion of all the activities of this
project and bringing out this special monograph.
It is worth mentioning that European Union (EU) has provided generous support in the implementation
of the Population and Housing Census 2011 Project. I take this opportunity to express my
indebtedness to United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA) for the partnership of this project of BBS.
I am extremely grateful to the Institute of Statistical Research and Training (ISRT) and the authors who
were engaged in preparing this special monograph. My sincere thanks to Mr. Md. Shamsul Alam,
local consultant of this project and Dr. Sadananda Mitra, ex-consultant, UNDP for their whole hearted
co-operation in the preparation of this special monograph.
Thanks are also due to Mr. Iori Kato, Deputy Representative, Dr. Shantana R. Halder, Chief PPR and
Mr. Mahboob-E-Alam, NPO, UNFPA for their kind support and help. I am grateful to Mr. Md. Mostafa
Ashrafuzzaman, Deputy Director, Mr. Md. Khorshed Alam, Assistant Statistical Officer, Mr.
Mohammad Abdullah, Assistant Statistical Officer and all other officials of Population and Housing
Census 2011 project of BBS who worked hard to conduct the census and to prepare this special
monograph.
Dhaka Md. Mashud Alam

November, 2015
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Executive Summary
This study aims to analyze the population trends and impact to provide options for policy
makers in Bangladesh. In the last few years Bangladesh is possessing remarkable GDP
growth including increased life expectancy and levels of literacy, and an improvement over
the maternal and child mortality rates, immunization or vaccination program and even a
drastic reduction of poverty rate. Population dynamics is now one of the important factors of
this country’s development, planning and success, and projection is one important tool.
The population of Bangladesh has been increased rapidly since its independence. This large
increase in Bangladesh’s population, notably from the late 20th century, is mainly due to the
improvement of literacy rate, reduction of gender disparity, declination of maternal and child
mortality rates, better medical technology and immense public health campaigns. This study
adopts three realistic scenarios (Scenarios I, II and III) comparing with the trends of various
countries, and their socio-economic and demographic components based on the adjusted 2011
census population and age-sex distribution. Scenarios I, II and III could be labeled as high,
medium and low variant accordingly. Here the keen interest is on the policy makers’ choices
in attaining and implanting different sets of intervention. It is to be recommended that the
scenario II is more feasible, whereas scenario III could be preferred for policy
implication. In every three different scenarios (I, II and III) has an increased population. In
2061, the population of Bangladesh is estimated to be 251.45 million under high variant
fertility assumption (scenario I), 223.39 million under medium variant fertility assumption
(scenario II) and 209.42 million under low variant fertility assumption (scenario III). In high
variant (scenario I) about 68 percent of population is shown to be increased, ranges from 149
to 251 million. The total population will remain in the range of 209 to 224 millions in 2061 in
scenarios II and III. The age structure of projected population shows a curvature pattern for
all age groups, there are ups and downs in total numbers and proportion changes. A sharp
increase of urbanization has been depicted in all three scenarios. The age-specific projected
values show that at the age of 30-34 and onwards, population increases sharply. This
indicates movement of the population towards the older age groups. An interesting output of
this study is the population projection considering international migration, according to
scenario II the total population is going to be 219.70 million. For a country like Bangladesh
the net migration rates at middle ages are always negative, more people leave the country for
work and education than the number that comes in. This fact is also reflected in the estimated
net migration rates.
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1. INTRODUCTION
1. Introduction
In this age of globalization, Bangladesh has achieved significant progress in many areas of
human development and economic growth. Since last few years Bangladesh is possessing
over 6 percent GDP growth including increased life expectancy and levels of literacy, and an
improvement over the maternal and child mortality rates, immunization or vaccination
program and even drastic reduction of poverty rate at 24.8% (MDG 2015). This country has
been improved its Gross National Income per capita (GNI) and positioned as one of the
lower-middle income countries (World Bank 2015). About 30 percent of the total population
in Bangladesh is comprised within the youth ages between 10 years to 24 years (UNFPA
2014b). Population dynamics is now one of the striving factors of this country to peep on and
projection is one important tool.
The history of population projection is old. The earliest systematic global population
projection dates to Notestein (1945). Since the 1950s, the United Nations has taken a
leadership role in the population projections and dissemination of their results. Nowadays
most national governments make population projections for their own countries. Campbell
(1996) projected U.S. population from 1995 to 2025 by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin.
Colby and Ortman (2014) projected U.S. population from 2014 to 2060. In addition, a few
international organizations prepare population projections for the world, regions, and
individual countries. The United Nations (UN) and the U.S. Census Bureau issue revised
global and national projections on a regular basis. The UN (2014) published projected
population from 2010 to 2100 for a total of 233 countries and areas. The UN projections are
the most widely used worldwide. Many national governments, international agencies, the
media, researchers, and academic institutions rely on UN projections. The World Bank and
the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) also prepare population
projections for the world, major regions, and (especially the World Bank) for individual
countries. World Bank projections generally are used for planning and for managing projects,
while IIASA projections have been used primarily to assess various projection assumptions
and methods. Each of these international organizations uses slightly different projection
methodologies, makes varying assumptions about future demographic trends, and begins with
slightly different estimates of population size.
Population projections can be used for a number of purposes. They provide a tool for
analysing the components of growth and the sensitivity of underlying assumptions.
Projections can raise our understanding of the determinants of population change. Projections
also can be used to provide information on possible future scenarios. The most important use
of population projections is in the role they can play as a rational basis for decision making.
Changes in population size and composition have many social, economic, environmental, and
political implications; for this reason, population projections often serve as a basis for
Population Projection of Bangladesh / 1

producing other projections (e.g., households, families, school enrolment, income, and labour
force etc.). Population projections help decision makers in both the public and private sectors
make informed choices.
National population projections, for example, can be used to plan for future Social Security
and Medicare obligations (Lee and Tuljapurkar, 1997; Miller, 2001). State projections can be
used to determine future water demands (Texas Water Development Board, 1997) and need
for welfare expenditures (Opitz and Nelson, 1996). Local projections can be used to
determine the need for new public schools (Swanson et al., 1998) and to select sites for fire
stations (Tayman et al. 1994). Business enterprises use forecasts to predict demands for their
products (Thomas, 1994) and to anticipate the health care costs of current and retired
employees (Kintner and Swanson, 1994). Population projections can be used to forecast the
demand for housing (Mason, 1996), the number of people with disabilities (Michaud et al.
1996), and the number of sentenced criminals (Oregon Office of Economic Analysis, 2000).
Population projections take advantage of the two strong points of demography: (i) the
accurate recording of demographic processes over a period of years and (ii) the momentum
that links demographic processes for one time period with those for another. Because the
future is intimately tied to the past, projections based on past trends and relationships raise
our understanding of the dynamics of population growth, and often serve as forecasts of
population change that are sufficiently accurate to support good decision making. The diverse
and increasingly influential roles played by population projections make them an important
part of modern demographic analysis.
1.1 Population Projections of Bangladesh: A Short Review
A small number of studies have been attempted population projection for Bangladesh over
the past decades. Recently UNFPA (2014a) conducted population projection of Bangladesh
using the 2011 census population as the base for the period from 2016 to 2061. Three
alternative assumptions about trends in fertility are considered in UNFPA (2014a) projection:
TFR unchanged at 2.3 over the entire projection period, TFR declining to 1.9 by 2016-21 and
remaining at that level thereafter, and TFR declining to 1.6 by 2016-21 and remaining at that
level thereafter. In this study gradual increase in expectation of life is assumed for both male
and female, and net international migration is assumed to be zero. The lowest figure for the
2061 population is 201 million in the low projection and about 265 million in the high
projection have been figured out. UNFPA (2014a) projection was based on the cohort-
component method which was carried out by the user friendly DemProj (Stover and
Kirmeyer 2005) computer program. Another study on Bangladesh population projection was
conducted by Uddin (2014) that also considered the recent population census 2011 by as the
base population to estimate the target population for the forecasting period. The BDHS and
SVRS data sources were used to retrieve the necessary inputs. Author assumed an under
enumeration of 15-19 years age groups in 2011 population census and a comparative
simulation was formulated with age structure of the contemporary BDHS (2011) and census

population (2011). The UN model life table was used in the projection and assume
international migration to be zero. Sprague’s multipliers were used to convert the population
into single years. Cohort-component method was used to determine the projected population
and found to be about 172 million for the year 2021.
El-Saharty et al. (2014) estimated the population of Bangladesh is to be 218.1 million under a
Laissez-Faire fertility assumption (LF scenario) and 201.3 million under an accelerated
fertility transition (AFT) scenario in 2051. The authors considered two scenarios. LF scenario
assumes that TFR drops to 2.0 by 2016 and remains there until 2051. On the other hand, AFT
assumes that TFR reduces to 1.7 by 2016 and remains there until 2051. Mahsin and Hossain
(2012) used Bayesian approach for population projection, and also investigated the usefulness
of cohort component method in making the population projection for Bangladesh. Firstly,
they made fertility forecasting based on Bayesian fertility model. Under this approach they
followed the time-series tradition in developing a method to forecast TFR and then convert it
to the age-specific fertility rates on the basis of base-year age-specific fertility rates.
Secondly, they made forecasting for the life expectancies and then for age specific survival
probabilities. Finally, they followed the cohort method to forecast the population. Haque et
al. (2012) made a population projection based on logistic population model and non-linear
model that incorporated the growth rate as a function of time. Firstly, they tested the
numerical method for Bangladesh population data (1991-2006) and then they found a fitted
population projection. Finally, they implemented the logistic model that gave future
population projection for Bangladesh during 1996 to 2035. BBS (2006) prepared a population
projection based on the 2001 Population Census. According to their study the projected
population would be 218 million in 2050 if replacement level fertility (NRR=1) could be
attained in 2011. Islam (2000) envisaged the population momentum in Bangladesh for the
period 1991-2051. Assuming the CPR would increase to 63 percent in the year 2006 and
remain so till 2051, the medium variant projected population was 188.1 million in the year
2051. Using data from UN World Population Prospects (1990), Biswas and Paul (1996)
projected Bangladesh’s population, with the assumptions of TFR to be 2.7 children per
woman by 2020 from 5.1 in 1990. The medium variant projected population figured as 212
million in the year 2020 from the base population of 115.6 million in 1990. Kabir and
Chowdhury (1982) investigated the relationship between population growth and food
production in Bangladesh. Recognizing the difficulties of feeding the growing population
even with considerable increase in food production, they suggested giving priority to
population policy for reduction in population. Rabbani and Hossain (1981) projected the
population of Bangladesh for the period 1975-2025 using the cohort-component method with
the assumption of no migration. The medium variant (NRR=1 during the period 1995-2000)
projected population in 2025 would be 178 million. Obaidullah (1976) presented a model
termed as ‘Expo-linear Model’ which is claimed better than either an exponential or a linear
model in describing population growth over time. But he agreed that there was a difficulty in
his model in interpreting its parameter unlike those of exponential or linear one. Revelle et al.
(1973) have made the population projection of Bangladesh for the period 1972 to 2003, based

on demographic data available for the 1960s and assumed that fertility rate would drop to a
NRR of 1 by the year 2003. Their medium variant projection in the year 2003 was 170
million people.
1.2 Population Policy of Bangladesh

Population projection and its policy implication have been driven as the foremost national
issues in Bangladesh. The population growth was identified as one of the major national
problems in the first Five Year Plan (1973 – 1978). A population policy was developed and
approved formally in 2004. The main objective of Bangladesh Population Policy 2004 was to
achieve Net Reproductive Rate (NRR) = 1 by 2010 in order to have a stable population by
2060. But it has not been possible to achieve NRR = 1 by 2010 as targeted originally, so it
has become a striving need to update the population policy to accelerate the related activities.
In 2012, an updated version of population policy was proposed. One of the major objectives
of the Bangladesh population policy 2012 (BPP) was to lower the TFR to 2.1 by increasing
the rate of prevalence of the contraceptive users to 72%, and achieve NRR = 1 by the year
2015. Other important aspects of BPP 2012 was to ensure the availability of family planning
methods to the eligible couples by providing easy access to reproduction health services, to
reduce infant and maternal mortality, to ensure gender and women’s empowerment.
1.3 Objectives
Development of any country may depend on the size of its population. As Bangladesh has a
large population, to plan about any future development, consequently we need to know the
size of the population on that time, i.e. projected population. The population of a geographic
area grows or declines through the interaction of three main factors: fertility, mortality, and
migration. To project population size at a future date, demographers make assumptions about
levels of fertility and mortality, and about how many people will move (migration) in or out
of an area before that date. The net population increase or decrease over the period is added
to the ‘baseline’ (beginning) population to project future population. The population
projection is the best guess calculation of the number of people expected to be alive at a
future date, based on assumptions about the base population size, births, deaths and
migration. The population projections are always set on a conditional future because we can
never be certain about the assumptions considered in the projection. Accurate baseline data
on population size and age structure, as well as on predicted fertility, mortality, and net
migration rates, are critical to produce accurate population projections (Keilman, 1998). Few
specific objectives below are reaped in accordance with the BPP (Bangladesh Population
Policy) 2012.

Specific objectives of the project on population projection are:
 To make projection of the future size of the population at national and district level.
 To make population projection of urban rural (residential level) composition to insight
into future needs of different local government facilities.
 To make further projection considering the age and sex composition of population of
Bangladesh.
 To explain broadly how population projections can be useful decision-making tools.

2. METHODOLOGY
A projection may be conceptualized as the numerical outcome of a particular set of

assumptions regarding the future population. Projection does not attempt to predict whether
those assumptions actually will hold true in future. Only a silly mathematical error can
mislead its calculation. A given projection can be judged by the merits of its assumptions. It
can never be proven right or wrong by future events. In broad, there are two ways for
population projection: subjective and objective. Subjective approach is judgmental and
incurred with bias. According to Smith et al. (2001), objective methods are classified into
three broad categories: (1) trend extrapolation, (2) cohort-component method, and (3)
structural model. Trend extrapolation methods are based on the calculation and assumptions
of observable historical trends. For methods of this type, future values of a variable are found
solely by its historical values. The cohort-component method segments the population into
age-sex groups or birth cohorts and accounts for the fertility, mortality, and migration
behavior of each cohort. A mixture of techniques can be used to project each of the three
components of population growth. Structural models are based on observed relationships
between demographic and other variables (e.g., land uses, employment etc.). The population
changes based on projected changes in those other variables. The functioning of structural
models are typically developed using regression analysis and variants thereof. In application,
methods in these three categories are not always mutually exclusive. For example,
applications of the cohort-component method may incorporate trend extrapolations of one
type or another and structural models are often used in conjunction with the cohort-
component method (Siegel and Swanson 2004). The cohort-component method is widely
used and relatively easy to explain. It uses the available data and theoretical knowledge on
the dynamics of population growth, and it takes into account causal factors, as its basic
components and compositional factors. It can produce consistent and comparable national
and sub-national projections that are easy to update involving the in-depth analysis and
development of assumptions for each of the components of change. Due to its advantages this
study applies the cohort component method.
The cohort component summary equation is defined for the population at time (t+n) as
Pt+n=S[t,t+n]+B[t,t+n]+NM[t,t+n], (2.1)
where S[t,t+n] is the survived population at time t+n, B[t,t+n] is the number of births
observed in the period [t,t+n] and NM[t,t+n] is the net migration observed in the period
[t,t+n].
To project the total population size, and the number of males and females by 5-year age
groups, this study found the number of people who survive or are expected to be alive in the
future. Then the survived population number, the number of births that took place and the
number of net migrants are added.

2.1 Inputs and Outputs of the Cohort Component Method
To apply cohort component method we need base year population by age and sex, proportion
of population by age and sex in urban, rural and other areas in which we want to project the
population; assumptions on mortality: survival ratios by age and sex; or expectations of life at
birth by sex; assumptions on fertility: fertility rates by age; or total fertility rates and
proportionate fertility rates by age, sex ratio at birth; assumptions on international migration
(if population is open to international migration): net international migration rates by age and
sex.
We expect to get a number of outputs from a population projection using cohort component
method: age and sex structure of the population; population aggregates: population size,
population in selected broad age groups, mid-interval population size, number of person-
years lived, population growth, births, deaths, net change due to migration, indicators of the
population structure: proportions by broad age groups, dependency ratios, median age of the
population, proportion of women in childbearing ages, sex ratio of the population; indicators
of the population distribution (national; if urban and rural populations are being projected):
proportion urban, proportion rural; rates of population change: crude birth rate, crude death
rate, rate of natural increase, crude net migration rates, rate of population growth.
2.2 Steps of the Cohort Component Method
The cohort component method consists of a number of steps, which are described below.
Step 1: Collecting Information
The cohort component method requires information from both the most recent and the prior
census of the locale. Information on the number of births during the past 10 years is also
required. Ideally information on births is compiled by the age of the mother, so that age-
specific fertility rates can be calculated. These rates are used to project the number of births
that occur during the projection period. This study uses the total fertility rates and
proportionate distribution of births among women at different childbearing age groups to find
the age-specific fertility rates. A life table or calculated survival rates are also needed to
calculate the mortality rates in the projected years.
Step 2: Aging a Population into the Future
The cohort component method takes each age group of the population and updates it over the
time using the assumed survival rates (Siegel and Swanson 2004). More specifically, for a
specific age group the population at time (t+n) is obtained by multiplying the population at
time t with n-year survival rates.
Step 3: Adding Births
Next the number of births taking place during the projection interval is calculated. Age-
specific fertility rates are multiplied by the number of women in their reproductive age
groups to obtain the annual number of expected births for each age group per year. They are

then multiplied by the projection period n to obtain the total number of births that take
placeover the time [t, t+n] Pre-specified sex ratio is used to obtain the number of male and
female births from the total births. At the end, age-specific survival rates are used to obtain
the number of survived male and female births.
Method for Calculating Number of Births at a TFR
Fertility assumptions can be specified by either age-specific fertility rates or a summary
fertility measures (e.g. total fertility rate along with proportionate age-specific fertility rates).
In this report, TFR and proportionate age specific fertility rates have been used for
calculating age specific fertility rates. The age-specific fertility rate for the age group a is
expressed as
ASFR(a)= (TFR/n)× PFR(a), a=15‐19,…, 45‐49, (2.2)
where PFR(a) is the proportionate fertility rate of age group a, n is the projection interval.
The number of births observed during the interval of length n can be calculated using age
specific fertility rates and the mid-year female population of the childbearing span a as
Bn =n ×a=15‐1945‐49ASFR(a) ×MWPOP(a),
where MWPOP(a) is the mid-year female population for age group a. The total numbers of
male and female births are obtained by multiplying Bn by the corresponding sex ratio at birth.
Calculating Mortality Rates using Life Tables
Usually survival rates are derived from model life tables based upon levels of expectation of
life. At first the current survival rates obtained from the life table of a country are compared
to the survival rates of different model life tables for the same level of life expectancy. Then
the life table that shows the best match is used to derive survival rates for different projection
years.
Let x denote the age, 5Lx denote life table number of persons between ages (x, x+5) at time t,
5Lx5Lx‐5 survival ratio from age group (x-5, x) to age group (x, x+5). Life table number of
persons between ages (x, x+5) is given by the following formula:
Px, x+5t+5=Px‐5, xt×5Lx5Lx‐5.
The open interval of the age group requires special treatment. According to Keyfitz’s method,
the population in the open interval at time (t+5) is given by,
Pw+t+5=5Pw‐5t×5Lw5Lw‐5+Pw+t×T(w+5)Tw,
where w+ refers to the oldest age group. In stationary population this population is given by,
Pw+t+5=5Pw‐5t×Tw5Lw‐5,
since, 5Pw‐5Pw+=5Lw‐5Tw for stationary population.
Getting Population in Age Group 0-4 at Time t+5

Let 5Fxf is the female fertility rate for age group (x, x+5), α is the beginning age of
reproduction, β is the end of reproductive age. Then the population for the age group 0-4 at
the time t+5 can be obtained as
5P0t+5=5L02l0×x=α‐5β‐5(5Px+5Lx+55Lx×5Px+5)×5Fx.
Step 4: Adding Net Migrants
Migrations are movements across political boundaries that are semi-permanent or permanent
in nature. The calculation of the number of net migrants consists of two stages, first
estimating the net migration rate and then obtaining the migration adjusted population total. It
is recommended to use net migration rate from reliable sources, if possible, otherwise indirect
methods can be used to estimate net migration rate. Two methods of indirect estimation of the
number of net migrants will be reviewed in this section, where both the methods rely on
survival rates and census information.
Net migration rate (NMR) can be defined as the number of in-migrants minus the number of
out-migrants divided by the population exposed to the possibility (or risk) of migration, as
shown in equation (2.2).
NMR=I‐EP×100, (2.2)
where NMR is the net migration rate, I is the immigrants, E is the emigrants and P is the
population.
There are two methods for estimating net migration, which are direct and indirect methods.
Direct method uses either continuous registration system or census information; whereas the
indirect method can be implemented either by vital statistics or by survival ratio method.
There are two approaches to implement direct method that include continuous registration
system, where individuals report their change in residence immediately to a local government
office, and the use of census information (e.g. a census question like "Where were you living
5 years ago"? can give information on whether a person migrated or not). Indirect method can
be implemented based on the population counts in different age groups from the two most
recent consecutive censuses. Detail on these two methods of estimating net migration can be
found from Siegel and Swanson 2004.
2.3 Limitations of this Projection
The cohort component population projection method follows the process of demographic
change and is viewed as a more reliable projection method than those that primarily rely on
census data or information that reflects population change. It also provides the type of
information needed to plan for services to meet the future demands of different segments of
the population. However, like most projection tools, there are disadvantages to using the
cohort component method. First, it is highly dependent on reliable birth, death and migration
data. Thus, it may be difficult to collect the information to apply this tool. Second, it assumes
that survival and birth rates and estimates of net migration will remain the same throughout

the projection period. In addition it does not consider the non-demographic factors that
influence population growth or decline. Even though problems exist, this projection method
is the most widely used tool by planners since it provides information on the potential growth
or decline of a locale by age and sex.

3. ASSUMPTIONS IN RECENT PROJECTIONS
This section attempts to cover the assumptions that were implemented in different
projections.
3.1 Projection by UNFPA

The United Nations Population Fund (UNFPA 2014a) carried out a population projection for
Bangladesh for the period 2011-2061. Based on the assumptions regarding the future course
of fertility, three projection scenarios are considered, which are labeled as ‘high’, ‘medium’
and ‘low’ variants. The high scenario assumes that TFR would remain constant at 2.3 (current
level) for the entire projection period. The medium scenario assumes that TFR first drops to
2.1 (replacement level) in the 2011-2016 period, then to 1.9 (below replacement level) by
2016-21, and remains there until 2061. The low scenario is similar to the medium scenario
except that it drops to 2.0 (below replacement) instead of 2.1 in the period 2011-2016, and
1.6 instead of 1.9 in the period 2016-2021. The high scenario considered in this projection is
to see the possible consequences if fertility continues at its present level, the medium scenario
is the most likely to happen, and the low scenario is the wanted fertility rate as reported in the
Bangladesh Demographic and Health Survey (BDHS 2011).
Table 3.1: Assumptions on TFR and life expectancy at birth and UNFPA Population Projection (2014)
Year Assumption on TFR Assumption on Life Expectancy Total Population

(in millions)
High Medium Low Male Female Total High Medium Low
2011 2.3 2.1 2.0 69.1 71.4 70.3 149.8 149.8 149.8
2016 2.3 1.9 1.6 70.4 72.6 71.5 161.3 160.3 160.2
2021 2.3 1.9 1.6 71.6 73.9 72.7 173.6 170.2 168.7
2026 2.3 1.9 1.6 72.8 75.1 74.0 186.6 180.2 176.3
2031 2.3 1.9 1.6 74.1 76.2 75.2 199.6 190.0 183.8
2036 2.3 1.9 1.6 75.4 77.4 76.4 212.0 198.9 190.4
2041 2.3 1.9 1.6 76.6 78.7 77.6 223.5 206.5 195.6
2046 2.3 1.9 1.6 77.8 80.0 78.9 234.5 212.9 199.1
2051 2.3 1.9 1.6 77.8 80.0 78.9 245.6 218.4 201.3
2056 2.3 1.9 1.6 77.8 80.0 78.9 256.0 222.8 202.0
2061 2.3 1.9 1.6 77.8 80.0 78.9 265.2 225.7 201.1
In this projection, mortality assumptions are based on the expected future trends in life
expectancy, which is assumed to increase approximately 0.25 years per year over the
projection periods. The age-specific mortality is assumed to follow United Nations general
model life table. The net migration is assumed to be zero. The cohort-component method is
employed and the projection is carried out by using Demographic Projection, popularly

known as DemProj (Stover and Kirmeyer, 2005). The DemProj is a computer program for
making population projections for countries or regions. The program requires information on
the number of people by age and sex in the base year, as well as current year data and future
assumptions about the total fertility rate (TFR), the age distribution of fertility, life
expectancy at birth by sex, the most appropriate model life table, and the magnitude and
pattern of international migration. This information are used to project the size of the future
population by age and sex for as many as 150 years.
3.2 Projection by El-Saharty et al. (2014)

El-Saharty et al. (2014) conducted a population projection for Bangladesh for the period
2001-2051. The TFR estimates for the period 1971-2007 (obtained from different sources)
demonstrate that from the level of 6.2 children per woman, fertility in Bangladesh declined
rapidly (by 45 percent) during 1975-1991, and reached a plateau of around 3.3 children for
nearly a decade. After 2001, fertility started to fall again and reached at the level of 2.7
children per woman in 2006. Despite the plateau, the exponential trend fitted well to
Bangladesh's TFR. The fitted exponential model forecasts that Bangladesh will attain the
level of 2.0 children per woman by 2016, and will continue to go beyond to reach TFR=1.7
by 2021. On the basis of these forecasts, the authors consider two scenarios. The Laissez-
Faire (LF) scenario assumes that TFR drops to 2.0 by 2016 and remains there until 2051. The
Accelerated Fertility Transition (AFT) assumes that TFR reduces to 1.7 by 2016 and remains
there until 2051.These assumed scenarios are very close to the ‘medium’ and ‘low’ variants
of the UNFPA (2014) projection, respectively. These assumptions are summarized as in
Table 3.2 along with the projected population total. No high scenario is considered, as it is
very unlikely to happen it in the presence of continuous efforts of different government
agencies to reduce fertility.
Table 3.2: Assumptions regarding TFR and population projection in El-Saharty et al. (2014)
Year Assumption on TFR Total Population

(in millions)
LF AFT LF AFT
2011 2.3 2.3 153.9 154.3
2016 2.0 1.7 164.7 165.4
2021 2.0 1.7 174.8 174.3
2026 2.0 1.7 184.5 181.8
2031 2.0 1.7 193.5 188.7
2036 2.0 1.7 201.3 194.4
2041 2.0 1.7 208.0 198.4
2046 2.0 1.7 213.5 200.5
2051 2.0 1.7 218.4 201.3

In this projection UN South Asian model life table is considered. Since reliable estimates of
net migration rate are not available in Bangladesh, the rates are obtained from the United
Nations World Population Prospects: The 2010 Revision (medium variant). The DemProj
software was used for projecting the population.
3.3 Projection by Islam (2000)

Islam (2000) considered three scenarios to show the possible consequences that may arise
due to various policy measures by the government. The projection was made for the period
1991-2051 based on the 1991 population census and assumed one scenario as: High Fertility
Variant (HFV) with no change in mortality (scenario I). This variant assumes that the
contraceptive prevalence rate (CPR) will increase to 55 percent in the year 2000 and it will
remain constant thereafter. It is assumed that the proportion never married will not change
from that of the 1991 census and the infant mortality rate will remain the same. Medium
Fertility Variant (MFV) with no change in mortality (scenario II). This variant assumes that
the CPR will increase to 63 percent in the year 2006 and it will remain so till 2051. Low
Fertility Variant (LFV) with reduction in mortality (scenario III) assumed that the CPR will
increase to 63 percent in 2006. In addition, it is also assumed that the infant mortality rate
will be decreased by 50 percent during the 1991-2021 period. Since the success of family
planning programs will reduce the future level of fertility, the FamPlan model, which is based
on the proximate determinants options introduced by Bongaart, is used in the projection
(Stover et al., 1999).
Table 3.3: TFR and projected population in Islam (2000)

Year Assumption on TFR Total Population (in millions)
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
2011 2.86 2.32 2.32 159.4 148.1 148.6
2016 2.70 2.23 2.23 173.1 158.5 159.3
2021 2.37 1.93 1.93 185.2 167.9 169.1
2026 2.26 1.77 1.77 195.7 175.3 176.9
2031 2.48 1.66 1.66 205.9 180.4 182.3
2036 2.68 1.70 1.73 216.6 183.2 185.5
2041 2.70 1.97 2.00 227.2 185.5 188.4
2046 2.54 1.91 1.94 236.3 187.4 191.0
2051 2.44 1.81 1.83 243.9 188.1 192.3
3.4 Projection by UN
The Population Division of the Department of Economic and Social Affairs of the United
Nations Secretariat produces projections covering all countries of the world. These
projections are routinely published in the World Population Prospects series. The World
Population Prospects: The 2012 Revision is one such latest series and covers a 150 year time

horizon (UN, 2013). This can be subdivided into past estimates (1950-2010) and future
projections (2010-2100). The past estimates of demographic variables were taken either
directly from national statistical sources, or estimated by staff within the Population Division
on the basis of the best available national or international estimates at the time. The year
2010, separating the past estimates from the projections, is called the base year of the
projections. The projection period of this revision covers 90 years and ends in 2100.
The fertility assumptions that are made include high, medium, low, constant and instant-
replacement-fertility. A probabilistic method for projecting total fertility rate has been used in
the 2012 Revision. This new method was developed in collaboration with the Probabilistic
Projections Group of the Center for Statistics and the Social Sciences (CSSS) of the
University of Washington. The method is based on empirical fertility trends estimated for all
countries of the world for the period 1950 to 2010. The projected values are used in the
medium fertility assumption.
Under the high variant, fertility is projected to remain 0.5 children above the fertility in the
medium variant over most of the projection period. By 2020-2025, fertility in the high variant
is therefore half a child higher than that of the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a
total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman in the medium variant have a total fertility rate of
2.6 children per woman in the high variant. Under the low variant, fertility is projected to
remain 0.5 children below the fertility in the medium variant over most of the projection
period. By 2020-2025, fertility in the low variant is therefore half a child lower than that of
the medium variant. That is, countries reaching a total fertility rate of 2.1 children per woman
in the medium variant have a total fertility rate of 1.6 children per woman in the low variant.
As the name implies, under the constant-fertility variant, fertility in all countries remains
constant at the level estimated for 2005-2010. For each country, fertility is set to the level
necessary to ensure a net reproduction rate of 1 starting in 2010-2015. Fertility varies over the
remainder of the projection period in such a way that the net reproduction rate always
remains equal to one thus ensuring, over the long-run, the replacement of the population.
Assumptions regarding mortality are made in terms of life expectancy at birth by sex.
Mortality is assumed to be either normal or constant. Under the normality assumption, life
expectancy is generally assumed to rise over the projection period for most countries. The
2012 Revision of the World Population Prospects uses new probabilistic methods for
projecting life expectancy at birth. Under the constant mortality assumption, mortality over
the projection period is maintained constant for each country at the level estimated for 2005-
2010. The impact of HIV/AIDS on mortality is also considered as a variant. For the countries
which have experienced prevalence rates of five per cent or more, a different approach for the
estimation and projection of mortality was used.
The international migration is assumed as either normal or zero. Under the normal migration
assumption, the future path of international migration is set on the basis of past international
migration estimates and consideration of the policy stance of each country with regard to
future international migration flows. Projected levels of net migration are generally kept

constant over the next decades. Under zero migration assumption, for each country,
international migration is set to be zero starting in 2010-2015. The 2012 Revision includes
eight different projection variants. Five of those variants differ only with respect to the level
of fertility. All these make normal mortality and normal international migration assumptions.
In addition to the five fertility variants, a constant-mortality variant, a zero-migration variant
and a ‘no change’ variant (i.e., both fertility and mortality are kept constant) are considered.
The constant-mortality variant and the zero-migration variant both use the medium fertility
assumption. Furthermore, the constant-mortality and ‘no change’ variant both use the normal
international migration assumption.
3.5 Other Projections

The Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics (BBS) prepared a projection in 2006 based on the
population census in 2001. Four projection scenarios are considered. In one of the scenarios
fertility remains constant during the projection period 2001-2050. The other three scenarios
assume that net reproduction rate (NRR) will drop to 1 in 2011, 2016 and 2021, respectively.
The other notable sources in which projected values for Bangladesh are available include the
World Bank, the US Census Bureau, the Population Reference Bureau, and the International
Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA).

4. POPULATION PROJECTION FOR THE PERIOD 2016-2061
The world population follows nearly one percent growth rate for a long time with the ups and
downs of its various components. Since the late 18 century, the population seems to increase
th
with the sharp decline in mortality and rapid increase in the size of women population at
childbearing ages (Islam 2000). The population replacement level reaches when the number
of women at reproductive ages is replaced by the same number of daughters, assuming a
stationary population where birth and death rates remain constant, and moreover population
age composition remains unchanged over time. In real world, due to rapid growth of young
age composition, the population increases with a great pace.
Bangladesh has been going through a crucial demographic transition, keeping its third
generation after the liberation war in 1971. It is expected that during next decades it would
possibly attain the replacement level with its stagnant fertility rates around 2.3 and a sharp
decline in mortality rates. However, a short term population projection (5-10 years) of
Bangladesh may not be disrupted from any dramatic policy changes, and could be illustrated
from its past trend with the help of underlying assumptions. But a long term (about 50 years)
population projection can be deviated from a small shift of policies and socio-economic
factors. Again Bangladesh may face different patterns of age at marriage and childbearing
stage. Though age-specific fertility rate is still high in the age group of 20-24 (BDHS 2011,
2014) but it could turn into the older ages due to women empowerment and increasing
literacy rate (Islam 2000; Stover and Kirmeyer 2005;).
4.1 Assumptions for Population Projection
The most important assumption for any population projection is the assumption on the pattern
of future age-specific fertility. Age-specific fertility can be obtained from the summary
fertility measures like total fertility rate (TFR) and proportionate age-specific fertility
(proportion of births by females of different age groups). The projection is based on the
assumptions on both TFR and proportionate age-specific fertility for entire projection period.
The TFR and proportionate age-specific fertility values have been considered here after a
series of discussion and consultation meetings with the renowned demographers and policy
makers in Bangladesh, organized by BBS and UNFPA. Based on the assumed TFR values,
three scenarios, namely Scenario I, II, and III, are adopted in this study that are described
below.

Scenario I: The high variant assumes the TFR would remain constant at the present level 2.3
(BDHS 2011, 2014) over the projection period.
Scenario II: A steady decline of TFR employs in the medium variant fertility level. Initiating
from 2.3 in 2011, it assumes to be dropped to 2.1 in 2021, from 2026 TFR is assumed to be
1.9 and continued thereafter.
Scenario III: A sharp decline of TFR is assumed in the low variant scenario, beginning with
TFR 2.3 in 2011, 2.1 in 2021, 1.9 (below replacement level) in 2026 and after two decades
from 2011 it is assumed to be 1.6 and remains constant till 2061.
Scenarios I, II and III could be labeled as high, medium and low variant fertility, respectively
(see Table 4.1 for the assumed TFR values for different years). Here the keen interest is on
the policy makers’ choices in attaining and implanting different sets of intervention. It is to be
recommended that the scenario II is more feasible, whereas scenario III could be preferred for
policy implication. High variant (scenario I) assumes the highest fertility level, whereas the
low variant (scenario III) possesses the lowest fertility level. The population projections are
delineated for the period 2016 to 2061 based on the adjusted census population 2011. In this
report, projections are made with and without considering net migration.
We have assumed different proportionate fertility rate (PFR) by age groups for the
years 2011-31, 2031-51, and 2051-61 (Table 4.2). Table 4.2 shows that due to decreasing
TFR, the proportions of mothers in the younger age groups decline as time grows. But
due to the current heavy tailed distribution of younger mothers, the middle age groups
observe an increase in the proportions with time. Using the assumed TFR (Table 4.1) and
proportionate age-specific fertility, age-specific fertility rates are obtained (using Equation
2.2) for different years of projected period, which are shown in Table 4.2 for three different
scenarios. Note that the same proportionate age-specific fertility is assumed for all three
scenarios.
Life expectancy (for both males and females) is another important factor of population
projection, which helps to obtain survival probability of different age groups from the
selected life table. In recent years, life expectancy is getting high in Bangladesh,
asymptotically a developing country like Bangladesh may experience a 0.25 years of longer
lifespan in each year with all its socio-economic development and improvement of healthcare
facilities (UNFPA 2014a). This study assumes an increased life expectancy from the year
2011 to 2061 for all three scenarios (Table 4.1).

Table 4.1: Assumed TFR and life expectancy
Year Assumed TFR Projected Life Expectancy

Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Male Female
2011 2.3 2.3 2.3 67 68
2016 2.3 2.3 2.3 68 69
2021 2.3 2.1 2.1 69 70
2026 2.3 1.9 1.9 70 72
2031 2.3 1.9 1.6 71 73
2036 2.3 1.9 1.6 73 74
2041 2.3 1.9 1.6 74 75
2046 2.3 1.9 1.6 75 76
2051 2.3 1.9 1.6 77 78
2056 2.3 1.9 1.6 78 79
2061 2.3 1.9 1.6 79 80
Table 4.2: Proportionate Fertility Rate (PFR) for all Scenarios
Age Group 2011-31 2031-51 2051-61

15-19 0.254 0.212 0.180
20-24 0.330 0.320 0.310
25-29 0.231 0.252 0.262
30-34 0.121 0.142 0.161
35-39 0.045 0.053 0.064
40-44 0.013 0.015 0.016
45-49 0.006 0.006 0.007
Life table plays an important role in population projection because it brings the age-specific
mortality pattern in the calculation. To select the most appropriate life table for obtaining
age-specific mortality rates for the entire projected period, the current life table of SVRS
2011 is compared with several available model life tables. Among the available model life
tables, the Coale-Demeny and West model life tables were based on European mortality
experience. Later UN developed some model life tables for developing countries. Since
Bangladesh is a South Asian country, the SVRS 2011 life table is analytically compared with
both the UN South Asian and UN General model life table. It is found that although very
similar, but UN General model life table shows a much closer fit to the SVRS 2011 life table
(Figure 1). The standardized sum of squared deviations measures also show a slight
improvement from UN General model life table (UNG) over the UN south Asian model life
table (UNSA).

Figure 1: Comparative survival ratio of UN South Asia and UN General Life Tables

4.2 Population Projection without International Migration
Table 4.3 shows projected population for three scenarios corresponding to different assumed
TFRs and life expectancy values. It shows that population has increased over the projection
duration in all three scenarios. In high variant (scenario I) about 68 percent of population is
shown to be increased, ranges from 149,764 to 251,450 thousands. The total population will
remain in the range of 209,415 to 223,390 thousands in 2061 in scenarios III and II
accordingly. Only the scenario I meets the population size assumed by Bongaarts (1996),
which is 239 millions in 2050. TFR is assumed to be constant at 2.3 for entire projection
period under scenario I. Total projected population is about 42,035 thousands higher in
scenario I than that of scenario III. However, the increasing pattern of projected population
shows a diminishing rate from the year 2041 in scenarios II and III. Nonetheless all three
scenarios figured out an alarming large population after five decades, which could create new
challenges for current infrastructure and future development of Bangladesh.
Table 4.3: Baseline and projected total population for different assumption on TFR and life expectancy,
Bangladesh (in thousands)
Year Assumed TFR Projected Life Expectancy Projected Total Population
(in thousands)
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Male Female Scenario Scenario Scenario
I II III
2011 2.3 2.3 2.3 67 68 149764 149764 149764
2016 2.3 2.3 2.3 68 69 160221 160221 160221
2021 2.3 2.1 2.1 69 70 171684 171684 171684
2026 2.3 1.9 1.9 70 72 183593 182096 182096
2031 2.3 1.9 1.6 71 73 195176 190735 190735
2036 2.3 1.9 1.6 73 74 205793 198503 196299
2041 2.3 1.9 1.6 74 75 215899 205638 201314
2046 2.3 1.9 1.6 75 76 225386 211663 205255
2051 2.3 1.9 1.6 77 78 234382 216465 207869
2056 2.3 1.9 1.6 78 79 243287 220559 209466
2061 2.3 1.9 1.6 79 80 251450 223390 209415
4.2.1 Projected Population by Age Group
We have divided the age groups into four categories, namely, 0-14, 15-59, 60-64, 65+. The
labor force is defined by age group 15-59 which is very important for measuring a country’s
workforce. Table 4.4 states that labor force participation is quite high in all three scenarios
over the projected years. In 2061, the projected labor force seems to be near about the total
population of 2011. The age structure of projected population shows a curvature pattern for
all age groups, there are ups and downs in total numbers and proportion changes. Under-15

age group delineates a steady decline in scenarios II and III, it is about a difference of 21,374
thousands from 2011 to 2061 at the low variant scenario III. The labor force (15-59 age
group) of Bangladesh illustrates an absolute increasing pattern under the high fertility variant
(scenario I). Also scenarios II and III display an augmented labor force up to 2041 and
experience a bit shortfall thereafter. Most importantly the projected age structure displays
over a fivefold increase of elderly population of ages 65 year and above in all three scenarios.
Table 4.4: Baseline and projected population by three scenarios for selected age-groups, Bangladesh
(in thousands)
Year Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
Age 0 - 14 15 - 59 60 - 64 65+ 0 - 14 15 - 59 60 - 64 65+ 0 - 14 15 - 59 60 - 64 65+
2011 51868 86708 4089 7100 51868 86708 4089 7100 51868 86708 4089 7100
2016 48986 99417 3374 8443 48986 99417 3374 8443 48986 99417 3374 8443
2021 45817 111711 5129 9028 45817 111711 5129 9028 45817 111711 5129 9028
2026 47453 119378 5776 10985 45957 119378 5776 10985 45957 119378 5776 10985
2031 49550 124930 7439 13256 45109 124930 7439 13256 45109 124930 7439 13256
2036 50232 130408 8621 16531 42942 130408 8621 16531 40739 130408 8621 16531
2041 49984 135975 9520 20418 41166 134531 9520 20418 36843 134531 9520 20418
2046 49965 138776 12316 24330 40582 134436 12316 24330 34174 134436 12316 24330
2051 50588 141495 12251 30045 39863 134304 12251 30045 33411 132160 12251 30045
2056 51613 144660 11953 35060 39045 134502 11953 35060 32214 130240 11953 35060
2061 52574 144428 15623 38824 38121 130821 15623 38824 30494 124475 15623 38824
4.2.2 Projected Population by Sex
Male-female ratio is about fifty-fifty in Bangladesh population, this seems to be a plateau for
decades. Yearly male-female ratio may not depict any significant message; however the
population pyramids (Appendix 3) for medium variant will bring some lights for policy
makers. The maximum number of populations in 2011 was observed in the younger age
groups. Then gradually it shifts to middle and older age groups due to increased childbearing
age and higher life expectancy. The projected total populations by sex are presented in Table
4.5.

Table 4.5: Baseline and projected population by three scenarios and sex, Bangladesh (in thousands)

Male Female National Male Female National Male Female National
2011 74980 74784 149765 74980 74784 149765 74980 74784 149765
2016 80033 80186 160219 80033 80186 160219 80033 80186 160219
2021 85800 85884 171684 85800 85884 171684 85800 85884 171684
2026 91784 91807 183591 91053 91042 182095 91053 91042 182095
2031 97692 97484 195176 95520 95214 190734 95520 95214 190734
2036 103104 102689 205793 99539 98963 198502 98461 97838 196299
2041 108130 107767 215897 103118 102518 205636 101007 100305 201312
2046 112802 112584 225386 106103 105560 211663 102977 102279 205255
2051 117169 117211 234380 108425 108038 216463 104232 103635 207868
2056 121420 121867 243287 110329 110230 220560 104919 104548 209466
2061 125221 126229 251450 111528 111862 223390 104712 104704 209416
4.2.3 Population Projection in Different Scenarios

The size of population by 5-year age groups during the period 2011-2061 is presented in the
Tables 4.6-4.8. Table 4.6 gives the projected values for Scenario I. Except age groups 5-9
and 10-14, population in the groups up to 25-29 in 2061 increases by around 15% relative to
that of the base year 2011. The increase is much higher in the remaining age groups.
Table 4.6: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group, Bangladesh (in thousands): Scenario I
Age Year
group 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
0-4 15659 15175 16311 17206 17211 16893 16824 17069 17440 17754 17946
5-9 18894 14981 14571 15716 16658 16714 16474 16446 16723 17153 17491
10-14 17314 18831 14935 14532 15681 16625 16687 16450 16425 16707 17137
15-19 13375 17268 18785 14903 14505 15656 16603 16667 16433 16411 16694
20-24 13829 13328 17214 18733 14868 14475 15629 16578 16645 16415 16395
25-29 14017 13772 13278 17156 18680 14831 14445 15599 16550 16622 16395
30-34 10918 13945 13708 13223 17095 18620 14792 14410 15566 16522 16597
35-39 9945 10843 13858 13630 13158 17020 18552 14743 14368 15529 16486
40-44 8590 9843 10741 13740 13530 13069 16921 18455 14673 14312 15475
45-49 6628 8453 9699 10596 13576 13384 12944 16773 18308 14577 14227
50-54 5767 6453 8244 9476 10378 13319 13162 12743 16534 18091 14420
55-59 3640 5512 6184 7921 9140 10034 12928 12808 12420 16181 17740
60-64 4089 3374 5129 5776 7439 8621 9520 12316 12251 11953 15623
65-69 2194 3615 2997 4583 5202 6739 7884 8758 11403 11479 11247
70-74 2314 1805 2997 2502 3873 4433 5818 6871 7703 10211 10373
75-79 914 1713 1350 2267 1922 3012 3510 4667 5588 6429 8637
80+ 1677 1310 1683 1633 2260 2348 3206 4033 5352 6941 8567
Total 149764 160221 171684 183593 195176 205793 215899 225386 234382 243287 251450

Table 4.7: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group, Bangladesh (in thousands): Scenario II
Age Year
group 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
0-4 15659 15175 16311 15709 14218 13955 13773 13529 13162 12858 12520
5-9 18894 14981 14571 15716 15210 13807 13609 13464 13255 12945 12668
10-14 17314 18831 14935 14532 15681 15180 13785 13589 13446 13242 12933
15-19 13375 17268 18785 14903 14505 15656 15160 13769 13575 13435 13232
20-24 13829 13328 17214 18733 14868 14475 15629 15136 13750 13560 13422
25-29 14017 13772 13278 17156 18680 14831 14445 15599 15111 13731 13544
30-34 10918 13945 13708 13223 17095 18620 14792 14410 15566 15085 13710
35-39 9945 10843 13858 13630 13158 17020 18552 14743 14368 15529 15052
40-44 8590 9843 10741 13740 13530 13069 16921 18455 14673 14312 15475
45-49 6628 8453 9699 10596 13576 13384 12944 16773 18308 14577 14227
50-54 5767 6453 8244 9476 10378 13319 13162 12743 16534 18091 14420
55-59 3640 5512 6184 7921 9140 10034 12928 12808 12420 16181 17740
60-64 4089 3374 5129 5776 7439 8621 9520 12316 12251 11953 15623
65-69 2194 3615 2997 4583 5202 6739 7884 8758 11403 11479 11247
70-74 2314 1805 2997 2502 3873 4433 5818 6871 7703 10211 10373
75-79 914 1713 1350 2267 1922 3012 3510 4667 5588 6429 8637
80+ 1677 1310 1683 1633 2260 2348 3206 4033 5352 6941 8567
Total 149764 160221 171684 182096 190735 198503 205638 211663 216465 220559 223390
Table 4.8: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group, Bangladesh (in thousands): Scenario III
Age Year
group 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
0-4 15659 15175 16311 15709 14218 11751 11598 11393 10926 10317 9594
5-9 18894 14981 14571 15716 15210 13807 11460 11338 11162 10746 10164
10-14 17314 18831 14935 14532 15681 15180 13785 11443 11323 11151 10736
15-19 13375 17268 18785 14903 14505 15656 15160 13769 11431 11314 11142
20-24 13829 13328 17214 18733 14868 14475 15629 15136 13750 11419 11303
25-29 14017 13772 13278 17156 18680 14831 14445 15599 15111 13731 11405
30-34 10918 13945 13708 13223 17095 18620 14792 14410 15566 15085 13710
35-39 9945 10843 13858 13630 13158 17020 18552 14743 14368 15529 15052
40-44 8590 9843 10741 13740 13530 13069 16921 18455 14673 14312 15475
45-49 6628 8453 9699 10596 13576 13384 12944 16773 18308 14577 14227
50-54 5767 6453 8244 9476 10378 13319 13162 12743 16534 18091 14420
55-59 3640 5512 6184 7921 9140 10034 12928 12808 12420 16181 17740
60-64 4089 3374 5129 5776 7439 8621 9520 12316 12251 11953 15623
65-69 2194 3615 2997 4583 5202 6739 7884 8758 11403 11479 11247
70-74 2314 1805 2997 2502 3873 4433 5818 6871 7703 10211 10373
75-79 914 1713 1350 2267 1922 3012 3510 4667 5588 6429 8637
80+ 1677 1310 1683 1633 2260 2348 3206 4033 5352 6941 8567
Total 149764 160221 171684 182096 190735 196299 201314 205255 207869 209466 209415

The age-specific projected values for Scenario II are displayed in Table 4.7. Unlike in
scenario I, here we observe a decrease in the population up to the age group 25-29 relative to
that of the base year. In group 30-34 and onwards, population increases sharply. This
indicates movement of the population towards the older age groups.
Similar pattern is seen for Scenario III in Table 4.8. Up to the age group 25-29, population
decreases more rapidly in Scenario III than in Scenario II. Like the previous scenarios,
population increases in the age groups 30-34 and later. It is interesting to note that population
in the older age groups are almost identical across the scenarios.
4.2.4 Projected Rural-Urban Population
Urbanization has become a key striving factor in Bangladesh economy. There is huge labor
and temporary migration in mega cities like: Dhaka, Chittagong etc. only for job
opportunities and degradation of arable land. Still it is an agro-economy based country and
rural areas have much
Table 4.9: Baseline and projected total population by three scenarios and residences, Bangladesh (in thousands)

Urban Rural National Urban Rural National Urban Rural National
2011 35095 114678 149765 35095 114678 149765 35095 114678 149765
2016 44701 115518 160219 44701 115518 160219 44701 115518 160219
2021 50990 120694 171684 50990 120694 171684 50990 120694 171684
2026 58198 125393 183591 57724 124371 182095 57724 124371 182095
2031 65969 129206 195176 64468 126266 190734 64468 126266 190734
2036 74291 131502 205793 71659 126843 198502 70864 125435 196299
2041 83121 132777 215897 79170 126466 205636 77505 123807 201312
2046 92408 132978 225386 86782 124881 211663 84155 121100 205255
2051 102658 131721 234380 94811 121652 216463 91046 116822 207868
2056 113615 129672 243287 103001 117558 220560 97821 111646 209466
2061 125222 126228 251450 111248 112142 223390 104289 105127 209416
higher proportion of total population, but diminishing marginal income and low opportunity
cost play an important role for today’s urbanization. In this report, the projected urban
population is obtained from the projected national population using estimated proportion of
the urban population in projection years. The estimated proportion of urban population is
obtained using a log-linear model fitted to the observed proportion (obtained from SVRS
reports) over the years 1997-2011. The detail on the urban-rural projection is given in
appendix 1. Table 4.9 depicts a sharp increase in urban projected population in all three
scenarios. Scenario I consists the constant TFR at 2.3 all through the projection period and
eventually shows the higher trend in rural areas that is quite different from other two
scenarios, where the rural population is starting to lessen from the year 2036-41. Initiating

from 35,095 thousand population in 2011 urban population has a drastic growth in 2061 that
is more than twofold from the base year.
4.2.5 District-wise Projected Population
One of the objectives of this report is to project population of 64 districts of Bangladesh over
the period 2016-2061. The commonly used cohort component method is applied for
projection of different districts separately, where total population for male and female are
obtained from 2011 population census, the proportion of populations in different age groups
are obtained from long questionnaire census data, the same life expectancy values that were
used for national projection are also used for district projections. Ideally we need to assume
TFR values for 64 districts for the years of the period 2011-2061, which is not easy. The
detail list of districts of three categories is given in Appendix 2. Instead of this, 64 districts
are divided into three groups based on the corresponding TFR estimates obtained from 2011
population census.
For each group of districts, TFR values are assumed for the years over the period 2011-2061
(Table A3) and then cohort component method is applied for each district separately to obtain
projected district-wise total population. The main limitation of this approach of projecting
district-wise population is that it may give a different national projected population than that
was obtained in Table 4.3. To overcome this problem the proportion of national population
total for each district is estimated for the years of the period 2016-2061 and then district-
specific population are obtained by using the previously obtained national population for
different years.
According to BDHS (2014), only Dhaka division shows the increasing pattern of TFR, still
Chittagong and Sylhet divisions have high TFR, 2.5 and 2.9 respectively. Table 4.10a-4.10g
illustrates an increasing pattern of projected population in all 64 districts from the base-year
2011 to 2061, only scenario II is shown here. To be noted here, though we have made
district-wise projection, but for presentation purpose we grouped the districts within different
divisions. Division did not play any role in district-wise projection.
Table 4.10a: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Barisal division (in
thousands): Scenario II
District Year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
Total 8652 9145 9713 10241 10663 11020 11327 11568 11738 11865 11915
Barguna 928 969 1013 1054 1083 1104 1119 1125 1123 1116 1101
Barisal 2415 2583 2776 2950 3094 3224 3346 3454 3544 3625 3685
Bhola 1846 1941 2057 2173 2267 2342 2401 2442 2466 2477 2469
Jhalokati 710 741 778 812 836 854 867 874 876 874 866
Patuakhali 1596 1703 1823 1934 2028 2113 2191 2259 2315 2364 2401
Pirojpur 1157 1208 1266 1318 1355 1383 1403 1414 1414 1409 1393

Table 4.10b: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Chittagong division (in
thousands): Scenario II
District Year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
Total 29555 31980 34747 37307 39495 41532 43480 45245 46778 48167 49280
Bandarban 404 434 469 503 533 560 584 605 622 637 649
Brahmanbaria 2953 3255 3617 3978 4313 4649 4995 5338 5676 6013 6338
Chandpur 2514 2707 2929 3129 3299 3456 3606 3740 3855 3958 4037
Chittagong 7914 8440 8990 9460 9805 10080 10295 10429 10474 10456 10343
Comilla 5603 6046 6559 7033 7442 7820 8176 8495 8769 9014 9204
CBazar 2382 2655 2979 3295 3580 3865 4158 4450 4732 5010 5272
Feni 1496 1619 1754 1872 1971 2064 2153 2233 2300 2358 2401
Khagrachari 639 685 738 789 832 871 907 937 962 984 1000
Lakshimpur 1798 1995 2223 2435 2625 2818 3022 3227 3424 3620 3807
Noakhali 3232 3491 3799 4090 4346 4581 4802 5002 5175 5331 5453
Rangamati 620 653 690 723 749 768 782 789 789 786 776
Table 4.10c: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Khulna division (in thousands):
Scenario II
District Year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
Total 16308 17252 18217 19017 19609 20082 20462 20698 20777 20769 20622
Bagerhat 1534 1601 1675 1739 1783 1814 1834 1841 1835 1820 1793
Chuadanga 1175 1237 1299 1349 1384 1408 1424 1427 1419 1402 1376
Jessore 2876 3029 3182 3307 3391 3451 3492 3504 3486 3452 3390
Jhenaidha 1843 1976 2111 2223 2314 2395 2471 2533 2578 2614 2634
Khulna 2407 2528 2650 2750 2818 2867 2898 2907 2891 2862 2812
Kushtia 2024 2170 2318 2439 2538 2626 2708 2773 2821 2859 2882
Magura 955 1020 1091 1153 1205 1251 1294 1330 1358 1382 1399
Meherpur 681 716 750 777 794 806 813 813 805 794 778
Narail 750 801 856 906 949 987 1022 1053 1077 1099 1115
Satkhira 2063 2174 2285 2374 2433 2477 2506 2517 2507 2485 2443

Table 4.10d: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Dhaka division (in thousands):
Scenario II
District Year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
Total 49318 52539 56064 59289 61943 64294 66416 68157 69489 70587 71275
Dhaka 12516 13142 13798 14366 14777 15081 15291 15372 15323 15193 14936
Faridpur 1989 2088 2201 2304 2381 2441 2484 2509 2516 2512 2489
Gazipur 3548 3809 4046 4230 4358 4458 4534 4569 4556 4510 4418
Gopalganj 1218 1277 1346 1412 1462 1501 1530 1549 1556 1556 1545
Jamalpur 2385 2541 2713 2873 3013 3137 3249 3342 3417 3483 3532
Kishoregonj 3028 3311 3648 3985 4295 4605 4923 5237 5544 5852 6150
Madaripur 1212 1295 1393 1483 1560 1628 1692 1748 1796 1838 1871
Manikganj 1447 1542 1640 1724 1794 1857 1916 1964 2002 2034 2056
Munshiganj 1502 1583 1669 1743 1797 1839 1870 1887 1889 1881 1858
Mymensingh 5314 5807 6378 6932 7438 7947 8472 8990 9492 9993 10477
Narayanganj 3074 3284 3490 3662 3786 3883 3956 3995 3996 3972 3910
Narshingdi 2314 2489 2685 2866 3022 3164 3294 3407 3501 3584 3646
Netrokona 2317 2516 2759 3005 3235 3462 3695 3924 4148 4374 4592
Rajbari 1091 1144 1201 1252 1290 1318 1339 1349 1349 1342 1326
Shariatpur 1202 1284 1385 1481 1563 1639 1709 1772 1826 1876 1915
Sherpur 1412 1504 1607 1707 1794 1872 1943 2003 2052 2095 2128
Tangail 3749 3923 4105 4264 4378 4462 4519 4540 4526 4492 4426
Table 4.10e: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Rajshahi division (in thousands):
Scenario II
District Year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
Total 19225 20412 21607 22621 23398 24037 24559 24903 25056 25102 24977
Bogra 3539 3724 3903 4050 4151 4224 4270 4280 4254 4208 4129
CNwabganj 1714 1854 2003 2133 2242 2341 2432 2511 2574 2627 2666
Joypurhat 950 998 1042 1076 1097 1111 1118 1116 1104 1087 1062
Naogaon 2702 2844 2977 3082 3151 3198 3227 3228 3201 3159 3093
Natore 1775 1866 1956 2031 2082 2119 2142 2148 2134 2110 2070
Pabna 2625 2818 3019 3195 3345 3480 3606 3710 3791 3858 3903
Rajshahi 2699 2853 3000 3116 3193 3247 3282 3290 3267 3226 3159
Sirajgonj 3221 3455 3707 3938 4137 4317 4482 4620 4731 4827 4895

Table 4.10f: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Sylhet division (in thousands):
Scenario II
District Year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
Total 10296 11291 12463 13601 14642 15669 16711 17727 18702 19656 20556
Habiganj 2171 2386 2640 2891 3125 3358 3598 3834 4065 4294 4516
Maulavibazar 1994 2148 2324 2486 2626 2753 2870 2973 3059 3135 3192
Sunamganj 2564 2800 3091 3392 3677 3960 4245 4526 4802 5077 5343
Sylhet 3567 3957 4408 4832 5214 5598 5998 6394 6776 7150 7505
Table 4.10g: Baseline and projected total population by district and age-group, Rangpur division (in thousands):
Scenario II
District Year
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
Total 16412 17602 18868 20015 20986 21867 22678 23368 23925 24412 24770
Dinajpur 3110 3268 3430 3571 3672 3746 3795 3814 3801 3770 3711
Gaibandha 2472 2718 2975 3212 3424 3640 3865 4085 4294 4501 4700
Kurigram 2151 2301 2464 2613 2743 2860 2967 3057 3129 3193 3238
Lalmonirhat 1305 1398 1500 1595 1676 1748 1814 1870 1916 1955 1984
Nilphamari 1907 2049 2204 2346 2469 2579 2679 2763 2832 2892 2935
Panchagar 1026 1104 1188 1264 1328 1386 1438 1482 1517 1547 1567
Rangpur 2996 3211 3439 3643 3816 3972 4113 4231 4324 4403 4457
Thakurgaon 1445 1553 1668 1771 1858 1936 2007 2066 2112 2151 2178
4.2.6 Projected Labor Force and Dependency Ratio

It is interesting to note that the labor force and dependency ratio in all the three scenarios
have similar pattern: they decrease initially and then increase again, illustrated in table 4.11.
In Tables 4.6-4.8 we have seen the population to be shifted from early age groups to older
age groups. Therefore, the dependency ratio also starts to increase as the population in the
middle age groups increases gradually with time. Towards the end, it begins to increase as the
population in older age groups increases.
Table 4.11: Baseline and projected labor force (in percentage of total population) and dependency ratio
by three scenarios, Bangladesh
Year Labor Force (15-59) Dependency Ratio (0-14 and 65+)

Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
2011 0.579 0.579 0.579 0.649 0.694 0.649
2016 0.621 0.621 0.621 0.559 0.559 0.559
2021 0.651 0.651 0.651 0.469 0.469 0.469
2026 0.650 0.656 0.656 0.467 0.455 0.455
2031 0.640 0.655 0.655 0.474 0.441 0.441
2036 0.634 0.657 0.664 0.480 0.428 0.412
2041 0.630 0.654 0.668 0.484 0.428 0.398
2046 0.616 0.635 0.655 0.492 0.442 0.399
2051 0.604 0.620 0.636 0.524 0.477 0.439
2056 0.595 0.610 0.622 0.553 0.506 0.473
2061 0.574 0.586 0.594 0.571 0.525 0.495

4.2.7 Projected Women in Reproductive Age
Table 4.12 delineates the future mothers at reproductive age. An efficient future generation is
only possible from an efficient group of mothers. If the future mothers (ranges from 39,939 to
54,798 thousands) are nurtured with proper health care, nourishment and education, then
Bangladesh may opt for the rapid development with large population turning into a large
manpower. Figure 2 shows a comparison of projected female population at reproductive ages
for three scenarios.
Table 4.12: Projected Female Population Aged 15-49 Years (mothers accounted for TFR) in Three
Scenarios (in thousands)
Year Female Population (15-49) (Thousands)
Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
2011 39939 39939 39939

2016 44903 44903 44903
2021 49729 49729 49729
2026 51874 51874 51874
2031 53242 53242 53242
2036 53349 53349 53349
2041 53686 52981 52981

2046 55258 53137 53137
2051 55014 51500 50453
2056 53957 48997 46918
2061 54798 48158 45063
Figure 2: Projected female population aged 15-49 years (mothers accounted for TFR) in
three scenarios (in 100,000)

4.2.8 Projection of Primary School Enrollment
Projection on the primary school enrollment is a key factor for policy research. It can provide
the basis of resource allocation for the primary schools, infrastructures, curriculum of the
future generation. Table 4.13 shows about 12,411 to 15,288 thousands projected primary
students in next five decades by the scenarios III and II. There is an apparent sharp decline in
the primary school enrollment, where TFR is assumed to be lower than replacement level,
country may prioritize on the technological development rather than the infrastructural.
Figure 3 shows a comparison of projected population at primary school enrollment ages for
three scenarios.
Table 4.13: Projected primary school enrollment (6-11 years old in thousands) in three scenarios
Year School Population (Thousands)

Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
2011 19496 19496 19496
2016 19496 19496 19496
2021 17249 17249 17249
2026 18346 18418 18418
2031 19683 18564 18564
2036 20076 17034 17140
2041 19830 16294 14524
2046 19691 16198 13486
2051 19923 15975 13477
2056 20408 15637 13057
2061 20864 15288 12411
Figure 3: Projected primary school enrollment (6-11 years old in millions) in three scenarios

Bangladesh in a given year- which is also called the “international migration stock”. The
source tells that the number of foreign born male population in Bangladesh was 1.2 million,
whereas the number of foreign born female population was almost 0.19 million in 2013. It
also provides age and sex specific numbers and the proportions look more realistic compared
to the age and sex specific proportion of out-migration. In lieu of using indirect method of
projecting migration, we used the data on international migration stock by United Nations
Population Division as an estimate of in-migration and the data obtained from the module 9
of long questionnaire survey of BBS in the base year 2011 as the estimate of out-migration.
This study ignored the net migration rate for the age group 0-4 years because the out-
migration for this age-group was not available. Table 4.14 shows net migration rate and
absolute number of migrants by age and sex.
Table 4.14: Estimated net migration rate and number of net migrants by age-group by sex (per 100,000)
Age Group Net Migration Rate Number of net migrants

Female Male Female Male
0-4 - - - -
5-9 0.00164 0.00294 1643 2937
10-14 0.00198 0.00826 1975 8263
15-19 -0.00235 -0.06168 -2350 -61680
20-24 -0.00544 -0.16486 -5440 -164860
25-29 -0.00188 -0.11695 -1880 -116950
30-34 -0.00187 -0.07463 -1870 -74630
35-39 0.00014 -0.06115 143 -61150
40-44 0.00156 -0.03633 1562 -36330
45-49 0.00162 -0.01738 1617 -17380
50-54 0.00140 -0.00337 1395 -3370
55-59 0.00122 -0.00127 1223 -1270
60-64 0.00070 -0.00043 696 -430
65+ 0.00058 0.00213 581 2134
Projected population considering international migration has been made for scenario II and
presented in Table 4.15. It shows that if we consider international migration, then the total
population is going to be 219.70 million. For a country like Bangladesh the net migration
rates at middle ages are always negative. More people leave the country for work and
education than the number that comes in. This fact is also reflected in our estimated net
migration rates. Here is a representation of the age and sex specific net migration rates that
we have derived from the above mentioned sources. The rates were available only up to the
age group 65+.

Table 4.15: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group including international
migration, Bangladesh (in thousands), Scenario II
Age Year
Group
2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
0-4 15659 15175 16311 15709 14218 13955 13773 13529 13162 12858 12520
5-9 18938 15015 14604 15752 15245 13839 13640 13495 13286 12975 12697
10-14 17405 18929 15013 14607 15762 15259 13856 13660 13516 13310 13000
15-19 12942 16697 18169 14419 14030 15143 14664 13319 13131 12995 12798
20-24 12796 12180 15700 17099 13584 13214 14267 13819 12555 12380 12251
25-29 13246 13057 12480 16102 17542 13937 13566 14650 14193 12898 12721
30-34 10513 13451 13249 12711 16420 17891 14218 13847 14957 14495 13175
35-39 9646 10523 13468 13270 12752 16483 17972 14286 13919 15044 14583
40-44 8435 9676 10562 13521 13329 12839 16617 18125 14414 14057 15199
45-49 6572 8384 9624 10516 13479 13295 12840 16636 18159 14460 14112
50-54 5760 6445 8235 9468 10368 13309 13154 12730 16517 18072 14406
55-59 3639 5512 6183 7920 9140 10034 12929 12810 12419 16180 17739
60-64 4089 3374 5130 5776 7440 8622 9521 12318 12254 11954 15625
65+ 7110 8455 9040 11000 13274 16554 20446 24362 30084 35105 38874
Total 146750 156873 167768 177870 186583 194374 201463 207586 212566 216783 219700
4.4 Population Projection with International Migration
A comparative picture of projected population is shown in table 4.16 from four different
institutions based on the different base years.
Table 4.16: Baseline and projected total population by 5-year age-group, Bangladesh 2050-51 (in millions)
Age group UN Census Bureau World Bank BBS (2007) ISRT (2015): scenario II
(in 2050) (in 2050) (in 2051) (in 2051)
0-4 15.79 11.21 14.53 13.16
5-9 15.80 11.63 14.19 13.26
10-14 16.01 12.07 13.82 13.45
15-19 16.07 12.45 13.92 13.58
20-24 15.86 12.86 14.60 13.75
25-29 15.57 13.38 15.11 15.11
30-34 15.33 13.71 14.84 15.57
35-39 15.40 13.84 13.55 14.37
40-44 16.14 13.69 13.31 14.67
45-49 16.81 14.34 14.82 18.31
50-54 15.97 14.24 15.69 16.53
Contd.

Age group UN Census Bureau World Bank BBS (2007) ISRT (2015): scenario II
(in 2050) (in 2050) (in 2051) (in 2051)
55-59 14.53 13.51 16.18 12.42
60-64 12.85 12.27 14.52 12.25
65-69 10.58 10.72 10.03 11.40
70-74 9.09 8.53 7.93 7.70
75-79 6.27 6.06 6.08 5.59
80+ 5.52 7.41 5.55 5.35
Total 233.59 201.95 218.64 216.46

5. CONCLUSION
In this study, an attempt has been made to project the population in Bangladesh and explore
the distributions among various sectors. Three different scenarios have been chosen on the
basis of policy options that may emerge in the socio-economic setting of Bangladesh. In
2061, the population of Bangladesh is estimated to be 251,450 thousand under high variant
fertility assumption (scenario I), 223,390 thousand under medium variant fertility assumption
(scenario II) and 209,415 thousand under low variant fertility assumption (scenario III). The
obtained population has been split into different sectors like school going children, youth,
labour force, dependents, etc. The figures there can help government and non-government
agencies in formulating their policies. The population at national level is also presented in
single-years to make it suitable to different stakeholders.
The age structure of projected population shows a curvature pattern for all age groups, there
are ups and downs in total numbers and proportion changes. A sharp increase of urbanization
has been depicted in all three scenarios. The age-specific projected values show that at the
age of 30-34 and onwards, population increases sharply. This indicates movement of the
population towards the older age groups, the increase in the old age population will pose a
formidable challenge to the policy makers if necessary measures to take care of the old age
population are not considered with top priority. This increased projected population could
create implementation and institutional challenges.

Appendixes
Appendix 1: Assumptions for urban-rural population projection
In Section 4, the projected national population is reported for 10 different years over the
period 2016-2061. In this section, the methods of projecting urban and rural populations are
described for the same 10 years. Given the national projected population, the urban projected
population of a specific year is obtained by using the estimated proportion of urban
population of the same year. To obtain the estimated proportion of urban population for the
entire projected years 2016–2061, the SVRS estimates of the proportion of urban population
over the years 1997–2011 (Table A1) are used to construct a model.
Table A1: Time series of percentage of urban population
Year Urban population

1997 21.71
1998 22.12
1999 22.43
2000 22.89
2001 23.08
2002 23.02
2003 23.22
2004 23.73
2005 24.24
2006 24.61
2007 25.04
2008 25.09
2009 25.49
2010 25.91
2011 25.90
Using the fitted model for the proportion of urban population at time t, pu=exp (‐
22.68+0.0129t), the predicted percentage of urban population for different years are given in
the Table A2.. Using this proportion, the projected urban and rural populations of a year are
obtained from the corresponding projected national population.
Table A2. Projected percentage of urban population for different years over the period 2016-2061
Year 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 2036 2041 2046 2051 2056 2061
pu 26.1 27.9 29.7 31.7 33.8 36.1 38.5 41.0 43.8 46.7 49.8

Appendix 2: Assumptions for district-wise population projection
Below the list of Group-A districts for which the TFR estimates range from 1.51 to 1.99.
Bagerhat, Barguna, Bhola, Bogra, Chittagong, Chuadanga, Dhaka, Dinajpur, Faridpur,

Gazipur, Gopalganj, Jhalokati, Jessore, Joypurhat, Khulna, Manikganj, Meherpur,
Munshiganj, Naogaon, Narayanganj, Natore, Pirojpur, Rajbari, Rajshahi, Rangamati,
Satkhira, and Tangail.
The districts of Group-B for which the TFR estimates range from 2.02 to 2.5 are:
Bandarban, Barisal, Chapai-nwabganj, Chandpur, Comilla, Feni, Jamalpur, Jhenaidha,

Khagrachari, Kurigram, Kushtia, Lalmonirhat, Madaripur, Magura, Maulavibazar, Narail,
Narshingdi, Nilphamari, Noakhali, Pabna, Panchagar, Patuakhali, Rangpur, Shariatpur,
Sherpur, Sirajgonj, and Thakurgaon.
And the districts of Group-C for which the TFR estimates range from 2.54 to 3.48 are:
Brahmanbaria, Coxes Bazar, Gaibandha, Habiganj, Kishoregonj, Lakshimpur, Mymensingh,

Netrokona, Sunamganj, and Sylhet.
Table A3: Assumed TFR values for three groups of districts
Groups of districts
Year
Group A Group B Group C
2011 1.80 2.30 3.00
2016 1.80 2.30 3.00
2021 1.70 2.10 2.70
2026 1.50 1.90 2.40
2031 1.50 1.90 2.40
2036 1.50 1.90 2.40
2041 1.50 1.90 2.40
2046 1.50 1.90 2.40
2051 1.50 1.90 2.40
2056 1.50 1.90 2.40
2061 1.50 1.90 2.40

Appendix 3: Age-specific Male-Female Distribution Pyramids

Appendix 4: Baseline and projected population by three scenarios, 5-year age-group and sex,
Year Age group Scenario I Scenario II Scenario III
Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total
2011 0-4 7719 7940 15659 7719 7940 15659 7719 7940 15659
5-9 9199 9695 18894 9199 9695 18894 9199 9695 18894
10-14 8354 8960 17314 8354 8960 17314 8354 8960 17314
15-19 6604 6771 13375 6604 6771 13375 6604 6771 13375
20-24 7823 6006 13829 7823 6006 13829 7823 6006 13829
25-29 7547 6471 14017 7547 6471 14017 7547 6471 14017
30-34 5639 5279 10918 5639 5279 10918 5639 5279 10918
35-39 5056 4889 9945 5056 4889 9945 5056 4889 9945
40-44 4136 4454 8590 4136 4454 8590 4136 4454 8590
45-49 3134 3494 6628 3134 3494 6628 3134 3494 6628
50-54 2700 3067 5767 2700 3067 5767 2700 3067 5767
55-59 1638 2002 3640 1638 2002 3640 1638 2002 3640
60-64 1922 2167 4089 1922 2167 4089 1922 2167 4089
65-69 1002 1192 2194 1002 1192 2194 1002 1192 2194
70-74 1062 1252 2314 1062 1252 2314 1062 1252 2314
75-79 404 510 914 404 510 914 404 510 914
80+ 845 832 1677 845 832 1677 845 832 1677
2016 0-4 7413 7762 15175 7413 7762 15175 7413 7762 15175
5-9 7370 7611 14981 7370 7611 14981 7370 7611 14981
10-14 9169 9662 18831 9169 9662 18831 9169 9662 18831
15-19 8332 8935 17268 8332 8935 17268 8332 8935 17268
20-24 6581 6747 13328 6581 6747 13328 6581 6747 13328
25-29 7791 5980 13772 7791 5980 13772 7791 5980 13772
30-34 7509 6436 13945 7509 6436 13945 7509 6436 13945
35-39 5602 5241 10843 5602 5241 10843 5602 5241 10843
40-44 5009 4835 9843 5009 4835 9843 5009 4835 9843
45-49 4078 4375 8453 4078 4375 8453 4078 4375 8453
50-54 3064 3389 6453 3064 3389 6453 3064 3389 6453
55-59 2598 2914 5512 2598 2914 5512 2598 2914 5512
60-64 1534 1839 3374 1534 1839 3374 1534 1839 3374
65-69 1723 1891 3615 1723 1891 3615 1723 1891 3615
70-74 839 967 1805 839 967 1805 839 967 1805
75-79 799 914 1713 799 914 1713 799 914 1713
80+ 621 689 1310 621 689 1310 621 689 1310

2021 0-4 7966 8344 16311 7966 8344 16311 7966 8344 16311
5-9 7103 7467 14571 7103 7467 14571 7103 7467 14571
10-14 7348 7587 14935 7348 7587 14935 7348 7587 14935
15-19 9148 9637 18785 9148 9637 18785 9148 9637 18785
20-24 8307 8907 17214 8307 8907 17214 8307 8907 17214
25-29 6557 6721 13278 6557 6721 13278 6557 6721 13278
30-34 7756 5951 13708 7756 5951 13708 7756 5951 13708
35-39 7464 6394 13858 7464 6394 13858 7464 6394 13858
40-44 5554 5188 10741 5554 5188 10741 5554 5188 10741
45-49 4944 4755 9699 4944 4755 9699 4944 4755 9699
50-54 3993 4251 8244 3993 4251 8244 3993 4251 8244
55-59 2955 3229 6184 2955 3229 6184 2955 3229 6184
60-64 2442 2687 5129 2442 2687 5129 2442 2687 5129
65-69 1382 1614 2997 1382 1614 2997 1382 1614 2997
70-74 1452 1545 2997 1452 1545 2997 1452 1545 2997
75-79 638 713 1350 638 713 1350 638 713 1350
80+ 790 893 1683 790 893 1683 790 893 1683
2026 0-4 8402 8803 17206 7671 8038 15709 7671 8038 15709
5-9 7660 8056 15716 7660 8056 15716 7660 8056 15716
10-14 7085 7447 14532 7085 7447 14532 7085 7447 14532
15-19 7333 7570 14903 7333 7570 14903 7333 7570 14903
20-24 9123 9610 18733 9123 9610 18733 9123 9610 18733
25-29 8280 8876 17156 8280 8876 17156 8280 8876 17156
30-34 6531 6691 13223 6531 6691 13223 6531 6691 13223
35-39 7714 5916 13630 7714 5916 13630 7714 5916 13630
40-44 7405 6335 13740 7405 6335 13740 7405 6335 13740
45-49 5487 5108 10596 5487 5108 10596 5487 5108 10596
50-54 4847 4629 9476 4847 4629 9476 4847 4629 9476
55-59 3860 4061 7921 3860 4061 7921 3860 4061 7921
60-64 2787 2989 5776 2787 2989 5776 2787 2989 5776
65-69 2211 2371 4583 2211 2371 4583 2211 2371 4583
70-74 1173 1329 2502 1173 1329 2502 1173 1329 2502
75-79 1116 1151 2267 1116 1151 2267 1116 1151 2267
80+ 769 864 1633 769 864 1633 769 864 1633

2031 0-4 8423 8788 17211 6959 7259 14218 6959 7259 14218
5-9 8130 8528 16658 7423 7787 15210 7423 7787 15210
10-14 7644 8037 15681 7644 8037 15681 7644 8037 15681
15-19 7073 7432 14505 7073 7432 14505 7073 7432 14505
20-24 7317 7551 14868 7317 7551 14868 7317 7551 14868
25-29 9100 9580 18680 9100 9580 18680 9100 9580 18680
30-34 8254 8841 17095 8254 8841 17095 8254 8841 17095
35-39 6503 6656 13158 6503 6656 13158 6503 6656 13158
40-44 7664 5866 13530 7664 5866 13530 7664 5866 13530
45-49 7330 6246 13576 7330 6246 13576 7330 6246 13576
50-54 5395 4983 10378 5395 4983 10378 5395 4983 10378
55-59 4705 4434 9140 4705 4434 9140 4705 4434 9140
60-64 3665 3774 7439 3665 3774 7439 3665 3774 7439
65-69 2550 2652 5202 2550 2652 5202 2550 2652 5202
70-74 1906 1967 3873 1906 1967 3873 1906 1967 3873
75-79 922 1000 1922 922 1000 1922 922 1000 1922
80+ 1110 1150 2260 1110 1150 2260 1110 1150 2260
2036 0-4 8266 8627 16893 6829 7126 13955 5750 6001 11751
5-9 8174 8540 16714 6753 7055 13807 6753 7055 13807
10-14 8115 8510 16625 7410 7770 15180 7410 7770 15180
15-19 7633 8022 15656 7633 8022 15656 7633 8022 15656
20-24 7060 7415 14475 7060 7415 14475 7060 7415 14475
25-29 7301 7530 14831 7301 7530 14831 7301 7530 14831
30-34 9075 9546 18620 9075 9546 18620 9075 9546 18620
35-39 8222 8798 17020 8222 8798 17020 8222 8798 17020
40-44 6465 6605 13069 6465 6605 13069 6465 6605 13069
45-49 7593 5790 13384 7593 5790 13384 7593 5790 13384
50-54 7216 6103 13319 7216 6103 13319 7216 6103 13319
55-59 5248 4786 10034 5248 4786 10034 5248 4786 10034
60-64 4483 4138 8621 4483 4138 8621 4483 4138 8621
65-69 3371 3368 6739 3371 3368 6739 3371 3368 6739
70-74 2215 2218 4433 2215 2218 4433 2215 2218 4433
75-79 1515 1497 3012 1515 1497 3012 1515 1497 3012
80+ 1151 1196 2348 1151 1196 2348 1151 1196 2348

2041 0-4 8213 8611 16824 6723 7049 13773 5662 5936 11598
5-9 8043 8431 16474 6644 6965 13609 5595 5865 11460
10-14 8161 8526 16687 6742 7043 13785 6742 7043 13785
15-19 8105 8498 16603 7400 7759 15160 7400 7759 15160
20-24 7621 8008 15629 7621 8008 15629 7621 8008 15629
25-29 7047 7398 14445 7047 7398 14445 7047 7398 14445
30-34 7283 7509 14792 7283 7509 14792 7283 7509 14792
35-39 9043 9509 18552 9043 9509 18552 9043 9509 18552
40-44 8178 8743 16921 8178 8743 16921 8178 8743 16921
45-49 6410 6534 12944 6410 6534 12944 6410 6534 12944
50-54 7484 5678 13162 7484 5678 13162 7484 5678 13162
55-59 7034 5894 12928 7034 5894 12928 7034 5894 12928
60-64 5018 4502 9520 5018 4502 9520 5018 4502 9520
65-69 4146 3737 7884 4146 3737 7884 4146 3737 7884
70-74 2952 2866 5818 2952 2866 5818 2952 2866 5818
75-79 1782 1728 3510 1782 1728 3510 1782 1728 3510
80+ 1610 1596 3206 1610 1596 3206 1610 1596 3206
2046 0-4 8334 8735 17069 6605 6923 13529 5562 5830 11393
5-9 8011 8435 16446 6558 6905 13464 5523 5815 11338
10-14 8032 8418 16450 6635 6954 13589 5587 5856 11443
15-19 8152 8515 16667 6734 7034 13769 6734 7034 13769
20-24 8093 8484 16578 7390 7747 15136 7390 7747 15136
25-29 7608 7992 15599 7608 7992 15599 7608 7992 15599
30-34 7031 7380 14410 7031 7380 14410 7031 7380 14410
35-39 7260 7483 14743 7260 7483 14743 7260 7483 14743
40-44 8999 9455 18455 8999 9455 18455 8999 9455 18455
45-49 8115 8658 16773 8115 8658 16773 8115 8658 16773
50-54 6325 6417 12743 6325 6417 12743 6325 6417 12743
55-59 7311 5497 12808 7311 5497 12808 7311 5497 12808
60-64 6748 5568 12316 6748 5568 12316 6748 5568 12316
65-69 4665 4093 8758 4665 4093 8758 4665 4093 8758
70-74 3661 3210 6871 3661 3210 6871 3661 3210 6871
75-79 2405 2263 4667 2405 2263 4667 2405 2263 4667
80+ 2052 1980 4033 2052 1980 4033 2052 1980 4033

2051 0-4 8516 8924 17440 6427 6735 13162 5335 5591 10926
5-9 8148 8575 16723 6458 6797 13255 5438 5724 11162
10-14 8001 8424 16425 6550 6896 13446 5516 5807 11323
15-19 8024 8409 16433 6628 6947 13575 5582 5850 11431
20-24 8142 8503 16645 6726 7024 13750 6726 7024 13750
25-29 8081 8469 16550 7378 7733 15111 7378 7733 15111
30-34 7592 7974 15566 7592 7974 15566 7592 7974 15566
35-39 7011 7357 14368 7011 7357 14368 7011 7357 14368
40-44 7229 7445 14673 7229 7445 14673 7229 7445 14673
45-49 8936 9372 18308 8936 9372 18308 8936 9372 18308
50-54 8017 8517 16534 8017 8517 16534 8017 8517 16534
55-59 6190 6229 12420 6190 6229 12420 6190 6229 12420
60-64 7036 5215 12251 7036 5215 12251 7036 5215 12251
65-69 6308 5095 11403 6308 5095 11403 6308 5095 11403
70-74 4154 3549 7703 4154 3549 7703 4154 3549 7703
75-79 3019 2568 5588 3019 2568 5588 3019 2568 5588
80+ 2766 2586 5352 2766 2586 5352 2766 2586 5352
2056 0-4 8673 9081 17754 6281 6577 12858 5040 5277 10317
5-9 8360 8792 17153 6309 6635 12945 5238 5508 10746
10-14 8140 8567 16707 6452 6790 13242 5433 5718 11151
15-19 7995 8416 16411 6545 6890 13435 5512 5802 11314
20-24 8015 8399 16415 6621 6939 13560 5576 5843 11419
25-29 8131 8491 16622 6717 7014 13731 6717 7014 13731
30-34 8068 8454 16522 7366 7719 15085 7366 7719 15085
35-39 7575 7954 15529 7575 7954 15529 7575 7954 15529
40-44 6986 7326 14312 6986 7326 14312 6986 7326 14312
45-49 7187 7390 14577 7187 7390 14577 7187 7390 14577
50-54 8846 9245 18091 8846 9245 18091 8846 9245 18091
55-59 7874 8307 16181 7874 8307 16181 7874 8307 16181
60-64 5995 5958 11953 5995 5958 11953 5995 5958 11953
65-69 6645 4835 11479 6645 4835 11479 6645 4835 11479
70-74 5707 4503 10211 5707 4503 10211 5707 4503 10211
75-79 3511 2918 6429 3511 2918 6429 3511 2918 6429
80+ 3712 3229 6941 3712 3229 6941 3712 3229 6941

2061 0-4 8769 9177 17946 6118 6403 12520 4688 4906 9594
5-9 8530 8961 17491 6178 6490 12668 4957 5207 10164
10-14 8353 8784 17137 6304 6629 12933 5233 5503 10736
15-19 8134 8560 16694 6447 6785 13232 5429 5713 11142
20-24 7987 8408 16395 6539 6883 13422 5506 5796 11303
25-29 8006 8389 16395 6614 6930 13544 5570 5836 11405
30-34 8120 8477 16597 6707 7003 13710 6707 7003 13710
35-39 8051 8435 16486 7351 7702 15052 7351 7702 15052
40-44 7550 7924 15475 7550 7924 15475 7550 7924 15475
45-49 6949 7278 14227 6949 7278 14227 6949 7278 14227
50-54 7121 7300 14420 7121 7300 14420 7121 7300 14420
55-59 8702 9037 17740 8702 9037 17740 8702 9037 17740
60-64 7646 7977 15623 7646 7977 15623 7646 7977 15623
65-69 5689 5558 11247 5689 5558 11247 5689 5558 11247
70-74 6060 4314 10373 6060 4314 10373 6060 4314 10373
75-79 4884 3753 8637 4884 3753 8637 4884 3753 8637
80+ 4670 3898 8567 4670 3898 8567 4670 3898 8567

Appendix 5: Baseline and projected population for medium variant, single age and sex,
Year 2011 2016 2021

Age Female Male Total Female Male Total Female Male Total
0 1266 1293 2559 1725 1837 3562 1700 1755 3455
1 1436 1470 2906 1550 1633 3183 1642 1712 3354
2 1574 1616 3190 1432 1495 2927 1588 1668 3256
3 1682 1735 3417 1365 1414 2779 1539 1625 3164
4 1762 1826 3588 1341 1382 2723 1497 1583 3080
5 1816 1893 3709 1354 1392 2746 1461 1545 3006
6 1848 1937 3785 1396 1436 2832 1432 1512 2944
7 1858 1959 3817 1459 1505 2964 1412 1485 2897
8 1851 1961 3812 1538 1591 3129 1400 1467 2867
9 1826 1945 3771 1623 1687 3310 1398 1458 2856
10 1792 1915 3707 1720 1795 3515 1399 1451 2850
11 1753 1876 3629 1829 1917 3746 1396 1438 2834
12 1694 1815 3509 1895 1995 3890 1427 1466 2893
13 1607 1728 3335 1890 2000 3890 1508 1555 3063
14 1508 1625 3133 1836 1954 3790 1617 1679 3296
15 1408 1520 2928 1791 1913 3704 1719 1794 3513
16 1297 1411 2708 1749 1872 3621 1825 1913 3738
17 1244 1323 2567 1688 1809 3497 1889 1988 3877
18 1281 1271 2552 1601 1722 3323 1883 1993 3876
19 1374 1245 2619 1503 1620 3123 1831 1949 3780
20 1458 1216 2674 1404 1516 2920 1786 1908 3694
21 1544 1183 2727 1293 1406 2699 1744 1866 3610
22 1604 1174 2778 1239 1318 2557 1682 1803 3485
23 1618 1196 2814 1276 1266 2542 1596 1716 3312
24 1599 1236 2835 1369 1240 2609 1498 1614 3112
25 1587 1277 2864 1452 1211 2663 1399 1510 2909
26 1578 1326 2904 1538 1179 2717 1288 1401 2689
27 1542 1342 2884 1598 1169 2767 1235 1313 2548
28 1468 1301 2769 1611 1191 2802 1271 1261 2532
29 1371 1225 2596 1592 1231 2823 1364 1235 2599
30 1273 1156 2429 1579 1271 2850 1446 1206 2652
31 1166 1083 2249 1571 1320 2891 1531 1173 2704
32 1088 1028 2116 1534 1335 2869 1591 1164 2755
33 1057 1006 2063 1461 1294 2755 1604 1185 2789
34 1055 1006 2061 1364 1218 2582 1584 1224 2808
35 1048 999 2047 1266 1148 2414 1571 1263 2834
36 1042 990 2032 1159 1076 2235 1562 1312 2874
37 1026 980 2006 1081 1021 2102 1525 1326 2851
38 993 968 1961 1049 999 2048 1451 1285 2736
39 948 952 1900 1047 997 2044 1355 1209 2564
40 908 938 1846 1039 990 2029 1257 1139 2396

Year 2011 2016 2021
41 871 927 1798 1033 980 2013 1150 1066 2216
42 830 905 1735 1017 970 1987 1071 1010 2081
43 786 866 1652 983 956 1939 1039 987 2026
44 741 818 1559 937 939 1876 1037 985 2022
45 695 770 1465 897 924 1821 1028 976 2004
46 647 719 1366 859 912 1771 1020 966 1986
47 610 680 1290 819 889 1708 1004 954 1958
48 594 664 1258 774 849 1623 969 939 1908
49 588 661 1249 729 800 1529 923 920 1843
50 583 656 1239 683 752 1435 882 903 1785
51 583 656 1239 634 700 1334 843 888 1731
52 565 638 1203 597 660 1257 802 864 1666
53 517 591 1108 579 642 1221 757 823 1580
54 452 527 979 572 636 1208 710 773 1483
55 391 466 857 564 629 1193 663 723 1386
56 325 401 726 563 625 1188 614 670 1284
57 288 363 651 544 606 1150 576 629 1205
58 298 369 667 496 559 1055 556 608 1164
59 337 402 739 432 496 928 546 598 1144
60 371 430 801 372 436 808 536 587 1123
61 412 464 876 307 373 680 531 580 1111
62 424 472 896 270 334 604 510 558 1068
63 389 433 822 276 335 611 463 511 974
64 325 368 693 309 360 669 401 451 852
65 268 308 576 337 381 718 343 393 736
66 206 244 450 371 408 779 282 333 615
67 168 204 372 380 411 791 244 294 538
68 168 205 373 347 375 722 245 289 534
69 192 230 422 287 315 602 269 305 574
70 212 251 463 234 261 495 290 319 609
71 236 276 512 180 206 386 318 339 657
72 241 281 522 142 168 310 322 338 660
73 211 249 460 135 160 295 289 303 592
74 162 196 358 147 172 319 233 247 480
75 124 154 278 153 177 330 188 202 390
76 95 121 216 157 181 338 152 166 318
77 72 93 165 161 184 345 120 134 254
78 58 74 132 164 186 350 96 111 207
79 55 67 122 164 185 349 82 99 181
80+ 845 832 1677 621 689 1310 790 893 1683

Year 2026 2031 2036
1462 1530 2992 1361 1416 2777 1446 1511 2957
0
1 1515 1586 3101 1374 1431 2805 1390 1451 2841
2 1550 1623 3173 1389 1449 2838 1351 1409 2760
3 1570 1645 3215 1407 1470 2877 1326 1384 2710
4 1576 1653 3229 1427 1493 2920 1316 1372 2688
1571 1649 3220 1447 1516 2963 1316 1374 2690

5
1557 1636 3193 1467 1538 3005 1327 1385 2712
6
1536 1616 3152 1487 1560 3047 1345 1405 2750
7
8 1511 1591 3102 1504 1579 3083 1369 1431 2800
9 1484 1563 3047 1518 1595 3113 1396 1461 2857
10 1456 1534 2990 1532 1610 3142 1428 1495 2923
11 1427 1506 2933 1548 1627 3175 1462 1532 2994
1406 1482 2888 1549 1628 3177 1491 1563 3054

12
1397 1466 2863 1526 1605 3131 1509 1584 3093
13
14 1399 1458 2857 1489 1567 3056 1520 1596 3116
15 1400 1451 2851 1456 1534 2990 1532 1609 3141
16 1394 1435 2829 1425 1503 2928 1547 1624 3171
17 1423 1461 2884 1403 1478 2881 1546 1624 3170
18 1503 1550 3053 1393 1462 2855 1523 1601 3124
1613 1674 3287 1396 1455 2851 1486 1564 3050

19
1715 1790 3505 1397 1447 2844 1454 1531 2985
20
21 1821 1908 3729 1391 1432 2823 1423 1500 2923
22 1883 1983 3866 1420 1457 2877 1400 1475 2875
23 1878 1987 3865 1500 1545 3045 1391 1458 2849
24 1826 1943 3769 1609 1669 3278 1394 1451 2845
25 1781 1902 3683 1711 1784 3495 1394 1444 2838
1739 1860 3599 1816 1902 3718 1388 1428 2816

26

Year 2026 2031 2036
27 1677 1797 3474 1879 1976 3855 1417 1453 2870
28 1591 1710 3301 1873 1981 3854 1496 1541 3037
29 1493 1608 3101 1821 1936 3757 1605 1664 3269
30 1394 1504 2898 1776 1895 3671 1707 1779 3486
31 1284 1395 2679 1734 1853 3587 1811 1896 3707
1230 1307 2537 1671 1790 3461 1874 1970 3844

32
1266 1256 2522 1585 1703 3288 1868 1973 3841
33
34 1358 1229 2587 1488 1601 3089 1815 1928 3743
35 1439 1200 2639 1389 1497 2886 1770 1887 3657
36 1524 1167 2691 1279 1388 2667 1727 1844 3571
37 1582 1157 2739 1225 1300 2525 1665 1781 3446
38 1595 1177 2772 1260 1248 2508 1579 1694 3273
1574 1215 2789 1351 1222 2573 1481 1592 3073

39
1560 1254 2814 1431 1192 2623 1383 1488 2871
40
41 1550 1300 2850 1515 1158 2673 1272 1378 2650
42 1513 1314 2827 1572 1147 2719 1217 1290 2507
43 1439 1272 2711 1584 1166 2750 1252 1238 2490
44 1342 1195 2537 1562 1203 2765 1341 1210 2551
45 1244 1125 2369 1547 1239 2786 1420 1179 2599
1138 1051 2189 1536 1284 2820 1502 1146 2648

46
1058 995 2053 1498 1295 2793 1558 1133 2691
47
48 1025 971 1996 1423 1252 2675 1568 1150 2718
49 1022 966 1988 1326 1175 2501 1545 1183 2728
50 1011 956 1967 1228 1104 2332 1528 1216 2744
51 1002 943 1945 1121 1028 2149 1514 1258 2772
984 929 1913 1041 970 2011 1474 1266 2740

52
948 911 1859 1006 944 1950 1399 1221 2620
53

Year 2026 2031 2036
901 890 1791 1000 937 1937 1301 1142 2443
54
55 858 870 1728 987 923 1910 1202 1069 2271
56 818 852 1670 976 908 1884 1094 992 2086
57 775 825 1600 956 891 1847 1012 932 1944
58 728 783 1511 918 869 1787 975 902 1877
681 731 1412 868 843 1711 965 890 1855

59
633 680 1313 823 819 1642 950 873 1823
60
583 626 1209 780 798 1578 935 853 1788
61
62 543 582 1125 735 767 1502 911 832 1743
63 520 557 1077 687 722 1409 870 805 1675
64 507 544 1051 639 669 1308 817 774 1591
65 493 528 1021 590 617 1207 769 745 1514
484 516 1000 539 562 1101 723 718 1441

66
461 492 953 497 517 1014 676 684 1360
67
68 416 446 862 471 488 959 626 637 1263
69 357 389 746 453 469 922 576 584 1160
70 303 336 639 436 450 886 527 532 1059
71 247 283 530 423 435 858 478 481 959
72 209 244 453 399 409 808 435 435 870
202 231 433 353 364 717 401 399 800

73
213 234 447 295 308 603 373 371 744
74
75 219 234 453 247 262 509 346 343 689
76 222 232 454 208 223 431 322 318 640
77 226 231 457 175 191 366 300 296 596
78 226 229 455 152 168 320 281 277 558
79 223 225 448 140 156 296 265 262 527
769 864 1633 1110 1150 2260 1151 1196 2347

80+

Year 2041 2046 2051
1347 1408 2755 1334 1391 2725 1288 1347 2635
0
1 1348 1412 2760 1326 1387 2713 1286 1346 2632
2 1346 1412 2758 1319 1384 2703 1284 1346 2630
3 1343 1410 2753 1315 1382 2697 1284 1347 2631
4 1339 1406 2745 1312 1380 2692 1285 1349 2634
1335 1401 2736 1310 1380 2690 1286 1352 2638

5
1331 1396 2727 1310 1380 2690 1288 1355 2643
6
1327 1392 2719 1311 1380 2691 1291 1359 2650
7
8 1325 1388 2713 1313 1382 2695 1294 1363 2657
9 1325 1387 2712 1315 1383 2698 1298 1367 2665
10 1326 1386 2712 1320 1386 2706 1302 1372 2674
11 1325 1384 2709 1327 1392 2719 1307 1377 2684
1335 1393 2728 1331 1395 2726 1311 1381 2692

12
1360 1421 2781 1330 1393 2723 1314 1383 2697
13
14 1395 1459 2854 1328 1389 2717 1316 1384 2700
15 1428 1495 2923 1326 1386 2712 1320 1386 2706
16 1460 1530 2990 1324 1382 2706 1326 1391 2717
17 1488 1560 3048 1333 1391 2724 1329 1392 2721
18 1506 1581 3087 1358 1418 2776 1328 1390 2718
1518 1593 3111 1393 1457 2850 1326 1387 2713

19
1530 1607 3137 1426 1493 2919 1325 1384 2709
20
21 1544 1622 3166 1458 1528 2986 1322 1381 2703
22 1543 1621 3164 1485 1558 3043 1331 1389 2720
23 1520 1598 3118 1504 1578 3082 1356 1416 2772
24 1484 1561 3045 1516 1591 3107 1391 1454 2845
25 1451 1527 2978 1527 1604 3131 1424 1490 2914
1420 1497 2917 1542 1619 3161 1456 1525 2981

26

Year 2041 2046 2051
1397 1471 2868 1540 1618 3158 1483 1555 3038
27
28 1388 1455 2843 1517 1594 3111 1502 1575 3077
29 1391 1448 2839 1481 1557 3038 1513 1588 3101
30 1391 1440 2831 1448 1524 2972 1525 1600 3125
31 1385 1424 2809 1417 1493 2910 1539 1615 3154
1413 1449 2862 1394 1468 2862 1537 1614 3151

32
1492 1536 3028 1385 1451 2836 1514 1591 3105
33
1601 1659 3260 1387 1444 2831 1478 1553 3031
34
35 1701 1773 3474 1388 1436 2824 1445 1520 2965
36 1806 1889 3695 1381 1420 2801 1413 1489 2902
37 1867 1962 3829 1409 1444 2853 1390 1463 2853
38 1861 1965 3826 1487 1531 3018 1380 1446 2826
1808 1920 3728 1595 1652 3247 1383 1439 2822

39
1762 1878 3640 1695 1765 3460 1383 1430 2813
40
41 1719 1834 3553 1798 1880 3678 1376 1413 2789
42 1656 1770 3426 1858 1951 3809 1403 1437 2840
43 1570 1682 3252 1851 1953 3804 1480 1522 3002
44 1472 1580 3052 1798 1906 3704 1586 1642 3228
45 1373 1476 2849 1751 1863 3614 1685 1752 3437
1263 1365 2628 1706 1818 3524 1786 1865 3651

46
1207 1276 2483 1643 1752 3395 1846 1935 3781
47
48 1240 1223 2463 1556 1664 3220 1837 1934 3771
49 1327 1194 2521 1459 1561 3020 1782 1885 3667
50 1404 1162 2566 1360 1455 2815 1734 1839 3573
51 1483 1127 2610 1248 1344 2592 1688 1791 3479
52 1537 1112 2649 1192 1253 2445 1623 1724 3347
1543 1125 2668 1221 1198 2419 1535 1633 3168

53

Year 2041 2046 2051
54 1517 1153 2670 1305 1167 2472 1438 1529 2967
55 1497 1182 2679 1378 1133 2511 1338 1422 2760
56 1480 1219 2699 1453 1096 2549 1226 1309 2535
57 1437 1223 2660 1502 1077 2579 1167 1216 2383
58 1360 1175 2535 1504 1085 2589 1192 1158 2350
1261 1094 2355 1473 1106 2579 1269 1124 2393

59
1161 1019 2180 1448 1128 2576 1336 1087 2423
60
61 1052 940 1992 1425 1157 2582 1405 1047 2452
62 968 876 1844 1378 1156 2534 1448 1023 2471
63 926 842 1768 1298 1104 2402 1443 1023 2466
64 912 825 1737 1198 1022 2220 1404 1035 2439
65 891 802 1693 1096 944 2040 1371 1048 2419
872 778 1650 986 863 1849 1341 1067 2408

66
843 752 1595 899 796 1695 1288 1058 2346
67
68 798 720 1518 853 756 1609 1205 1003 2208
69 742 684 1426 831 734 1565 1103 919 2022
70 691 651 1342 805 708 1513 1002 842 1844
71 644 622 1266 784 683 1467 895 764 1659
72 594 584 1178 750 651 1401 806 695 1501
539 533 1072 695 609 1304 745 644 1389

73
483 475 958 627 560 1187 705 605 1310
74
75 432 423 855 569 518 1087 664 566 1230
76 387 377 764 519 480 999 627 532 1159
77 348 338 686 474 447 921 597 506 1103
78 318 306 624 436 419 855 574 487 1061
297 285 582 407 398 805 557 477 1034

79
1610 1596 3206 2052 1980 4032 2766 2586 5352
80+

Year 2056 2061
Age Female Male Total Female Male Total
1265 1320 2585 1223 1277 2500
0
1 1258 1316 2574 1223 1278 2501
2 1254 1313 2567 1223 1280 2503
3 1252 1313 2565 1224 1282 2506
4 1252 1314 2566 1225 1285 2510
1254 1317 2571 1228 1289 2517

5
1257 1321 2578 1231 1293 2524
6
1261 1326 2587 1235 1298 2533
7
8 1266 1332 2598 1239 1303 2542
9 1272 1339 2611 1244 1308 2552
10 1278 1345 2623 1249 1314 2563
11 1286 1353 2639 1255 1319 2574
1292 1359 2651 1260 1326 2586

12
1296 1364 2660 1266 1332 2598
13
14 1299 1368 2667 1273 1339 2612
15 1303 1372 2675 1279 1345 2624
16 1306 1376 2682 1285 1352 2637
17 1309 1379 2688 1290 1358 2648
18 1312 1381 2693 1295 1363 2658
1315 1383 2698 1298 1367 2665

19
1319 1385 2704 1301 1371 2672
20
21 1324 1389 2713 1305 1374 2679
22 1327 1391 2718 1308 1377 2685
23 1327 1389 2716 1311 1380 2691
24 1324 1385 2709 1314 1381 2695
25 1323 1383 2706 1317 1383 2700
1321 1379 2700 1323 1387 2710

26

Year 2056 2061
1329 1387 2716 1326 1389 2715
27
28 1354 1414 2768 1325 1387 2712
29 1390 1452 2842 1323 1383 2706
30 1422 1488 2910 1322 1381 2703
31 1454 1523 2977 1319 1377 2696
1481 1552 3033 1327 1385 2712

32
1499 1572 3071 1352 1411 2763
33
1510 1584 3094 1387 1450 2837
34
35 1522 1597 3119 1420 1485 2905
36 1535 1611 3146 1451 1520 2971
37 1534 1610 3144 1478 1549 3027
38 1510 1586 3096 1496 1568 3064
1474 1549 3023 1507 1580 3087

39
1440 1515 2955 1518 1592 3110
40
41 1409 1483 2892 1531 1606 3137
42 1385 1457 2842 1529 1604 3133
43 1375 1440 2815 1505 1580 3085
44 1377 1432 2809 1468 1542 3010
45 1377 1422 2799 1434 1507 2941
1369 1405 2774 1402 1475 2877

46
1395 1427 2822 1378 1447 2825
47
48 1471 1510 2981 1367 1429 2796
49 1575 1626 3201 1368 1420 2788
50 1671 1734 3405 1367 1409 2776
51 1771 1843 3614 1359 1391 2750
52 1828 1909 3737 1383 1411 2794
1817 1906 3723 1456 1489 2945

53

Year 2056 2061
1760 1853 3613 1556 1600 3156
54
55 1709 1804 3513 1649 1703 3352
56 1660 1752 3412 1745 1807 3552
57 1593 1681 3274 1799 1868 3667
58 1505 1588 3093 1785 1859 3644
1407 1483 2890 1725 1801 3526

59
1306 1373 2679 1670 1746 3416
60
1193 1258 2451 1617 1689 3306
61
62 1130 1162 2292 1546 1613 3159
63 1149 1101 2250 1456 1518 2974
64 1217 1064 2281 1357 1411 2768
65 1276 1023 2299 1255 1299 2554
1337 979 2316 1141 1181 2322

66
1370 950 2320 1074 1083 2157
67
68 1355 941 2296 1082 1018 2100
69 1307 942 2249 1137 977 2114
70 1267 946 2213 1186 934 2120
71 1233 961 2194 1244 895 2139
72 1173 944 2117 1265 861 2126
1076 875 1951 1223 827 2050

73
959 777 1736 1141 797 1938
74
75 854 695 1549 1076 773 1849
76 762 627 1389 1021 756 1777
77 683 568 1251 969 745 1714
78 623 525 1148 925 739 1664
79 589 502 1091 893 739 1632
3712 3229 6941 4670 3898 8568

80+

Appendix 6: Baseline and projected population for medium variant, single year-single age,
females, Bangladesh (in thousands)
Age Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0 1266 1360 1453 1547 1641 1724 1719 1714
1 1436 1459 1483 1506 1529 1552 1571 1589
2 1574 1545 1516 1487 1458 1435 1467 1499
3 1682 1617 1553 1488 1423 1369 1404 1440
4 1762 1676 1590 1504 1418 1344 1376 1408
5 1816 1722 1627 1533 1439 1356 1378 1400
6 1848 1756 1664 1571 1479 1397 1404 1411
7 1858 1777 1695 1614 1532 1458 1448 1439
8 1851 1787 1723 1659 1595 1535 1507 1479
9 1826 1785 1743 1702 1660 1618 1572 1527
10 1792 1777 1763 1748 1733 1713 1648 1582
11 1753 1769 1784 1800 1815 1820 1732 1643
12 1694 1735 1776 1817 1858 1885 1790 1694
13 1607 1665 1723 1780 1838 1882 1804 1726
14 1508 1575 1642 1709 1776 1832 1787 1742
15 1408 1486 1564 1642 1721 1790 1775 1760
16 1297 1389 1481 1574 1666 1751 1766 1782
17 1244 1335 1425 1516 1606 1692 1733 1774
18 1281 1346 1412 1477 1542 1607 1664 1722
19 1374 1400 1427 1453 1479 1510 1577 1644
20 1458 1447 1436 1425 1414 1412 1490 1568
21 1544 1493 1442 1390 1339 1302 1394 1486
22 1604 1530 1455 1381 1306 1248 1338 1429
23 1618 1548 1478 1409 1339 1283 1348 1413
24 1599 1552 1505 1458 1411 1372 1398 1424
25 1587 1559 1532 1504 1477 1451 1440 1429
26 1578 1570 1562 1554 1545 1533 1482 1431
27 1542 1553 1565 1576 1588 1591 1517 1442
28 1468 1497 1526 1556 1585 1604 1535 1465
29 1371 1416 1461 1506 1551 1587 1541 1494
30 1273 1335 1398 1460 1523 1576 1549 1522
31 1166 1249 1331 1414 1497 1570 1562 1554
32 1088 1179 1270 1361 1452 1535 1547 1558
33 1057 1139 1222 1304 1387 1464 1493 1522
34 1055 1118 1181 1244 1307 1368 1413 1458
35 1048 1092 1137 1181 1226 1272 1334 1397
36 1042 1066 1090 1114 1138 1167 1249 1332
37 1026 1037 1048 1060 1071 1090 1181 1271
38 993 1004 1016 1027 1039 1057 1139 1221
39 948 968 988 1009 1029 1053 1116 1179
40 908 935 961 988 1015 1043 1088 1132

Age Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
41 871 904 937 970 1003 1035 1059 1083
42 830 868 906 944 983 1018 1029 1040
43 786 826 866 907 947 984 996 1007
44 741 781 821 861 901 939 959 980
45 695 736 777 819 860 900 926 953
46 647 690 734 777 820 862 895 928
47 610 653 695 738 781 823 861 898
48 594 631 667 704 741 778 818 858
49 588 617 646 674 703 733 773 812
50 583 603 624 644 665 687 728 768
51 583 593 604 614 625 638 681 724
52 565 572 578 585 591 601 643 685
53 517 530 542 555 568 583 619 655
54 452 476 501 525 550 575 603 631
55 391 426 462 497 532 566 586 606
56 325 374 422 471 519 564 574 585
57 288 340 392 445 497 545 551 558
58 298 338 379 419 460 497 509 522
59 337 356 376 395 415 434 458 481
60 371 371 371 372 372 375 409 442
61 412 391 369 348 326 312 357 403
62 424 393 361 330 298 275 324 373
63 389 366 343 320 297 280 318 356
64 325 322 318 315 312 311 330 348
65 268 282 296 310 324 337 338 340
66 206 240 273 307 341 369 351 333
67 168 211 255 298 341 377 349 322
68 168 205 241 278 314 345 324 303
69 192 211 231 250 270 287 283 279
70 212 216 221 225 230 235 247 258
71 236 225 213 202 190 183 211 239
72 241 221 201 180 160 146 182 219
73 211 195 180 164 149 138 170 201
74 162 159 156 153 150 149 166 184
75 124 130 136 142 148 154 161 168
76 95 108 120 133 146 157 156 155
77 72 90 108 126 145 160 152 143
78 58 80 101 123 145 163 149 135
79 55 77 99 122 144 162 146 129
80+ 845 799 754 708 662 624 659 693

Age Year
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
0 1709 1704 1690 1642 1593 1545 1496
1 1608 1627 1637 1611 1585 1559 1533
2 1531 1563 1586 1579 1571 1563 1555
3 1475 1511 1540 1547 1553 1559 1566
4 1440 1472 1500 1516 1532 1549 1565
5 1422 1444 1465 1488 1510 1533 1555
6 1419 1426 1437 1463 1488 1514 1539
7 1429 1420 1417 1442 1468 1493 1518
8 1451 1423 1405 1427 1450 1472 1495
9 1481 1435 1402 1419 1437 1454 1472
10 1517 1451 1401 1413 1425 1436 1448
11 1555 1467 1397 1404 1410 1416 1423
12 1599 1503 1426 1422 1418 1413 1409
13 1648 1570 1503 1481 1458 1436 1413
14 1697 1653 1608 1564 1519 1475 1430
15 1745 1731 1706 1641 1576 1511 1446
16 1797 1813 1807 1719 1631 1544 1456
17 1815 1856 1870 1775 1680 1585 1490
18 1779 1837 1867 1790 1712 1635 1557
19 1711 1777 1822 1778 1733 1689 1644
20 1646 1724 1783 1769 1754 1740 1725
21 1578 1670 1747 1763 1779 1794 1810
22 1519 1610 1690 1731 1772 1813 1854
23 1478 1544 1608 1665 1723 1780 1838
24 1451 1477 1511 1578 1645 1712 1779
25 1418 1408 1415 1493 1571 1648 1726
26 1380 1329 1306 1398 1490 1583 1675
27 1368 1294 1253 1343 1433 1524 1614
28 1396 1327 1284 1349 1415 1480 1545
29 1448 1401 1369 1396 1422 1448 1475
30 1495 1468 1444 1433 1423 1412 1401
31 1546 1538 1521 1471 1420 1370 1319
32 1570 1582 1576 1503 1429 1355 1282
33 1551 1581 1590 1521 1452 1383 1314
34 1503 1548 1575 1529 1483 1436 1390
35 1459 1521 1566 1539 1512 1485 1458
36 1414 1496 1560 1553 1545 1537 1529
37 1362 1453 1527 1539 1551 1562 1574
38 1303 1385 1457 1486 1516 1545 1574
39 1242 1305 1364 1409 1453 1498 1543
40 1177 1221 1269 1331 1393 1455 1517
41 1107 1131 1166 1248 1330 1411 1493
42 1051 1062 1089 1179 1269 1360 1450
43 1018 1030 1055 1137 1219 1300 1382
44 1000 1021 1049 1112 1174 1236 1298

Age Year
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
45 980 1007 1037 1081 1125 1169 1213
46 961 994 1025 1049 1073 1097 1121
47 936 974 1006 1017 1028 1039 1050
48 897 937 971 983 994 1006 1017
49 852 891 927 947 967 988 1008
50 809 850 887 914 940 966 993
51 766 809 849 882 914 947 979
52 727 769 809 847 884 921 958
53 692 728 765 804 843 882 921
54 659 687 718 757 796 835 874
55 627 647 671 711 751 790 830
56 595 606 622 664 706 747 789
57 564 571 584 625 665 706 747
58 534 546 563 598 633 668 703
59 504 527 552 579 607 634 662
60 476 509 540 560 580 599 619
61 449 494 533 544 554 565 576
62 422 471 511 518 525 532 538
63 394 432 465 477 489 500 512
64 367 386 405 427 449 470 492
65 341 342 349 380 410 441 472
66 315 297 290 331 373 414 455
67 294 266 253 297 341 386 430
68 282 262 252 287 322 357 392
69 276 272 273 291 309 326 344
70 269 281 291 293 296 298 301
71 267 295 315 301 286 272 257
72 256 293 317 294 271 248 225
73 232 264 285 268 250 232 214
74 201 219 232 228 224 220 216
75 175 182 189 196 202 208 215
76 154 153 155 169 183 198 212
77 135 127 124 146 168 189 211
78 121 107 101 128 154 181 207
79 112 95 88 117 145 174 203
80+ 728 762 789 785 781 776 772

Appendix 7: Baseline and projected population for medium variant, single year-single age,
males, Bangladesh (in thousands)
Age Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0 1293 1404 1515 1626 1737 1835 1819 1802
1 1470 1503 1537 1570 1603 1635 1651 1667
2 1616 1591 1567 1542 1517 1499 1534 1569
3 1735 1669 1604 1538 1473 1418 1461 1504
4 1826 1735 1645 1554 1464 1386 1427 1468
5 1893 1791 1689 1586 1484 1395 1426 1458
6 1937 1835 1733 1630 1528 1438 1453 1469
7 1959 1866 1774 1681 1588 1505 1501 1496
8 1961 1885 1810 1734 1659 1588 1563 1538
9 1945 1892 1840 1787 1734 1682 1636 1589
10 1915 1891 1866 1842 1817 1788 1718 1648
11 1876 1884 1893 1901 1909 1907 1809 1712
12 1815 1852 1888 1925 1962 1984 1876 1768
13 1728 1784 1839 1895 1950 1991 1900 1809
14 1625 1692 1759 1826 1894 1948 1892 1836
15 1520 1600 1680 1761 1841 1911 1886 1862
16 1411 1505 1599 1693 1787 1873 1881 1890
17 1323 1422 1521 1621 1720 1813 1849 1886
18 1271 1363 1455 1547 1639 1728 1783 1838
19 1245 1322 1398 1475 1551 1627 1694 1761
20 1216 1277 1338 1400 1461 1524 1604 1684
21 1183 1229 1274 1320 1365 1415 1509 1603
22 1174 1203 1233 1262 1292 1328 1427 1526
23 1196 1210 1225 1239 1253 1275 1367 1459
24 1236 1237 1238 1238 1239 1248 1324 1400
25 1277 1264 1250 1237 1223 1217 1278 1339
26 1326 1296 1266 1236 1206 1184 1229 1274
27 1342 1307 1271 1236 1201 1172 1201 1231
28 1301 1279 1256 1234 1211 1192 1207 1221
29 1225 1226 1227 1229 1230 1231 1232 1233
30 1156 1179 1203 1226 1250 1270 1256 1243
31 1083 1131 1180 1228 1276 1317 1287 1257
32 1028 1091 1153 1216 1279 1332 1297 1262
33 1006 1065 1124 1182 1241 1292 1270 1247
34 1006 1049 1093 1136 1179 1218 1219 1221
35 999 1029 1060 1090 1121 1150 1174 1197
36 990 1008 1025 1043 1060 1081 1129 1177
37 980 988 997 1005 1013 1027 1089 1152
38 968 974 981 987 993 1005 1063 1122
39 952 961 970 980 989 1001 1045 1088
40 938 949 959 970 980 993 1023 1054

Age Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
41 927 938 949 959 970 982 999 1017
42 905 918 932 945 958 971 979 987
43 866 884 903 921 939 957 963 969
44 818 843 867 892 917 940 949 959
45 770 801 833 864 896 925 936 946
46 719 758 798 837 877 913 924 935
47 680 723 765 808 851 890 904 917
48 664 702 740 777 815 851 869 888
49 661 689 718 746 774 802 827 851
50 656 676 695 715 734 755 786 817
51 656 665 674 683 692 704 742 781
52 638 642 647 651 656 664 706 747
53 591 601 612 622 633 646 683 720
54 527 549 571 594 616 639 667 695
55 466 499 533 566 599 631 650 669
56 401 447 492 538 584 626 635 644
57 363 413 462 512 561 606 611 616
58 369 408 447 485 524 560 570 580
59 402 421 440 460 479 498 519 540
60 430 431 432 434 435 439 470 501
61 464 445 427 408 390 377 419 462
62 472 444 416 388 359 339 384 430
63 433 413 393 373 353 339 375 410
64 368 366 365 363 361 362 380 399
65 308 323 338 353 368 381 384 386
66 244 277 311 344 378 406 391 376
67 204 246 288 331 373 409 385 361
68 205 240 274 309 344 373 356 338
69 230 247 265 282 299 315 313 311
70 251 253 255 257 259 262 274 286
71 276 262 247 233 219 209 236 263
72 281 258 235 212 189 171 206 241
73 249 231 213 195 176 163 192 221
74 196 191 186 181 176 174 189 204
75 154 159 163 168 173 178 183 188
76 121 133 145 158 170 181 178 175
77 93 112 130 149 167 183 173 163
78 74 97 120 143 165 184 169 154
79 67 91 115 139 163 183 166 148
80+ 832 803 774 744 715 693 735 776

Age Year
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
0 1785 1768 1746 1700 1654 1608 1562
1 1683 1699 1707 1681 1655 1630 1604
2 1604 1640 1666 1657 1648 1639 1629
3 1547 1591 1626 1630 1634 1638 1642
4 1509 1550 1586 1600 1614 1629 1643
5 1489 1520 1549 1570 1592 1613 1634
6 1484 1500 1517 1542 1568 1593 1618
7 1492 1488 1490 1517 1544 1571 1597
8 1513 1487 1472 1497 1523 1548 1573
9 1542 1495 1462 1484 1505 1527 1548
10 1577 1507 1454 1471 1488 1505 1522
11 1614 1516 1441 1455 1469 1482 1496
12 1660 1552 1467 1470 1473 1476 1480
13 1718 1628 1551 1533 1515 1497 1479
14 1780 1724 1670 1625 1580 1535 1490
15 1838 1813 1780 1710 1640 1570 1500
16 1898 1906 1893 1796 1698 1601 1503
17 1922 1959 1966 1859 1751 1644 1536
18 1893 1949 1975 1885 1794 1704 1613
19 1828 1895 1938 1882 1826 1769 1713
20 1764 1844 1903 1879 1855 1831 1807
21 1697 1791 1868 1876 1885 1893 1902
22 1625 1724 1810 1847 1884 1921 1957
23 1551 1643 1727 1782 1838 1893 1948
24 1477 1553 1627 1695 1762 1829 1896
25 1400 1461 1526 1606 1686 1766 1846
26 1319 1365 1420 1513 1607 1701 1794
27 1260 1289 1333 1432 1530 1629 1728
28 1235 1250 1279 1371 1463 1554 1646
29 1234 1234 1250 1326 1402 1479 1555
30 1230 1217 1218 1279 1340 1401 1461
31 1227 1197 1182 1227 1273 1318 1363
32 1227 1192 1170 1199 1228 1257 1287
33 1225 1203 1188 1202 1217 1231 1246
34 1222 1223 1224 1225 1226 1227 1228
35 1221 1244 1260 1248 1235 1222 1209
36 1225 1273 1306 1276 1247 1217 1188
37 1214 1276 1319 1285 1250 1216 1181
38 1180 1238 1281 1259 1237 1214 1192
39 1131 1174 1209 1210 1212 1213 1214
40 1084 1115 1144 1167 1191 1214 1238
41 1034 1052 1076 1123 1171 1219 1267
42 995 1003 1022 1084 1146 1209 1271
43 976 982 999 1057 1115 1173 1231
44 968 977 994 1036 1079 1122 1165

Age Year Age Year Age Year Age Year
2019 2019 2019 2019
45 957 968 982 1012 1043 1073 1104
46 946 957 969 987 1004 1022 1039
47 930 943 956 964 972 981 989
48 906 924 940 947 953 960 966
49 876 900 922 931 941 950 959
50 848 878 905 916 927 938 948
51 819 857 890 901 913 924 935
52 789 831 867 880 893 906 920
53 757 793 827 845 863 880 898
54 723 751 778 802 826 849 873
55 688 708 729 759 789 819 849
56 653 663 677 715 752 789 826
57 621 625 637 677 717 757 797
58 590 600 615 651 687 722 758
59 561 581 603 631 658 685 712
60 532 562 591 610 629 648 667
61 504 546 582 591 601 610 619
62 476 521 559 564 569 574 579
63 446 482 513 522 532 541 550
64 418 436 455 474 493 512 531
65 389 391 399 426 454 481 509
66 361 345 340 378 415 453 490
67 337 313 302 342 383 423 464
68 321 303 295 327 359 392 424
69 309 307 308 326 343 360 377
70 298 310 320 323 327 330 334
71 290 317 337 325 314 302 291
72 276 310 334 315 296 277 257
73 250 280 300 285 271 256 241
74 219 235 246 244 241 239 236
75 193 198 203 210 216 223 229
76 172 168 169 182 196 209 223
77 152 142 138 158 178 197 217
78 139 123 116 140 164 188 212
79 131 113 104 130 156 181 207
80+ 818 860 892 886 880 874 868

Appendix 8: Baseline and projected total population for medium variant, single year-single
age, Bangladesh (in thousands)
Age Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
0 2586 2808 3030 3252 3474 3670 3638 3604
1 2940 3006 3074 3140 3206 3270 3302 3334
2 3232 3182 3134 3084 3034 2998 3068 3138
3 3470 3338 3208 3076 2946 2836 2922 3008
4 3652 3470 3290 3108 2928 2772 2854 2936
5 3786 3582 3378 3172 2968 2790 2852 2916
6 3874 3670 3466 3260 3056 2876 2906 2938
7 3918 3732 3548 3362 3176 3010 3002 2992
8 3922 3770 3620 3468 3318 3176 3126 3076
9 3890 3784 3680 3574 3468 3364 3272 3178
10 3830 3782 3732 3684 3634 3576 3436 3296
11 3752 3768 3786 3802 3818 3814 3618 3424
12 3630 3704 3776 3850 3924 3968 3752 3536
13 3456 3568 3678 3790 3900 3982 3800 3618
14 3250 3384 3518 3652 3788 3896 3784 3672
15 3040 3200 3360 3522 3682 3822 3772 3724
16 2822 3010 3198 3386 3574 3746 3762 3780
17 2646 2844 3042 3242 3440 3626 3698 3772
18 2542 2726 2910 3094 3278 3456 3566 3676
19 2490 2644 2796 2950 3102 3254 3388 3522
20 2432 2554 2676 2800 2922 3048 3208 3368
21 2366 2458 2548 2640 2730 2830 3018 3206
22 2348 2406 2466 2524 2584 2656 2854 3052
23 2392 2420 2450 2478 2506 2550 2734 2918
24 2472 2474 2476 2476 2478 2496 2648 2800
25 2554 2528 2500 2474 2446 2434 2556 2678
26 2652 2592 2532 2472 2412 2368 2458 2548
27 2684 2614 2542 2472 2402 2344 2402 2462
28 2602 2558 2512 2468 2422 2384 2414 2442
29 2450 2452 2454 2458 2460 2462 2464 2466
30 2312 2358 2406 2452 2500 2540 2512 2486
31 2166 2262 2360 2456 2552 2634 2574 2514
32 2056 2182 2306 2432 2558 2664 2594 2524
33 2012 2130 2248 2364 2482 2584 2540 2494
34 2012 2098 2186 2272 2358 2436 2438 2442
35 1998 2058 2120 2180 2242 2300 2348 2394
36 1980 2016 2050 2086 2120 2162 2258 2354
37 1960 1976 1994 2010 2026 2054 2178 2304
38 1936 1948 1962 1974 1986 2010 2126 2244
39 1904 1922 1940 1960 1978 2002 2090 2176
40 1876 1898 1918 1940 1960 1986 2046 2108

Age Year
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018
41 1854 1876 1898 1918 1940 1964 1998 2034
42 1810 1836 1864 1890 1916 1942 1958 1974
43 1732 1768 1806 1842 1878 1914 1926 1938
44 1636 1686 1734 1784 1834 1880 1898 1918
45 1540 1602 1666 1728 1792 1850 1872 1892
46 1438 1516 1596 1674 1754 1826 1848 1870
47 1360 1446 1530 1616 1702 1780 1808 1834
48 1328 1404 1480 1554 1630 1702 1738 1776
49 1322 1378 1436 1492 1548 1604 1654 1702
50 1312 1352 1390 1430 1468 1510 1572 1634
51 1312 1330 1348 1366 1384 1408 1484 1562
52 1276 1284 1294 1302 1312 1328 1412 1494
53 1182 1202 1224 1244 1266 1292 1366 1440
54 1054 1098 1142 1188 1232 1278 1334 1390
55 932 998 1066 1132 1198 1262 1300 1338
56 802 894 984 1076 1168 1252 1270 1288
57 726 826 924 1024 1122 1212 1222 1232
58 738 816 894 970 1048 1120 1140 1160
59 804 842 880 920 958 996 1038 1080
60 860 862 864 868 870 878 940 1002
61 928 890 854 816 780 754 838 924
62 944 888 832 776 718 678 768 860
63 866 826 786 746 706 678 750 820
64 736 732 730 726 722 724 760 798
65 616 646 676 706 736 762 768 772
66 488 554 622 688 756 812 782 752
67 408 492 576 662 746 818 770 722
68 410 480 548 618 688 746 712 676
69 460 494 530 564 598 630 626 622
70 502 506 510 514 518 524 548 572
71 552 524 494 466 438 418 472 526
72 562 516 470 424 378 342 412 482
73 498 462 426 390 352 326 384 442
74 392 382 372 362 352 348 378 408
75 308 318 326 336 346 356 366 376
76 242 266 290 316 340 362 356 350
77 186 224 260 298 334 366 346 326
78 148 194 240 286 330 368 338 308
79 134 182 230 278 326 366 332 296
80+ 1664 1606 1548 1488 1430 1386 1470 1552

Age Year
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
0 3570 3536 3492 3400 3308 3216 3124
1 3366 3398 3414 3362 3310 3260 3208
2 3208 3280 3332 3314 3296 3278 3258
3 3094 3182 3252 3260 3268 3276 3284
4 3018 3100 3172 3200 3228 3258 3286
5 2978 3040 3098 3140 3184 3226 3268
6 2968 3000 3034 3084 3136 3186 3236
7 2984 2976 2980 3034 3088 3142 3194
8 3026 2974 2944 2994 3046 3096 3146
9 3084 2990 2924 2968 3010 3054 3096
10 3154 3014 2908 2942 2976 3010 3044
11 3228 3032 2882 2910 2938 2964 2992
12 3320 3104 2934 2940 2946 2952 2960
13 3436 3256 3102 3066 3030 2994 2958
14 3560 3448 3340 3250 3160 3070 2980
15 3676 3626 3560 3420 3280 3140 3000
16 3796 3812 3786 3592 3396 3202 3006
17 3844 3918 3932 3718 3502 3288 3072
18 3786 3898 3950 3770 3588 3408 3226
19 3656 3790 3876 3764 3652 3538 3426
20 3528 3688 3806 3758 3710 3662 3614
21 3394 3582 3736 3752 3770 3786 3804
22 3250 3448 3620 3694 3768 3842 3914
23 3102 3286 3454 3564 3676 3786 3896
24 2954 3106 3254 3390 3524 3658 3792
25 2800 2922 3052 3212 3372 3532 3692
26 2638 2730 2840 3026 3214 3402 3588
27 2520 2578 2666 2864 3060 3258 3456
28 2470 2500 2558 2742 2926 3108 3292
29 2468 2468 2500 2652 2804 2958 3110
30 2460 2434 2436 2558 2680 2802 2922
31 2454 2394 2364 2454 2546 2636 2726
32 2454 2384 2340 2398 2456 2514 2574
33 2450 2406 2376 2404 2434 2462 2492
34 2444 2446 2448 2450 2452 2454 2456
35 2442 2488 2520 2496 2470 2444 2418
36 2450 2546 2612 2552 2494 2434 2376
37 2428 2552 2638 2570 2500 2432 2362
38 2360 2476 2562 2518 2474 2428 2384
39 2262 2348 2418 2420 2424 2426 2428
40 2168 2230 2288 2334 2382 2428 2476

Age Year
2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025
41 2068 2104 2152 2246 2342 2438 2534
42 1990 2006 2044 2168 2292 2418 2542
43 1952 1964 1998 2114 2230 2346 2462
44 1936 1954 1988 2072 2158 2244 2330
45 1914 1936 1964 2024 2086 2146 2208
46 1892 1914 1938 1974 2008 2044 2078
47 1860 1886 1912 1928 1944 1962 1978
48 1812 1848 1880 1894 1906 1920 1932
49 1752 1800 1844 1862 1882 1900 1918
50 1696 1756 1810 1832 1854 1876 1896
51 1638 1714 1780 1802 1826 1848 1870
52 1578 1662 1734 1760 1786 1812 1840
53 1514 1586 1654 1690 1726 1760 1796
54 1446 1502 1556 1604 1652 1698 1746
55 1376 1416 1458 1518 1578 1638 1698
56 1306 1326 1354 1430 1504 1578 1652
57 1242 1250 1274 1354 1434 1514 1594
58 1180 1200 1230 1302 1374 1444 1516
59 1122 1162 1206 1262 1316 1370 1424
60 1064 1124 1182 1220 1258 1296 1334
61 1008 1092 1164 1182 1202 1220 1238
62 952 1042 1118 1128 1138 1148 1158
63 892 964 1026 1044 1064 1082 1100
64 836 872 910 948 986 1024 1062
65 778 782 798 852 908 962 1018
66 722 690 680 756 830 906 980
67 674 626 604 684 766 846 928
68 642 606 590 654 718 784 848
69 618 614 616 652 686 720 754
70 596 620 640 646 654 660 668
71 580 634 674 650 628 604 582
72 552 620 668 630 592 554 514
73 500 560 600 570 542 512 482
74 438 470 492 488 482 478 472
75 386 396 406 420 432 446 458
76 344 336 338 364 392 418 446
77 304 284 276 316 356 394 434
78 278 246 232 280 328 376 424
79 262 226 208 260 312 362 414
80+ 1636 1720 1784 1772 1760 1748 1736

Appendix 9: TFR series of SAARC countries
A comparative chart is illustrated below to show the trend analysis of TFR, in historical point of view
Bangladesh has the second highest TFR from its early stage compare to its neighboring countries,
After the years 1980-85, its TFR falls down drastically and experience a stagnant fertility rate for few
years, in recent years TFR starts falling again and positioned as the second lowest country among
SAARC.

Appendix-10
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Population projection of bangladesh dynamics and trends 2011-2061
POPULATION PROJECTION OF BANGLADESH
Dynamics and Trends
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Population projection of bangladesh dynamics and trends 2011-2061

POPULATION PROJECTION OF BANGLADESH

Population Projection Master File - Front Side - Date : 10.12.2015

POPULATION PROJECTION OF BANGLADESH:

BANGLADESH BUREAU OF STATISTICS (BBS)

Population Projection of Bangladesh / ii

Message of Honorable Minister, Ministry of Planning vii

3. ASSUMPTIONS IN RECENT POPULATIONS 11

4. POPULATION PROJECTION FOR THE PERIOD 2016-2061 16

4.4. Population Projection with International Migration 33

Table 3.3: TFR and projected population in Islam (2000) 13

Table 4.1: Assumed TFR and life expectancy 18

Table 4.2: Proportionate Fertility Rate (PFR) for all Scenarios 18

Dhaka AHM Mustafa Kamal, FCA, MP

Dhaka M.A. Mannan, MP

Dhaka Kaniz Fatema ndc

The Monograph on ‘Population Projection of Bangladesh: Dynamics and Trends’ is a special

Dhaka Mohammad Abdul Wazed

Dhaka Argentina Matavel Piccin

Dhaka Md. Mashud Alam

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 1

1.1 Population Projections of Bangladesh: A Short Review

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 2

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 3

1.2 Population Policy of Bangladesh

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 4

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 5

A projection may be conceptualized as the numerical outcome of a particular set of

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 6

2.2 Steps of the Cohort Component Method

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 7

since, 5Pw‐5Pw+=5Lw‐5Tw for stationary population.

Getting Population in Age Group 0-4 at Time t+5

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 8

Step 4: Adding Net Migrants

2.3 Limitations of this Projection

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 9

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 10

3.1 Projection by UNFPA

Year Assumption on TFR Assumption on Life Expectancy Total Population

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 11

3.2 Projection by El-Saharty et al. (2014)

Year Assumption on TFR Total Population

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 12

3.3 Projection by Islam (2000)

Table 3.3: TFR and projected population in Islam (2000)

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 13

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 14

3.5 Other Projections

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 15

4.1 Assumptions for Population Projection

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 16

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 17

Year Assumed TFR Projected Life Expectancy

Table 4.2: Proportionate Fertility Rate (PFR) for all Scenarios

Age Group 2011-31 2031-51 2051-61

Population Projection of Bangladesh / 18