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P.Richard Ebola: How a People's Science

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R.WALLACE: Big Farms Make Big Flue

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Coronavirus: Why are we catching more diseases from

animals?

By Prof Tim BentonChatham House, Emerging Risks team

31 January 2020

The world is grappling with the new coronavirus, which

has spread from China to at least 16 other countries,

including the UK.Outbreaks of new infectious diseases are

typically seen as a "one off".But the new virus - thought to

have stemmed from wildlife - highlights our risk from

animal-borne disease. This is likely to be more of a problem

in future as climate change and globalization alter the way

 20

animals and humans interact.

How can animals make people ill?

In the past 50 years, a host of infectious diseases have

spread rapidly after making the evolutionary jump from

animals to humans.

The HIV/Aids crisis of the 1980s originated from great

apes, the 2004-07 avian flu pandemic came from birds, and

pigs gave us the swine flu pandemic in 2009. More

recently, it was discovered severe acute respiratory

syndrome (Sars) came from bats, via civets, while bats

also gave us Ebola.

Humans have always caught diseases from animals. In fact,

most new infectious diseases come from wildlife.

But environmental change is speeding up this process,

while increased city living and international travel mean

when these diseases emerge, they can spread more

quickly.

Can people recover? And other questions "

Coronavirus: How worried should we be? Confirmed "

 21

coronavirus cases in all China regions

How can diseases jump species?

Most animals carry a range of pathogens - bacteria and

viruses that can cause disease.The pathogen's evolutionary

survival depends on infecting new hosts - and jumping to

other species is one way to do this.

The new host's immune systems try to kill off pathogens,

meaning the two are locked in an eternal evolutionary

game of trying to find new ways to vanquish each other.

For example, about 10% of infected people died during

the 2003 Sars epidemic, compared with under 0.1% for a

"typical" flu epidemic.Environmental and climate change

are removing and altering animals' habitat, changing how

they live, where they live and who eats whom.The way

humans live has also changed - 55% of the global

population now lives in cities, up from 35% 50 years

ago.And these bigger cities provide new homes for wildlife

- rats, mice, raccoons, squirrels, foxes, birds, jackals,

monkeys - which can live in the green spaces such as parks

 22

and gardens, off the waste humans leave behind.

Often, wildlife species are more successful in cities than in

the wild because of the plentiful food supply, making

urban spaces a melting pot for evolving diseases.

Who is most at risk?

1.New diseases, in a new host, are often more

dangerous, which is why any emerging disease is

concerning.

2.Some groups are more vulnerable to catching these

diseases than others.

3.Poorer city-dwellers are more likely to work in

cleaning and sanitation, boosting their chances of

encountering sources and carriers of disease.

4.They may also have weaker immune systems because

of poor nutrition and exposure to poor air or unsanitary

conditions. And if they fall ill, they may not be able to

afford medical care.

5.New infections can also spread rapidly in big cities as .

people are packed so tightly - breathing the same air and

 23

touching the same surfaces.

6.In some cultures, people also use urban wildlife for

food - eating animals caught within the city or bushmeat

harvested from the surrounding area.

How do diseases change our behavior?

To date, almost 8,000 cases of the new coronavirus have

been confirmed, with 170 people thought to have died.

With countries taking steps to stem this outbreak, the

potential economic consequences are clear.

Travel bans are now in place and, even without them,

people are scared of interacting in case they catch the virus,

changing their behaviour. It becomes harder to cross

borders, seasonal migrant workers can't relocate and

supply chains become interrupted.

This is typical of an outbreak of this nature. In 2003, the

Sars epidemic cost the global economy an estimated

$40bn (£30.5bn) in six months. This was partly because of

the cost of treating people but also dips in economic

activity and movement of people.

 24

What can we do?

Societies and governments tend to treat each new infectious

disease as an independent crisis, rather than recognising

they are a symptom of how the world is changing.

The more we change the environment, the more likely we

are to disrupt ecosystems and provide opportunities for

disease to emerge.Only about 10% of the world's pathogens

have been documented, so more resources are needed to

identify the rest - and which animals are carrying them.

For example, how many rats are there in London and what

diseases do they carry?

Many city-dwellers value urban wildlife but we should also

recognise some animals carry potential harms.It makes

sense to keep track of which animals are newly arriving in

cities and whether people are killing or eating wildlife or

bringing it to markets from the surrounding area.

Improving sanitation, waste disposal and pest control are

ways to help stop these outbreaks emerging and spreading.

More widely, it is about changing the way our

 25

environments are managed and the way people interact

with them.

Pandemics are part of our future

Acknowledging new diseases are emerging and spreading

in this way puts us in a stronger position to fight new

pandemics, which are an inevitable part of our future.

A century ago, the Spanish flu pandemic infected about

half a billion people and killed 50-100 million people

worldwide.

Scientific advancement and huge investments in global

health mean such a disease would be better managed in

future.

However, the risk remains real and potentially catastrophic

- if something similar were to happen again, it would

reshape the world.

By the middle of the last century, some in the West claimed

infectious diseases were conquerable.

But as urbanisation and inequality grow and climate

change further disturbs our ecosystems, we must

 26

recognise emerging diseases as a growing risk.

________________________________________

About this piece

This analysis piece was commissioned by BBC News from an expert working

for an outside organisation.

Prof Tim Benton is research director of the Emerging Risks team at Chatham

House, where he leads the Energy, Environment and Resources programme.

Chatham House, the Royal Institute of International Affairs, describes itself as

an independent policy institute helping to build a sustainably secure,

prosperous and just world.

Link: https://www.bbc.com/news/health-51237225

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